Skooby
12-06-2016, 11:37 PM
It looks like 2016 NFL season is another bust for the Buffalo Bills. There is a small chance that they still make the playoffs, but that will have to be borne out in the coming weeks. In the meantime, in celebration of their 16 season drought of not having made the NFL playoffs, I have completed a study in which I examine how many times the Bills should have been in the playoffs, statistically speaking.
The current average rate, with just mathematical probability in mind, of making the playoffs any given year, is 3/8 or 37.5%. This has varied a little at the beginning of the Bills drought, since in 2000 and 2001 there were only 31 teams in the NFL, before Houston entered in 2002 (and when Seattle switched conferences). So in those two years, 6 of 16 AFC teams made the playoffs, and 6 of 15 NFC teams did.
Probable Playoff Averages per Year per Team:
NFC from 2000-2001: 40.0%
NFC from 2002-2015: 37.5%
AFC from 2000-2015: 37.5%
Cleveland from 2002-2015: 37.5%
Seattle, from 2000-2015: 37.5%
Overall from 2000-2001: 38.7%
Overall from 2002-2015: 37.5%
Overall from 2000-2015: 37.7%
So the league average allows for a 37.7% chance for a team to make the playoffs in any given year, during the years of 2000-2015 (the years of the current Bills drought). This percentage, multiplied by these 16 years, equals 6.032 years. So the average times a team makes the playoffs in any given year during Buffalo's current drought is just over 6 times. So call it 6.
Thus, mathematically speaking, Buffalo should have made the playoffs 6 times from 2000-2015, either as a division champion or wild card. Of course, the caveat is I am excluding the Bills rich history before then, from 1960-1999. Given that they made the playoffs many times in the 1960's, 1980's, and 1990's, a drought like they have had for 16 years may not be considered that bad, and perhaps even expected.
With that in mind, one team has made the playoffs an astonishing 13 out of those 16 drought years, for a percent of 81.3%. That team would be New England.
Another team has made it 12 of 16 years, or 75% of the time: Indianapolis.
Green Bay has made it 11 out of the 16 years, or 68.8%.
Overall, there have been 10 elite teams during Buffalo's drought that have made the playoffs more time than they should have, statistically speaking.
There have been 6 average teams who have made the playoffs exactly 6 times, as expected.
And then there have been 16 teams who have made the playoffs less times than one would expect. At the very bottom of that list is Buffalo, which has not made the playoffs one single year. Even Cleveland has made it once.
Below is my table summarizing this. The last column specifies playoff years above average, with the average being 6 trips to the playoffs in those 16 drought years. Those teams with the highest numbers (positive) have made the playoffs more than their fare share. Those with the lowest (negative) numbers, have made the playoffs less than we would expect, statistically speaking.
<tbody>
Rank
Team
Years Team Made Playoffs in Buffalo's Drought
Total Years in Buffalo's Drought
Percent
Playoff Years AboveAverage
(Avg. = 6)
1
New England
13
16
81.3%
7
2
Indianapolis
12
16
75.0%
6
3
Green Bay
11
16
68.8%
5
4
Pittsburgh
10
16
62.5%
4
4
Baltimore
10
16
62.5%
4
4
Philadelphia
10
16
62.5%
4
4
Seattle
10
16
62.5%
4
8
Denver
9
16
56.3%
3
9
Cincinnati
7
16
43.8%
1
9
NY Giants
7
16
43.8%
1
11
NY Jets
6
16
37.5%
0
11
San Diego
6
16
37.5%
0
11
Minnesota
6
16
37.5%
0
11
New Orleans
6
16
37.5%
0
11
Atlanta
6
16
37.5%
0
11
Carolina
6
16
37.5%
0
17
Tennessee
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
Kansas City
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
Dallas
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
Tampa Bay
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
San Francisco
5
16
31.3%
-1
22
Washington
4
16
25.0%
-2
22
Chicago
4
16
25.0%
-2
22
Los Angeles/St. Louis
4
16
25.0%
-2
22
Arizona
4
16
25.0%
-2
26
Houston
3
14
21.4%
-2
27
Miami
3
16
18.8%
-3
27
Oakland
3
16
18.8%
-3
29
Jacksonville
2
16
12.5%
-4
29
Detroit
2
16
12.5%
-4
31
Cleveland
1
16
6.3%
-5
32
Buffalo
0
16
0.0%
-6
</tbody>
The current average rate, with just mathematical probability in mind, of making the playoffs any given year, is 3/8 or 37.5%. This has varied a little at the beginning of the Bills drought, since in 2000 and 2001 there were only 31 teams in the NFL, before Houston entered in 2002 (and when Seattle switched conferences). So in those two years, 6 of 16 AFC teams made the playoffs, and 6 of 15 NFC teams did.
Probable Playoff Averages per Year per Team:
NFC from 2000-2001: 40.0%
NFC from 2002-2015: 37.5%
AFC from 2000-2015: 37.5%
Cleveland from 2002-2015: 37.5%
Seattle, from 2000-2015: 37.5%
Overall from 2000-2001: 38.7%
Overall from 2002-2015: 37.5%
Overall from 2000-2015: 37.7%
So the league average allows for a 37.7% chance for a team to make the playoffs in any given year, during the years of 2000-2015 (the years of the current Bills drought). This percentage, multiplied by these 16 years, equals 6.032 years. So the average times a team makes the playoffs in any given year during Buffalo's current drought is just over 6 times. So call it 6.
Thus, mathematically speaking, Buffalo should have made the playoffs 6 times from 2000-2015, either as a division champion or wild card. Of course, the caveat is I am excluding the Bills rich history before then, from 1960-1999. Given that they made the playoffs many times in the 1960's, 1980's, and 1990's, a drought like they have had for 16 years may not be considered that bad, and perhaps even expected.
With that in mind, one team has made the playoffs an astonishing 13 out of those 16 drought years, for a percent of 81.3%. That team would be New England.
Another team has made it 12 of 16 years, or 75% of the time: Indianapolis.
Green Bay has made it 11 out of the 16 years, or 68.8%.
Overall, there have been 10 elite teams during Buffalo's drought that have made the playoffs more time than they should have, statistically speaking.
There have been 6 average teams who have made the playoffs exactly 6 times, as expected.
And then there have been 16 teams who have made the playoffs less times than one would expect. At the very bottom of that list is Buffalo, which has not made the playoffs one single year. Even Cleveland has made it once.
Below is my table summarizing this. The last column specifies playoff years above average, with the average being 6 trips to the playoffs in those 16 drought years. Those teams with the highest numbers (positive) have made the playoffs more than their fare share. Those with the lowest (negative) numbers, have made the playoffs less than we would expect, statistically speaking.
<tbody>
Rank
Team
Years Team Made Playoffs in Buffalo's Drought
Total Years in Buffalo's Drought
Percent
Playoff Years AboveAverage
(Avg. = 6)
1
New England
13
16
81.3%
7
2
Indianapolis
12
16
75.0%
6
3
Green Bay
11
16
68.8%
5
4
Pittsburgh
10
16
62.5%
4
4
Baltimore
10
16
62.5%
4
4
Philadelphia
10
16
62.5%
4
4
Seattle
10
16
62.5%
4
8
Denver
9
16
56.3%
3
9
Cincinnati
7
16
43.8%
1
9
NY Giants
7
16
43.8%
1
11
NY Jets
6
16
37.5%
0
11
San Diego
6
16
37.5%
0
11
Minnesota
6
16
37.5%
0
11
New Orleans
6
16
37.5%
0
11
Atlanta
6
16
37.5%
0
11
Carolina
6
16
37.5%
0
17
Tennessee
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
Kansas City
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
Dallas
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
Tampa Bay
5
16
31.3%
-1
17
San Francisco
5
16
31.3%
-1
22
Washington
4
16
25.0%
-2
22
Chicago
4
16
25.0%
-2
22
Los Angeles/St. Louis
4
16
25.0%
-2
22
Arizona
4
16
25.0%
-2
26
Houston
3
14
21.4%
-2
27
Miami
3
16
18.8%
-3
27
Oakland
3
16
18.8%
-3
29
Jacksonville
2
16
12.5%
-4
29
Detroit
2
16
12.5%
-4
31
Cleveland
1
16
6.3%
-5
32
Buffalo
0
16
0.0%
-6
</tbody>