What If The Best Player Available On The 2017 Draft Board At #10 Is A Running Back?

[BillsImpossible]

That could easily happen.

"With the 10th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Leonard Fournette, Running Back LSU."

How would Bills fans react?

Probably the same way Cowboys fans reacted to their team drafting Ezekiel Elliot.

Do smart teams draft for need, or do they draft the best player available?

Uh oh.

Foursette is 6'1 240 lbs and he can catch too.

Nobody in their right mind would ever want to tackle him.

Shady isn't getting any younger. A player like Foursette would extend McCoy's career.

If Foursette is on the board after the top 2 safeties, CB, WR, LB and TE are off the board....what would you do?

Reach for a quarterback that you hope is great, or draft a player you know will be great?

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[TacklingDummy]

Running backs are dime a dozen. Only a moron drafts one in the 1st round.

It's a passing league now, it's not the 60s, 70s, 80s, or 90s.

[mdcas22]

you draft him or trade down

[BLUTO]

Stop - STOP !

[Mace]

I believe BPA is a myth. It's just not a workable drafting strategy, but teams will always say they used it.

There are simply teams that can afford luxury picks and teams that can't. We can't, imho.

[BillsImpossible]

Running backs are dime a dozen. Only a moron drafts one in the 1st round.

It's a passing league now, it's not the 60s, 70s, 80s, or 90s.

That's the recent trend, no doubt about it.

Had Marshawn Lynch been given the chance to win the Super Bowl a few years ago, that "passing league," sentiment wouldn't be so strong.

The NFL is cyclical. The pass is in, but sooner than later it will be out of style....again, mainly due to college football's infatuation with the spread offense.

It's only a matter of time until the NFL once again becomes a league built upon the run.

College football teams can make more money by not developing NFL franchise QB's.

Name the last QB that was selected in the 1st round of the NFL Draft that had an immediate impact?

Andrew Luck?

[BillsImpossible]

I believe BPA is a myth. It's just not a workable drafting strategy, but teams will always say they used it.

There are simply teams that can afford luxury picks and teams that can't. We can't, imho.

I wouldn't call it a luxury pick, I would call it a drafting the best talent on the board pick.

If the top WR, TE, LB, S and CB are off the board at pick 10, why not draft a player you know will help score touchdowns?

[Luisito23]

Running backs are dime a dozen. Only a moron drafts one in the 1st round.

True, but I'd take him over a DB all day, everyday.

[Mace]

I wouldn't call it a luxury pick, I would call it a drafting the best talent on the board pick.

If the top WR, TE, LB, S and CB are off the board at pick 10, why not draft a player you know will help score touchdowns?

Well, it's pretty arbitrary saying the 2nd best cb, wr, and s aren't better than the best rb in terms of talent to begin with, because they well might be, and I think they are (which is also pretty arbitrary). And then, it becomes, well, we already have successful rb's. And we have a successful rb who is moody and not feasibly cuttable for another year. And we need people that stop people from scoring touchdowns and gaining yards to get maximum benefit from that successful rb.

Hence and forthwith, luxury pick.

Now if Fournette was a trebuchet, Imp...but alas...

[BillsImpossible]

The NFL isn't a passing league, it's a scoring league.

Draft the best player that can help put points on the board.

The recent crop, or crap of rookie NFL QB's from the past decade does not bode well for the passing game.

If anything is out of style in the NFL, it's defense.

Sooner than later, run and stop the run will once again dominate the NFL.

[BillsImpossible]

Well, it's pretty arbitrary saying the 2nd best cb, wr, and s aren't better than the best rb in terms of talent to begin with, because they well might be, and I think they are (which is also pretty arbitrary). And then, it becomes, well, we already have successful rb's. And we have a successful rb who is moody and not feasibly cuttable for another year. And we need people that stop people from scoring touchdowns and gaining yards to get maximum benefit from that successful rb.

Hence and forthwith, luxury pick.

Now if Fournette was a trebuchet, Imp...but alas...

Are the days of the trebuchet over my friend?

Seriously, besides Carr and Prescott, who is the latest and greatest gun slinging NFL QB out there today?

[TacklingDummy]

That's the recent trend, no doubt about it.

Had Marshawn Lynch been given the chance to win the Super Bowl a few years ago, that "passing league," sentiment wouldn't be so strong.

The NFL is cyclical. The pass is in, but sooner than later it will be out of style....again, mainly due to college football's infatuation with the spread offense.

It's only a matter of time until the NFL once again becomes a league built upon the run.

College football teams can make more money by not developing NFL franchise QB's.

Name the last QB that was selected in the 1st round of the NFL Draft that had an immediate impact?

Andrew Luck?
Besides Tom Brady how many non 1st round winner/loser of the Super Bowl have had 1st round QBs?

[TacklingDummy]

True, but I'd take him over a DB all day, everyday.

Would you take Mark Ingram Jr over Patrick Peterson?

[OpIv37]

BPA is a luxury for good teams. Teams like us have too many holes to not try to fill them in the draft.

[TacklingDummy]

The NFL isn't a passing league, it's a scoring league.

Draft the best player that can help put points on the board.

The recent crop, or crap of rookie NFL QB's from the past decade does not bode well for the passing game.

If anything is out of style in the NFL, it's defense.

Sooner than later, run and stop the run will once again dominate the NFL.
Usually scoring by passing.

The Bills had one of the best running games in the league the past 2 years, where did that get them?

[TacklingDummy]

BPA is a luxury for good teams. Teams like us have too many holes to not try to fill them in the draft.

If the BPA is a WR, QB, or CB/S you can't fault the Bills for taking him.

[stuckincincy]

If Foursette is on the board after the top 2 safeties, CB, WR, LB and TE are off the board....what would you do?


I'd take him, or work a trade.

[OpIv37]

If the BPA is a WR, QB, or CB/S you can't fault the Bills for taking him.

Well if the BPA is happens to fill a position of need, duh. But that's coincidence, not draft philosophy.

[Skooby]

He won't make it past Jax, / Thread. If he did, trade with Philly or Indy and get an extra 3 3rd & 4th round pick.

[Skooby]

Shady would be extremely upset as well, so this is an all-around out of your mind idea.

[Mouldsie]

I'd probably rather have McCaffrey since he's a weapon in 3 different phases but I hate the RB early idea always..... though I do agree the NFL is cyclical and may be exploited by a particularly dominant power run game now that stopping the pass is the goal

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Then you trade down and find someone who needs an RB and you stockpile.

[YardRat]

I think the constant rule changes that favor the passing game are going to hinder the league from cycling back to running backs becoming dominant again.

In 1990, 3 teams passed for 4000+ yards, 9 rushed for 2000+.
Last season it was 13 and 4.

[Historian]

Just no.

At 240 lbs he is only going to get fatter.

Especially after he discovers Duffs.

[swiper]

What If The Best Player Available On The 2017 Draft Board At #10 Is A Running Back?

Then you take the 11th best player.

Any more questions?

[The Beef]

BPA is complete bull**** that all teams say they go by but it's bull****. If one of the QB's is the BPA for the Titans 2nd pick do they draft him? Of course not.

If Fournette is on the board when thr Cowboys pick why the **** would they do that?

Almost any other spot besides QB or RB you can you went BPA because there's multiple starters/sub packages.

Only running back I would be remotely interested in, in the first round would be McCaffrey in a trade down (or 2). He offers versatility and can play multiple spots.

Even then it would be a dumb ass pick.

[JoeMama]

Just no.

At 240 lbs he is only going to get fatter.

Especially after he discovers Duffs.

Exactly.

Everyone has Fournette as the top RB on the board, but I rate him 3rd at best.

1) Cook <~~~ who is going to be insanely good IMO
2) McCaffrey

Something about a 240lb RB screams bust to me. Like Ron Dayne. Andre Williams. Even LeVeon Bell looked mediocre his first year when he carried all that extra weight. He didn't become breakout player he is today until he lost about 15lbs his second year.

[Dr. Lecter]

I'd probably rather have McCaffrey since he's a weapon in 3 different phases but I hate the RB early idea always..... though I do agree the NFL is cyclical and may be exploited by a particularly dominant power run game now that stopping the pass is the goal
Sure. Go with the white guy. What a shock......

[Dr. Lecter]

Exactly.

Everyone has Fournette as the top RB on the board, but I rate him 3rd at best.

1) Cook <~~~ who is going to be insanely good IMO
2) McCaffrey

Something about a 240lb RB screams bust to me. Like Ron Dayne. Andre Williams. Even LeVeon Bell looked mediocre his first year when he carried all that extra weight. He didn't become breakout player he is today until he lost about 15lbs his second year.

I agree on Cook. One thing he does, extremely well for a young back, is hesitate and wait for a hole to develop. A lot of college backs just go and run. With less athleticism and talent on defense they can get away with that.

That being said, some of his combine numbers weren't great. But sometimes people use those numbers way too much.

[Thurmal]

We have a generational RB already! Why would they do this?

(Henry > McGahee > Lynch > Spiller)

Oh my God, they actually might do this!

[JoeMama]

Boy I haven't heard Travis Henry mentioned in years.

God what limitless potential he had. But Government Cheese never let go of his rough upbringing...

[JoeMama]

I agree on Cook. One thing he does, extremely well for a young back, is hesitate and wait for a hole to develop. A lot of college backs just go and run. With less athleticism and talent on defense they can get away with that.

That being said, some of his combine numbers weren't great. But sometimes people use those numbers way too much.

The stuff I saw him do at FSU... I just can't put any stock into the combine numbers.

Dude plays freakish fast. And you're right, I love his patience and vision. He'd be a monster behind our run blocking o-line.

Granted I'd never take an RB in the top 10 given the plug and play nature of the position these days.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Our draft history during this drought makes me ask three questions about drafting an RB in the first round. I think that if we get a back who meets all three qualifications that we can have a feature back that will be the face of the franchise. So here goes:

1. Is there a back who will miss a year because of injury?
2. Is there a back who will smoke weed . . . well like . . . I don't know . . . Skittles?
3. Lastly, although this has more to do with coaching style, is McDermott committed to having a game plan that will give the ball to the running back and then pull him out of the game whenever we are inside the twenty for whatever obscene excuse Gailey used when he pulled out Spiller in similar positions?

[sudzy]

I believe BPA is a myth. It's just not a workable drafting strategy, but teams will always say they used it.

There are simply teams that can afford luxury picks and teams that can't. We can't, imho.

Drafting to fill the holes created by the players that we drafted to fill holes four years ago leaving. Where has that gotten this team? This team need talent. I would draft BPA, unless that player plays the same spot as the only really good player on this roster (McCoy). So in answer to the question, no, I would not draft a RB #1. I would draft the BPA that plays any other position.

[THATHURMANATOR]

I would lose my **** if we did

Just resign Gillesie for christs sake

[TacklingDummy]

We have a generational RB already! Why would they do this?

(Henry > McGahee > Lynch > Spiller)

Oh my God, they actually might do this!

I wouldn't be surprised this is McCoys last year. So it wouldn't be a shocker they drafted a RB. I just hope they wait to the 2nd round to do it.

[Wally The Barber]

Maybe we can trade the Running back to the Redskins for Zach Brown.

[Night Train]

What if the 10th best player was actually a Punter or a Long snapper ?

We are obligated to pick him, as per internet twit reasoning ?

[Skooby]

What if the 10th best player was actually a Punter or a Long snapper ?

We are obligated to pick him, as per internet twit reasoning ?
Like Janakowski II??

[JoeMama]

I'd probably rather have McCaffrey since he's a weapon in 3 different phases but I hate the RB early idea always..... though I do agree the NFL is cyclical and may be exploited by a particularly dominant power run game now that stopping the pass is the goal

The kid has the pedigree.

Born and bred by elite sprinters. Grandpa a silver medalist in the 100m dash. Pops has three Superbowl rings. Mom was a kickass soccer player.

That's just a good bloodline for an NFL runningback.

If he fails in the NFL, and I don't think he will, it won't be for a lack of physical attributes.

[BillsImpossible]

I would lose my **** if we did

Just resign Gillesie for christs sake

I agree. That's huge. New England met with Gillislee the other day.

If the Pats sign him, the Bills get a 5th round pick. Gillislee was excellent last year.

McCoy turns 29 years old in July. That's "old," for a running back in the NFL.

In 2015 he missed 4 games.

In 2016 McCoy's performance was...not very good.

In Week 1 and 2, against Baltimore and the Jets, Shady was not good.

He had a good game against the Cardinals in Week 3, then got stuffed by the Pats in Week 4.

The West Coast trip in Week 5 and 6 were McCoy's two best back to back games, against the Rams and 49ers.

From Week 7 to Week 11, McCoy's numbers were really bad.

http://www.nfl.com/player/leseanmccoy/79607/gamelogs?season=2016

In Week 7 against the Fish, Shady carried the ball 8 times for 11 yards.

In Week 8, he did not play against New England.

In Week 9, McCoy carried the ball 21 times for 85 yards and zero TD's against Seattle.

In Week 10, Shady had a BYE

In Week 11, Shady carried the ball 5 times for 33 yards and a TD against the Bengals.

In Week 14 Shady got smothered by Pittsburgh.

LeSean McCoy's 2 best rushing games came against the Rams and the Browns.

Shady's worst 2 rushing games came against Miami and the Steelers. (Not counting the last game against the Jets.)

I look at those numbers and the teams he faced and realize that Shady McCoy's days as an elite NFL running back are running short.

He plays great against weak opponents, but when it comes to playoff teams, Shady's numbers don't stack up very well.

[BillsImpossible]

What if the 10th best player was actually a Punter or a Long snapper ?

We are obligated to pick him, as per internet twit reasoning ?

BPA!

Best Punter Available at pick 10.

[BillsImpossible]

BPA is a luxury for good teams. Teams like us have too many holes to not try to fill them in the draft.

Aaron Maybin and James Hardy strongly agree.

[BillsImpossible]

http://overthecap.com/player/lesean-mccoy/761/

Wow, almost a $9 million cap hit this year for McCoy.

If Shady was putting up the numbers, I'd say do it, pay the man. Why the hell not?

But he's not putting up the numbers.

[BillsImpossible]

Anyone else notice this???

Under the "Dead Money & Cap Space" section, if the Bills cut McCoy after June 1st, the "Dead Money" drops to $2.65 million and the "Cap Savings" would be $6.25 million.

http://overthecap.com/player/lesean-mccoy/761/

[TacklingDummy]

Draft a RB in th 2nd for McCoy replacement next year.

[BillsImpossible]

Oh no.

Shady is making an ass out of himself again, going after Kiko Alonso now.

At least Kiko is not a cop.

Shady called Kiko a "BUM."

That's a good movie title.....

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/04/nfl-lesean-mccoy-kiko-alonso-instagram-tade-bills-dolphins

McCoy got upset because Kiko posted a picture of Shady flying in the air.

It's a great picture. All Shady had to do was say something smart and funny like, "I Believe I Can Fly," or "They call me Super Shady."

Nah, Shady got all worked up like a diva and ripped The Legend of Kiko Alonso.

Shady went low by calling Kiko a bum, and made fun of his "puny" contract with the Dolphins.

That's what I would call bad football diplomacy.

[TacklingDummy]

Never been a fan of him. Can't wait until he's gone,

[BillsImpossible]

In a way, McCoy is stoking the old rivalry fire against the Fish, so in that respect I like him.

From a production point of view though, Shady has not produced the kind of results that justify paying him big money.

If http://overthecap.com/player/lesean-mccoy/761/ is right, I think LeSean McCoy is going to get cut after June 1st.

[Turf]

In a way, McCoy is stoking the old rivalry fire against the Fish, so in that respect I like him.

From a production point of view though, Shady has not produced the kind of results that justify paying him big money.

If http://overthecap.com/player/lesean-mccoy/761/ is right, I think LeSean McCoy is going to get cut after June 1st.

You know really you're worse than yellow journalism. Keep rehashing the same wrong thought over and over until people are actually dumb enough to believe it. You don't make any ****ing sense.

[BillsImpossible]

You know really you're worse than yellow journalism. Keep rehashing the same wrong thought over and over until people are actually dumb enough to believe it. You don't make any ****ing sense.

Are the numbers wrong? After June 1st, his dead cap money goes way down to $2.65 million.

The Bills can save $6 million against the cap if they cut McCoy after June 1st.

Look at McCoy's production over the last 2 seasons....

http://www.nfl.com/player/leseanmccoy/79607/gamelogs?season=2015

http://www.nfl.com/player/leseanmccoy/79607/gamelogs?season=2016

Is that kind of production worth an almost $9 million cap hit?

[YardRat]

McCoy is overpaid, I think several posters have acknowledged that from the beginning when he was traded for then extended.

[Night Train]

McCoy is overpaid... and I don't care. Glad we have him. That trade was one sided in our favor.

[swiper]

Absolutely McCoy is one player I wouldn't complain is overpaid. Worth every penny to this team.

[sudzy]

What if the 10th best player was actually a Punter or a Long snapper ?

We are obligated to pick him, as per internet twit reasoning ?

You know that is just being silly. So let's draft Gilmore's replacement so we can draft his replacement in 4 years. Just don't give a thought to anyone that could be great a thought, if we don't have a glaring hole there. We need to keep the blueprint to 7-9 going. James Hardy filled a need or did he?

[sudzy]

Besides, how many positions wouldn't be considered a need other then RB? Are we set at LB? In the secondary? With Kyle about ready to retire and Marcell on the verge of being suspended for the year is DL a concern? How about the offense? Are we set on the line? WR? QB????? I'm in favor of drafting the BPA that's not a RB (or just a ST guy). The Bills need a home run here, not just another base hit.

[YardRat]

You know that is just being silly. So let's draft Gilmore's replacement so we can draft his replacement in 4 years. Just don't give a thought to anyone that could be great a thought, if we don't have a glaring hole there. We need to keep the blueprint to 7-9 going. James Hardy filled a need or did he?

That's the way it is in today's NFL, with the cap and still quickly escalating salaries. It's become more of a college-type system where long-term commitments are more the exception rather than the rule. Draft somebody and plan on replacing them in four to five years, especially if they perform well enough to demand a top 5 salary on the open market. Can't keep too many core guys anymore on a consistent basis, unless you plan on designating 50% or more of your cap to your last three or four #1 draft picks, especially if you are fortunate for all of them to meet performance expectations.

[Buddo]

BPA is a myth. If it wasn't, you could just be allocated a player by his status on a 'big board'.

Teams are able to claim it, as the saying is 'on our board'.

Buddy Nix decried the BPA notion as it seems to stand with many people, as simply the best player available, explaining that 'need' is a factor when teams set up their boards in the first place. Which will lead to skewed rankings from one team to another.

You also have to account for how different teams view 'character'. Some teams will already have removed some guys from their boards altogether, due to 'character' concerns. Some of those guys might be highly talented, and just from a numbers standpoint, easily the best player available, yet won't get picked, due to character 'issues'. Other teams might be prepared to take a chance with them, but could drop them until a lower round (or two), at which point they believe the risk/reward becomes acceptable.

If a team already deems it has the guys it wants, and needs, at any given position group, they are highly unlikely to add to it, when they can add to a different position group that they don't feel is complete.

Assuming that Gillislee is re-signed, it would make sense for the Bills to not have a RB on their list of 1st round picks at all.

You could argue the same thing, but for different reasons, with the CB position. Due to the alleged depth of this draft at DB, we probably shouldn't be drafting a CB with the #10 pick either. Not that we don't have a need for one, but rather that we don't have a need for the exceptional degree of talent, that one taken that high, probably has, when we are shifting to a zone based secondary scheme. After all, it's one of the reasons why we weren't going to pay Gilmore what he wanted, as it doesn't represent the right sort of value to us, given the scheme we are going to use.

Now we might still go CB, but it will be more for the reasons Yardie gives, and will represent a cheap replacement cycle, with the likelihood being that after 4 or 5 years, we won't be looking to retain him, but draft another one. Not necessarily as high though, assuming the schemes remain the same.

There will still be grades given to guys you have no intention of picking, but they will be for information, so you know who might be interested in making a deal to get them.

[stuckincincy]

That's the way it is in today's NFL, with the cap and still quickly escalating salaries. It's become more of a college-type system where long-term commitments are more the exception rather than the rule. Draft somebody and plan on replacing them in four to five years, especially if they perform well enough to demand a top 5 salary on the open market. Can't keep too many core guys anymore on a consistent basis, unless you plan on designating 50% or more of your cap to your last three or four #1 draft picks, especially if you are fortunate for all of them to meet performance expectations.

Well said.

I'd add that if you are drafting 8th or 9th, it makes some sense to try to get out of the top 10.

[Bill Cody]

if we use the pick at 10 I hope it's because a player on defense that we rank better than 10 is on the board. Otherwise I hope we trade down into the 20's and draft Trubisky or Mahoney. Will I be happy if the pick is Mike Williams or Leonard Fournette? No. But to be fair either guy is better than the typical Bills 1st rounder.
Btw, Fournette weighed 228 at his Pro Day

[BillsImpossible]

The best player available is the one that can score the most points for your team.

Shady scored 13 TD's in 2016, and that's great on paper but he didn't put up the big numbers against the teams the Bills need to beat in the AFC East.

Dak Prescott had a great rookie year as QB for the Cowboys.

Half the reason why he had a great rookie season was because of Ezekiel Elliot and an excellent offensive line.

Take away Elliot and I don't think the Cowboys and Prescott would have done squat.

Unless you're the Patriots, every other team has to be able to run to set up the pass.

The Bills were able to run against weak opponents for the past 2 seasons.

The Bills "vaunted," rushing attack is not good against the teams they need to beat.

What are the chances that LeSean McCoy gets injured in 2017 and misses 2 games or more?

25% ?

That's too high.

What are the chances that LeSean McCoy runs for 100 yards or more against the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets 6 times on Sunday in 2017?

10% ?

That's too low.

McCoy is gone after June 1st in my Humble Bills Opinion (HBO)...

Nothing against Shady, but I don't want to build my team around an old running back that hasn't put up the kind of numbers a coach needs to see in a running back making $8 million a season.

[sudzy]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/32for32x170419/nfl-alternate-realities-biggest-draft-all-32-teams


The Buffalo area is not a hotbed of NFL prospects, but Gronkowski -- perhaps the greatest tight end in NFL history -- grew up in nearby Williamsville, New York, and easily could have played for his hometown team. Every team except the Ravens, Panthers and Bears passed up Gronkowski before the Patriots selected him No. 42 in 2010. But the Bills had the No. 41 selection and took defensive tackle Torell Troup, whose career was cut short by a back injury.

But, Troup filled a need, so it was a good pick, if you listen to some posters on this board.