Good way of evaluating QBs

[Cali512]

What I have got in the habit of doing, is looking up a players best game, worst game, and primetime game. It's only 3 games you have to find, but it really does help when evaluating a QB as a fan. I also look to see how many times a player scans the field, makes NFL throws, and how many are uncatchable. This strategy seems to work with every QB I have seen, except Brady Quinn (he did look elite). I loved Dak and Wilson, and hate watching the combine. I don't know for a fact, but I have yet to see any proof that the combine proves who's a better NFL player. I know I don't have any qualifications, but if you want the most unbiased personal view of a player, this is a good quick way to go.

[YardRat]

The only things significant to come out of the combine are the medicals and interviews.

[zone]

So who do you like this year?

[YardRat]

I like Kelly, I'd settle for Mahomes.

[SpikedLemonade]

I like Kelly, I'd settle for Mahomes.

Perhaps for the City of Buffalo's St.Patrick's Day Parade since one more drunken Irish man on that day is welcome, but he has to be out of here before Training Camp.

Chad is nothing but trouble.

[Thurmal]

Pocket presence, accuracy, and the ability to read defenses. That is literally all you need to be a successful QB in this league. The rest is just fluff.

[Cali512]

This year I see going like this.

Kizer is a bust. His only, and I mean only upside is his velocity. His accuracy is horrible, and always stares down his target
Trubisky looks solid. I see him having a Carson Palmer type career
I know its been beaten to death, but Watson looks so so similar to Winston. Their strengths I see being different, but their final outcome is the same. Both are playmakers that show up in big games, have issues with accuracy (mainly with footwork), and will try to be a gunslinger. I see Watson being more accurate, but Winston has the edge with arm strength. But both attempt the same type of throws

Chad Kelly and Mahomes are the intriguing ones. I'm having issues getting on board with both (I've watched more tape of both). Mahomes I can not tell if he's a Bryce Petty/Manziel combo. I see so many across the body throws with Mahones, and every WR is open.

Chad Kelly plays like Aaron Rodgers. So I see Chad having the best upside in the whole draft. I've seen him throwing multiple strikes in double coverage while getting destroyed. He's shown up in big games, but he seems to have a huge consistency issue. He has made throws that are only identical to, dare I say, Andrew Luck in college. But yet he also makes Cutler esque mistakes.


Best value is Chad Kelly in round 3-4
Safest best is Trubisky in top 10
Biggest star potential is Watson
Highest risk is Watson also in top 10
But the one with what seems to be the lowest ceiling and lowest floor is Mahomes. I just can not see his style, and offensive scheme, translating well. I made a mistake with Petty assuming that his natural ability trumps everything. Mahomes would have to change his whole style, the way manziel has to, to become successful. Even if he does, I see him very similar to Losman.

[swiper]

This year I see going like this.

Kizer is a bust. His only, and I mean only upside is his velocity. His accuracy is horrible, and always stares down his target
Trubisky looks solid. I see him having a Carson Palmer type career
I know its been beaten to death, but Watson looks so so similar to Winston. Their strengths I see being different, but their final outcome is the same. Both are playmakers that show up in big games, have issues with accuracy (mainly with footwork), and will try to be a gunslinger. I see Watson being more accurate, but Winston has the edge with arm strength. But both attempt the same type of throws

Chad Kelly and Mahomes are the intriguing ones. I'm having issues getting on board with both (I've watched more tape of both). Mahomes I can not tell if he's a Bryce Petty/Manziel combo. I see so many across the body throws with Mahones, and every WR is open.

Chad Kelly plays like Aaron Rodgers. So I see Chad having the best upside in the whole draft. I've seen him throwing multiple strikes in double coverage while getting destroyed. He's shown up in big games, but he seems to have a huge consistency issue. He has made throws that are only identical to, dare I say, Andrew Luck in college. But yet he also makes Cutler esque mistakes.


Best value is Chad Kelly in round 3-4
Safest best is Trubisky in top 10
Biggest star potential is Watson
Highest risk is Watson also in top 10
But the one with what seems to be the lowest ceiling and lowest floor is Mahomes. I just can not see his style, and offensive scheme, translating well. I made a mistake with Petty assuming that his natural ability trumps everything. Mahomes would have to change his whole style, the way manziel has to, to become successful. Even if he does, I see him very similar to Losman.

Not sure I like your method, but your dedication to it is certainly admirable. You've done your homework and I liked reading your input. But your conclusions seem to be the same as what everyone else has been saying. Which, of course, is fine. It is what it is. Not clear cut franchise guys. If the Bills took Chad Kelly in the 3rd round, Doug Whaley would win back many fans.

[feldspar]

Nevermind

[YardRat]

Nevermind

OK

[Turf]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2017/03/04/deshaun-watson-combine-workout-nfl-draft/98751644/

[Ingtar33]

the only QB in the draft who made me excited when I was watching tapes of him was Mahomes. That is because he does stuff no one else should or would do and got away with it all the time. Like watching Brett Favre. That doesn't mean he'll make a good pro, but he seems to have "it", furthermore he was the only QB on tape who reliably "threw" his WRs open. This is a skill you need in the NFL which many college QBs simply don't have; if he's still on the board when we pick in round 2 i'd be pretty happy with him being taken. That said he's a tough guy to evaluate because he does a lot of stuff that just will bite him bad at the pro level, the question is will he learn and improve or will he be a 20INT guy? not sure. He's definately the wrong guy to take if you plan to play any sort of ball control.

Trabisky is the best QB in this draft on tape hands down. but he doesn't press any buttons or make me excited when I watch him either. He's the safest pick in the draft -PERIOD-, he also was working with the worse WR corps of any top QB and made those stone handed slow footed midgets look like world beaters by himself. He did a lot with nothing.

Kizer's act will be a disaster at the NFL level. He's too slow to throw, too slow in his windup, the windup is tebowesque, he stares down his WRs, and double and triple clutches like mad. When he has a clean pocket and time to throw he looks like the best QB in the draft. But he'll never have pockets that clean or that much time in the NFL, bust written all over him; that said someone will fall in love with his NFL ready frame, 40 times and physique, they'll see him throw the ball a mile from his knees and he'll go high in round one.

Watson is a 2nd rounder who bought his ticket into round 1 with that NCAA championship game, and probably locked himself in as no.1 overall with that combine. He's a winner at the college level. And who knows maybe he'll be good at the pro level. But evaluating him is troublesome because his offense does not ask him to make any real reads or progressions, so it will be a huge adjustment for him at the pro level, think RGIII. That said he has the physical tools to do it, and no one can discount his arm. The only problem is you'd be hard pressed to see him throwing many guys open on tape, furthermore he rarely would throw to NFL "covered" WRs unless the play called for it, and running wasn't an option. He has some great tools, just the scheme scares me badly with him.

Kelly isn't ready for the pros. He's a few years away, had this been his rookie or sophmore year I'd want him to stay in another year and see what happens. Unfortunately this is his 5th year and he has to come out. He needed to play more in college. So he'll be coming our raw, and whomever gets him will need him to sit.

[YardRat]

I disagree with 'throw guys open' comment, I've seen Kelly do that pretty consistently over the last two seasons. IMO it's one of his strengths.

[Ingtar33]

you missed the word "reliably" in front of 'threw his WRs open', sure Kelly did it, Watson did it, Trabisky did a lot of it as well. But none of them did it reliably or all that often. Many times they would miss fairly badly in places (especially Kelly) that in the NFL would be an interception.

Trabisky was safe while doing it, and probably will always be safe with the ball, but that can hurt you too, as you can limit your WRs RAC if every time you're throwing them open they have to dive to the turf to get the ball. Sure the ball is in no danger for a pick, but it's also in no danger to be turned up field. Perhaps that was more a feature of having a bunch of slow midgets to throw to, but Trabisky certainly kept the ball out of danger wherever he could. Watson depended on his superior WRs to gather in his jump balls (which was how he threw his WRs open more often then not).

Mahomes on the other hand threw his WRs open all the time. And he'd squeeze it into some very tight spaces too, resulting in a lot of RAC yardage. This was something no one else in the draft really did all that much, and he did it all over the field, even in the red zone (he also was the only QB to make use of the back of the endzone like a true pro). Listen, he excited me a lot when I saw him on tape. Enough that I'm singing his praises while BLATANTLY ignoring all the horrible footwork, habits and decisions he makes with the football. He's basically either going to be a superstar or flame out completely and be a bust. No clue which. I wouldn't even bet a dollar on the outcome. But I would take the gamble with a 2nd rounder.

[Night Train]

Mahomes is the only QB among the so called top guys I'd gamble on and he still has a lot of questions. Can he take a snap under center and drop back to set his feet ?

Texas Tech QB's put up numbers every year and vanish to non-football lives after.

[k-oneputt]

Ingtar, what do you think of Davis Webb ?

As for Mahomes I've been on him since October and he is my #1 choice, but I don't think he will last to our 2nd rd. pick.

[Ingtar33]

Can he drop back to set his feet ?

nope. every time he dropped back his feet were all over the place, his arm too. he'd throw it off his back foot, off his wrong foot, sidearm, over the top, there was no "form" to his throwing motion, it's a freaking disaster.

expecting Mahomes to throw with his feet set is expecting a pumpkin to turn into a cabbage. that's not him at all.



As to Davis Webb? disaster, PS player. If he was on my draft board he'd be undrafted. He sends out every warning sign I've seen from a spread QB and does nothing better then say, Chad Kelly.

[justasportsfan]

If Mahomes is there at rd 2 Id be ok. If not, Kelly in the 3rd better yet the 4th. We need to make such gambles . Our qb position is the reason why we still havent sniffed playoffs the last 17 years.

[YardRat]

you missed the word "reliably" in front of 'threw his WRs open', sure Kelly did it, Watson did it, Trabisky did a lot of it as well. But none of them did it reliably or all that often. Many times they would miss fairly badly in places (especially Kelly) that in the NFL would be an interception.

Trabisky was safe while doing it, and probably will always be safe with the ball, but that can hurt you too, as you can limit your WRs RAC if every time you're throwing them open they have to dive to the turf to get the ball. Sure the ball is in no danger for a pick, but it's also in no danger to be turned up field. Perhaps that was more a feature of having a bunch of slow midgets to throw to, but Trabisky certainly kept the ball out of danger wherever he could. Watson depended on his superior WRs to gather in his jump balls (which was how he threw his WRs open more often then not).

Mahomes on the other hand threw his WRs open all the time. And he'd squeeze it into some very tight spaces too, resulting in a lot of RAC yardage. This was something no one else in the draft really did all that much, and he did it all over the field, even in the red zone (he also was the only QB to make use of the back of the endzone like a true pro). Listen, he excited me a lot when I saw him on tape. Enough that I'm singing his praises while BLATANTLY ignoring all the horrible footwork, habits and decisions he makes with the football. He's basically either going to be a superstar or flame out completely and be a bust. No clue which. I wouldn't even bet a dollar on the outcome. But I would take the gamble with a 2nd rounder.
Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree and wait and see. My money is on Kelly, yours on Mahomes. We'll check back in three-four years and see.

[The last buffalo fan]

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or undrafted, I want a real Qb, I would even tatto his name and number on my ass! :pray:

[SpikedLemonade]

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or undrafted, I want a real Qb, I would even tatto his name and number on my ass! :pray:
If his name was BROWN, would you go with a BR on the left cheek and a WN on the right cheek with your butthole being the O?

Just thinkin' the logistics through.

[Cali512]

the only QB in the draft who made me excited when I was watching tapes of him was Mahomes. That is because he does stuff no one else should or would do and got away with it all the time. Like watching Brett Favre. That doesn't mean he'll make a good pro, but he seems to have "it", furthermore he was the only QB on tape who reliably "threw" his WRs open. This is a skill you need in the NFL which many college QBs simply don't have; if he's still on the board when we pick in round 2 i'd be pretty happy with him being taken. That said he's a tough guy to evaluate because he does a lot of stuff that just will bite him bad at the pro level, the question is will he learn and improve or will he be a 20INT guy? not sure. He's definately the wrong guy to take if you plan to play any sort of ball control.

Trabisky is the best QB in this draft on tape hands down. but he doesn't press any buttons or make me excited when I watch him either. He's the safest pick in the draft -PERIOD-, he also was working with the worse WR corps of any top QB and made those stone handed slow footed midgets look like world beaters by himself. He did a lot with nothing.

Kizer's act will be a disaster at the NFL level. He's too slow to throw, too slow in his windup, the windup is tebowesque, he stares down his WRs, and double and triple clutches like mad. When he has a clean pocket and time to throw he looks like the best QB in the draft. But he'll never have pockets that clean or that much time in the NFL, bust written all over him; that said someone will fall in love with his NFL ready frame, 40 times and physique, they'll see him throw the ball a mile from his knees and he'll go high in round one.

Watson is a 2nd rounder who bought his ticket into round 1 with that NCAA championship game, and probably locked himself in as no.1 overall with that combine. He's a winner at the college level. And who knows maybe he'll be good at the pro level. But evaluating him is troublesome because his offense does not ask him to make any real reads or progressions, so it will be a huge adjustment for him at the pro level, think RGIII. That said he has the physical tools to do it, and no one can discount his arm. The only problem is you'd be hard pressed to see him throwing many guys open on tape, furthermore he rarely would throw to NFL "covered" WRs unless the play called for it, and running wasn't an option. He has some great tools, just the scheme scares me badly with him.

Kelly isn't ready for the pros. He's a few years away, had this been his rookie or sophmore year I'd want him to stay in another year and see what happens. Unfortunately this is his 5th year and he has to come out. He needed to play more in college. So he'll be coming our raw, and whomever gets him will need him to sit.



I actually have to disagree with a lot of this.

Mahomes never has to make NFL throws. Every WR that catches the ball has a lot of space and is usually matched one on one. He seems to make his job harder to make wow, type plays. Yes I do see the Brett Favre type, but the problem is he doesn't have Brett favres arm. Fitzpatrick is what Favre would be with a weak arm, and I see Mahomes closer to the Fitz arm level. This is not a bash against Mahomes, its more highlighting how amazing Favres arm was. Favres hands were so large that his pinky nearly touched the back of the football. You have to have Favres arm strength to be Favre, and anything short of that just wont cut it

I also disagree that Kizer looks like the best QB when he has time. His accuracy is always all over the place. Low screen passes, high passes when WR are wide open. His timing routes can go anywhere, just like EJ. His only strengths are arm strength and mobility

I also see you totally underestimating Watson. He makes a decent amount of Nfl throws and plays. All you have to do to see that is watch Mike Williams highlights and you will see tons of NFL throws. As I said before, Watson appears as a more accurate, less powerful version of Winston.

Now where I definitely have issues with is your idea of throwing a WR open. Kelly is the best QB to come out in the past 2 years in this department. Back shoulder throws, leading a WR away from the defender, passes out of bounds where only the WR can get them. My biggest issue with Kelly is he seems to force plays. So pre snap he will have in his mind, I want to do this. When he snaps the ball, the DB may go to a deep zone, but Kelly put so much focus on that route, that if he doesn't throw it to that player he already has ruined the timing for another route. Ones Kelly focuses on only what he sees, and processes every route in real time, hell be elite. I don't find it to be that hard for him because its just impulse control which maturity wise he's improved

[The last buffalo fan]

If his name was BROWN, would you go with a BR on the left cheek and a WN on the right cheek with your butthole being the O?

Just thinkin' the logistics through.

Anything for the team!