Tyrod's Contract Break Down (didn't see it posted here)

[ghz in pittsburgh]

<tbody>
Cash
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021


Age
27
28
29
30
31
32


Signing Bonus
$3.4 million
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A


Roster/ Option Bonus
$3.5 million (roster)
$15.5 million (option)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A


Salary
$3.6 million
$12 million
$13 million
$13 million
$14 million
$15 million


Annual Cash Pay
$10.5 million
$27.5 million
$13 million (fully gteed if picked up)
$13 million
$14 million
$15 million


Cumulative Cash Pay
$10.5 million
$38 million
$51 million
$64 million
$78 million
$93 million


Potential Dead Money
$9.77 million
$18.35 million
$27.44 million
$10.66 million
$6.88 million
$3.1 million



</tbody>

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/8/16/12505676/full-tyrod-taylor-annual-contract-breakdowns

This coming season is critical - if Tyrod's play warrants the Bills to pickup the option in 2017, Tyrod is seeing $15.5 million bonus + $12 million 2017 salary (virtually guaranteed by the option pickup) + $13 million 2018 guaranteed salary.

The Bills can walk away in 2017 for nothing, virtually impossible to walk away in 2018, and to walk away easily in 2019 and beyond.

The tricky scenario for the Bills would be that Tyrod plays good for, say, 6 games and then gets injured to miss the rest of the season, what do you do then 2017?

[gebobs]

Dollars to donuts he gets cut by the end of the year. This team is going to be 3+ games under 0.500.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

Dollars to donuts he gets cut by the end of the year. This team is going to be 3+ games under 0.500.

I'll bet a dozen dollars. We have a donut shop here from NOLA. NOLA in Lake Oswego. They deliver.

[Joe Fo Sho]

The Bills can walk away in 2017 for nothing, virtually impossible to walk away in 2018, and to walk away easily in 2019 and beyond.

$10.66MM in dead cap is certainly nothing to sneeze at. Hopefully it won't matter, though.


The tricky scenario for the Bills would be that Tyrod plays good for, say, 6 games and then gets injured to miss the rest of the season, what do you do then 2017?

It's almost like we should have waited until the end of this year to make an offer to him based on 2 years of work instead of 1, since we could have done that for free. Especially for a small running QBs that historically have a proneness for injury.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

It's almost like we should have waited until the end of this year to make an offer to him based on 2 years of work instead of 1, since we could have done that for free. Especially for a small running QBs that historically have a proneness for injury.

You have to take some gambles in NFL -- in fact, in life as well. If tyrod plays well in 2016, I'm pretty sure you can't get away with a contract on that term (cash up front, i.e. $15.5 bonus, average, $16 per, or guaranty amount). Of course there is the Tyrod not playing well side. So Whaley and company, in their judgement, is betting on the positive side.

[Bill Cody]

It's almost like we should have waited until the end of this year to make an offer to him based on 2 years of work instead of 1, since we could have done that for free. Especially for a small running QBs that historically have a proneness for injury.

Crazy talk. The Bills like to plan ahead. That's given us the signing of Rob Johnson after 4 games, the drafting of JP Losman after a bad game by Bledsoe, and the extending of Fitz. Now Tie Rod. We have a formula here and we're sticking with it.

[Topas]

I think it is a good contract for the Bills. As others already said, worst case if he is injured a lot this year and the jury is still out.
The contract ist structured in a way that the Bills can get out. And it is a lot cheaper than the current QB going rate. That is good.

And all these guys saying that we should have waited one more year and just franchised him.
It is not as easy as in Madden. You dont want an unhappy QB. And you would have needed to negotiate a contract prior to the start of the season. And that would have been a lot more expensive than now.
So we showed faith in him. I hope he is pleased with the money and if he is good, we keep him. If not we cut him and it is not that bad a cap hit.
But having a good QB below market rate would be HUGE !!! It is worth the risk we took, in my book.

[Goobylal]

Dollars to donuts he gets cut by the end of the year. This team is going to be 3+ games under 0.500.

I'll bet you $100 on that prediction.

[Goobylal]

And the contract is a 1-year $9.5M deal that the Bills can choose to extend an additional 5-years for $82.5M.

[feldspar]

I'll bet you $100 on that prediction.

That's the spirit.

Seems most of these humps are so sure that the Bills will do significantly poorer than the odds set in gambling circles. If they don't bet, apparently they are missing out on their big chance at easy money.

Why don't they bet?

[Mr. Pink]

It's a good contract if Tyrod pans out...it's a pretty bad contract if he had a fluke season because teams didn't have tape on him and didn't know how to prepare.

The dude still needs to learn how to throw over the middle of the field though.

[Joe Fo Sho]

That's the spirit.

Seems most of these humps are so sure that the Bills will do significantly poorer than the odds set in gambling circles. If they don't bet, apparently they are missing out on their big chance at easy money.

Why don't they bet?

I'd be willing to throw down some money on the under for total wins, but I don't have the ability to. I mean, where can I place that bet? I have to fly all the way out to Vegas to do it? That's going to cost me another $5k just in flight, hotel, casino, booze, strippers, etc.

I used to bet online at a shady internet site, but they made it so difficult to get my money back that I'm completely turned off by it. I don't have a local bookie or anything either.

So that's why I personally don't bet it. I wish I could though.

[Joe Fo Sho]

It's a good contract if Tyrod pans out...it's a pretty bad contract if he had a fluke season because teams didn't have tape on him and didn't know how to prepare.

Which one do you think is a more likely option?

[feldspar]

I'd be willing to throw down some money on the under for total wins, but I don't have the ability to. I mean, where can I place that bet? I have to fly all the way out to Vegas to do it? That's going to cost me another $5k just in flight, hotel, casino, booze, strippers, etc.

I used to bet online at a shady internet site, but they made it so difficult to get my money back that I'm completely turned off by it. I don't have a local bookie or anything either.

So that's why I personally don't bet it. I wish I could though.

I'm not gonna give you any leads, in case you run into trouble somehow and blame me. But, believe you me, there are legit ways to gamble on the Internet.

I have no problem with anybody's opinion when it comes to sports predictions. But I figure they should bet if they're so damn sure. Might be the Vegas in me. Never did give anyone advice on who to bet on there, either. They ask my opinion, that's fine. But you don't bet on anything other than what you feel best about. Grown people make wages, with nobody to hold accountable but themselves.

Bet with your head, and not your heart, though.

How's that for a half-assed lecture?

[OpIv37]

Those dead cap numbers for 2017 and 2018 are brutal.

If he doesn't work out this season, we will need to find a QB, replace or resign Gilmore, fix all the holes we didn't address this off season plus fix any new holes that arise with $18 million in dead cap alone. Yet people keep insisting that the contract is team friendly....

[feldspar]

Those dead cap numbers for 2017 and 2018 are brutal.

If he doesn't work out this season, we will need to find a QB, replace or resign Gilmore, fix all the holes we didn't address this off season plus fix any new holes that arise with $18 million in dead cap alone. Yet people keep insisting that the contract is team friendly....

That would be the first time in history any team filled every hole.

But I'm sure that you'd be the fella to fill every hole. Understand what I'm saying to you, Opie?

[Joe Fo Sho]

I'm not gonna give you any leads, in case you run into trouble somehow and blame me. But, believe you me, there are legit ways to gamble on the Internet.

I feel like if they were actually legit, they would be much easier to find. I even think the website would find a way to find me through ads and such.


I have no problem with anybody's opinion when it comes to sports predictions. But I figure they should bet if they're so damn sure. Might be the Vegas in me. Never did give anyone advice on who to bet on there, either. They ask my opinion, that's fine. But you don't bet on anything other than what you feel best about. Grown people make wages, with nobody to hold accountable but themselves.

Bet with your head, and not your heart, though.

How's that for a half-assed lecture?

It was great, but next time you should whole-ass it.

[Joe Fo Sho]

That would be the first time in history any team filled every hole.

There's gotta be like a high school football team/cheerleader joke in there somewhere. I'm sure of it.

[feldspar]

...next time you should whole-ass it.

All too common of an occurrence, my friend.

[OpIv37]

That would be the first time in history any team filled every hole.

But I'm sure that you'd be the fella to fill every hole. Understand what I'm saying to you, Opie?

I'm just saying we already have holes and if Tyrod doesn't work out, we are going to have $18 million less to use to fill them.

[feldspar]

There's gotta be like a high school football team/cheerleader joke in there somewhere. I'm sure of it.

Well, I'm a gentleman.

So all I'll say is that you are the right track...let your dirty mind fill in the blanks. I wash my hands of the whole matter.

[feldspar]

I'm just saying we already have holes and if Tyrod doesn't work out, we are going to have $18 million less to use to fill them.

$18 million will buy you lots of holes. Believe me when I tell ya.

Although, I don't see where you came up with that figure. I thought is was $10 million in dead cap space after this year if they don't want to go ahead with it.

[GingerP]

Those dead cap numbers for 2017 and 2018 are brutal.

If he doesn't work out this season, we will need to find a QB, replace or resign Gilmore, fix all the holes we didn't address this off season plus fix any new holes that arise with $18 million in dead cap alone. Yet people keep insisting that the contract is team friendly....

Those dead cap hits aren't accurate. If they decline his option after this year, the only dead money is what is remaining of his $3.4M signing bonus this year. His dead money if they let him go after this year would be $2,853,334.

They have to make a decision on him by the 3rd day of the next league year. If they keep him, they pay him a $15.5M option bonus and his base salary becomes guaranteed. His base salaries each year are guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year, so he is basically playing year-to-year.

Really, it is a good contract if he plays well because it will be a good value, or if he plays poorly because they have an easy out. If he is just decent, it probably isn't a great contract since he will be overpaid or they will be forced to cut him and start over.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Those dead cap numbers for 2017 and 2018 are brutal.

If he doesn't work out this season, we will need to find a QB, replace or resign Gilmore, fix all the holes we didn't address this off season plus fix any new holes that arise with $18 million in dead cap alone. Yet people keep insisting that the contract is team friendly....

The Bills are gambling that if 2016 works out for Tyrod, the likelyhood of 2017 and 2018 working out is much higher -- in fact if Tyrod goes to open market when another strong 2016 season, he'll get much more guaranteed money and more cap hits than whis contract. That is a reasonable assumption.

[feldspar]

Those dead cap hits aren't accurate. If they decline his option after this year, the only dead money is what is remaining of his $3.4M signing bonus this year. His dead money if they let him go after this year would be $2,853,334.

They have to make a decision on him by the 3rd day of the next league year. If they keep him, they pay him a $15.5M option bonus and his base salary becomes guaranteed. His base salaries each year are guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year, so he is basically playing year-to-year.

Really, it is a good contract if he plays well because it will be a good value, or if he plays poorly because they have an easy out. If he is just decent, it probably isn't a great contract since he will be overpaid or they will be forced to cut him and start over.

Man, Is that right?

[OpIv37]

$18 million will buy you lots of holes. Believe me when I tell ya.

Although, I don't see where you came up with that figure. I thought is was $10 million in dead cap space after this year if they don't want to go ahead with it.

I got the figure directly from the chart in the first post of this thread.

[GingerP]

Man, Is that right?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/

This is accurate, but the dead money hits are based on his current situation (option not yet picked up). They increase by a lot if the option is picked up on the 3rd day of the 2017 league year.

[GingerP]

I got the figure directly from the chart in the first post of this thread.

Which is based on his option being picked up. If it isn't picked up, his dead money is $2,853,334. Basically, they paid him $9.5M this year to see if he can play well enough to earn a new contract.

[The Jokeman]

Dollars to donuts he gets cut by the end of the year. This team is going to be 3+ games under 0.500.

And if we that bad likely drafting in top 10 pick and could draft Deshaun Watson or Brad Kaaya and still have a developing Cardale Jones.

[Frenchman]

Well glad it is done. Just needs to stay on healthy. That is his only concern.

[gebobs]

I'll bet you $100 on that prediction.

Which one?

[Goobylal]

Which one?

Both. i'll bet $100 that TT does not get cut before the end of the season and another $100 on the team finishing better than 5-11.

[gebobs]

Both. i'll bet $100 that TT does not get cut before the end of the season and another $100 on the team finishing better than 5-11.

I'll pass on that first one. Given the Bills penchant for throwing away money for nothing, that was more or less a hopeful prediction. They'll go 6-10 and figure he's the right man to get them to 7-9 next year.

As for the wins, a bold 5 win prediction deserves odds. Let's call it 5-1 for that 100 clams or go a double sawbuck straight up that they regress from last year i.e. finish under 0.500.

[Goobylal]

I'll pass on that first one. Given the Bills penchant for throwing away money for nothing, that was more or less a hopeful prediction. They'll go 6-10 and figure he's the right man to get them to 7-9 next year.

As for the wins, a bold 5 win prediction deserves odds. Let's call it 5-1 for that 100 clams or go a double sawbuck straight up that they regress from last year i.e. finish under 0.500.

I'll give 5-1 odds.

[gebobs]

On a double sawbuck. I can swing that without a bit of regret if they do well.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

On a more serious note, if Tyrod Taylor works out, we are probably going to see Rex here for the foreseeable future. When you have a franchise QB, it means you have a realistic chance to win every game. Also Tyrod is more of a Rex wants not a Whaley discovery. As I said before, the Whaley and Nix idea of QBs is all about prototype big arm, 6'4" etc., evident by their drafting record. Tyrod does not fit that mold.

[gebobs]

As long as we make the playoffs (which is my personal bar for determining if Taylor works out), Whaley could hire the rotting corpse of Harvey Johnson for all I care.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

My point is more about giving Rex some credit. In this case, I guess, his connections to Baltimore, Ray Lewis, Ed reed, to name a few, comes to fruition. Those guys , HOF guys, being on the same team with Taylor everyday for a number of years, apparently saw something in him.

[Goobylal]

On a more serious note, if Tyrod Taylor works out, we are probably going to see Rex here for the foreseeable future. When you have a franchise QB, it means you have a realistic chance to win every game. Also Tyrod is more of a Rex wants not a Whaley discovery. As I said before, the Whaley and Nix idea of QBs is all about prototype big arm, 6'4" etc., evident by their drafting record. Tyrod does not fit that mold.

I also believe that Rex was instrumental in getting TT to Buffalo. And if he becomes a franchise QB, meaning the Bills are winning, there is no need to fire Rex.