To Doug Whaley...you never learned your leasson Trade DOWN, not up in the draft......

[DraftCzar]

Sammy Watkins shows the risks of trading up

Posted by Michael David Smith on May 4, 2017, 6:06 AM EDT PROFOOTBALLTALK.com




The Bills were so eager to draft him that they traded two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick to move up and get him.

That was a mistake, as it usually is when teams trade up. The draft is just too unpredictable to justify pouring those kinds of resources into any one prospect. The smarter move is to acquire a lot of picks and hope that at least some of them pan out.

When the Bills announced this week that they would not pick up Watkins’ fifth-year option, they were essentially admitting that the move up for Watkins was a mistake. And it was a particularly costly mistake because the Bills probably would have ended up with a better player than Watkins if they had just stayed put at No. 9, rather than moving up to No. 4 to take Watkins: Still on the board at No. 9 was Odell Beckham (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9403/odell-beckham), who has proven to be a much better receiver than Watkins, not to mention Pro Bowlers Anthony Barr (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9432/anthony-barr), Taylor Lewan (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9398/taylor-lewan), Aaron Donald (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9356/aaron-donald), Ryan Shazier (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9430/ryan-shazier), Zack Martin (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9422/zack-martin) and C.J. Mosley (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9631/cj-mosley), all of whom went off the board between Pick 9 and Pick 17.

If the Bills didn’t want Beckham for whatever reason, they could have drafted one of those other Pro Bowlers with the ninth overall pick and used their second-round pick to take Allen Robinson (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9297/allen-robinson) or Jarvis Landry (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9405/jarvis-landry), second-round receivers from the 2014 draft who have both out-performed Watkins through the first three seasons of their careers.

If you’re going to give up two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick for one player, you’d better be absolutely certain that one player is going to be far better than the players you could get with the picks you gave up. And in reality, no team is ever absolutely certain. Absolute certainty just isn’t available in the NFL draft.

It’s just the simple reality that trading up in the NFL draft is a big risk, one that usually doesn’t pay off.

Bills/Whaley traded up, giving up two 4th round picks, to get Reggie Ragland last year. How did that turn out?
Bills/Whaley traded up, twice in this year's draft, giving away a # of picks, how will that turn out?

[sukie]

It's not that Watkins isn't jaw droppingly lights-out talented..... It's the fragility of the kid. No way to project that the kid would be hurt every 3rd week while in the war room.

I do agree the cost of the selection was crazy but I don't put the injury bug on Whaley et al.

[Skooby]

Some brilliant guy on there defended Sammy.

[Buffalogic]

The Falcons must be idiots too for trading up for Julio Jones.

Putting multiple eggs in one basket is never a good thing, but how could they know Sammy was so soft and brittle?

The talent and the numbers are there when he is on the field, he's just rarely on it. Sammy has something to prove this year and that's never a bad thing.

[Woodman]

It (****) happens when one falls in love.

Not worried about dropping 5th year option.

[feldspar]

It's not that Watkins isn't jaw droppingly lights-out talented..... It's the fragility of the kid. No way to project that the kid would be hurt every 3rd week while in the war room.

I do agree the cost of the selection was crazy but I don't put the injury bug on Whaley et al.

Watkins hurt his foot, and that could happen to anyone.

The real crime here was that the Bills forced Watkins back into the lineup too early, exacerbating the injury and vastly prolonging his recovery time. Now it's a nagging injury I hope he can overcome this year even.

The Bills mishandled all that and did Watkins no favors.

[Buffalogic]

Watkins hurt his foot, and that could happen to anyone.

The real crime here was that the Bills forced Watkins back into the lineup too early, exacerbating the injury and vastly prolonging his recovery time. Now it's a nagging injury I hope he can overcome this year even.

The Bills mishandled all that and did Watkins no favors.You can thank idiot Rex for that. Rushing him back to try and save his job hurt both Sammy and the team.

[Joe Fo Sho]

You trade up for a quarterback, not someone who will be worthless if you don't have a quarterback. Trade up for other positions after you have a quarterback, if you need to.

Everything is forgiven when you get a quarterback.

[SpikedLemonade]

You trade up for a quarterback, not someone who will be worthless if you don't have a quarterback. Trade up for other positions after you have a quarterback, if you need to.

Everything is forgiven when you get a quarterback.

It is not enough these days in San Diego/LA and New Orleans.

[OpIv37]

It's not that Watkins isn't jaw droppingly lights-out talented..... It's the fragility of the kid. No way to project that the kid would be hurt every 3rd week while in the war room.

I do agree the cost of the selection was crazy but I don't put the injury bug on Whaley et al.

Well they didn't know specifically in the war room but injuries are a possibility for literally any player. That's why you don't spend two 1sts and a 4th on one guy. And that's the whole point of the article.

Think about it this way: if you could trade Buffalo's next two first round picks for ANY current NFL player except a top 15 QB, who would you take? How many current players would be worth it? Watt, OBJ, Gronk maybe but he's hurt a lot... maybe a couple more but there are only 5-10 guys in the league who would be worth it, and those are proven NFL commodities.

It's never worth the risk. I mean, if you want to give up a 4th to move down 10 spots in the 3rd, sure, but giving up first round picks is just stupid.

[Albany,n.y.]

The Falcons must be idiots too for trading up for Julio Jones.



The biggest idiots were the 49ers, who traded up for some small college WR in the 1985 draft. I don't know whatever happened to the guy.

[Zero]

You know, when the Bills traded up I was initially hoping we had done so to to get Kalil Mack. My question to the board is, had that been the case, would you have been happy with that?

[Buffalogic]

You know, when the Bills traded up I was initially hoping we had done so to to get Kalil Mack. My question to the board is, had that been the case, would you have been happy with that?Yes. That year I had a gut feeling we were moving up for Sammy or Mack. When we moved up, I was excited, I just didn't know who they were going to take.

[Buffalogic]

The Raiders were going to take Watkins at five. The Bills thought they had to get in front of them to get Watkins (they were right).

[swiper]

It's not that Watkins isn't jaw droppingly lights-out talented..... It's the fragility of the kid. No way to project that the kid would be hurt every 3rd week while in the war room.

I do agree the cost of the selection was crazy but I don't put the injury bug on Whaley et al.

Nevertheless it underscores the risk of any GM trading away so many assets for one rookie. It's too much for any position except a gimme franchise QB like a Roethlisberger, Manning, or Ryan. (The list does not include JP Losman however, LOL).

- - - Updated - - -


The Raiders were going to take Watkins at five. The Bills thought they had to get in front of them to get Watkins (they were right).

Then the Raiders could be left to handle his foot issue and Whaley could have had Beckham. If he was smart.

And, again, he could have taken Mack who turned out to be a better player to date.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Another boring hindsight is 20/20 article.

[swiper]

Another boring hindsight is 20/20 article.

Agreed. But it gives some of us a chance to complain about the move for the 99th time. :nod:

[OpIv37]

Another boring hindsight is 20/20 article.

If this were just a bad pick, I'd agree with you. But anyone with half a brain knows that trading up carries too much risk and many of us said it at the time.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Same old boring, predictable blather.

[Novacane]

WR don't make crappy QB become miraculously good! We drafted a WR hoping to make EJ better. That's stupid. It was stupid when Whaley did it and it's even dumber now because Sammy ended up being mr brittle.

[Arm of Harm]

A while back I looked at the history of the teams in the AFC East. Specifically, I wanted to know how many franchise QBs each team had had in its history.

Dolphins: 2
Patriots: 1.5 (Brady, and half of Bledsoe's career)
Jets: 1 (Namath)
Bills: 1 (Kelly. Neither Kemp nor Ferguson were franchise QBs.)

All the AFC East's Super Bowl wins, and nearly all its Super Bowl appearances, occurred when the team in question had a franchise QB. Would I be willing to trade up in the draft, if I felt that by doing so I could get a franchise QB? Absolutely! Getting an elite QB fundamentally changes the equation for your football franchise, for the next ten to fifteen years. Changing that equation is worth surrendering a few draft picks.

Trading up for a non-QB is different. Doing so can be worth it, if you get a Hall of Fame player like Jerry Rice or Julio Jones. Note that both those WRs were paired with some really good QBs. (Montana and Ryan.)

The problem with the Watkins trade-up is that Whaley went all-in on a WR, at a time when he didn't have a quarterback.

[OpIv37]

A while back I looked at the history of the teams in the AFC East. Specifically, I wanted to know how many franchise QBs each team had had in its history.

Dolphins: 2
Patriots: 1.5 (Brady, and half of Bledsoe's career)
Jets: 1 (Namath)
Bills: 1 (Kelly. Neither Kemp nor Ferguson were franchise QBs.)

All the AFC East's Super Bowl wins, and nearly all its Super Bowl appearances, occurred when the team in question had a franchise QB. Would I be willing to trade up in the draft, if I felt that by doing so I could get a franchise QB? Absolutely! Getting an elite QB fundamentally changes the equation for your football franchise, for the next ten to fifteen years. Changing that equation is worth surrendering a few draft picks.

Trading up for a non-QB is different. Doing so can be worth it, if you get a Hall of Fame player like Jerry Rice or Julio Jones. Note that both those WRs were paired with some really good QBs. (Montana and Ryan.)

The problem with the Watkins trade-up is that Whaley went all-in on a WR, at a time when he didn't have a quarterback.

The problem with trading up for QB's is so many turn out to be busts. Also, when there is a talent that promising, the only teams willing to trade down would be a team that already has a franchise QB, and those teams are never drafting in the top 5.

[YardRat]

Bob Griese is not a franchise QB, but I agree with the rest. Kinda shows how difficult it is to get a 'franchise' guy.

[Mace]

Bob Griese is not a franchise QB, but I agree with the rest. Kinda shows how difficult it is to get a 'franchise' guy.

Not sure I'd agree about Griese (people having varying definitions of the term "franchise QB"), but it opens up the bigger point that a team doesn't need a "franchise" QB to be successful.

The "franchise" QB is rare and you can't bank on finding one. Wild reaches cause more harm than good, putting a team in a perpetual holding pattern for years at a pop if that's all they're aiming for. Best thing to do is build a good team and find a good QB to lead it.

[DraftCzar]

Well they didn't know specifically in the war room but injuries are a possibility for literally any player. That's why you don't spend two 1sts and a 4th on one guy. And that's the whole point of the article.

Think about it this way: if you could trade Buffalo's next two first round picks for ANY current NFL player except a top 15 QB, who would you take? How many current players would be worth it? Watt, OBJ, Gronk maybe but he's hurt a lot... maybe a couple more but there are only 5-10 guys in the league who would be worth it, and those are proven NFL commodities.

It's never worth the risk. I mean, if you want to give up a 4th to move down 10 spots in the 3rd, sure, but giving up first round picks is just stupid.

Thank you!

[DraftCzar]

WR don't make crappy QB become miraculously good! We drafted a WR hoping to make EJ better. That's stupid. It was stupid when Whaley did it and it's even dumber now because Sammy ended up being mr brittle.

Other trade ups can be dissected as well.

Trading up in the 2nd, and throwing in two extra 4th round picks to get a LBer (Reggie Ragland) can back fire if either the player gets injured, or, the player is not as good as you hoped.

Those are the two significant risks of trading up (for non-QBs). 1) Guy might get injured, then you have blown 3 picks on that 1 guy
or 2) He bombs out. Again 3 picks for 1 guy.

[Historian]

Not sure I'd agree about Griese (people having varying definitions of the term "franchise QB"),

The whole premise is silly, unless you define what a Franchise QB is.

Griese won two SBs. Woodly took them to one.

Fergy played here for ten years. He's not a franchise QB?

Or Grogan? Or Todd? Tell that to the guys that had to defend against them.

Or Bert Jones? Or Peyton Manning? The Colts were in our division until recently you know.

Just plain silly.

[YardRat]

A forty-year-old washed-up has-been grandfather could have QB'd those Dolphins teams without losing a game.

Oh, wait...one did.

[Buffalogic]

The problem with trading up for QB's is so many turn out to be busts. Also, when there is a talent that promising, the only teams willing to trade down would be a team that already has a franchise QB, and those teams are never drafting in the top 5.Ten/LA Goff trade. But yes, they are rare.

Here's our best case scenario for a qb. Three bottom feeder teams didn't address their QB needs this draft. The Browns (Kizer wouldn't stop them from taking a qb at the top of the draft next year) The Niners and the Jets.

Jets are in full tank so they are most likely going to end up with a top 2 pick that would secure a qb in next years draft.

What we need to root for is that the niners remain terrible and also get a top 2 pick. We need to hope the connection between Cousins and Shanahan is so strong that the niners signing him in the offseason is virtually a certainty. That would free up their pick to trade for with our multiple first rounders.

Or we need the Bears to be horrible and get a top 2 pick since they scooped Trubisky this year so their pick would be free next year.

Long story short, we need either the Niners (post Cousins signing) or Bears in the top 2 in order to trade up for a franchise guy. If the Browns and Jets are in the top two, we are toast.

[Zero]

At the end of the day I think what we all found it is that Whaley was a good talent evaluator not a good GM. Having an eye for talent is only one of the requisite skills necessary to excel as a GM in this league. Whaley botched a couple of drafts by grossly overpaying for players (Watkins, EJ), mismanaged our cap by offering onerous contracts (Clay, Tyrod) and was notorious for not playing nice with his colleagues (Marrone, Rex)- all symptoms of his vast ineptitude at the position.

[DraftCzar]

Ten/LA Goff trade. But yes, they are rare.

Here's our best case scenario for a qb. Three bottom feeder teams didn't address their QB needs this draft. The Browns (Kizer wouldn't stop them from taking a qb at the top of the draft next year) The Niners and the Jets.

Jets are in full tank so they are most likely going to end up with a top 2 pick that would secure a qb in next years draft.

What we need to root for is that the niners remain terrible and also get a top 2 pick. We need to hope the connection between Cousins and Shanahan is so strong that the niners signing him in the offseason is virtually a certainty. That would free up their pick to trade for with our multiple first rounders.

Or we need the Bears to be horrible and get a top 2 pick since they scooped Trubisky this year so their pick would be free next year.

Long story short, we need either the Niners (post Cousins signing) or Bears in the top 2 in order to trade up for a franchise guy. If the Browns and Jets are in the top two, we are toast.

You are on to something. Just because we have two first round picks next year does not mean we have that good a shot at the best QBs coming out next year.

I really think QBs will go #1 and #2 overall next year. Possibly even #1, #2 and #3.

In 2015 and 2016 it was QBs going #1 and #2. And this year, in a "crummy" QB class one QB went #2.

How do we get all the way up to say #2? The price will be huge. Did you see what Chicago paid to move from #3 to #2? How about what the Redskins paid to move up from #6 to #2 to draft RGIII.....three first-round draft picks and a second-round pick.

If we aren't drafting in the Top 8, it is going to be a real long shot for us to get up to #2. And, what if the the teams sitting at #1 and #2 draft the QBs for themselves?

[SpikedLemonade]

You are on to something. Just because we have two first round picks next year does not mean we have that good a shot at the best QBs coming out next year.

I really think QBs will go #1 and #2 overall next year. Possibly even #1, #2 and #3.

In 2015 and 2016 it was QBs going #1 and #2. And this year, in a "crummy" QB class one QB went #2.

How do we get all the way up to say #2? The price will be huge. Did you see what Chicago paid to move from #3 to #2? How about what the Redskins paid to move up from #6 to #2 to draft RGIII.....three first-round draft picks and a second-round pick.

If we aren't drafting in the Top 8, it is going to be a real long shot for us to get up to #2. And, what if the the teams sitting at #1 and #2 draft the QBs for themselves?

Sounds like we need a 2-14 season.

[DynaPaul]

Have you hard of Perry Tuttle who played for the Bills? History repeats itself.

[swiper]

A while back I looked at the history of the teams in the AFC East. Specifically, I wanted to know how many franchise QBs each team had had in its history.

Dolphins: 2
Patriots: 1.5 (Brady, and half of Bledsoe's career)
Jets: 1 (Namath)
Bills: 1 (Kelly. Neither Kemp nor Ferguson were franchise QBs.)

All the AFC East's Super Bowl wins, and nearly all its Super Bowl appearances, occurred when the team in question had a franchise QB. Would I be willing to trade up in the draft, if I felt that by doing so I could get a franchise QB? Absolutely! Getting an elite QB fundamentally changes the equation for your football franchise, for the next ten to fifteen years. Changing that equation is worth surrendering a few draft picks.

Trading up for a non-QB is different. Doing so can be worth it, if you get a Hall of Fame player like Jerry Rice or Julio Jones. Note that both those WRs were paired with some really good QBs. (Montana and Ryan.)

The problem with the Watkins trade-up is that Whaley went all-in on a WR, at a time when he didn't have a quarterback.

Tony Eason

[Mace]

A forty-year-old washed-up has-been grandfather could have QB'd those Dolphins teams without losing a game.

Oh, wait...one did.

Then you could say they had a franchise QB since he QB'ed the franchise adequately, oh Crankenstein monster, who wanders the the villages to gloom the peasants.

[Arm of Harm]

The whole premise is silly, unless you define what a Franchise QB is.

Griese won two SBs. Woodly took them to one.

Fergy played here for ten years. He's not a franchise QB?

Or Grogan? Or Todd? Tell that to the guys that had to defend against them.

Or Bert Jones? Or Peyton Manning? The Colts were in our division until recently you know.

Just plain silly.


My analysis included only the four teams currently in the AFC East. If you want to run your own analysis with the Colts included, fine. Be my guest. But it is not "just plain silly" to exclude the Colts.

The term "franchise QB" normally means a QB who plays at an elite level, or a QB whose level of play is not too far below the elite QBs. If you're not happy about how that term is commonly used, that's fine. But your unhappiness with the usual usage of the phrase is not relevant to my analysis.

As for the specific example of Ferguson: his career yards per attempt is 6.6, compared to 6.7 for Ryan Fitzpatrick. One of the best QBs of Ferguson's era was Roger Staubach, who averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. One of the best QBs of Fitz's era is Tom Brady, whose career average is 7.5 yards per attempt. Both Ferguson and Fitzpatrick were about equally far below the best QBs of their respective eras, at least in terms of yards per attempt.

Ferguson was the starting QB when we had O.J. Simpson, and was also the starting QB when we had Joe Cribbs. The Bills were primarily a running team during the bulk of Ferguson's career, and with a very good running game to boot. That tends to prop up a QB's yards per attempt. Many of Fitz's offenses were pass-oriented, making it more difficult to achieve the same yards per pass attempt. It is very far from clear that Ferguson was any better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, and may have been worse.

[mdcas22]

one thing you got to put in to perspective is what if Sammy had a QB like Manning or Brady? even with his injurys Id bet they would have took the 5th if we had a better passing QB, Sammy did pretty good when Orton took over and thats not a easy thing for any WR in his 1st year, if Orton would have started the year off Sammy might have have between 80 and 90 receptions and would hve matched Beckhams numbers if the 2 were reversed.

[DraftCzar]

one thing you got to put in to perspective is what if Sammy had a QB like Manning or Brady? even with his injurys Id bet they would have took the 5th if we had a better passing QB, Sammy did pretty good when Orton took over and thats not a easy thing for any WR in his 1st year, if Orton would have started the year off Sammy might have have between 80 and 90 receptions and would hve matched Beckhams numbers if the 2 were reversed.

A lot of woulda, shoulda, coulda in NFL history. I think it is simple, Sammy Watkins needs to put together a complete season this year and shut up the critics. Or, he will probably be an ex-Bill.

[Arm of Harm]

A lot of woulda, shoulda, coulda in NFL history. I think it is simple, Sammy Watkins needs to put together a complete season this year and shut up the critics. Or, he will probably be an ex-Bill.

I'm sure the Patriots would like an upgrade over Chris Hogan.

[mdcas22]

A lot of woulda, shoulda, coulda in NFL history. I think it is simple, Sammy Watkins needs to put together a complete season this year and shut up the critics. Or, he will probably be an ex-Bill.
I agree. but I think the injury's is why the Bills didn't exercise the 5th year option jot his talent.