fivethirtyeight - Week 1 Bills simulations

[trapezeus]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/

Bills prediction to make playoffs: 36%
To win the division: 22%,
To have first round bye: 10%,
To win Super Bowl: 2%

Discuss as you please. I always like this site and the numbers as the season goes on

[OpIv37]

22% to win the division? That's insanely high. If we could replay this season 100 times, NE would win the div at least 85% Of them

[Joe Fo Sho]

22% to win the division? That's insanely high. If we could replay this season 100 times, NE would win the div at least 85% Of them

Yeah, I saw that NE is less than a 50/50 shot to win the division. That seems low to me, even with Brady out for 4 games.

Then I saw that they had the Rams record at 7-9, so it can't be wrong about everything.

[swiper]

If NE can sneak away from the firs four games with one or two wins, they will go about sailing through the AFC East. The Bills will end up 2nd to 4th in the AFC East. Like always. Watch to see how the Jets match up against the Bengals in NYC this week to get a feel about how good they will be this season. They are poised to pick up where they left off. While that's not great, it's better than the Bills.

[GreedoII]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/

Bills prediction to make playoffs: 36%
To win the division: 22%,
To have first round bye: 10%,
To win Super Bowl: 2%

Discuss as you please. I always like this site and the numbers as the season goes on

The fact Denver is that highly regarded makes this crappy data....

[trapezeus]

if fitz remains fitz, we know that when people believe he is the answer, he finds a way to disappoint in unimaginable ways. I suspect the bills will be 2nd in the AFC East, but still a 6 win team with no real direction

[IlluminatusUIUC]

22% to win the division? That's insanely high. If we could replay this season 100 times, NE would win the div at least 85% Of them

Gonna be another year of predicting five touchdown losses I take it?

[Albany,n.y.]

I have the Bills 10-6 with a wild card. Oakland over Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

[G]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/

Bills prediction to make playoffs: 36%
To win the division: 22%,
To have first round bye: 10%,
To win Super Bowl: 2%

Discuss as you please. I always like this site and the numbers as the season goes on

fivethirtyeight is a fantastic website but its NFL analysis is too dependent on last year's results. there is always turnover from year to year.

[trapezeus]

I thought the site looks back at 10 years of data. I forget the exact look back, but I thought it was substantial enough to note a team's long term strength, but sensitive enough to know if a team broke through, it would give you the benefit of it. I feel like the stats they have put out at week 1 for the bills is fairly consistent.

[Victor7]

22% to win the division ??

Yeah right.

Pats only to win 2 of the 4 Brady is out and that will suffice to take the pennant yet again. Our shot is more on the 4% side of things.

[Mr. Pink]

The Pats at minimum will go 10-6, do you see any other team in the East who can match that?

I don't.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Yes by all means why embrace statistics and analytics.

Those are some of the smartest statisticians in the country and they're usually right, and emotion and personal bias never play into things at all.

Most people live by outdated cliches about playing more smashmouth football and punch'en'em in the gut.

[OpIv37]

Yes by all means why embrace statistics and analytics.

Those are some of the smartest statisticians in the country and they're usually right, and emotion and personal bias never play into things at all.

Most people live by outdated cliches about playing more smashmouth football and punch'en'em in the gut.

Their computations may be correct but the statistical model they used apparently has a lot of flaws

[stuckincincy]

Yes by all means why embrace statistics and analytics.

Those are some of the smartest statisticians in the country and they're usually right, and emotion and personal bias never play into things at all.

Most people live by outdated cliches about playing more smashmouth football and punch'en'em in the gut.

You've not been posting much, recently. I enjoy your posts and are looking forward to them this season.

[Mace]

It sounds about right to me so far.

[Buffalogic]

This not accurate. From what I read here all of these should be 0%.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Most people in here think the Bills are a below average team in the 6-8 win range. 22% is a slightly below average prediction to win from a group of 4, and it's inflated because we and Miami split our series with the Bradyless Pats

[trapezeus]

22% is pretty low. I think it seems high to a bunch of us, but you wouldn't play a casino game were you had a 22% chance of winning vs the house.

[OpIv37]

Most people in here think the Bills are a below average team in the 6-8 win range. 22% is a slightly below average prediction to win from a group of 4, and it's inflated because we and Miami split our series with the Bradyless Pats

The Bradyless Pats are still an above average team in a division with 3 below average teams. In a perfect world, each team would be 25%, but we know the Pats are better and the other two are roughly equal.

That only reduces our odds of winning the div 3% from a truly random outcome? That does not seem right at all.

[Forward_Lateral]

I went quickly through it and thought 9-7 with the possibility of 10 or 11 wins if they win every game they "should" win, and upset a few like Cincy, Pittsburgh, etc.

I could also see 7 wins if they crap the bed against a couple of teams they should beat, and don't upset anyone.

[Night Train]

I guess the 3-4 win crowd failed to contact them, prior to this outrageous prediction.

[trapezeus]

if it wasn't a rex team, I would believe this has 7 to 10 wins basedon the teams we play. but if the bills have a slow start and they are still struggling on d, I can see the wheels coming off this thing and rex having very little control to put it back together.

[Forward_Lateral]

if it wasn't a rex team, I would believe this has 7 to 10 wins basedon the teams we play. but if the bills have a slow start and they are still struggling on d, I can see the wheels coming off this thing and rex having very little control to put it back together.

Agree. I can see them starting 2-0 or better or 0-4 lol