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I know you're mad right now, but what better way to cheer yourself up than to run down the playoff scenario rabbit hole. Get excited, we can still make it!
It's probably obvious to everyone, but the Bills only real chance of getting in involves winning out as usual. It's mathematically possible to get in at 9-7, but that would require so much help and is so unlikely that it's not worth discussing. However, if they do actually finish 10-6, which I know is unlikely, their chances of getting in are actually pretty good. There really aren't that many realistic tie-breaking scenarios. So assuming the Bills win out there are only a few things that need to happen for the Bills to make it as a WC:
1) The Dolphins need to lose one of their other three games. It doesn't matter which one. If the Fins lose to the Bills, but finish 10-6 they would win the tie-breaker based on division record. So they need to lose one additional game against Arizona, the Jets, or NE. I think they're going to lose this weekend and to NE, so I think it's pretty likely that they do no better than 9-7.
2) Baltimore needs to lose one of their three remaining games not including their game against Pitt, or just beat Pitt. Since Baltimore plays at NE this Monday night I think it's likely they lose. And since Baltimore and Pitt still play one more time, there's no way both can get to 10-6 if they both lose this weekend. The only way the Bills lose a tie-breaker to the NFC North at 10-6 is if Baltimore loses to Pitt, but wins their other three and Pitt loses to us, but wins their other three also. Both would be 10-6, Pitt would win the division with a better division record, and Baltimore would win the head to head against the Bills. But as long as Baltimore loses at NE this week, the Bills would control their own destiny against the North and tie-breakers would be irrelevant.
3) The AFC South has three teams tied at 6-6. We just need the Colts or Titans to lose one more game. The Texans still play both the Titans and Colts so there's no way all three can finish 10-6, and it's highly unlikely that the Colts and Titans run the table and both finish 10-6. The Colts and Titans both winning out is the only scenario where the Bills would lose a tie-breaker. The Colts would win the division based on sweeping the Titans and the tie-breaker between the Bills and Titans would come down to common opponent since both teams would be 7-5 in the AFC. Titans would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Bills would be 3-2. However, the Titans and Colts both have really tough schedules, so it's highly unlikely either team goes 10-6 let alone both. 9-7 or even 8-8 will likely end up being good enough to win the South.
4) The Broncos need to lose to NE and Oakland. If they lose those two games, they would finish 10-6 and be 7-5 in the AFC. Tie-breaker would come down to common opponent, which the Bills would win against Denver since the Bills are 3-2 and the Broncos would be 2-3. If they win one of those two, but still finish 10-6, the tie-breaker would go to SOV, which I think the Bills would probably lose. So the Bills just need the Broncos to lose to the two best teams in the AFC, or lose any 3 of their last 4. Considering that the Broncos last three games are against the three best teams in the AFC (NE, KC, and Oakland) and they might have to start Paxton Lynch (who has not looked good) at Tennessee, they could be in trouble.
I know the odds are still heavily against the Bills making it, but it's not as impossible as some might think. The fact that they have to win out always makes it unlikely, but these games definitely aren't meaningless. As long as they win this week, they're still very much in it no matter what happens in any other game. But it would be ideal if:
Buffalo beats Pitt (Pitt favored by 1.5)
Arizona beats Miami (Miami is favored by 1.0)
NE beats Baltimore (NE is favored by 7.0)
Houston beats Indy (Indy favored by 6.0)
Tenn beats Denver (Tenn favored by 1.0)
Don't give up just yet. A win against Pitt allows us to fight off going into full-on offseason mode for at least one more week. Go Bills!
It's probably obvious to everyone, but the Bills only real chance of getting in involves winning out as usual. It's mathematically possible to get in at 9-7, but that would require so much help and is so unlikely that it's not worth discussing. However, if they do actually finish 10-6, which I know is unlikely, their chances of getting in are actually pretty good. There really aren't that many realistic tie-breaking scenarios. So assuming the Bills win out there are only a few things that need to happen for the Bills to make it as a WC:
1) The Dolphins need to lose one of their other three games. It doesn't matter which one. If the Fins lose to the Bills, but finish 10-6 they would win the tie-breaker based on division record. So they need to lose one additional game against Arizona, the Jets, or NE. I think they're going to lose this weekend and to NE, so I think it's pretty likely that they do no better than 9-7.
2) Baltimore needs to lose one of their three remaining games not including their game against Pitt, or just beat Pitt. Since Baltimore plays at NE this Monday night I think it's likely they lose. And since Baltimore and Pitt still play one more time, there's no way both can get to 10-6 if they both lose this weekend. The only way the Bills lose a tie-breaker to the NFC North at 10-6 is if Baltimore loses to Pitt, but wins their other three and Pitt loses to us, but wins their other three also. Both would be 10-6, Pitt would win the division with a better division record, and Baltimore would win the head to head against the Bills. But as long as Baltimore loses at NE this week, the Bills would control their own destiny against the North and tie-breakers would be irrelevant.
3) The AFC South has three teams tied at 6-6. We just need the Colts or Titans to lose one more game. The Texans still play both the Titans and Colts so there's no way all three can finish 10-6, and it's highly unlikely that the Colts and Titans run the table and both finish 10-6. The Colts and Titans both winning out is the only scenario where the Bills would lose a tie-breaker. The Colts would win the division based on sweeping the Titans and the tie-breaker between the Bills and Titans would come down to common opponent since both teams would be 7-5 in the AFC. Titans would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Bills would be 3-2. However, the Titans and Colts both have really tough schedules, so it's highly unlikely either team goes 10-6 let alone both. 9-7 or even 8-8 will likely end up being good enough to win the South.
4) The Broncos need to lose to NE and Oakland. If they lose those two games, they would finish 10-6 and be 7-5 in the AFC. Tie-breaker would come down to common opponent, which the Bills would win against Denver since the Bills are 3-2 and the Broncos would be 2-3. If they win one of those two, but still finish 10-6, the tie-breaker would go to SOV, which I think the Bills would probably lose. So the Bills just need the Broncos to lose to the two best teams in the AFC, or lose any 3 of their last 4. Considering that the Broncos last three games are against the three best teams in the AFC (NE, KC, and Oakland) and they might have to start Paxton Lynch (who has not looked good) at Tennessee, they could be in trouble.
I know the odds are still heavily against the Bills making it, but it's not as impossible as some might think. The fact that they have to win out always makes it unlikely, but these games definitely aren't meaningless. As long as they win this week, they're still very much in it no matter what happens in any other game. But it would be ideal if:
Buffalo beats Pitt (Pitt favored by 1.5)
Arizona beats Miami (Miami is favored by 1.0)
NE beats Baltimore (NE is favored by 7.0)
Houston beats Indy (Indy favored by 6.0)
Tenn beats Denver (Tenn favored by 1.0)
Don't give up just yet. A win against Pitt allows us to fight off going into full-on offseason mode for at least one more week. Go Bills!
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