2016 Roster Analysis

[YardRat]

Current roster/under contract-

QB-Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel
RB-LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams, Mike Gillislie, James Wilder Jr
FB-Jerome Felton
WR-Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquis Goodwin, Marcus Easley, Greg Salas, Greg Little, Jarrett Boykin, Dezmin Lewis, Walter Powell
TE-Charles Clay, Chris Gragg, Nick O'Leary, Jacob Maxwell, Blake Annan
C-Eric Wood, Ronald Patrick
G-John Miller, Cyril Richardson, Ryan Groy
OT-Cordy Glenn, Seantrel Henderson, Cyrus Kouandijo
DT-Kyle Williams, Jerel Worthy, TJ Barnes
DE-Marcel Dareus, Lavar Edwards, Cedric Reed, Jairus Wynn
OLB-Jerry Hughes, Manny Lawson, IK Enemkpali, AJ Tarpley, Randell Johnson, Max Valles, Kevin Reddick
ILB-Preston Brown, Tony Steward
CB-Stephon Gilmore, Ronald Darby, Nickell Roby, Mario Butler, Javier Arenas, Cam Thomas, Merrill Noel, Sammy Seamster
SS-Corey Graham, Jonathon Meeks, Phillip Thomas
FS-Aaron Williams, Duke Williams, Jonathon Dowling
PK-Dan Carpenter
KOS-Jordan Gay
LS-Garrison Sanborn
P-Colton Schmitt

FREE AGENTS- OLB Nigel Bradham, G Richie Incognito, CB Ron Brooks, S Baccari Rambo, DE Alex Carrington, DT/DE Corbin Bryant, DT/DE Stephan Charles, WR Chris Hogan, ILB Ty Powell, OT Jordan Mills, QB Josh Johnson, RB Cierre Wood, WR Leonard Hankerson

Black Bold = Should be 'givens' to make the 2016 roster, the core to build on. 26 players. That leaves 27 spots (just over half) to fill with current players, Bills' free agents, market free agents, the draft and UDFA's.

Needs--QB=1,2...RB=1,2...FB=0...WR=3,4...TE=1...C/G=3...OT=2...DT=1,2...DE=2,3...OLB=2...ILB=2...CB=2,3...SS=1...FS=1...PK/KOS=1...LS=0...P=0
At this point, I would argue the team's priorities should be back-up QB, starting guard, kicker, starting DT, starting ILB, and starting safety. There are other needs, but they aren't going to be able upgade all of them in one off-season and we'll have to live with average to below average performance in some starting spots (ie, Henderson at OT)

The Draft---

R1-P19-19--ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama
R2-P18-49--S Vonn Bell, Ohio State
R3-P17-80--K Roberto Aguayo, Florida State
R4-P19-118--OT Fahn Cooper, Ol' Miss
R5-P17-156--QB Jake Coker, Alabama
R6-P17-195--DT DJ Reader, Clemson

Personally I would go big (oline and dline) early but I don't see the team going that way...Wrecks like athletes. Ragland and Bell will start immediately. Aguayo is a no-brainer if he lasts that long. Coker (or possibly Hogan in the same spot) can carry a clipboard for a season or be PS'd. Cooper and Reader can both develop as depth for a season, and rotate plays. All six could/should make the final roster, which brings the number to 32 spots filled.

Our own free agents---Hopefully we keep Incognito. I like Rambo as depth, as well as two of the three d-linemen (Carrington, Bryant, Charles). Hogan may be brought back as a necessity...experience and need numbers. May have to keep Powell for cheap depth. They are underlined above in the free agent section. That's six more bringing the roster to 38 spots filled, 15 open.

Players currently on the roster, not part of the core---I put those names in italics...gotta have warm bodies to fill out the squad. 10 more players, roster now at 48 with 5 holes. QB (3) RB (4) FB (1) WR (5) TE (2) C (1) G (3) OT (3) DT (3) DE (2) OLB (4) ILB (4) CB (5) S (5) PK (1) P (1) LS (1)

Updated needs---

WR-1-I think they'll keep six. (Sanu-Bengals, Blackmon-Jags, or Thompkins-Jet stank)
TE-1-Need a blocker, once again. (Gresham-Cards, Davis-Jet stank)
G/C/OT depth-1-Currently have zero back-up for Wood (Josh LeRibeus-Skins)
CB-1-Again, they'll keep six. (Antonio Cromartie seems obvious at the moment)
DE-1-Depth (Quinton Coples gets one last chance with Wrecks)

This is where the second/third level free agents come in, and I doubt we'll find any starters in the bunch. Whaley likes his first-round busts, and Wrecks likes his Jet Stank.

That would shape the 2016 roster to look like (starters in bold)...

QB-Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel, Jake Coker
RB-LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams, Mike Gillislie, James Wilder Jr
FB-Jerome Felton
WR-Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Chris Hogan, Marcus Easley, Dezmin Lewis, Justin Blackmon
TE-Charles Clay, Nick O'Leary, Jermaine Gresham
C-Eric Wood, Josh LeRibeus
G-John Miller, Richie Incognito, Cyril Richardson,
OT-Cordy Glenn, Seantrel Henderson, Fahn Cooper
DT-Kyle Williams, DJ Reader, Corbin Bryant
DE-Marcel Dareus, Stephan Charles, Quinton Coples
OLB-Jerry Hughes, Manny Lawson, IK Enemkpali, AJ Tarpley,
ILB-Preston Brown, Reggie Ragland, Tony Steward, Ty Powell
CB-Stephon Gilmore, Ronald Darby, Antonio Cromartie, Nickell Roby, Mario Butler, Javier Arenas
SS-Vonn Bell, Baccari Rambo, Jonathon Meeks
FS-Aaron Williams, Corey Graham
PK-Roberto Aguayo
P-Colton Schmitt
LS-Garrison Sanborn

[BillsImpossible]

Is a $2.3 million cap hit in Jerome Felton worth it?

[swiper]

I understand the FSU kicker is that good. But when a team leads the NFL in "years missed the play-offs" and has notable other holes, you cannot, CANNOT, use a draft pick, let alone a 3rd rounder, to waste on a kicker.

Kicker can be upgraded through free agency or some other way.

Whoever drafts that guy is going to be a play-off team with the luxury of having most of it's roster set already.

[YardRat]

No, but I don't see him going anywhere atm.

[swiper]

Is a $2.3 million cap hit in Jerome Felton worth it?

Until Incognito is signed and Miller shows he has stepped it up a level, then yes it's worth it.

[YardRat]

I understand the FSU kicker is that good. But when a team leads the NFL in "years missed the play-offs" and has notable other holes, you cannot, CANNOT, use a draft pick, let alone a 3rd rounder, to waste on a kicker.

Kicker can be upgraded through free agency or some other way.

Whoever drafts that guy is going to be a play-off team with the luxury of having most of it's roster set already.


Guaranteed starter and an extra roster spot...no other third rounder is going to bring that to the table.

[swiper]

Guaranteed starter and an extra roster spot...no other third rounder is going to bring that to the table.

LOL. See: Gary Anderson

[Mr. Pink]

Justin Blackmon would certainly be interesting if he gets reinstated and cleans up his act.

Athletically wise and talent wise, he'd be the best WR on the roster.

And he would be cheap.

[YardRat]

LOL. See: Gary Anderson

Let it go Swiper, that was over 30 years ago. Should the team not consider a LB in the first round either, because of Tom Cousineau?

[coastal]

17 years

[tampabay25690]

Is a $2.3 million cap hit in Jerome Felton worth it?

He isn't that much of a hit.

[X-Era]

Like the Gresham and Cromartie moves. Blackmon is a very intriguing option.

[YardRat]

Unfortunately, we need to go cheap and take chances.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

You have Kevin Hogan listed as a wideout but mention him as a QB. Are you thinking of bringing back Chris Hogan or picking up Kevin and changing his position?

Also, Blackmon is a non-starter. He's still on indefinite suspension, and last I heard he had not only hadn't bothered filing for re-instatement but he got a DUI arrest again​.

[swiper]

Let it go Swiper, that was over 30 years ago. Should the team not consider a LB in the first round either, because of Tom Cousineau?

The POINT for you numb nut is that we can accomplish the improvement without wasting a draft choice. Good kickers are a dime a dozen.

[Mace]

Is a $2.3 million cap hit in Jerome Felton worth it?

They only save 350k if they boot him. And no, he's not worth the 350k either.

[YardRat]

You have Kevin Hogan listed as a wideout but mention him as a QB. Are you thinking of bringing back Chris Hogan or picking up Kevin and changing his position?

Thanks for catching that...I have Chris coming back as WR, and only mentioned Kevin as an option to Coker regarding a Day 3 QB pick.


Also, Blackmon is a non-starter. He's still on indefinite suspension, and last I heard he had not only hadn't bothered filing for re-instatement but he got a DUI arrest again​.

Honestly didn't realize that, I may have to adjust then.

[YardRat]

The POINT for you numb nut is that we can accomplish the improvement without wasting a draft choice. Good kickers are a dime a dozen.

Feel free to do your own mock, and choose whatever player you want that will most likely languish as a backup/on IR/on the PS before getting cut after two or three seasons.

[Mace]

At this point, I would argue the team's priorities should be back-up QB, starting guard, kicker, starting DT, starting ILB, and starting safety. There are other needs, but they aren't going to be able upgade all of them in one off-season and we'll have to live with average to below average performance in some starting spots (ie, Henderson at OT)

I'd argue a bit different though.

There will be a backup QB to get next year, and vaguely competent scouting should be able to come up with a kicker without spending 30% of our picks on them. While both positions are significant, honestly neither of them will keep us from a Super Bowl. They're going to be a year away from anything they might achieve anyway with remodeling in progress. You can get either from vet FA's with adequate scouting.

I think they need starting ILB, OLB, DT, DE, Safety, guard and tackle, in no order, and the draft is rich with some possibilities at the spots. They could skimp at tackle, guard if they resign Incognito. Some players could fill multiple roles, Cravens at OLB/S, Jarran Reed at DT/DE, etc....but I think this is a draft they need to focus on the strengths of.

If I were to rank the spots in order, I think Ryan needs help bad, more than Roman. DT/DE, OLB/S, ILB, though I think there are enough of them to fetch a tackle and guard in there.

But I just have this feeling, they are going to do something stupid and trade up for a CB or WR.

[YardRat]

I think they need starting ILB, OLB, DT, DE, Safety, guard and tackle, in no order, and the draft is rich with some possibilities at the spots. They could skimp at tackle, guard if they resign Incognito. Some players could fill multiple roles, Cravens at OLB/S, Jarran Reed at DT/DE, etc....but I think this is a draft they need to focus on the strengths of.

Can't really disagree but there are a couple of spots where they are going to have to 'make do', I don't believe (especially considering the cap restraints) that they will be able to address all of the upgrades at starting positions that are needed. Something is going to have to give, and I think two of those spots are OT (they have Glenn and even though Henderson is questionable he can still start) and OLB (they have Hughes, and in all honesty Lawson is probably a better fit for Wrecks' scheme than either Jerry or Mario anyway). If they get Incognito inked, they can 'make do' with he and Miller again (still need versatile depth)...if they don't, guard becomes a huge priority.

Could they take a DE in the third instead of Aguayo and pick up a FA kicker? Sure, but will that third rounder be able to step into the line up (none really appealed to me that much in any mocks I've done) and is there a FA kicker that has the potential of Roberto? I addressed DT (Reader), S (Bell), and ILB (Ragland), three players I believe can step in and start day one (Ragland and Bell) or see significant playing time (Reader).

[YardRat]

Oh, and as far as QB, I'm tired of 'waiting until next year', we need to start using resources every year until we finally hit on a keeper.

[Mace]

Oh, and as far as QB, I'm tired of 'waiting until next year', we need to start using resources every year until we finally hit on a keeper.

Not when we don't have enough resources in a feeble QB draft though. They probably want a vet backup to step in when Taylor inevitably gets hurt. You can hope some of these guys pan out but it's only that, and why waste a pick on a cut this year ?

[YardRat]

Not when we don't have enough resources in a feeble QB draft though. They probably want a vet backup to step in when Taylor inevitably gets hurt. You can hope some of these guys pan out but it's only that, and why waste a pick on a cut this year ?

A vet back-up any where near worth a damn is going to be expensive. The team doesn't have picks, but they don't have cap room either. I'd rather take a chance on a draft pick then continue to parade through the locker room the likes of Josh Johnson, Matt Cassell, Thad Lewis, Tyler Thigpen et al.

[Mace]

A vet back-up any where near worth a damn is going to be expensive. The team doesn't have picks, but they don't have cap room either. I'd rather take a chance on a draft pick then continue to parade through the locker room the likes of Josh Johnson, Matt Cassell, Thad Lewis, Tyler Thigpen et al.

I dork around with the simulator alot. Got past my initial fixations to look players up. There are too many good players available to waste a pick on a failsauce QB when we already have one locked up under contract another year. You can get a decent rotational NT in the 6th, a decent DE in the 4th, a decent ILB in the 5th, tackles and guards, a few stellar prospects the 1st 3 rounds. I just don't think it's a good draft to shoot wild out of desperate hoping for a bullseye when we only have 6 picks and there are more solid shots to be had. You're talking desperation which is the Bills hallmark of oops, this is just not the year for hopeful potshots, imho.

[Night Train]

Need at OT,NT,ILB (2) stand out.

[YardRat]

I dork around with the simulator alot. Got past my initial fixations to look players up. There are too many good players available to waste a pick on a failsauce QB when we already have one locked up under contract another year. You can get a decent rotational NT in the 6th, a decent DE in the 4th, a decent ILB in the 5th, tackles and guards, a few stellar prospects the 1st 3 rounds. I just don't think it's a good draft to shoot wild out of desperate hoping for a bullseye when we only have 6 picks and there are more solid shots to be had. You're talking desperation which is the Bills hallmark of oops, this is just not the year for hopeful potshots, imho.

I don't perceive it as desperation, rather just a general philosophical shift. I certainly appreciate where you are coming from, I carried the same mindset for years up until a couple of seasons ago. Why draft a QB in the middle rounds when it's most likely they will fail? I understand that. However, we've been so dearth at the position this century, 16 years is long enough to go IMO without even taking an honest chance. Hitting on a QB is like playing the lottery, regardless of the round...first or seventh. But, it's guaranteed you're never going to hit on one, if you never take a chance. I'm ready to take chances and keep using a pick in every draft until the high risk/high reward gamble pays off.

In my mock in the op, I picked up a rotational NT in the 6th...a starting ILB in the first...a decent OT in the fourth, and a possible 'stellar prospect' in S Vonn Bell in the second, so really the only discussion points are the 3rd I used on K Aguayo and 5th on QB Coker. Could those be used instead on a 'decent' DE or G prospect? Absolutely, but as I've gone through mocks and researched players as you get into the middle rounds many of the DE prospects are light in the ass for Wrecks' defense (more suited for OLB) and the guards tend to drop/gain weight also (290 or less, maybe a little short, maybe a little weak, etc) so my opinion (at this point) is if you're going to take a chance on a guy why not take the risk of hitting big on a QB or use a pick for a player that is guaranteed to start/contribute week in and out as well as free up a roster spot?

Regardless, it's a potato/potatoe discussion...not really any right or wrong, just different.

[Mace]

I don't perceive it as desperation, rather just a general philosophical shift. I certainly appreciate where you are coming from, I carried the same mindset for years up until a couple of seasons ago. Why draft a QB in the middle rounds when it's most likely they will fail?

The difference in my mindset (for this particular draft), is, why not draft a player in those middle rounds that we need and could use instead of taking potshots. I very strongly do not believe this is a draft to airball a pick, though I might be inclined to agree with you if we had more of them, or next season.

We agree to disagree then, but unfortunately I think they will not use either of our philosophies on it.

[YardRat]

We agree to disagree then, but unfortunately I think they will not use either of our philosophies on it.

Yeah, that's probably a given.