A Major Defensive Overhaul Is Coming

[BillsImpossible]

The 2015 Buffalo Bills defense does not have the type of linebackers needed to run Rex's "complicated," 3-4 system.

Nigel Bradham and Preston Brown have been major disappointments so far.

Bradham will probably sign with another team that offers more $.

Preston Brown is having a bad year. Does he fit in Rex's defense? Is it all mental? His cap hit is low, and he's signed until 2017 so I think he probably stays. Maybe.

The secondary has gotten better in 2015 with the play of Gilmore and Darby, but the Bills defense desperately needs a safety, maybe two depending on the health of Aaron Williams.

Mario Williams is not going to restructure his contract next year. For the money he's making, he has not produced and I don't think he fits in the grand scheme of things. Time to move on and spend that cap money elsewhere.

Kyle Williams is near or at the end of his career with an $8 million cap hit in 2016. I hope he stays, but health and money are issues.

Those are 5 or maybe even 6 defensive starters that will likely be replaced next year, basically half of the entire starting lineup.

That's huge.

To top it all off, the Bills don't have a true 3-4 Nose Tackle to anchor the defense.

On a side note -----

If the Bills kept Schwartz, everything would be roses, right?

Go back to 2014. Remember that game against the Raiders on December 21st? Bills lost, 26 - 24 to a rookie quarterback.

Jim Schwartz had phenomenal defensive talent to work with, but it turned out to be the kind of system offensive coordinators quickly figured out.

Schwartz's system wasn't complex, to a fault because it was obviously not complicated to expose its weaknesses.

Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins beat the Bills on Thursday Night Football last year, 22-9. That was the beginning of the end for Jim Schwartz.

The Bills defense gave up a lot of big plays last year, and got torched in the same way Mike Pettine's 2013 defense got smoked.

How many "big plays" has the 2015 Buffalo Bills defense given up compared to the last two years?

[swiper]

Victor says no.

http://alfa.gifs-planet.com/new6/1474.mp4

[YardRat]

I wish all of the players that aren't here next season the best of luck and hope they don't ever have to play for a buffoon like Ryan and his staff for the rest of their careers.

As far as Schwartz, lol...if finishing in the top ten in ten of eleven major statistical categories (and 11th in the 11th) is getting 'smoked'...A)I'll take smoked every year, and B)Pettine's defense was 'charred', and Ryan's is already 'burnt to a crisp'.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

As far as Schwartz, lol...if finishing in the top ten in ten of eleven major statistical categories (and 11th in the 11th) is getting 'smoked'...A)I'll take smoked every year, and B)Pettine's defense was 'charred', and Ryan's is already 'burnt to a crisp'.

It's almost like BillsImpossible forgets that you can just look these things up whenever you want.

2013 Bills D: 14 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer
2014 Bills D: 4 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer
2015 Bills D: 11 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer, with 3 games remaining and Dez Bryant and Desean Jackson on the schedule.

2013 Bills D: 47 pass plays over 20 yards, 14 over 40 yards.
2014 Bills D: 36 pass plays over 20 yards, 8 over 40 yards.
2015 Bills: 49 pass plays over 20 yards, 9 over 40 yards.

Ryan's D has managed to get all of the downsides of a complicated blitzing defense without any of the positives like sacks and turnovers.

[BertSquirtgum]

Great!!!!!!!!!!!!! Not.

[YardRat]

I hate to repeat myself...well, actually in this case I really don't...

OK, here it is...originally it was posted to show the rankings for Schwartz vs Pettine (in parenthesis)...I've added this year for Rex, {in brackets}...

Points per game--4--(20)--{15}
Yards per game--4--(10)--{20}
Yards per point--3--(6)--{17}
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)--{22}
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)--{17}
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)--{22}
Rush yards per game--11--(28)--{14}
Passing yards per game--3--(4)--{23}
Sacks--1--(2)--{30}
Interceptions--6--(2)--{10}
QB rating--2--(3)--{10}

As you can see, not only has Ryan's defense regressed from Schwartz's level, he's actually made the defense worse than Pettine two seasons ago, with ZERO categories having a ranking higher than 10 (compared to Pettine's 5) and ranked worse than Pettine's D in 8 of 11 of the categories (the exceptions are points per game, fumbles recovered, and rush yards per game). Ryan vs Pettine is bad enough...Ryan vs Schwartz = no contest. Pettine = decent...Schwartz = dominant...Ryan = dismal and pathetic.

[X-Era]

I hate to repeat myself...well, actually in this case I really don't...

OK, here it is...originally it was posted to show the rankings for Schwartz vs Pettine (in parenthesis)...I've added this year for Rex, {in brackets}...

Points per game--4--(20)--{15}
Yards per game--4--(10)--{20}
Yards per point--3--(6)--{17}
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)--{22}
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)--{17}
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)--{22}
Rush yards per game--11--(28)--{14}
Passing yards per game--3--(4)--{23}
Sacks--1--(2)--{30}
Interceptions--6--(2)--{10}
QB rating--2--(3)--{10}

As you can see, not only has Ryan's defense regressed from Schwartz's level, he's actually made the defense worse than Pettine two seasons ago, with ZERO categories having a ranking higher than 10 (compared to Pettine's 5) and ranked worse than Pettine's D in 8 of 11 of the categories (the exceptions are points per game, fumbles recovered, and rush yards per game). Ryan vs Pettine is bad enough...Ryan vs Schwartz = no contest. Pettine = decent...Schwartz = dominant...Ryan = dismal and pathetic. This is actualls pretty simple:

1) Rex will be here next year
2) Schwartz will not come back
3) Pettine might be fired as HC from the Browns
4) Pettine and Rex have a past
5) Rex gets heavy pressure to can Thurman
6) Rex gets heavy pressure to add Pettine
7) Pettine shows Rex how to use the players on this team by slightly changing the scheme

Mario will be restructured, traded, or released. Whaley won't keep that cap figure as it is. No way.

Yes Whaley is back

I also think Clay will be restructured. The poison pill is next year in his contract and was put in to prevent the Fins from re-signing him. That's all over with now and we can split the money evenly over several years.

I'd very surprised if Kyle doesn't retire

I agree that we need another S

I also agree that we need a significant upgrade at OLB. I'd be fine with that being our 1st pick this year or top priority in free agency.

[BillsImpossible]

It's almost like BillsImpossible forgets that you can just look these things up whenever you want.

2013 Bills D: 14 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer
2014 Bills D: 4 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer
2015 Bills D: 11 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer, with 3 games remaining and Dez Bryant and Desean Jackson on the schedule.

2013 Bills D: 47 pass plays over 20 yards, 14 over 40 yards.
2014 Bills D: 36 pass plays over 20 yards, 8 over 40 yards.
2015 Bills: 49 pass plays over 20 yards, 9 over 40 yards.

Ryan's D has managed to get all of the downsides of a complicated blitzing defense without any of the positives like sacks and turnovers.

Thank you for listing those stats. Where did you find them?

Rex's problem all year long has been trying to implement a complex 3-4 system with a 4-3 defense.

He doesn't have the players to run his exotic defense, at least not yet.

The Bills defense basically had to learn a new language this year.

2013 - Spanish
2014 - English
2015 - Japanese

I'm willing to give Rex Ryan the benefit of the doubt.

Pettine and Schwartz had good defenses, but I don't think they ever had the potential to be great.

[BillsImpossible]

Can Thurman and replace him with Pettine?

X-Era, you nailed that one. If the Bills don't make the playoffs, and the Browns do what the Browns do, everyone and their mother is going to want Pettine back.

If the Browns beat the Steelers in Week 17, Pettine stays in Cleveland.

[BillsImpossible]

I hate to repeat myself...well, actually in this case I really don't...

OK, here it is...originally it was posted to show the rankings for Schwartz vs Pettine (in parenthesis)...I've added this year for Rex, {in brackets}...

Points per game--4--(20)--{15}
Yards per game--4--(10)--{20}
Yards per point--3--(6)--{17}
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)--{22}
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)--{17}
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)--{22}
Rush yards per game--11--(28)--{14}
Passing yards per game--3--(4)--{23}
Sacks--1--(2)--{30}
Interceptions--6--(2)--{10}
QB rating--2--(3)--{10}

As you can see, not only has Ryan's defense regressed from Schwartz's level, he's actually made the defense worse than Pettine two seasons ago, with ZERO categories having a ranking higher than 10 (compared to Pettine's 5) and ranked worse than Pettine's D in 8 of 11 of the categories (the exceptions are points per game, fumbles recovered, and rush yards per game). Ryan vs Pettine is bad enough...Ryan vs Schwartz = no contest. Pettine = decent...Schwartz = dominant...Ryan = dismal and pathetic.

Then why in the hell is Jim Schwartz baking Christmas cookies with his wife right now?

Why doesn't he have a job coaching in the NFL today?

Either he's being blackballed for some reason, or he's just not a very good defensive coordinator.

[MikeInRoch]

Because he didn't WANT a job last year.

[BillsImpossible]

Nah, he didn't want to live the dream job doing what he loves to do making millions and having a ton of fun doing it.

He got kicked out of the fraternity for some unknown reason, that's my guess.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Thank you for listing those stats. Where did you find them?

Rex's problem all year long has been trying to implement a complex 3-4 system with a 4-3 defense.

He doesn't have the players to run his exotic defense, at least not yet.

The Bills defense basically had to learn a new language this year.

2013 - Spanish
2014 - English
2015 - Japanese

I'm willing to give Rex Ryan the benefit of the doubt.

Pettine and Schwartz had good defenses, but I don't think they ever had the potential to be great.

The TD stats I pulled from pro football reference and the long play starts from nfl.com.


Then why in the hell is Jim Schwartz baking Christmas cookies with his wife right now?

Why doesn't he have a job coaching in the NFL today?

Either he's being blackballed for some reason, or he's just not a very good defensive coordinator.

I don't think any one considers Schwartz a genius, but he was a much better for for our players and it is clear you agree with that.

Rex's problem is that he has championship caliber defensive talent but has only coached up an unruly mob.

[MikeInRoch]

Nah, he didn't want to live the dream job doing what he loves to do making millions and having a ton of fun doing it.

He got kicked out of the fraternity for some unknown reason, that's my guess.

Given that he said that he would be "selective" when looking for future coaching jobs - yes.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/10/27/jim-schwartz-wants-to-return-to-nfl-in-2016/

[cookie G]

It's almost like BillsImpossible forgets that you can just look these things up whenever you want.

2013 Bills D: 14 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer
2014 Bills D: 4 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer
2015 Bills D: 11 TDs that came on plays of 20 yards or longer, with 3 games remaining and Dez Bryant and Desean Jackson on the schedule.

2013 Bills D: 47 pass plays over 20 yards, 14 over 40 yards.
2014 Bills D: 36 pass plays over 20 yards, 8 over 40 yards.
2015 Bills: 49 pass plays over 20 yards, 9 over 40 yards.

Ryan's D has managed to get all of the downsides of a complicated blitzing defense without any of the positives like sacks and turnovers.

Add another 4 plays of 20 yards or more to that total. With 2 games left, and a little luck, they can double last year's total.

But yes, let's keep the coach that brought this all on.

Not to mention a whole bunch of TDs and gobs of yardage.

[BillsImpossible]

Is the problem the system, or the players?

Mario Williams has been nowhere this year.

Is that the coaching staff's fault?

[cookie G]

Is the problem the system, or the players?

Mario Williams has been nowhere this year.

Is that the coaching staff's fault?

The only one generating any kind of pressure this year is Jerry Hughes. And hell, they had him in pass coverage half the time today.

3 of these guys had 10 sacks last year, 3 of them had 10 sacks the year before.


This year, 3 of them haven't gotten close to the QB.

You tell me?

The answer really isn't hard.

[swiper]

Is the problem the system, or the players?

Mario Williams has been nowhere this year.

Is that the coaching staff's fault?

Yes. Absolutely.

Do you even understand football?

[Owen DeBoard]

Well listening to Rex and Mario talk sounds like there will be some changes and I think it will be both players and coaches.

[colin]

The only one generating any kind of pressure this year is Jerry Hughes. And hell, they had him in pass coverage half the time today.

3 of these guys had 10 sacks last year, 3 of them had 10 sacks the year before.


This year, 3 of them haven't gotten close to the QB.

You tell me?

The answer really isn't hard.

I think that was true at first, but Mario quit on the team. Watch the read option the skins scored their second TD on, Mario the pos quit after screwing up his read. He needs to be sat down, and then cut when it suits the cap best.

[Mr. Pink]

How is there going to be a major defensive overhaul?

The D-line minus Mario will remain intact as the other guys up front make an assload of money too. Yes, assload is my word of the day, deal with it. There's no way this team can move or get rid of Dareus or Hughes and both make way too much money for the scheme that Wrecks, I'm totally stealing that off Yardie from now on, employs.

This team is also gonna have to put a bunch of money into Gilmore, since allegedly he's a shutdown corner. Fans say it, coaching staff says it, so it must be true. It really isn't but that's not the point, he's just another guy that's overvalued by the franchise and fanbase. And he's already gonna be getting assload of money next year, 11 million worth, unless he ends up getting a new contract in the offseason.

Cordy Glenn and Richie Incognito are gonna get paid this offseason, to the tune of at least 12 million between the two of them.

And, since apparently Tire Fire Taylor is loved by the fans and franchise, money needs to be put aside to be able to give him a new contract...whatever amount that actually ends up being who knows.

So the only guys coming off the books next year who make bank are Harvin, Bradham and likely Mario. All of that money is gonna be completely gone resigning Glenn and Incognito alone + whatever Mario's cap hit is...so the reality is, there's no money available for this overhaul you're suggesting.

[X-Era]

The only overhaul we need is in the coaching staff