Bart Scott on Rex's system, individual sacrifice, etc

[elroy16]

I looked around for this article/interview, but didn't see it posted. There's interesting stuff from someone who played and excelled in Rex's system.

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2016/05/09/bart-scott-confrontation-winning-defense-convo-bills-lb-reggie-ragland-individual-sacrifice-rex/




On Reggie Ragland being the soul of Buffalo’s defense he once was: “And that’s what he’s looking for. He’s got great players on that side but he’s looking for a heartbeat. That’s what he’s looking for. I think Reggie has the potential to do that. He has the mentality and the heart to do that.


On individual sacrifice in Ryan’s defense: “I tell people all the time that the easiest thing to get in football is stats. The easiest thing. But who are you going to screw to get them? Instead of setting the edge, are you going to rush the passer every time for the one sack you get in a game? If you get one sack a game, that’s 16 sacks. That’s a tremendous season, right? But how many times are you going to give up a big run because you’re getting up the field and they’re running right past you, right in-between? That’s why I tell people that Terrell Suggs was one of the best outside linebacker combination guys to ever do it. Because I watched guys on the Colts sprint up the field for years. Yeah, they go to the Pro Bowl and have a lot of gaudy numbers but they’re the 20th ranked defense in the league. Suggs was able to do that on the No. 1-ranked, the No. 2-ranked because he did it when he was supposed to. He got his sacks after he did his job. It wasn’t ‘get in a wide 9 and just get up the field.’ You’ve got to play the run on the way to the sack.”


On players not buying in here: “So when the conversation started and some of the leaders like Mario speak out and they say ‘This isn’t working’ or ‘this works and this doesn’t work,’ who’s there to tell them ‘No, no. You’re wrong. Sit down?’ So when we were in Baltimore, we started 3-3 and then lost like three straight but you had me there, you had Marques Douglas there, you had guys saying ‘No, no, no. We do it this way. We’re all in this together. We’re not deviating from the plan because it works.’ He didn’t have that. But now he’s got some guys like Sammy Watkins who spoke up on his behalf. He had other players on the defense who spoke up on his behalf.
“ Now if that happens this year, you’ll have that ‘Whoa, whoa, whoa.’ He has his own guys now. These are my guys now. And also he has the greatest safety to ever play the game sitting there coaching going ‘Whoa, whoa, whoa, nah, nah, nah. Not only did this system get me to the Hall of Fame’ but this system, I think the worst I ever finished — and this is with Ray Lewis hurt, Ed Reed hurt, Chris McAlister hurt — was seventh in my career. I think I finished first four times, second a bunch of times and third a bunch of times. This was in Baltimore and New York. So you can’t just say ‘Of course. You had Ray Lewis.’ No, no, no. A lot of this stuff happened with our Hall of Fame players getting pulled hamstrings out for the season.



The proof is in the pudding. Does everyone on defense buy in and we see the Bills defense turn into a top 10 unit and lead them to the playoffs? Or has Rex's system been figured out and the defense is doomed regardless of whether or not the players buy in?

[EDS]

I looked around for this article/interview, but didn't see it posted. There's interesting stuff from someone who played and excelled in Rex's system.

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2016/05/09/bart-scott-confrontation-winning-defense-convo-bills-lb-reggie-ragland-individual-sacrifice-rex/







The proof is in the pudding. Does everyone on defense buy in and we see the Bills defense turn into a top 10 unit and lead them to the playoffs? Or has Rex's system been figured out and the defense is doomed regardless of whether or not the players buy in?

When was the last "top 10" Rex Ryan defense and how are we defining "top 10" for this purposes?

[sukie]

" Top Ten List " ala Daaaaaaaaaaaavid Letterman!!!

[Joe Fo Sho]

When was the last "top 10" Rex Ryan defense and how are we defining "top 10" for this purposes?

Using the yards per play metric, Rex Ryan defenses have been in the top 10 every year since 2005 except the last 2 seasons. That includes the top defense twice, and in the top 5 six times.

2015 - 24th
2014 - 14th
2013 - 9th
2012 - 6th
2011 - 4th
2010 - 3rd
2009 - 1st
2008 - 3rd
2007 - 8th
2006 - 1st
2005 - 2nd

[Turf]

I remember the one game we lost where Mario didn't play his role and the HB caught an easy swing pass into the end zone while Mario was rushing to the QB. I remember how pissed Ryan was on the sideline. Perfect example of not buying in.

[Joe Fo Sho]

I remember the one game we lost where Mario didn't play his role and the HB caught an easy swing pass into the end zone while Mario was rushing to the QB. I remember how pissed Ryan was on the sideline. Perfect example of not buying in.

That was the New England night game, right before half time. Rex did everything but call out Mario in his TV interview on the way to the locker room at half time.

[YardRat]

Using the yards per play metric, Rex Ryan defenses have been in the top 10 every year since 2005 except the last 2 seasons. That includes the top defense twice, and in the top 5 six times.

2015 - 24th
2014 - 14th
2013 - 9th
2012 - 6th
2011 - 4th
2010 - 3rd
2009 - 1st
2008 - 3rd
2007 - 8th
2006 - 1st
2005 - 2nd

So Bart Scott basically says statistics are meaningless, but to 'prove' Wrecks is a defensive genius we have to pull out...wait for it...a statistic.

Wanna see Wrecks' win/loss record after leaving Baltimore?

[Joe Fo Sho]

So Bart Scott basically says statistics are meaningless, but to 'prove' Wrecks is a defensive genius we have to pull out...wait for it...a statistic.

Wanna see Wrecks' win/loss record after leaving Baltimore?

Bart Scott actually is talking about the difference between individual statistics and...wait for it...team statistics.

All I did was answer a question, the topic was regarding defense not win total.

[YardRat]

Bart Scott actually is talking about the difference between individual statistics and...wait for it...team statistics.

All I did was answer a question, the topic was regarding defense not win total.

I wasn't mocking you for using a statistic, I was mocking the necessity to use a statistic to 'prove' Wrecks is a 'genius'.

[gebobs]

On Reggie Ragland being the soul of Buffalo’s defense he once was

Um...what? Has the fabric of time ripped around OBD?

[YardRat]

Um...what? Has the fabric of time ripped around OBD?

Shhhh...it's an alternative universe scenario. Bart Scott played for Buffalo, and Wrecks was a good head coach.

[Turf]

That was the New England night game, right before half time. Rex did everything but call out Mario in his TV interview on the way to the locker room at half time.

Yep, right before half time. Thank you.

[Mace]

Well, I think teams have figured out Ryan flavored defenses. I don't know though that Ryan can't improvise within the only scheme he wants to use.

In 2015 you had KC (7), Buf (19) Cleve (27), NO (31). KC is Ryan theory not scheme. Jets moved up two places not using it, Buf dropped 15 using it.

In 2014 you had NYJ (6), KC (7), Cleve (23), NO (31). Sort of tells me KC is on the right track using theory not scheme. Buf improved 6 places not using it.

In 2013 you had NO (4), Buf (10), NYJ (11), KC (24), NO was installing it, KC was installing the theory, Pettine was installing it.

Sort of have to remove KC for using theory not scheme, though it looks like the aggressive theory is sound. NO and Cleveland were just hapless so it comes down to the talent on Buf and NYJ, the Jets being mature in the scheme, Buf having better talent to not use it. But the Jets improved not using it in a brand new scheme.

I think the better more experienced HC's and/or QB's know how to work it by now. Reminds me of Jauron coming in with the once shiny but declining Tampa-2 and being unable to not use it.

On the other hand, moving up from 19th with some different talent, and vet experience in the system, shouldn't be so impossible, unless the teams in our division who have seen it or used it regularly for years know how to watch film of beating it.

My conclusion. Airball. Maybe you get the swish, maybe it sails over the top of the backboard. I don't like Ryans. I'm still hoping for the swish. Nothing to do now but wait and see.

[elroy16]

If they can shave off 3 points per game, they'll be around 10th in the league. Considering the amount of TDs given up where someone looked lost or got yelled at for an obvious mistake, I don't think that's unreasonable.

[Mace]

If they can shave off 3 points per game, they'll be around 10th in the league. Considering the amount of TDs given up where someone looked lost or got yelled at for an obvious mistake, I don't think that's unreasonable.

I'm not optimistic, that's my nature by now, but they aren't hopeless and I don't think being around 10th in the league is unreasonable. Not sure it's likely, but can't see it out of the equation either.

[elroy16]

I'm not optimistic, that's my nature by now, but they aren't hopeless and I don't think being around 10th in the league is unreasonable. Not sure it's likely, but can't see it out of the equation either.


I could see either way as well. I think with the percieved level of coaching and player talent, 10th best should be the floor. If they have another down year, I'll have a really hard time defending rex.

[Turf]

Until Ryan learns how to handle the no huddle which even I can see is a problem for him, I'm not sold on his prowess.

[Mace]

Until Ryan learns how to handle the no huddle which even I can see is a problem for him, I'm not sold on his prowess.

I'm not so sure I wouldn't rather have Roman, Lee & Lal being able to run one.

I kind of think the no huddle, or fast timing patterns (or fakes to one), are the wreck of the Ryan defense, like seams and TE's were the wreck of the tampa-2. Get the defense trying to defend that and start running 5 yards a pop. When it gets old, no huddle and timing, then repeat running. The defense gets substitution crazy and the offense has mismatches.

But if the Roman/Lee/Lal offense can work series faster, we can do the same thing with a rushing offense and some competent receivers out there, just in reverse.

Edit : Thinking about it, we have the worst hurry up offense I've ever seen, I think one other team is terrible but not near so bad, might be Miami.

[Mr. Pink]

The only stat on defense that matters is points allowed.

Here is Rexy's defensive ratings since becoming a head coach.

2015 -15th
2014 - 24th
2013 - 19th
2012 - 20th
2011 - 20th
2010 - 6th
2009 - 1st

Still optimistic? Still think it only has to do with his players buying in? Last year was Rex's best defensive effort since 2010. There's almost nothing there to expect him to shave 3 points a game off. Meanwhile the Jets went from that 24th under Ryan to 9th under Bowles while the Bills went from 4th to 15th.

[Topas]

what kind of ratings are these, Pink?


DVOA from footballoutsiders is the rating that I like the most. Because it adjusts for many things, strength of opponent among others. This says:

Baltimore Ravens (2005–2008) Defensive coordinator
2005 6th
2006 1st
2007 5th
2008 2nd

New York Jets (2009–2014) Head coach
2009 1st
2010 5th
2011 2nd
2012 9th
2013 12th
2014 21st


Buffalo Bills (2015–present) Head coach
2015 24th



Ok, that last three years, especially the last two are worrisome. Other than that he was very good. Especially getting the Jets to first in his first year is impressive. And the last year with Mario not giving a ****, maybe you can put an asterisk there.
But actually thats is the problem. Why is Mario playing if he does not give a ****. With the Patriots Bellicheck would have made him clean the whole shower room with a tooth brush. And with Rex, Mario simply keeps playing.
Rex not holding the players accountable is a huge problem. He is a better D coord than a head coach. Hopefully I am wrong. Maybe he will improve, especially with having now the players that fit his system. But he did not improve for many years, so why now?
Probably he will fail and the we can draft new players for the system of the next head coach next years. The Buffalo way...

[Forward_Lateral]

Last year was a mess. They should've de-activated Mario to send a message. If you don't want to do your job, you won't play, regardless of your career stats, or your paycheck.

[YardRat]

DVOA doesn't mean **** until they actually starting using it when recording points on a scoreboard.

Doesn't matter if you're playing New England or Cleveland, 24 points is still 24 points.

[chernobylwraiths]

Wasn't one of the big reasons his Jets defense went so well when he became head coach because he brought Scott over from the Ravens to help teach his defense? Wasn't able to do that here. Probably it is one of the main reasons Reed is now a coach here.

[Joe Fo Sho]

I wasn't mocking you for using a statistic, I was mocking the necessity to use a statistic to 'prove' Wrecks is a 'genius'.

Somebody said Rex was a genius?

[elroy16]

The only stat on defense that matters is points allowed.

Here is Rexy's defensive ratings since becoming a head coach.

2015 -15th
2014 - 24th
2013 - 19th
2012 - 20th
2011 - 20th
2010 - 6th
2009 - 1st

Still optimistic? Still think it only has to do with his players buying in? Last year was Rex's best defensive effort since 2010. There's almost nothing there to expect him to shave 3 points a game off. Meanwhile the Jets went from that 24th under Ryan to 9th under Bowles while the Bills went from 4th to 15th.



Those numbers are not as good as I thought they would be.


I'm on the fence, I could see it going either way.

[trapezeus]

I don't love rex, I think he's sloppy with in game key decision making. there are like 4-8 points in a game, where you need to react quick and make a call that swings the momentum for your team. he doesn't do that very well.

but I agree, last year, it seemed like there was a mutiny and as HC he should have been able to stop it. he didn't and now is getting a chance to build with people who buy in. if his defense gets back into the top 10 and the offense can score as often as they did last year, but also not have as many 3 and outs, they have a shot at the playoffs.

[Joe Fo Sho]

The only stat on defense that matters is points allowed.

Right, and points allowed has absolutely nothing to do with offensive production, offensive turnovers, special teams, or quality of opponents.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

DVOA doesn't mean **** until they actually starting using it when recording points on a scoreboard.

Doesn't matter if you're playing New England or Cleveland, 24 points is still 24 points.

Do you seriously not account for opponents when you put games in context? How about this year? Jacksonville scored 34 on us and Washington scored 35, were those roughly equivalent performances?

[EDS]

Do you seriously not account for opponents when you put games in context? How about this year? Jacksonville scored 34 on us and Washington scored 35, were those roughly equivalent performances?

Yes, they are, given that both teams had very similar per game yardage and points totals last season.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Yes, they are, given that both teams had very similar per game yardage and points totals last season.

Ok, now recall that in the Jacksonville game that 14 points came off EJ Manuel directly and 7 more were set up by his turnover, and McCoy added a fourth TO. Then the defense scored 7 points of their own.

Vs. Washington the offense committed 0 turnovers, the defense forced 0 (Washington's one fumble came on special teams).

Are they still equivalent performances?

[Mace]

I think the biggest thing that still nags at me about last season, is how the defense performed in the 2nd Pats game (week 11). They were ferociously all over Brady. There was no other game like that all season.

Only way it makes any sense to me at all, is if I figure that's the only game Ryan REALLY paid attention to. And that doesn't make sense to me either.

But if you try and imagine that's what he can do when he pays attention, it's some reason for hoping he's bringing his "A" game this season. Granted, we still lost, but if we'd have played like that all year, they genuinely would have had more wins against less seasoned HC/QB combos.

If it wasn't Ryan's attention (bad if it was), I don't have any idea how to explain it (even worse).

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I think the biggest thing that still nags at me about last season, is how the defense performed in the 2nd Pats game (week 11). They were ferociously all over Brady. There was no other game like that all season.

Only way it makes any sense to me at all, is if I figure that's the only game Ryan REALLY paid attention to. And that doesn't make sense to me either.

But if you try and imagine that's what he can do when he pays attention, it's some reason for hoping he's bringing his "A" game this season. Granted, we still lost, but if we'd have played like that all year, they genuinely would have had more wins against less seasoned HC/QB combos.

If it wasn't Ryan's attention (bad if it was), I don't have any idea how to explain it (even worse).

It was our longest non-bye week rest. We went from Thursday night football to Monday night football.

[Mace]

It was our longest non-bye week rest. We went from Thursday night football to Monday night football.

We still didn't do it enough or even come close. If that's the reason, Ryan's prep is deficient. If he needs that much time to prepare for a game, well....and why would he ? Still doesn't make sense to me.

[YardRat]

Do you seriously not account for opponents when you put games in context? How about this year? Jacksonville scored 34 on us and Washington scored 35, were those roughly equivalent performances?

It's pretty rare when I would think 'Ugggh. Giving up 17 points to Cleveland is like giving up 31 to New England'. Of course I take into account other factors on a game by game basis (as you demonstrated in your later post), or even series by series (the team did have the lead before giving it back against Jacksonville), but over the course of an entire season (which a seasonal points against average is based on) those things even out.

[pmoon6]

Hmmm. When Rex had very good defenses, you could actually hit the QB hard and the DBs could be more physical, so the game has passed him by.

Who would have ever thought when you breathe on a QB with violent intent or put a finger on a receiver, you get a 15 yard personal foul and a hefty fine.

Deacon Jones and Ray Nitschke are rolling in their graves and Butkus has stopped watching the sport that used to be called football.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

It's pretty rare when I would think 'Ugggh. Giving up 17 points to Cleveland is like giving up 31 to New England'. Of course I take into account other factors on a game by game basis (as you demonstrated in your later post), or even series by series (the team did have the lead before giving it back against Jacksonville), but over the course of an entire season (which a seasonal points against average is based on) those things even out.

Well that's what DVOA is, just context on a play by play basis.

And FWIW, DVOA likes Rex even less then the points allowed stat, going by this year.

[cookie G]

I think the biggest thing that still nags at me about last season, is how the defense performed in the 2nd Pats game (week 11). They were ferociously all over Brady. There was no other game like that all season.

Only way it makes any sense to me at all, is if I figure that's the only game Ryan REALLY paid attention to. And that doesn't make sense to me either.

But if you try and imagine that's what he can do when he pays attention, it's some reason for hoping he's bringing his "A" game this season. Granted, we still lost, but if we'd have played like that all year, they genuinely would have had more wins against less seasoned HC/QB combos.

If it wasn't Ryan's attention (bad if it was), I don't have any idea how to explain it (even worse).

New England's line was weak in the middle, lots of young guys, and in that game, they were missing both OT's, Solder and Volmer. They had Marcus Cannon playing LT.

But its good to see Bart Scott continuing to be Rex's head cheerleader and blame spreader.

[Mace]

New England's line was weak in the middle, lots of young guys, and in that game, they were missing both OT's, Solder and Volmer. They had Marcus Cannon playing LT.

But its good to see Bart Scott continuing to be Rex's head cheerleader and blame spreader.

I thought about that too, but that was the only game they played with that much fierce defensive purpose. They didn't go after young Bortles (Jags-4th worst in sacks given up), Mariota (Tenn-worse in sacks given up, true we won by 1), Smith (KC-6th worst), or Bradford (Philly-15th). Didn't try to rattle Eli, Cousins or Dalton like that with aggressive game plans.

Their answer to Mariota was shadowing him with, heh, Kyle Williams. I remember thinking all year, they weren't even faking blitz against QB's prone to getting rattled.

I don't buy Ryan's explanation he was trying to mix the systems. To me at least, that 2nd New England game was their only focused, purposeful defensive game plan.

[Ingtar33]

I remember the one game we lost where Mario didn't play his role and the HB caught an easy swing pass into the end zone while Mario was rushing to the QB. I remember how pissed Ryan was on the sideline. Perfect example of not buying in.

Ray Lewis called him out on it; can't remember if it was sunday countdown or MNF. Think it was MNF.

[Topas]

It's pretty rare when I would think 'Ugggh. Giving up 17 points to Cleveland is like giving up 31 to New England'. Of course I take into account other factors on a game by game basis (as you demonstrated in your later post), or even series by series (the team did have the lead before giving it back against Jacksonville), but over the course of an entire season (which a seasonal points against average is based on) those things even out.

No, it does not.


DVOA doesn't mean **** until they actually starting using it when recording points on a scoreboard.

Well, I assume you are stirring the pot or you are exaggerating.
Because it makes no sense and your other posts are usually better than that. I am not going to discuss this and leave it at that we agree to disagree here.

[Night Train]

Well, we'll find out this year if the D works.

Rex has 3 talented D rookies that can play a lot and be taught his way right out of the gate. His brother & Ed Reed can help. It's basically their jobs if injuries don't ruin the year. This team has talent. Switch from Contain to Attack and the results may be much better.

[streetkings01]

That was the New England night game, right before half time. Rex did everything but call out Mario in his TV interview on the way to the locker room at half time.Yup........Corey Graham tried to cover for him but wasn't fast enough to sprint across the field.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Yup........Corey Graham tried to cover for him but wasn't fast enough to sprint across the field.

It's almost like this scheme doesn't work if players don't follow/understand it.

[Topas]

Well, I guess that is true for all schemes and all players. Only exception is Lawrence Taylor. Him not following the call worked pretty well pretty often.

[YardRat]

Well that's what DVOA is, just context on a play by play basis.

And FWIW, DVOA likes Rex even less then the points allowed stat, going by this year.

If DVOA on a play by play basis has any validity at all than it should be taken into account exactly what players are on the field, which I'm pretty sure they don't do. If I'm wrong, than I stand corrected.

[Topas]

If DVOA on a play by play basis has any validity at all than it should be taken into account exactly what players are on the field, which I'm pretty sure they don't do. If I'm wrong, than I stand corrected.

No, it does not. It compares the same situations. For example third an short. How good is the D that the team is playing. And good did the team of interest do against that team. YOu get a better rating if you are destroying the 85 Bears on third an short than you get by converting vs the Buffalo BIlls 2015. That makes sense in my book.
It does not account for specific players that the team fields. It just assumes that the coach selects the best players for that play. And if he does not, DVOA assumes that the coach will again filed these inadequate players the next time.
So it assess the performance of the team in each situation. It does not care by which players that is done. DVOA is not an individual stat.
You will find DVOA ratings for single players (e.g. QBs) but it always states that this the rating for the specific QB, with the specific O line blocking for them with the team RB threatening the run and the own D contributing to the game situation (e.g. leading in points or not).