Anybody believe the Bills are close ??

[Skooby]

We take a few steps forward with the offense & a few steps back with the defense, what a joke. At least we are drafting in the top 13, which tells me that we aren't that far from the playoffs. Have a good off-season !

Go Bills !!

[Ginger Vitis]

At least we are drafting in the top 13,


The Bills are picking 19th.. Were you not allowed internet access at Bills message boards rehab?

[Mace]

I don't believe they are close, no.

[Victor7]

We are picking 19th. Not 13.

As for the topic I don't know. Some days I think we really are inches away. Then other days I remember we are the Bills and I just know the football gods will find a way to extend our pain.

This pas 2 seasons were "funny" in that way. 2014 delivered an elite defense paired with an offense that was so miserable and amateur it became painful. A year later we do the right thing and get a real coach to run the offense. In theory the already elite defense paired with a good offense should suffice. But wait ..... the football gods have an ace up their sleeve. Rex ruins a perfectly good defense by turning them into the most underachieving mediocre bunch in recent memory. In the process they ruin a very worthy and proffesional effort from Roman, Taylor and the offense.

Can't wait to see how the gods will screw us up in 2017.

[Mace]

We are picking 19th. Not 13.

As for the topic I don't know. Some days I think we really are inches away. Then other days I remember we are the Bills and I just know the football gods will find a way to extend our pain.

This pas 2 seasons were "funny" in that way. 2014 delivered an elite defense paired with an offense that was so miserable and amateur it became painful. A year later we do the right thing and get a real coach to run the offense. In theory the already elite defense paired with a good offense should suffice. But wait ..... the football gods have an ace up their sleeve. Rex ruins a perfectly good defense by turning them into the most underachieving mediocre bunch in recent memory. In the process they ruin a very worthy and proffesional effort from Roman, Taylor and the offense.

Can't wait to see how the gods will screw us up in 2017.

By making us go through rebuilding the previous elite defense while teaching the over complex scheme to rookies.

[Night Train]

I always Billieve.

[swiper]

Scooby Doobie Dooo!

[OpIv37]

We are not close. Think about it this way:

Clearly we weren't good enough last year. We need to improve and we are right up against the cap, so how can we sign anyone? Well, losing Mario will free up a big chunk of change, but that won't be enough to sign our two starting FA OL's, replace Mario and still make the team better somehow. Say what you want about Mario's contract: we still don't have anyone equal or better to step in for him, and I suspect Hughes' numbers will go down then they don't have to worry about Mario on the other side.

Couple that with the fact that we will likely be without Shady for the first 4 games, and I don't see it happening for this team.

Pegula has a good thing going with the Sabres. They're not good yet but they have a lot of young talent and a lot of cap room so they can grab the missing pieces in a year or two to gel. The future is bright.

But it took forever to get here. Why? Pegula bought into the GM's bull****and thought the team was only a few pieces away. He spent big on players who never performed, like Leino, Regher and Ehrhoff. The team mired in mediocrity before completely imploding and he had to start over.

Pegula has made the same mistake with the Bills. We will never win with Rex and guys like Shady and Watkins are great, but we don't have the team around them to win or the cap space to add pieces.

[Scumbag College]

I always Billieve.

I predict 12-4 before the start of every year and predict 12-4 for 2016 as well.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I thought we were when we brought in Marrone. I was thinking first year we'd stink, second year we'd be frisky but barely miss the playoffs, and third year we'd be contenders because the team would gel and we had a favorable schedule. The complete implosion of the defense ruined that.

[BillsImpossible]

The offense is a lot closer to being the strength of the team than the defense.

After getting on the same page, Taylor and Watkins played great the rest of the season.

Charles Clay is the best tight end the Bills have ever had. He just turned 27 years old 3 days ago. He's entering the prime of his career.

Running game, check. Even without McCoy, the Bills ran the ball well last year.

Glenn and Incognito will resign, and the offensive line as a whole should be better.

Right tackle and the 2nd WR are the only positions on offense that worry me.

Make or break year for Tyrod Taylor. I think the kid's gonna' make it big.

Defense - Muchos problemos.

One or even two rookie draft picks can't fill the holes at linebacker, nose tackle, safety, and a pass rushing defensive end.

Rex's defensive makeover along with his brother's help is either going to be really good, or look like bad cosmetic surgery.

[YardRat]

1) Pretty sure MMD is referring to the back end of the draft when he referred to 'top 13', although 19th is actually 'top 14'.
2) They were a lot closer at this time last year, with a dominant D and solid special teams already in place, only needing a QB, an OC, and one or two linemen. We filled a couple of those holes at least for this season, but overall the team turned into a cluster****. Two steps forward, ten back.

[Mace]

The offense is a lot closer to being the strength of the team than the defense.

After getting on the same page, Taylor and Watkins played great the rest of the season.

Charles Clay is the best tight end the Bills have ever had. He just turned 27 years old 3 days ago. He's entering the prime of his career.

Running game, check. Even without McCoy, the Bills ran the ball well last year.

Glenn and Incognito will resign, and the offensive line as a whole should be better.

Right tackle and the 2nd WR are the only positions on offense that worry me.

Make or break year for Tyrod Taylor. I think the kid's gonna' make it big.

Defense - Muchos problemos.

One or even two rookie draft picks can't fill the holes at linebacker, nose tackle, safety, and a pass rushing defensive end.

Rex's defensive makeover along with his brother's help is either going to be really good, or look like bad cosmetic surgery.

I sort of agree in general but I think they've saddled themselves with a lot of fragile guys on offense.

I don't think Clay, Taylor, Miller, Henderson, McCoy, or Karlos are going to make it enough games. Urbik will be gone unless he stays for minimum wage, Kouandjio is going nowhere quick, and Manuel is questionable for what he might be able to do without any of the above. That leaves gaps or depth at TE, OT, OG, RB, backup QB and offensive line swing man, not to mention a threatening slot receiver.

Defense needs DE, ILB, OLB, Ryan safety, plug and play NT/DT to fit in Ryans inflexible scheme.

They dorked this up. They need to shed salary already, and that's just not the sign of an 8-8 team on the rise, it's the sign of almost but not quite and start over. It looked good on paper last year, probably looked better in practice with less talent the year before, and the window has closed with a need to get specialized defensive players for a complex system that won't work well for at least another year while injuries and age rough players up worse.

[BillsImpossible]

1) Pretty sure MMD is referring to the back end of the draft when he referred to 'top 13', although 19th is actually 'top 14'.
2) They were a lot closer at this time last year, with a dominant D and solid special teams already in place, only needing a QB, an OC, and one or two linemen. We filled a couple of those holes at least for this season, but overall the team turned into a cluster****. Two steps forward, ten back.

It definitely feels that way, but the one thing many fans aren't thinking about is quarterback.

When is the last time Bills fans have went in to a season feeling confident at knowing who their starting quarterback was going to be?

2002?

If Tyrod Taylor improves upon his unbelievably good first season as a starter, the Bills went ten feet back to take 100 yards forward.

[SpikedLemonade]

I see the Bills going 7-9 next season.

[Mace]

It definitely feels that way, but the one thing many fans aren't thinking about is quarterback.

When is the last time Bills fans have went in to a season feeling confident at knowing who their starting quarterback was going to be?

2002?

If Tyrod Taylor improves upon his unbelievably good first season as a starter, the Bills went ten feet back to take 100 yards forward.

Remember though, teams now have enough film to know when he's likely to run, that he/they don't use the middle of the field, that they can't go to hurry up offense, that he doesn't do reads well, and that he's likely to be harmed if you hit him enough.

I'm ok with Taylor, but I'm not sure my being ok with Taylor is going to change much.

- - - Updated - - -


I see the Bills going 7-9 next season.

You're an optimist, I was just thinking 5-11/6-10 land.

[BillsImpossible]

I see the Bills going 7-9 next season.

15-1

[Mace]

15-1

Not without a trebuchet, Mister Man.

[BillsImpossible]

Not without a trebuchet, Mister Man.

Tyrod Taylor's arm is as strong and accurate as any taller trebuchet.

I'll take the more accuracte, and more mobile mini-trebuchet over a less accurate, big trebuchet like EJ Manuel.

'Mister Man,' lol.

More like Mr. Mom. No, I'm not Batman.

It's time to give up the wooby, Buffalo.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t2-NFhEI-DM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Mace]

I still have my wooby. That was uncalled for.

[BillsImpossible]

Bills fans are close, not sure about the Bills.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d9Tr46fuFgU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[feldspar]

I think the Bills might be close enough to sneak in for a wildcard spot if the ball bounces their way enough and they don't shoot themselves in the foot too much. Tall order, I know. Could happen. If Tyrod takes the next step and we clean up the defensive scheme, we could compete with anyone at least IMO.

Then again, Tom Brady can't play forever. A couple more years maybe and the Bills will probably have as good of a chance as anyone to win the division in any given year. It's a ***** being in their division.

[sukie]

Taylor has alot to prove. Regularly hiitting the middle of the field between 10-15 yards... a must.

Clay MAY be the best ever but has a long way to go... Pete Metz, McKellar, and Reuben Gant may have issues with that statement.

More importantly... Rex needs to either PROVE we are all wrong about his crappy scheme, or he needs to kick his ego in the nuts and dumb it down by playing to player strengths.... or in other words... be a bully.

A D can't be a bully if they need an interpreter.

[Ingtar33]

Can't wait to see how the gods will screw us up in 2017.

Taylor will have a better year in the 2016-2017 season, and demand a max deal like Cousins is currently extorting the Skins for. Of course we'll be up against the cap and caught in a position where we can't afford to pay the extortion money since we failed to extend taylor in the 2016 offseason. The bills finally find their replacement for Jim Kelly only for him to shuffle off to New England to replace a retiring tom brady and extend the BB domination over the bills another decade.

That's about the worst case scenario i can envision.

[gebobs]

Of course, it's pure conjecture before the draft, free agency, and camp, bbut I'll go with no better than 0.500. The road schedule is going to be murder. Three games on the west coast plus Baltimore, Cinci, and, of course, the Pats who will unquestionable sweep us again.

[Bill Cody]

no

[sahlensguy]

Hell no.

[coastal]

closer to 20 years of not making it than they are of making the playoffs.

[WagonCircler]

I would say that the Bills and Sabres are two teams headed in opposite directions, but that's not quite accurate.

I fully believe in what the Sabres are doing. It's taking a while, but there's a lot to be hopeful about. I think they will be an elite team, a Stanley Cup contender, in 2-3 years.

The Bills will remain mired in the same mediocrity they've been stuck in for the last 15 years. There's no reason to be hopeful. The organization is run by hacks and snake oil salesmen.

Our only hope for the Bills is that Pegula "Darcys" them all.

[ublinkwescore]

Honestly, I no longer really give a **** about football. Thanks Rex, thanks NFL officiating.

[Novacane]

Close to what? Eeking into the playoffs and being one and done? Maybe. Close to competing with the big boys for a SB? No!

[Historian]

9-7 and 8-8 would indicate that they are not that far off. I actually believe that. Unfortunately they have a few things that aren't in their favor:

1. I like Taylor, but I am not sold on him.
2. The D line is aging as we speak.
3. They do not have much cap room.
4. Kicking game is suspect.
5. Same power brokers in the front office.
6. Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, Texans, Steelers all seem to be getting better. We can't even get past NE at home.

I would say playoffs are a long shot at this point.

[Typ0]

Close to what? A lucky break and getting into the playoffs? Perhaps. Winning in the playoffs? No way.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

I see the Bills going 7-9 next season.
That schedule next year is a *****. The road portion has Six sure losses and at home it's not too much better. 6-10 at best.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

closer to 20 years of not making it than they are of making the playoffs.
We are currently in a portion to be pre Jim Mora saints had and are in a position to be pre Chuck Noll Pittsburgh Steelers bad. I just hope we are never Chicago and St. Louis sea Cardinals bad.

[Mace]

9-7 and 8-8 would indicate that they are not that far off. I actually believe that. Unfortunately they have a few things that aren't in their favor:

1. I like Taylor, but I am not sold on him.
2. The D line is aging as we speak.
3. They do not have much cap room.
4. Kicking game is suspect.
5. Same power brokers in the front office.
6. Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, Texans, Steelers all seem to be getting better. We can't even get past NE at home.

I would say playoffs are a long shot at this point.

I'm still stuck on 3 lately, the cap room. I just don't know of any teams shedding salary that aren't just over the hill, needing to rebuild, or struggling to remain contenders, meaning they have contended and are reasonably intact enough to return to relative form. Relative form in our case, is, well, struggling with .500 and there are too many holes now with the defense all dorked up and needing Ryan men.

I mean, we're within the margin of being unable to sign a draft class either over or under depending what you read where atm. That's just not on the cusp, it's past the best you can do with a pricey roster that finished 8-8.

[Turf]

The coach is a moron. Closer to failure, turnover, and another rebuild is all.

[Albany,n.y.]

Did fans of the following teams think they were close at the end of their season?

The last place 8-8 2008 New Orleans Saints
The 5-11 last place 2000 New England Patriots with a coach the fans didn't think much of after his 1st year when the team got worse with him.
The 4-12 last place 1999 St. Louis Rams with a coach who many thought the game had passed him by

Considering the fact that things can turn around quickly in the NFL, we have a coach that some of you don't think much of but has a winning playoff record, and we don't even know who will be on the roster after free agency & the draft, anyone writing off next season is just being way too negative.

Do I believe we're close? I'd say a lot closer than what most people thought of the teams I listed above who won the Super Bowl the very next season.
Let's wait and see what the 2016 Bills look like before writing off the season.

[k-oneputt]

Honestly, I no longer really give a **** about football. Thanks Rex, thanks NFL officiating.

I went college football years ago. Better games and more exciting imo.

The NFL and their bias/cheating for a half dozen teams turned me off to that league.
I'll still watch but not like I used to.

[Victor7]

Did fans of the following teams think they were close at the end of their season?

The last place 8-8 2008 New Orleans Saints
The 5-11 last place 2000 New England Patriots with a coach the fans didn't think much of after his 1st year when the team got worse with him.
The 4-12 last place 1999 St. Louis Rams with a coach who many thought the game had passed him by

Considering the fact that things can turn around quickly in the NFL, we have a coach that some of you don't think much of but has a winning playoff record, and we don't even know who will be on the roster after free agency & the draft, anyone writing off next season is just being way too negative.

Do I believe we're close? I'd say a lot closer than what most people thought of the teams I listed above who won the Super Bowl the very next season.
Let's wait and see what the 2016 Bills look like before writing off the season.

Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Kurt Warner

That's why those teams got better. So unless Tyrod makes the jump to the big leagues your examples are a bit different.

[Albany,n.y.]

Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Kurt Warner

That's why those teams got better. So unless Tyrod makes the jump to the big leagues your examples are a bit different.
Brady & Warner had NEVER started an NFL game when the seasons began. In fact, entering training camp, neither was even supposed to be the starter when the season began. Tyrod has more NFL experience than either one of those 2 and if he doesn't progress, who knows if we won't have another Brady or Warner on the roster at the start of next season.
As I said-we don't know the 2016 Bills. The odds are like 99.99% that the guy who will open the 2016 season on the depth chart behind Tyrod Taylor isn't currently on the roster (Sorry, EJ hanger-ons -that's the fact Jack).

[Mr. Pink]

Brady & Warner had NEVER started an NFL game when the seasons began. In fact, entering training camp, neither was even supposed to be the starter when the season began. Tyrod has more NFL experience than either one of those 2 and if he doesn't progress, who knows if we won't have another Brady or Warner on the roster at the start of next season.
As I said-we don't know the 2016 Bills. The odds are like 99.99% that the guy who will open the 2016 season on the depth chart behind Tyrod Taylor isn't currently on the roster (Sorry, EJ hanger-ons -that's the fact Jack).

Sorry to inform you that EJ isn't going anywhere. His salary must be paid if he's here or not, so why get rid of him, pay him anyway and then pay someone else to do his job?

[toto8]

Close to what? The bottom of the division? Sure
Making the playoffs? F**k NO!
Having a great defense? No way! Specially since our stupid coach wants to use linebackers as our strength on defense when we have great defensive linemen.
Maybe we are close to have a great offense but we will be half a team like many seasons past. Good offense, ****ty defense.

Why they always have to f**k things up? With Chan an offensive mind we had great offense, ****ty defense with Marrone good defense ****ty offense with Wrecks good offense, ****ty defense. I am tired of this ****!

[Albany,n.y.]

Sorry to inform you that EJ isn't going anywhere. His salary must be paid if he's here or not, so why get rid of him, pay him anyway and then pay someone else to do his job?
Get rid of him because he's a liability that costs the team games if he starts. You pay someone who can come in and win games if needed.
If all they cared about was the money they could hire one of us at the league minimum and we'd be eternally grateful just to sit on the bench & we could lose the same games EJ will. They want to be able to win the games that Tyrod misses, not keep EJ around just because they have to pay him whether he's around or not.
You EJ guys would go down with a ship even if it was in 1 foot of water in a kiddie pool rather than just stand up and walk away.

[Mr. Pink]

Get rid of him because he's a liability that costs the team games if he starts. You pay someone who can come in and win games if needed.
If all they cared about was the money they could hire one of us at the league minimum and we'd be eternally grateful just to sit on the bench & we could lose the same games EJ will. They want to be able to win the games that Tyrod misses, not keep EJ around just because they have to pay him whether he's around or not.
You EJ guys would go down with a ship even if it was in 1 foot of water in a kiddie pool rather than just stand up and walk away.

I'm not an EJ guy.

Once his contract is up, he's done here...and likely done in the league in general.

But he won't go anywhere this offseason, his money is guaranteed regardless if he's here or not, so therefore, he'll be here. Besides, name me a team that will compete and win more games than they lose if their backup has to play full games? By that logic, the Colts should go out and sign a legitimate backup QB because Luck going down cost them the AFC South. The Pats should have gone out and got a legitimate backup the year after Brady went down, since Cassel couldn't take them to the playoffs. The Cowboys should go out and get a legitimate backup this year in case Romo goes down, since we all saw where his injury took them.

Games aren't won or lost via your backup QB, he's just another guy who holds a clipboard that doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. Switch EJ for Geno or Manziel or Cassel or Weeden or Schaub or Hasselbeck or Vick/Landry Jones and what is the end result? I'll tell you what...nothing good.

[BertSquirtgum]

We take a few steps forward with the offense & a few steps back with the defense, what a joke. At least we are drafting in the top 13, which tells me that we aren't that far from the playoffs. Have a good off-season !

Go Bills !!

Very far from the playoffs

[Albany,n.y.]

If EJ is here next season, then it shows a lack of commitment to winning. Just because he's getting paid is a pretty lame excuse to keep him around. You pay him & move on to someone else with more potential-and if you can't find a rookie to replace him as 2nd stringer, you bring in a veteran who can manage a game, not screw it up like EJ did in London.
If EJ is on the team next year, then they all deserve to be fired at the end of the season for their lack of foresight.
If Ryan lets Whaley force EJ on him another year, then I'll believe all the stuff the anti-Ryan folks say. I expect that Ryan & Roman will tell Whaley & the Pegulas that they won't tolerate another season with EJ as the backup.
If you were coach, why would you ever want to have to have EJ as your backup?

[YardRat]

If the Pegulas are willing to tolerate another season or two of Wrecks and his Clown Car of a coaching staff, I'm sure they won't balk too much at keeping EJ around for one more year.

[Mace]

If the Pegulas are willing to tolerate another season or two of Wrecks and his Clown Car of a coaching staff, I'm sure they won't balk too much at keeping EJ around for one more year.

I still kind of wonder if they've grasped that football teams work in a different scale of time than hockey teams do.

[Historian]

Did fans of the following teams think they were close at the end of their season?

The last place 8-8 2008 New Orleans Saints
The 5-11 last place 2000 New England Patriots with a coach the fans didn't think much of after his 1st year when the team got worse with him.
The 4-12 last place 1999 St. Louis Rams with a coach who many thought the game had passed him by



Each of those teams, (especially the Rams) had not been competitive in quite some time. Because of their draft position every year, they had stockpiled some depth.

That's the opposite of what the Bills do. They draft high and trade them away for a bag of pucks.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

[Albany,n.y.]

Each of those teams, (especially the Rams) had not been competitive in quite some time. Because of their draft position every year, they had stockpiled some depth.

That's the opposite of what the Bills do. They draft high and trade them away for a bag of pucks.

Wash, rinse, repeat.
The main thing they had in common was each got their Super Bowl QB basically for free.
NO got Brees because he got hurt going into free agency & SD was moving on to a former 1st rounder in Rivers.
NE hit the jackpot with a 6th round pick-a 1 in a million shot of finding a HOF QB in the late 6th
STL got a franchise QB (who had been cut as an undrafted NFL rookie 6 years earlier) out of Arenaball-even longer odds than what NE did.

Maybe, just maybe, it's finally our turn & we found the 1 backup in the league who sat for 4 years, showed something in his 1st year as a starter & then emerged as the franchise QB for the next decade in his 2nd year. If that turns out to be the case, then we'll join that list of teams that got their franchise QB for free. Of the 3 teams above, the most all of them combined gave up was a 6th round pick.

Hey, it's the offseason-I'd rather view this team with optimism instead of pessimism.

[Victor7]

Brady & Warner had NEVER started an NFL game when the seasons began. In fact, entering training camp, neither was even supposed to be the starter when the season began. Tyrod has more NFL experience than either one of those 2 and if he doesn't progress, who knows if we won't have another Brady or Warner on the roster at the start of next season.
As I said-we don't know the 2016 Bills. The odds are like 99.99% that the guy who will open the 2016 season on the depth chart behind Tyrod Taylor isn't currently on the roster (Sorry, EJ hanger-ons -that's the fact Jack).

Oh I know they weren't established stars at the moment. But I think you are being very optimistic about Tyrod's chances of pulling one of those very rare from zero to hero scenarios.

Agreed about EJ. He needs to go.

[YardRat]

The main thing they had in common was each got their Super Bowl QB basically for free.
NO got Brees because he got hurt going into free agency & SD was moving on to a former 1st rounder in Rivers.
NE hit the jackpot with a 6th round pick-a 1 in a million shot of finding a HOF QB in the late 6th
STL got a franchise QB (who had been cut as an undrafted NFL rookie 6 years earlier) out of Arenaball-even longer odds than what NE did.

Maybe, just maybe, it's finally our turn & we found the 1 backup in the league who sat for 4 years, showed something in his 1st year as a starter & then emerged as the franchise QB for the next decade in his 2nd year. If that turns out to be the case, then we'll join that list of teams that got their franchise QB for free. Of the 3 teams above, the most all of them combined gave up was a 6th round pick.

Hey, it's the offseason-I'd rather view this team with optimism instead of pessimism.

If it sounds to good to be true, it probably is. ****ing cheaters.

[Joe Fo Sho]

If it sounds to good to be true, it probably is. ****ing cheaters.

Well, to be fair...the likelihood of drafting a HOF QB in the 6th round or later is much better than 1 in a million. There are currently 5 QB's in the HOF that were drafted in the 6th round or later...Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, George Blanda, Bart Starr, and Warren Moon. Take into account that Brady is an unfortunate lock, plus I think that Kurt Warner will get in, that makes 7 QBs in NFL history getting into the HOF that were drafted in the 6th round or later (undrafted). That would mean that there would have to be 6,999,993 other QBs taken in the 6th or later for that probability.

How many QBs per year get taken in the 6th round, 7th round, or undrafted? For the sake of argument, I would say that a conservative estimate would be 15 per year, which is a lot of undrafted rookie QBs being used as camp bodies. The HOF dates back to 1936, which is 79 years worth of drafts. which would put the numbers around 1185 total QBs, 7 of which are HOF worthy.

I would estimate those odds to be more like 1 in a 170 or so. He's not that special.

Still, **** the Patriots twice.

[Mace]

If it sounds to good to be true, it probably is. ****ing cheaters.

Just makes me laugh you saying that with that avatar.

[YardRat]

Just makes me laugh you saying that with that avatar.

Somebody who doesn't frequent the board too often and only lurks is probably thinking 'WTF?' after seeing that.

[Albany,n.y.]

Well, to be fair...the likelihood of drafting a HOF QB in the 6th round or later is much better than 1 in a million. There are currently 5 QB's in the HOF that were drafted in the 6th round or later...Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, George Blanda, Bart Starr, and Warren Moon. Take into account that Brady is an unfortunate lock, plus I think that Kurt Warner will get in, that makes 7 QBs in NFL history getting into the HOF that were drafted in the 6th round or later (undrafted). That would mean that there would have to be 6,999,993 other QBs taken in the 6th or later for that probability.

How many QBs per year get taken in the 6th round, 7th round, or undrafted? For the sake of argument, I would say that a conservative estimate would be 15 per year, which is a lot of undrafted rookie QBs being used as camp bodies. The HOF dates back to 1936, which is 79 years worth of drafts. which would put the numbers around 1185 total QBs, 7 of which are HOF worthy.

I would estimate those odds to be more like 1 in a 170 or so. He's not that special.

Still, **** the Patriots twice.
Here are the problems with the QBs you mention:

2 had special circumstances: 1) Staubach had a long term military commitment that would prohibit him from playing until 5 years after the draft. 2)Moon had already signed with the CFL before the draft. Who knows when Moon would have been drafted without his CFL commitment? His claim that teams wouldn't draft a black QB are hard to believe when in the same draft, Doug Williams was drafted in the 1st round. Warren Moon was a (NFL) draft dodger who fled to Canada before he could get drafted. The equivalent of Moon's draft status is Doug Flutie-a certain 1st rounder in 1985 until he signed the USFL. As a result he was drafted in the 11th round of the 1985 draft, 285th overall. If signing with the USFL moved Flutie 10 rounds down, it's easy to understand how a possible 4th rounder like Moon could fall out of the draft entirely in 1978.

ALL 4 older generation QBs were drafted in drafts with fewer teams and more rounds.
Here are the draft status of the 4 drafted QBs-each was in the old multi-round NFL draft: Staubach-10th round, 129th overall-the equivalent of a 4th round supplemental pick; Johnny Unitas 9th round, 102 overall-the equivalent of an early 4th round pick; George Blanda 12th round, 119th overall-a mid 4th rounder today. The only QB with a comparable draft slot to Brady is Bart Starr, a 17th round pick, 200th overall. Brady was drafted 199th.

So, of all the drafted players you mentioned, only 1 was comparable to Brady. Hopefully, there will be another 6th rounder who finds his way to the HOF, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Here are the problems with the QBs you mention:

Just to be clear, there was little to no actual science used in my calculations. I didn't mean for it to be taken literally. Still, I'll argue because work is boring.


2 had special circumstances: 1) Staubach had a long term military commitment that would prohibit him from playing until 5 years after the draft. 2)Moon had already signed with the CFL before the draft. Who knows when Moon would have been drafted without his CFL commitment? His claim that teams wouldn't draft a black QB are hard to believe when in the same draft, Doug Williams was drafted in the 1st round. Warren Moon was a (NFL) draft dodger who fled to Canada before he could get drafted. The equivalent of Moon's draft status is Doug Flutie-a certain 1st rounder in 1985 until he signed the USFL. As a result he was drafted in the 11th round of the 1985 draft, 285th overall. If signing with the USFL moved Flutie 10 rounds down, it's easy to understand how a possible 4th rounder like Moon could fall out of the draft entirely in 1978.

Eh, every player has risk involved when drafted that either raises or lowers their stock.

If Tom Brady's team had cheated in college like his professional team has/does, he probably would've been drafted higher. There is always a 'what if' scenario.


ALL 4 older generation QBs were drafted in drafts with fewer teams and more rounds.
Here are the draft status of the 4 drafted QBs-each was in the old multi-round NFL draft: Staubach-10th round, 129th overall-the equivalent of a 4th round supplemental pick; Johnny Unitas 9th round, 102 overall-the equivalent of an early 4th round pick; George Blanda 12th round, 119th overall-a mid 4th rounder today. The only QB with a comparable draft slot to Brady is Bart Starr, a 17th round pick, 200th overall. Brady was drafted 199th.

If in the future the NFL expands to 60 teams, does that make Brady's 6th round selection less significant?


So, of all the drafted players you mentioned, only 1 was comparable to Brady. Hopefully, there will be another 6th rounder who finds his way to the HOF, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Even still, that's 2 out of the number I made up of 1185. We can agree that at best he's a 1 in 600 player? Far from a one in a million.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Somebody who doesn't frequent the board too often and only lurks is probably thinking 'WTF?' after seeing that.

Someone who doesn't frequent the board and only lurks is probably thinking WTF in general

[gebobs]

Just to be clear, there was little to no actual science used in my calculations. I didn't mean for it to be taken literally.
I doubt Albany meant for his "million-to-one" odds to be either. :-)

[Joe Fo Sho]

I doubt Albany meant for his "million-to-one" odds to be either. :-)

I'm the only one allowed to exaggerate here.

[gebobs]

I'm the only one allowed to exaggerate here.

That's a bit hyperbolic, isn't it?

[feldspar]

I'm the only one allowed to exaggerate here.

I've told you a million times not to exaggerate.

[DynaPaul]

If Rex can cut the defense loose we'll be in the hunt. Everything is anchored on that.

[trapezeus]

a really bad NFL team can have a talent gap. I don't think we are that team right now. I think the areas we want to be good, WR, db, DL, even qb are ok enough to win. we aren't hamstrung by anymeans.
However, teams like ours of good to average talent can still go on to suck. and that largely is the result of coaching. in most games until a handful of stupid in game decisions do you in. that happened last year, and I see no reason for that to get better.

now you are asking tyrod, an average qb, to be the guy who makes up for that. I think tyrod will progress a little from last year, but not enough to mask bad challenges, timidness from the coaches, and hyper aggressive defense at times you don't have to be aggressive.

as a result, I think the bills will most likely have the talent to be a 7-10 win team, but coaching will keep them at the 6-8 wins for the nth time in 16 tries. and that should be enough for the rex experiment.

[Skooby]

It's hard to believe we have a first year starter with great stats, yet people are acting like we have no one. Right now, we have a top 14 QB. Is this not clear to most people here ?? Is this even debatable ?

[Dr. Who]

Ahh, he has to stay healthy, throw over the middle, and play big at the end of games more.
He might work out and I hope he does. His record of accomplishment is still a pretty small playing sample.

[mightysimi]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap3000000648801/Can-the-Bills-challenge-the-Patriots-in-the-AFC-East?campaign=tw-nn-sf23395295-sf23395295

This guy at nfln does. Not sure if he is just pandering to the fan base or not.

[Joe Fo Sho]

It's hard to believe we have a first year starter with great stats, yet people are acting like we have no one. Right now, we have a top 14 QB. Is this not clear to most people here ?? Is this even debatable ?

Carson Palmer
Russell Wilson
Drew Brees
Matt Ryan
Cam Newton
Jay Cutler
Matt Stafford
Aaron Rodgers
Tony Romo
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Andrew Luck
Joe Flacco
Ben Roethlisberger
Andy Dalton
Tom Brady
Alex Smith


There are 17 QBs that are pretty darn good. Which 4 of these QBs are worse than Tyrod? Not only that, but you say it's not even debatable? Which 4 of those guys are so much worse than Taylor that they don't even deserve to be mentioned in the same breath?

This isn't even mentioning the ACTUAL QBs that are debatably on Tyrod's level, like Tannehill, Bortles, Carr, Cousins, Bradford, Bridgewater, or Winston.

[mightysimi]

Carson Palmer
Russell Wilson
Drew Brees
Matt Ryan
Cam Newton
Jay Cutler
Matt Stafford
Aaron Rodgers
Tony Romo
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Andrew Luck
Joe Flacco
Ben Roethlisberger
Andy Dalton
Tom Brady
Alex Smith


There are 17 QBs that are pretty darn good. Which 4 of these QBs are worse than Tyrod? Not only that, but you say it's not even debatable? Which 4 of those guys are so much worse than Taylor that they don't even deserve to be mentioned in the same breath?

This isn't even mentioning the ACTUAL QBs that are debatably on Tyrod's level, like Tannehill, Bortles, Carr, Cousins, Bradford, Bridgewater, or Winston.

I think Taylor played better than Smith, Luck/Romo (injured), Stafford and Cutler last year. It would be insteresting to see their stats as first time starters. I think it is pretty hard to compare someone to guys with multiple seasons at the position. It's like saying Eichel is no good because there are 15 C in the league that are better than him this year.

[Joe Fo Sho]

I think Taylor played better than Smith, Luck/Romo (injured), Stafford and Cutler last year. It would be insteresting to see their stats as first time starters. I think it is pretty hard to compare someone to guys with multiple seasons at the position. It's like saying Eichel is no good because there are 15 C in the league that are better than him this year.

Right. I'm certainly not saying that he's no good, but to say he is unarguably a top 14 QB is premature to say the least.

You say that he played better last year than Smith, Luck, Romo, Stafford and Cutler, but the argument is for this coming year. Ask yourself who you would rather have for next season...Romo, Stafford, Luck, Smith, Cutler, or Tyrod. I can say that Tyrod is 5th or 6th on my list.

[mightysimi]

Right. I'm certainly not saying that he's no good, but to say he is unarguably a top 14 QB is premature to say the least.

You say that he played better last year than Smith, Luck, Romo, Stafford and Cutler, but the argument is for this coming year. Ask yourself who you would rather have for next season...Romo, Stafford, Luck, Smith, Cutler, or Tyrod. I can say that Tyrod is 5th or 6th on my list.

As of this moment I would take him over Cutler and Smith for sure. It is a 50/50 with Stafford because I'm not so sure how effective he will be without the 80/20% jump ball to Megatron. Def premature though.

[YardRat]

It's hard to believe we have a first year starter with great stats, yet people are acting like we have no one. Right now, we have a top 14 QB. Is this not clear to most people here ?? Is this even debatable ?

4th wasn't good enough, why should 14th be?

[sdbillsfan2]

What have the Bills done this off season to narrow the separation with the Pats. Up until today have they strengthened our talent ? I dont see it .Whaley has been here 6 years as the # 2 and # 1 gm. I still don't see his vision.

[Mace]

What have the Bills done this off season to narrow the separation with the Pats. Up until today have they strengthened our talent ? I dont see it .Whaley has been here 6 years as the # 2 and # 1 gm. I still don't see his vision.

We signed Jim Dray. You weren't paying attention. Pats might have a bunch of people who can run around and catch passes, but not a one of them can block like Jim Dray. Oh they'll be so sorry they skipped him and traded for Bennett when we play them and Dray blocks someone when we're cutting the gap from 33 points to 30 in the 3rd quarter.

[OpIv37]

Remember the original question: Does anyone think we are close?

Well, we were 8-8 last year.

We lost Mario Williams, who was overpaid based on his performance so I get the move- but who have we added that's equal or better?

We lost Nigel Bradham, which isn't a huge loss, but who have we added that's equal or better?

McKelvin is gone- not my favorite player but who have we added that's equal or better?

We are an 8-8 team that has a net talent loss so far and extremely limited cap space. Basically, the only way we don't hit 17 is if the rookie class is enough to put us over the edge from an 8-8 season into playoff contention.

We aren't close.

[Mace]

Remember the original question: Does anyone think we are close?

Well, we were 8-8 last year.

We lost Mario Williams, who was overpaid based on his performance so I get the move- but who have we added that's equal or better?

We lost Nigel Bradham, which isn't a huge loss, but who have we added that's equal or better?

McKelvin is gone- not my favorite player but who have we added that's equal or better?

We are an 8-8 team that has a net talent loss so far and extremely limited cap space. Basically, the only way we don't hit 17 is if the rookie class is enough to put us over the edge from an 8-8 season into playoff contention.

We aren't close.

Oh you've sooooooo underestimated the value of a good blocking tight end, Mister.

[Skooby]

I think Taylor played better than Smith, Luck/Romo (injured), Stafford and Cutler last year. It would be insteresting to see their stats as first time starters. I think it is pretty hard to compare someone to guys with multiple seasons at the position. It's like saying Eichel is no good because there are 15 C in the league that are better than him this year.

This is exactly what I'm trying to say, Smith / Stafford / Cutler not playing well makes Taylor about 14th or so. Taylor also doesn't have anywhere near the experience of any of the top 13 that are left, so with a little more time he should improve.

[YardRat]

The Sabres are probably closer. That says a lot.

[DraftBoy]

I think we're 2-3 players from making a run at the playoffs, but I don't think we're anywhere near close to make a run for a title.

[Ingtar33]

I think we're 2-3 players from making a run at the playoffs, but I don't think we're anywhere near close to make a run for a title.

I think we're legit more talented then several playoff teams last season. And we'll probably be more talented then several playoff teams this year. The problem is we're not talented enough to make the playoffs regardless of schedule. Looking at next seasons schedule I see a 7-9 season coming. Many people will be crying about it being a step back, but it won't really be. We're just going to run into a brutal schedule, and we're not good enough to overcome a brutal schedule. I don't care what REX does with the defense, I just don't see us making the playoffs with that schedule facing us.

Only a handful of teams are good enough to make the playoffs season after season, and we're not in that group. Right now we're in the perennial wildcard contender group that almost 15-20 of the teams sit in. This is better then 5 years ago, when we weren't even wildcard contenders. but the result will be disgustingly similar, to those DJ 7-9 atrocities (those DJ teams seriously overachieved).

[OpIv37]

What it comes down to is that we need to find 2 more wins to get a wild card (assuming a good conf record).

NE will win 11 or 12- we are not going to find 4 more wins to compete with them.

So, how do we get those 2 wins? Given our talent level that is flat at best and a more difficult schedule, I just don't see it.

[sdbillsfan2]

I know this is April fools day , but I really agree with this post. Focus on getting past NE and the Jets and the playoff become that much easier. Build to attack and defend against these two first.