Bills "aren't going to $15 million" for CB Stephon Gilmore

[YardRat]

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/6/17/11963222/gilmore

There has been a decent amount of chatter in the media lately about the current state of contract talks between the Buffalo Bills and top cornerback Stephon Gilmore. The 25-year-old is in the fifth and final season of his rookie contract, one that will pay him just north of $11 million this season.

It would seem the team isn't willing to raise that number much higher for future seasons.


The Buffalo News' Vic Carucci wrote this morning (http://bills.buffalonews.com/2016/06/17/vic-caruccis-gilmore-standoff-rexs-psychology-reeds-read/) that he's been told "the Bills have no intention of giving Gilmore a contract that will come close to the five-year, $75-million deal [Josh] Norman received to join the Washington Redskins as a free agent." Carucci goes on to write, "The Bills, as I understand it, would be willing to put him in the range of about $12.5 million, maybe $13 million, per year. But they aren't going to $15 million." That's slightly under the $13.4 million average value (http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-analysis-all-22/2016/5/17/11634774/stephon-gilmore-contract-projection-janoris-jenkins-josh-norman) we projected after the Norman deal was announced, but it's certainly in the ballpark.

[TacklingDummy]

He's too injury prone.
I wouldn't even give him $10 million.

It's all about the pass rush. Get pressure on the passer and most any CB will do.

[coastal]

Who honestly ****ing cares?

[Night Train]

I think he's odd man out with the $. He's good but not that special, like Revis in his prime. Giving him some big contract doesn't seem like a good idea. He's had some injury issues.

CB will be one of our 1st 2 picks next year.

[YardRat]

Awww c'mon....where are all of the 'Ralph is cheap' homos now?

[swiper]

Not here. I agree with the notion that he is good, not great. Would love to have him, but doubt the Bills will sell the farm for it.

[Mace]

Who honestly ****ing cares?

Well, me. Not sure Kevin Seymour is growing the predator dreads, which means they'd have to replace the hair next draft.

Besides that though I don't think he's worth 15 million a year either. I expect him to get hurt again anyway.

[SpikedLemonade]

I think he's odd man out with the $. He's good but not that special, like Revis in his prime. Giving him some big contract doesn't seem like a good idea. He's had some injury issues.

CB will be one of our 1st 2 picks next year.

Oh goodie!!!!

- - - Updated - - -


Awww c'mon....where are all of the 'Ralph is cheap' homos now?

I am still right here.

[Mouldsie]

How marketable is he?

[coastal]

How marketable is he?
One of your best posts ever.

Brandon's Bills.

[trapezeus]

if darby holds up this season, he's the guy you want to invest in. next year when shaq is back, the bills might not need stellar db's on both sides. they may be able to get to the qb. I think it's the right long term decision.

[Mahdi]

Considering the way Rex blitzes, I think its more important to have two lock down CBs than it would for any other team...

We don't know if Shaq is the answer as a second pass rusher however we do know Gilmore is a top 10 CB.

Pay him and continue improving the roster. That being said I'm pretty sure we don't have to pay him Josh Norman money to keep him. Between 12.5-14 should be enough.

[trapezeus]

paying DBs hasn't seemed to be a winning strategy. a number of teams try and do it and they kill their pass rush and they don't get any production if their lockdown guy gets hurt. I would rather keep drafting db's and keeping your front seven happy and hungry.

[jimmifli]

Letting guys get to the final year is the problem. You can't get a good deal. You have to pay fair market because if you don't 1/31 other teams will.

How much could we have signed him for last season? A big upfront signing bonus a year early is worth more than waiting two years for an extra couple of million per year.

But if we insist on letting guys get to the end of their deal, then it's better to resign them than run the continual revolving door of talent we have for the last two decades.

[ICRockets]

Letting guys get to the final year is the problem. You can't get a good deal. You have to pay fair market because if you don't 1/31 other teams will.

How much could we have signed him for last season? A big upfront signing bonus a year early is worth more than waiting two years for an extra couple of million per year.

But if we insist on letting guys get to the end of their deal, then it's better to resign them than run the continual revolving door of talent we have for the last two decades.

Usually I agree with your final paragraph, but when we have a potentially gargantuan contract heading Tyrod's way in the offseason I don't mind losing Gilmore because we didn't over pay.

[Mace]

I agree with signing people early, but with some players it isn't a good idea, even for the players, who have some say in what they want also.

I'm not convinced either Taylor or Gilmore will even remain healthy through the season and then look what you did.

On the other hand, if both have success, they earned their payday even if it isn't here, and is it more difficult to replace a corner or a QB nowadays ? I think it's easier to find a corner, if (big if), Seymour's eyesight really was his issue, they may have already, after finding one just the year previous. In any case, you know they'll draft another corner next year, always need corners, and corners playing against spread happy college offenses are coming out of college sharper than ever.

I always look at big money DB's with a wince. Take safety Byrd. Pay the man some said, why did we wait, others said, others said "nah". What if we'd paid him ? Might have said goodbye to Incognito or Glenn, probably both because their cap hits add up to 9.5 mil, and Byrd's is 10.9. Was ballhawk Byrd worth Glenn & Incognito ? I really don't think it panned out that way.

I'm already getting used to the idea of Gilmore going elsewhere for too much, not real sure he's durable anyway, and if he is this year, is he worth too much with so many sharp corners coming out every year ? I dunno. I like Gilmore, but if he's personally that determined for an epic contract, we can't really keep him because we just aren't 1 cb away from a title.

[jimmifli]

I agree with signing people early, but with some players it isn't a good idea, even for the players, who have some say in what they want also.

I'm not convinced either Taylor or Gilmore will even remain healthy through the season and then look what you did.

On the other hand, if both have success, they earned their payday even if it isn't here, and is it more difficult to replace a corner or a QB nowadays ? I think it's easier to find a corner, if (big if), Seymour's eyesight really was his issue, they may have already, after finding one just the year previous. In any case, you know they'll draft another corner next year, always need corners, and corners playing against spread happy college offenses are coming out of college sharper than ever.

I always look at big money DB's with a wince. Take safety Byrd. Pay the man some said, why did we wait, others said, others said "nah". What if we'd paid him ? Might have said goodbye to Incognito or Glenn, probably both because their cap hits add up to 9.5 mil, and Byrd's is 10.9. Was ballhawk Byrd worth Glenn & Incognito ? I really don't think it panned out that way.

I'm already getting used to the idea of Gilmore going elsewhere for too much, not real sure he's durable anyway, and if he is this year, is he worth too much with so many sharp corners coming out every year ? I dunno. I like Gilmore, but if he's personally that determined for an epic contract, we can't really keep him because we just aren't 1 cb away from a title.


It's tough to play that game.

At the time we never spent to the cap, so letting guys walk wasn't really saving money for the next big contract. I was just saving money. Advocating re-signing was more about just spending, since we were more likely to spend on retaining talent than bringing in a big money free agent. Although, eventually even that was changed when it was required to sell some tickets.

Anyways, my thoughts on strategy are as follows:

Essentially all teams have the same resources available to acquire talent - cap space. For a team to acquire more talent for the same cost it must be lucky or make better decisions.

We don't make better decisions.

That's the big reason why I advocate for re-signing guys early, because if we get lucky we'll get a good deal and end up with more than our fair share of talent. The alternative is thinking our front office can outskill other GMs and acquire more talent through shrewd decision making. Essentially I'm advocating for dollar cost averaging an index fund instead of trying to beat the wall street hedge funds.

We're overmatched. Call me a cynic.

The other reason is that the nature of unguaranteed contracts creates a market where players value guaranteed much more than salary. Since they count for cap space evenly, spending more in guaranteed money will net you more talent than spending in salary. But that increased return is due to the increased risk of guaranteed money being shifted from the player (risk of injury) to the team (risk of injury/bad play). Every dollar of salary could have been $0.75 in guaranteed money the year before, it's a missed opportunity. Of course if you get it wrong with big guaranteed contracts to dud players, you'll end up missing the playoffs for a few years - man would THAT suck.

[Historian]

I'm just tired of watching first round picks walk because the Bills don't know what they're doing.

Eventually you have to keep a nucleus.

[Forward_Lateral]

I'm with the Bills on this one, he's not worth anywhere close to $15 mil per season.

[mead107]

not worth that kind of money

[TacklingDummy]

I'm just tired of watching first round picks walk because the Bills don't know what they're doing.

Eventually you have to keep a nucleus.

To be fair there's not many 1st round picks that walked that produced much on their new team.

[Victor7]

Torn on this topic. Gilmore is a very good corner don't ever doubt that. But the going rate for top corners these days is stupid high. I'm not sure ANY corner is worth 13-15 million a year.

If there is some sort of magic way to play with the cap and get him signed to a team friendly deal I'm all for it. But if the only option is a bank breaking deal then time to move on.

[Joe Fo Sho]

To be fair there's not many 1st round picks that walked that produced much on their new team.

Yeah, I'm having a hard time thinking of a 1st round pick that we let walk that was a bad decision. The only player recently would be Lynch, who we traded because we're stupid. Then for me it would be Antoine Winfield, but that's going back a ways.

Spiller - meh
Maybin - HA
McCargo - pfffft
Whitner - HA
JP - pffft
Mike Williams - pfffffffffffft
Clements - maybe, although he was not worth the money he got
Flowers - pfffft

[X-Era]

Letting guys get to the final year is the problem. You can't get a good deal. You have to pay fair market because if you don't 1/31 other teams will.

How much could we have signed him for last season? A big upfront signing bonus a year early is worth more than waiting two years for an extra couple of million per year.

But if we insist on letting guys get to the end of their deal, then it's better to resign them than run the continual revolving door of talent we have for the last two decades."letting guys"... I love how we think the Bills have all the control in these situations.

If a player is thought of as one of the best young players at his position early on in their rookie deal we think they will just sign a lower extension rather than to wait for the big pay day? Why would they do that again?

He'll be re-signed. And it will likely be with a cap hit of 10 mill or less in year one.

[trapezeus]

we kept dareus. for the bills and Gilmore, he's had his share of injuries and while he has been good to great, his stats and the games he hasn't played makes you think you can replace him with a second tier FA DB. if the bills are about the rush, then they should have the coverage with soft zone and loose man to man if darby locks the other side down. yes, it'd be great to have 2 perfect DBs, but at contract time it will cost you. I like Gilmore, but I think I can live without a high priced secondary. especially if darby doesn't slump

[Mace]

Yeah, I'm having a hard time thinking of a 1st round pick that we let walk that was a bad decision. The only player recently would be Lynch, who we traded because we're stupid. Then for me it would be Antoine Winfield, but that's going back a ways.

Spiller - meh
Maybin - HA
McCargo - pfffft
Whitner - HA
JP - pffft
Mike Williams - pfffffffffffft
Clements - maybe, although he was not worth the money he got
Flowers - pfffft

You should reconsider the trading Lynch move as stupid. It was probably best for both sides. Buffalo was not a setting that made Lynch happy, his personality traits weren't going over well here, he was bored in his down time and getting himself into trouble. I don't think Lynch would have done so well over time, nor managed to keep from straying into trouble here. It was thought that sending him toward his beloved west coast would accelerate it, but instead it restored the comfort level that brought out the eclectic best of him.

[Joe Fo Sho]

You should reconsider the trading Lynch move as stupid. It was probably best for both sides. Buffalo was not a setting that made Lynch happy, his personality traits weren't going over well here, he was bored in his down time and getting himself into trouble. I don't think Lynch would have done so well over time, nor managed to keep from straying into trouble here. It was thought that sending him toward his beloved west coast would accelerate it, but instead it restored the comfort level that brought out the eclectic best of him.

Marshawn had 2,600 yards from scrimmage during his first 2 years here. He must've been at least moderately happy here at the beginning. We should have done everything in our power to keep him happy, he was pretty much all we had offensively. We cut his carries in half in 2009 and then drafted CJ in the 1st round, I'm sure he didn't like that a whole lot.

As far as the trade working out evenly for both sides, I'd like for you to revisit the careers of Tank Carder and Chris Hairston.

I'm certainly a little bit biased, as I've been one of Lynch's biggest fan since we drafted him..and I still am.

[Mace]

Marshawn had 2,600 yards from scrimmage during his first 2 years here. He must've been at least moderately happy here at the beginning. We should have done everything in our power to keep him happy, he was pretty much all we had offensively. We cut his carries in half in 2009 and then drafted CJ in the 1st round, I'm sure he didn't like that a whole lot.

As far as the trade working out evenly for both sides, I'd like for you to revisit the careers of Tank Carder and Chris Hairston.

I'm certainly a little bit biased, as I've been one of Lynch's biggest fan since we drafted him..and I still am.

Lynch turned out great on the west coast. You can't ignore the problems he was having here. Ran someone over in the bar area, swiped someones money. You also can't ignore that what plays on the west coast as personality, plays as nuts in some places. Lynch knew that too.

I'm a big fan of Lynch, but it wasn't going to end well here, where he was a big fish in a small pond where he clearly wanted nothing more than to be just a fish in a big pond outside his football. The attention was obviously affecting him outside the game. Lynch always just wanted to be Lynch, and that wasn't going to happen here for long.

[Turf]

As an organization if we are not committed to signing our 1st rounds picks long term, then we shouldn't be picking #1 at that position.

[SpikedLemonade]

To be fair there's not many 1st round picks that walked that produced much on their new team.


This is more of a function of poor drafting and player development rather than anything else.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Lynch turned out great on the west coast.

Lynch was great while he was here, too.


You can't ignore the problems he was having here.

Sure you can, just watch as I ignore your next 3 sentences.


I'm a big fan of Lynch, but it wasn't going to end well here, where he was a big fish in a small pond where he clearly wanted nothing more than to be just a fish in a big pond outside his football. The attention was obviously affecting him outside the game. Lynch always just wanted to be Lynch, and that wasn't going to happen here for long.

It wasn't perfect for Lynch over in Seattle either. He was fined $50,000 for avoiding the media in 2013. He held out during training camp for a bigger contract. The guy was going to have problems in any market he was in, we should have kept him here for as long as we could have. He seemed to have no problem with the Buffalo community during his Kenny Mayne interview at Applebee's while obviously taking a dig at McGahee for how he refused to embrace the city.

[trapezeus]

turf, taking someone in first round comes with a 4 y contract and 1Y extension, I believe. if he's a day one starter, you have a good player for 4 years and you get to see their durability. I think your intention should be to resign them, but at some positions, if they aren't definitely top 5, there is no way you should bust the cap for a top 10 player when you can get his replacement for much cheaper.

[Mahdi]

I'm with the Bills on this one, he's not worth anywhere close to $15 mil per season.

Define worth though...

A player who is either equal or worse than Gilmore signed for 15 mil per season, which means the market just went up.

The NFL salary cap is increasing and the premium positions are QB, LT, Pass rusher, WR and CB. All of those positions revolve around a passing league.

Therefore if we are talking worth, Gilmore is a top 10 CB and a player in his talent level signed a contract for 15 mil. So technically speaking, he is worth 15 mil.

You can factor in injury history but that won't fly in negotiations because Gilmore will get his market value here or somewhere else.

[Mahdi]

Another way to do this is to simply franchise tag Gilmore in March.

The tag is $13,952,000 for CBs so that is exactly where his contract would be anyway.

In the meantime you see who out of the young CBs we have who can step up and if we have none on the roster after next season then you either sign or draft a cheaper player with equal talent.

[TacklingDummy]

As an organization if we are not committed to signing our 1st rounds picks long term, then we shouldn't be picking #1 at that position.

How many 1st round picks would you have signed long term let's say the past 20 years?