PFF Draft Grades - Winners and Losers

[Night Train]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/04/30/draft-2016-nfl-draft-grades-for-all-32-teams/

[YardRat]

Jones has a cannon for an arm and he’s worth a developmental shot, even though his accuracy between six and 30 yards is among the worst in the class.

Well, that's a little troubling.

[Jry44]

Jones has a cannon for an arm and he’s worth a developmental shot, even though his accuracy between six and 30 yards is among the worst in the class.

Well, that's a little troubling.

Well it shouldn't be, he was a 4th round pick. Not a 1st or a second. He's not going to be counted on anytime soon.

[YardRat]

Well it shouldn't be, he was a 4th round pick. Not a 1st or a second. He's not going to be counted on anytime soon.

Yeah, it should be, especially if you're one of those "EJ is trash because accuracy can't be taught" guys. Those are the throws that make the difference between 'keeper' and 'pretender' at the QB position.

[sahlensguy]

How do they measure for accuracy because his completion % was fine? Jones' overall completion% was 61.7%, and he put up his highest% his junior year at 62.3%.

[sahlensguy]

Not sure how 80% of the league can grade out at B- or better. Just a mild gripe.

[sudzy]

How do they measure for accuracy because his completion % was fine? Jones' overall completion% was 61.7%, and he put up his highest% his junior year at 62.3%.

I don't know. EJ was completing 60% for a while. Then you get a 5 yard out sail over a guys head or a screen pass hit the ground. I guess it's consistency. What I've read is when Jones was just playing and not think in 2014 he was phenomenal. In 2015, when he was named the starter and they worked on mechanics he took a dive. Now, I might get killed for this, but, Tim Tebow comes to mind after reading this. He's a guy that is at his best when he's playing like he's on a sandlot.

[sahlensguy]

I don't know. EJ was completing 60% for a while. Then you get a 5 yard out sail over a guys head or a screen pass hit the ground. I guess it's consistency. What I've read is when Jones was just playing and not think in 2014 he was phenomenal. In 2015, when he was named the starter and they worked on mechanics he took a dive. Now, I might get killed for this, but, Tim Tebow comes to mind after reading this. He's a guy that is at his best when he's playing like he's on a sandlot.

EJ is at his best playing sandst too, just sayin. Accuracy may come down to, not completion %, but actually hitting redirects on target and in stride. IDK. Jones may not be able to hit a crossing pattern without getting the wr killed to save his life. It's a 4th round pick,so worth the shot I guess.

[DynaPaul]

Total waste of pick. The guy is basically Jamarcus Russell without all the hype.

[sudzy]

The guy is basically Jamarcus Russell without all the hype.

Russell might be a Bill by the end of next week. He fits the mold.

[swiper]

PFF flounders on Bills grade.

Round 1 - take guy with bum shoulder

Round 2 - take LB that can't cover in the emerging NFL pass game

Round 3 - take Corbin Bryant's twin

THEN the GM feels obliged to get some offense reacting by taking the worst QB that was drafted, a RB (why another?) and a WR.

[Jry44]

Yeah, it should be, especially if you're one of those "EJ is trash because accuracy can't be taught" guys. Those are the throws that make the difference between 'keeper' and 'pretender' at the QB position.

No, it shouldn't be. He's a 4th round, closer 5th round pick. Stop acting like every draft pick is going to eventually start. I get that there are exceptions, but 4th round picks are almost never counted on to be immediate starters. They're projects. I'm not a huge Cardale Jones fan, but I don't think that taking him with the last pick of the 4th round, given accuracy issues is a big deal, thus why he's basically a 5th round pick!

[swiper]

No, it shouldn't be. He's a 4th round, closer 5th round pick. Stop acting like every draft pick is going to eventually start. I get that there are exceptions, but 4th round picks are almost never counted on to be immediate starters. They're projects. I'm not a huge Cardale Jones fan, but I don't think that taking him with the last pick of the 4th round, given accuracy issues is a big deal, thus why he's basically a 5th round pick!

STUPID. That is EXACTLY the expectation. IF you don't think that each and every pick is eventually going to start then pick someone else. Stupidest post ever.

[stuckincincy]

Not sure how 80% of the league can grade out at B- or better. Just a mild gripe.

I can see you haven't attended school in the past 30 or so years...everybody is above average and gets a trophy. :shout:

[swiper]

Bengals had an excellent draft. Giving the Bills the same grade as the Bengals shows the failure of PFF.

[DesertFox24]

lol. Some people find reasons to complain and will never be happy. We drafted cardale in the fourth how many fours even play on all teams. We will bring qb bus next year but we needed a developmental guy and his ceiling is higher than any other day 3.

[sahlensguy]

I can see you haven't attended school in the past 30 or so years...everybody is above average and gets a trophy. :shout:

How soon before everybody makes the playoffs?

[Ground Chuck]

Jones was 11-0 at a big time school. Worth a 4th round flyer.

[YardRat]

No, it shouldn't be. He's a 4th round, closer 5th round pick. Stop acting like every draft pick is going to eventually start. I get that there are exceptions, but 4th round picks are almost never counted on to be immediate starters. They're projects. I'm not a huge Cardale Jones fan, but I don't think that taking him with the last pick of the 4th round, given accuracy issues is a big deal, thus why he's basically a 5th round pick!

Is it too much to ask that a project drafted in the fourth or fifth round and may never develop into a starter but hold a role as a back-up not have accuracy issues on the most important throws in the game? I'm certainly willing to give Jones some leash but there were other guys out there that could have been given the same shot.

[trapezeus]

Cardale jones seems like ej but drafted in the right spot and most likely not playing his first year.

Hes a likeable kid but it's a long shot that he can deliver consistency. But in his case he won't be asked to do it early.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Everybody wants to do comparisons. They don't work.

[Night Train]

The rule of thumb is getting 2 to 3 players out of each draft that can get a good deal of snaps the first year and help the team. They did that with the first 3 picks who will play a lot and were very productive players in top programs. At the conclusion of Friday, I believed the Bills did very well.

The RB & WR look promising. They'll probably make the team. CB was a flyer.

Yet the focus of the responses is a developmental QB who was the 42nd and last pick of an extended 4th round...meaning he's basically a 5th rounder. Get a grip. He gets a year or more to develop while Taylor starts. May not amount to much but he wasn't a high pick anyhow.

Overall, a very good draft for the Bills.

[mysticsoto]

Is it too much to ask that a project drafted in the fourth or fifth round and may never develop into a starter but hold a role as a back-up not have accuracy issues on the most important throws in the game? I'm certainly willing to give Jones some leash but there were other guys out there that could have been given the same shot.

If he didn't have those accuracy issues, he'd have been a 2nd rd pick or possibly a 1st and we never would have gotten him...

We need to wait now and see if he's capable of learning and fixing some things. Personally, I hope we can negotiate it out and pay Tyrod instead.

[YardRat]

If he didn't have those accuracy issues, he'd have been a 2nd rd pick or possibly a 1st and we never would have gotten him...

We need to wait now and see if he's capable of learning and fixing some things. Personally, I hope we can negotiate it out and pay Tyrod instead.

You're assuming the Bills wouldn't have pulled the trigger on him in the first or second, and considering the EJ thingie I don't think you can be too confident doing that.

As I've said before...I'm willing to wait...I'm willing to give him some slack...but that willingness doesn't make an accuracy issue go away.

[mysticsoto]

You're assuming the Bills wouldn't have pulled the trigger on him in the first or second, and considering the EJ thingie I don't think you can be too confident doing that.

As I've said before...I'm willing to wait...I'm willing to give him some slack...but that willingness doesn't make an accuracy issue go away.

Maybe. But then we'd have holes in the defense. I'd rather a strong defense and a decent qb than a good qb and a sucky defense.

[kingJofNYC]

Taking a QB on the 3rd day is usually setting said pick on fire, most don't develop, and more often than not have accuracy issues. Can they be overcome, I'm sure we can find some examples, but good bet that it's a no.

[Jry44]

STUPID. That is EXACTLY the expectation. IF you don't think that each and every pick is eventually going to start then pick someone else. Stupidest post ever.

I'm not going to sit here and throw insults at other adults by calling names, children do that. However if you want to see an exhibit of pure stupidity perhaps you should read the context and emotion in which your getting your panties in a bunch over a sport....

[Night Train]

Chris Burke, SI.com (http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/04/30/nfl-draft-grades-teams-winners-losers-picks-analysis): A-Burke (like many analysts) loved the pick of Reggie Ragland, who he called "a potential first-round fit for their defense." He noted the Top 10 potential of Shaq Lawson and the versatility of Adolphus Washington, while calling Cardale Jones "an ideal developmental candidate" as a fourth-round pick.
Matthew Fairburn, Syracuse.com (http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2016/04/nfl_draft_2016_grading_all_7_of_buffalo_bills_picks_including_overall_grade.html#0): A-Fairburn has some individual grades for each pick that are worth checking out. He dings Lawson (shoulder) and Ragland (enlarged aorta) a bit for their health issues, but notes that they should be great players when they're on the field. Jones was "worth the risk" at the end of the fourth, and Jonathan Williams and Kolby Listenbee should improve after recovering from injuries.
Dan Kadar, SBNation.com (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2016/4/30/11544232/nfl-draft-2016-grades-winners-losers-analysis): A-Kadar says Ragland "will be a starter for years in Buffalo." Like most others, he calls Jones the most questionable pick, but hedges it by noting that he's "only questionable in the sense that Jones is a big project." He calls Listenbee "one of [his] favorite picks of the draft."
Chad Reuter, NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000657476/article/2016-nfl-draft-quicksnap-grades-for-afc-teams): A-While Reuter says Lawson "isn't the physically dominating player Mario Williams is," he likes the pick. Even more, he thinks Ragland will "lead the Bills' defense for ten years." He believes that Williams "would have been a second- or third-round pick without the injury, so that was a good pull," and that Kevon Seymour "is a better player than his sixth-round draft status indicates."
Steve Palazzolo, ProFootballFocus.com (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/04/30/draft-2016-nfl-draft-grades-for-all-32-teams/): A-The analytics site calls Lawson a Top 10 defender against the run and the pass, but notes Ragland's weakness in pass coverage. They praise the Washington pick, giving him the "third-best pass rush grade among the draft’s interior defensive linemen in 2015." Jones is "worth a developmental shot, even though his accuracy between six and 30 yards is among the worst in the class," and Listenbee "may be the fastest player in the draft."



Mel Kiper, ESPN.com (http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/insider/story/_/id/15230437/2016-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-grades-draft-class-every-nfl-team): BThe preeminent draft guru is fine with the Bills' class, praising the picks of Lawson and Ragland despite Lawson's shoulder issues and the price of trading up for Ragland. He says of Washington, "he can be a penetrator from the interior, and early in the season I wouldn't have suspected he'd be available this late." Echoing another common sentiment, Kiper write, "Cardale Jones is nowhere close to starting an NFL game, but he doesn't need to be, and the value is fine."

[SpikedLemonade]

Some nice work here Night Train.

Thanks.

[k-oneputt]

At least Cardale gives you a chance with his physical makeup.
He has a big arm and can throw it, unlike the other 250 lb qb who throws like a fat girl in a dart league.

[DraftBoy]

At least Cardale gives you a chance with his physical makeup.
He has a big arm and can throw it, unlike the other 250 lb qb who throws like a fat girl in a dart league.

I'm not even sure I completely understand that analogy but it gave me a good chuckle.

[k-oneputt]

I'm not even sure I completely understand that analogy but it gave me a good chuckle.

I guess you haven't watched EJ throw a football
Shouldn't even have to elaborate on it.
6'4"250 lbs and his arm sucks.

[DraftBoy]

I guess you haven't watched EJ throw a football
Shouldn't even have to elaborate on it.
6'4"250 lbs and his arm sucks.

Yea...I wasn't questioning it, just saying it was funny.

[trapezeus]

Taking a QB on the 3rd day is usually setting said pick on fire, most don't develop, and more often than not have accuracy issues. Can they be overcome, I'm sure we can find some examples, but good bet that it's a no.

if you are looking for a back up who can go .500 for 3-4 games, a 5th round pick may be all you need. .500 backup is a whaley metric that he's referenced before

[swiper]

I'm not going to sit here and throw insults at other adults by calling names, children do that. However if you want to see an exhibit of pure stupidity perhaps you should read the context and emotion in which your getting your panties in a bunch over a sport....

It's a stupid pick by a lousy GM. Your clearly the one wearing panties.

[Pinkerton Security]

It's a stupid pick by a lousy GM. Your clearly the one wearing panties.

the late 4th round is exactly the spot you'd expect to draft a developmental QB who was undefeated and won a national championship at a big time school. He has a great arm and throws a pretty deep ball. I dont know what you expect with a 4th round pick, but then I dont get trolls in general.

[Arm of Harm]

Night Train wrote:

> Yet the focus of the responses is a developmental QB who was the 42nd and last pick of an extended 4th round

I'm not worried about the wasted fourth round pick. The vast majority of fourth rounders don't amount to much. My disappointment with the pick is because it reinforces my belief that Doug Whaley cannot be trusted to evaluate QB talent. If defenses catch up with Tyrod Taylor, or if he leaves in free agency, the Bills will be without a starting caliber QB, and without a GM capable of adequately evaluating QB talent in the draft.

There are two reasons for a team to over-emphasize physical gifts when looking at QBs. One is political. If (when?) the QB doesn't work out, they can say, "Well, we took a chance on a guy who has all the physical tools you'd want. Sometimes things just don't work out." The other reason is that the two most important traits for a QB--accuracy and fast information processing speed--are more difficult to evaluate than raw physical tools. A GM or scout might be able to see a QB's physical tools, without being as clearly able to see the other, more important traits.

After becoming GM, Whaley went "all in" on E.J. He used the Bills' first round picks in 2014 and 2015 on Sammy Watkins; leaving himself without a Plan B if (when?) E.J. failed. There were good quarterbacks available in the 2014 draft--especially Derek Carr. At the time, people on discussion boards just like this one praised Whaley for being aggressive, being willing to bet the farm on E.J., etc. Some even suggested this risk taking was an indication of a high testosterone level. The problem with all this is that other than his physical traits, there was nothing about E.J. which would suggest he'd be a successful starting QB in the NFL. Had he returned for his final year of college, he would have ridden the bench while Jameis Winston started. Like E.J. Manuel, Cardale Jones has great physical gifts. Also like E.J., Jones proved unable to hold onto a starting position at the college level. Also like E.J., there is nothing about Cardale Jones, other than his physical gifts, which would suggest he could succeed at the NFL level.

[elroy16]

PFF flounders on Bills grade.

Round 1 - take guy with bum shoulder

Round 2 - take LB that can't cover in the emerging NFL pass game

Round 3 - take Corbin Bryant's twin

THEN the GM feels obliged to get some offense reacting by taking the worst QB that was drafted, a RB (why another?) and a WR.



I'm glad you checked out Shaq's shoulder and watched every snap of all of the draft picks. Great insight.

[swiper]

I'm glad you checked out Shaq's shoulder and watched every snap of all of the draft picks. Great insight.


You blind homers continue to show how you wear blinders.

[YardRat]

Night Train wrote:

> Yet the focus of the responses is a developmental QB who was the 42nd and last pick of an extended 4th round

I'm not worried about the wasted fourth round pick. The vast majority of fourth rounders don't amount to much. My disappointment with the pick is because it reinforces my belief that Doug Whaley cannot be trusted to evaluate QB talent. If defenses catch up with Tyrod Taylor, or if he leaves in free agency, the Bills will be without a starting caliber QB, and without a GM capable of adequately evaluating QB talent in the draft.

There are two reasons for a team to over-emphasize physical gifts when looking at QBs. One is political. If (when?) the QB doesn't work out, they can say, "Well, we took a chance on a guy who has all the physical tools you'd want. Sometimes things just don't work out." The other reason is that the two most important traits for a QB--accuracy and fast information processing speed--are more difficult to evaluate than raw physical tools. A GM or scout might be able to see a QB's physical tools, without being as clearly able to see the other, more important traits.

After becoming GM, Whaley went "all in" on E.J. He used the Bills' first round picks in 2014 and 2015 on Sammy Watkins; leaving himself without a Plan B if (when?) E.J. failed. There were good quarterbacks available in the 2014 draft--especially Derek Carr. At the time, people on discussion boards just like this one praised Whaley for being aggressive, being willing to bet the farm on E.J., etc. Some even suggested this risk taking was an indication of a high testosterone level. The problem with all this is that other than his physical traits, there was nothing about E.J. which would suggest he'd be a successful starting QB in the NFL. Had he returned for his final year of college, he would have ridden the bench while Jameis Winston started. Like E.J. Manuel, Cardale Jones has great physical gifts. Also like E.J., Jones proved unable to hold onto a starting position at the college level. Also like E.J., there is nothing about Cardale Jones, other than his physical gifts, which would suggest he could succeed at the NFL level.


Good first post.

Welcome :beers:

[swiper]

Jones was drafted by Whaley because he saw an athlete.

Whaley doesn't know what a QB really is.

[The Jokeman]

Yeah, it should be, especially if you're one of those "EJ is trash because accuracy can't be taught" guys. Those are the throws that make the difference between 'keeper' and 'pretender' at the QB position.
Jones as raw a QB as they come. It tells me Whaley has faith in Tyrod or if he fails we take a better prospect next year but still develop Jones as needed.

[elroy16]

You blind homers continue to show how you wear blinders.


Shaq has played 2+ years on his, "bum shoulder," including his 12.5 sack,
24.5 tackles for loss season that led him to be a 1st round draft pick. He's a perfect fit for this defense and basically everyone who scouts or watches football for a living loves the pick.

Ragland is an physical LB that excels against the run. He may lack a bit against the pass, but can rush the passer and play zone closer to the LOS. Sure, you probably don't want him to run down the seam against gronk, but I doubt he's a liability this year. Teams also run the ball 40-45% of the time, so it's not like there's zero need for defenders that are strong against the run.


You complain about the LB that may not be perfect against pass but aren't happy about the DT who excels at rushing the passer up the middle? What do you want when you're facing Brady?


They run the ball a ton and last year the top 2 runners missed a decent amount of time each. Why is drafting a 2-3rd round rated RB in the 5th a big deal?


Sammy was their only deep threat for a significant amount of the year which allowed teams to roll safeties over the top and negate the deep ball. Getting another burner was a smart move.


It's not about being a homer and loving every move. It's really not hard to see why they made their picks and be able to hope they work out. They might not, but it's extremely doubtful that the entire draft class sucks like you seem to believe.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Everyone who said the Bills did a good job are fair and balanced, while everyone who gave the Bills anything below an A- are hacks.

Am I doing this right?

[elroy16]

Everyone who said the Bills did a good job are fair and balanced, while everyone who gave the Bills anything below an A- are hacks.

Am I doing this right?


Really? Is that seriously what you got from my post, assuming that's directed at me.


I said it's not hard to see why people hope this draft class helps turn things around. I also said that it's possible it doesn't happen. It's probably going to be somewhere in between.

You can say you didn't like the picks, but slamming every move and pick or questioning their motives is what doesn't make sense.

[Jry44]

It's a stupid pick by a lousy GM. Your clearly the one wearing panties.

Around my neck...

I'll leave it at that and see if you can figure the rest of it out.

[Arm of Harm]

Really? Is that seriously what you got from my post, assuming that's directed at me.


I said it's not hard to see why people hope this draft class helps turn things around. I also said that it's possible it doesn't happen. It's probably going to be somewhere in between.

You can say you didn't like the picks, but slamming every move and pick or questioning their motives is what doesn't make sense.

> slamming every move and pick or questioning their motives is what doesn't make sense

It's been said that the farther back into the past you look, the farther into the future you can see. With that saying in mind, let's look at some of the Bills' past drafts.

2013: E.J. Manuel, Robert Woods, Kiko Alonso, Marquise Goodwin, Duke Williams, Jonathan Meeks, Dustin Hopkins, Chris Gragg.

Woods had an off year last year, and Alonso (along with another player) was traded away so that Philly could move up a few slots in the first round. Other than those two players, the 2013 draft didn't produce anything.

2010: C.J. Spiller, Torell Troupe, Alex Carrington, Marcus Easley, Ed Wang, Arthur Moats, Danny Batten, Levi Brown, Kyle Galloway.

Other than Spiller's one good season, that draft provided very little for the Buffalo Bills.

2006: Donte Whitner, John McCargo, Ashton Youboty, Ko Simpson, Kyle Williams, Brad Butler, Keith Ellison, Terrance Pennington, Aaron Merz.

Kyle Williams was an excellent find. Other than that, nothing.

2002: Mike Williams, Josh Reed, Ryan Denney, Coy Wire, Justin Bannan, Kevin Thomas, Mike Pucillo, Rodney Wright, Jarrett Ferguson, Dominique Stevenson.

A nothing draft.

Granted, in most drafts over the last 10 - 20 years, the Bills have typically come away with at least something. But they've come up with nothing, or close to nothing, often enough to require us to bear that in mind as a very realistic possibility. Whether this draft is another "nothing" draft remains to be seen. My personal view is that we'll probably get solid contributions out of at least one of the first three players we took. (Though I'm hoping that at very worst, we'll go 2-for-3 on those guys. I'd really like to see us go 3-for-3.) But that "personal view" stuff is based on a gut feeling only. Maybe my gut feeling is wrong and BuffaloRedleg's gut feeling is right.

[Mr. Pink]

Draft ratings after they happen are totally bullchit.

No team ever gets a bad draft grade immediately after.

So...who gives a crap what pundits think a day later?

[stuckincincy]

Draft ratings after they happen are totally bullchit.

No team ever gets a bad draft grade immediately after.

So...who gives a crap what pundits think a day later?

The "name" pundits surely care. If they pan a team to excess (in the eyes of the team), they find themselves excluded from access in subtle ways. No more getting wined and dined, etc.

As far as these crystal-ball things can go, the newspaper sports guys in towns without a franchise toss out decent opinions IMO. They aren't getting the free ducats and the "up close and personal" interviews, so they offer straightforward opinions. Again...IMO.

[YardRat]

I absolutely think drafts can be 'graded' immediately after, based on how well the team addressed perceived needs. Buffalo gets a good grade for the early part of the draft by bringing in players for positions that desperately needed upgrading...edge rusher, inside linebacker, and defensive lineman. They get a poor grade after that for ignoring offensive line, safety and tight end.

Sorry, but I find it incredulous that there weren't guys available on Day 3 to push Chris Gragg, Kuondijo and Duke Williams off of the roster.

[DraftBoy]

I absolutely think drafts can be 'graded' immediately after, based on how well the team addressed perceived needs. Buffalo gets a good grade for the early part of the draft by bringing in players for positions that desperately needed upgrading...edge rusher, inside linebacker, and defensive lineman. They get a poor grade after that for ignoring offensive line, safety and tight end.

Sorry, but I find it incredulous that there weren't guys available on Day 3 to push Chris Gragg, Kuondijo and Duke Williams off of the roster.

Grades are subjective to the board your basing it off of.

When I was running BBD, I know of two instances where a contact I had with a team contacted me based on my board and told me Player X was too high or too low. I was never able to figure out if they were trying to sell me a smoke screen to start a conversation on a player or just give me an honest heads up. My point is that when I did draft grades for the Bills on that site it was based on where I ranked a player, which could of been totally different then where the Bills ranked him.

For example CBS's rankings had SS Keanu Neal as a the #29 prospect overall but Atlanta took him at #17. We took Lawson (#12 overall) at #19 so by default we get a better grade despite Atlanta saying that they had Lawson lower on their board than Neal. How do we evaluate that fairly? I'm just not sure it makes a lot of sense unless you're putting the work in to watch the prospects yourself.

[elroy16]

>

Granted, in most drafts over the last 10 - 20 years, the Bills have typically come away with at least something. But they've come up with nothing, or close to nothing, often enough to require us to bear that in mind as a very realistic possibility. Whether this draft is another "nothing" draft remains to be seen. My personal view is that we'll probably get solid contributions out of at least one of the first three players we took. (Though I'm hoping that at very worst, we'll go 2-for-3 on those guys. I'd really like to see us go 3-for-3.) But that "personal view" stuff is based on a gut feeling only. Maybe my gut feeling is wrong and BuffaloRedleg's gut feeling is right.


That's about where I'm at with this draft. I expect Shaq to at least be a solid contributor. I'm hoping Ragland can be a solid 3-down LB, maybe not a complete, All-pro LB, but strong against the run and serviceable against the pass. I'm hoping that Washington can turn into a rotational DT that provides a decent inside pass rush. Generally after the 3rd round, I try to temper my enthusiasm for picks. I don't expect any of the later picks to see much of the field this year except if there are injuries or they're out of the playoff race late in the year.


The drafts you pointed out are pretty rough to look at. I'll fully admit that this class could end up being the same, I can't deny that. My frustration/annoyance comes out when I'm called a homer for liking the draft or defending it. If you don't like the draft, give me legitimate reasons, don't just say, bum shoulder when the guy's played on that should at a very high level for 2 years. If you don't like the LB because he might not be great against the pass, acknowledge that the next draft pick is very good against the pass. For me, it's very easy to see what they were trying to accomplish this draft. That doesn't mean that this draft class won't be terrible, but it also doesn't mean I'm a homer and think this is the best draft class ever.

[swiper]

My frustration/annoyance comes out when I'm called a homer for liking the draft or defending it. If you don't like the draft, give me legitimate reasons, don't just say, bum shoulder when the guy's played on that should at a very high level for 2 years. If you don't like the LB because he might not be great against the pass, acknowledge that the next draft pick is very good against the pass. For me, it's very easy to see what they were trying to accomplish this draft. That doesn't mean that this draft class won't be terrible, but it also doesn't mean I'm a homer and think this is the best draft class ever.

I gave you facts. You can't see reality through your rose colored glasses. I'll be back with your I told you so later. I been watching the Bills buffoonery for over forty years. And nothing has changed with this OBD group of clowns. It's funny how they can do it right in places like Pittsburgh, Green Bay, etc, etc, etc....

A lot of it has to do with dumb fans like yourself refusing to take off your rose-colored glasses.

#4 Defense under Schwartz two years ago. What does OBD do? Bring in Rex Ryan to, piece by piece, dismantle it.

Watch the Eagles my friend. Schwartz and Frank Reich. They are going to be what the Bills should be.

You are a homer.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Really? Is that seriously what you got from my post, assuming that's directed at me.


I said it's not hard to see why people hope this draft class helps turn things around. I also said that it's possible it doesn't happen. It's probably going to be somewhere in between.

You can say you didn't like the picks, but slamming every move and pick or questioning their motives is what doesn't make sense.

You are wrong to assume that my post was directed in any way at you. I have no clue what you are talking about.

But if the shoe fits....

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I absolutely think drafts can be 'graded' immediately after, based on how well the team addressed perceived needs. Buffalo gets a good grade for the early part of the draft by bringing in players for positions that desperately needed upgrading...edge rusher, inside linebacker, and defensive lineman. They get a poor grade after that for ignoring offensive line, safety and tight end.

Sorry, but I find it incredulous that there weren't guys available on Day 3 to push Chris Gragg, Kuondijo and Duke Williams off of the roster.

You can't pick for positional value in the 5th-7th rounds, once you are past the 4th it's rare to find value for any specific position. At that point you should be going BPA and shooting for high upside. I mean, one of the reasons people are upset at take Johnathan Williams is that we have depth with LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams... but we took Karlos Williams when we already had depth with LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson. We took Nick O'Leary in the 6th last year and he failed to push Gragg off the roster as well.

Is some random 6th round TE a lock to be better then Jim Dray, a multi-year starter? This is not an endorsement of Dray, but a statement about the talent level at the tail end of drafts.

[Arm of Harm]

Good first post.

Welcome :beers:

Thanks, YardRat, for the words of welcome. :)

[Arm of Harm]

I absolutely think drafts can be 'graded' immediately after, based on how well the team addressed perceived needs. Buffalo gets a good grade for the early part of the draft by bringing in players for positions that desperately needed upgrading...edge rusher, inside linebacker, and defensive lineman. They get a poor grade after that for ignoring offensive line, safety and tight end.

Sorry, but I find it incredulous that there weren't guys available on Day 3 to push Chris Gragg, Kuondijo and Duke Williams off of the roster.

I think that you and I are mostly in agreement about this. If (for example) you have a team with problems on the offensive line, the draft can be a good way to address those problems. The Bills have often neglected their OL on draft day. A solid offensive lineman can have a long career. The Bills are still getting contributions out of Eric Wood, long after the Bills and Spiller went their separate ways.

But just as it's important to address need, it's also important to respond flexibly if the draft class' cupboard is bare at a position you want, or very richly stocked at a position where you don't have much of a need. The Arizona Cardinals were criticized for drafting Larry Fitzgerald, because they had good talent at WR already. Drafting Fitzgerald looks much better in hindsight than it may have seemed at the time.

When the Bills have gotten themselves into trouble, it's often because they've developed a "plan" to address a particular position in a particular year, while ignoring whether the draft class could supply the talent they wanted. For example: Marv and Jauron wanted the Bills to at least have a credible defense in Jauron's first year as head coach. It was felt that the two most critical missing pieces of that defense were SS and DT. So Marv went into the 2006 draft with the intention of using his first two draft picks on a SS and a DT. Because he was locked in to those two positions, he selected Whitner and McCargo--neither of whom deserved to be picked in the first round. Likewise, the Bills were locked in to the QB position early in the 2013 draft. That's one of the two reasons why they used a first round pick on a guy who shouldn't have been taken before the fourth. (The other reason is their inability to evaluate QB talent.)

What I'm saying is that on draft day, a team should be very aware of its own needs. But it should also be vividly aware of which players are likely to outperform their draft position, and which are likely to underperform. Ideally, you want a player who outperforms his draft position, while also filling a position of need.

But let's say you can't have something as good as that. In that case, maybe the GM should seek to trade into a draft slot where you can get a guy like that. Failing that, maybe the GM should compromise a little on getting the best player possible, in order to fill a position of need. But there are limits to how far such compromises should go. If the difference in player quality is significant enough, it makes more sense to go with the better player, even if he doesn't fill a need. (As the Cardinals did when they drafted Fitzgerald.)

[mightysimi]

since when has rounds 5-7 been about anything but special teams? If you get a guy to compete for a spot there, perfect but certainly not expected. I want fast guys on ST. Like WR, RB and CB.

[YardRat]

You can't pick for positional value in the 5th-7th rounds, once you are past the 4th it's rare to find value for any specific position. At that point you should be going BPA and shooting for high upside. I mean, one of the reasons people are upset at take Johnathan Williams is that we have depth with LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams... but we took Karlos Williams when we already had depth with LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson. We took Nick O'Leary in the 6th last year and he failed to push Gragg off the roster as well.

Is some random 6th round TE a lock to be better then Jim Dray, a multi-year starter? This is not an endorsement of Dray, but a statement about the talent level at the tail end of drafts.

Obviously the talent level drops off in later rounds, but if you're taking a shot at high risk gambles who has a better chance of making the team, a player drafted in a position that is already thin for the team or a position that is deeper? It's not like, generally speaking, the 'grades' on these guys vary a lot...a cornerback graded as a 7th round pick and a TE or olineman graded as a 7th round pick are pretty equal, BPA-wise.

[elroy16]

I gave you facts. You can't see reality through your rose colored glasses. I'll be back with your I told you so later. I been watching the Bills buffoonery for over forty years. And nothing has changed with this OBD group of clowns. It's funny how they can do it right in places like Pittsburgh, Green Bay, etc, etc, etc....

A lot of it has to do with dumb fans like yourself refusing to take off your rose-colored glasses.

#4 Defense under Schwartz two years ago. What does OBD do? Bring in Rex Ryan to, piece by piece, dismantle it.

Watch the Eagles my friend. Schwartz and Frank Reich. They are going to be what the Bills should be.

You are a homer.



I'm going to assume the following statements you made are the "facts" you speak of, if I'm wrong, please feel free to correct me.



PFF flounders on Bills grade.

Round 1 - take guy with bum shoulder


Lawson injured his shoulder his freshman year. He played on that shoulder for 2+ years. He may need surgery on it that would sideline him for 4-6 months. Those are facts.

You made the assumption that he has a bum shoulders based on those facts. I have not seen a single report that said he won't be able to return to 100% even if he has surgery. If you think a single surgery equates to a bum shoulder/knee or whatever, then you aren't paying attention to the NFL these days.

So no, that is not a fact, it's a flimsy assumption based on other facts.



Round 2 - take LB that can't cover in the emerging NFL pass game


This is probably your most accurate statement, but it's still debatable, and therefore, not a fact.



Big hitter when playing in short zones; will crush receivers running crossing routes.
Reads and attacks screens, works very well downhill when in coverage.
Can be exploited when isolated on good running backs and tight ends in coverage.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/03/24/draft-pff-scouting-report-reggie-ragland-lb-alabama/

Those are some notes from PFF's scouting report, from people who have watched every snap of his. Yes, he's probably not going to excel in pass coverage and be able to run with Gronk down the seam, but he could play a number of specific roles on 3rd down and not be a liability. You could be right and he could turn into a liability in pass coverage, but at this point it's not a fact.

So again, not a fact. Even if you are right, it's still not a fact since he hasn't played a down in the NFL.




Round 3 - take Corbin Bryant's twin


Also, not really a fact. They are close to the same size, and potentially will have similar production, but it's still not a fact. CB was an honorable mention for the All-Big Ten team. Washington was a 2nd team All-Big Ten and was named a 1st team All-American by the Sporting News. CB was undrafted. Washington was a 3rd round pick which is about where he was projected to go. As a senior in HS, Washington was named Ohio's Gatorade Basketball Player of the Year. Irrelevant in terms of football production, but show's what type of all around athlete he is.

It's possible these guys have similar production in the NFL, but at this point we don't know. Furthermore, Kyle Williams is getting up in age and they're going to need someone to replace him. Bryant isn't the best DT in the NFL, but he's serviceable. It wouldn't be ideal if Washington became similar to CB, but he could turn out worse.

So again, not really a fact, more like your opinion. The pick also makes sense in that they needed additional interior lineman. You said it's a passing league, why not go for a DT whose best attribute is rushing the passer?




THEN the GM feels obliged to get some offense reacting by taking the worst QB that was drafted, a RB (why another?) and a WR.


The first half of this sentence is hilarious. You know for a fact that Whaley felt obligated to draft offense, so he just went ahead and picked a few random guys? I'd love to know how you know this.

Cardale Jones is a long shot to pan out. He's about as raw as it gets. He probably won't pan out, but most QB's don't pan out, especially if they're drafted after the first round. Fine, I guess that's a "fact."

You ask, why another RB? Seriously? McCory and Karlos both got dinged up last year. They run the ball a ton. McCoy is coming to the latter part of his career. People always love to say you can find good RB's late in the draft, well that's exactly what they're looking for here. Pretty easy to see the merit in this pick.

A WR with speed that might be able to help pull coverage from Sammy? Sounds like a good idea in the 6th round. These guys aren't panning out at a high rate, but the idea makes perfect sense.

I would have liked to see some O-line help drafted, that's one of the main things over the years that has frustrated me the most about the Bills. The other is their lack of drafting QB's in the first few rounds.


I'll agree that going from a 4-3, attacking, simplified defense to a gap controlling, read and react, 3-4 defense was a bad decision. That decision basically wasted last year. At this point though, that decision is over and done with. They can't go back on it at this point, not until at least next year if they decide to fire Rex if the defense is bad again. If the defense is bad again, I will be on board with the Fire Rex wagon. At this point, I've chosen to quit dwelling on this decision though since there's nothing we can do about, I guess that makes me a homer.


I like how you point out the Steelers, when the Bills GM is from the Steelers organization and is trying to mirror what they do.



I guess I'm a "homer" in that I can use rational thought to understand why decisions are made by other people. I like a lot of what the Bills have done recent and there's been times when I hated what the Bills have done. My wife thought I got fired or something the day they extended Dick Jauron's contract I was so upset. There's a big difference between loving every single move, hating every single move, and understanding every single move. Recently I've understand almost every move they've made. That doesn't mean I love them or hate them, I just understand what they are trying to do. If you think that makes me a "homer," well I don't really know what to say.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Obviously the talent level drops off in later rounds, but if you're taking a shot at high risk gambles who has a better chance of making the team, a player drafted in a position that is already thin for the team or a position that is deeper? It's not like, generally speaking, the 'grades' on these guys vary a lot...a cornerback graded as a 7th round pick and a TE or olineman graded as a 7th round pick are pretty equal, BPA-wise.

That doesn't mean there's a high upside player to take at that position, though.

Generally, people break the draft down into incredibly small pieces but there are basically only three categories at issue here:
A guy's physical tools (including his injury risk)
His college production (including his competition)
His character.

Guys who score well in those three categories are uncontroversial first round picks. Someone who falls all the way to the 3rd day of the draft has serious deficiencies in one or more of those areas. So then the question is, which of those areas do you skimp on? For me, I would rather take a player who has NFL quality physical tools and try to coach around the rest. So that would lead me to someone like Cardale Jones, who is huge and can throw a football through a brick wall, over someone like Kellen Moore, who is basically what happens if you take an NFL QBs brain and transplant it in a high school QBs body.

This is what I want to read about our late round picks:
"Seymour's lost playing time coupled with his injury issues do not bode well for his draft standing, but he's got decent size and quality speed and athleticism doesn't appear to be a problem."

and
"Monster-sized, long-armed, physical specimen with the raw talent to emerge as a dominating NFL right tackle in any type of blocking scheme. Failed to live up to expectations in college as a result of tumultuous career marred by tragedy, suspensions, injuries and benchings. High-risk, high-reward wild card who must convince decision-makers he's worth gambling on. Has already been removed from many draft boards and must be paired with a veteran position coach nuanced in managing undisciplined, high-maintenance players."

and
"Raw receiver who is still learning how to play to his size. His average athleticism won't impress NFL teams, but they were impressed with the way he caught the ball at the combine. Lewis could be a third day target but will need time to grow as a receiver in order to transition from small school prospect to NFL receiver."

rather then:
"Carder is a bit undersized and doesn't have the speed to start right away in the NFL. He diagnoses plays quickly, but his athletic ability can be exposed when he has to dip his plant step to drop back into coverage and scan the field for crossing routes. He needs to work toward the ball to be productive, but when he does, he has set records in the Mountain West for taking the ball to the house after interceptions. All of his production comes off his instincts and many will question his athletic ability as he moves to the next level"

Because I have more faith in a guy overcoming his inexperience or personal demons then I do that he'll develop NFL quality speed or strength once he's already in his early 20's. It's just my personal draft philosophy.

[Arm of Harm]

Illuminatus wrote:

************
Generally, people break the draft down into incredibly small pieces but there are basically only three categories at issue here:
A guy's physical tools (including his injury risk)
His college production (including his competition)
His character.
************

There are 1 - 2 additional categories which should be added to this list.

1) Information processing speed
2) Passing accuracy (for quarterbacks only)

You made a good point about there being limits to the extent that strength and fitness trainers can improve a player's size or strength. But there are equally sharp limits to the amount that good coaching can improve the two traits I've just listed.

To give an example of information processing speed: C.J. Spiller is a much better athlete than Fred Jackson had been even in his prime. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Spiller was a better football player. Jackson has better information processing ability than Spiller. He's better at seeing holes than Spiller, more skillful in eluding defenders. Good information processing ability is useful for players at most positions, but it's especially useful for quarterbacks. And no amount of coaching, teaching, or training can possibly give someone like Spiller the same information processing ability Fred Jackson has.

When you're first learning to throw a football, odds are you'll do it wrong. But then someone takes you aside and teaches you to spread your fingers out when holding the ball. Teaches you to stand sideways, and to hold the ball by your ear. This is basic stuff, which is typically learned in high school, if not middle school. Once a quarterback has learned those basic things, he throws the ball around in practice, and masters the skill set he's learning. By the time he graduates from high school, he'll typically be fairly close to his accuracy ceiling. Joe Montana, for example, was an exceptionally accurate passer as a high school QB.

Can a QB's accuracy be improved upon through better footwork, or by working on the mechanics of his throwing motion? Yes. But there are limits. If a QB isn't already an accurate passer in college, odds are very strongly against his becoming accurate in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is a good example of this. He was a good, accurate passer in college. But mechanical flaws were holding him back, preventing him from reaching that last little bit of accuracy he could otherwise have achieved. Those mechanical flaws were mostly fixed in the NFL, causing him to become even more accurate. Fixing a QB's flawed mechanics can provide a slight boost to a QB's accuracy. But that's all it's typically going to do. Teams are fooling themselves if they think that "good coaching" is a magic elixir which can turn lead (an inaccurate college QB) into gold (an accurate NFL QB).