Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

[TigerJ]

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/5/30/15711590/aaron-schatz-picks-bills-as-team-that-worse-this-offseason


I don't have ESPN Insider to read the original article, but the above is an intermediate link, and Chris Trapasso will give you a thumbnail of Schatz argument. Schatz, BTW is the founder of Football outsiders. His point - Buffalo is worse because they lost 2 CBs, 2 WRs and Mike Gillislee. I think that's a pretty shallow argument, personally. Stephon Gilmore is a clear loss, but it is not as big as it might be because Gilmore is a weak tackling man cover corner, who is not a great fit for a zone coverage defense that places a premium on physicality and tackling. The new CB is going to have a learning curve, but he is a better fit. I also expect to see good things from Kevon Seymour this season. He was a pleasant surprise a year ago, and I think we'll see a significant bump in his play. I think by midseason cornerback play will be improved versus 2016.

I also liked Robert Woods, but he was never a key to WR productivity for the Bills. The keys, IMO are QB play and Sammy Watkins' health. Zay Jones may need an adjustment before he's the equal of Woods as a #2, but his athleticism and skill set are potentially superior. I think at the #3 through #5 or 6 spots, Buffalo has better depth now. Listenbee will hopefully be healthy and we can see what he has. Holmes is superior to Hunter, Streater can surprise, and there is more experience.

Gillislee was good for the Bills, but I don't think he is an irreplaceable difference maker. Buffalo has potentially better short yardage backs, a run friendly system, better offensive line play (I think Dawkins is going to surprise), and potentially better D-line play. The main question for me is at weak side linebacker. Hodges looks like the starter, not because he's got a champion pedigree, but because the Bills have nobody better. We'll see.

[cookie G]

The major holes look to have been filled, with a possible upgrade to the right side of the oline. But they are being filled by rookies, so there is going to be uncertainity.

Im more worried about inevitable scheme changes, "buying in", comeplete teardowns of things that were working, etc.

[Night Train]

It's OK. He's just expressing an opinion.

The coach, his schemes and the execution is everything. Camp and pre-season need to happen.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Those big pieces that we lost were known contributors. We know precisely what we will be missing. Replacing them with question marks amid a new coaching staff, system changes, and a lot of youth makes me think we're not as good, either. I don't think it would necessarily translate to a significant difference in wins/losses if we had a similar difficulty level in our schedule compared to last year given the awfulness Ryan created.

[endzone]

I don't see how they could get worse by losing anyone!

[Cali512]

Gilmore was picked on by the jets and patriots when we played them. He's not that great

[OpIv37]

He's right. Who do we have that's better than what we lost? Answer: maybe some draft picks. But let's face it- this team doesn't have a stellar draft history and Whaley wasn't fired til AFTER the draft, not to mention the entire scouting staff and Whaley himself knew they were getting the axe. That's not exactly when people do their best work.


Unless this is the league's best draft of the last 30 years, we are worse than last year.

[Night Train]

Gilmore played well the last 6 games of 2016 (meaningless at that point) after looking bad the first 10 games.

In a contract year, that didn't bode well in my eyes. 5 years- 65 Mil seems silly but because it's the Pats, it's less of a gamble for them, I suppose. All their moves were very out of character for them, which may be the thinking that their once in a lifetime QB is 40 years old and the window for continued success is getting very short.

[GingerP]

which may be the thinking that their once in a lifetime QB is 40 years old and the window for continued success is getting very short.

Except... their backup may be the 2nd-best QB in the division.

[kishoph]

Concerning the roster, on paper it be hard to disagree with him. Fortunately the games not played on paper and hopefully with better coaching and better schemes the Bills can make up for those lost players.

[OpIv37]

Concerning the roster, on paper it be hard to disagree with him. Fortunately the games not played on paper and hopefully with better coaching and better schemes the Bills can make up for those lost players.

not yet.

The O will probably be pretty similar. The D is switching schemes for what? the 4th time in 6 years? I lost track. And I don't think McDermott has the personnel to do what he wants to do at this point.

[Goobylal]

not yet.

The O will probably be pretty similar. The D is switching schemes for what? the 4th time in 6 years? I lost track. And I don't think McDermott has the personnel to do what he wants to do at this point.

He has most of it. SAM and MLB bear watching with Alexander and Ragland projected as starters there. Still I'd take it over a 3-4, that suits just a few players.

Moving back to the 4-3 is huge. I knew Rex would ruin the defense going to a 3-4.

[Goobylal]

And I think that at worst, the O will be the same. However I see upgrades in Jones, Holmes, and Brown at WR, DiMarco at FB, and Dawkins at RT.

[Skooby]

Worse in the schedule.

[Topas]

Worse players: we replaced contributers with question marks. They could turn out to be better. But probably not all and probably not immediately. So worse.
Better coaching. No explanation necessary. Kermit the frog would be in improvement over last year.

Dont know how this will turn out. I hope the schedule is hard enough that McDermott cannot get a lot of wins this year. Lets see.

[Wally The Barber]

TJ Yates is GOD

[YardRat]

not yet.

The O will probably be pretty similar. The D is switching schemes for what? the 4th time in 6 years? I lost track. And I don't think McDermott has the personnel to do what he wants to do at this point.


He has most of it. SAM and MLB bear watching with Alexander and Ragland projected as starters there. Still I'd take it over a 3-4, that suits just a few players.

Moving back to the 4-3 is huge. I knew Rex would ruin the defense going to a 3-4.
They still need to figure out who is going to play the Mace.

Maybe Hyde, instead of a more traditional safety role? Maybe that's why McD targeted him early, and gave him a nice contract.

[Buddo]

Imho, the biggest question mark on how the team will do, is going to be in the Secondary, especially at Safety. I don't have a problem with Hyde, but after him, I think it's very dubious, tbh.

CB play shouldn't be too much of an issue, due to scheme changes, with help being available. As pointed out, Gilmore is a good man CB, but his tackling leaves a lot to be desired. The scheme change will benefit a solid guy who can tackle well, and I expect us to have one on the roster. Darby is a far better tackler than Gilmore imho,and could be set to make some waves again

The front 4 has plenty of talent for a 4 man front, especially with Dareus and Williams in the middle. Hughes is proven at DE in a 4 man front, and I think you could easily use Alexander as an anchor against the run at the other end, and that is without Lawson. Getting good pressure regularly, will ease the load on the secondary, also.

LBer is a bit of an unknown, but more from how the permutations will pan out, rather than not having any talent, particularly now that Hodges has been signed. People, understandably, want a guy with the speed of Kuehly (sp?), but providing you have someone who gets side to side quick enough, it isn't a scheme deal breaker. Ragland has an extra degree of 'grunt' that Kuehly doesn't possess, and finding a way for that to be used, could pay other benefits.

On Offense, improvement at RT will make a significant difference, as will a healthy Watkins (fingers crossed). Zone or Man blocking schemes, won't make much difference to McCoy, as he's an elite talent. It might make more of a difference when it comes to whoever our #2 is though, and while Gillislee is a loss, Williams isn't a mug, and it would seem that he had some injury issues previously, that weren't talked about much.

WR depth has to be better, although I wanted to keep Woods. I think Jones will be an important part of the mix, and could make a big impact, as having possibly the best hands in the draft, is a big positive, especially when Tyrod is hurling short passes at a rate of knots at you.

Overall, I'd say that the focus on individual losses, hasn't been weighed well enough, against the scheme and coaching changes. I'd be surprised if we made the playoffs this year, but I can easily see a comparable record to last year, with much more consistent play overall, in a tougher schedule. If guys stay healthy, then I could see us vying for a playoff spot. There will be some inevitable rookie lumps along the way, but I can see us starting to look like a potential contender from the half way point onwards.

[sukie]

Worse in the schedule.
I hate the fact that Bills fans look at toughness of schedule when there was a time (a few here lived it in adulthood) when the Bills made other teams fans cry about the toughness of schedule.
We all looked at the schedule to see who we would crush live at Orchard Park.

Wally remembers... He was in his late 60s.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I think they will be about the same, a good chance to be a little better, like one game.

I'm in the camp that Tyrod will hit his peak this year. Almost all QBs hit their peak in year 3, even though he sat on the bench for 4 years to begin his career. Mind you I agree with Whaley that Tyrod's ceiling is not that high. But if he manages to take a step up from what he did last two years, it would still be the best the Bills have had in years at this most critical position (since Flutie?).

Tyrod aside, the offense also has some interesting stories. Long term, I don't like the outlook (and nobody should be without a Brady at QB). But short term, McCoy, Watkins, Clay, even O-Line Wood, Incognito are all talented but likely looking at free agency due to age or injury concerns. When the words talented and motivation put together, positive outcomes usually follow, unless Rick Denison is a complete idiot.

On defense, the long term outlook is brighter but short term we could very well suffer. Big time scheme change, talent loss, unproven young players. I'm not so sure about D line being as good as people are making them. It's reasonable to assume Dareus to play better, entering his prime years, but Williams and Hughes are all getting long in tooth. Last years' draftees give us no reason to be optimistic. We don't know if we have one single ideal fit for the linebacker corp. and the secondary is really thin at quality safeties, like Buddo pointed out. I still contend that the Bills defense never recovered from the blow of Aaron Williams going out of service last year. And this year that person to watch is Micah Hyde. The scheme might be simpler and the coaching might be better so that the defense does not self-defeating like last year, but the combination of changes and personnel make you wonder if indeed they will take a step backwards.

[streetkings01]

We got better due to Rex and Rob being fired.

[sukie]

We got better due to Rex and Rob being fired.
That is true

[Mahdi]

Gilmore was picked on by the jets and patriots when we played them. He's not that great

Losing Gilmore was big...

That being said, adjusting the scheme zone and bringing in CBs who fit that will offset the loss.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Ask me if we are better or worse in November or December because right now I have insufficient data

[justasportsfan]

I can agree that we are weaker talent wise however, a weaker talent placed in a situation to succeed is better than a very talented player set up to fail.
Assuming McD knows what he's doing, he could make the player better than a Rex Ryan coached player who does not know where he is supposed to be.

This is why I think that right now this team went sideways.

[EDS]

We got better due to Rex and Rob being fired.

The bar is set very low for McDermott and his coaching staff so I agree that that change alone should account for improvement. Personnel wise I think the increased reliance on inexperienced players makes to very difficult to say the roster is better. It would be great if all the rookies and other young players panned out but we all know that won't happen.

[Jan Reimers]

We got WAY better at head coach, we will have our top 2 draft picks from 2016 - Ragland and Lawson - healthy (hopefully), and we added some valuable pieces in the draft and free agency. I don't see our losses as that staggering, so we may actually see some improvement.

[OpIv37]

He has most of it. SAM and MLB bear watching with Alexander and Ragland projected as starters there. Still I'd take it over a 3-4, that suits just a few players.

Moving back to the 4-3 is huge. I knew Rex would ruin the defense going to a 3-4.
Rex is an idiot. He might have done ok if he had gone all in on a 3-4, but he knew breaking up a good D would be a tough sell. He had too much of an ego to run someone else's D so he went "hybrid." I don't need to tell anyone here how it worked out.

[Goobylal]

Rex is an idiot. He might have done ok if he had gone all in on a 3-4, but he knew breaking up a good D would be a tough sell. He had too much of an ego to run someone else's D so he went "hybrid." I don't need to tell anyone here how it worked out.

Yup. But going all-in on the 3-4 would've taken several years. Luckily he didn't pick too many 3-4 players.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh and forgot to mention that Hauschka is also a huge upgrade. I'm hoping the rookie punter Rehkow can be one as well.

[Mahdi]

IMO the defense needs a big run stuffing DT that can free up Dareus.

[streetkings01]

IMO the defense needs a big run stuffing DT that can free up Dareus.Tim Anderson never handed in his retirement papers.......just saying.

[psubills62]

This isn't surprising. We lost a solid amount of talent at WR, CB, LB, and not sure we replaced it with better players. So I'd say our talent level has dipped, though I think the potential is there to strongly improve in the coaching department (hard to make any definitive conclusions without knowing how good McDermott and co. are).

Since Schatz is all about stats on the field, he isn't going to take coaching into consideration. And hard to consider it anyway, given the unknowns about it.

[kishoph]

Yup. But going all-in on the 3-4 would've taken several years. Luckily he didn't pick too many 3-4 players.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh and forgot to mention that Hauschka is also a huge upgrade. I'm hoping the rookie punter Rehkow can be one as well.

Going on Carpenter's last season with the Bills, Hauschka is a big upgrade. Although Carpenter had some good seasons as a Bill, I really believe that Rex destroyed his confidence and Carpenter never recovered. One concern with Hauschka is his PAT's, he missed 1 more kick than Carp last season (6-5) on 10 less attempts (35-45). I remember the angst I felt when Carpenter came out for a PAT, I hoped I wouldn't have to go thru that again.

[Historian]

We got WAY better at head coach,

How can you say that? The guy has never coached at this level before.

If talk won games in the NFL, Gregg Williams would have won a SB here.

Rex and his brother were buffoons, but come on. Is the bar really set that low?

[streetkings01]

How can you say that? The guy has never coached at this level before.

If talk won games in the NFL, Gregg Williams would have won a SB here.

Rex and his brother were buffoons, but come on. Is the bar really set that low? Take out Rex' first 2 seasons and his record is 41-54.

[Goobylal]

Going on Carpenter's last season with the Bills, Hauschka is a big upgrade. Although Carpenter had some good seasons as a Bill, I really believe that Rex destroyed his confidence and Carpenter never recovered. One concern with Hauschka is his PAT's, he missed 1 more kick than Carp last season (6-5) on 10 less attempts (35-45). I remember the angst I felt when Carpenter came out for a PAT, I hoped I wouldn't have to go thru that again.

I believe seven of his 10 missed PAT's past two years were blocked. Not mis-kicked like with Carp.

[swiper]

How can you say that? The guy has never coached at this level before.

If talk won games in the NFL, Gregg Williams would have won a SB here.

Rex and his brother were buffoons, but come on. Is the bar really set that low?

Exactly. The Ryans were buffoons from the get-go, but to say they got "way better" is purely ridiculous. Based on what? McDermott has never been head coach of a team.

[sukie]

Exactly. The Ryans were buffoons from the get-go, but to say they got "way better" is purely ridiculous. Based on what? McDermott has never been head coach of a team.

Anyone that can read a clock and count to eleven consistently is a monumental upgrade. Rex was given a top 4-5 defense... AND F'ED IT UP!!! A dead guy with a counting chicken would not **** up the D.

That D was a lock for a playoff birth... Develop the offense and you'll get in Rex... The D is set. What? Mario is covering tight ends? Rex. WTF did you do?

a 94 year old with a colonostomy bag, a bum leg , fond memories of football without all this passing mum bought jumbo and a knack for calling a time out or two would be an improvement over Rex.


Wally!!!!!

[jamze132]

How can anyone say we got worse????? Rex and Whaley are gone...

[Arm of Harm]

This isn't surprising. We lost a solid amount of talent at WR, CB, LB, and not sure we replaced it with better players. So I'd say our talent level has dipped, though I think the potential is there to strongly improve in the coaching department (hard to make any definitive conclusions without knowing how good McDermott and co. are).

Since Schatz is all about stats on the field, he isn't going to take coaching into consideration. And hard to consider it anyway, given the unknowns about it.


I think that coaching talent and player talent should be evaluated separately. Partly because when you're evaluating the coaching staff at the end of the year, you want to know how much player talent they had to work with. A coaching staff that goes 8-8 with 4-12 level talent did a really good job. A coaching staff which goes 8-8 with Super Bowl level talent did very poorly.

I agree with what you've written about the Bills taking a step down. But there is also the hidden taker of player talent: old age. Guys like Richie Incognito and Kyle Williams aren't getting any younger. And as for McCoy: he'll be 29 years old this season. Time for him to start thinking about Social Security, Bingo, and the Medicare donut hole. Okay, maybe I'm exaggerating a little where McCoy is concerned. But we're very unlikely to see nearly the same kind of season from him in 2017 that we saw in 2016.

[mdcas22]

Going on Carpenter's last season with the Bills, Hauschka is a big upgrade. Although Carpenter had some good seasons as a Bill, I really believe that Rex destroyed his confidence and Carpenter never recovered. One concern with Hauschka is his PAT's, he missed 1 more kick than Carp last season (6-5) on 10 less attempts (35-45). I remember the angst I felt when Carpenter came out for a PAT, I hoped I wouldn't have to go thru that again.

Carpenter is the Buffalo bills all time leader with a 86% field goal made. Hauschka's % is 87% for his career thus far but we must remember he hasn't had to kick in Buffalo so I say a even swap but we do save on the cap.

[poplarbluffman]

agree roster worse...McCoy is entering his 9th season and lost his top backup Gillislee history also tells us the NFL is a coaches league not a players league..hire the right coach wins and playoffs will follow...like Mcdermott much more then Ryan.

[Goobylal]

Carpenter is the Buffalo bills all time leader with a 86% field goal made. Hauschka's % is 87% for his career thus far but we must remember he hasn't had to kick in Buffalo so I say a even swap but we do save on the cap.

Carpenter was 84.4% with the Bills (76/90) and is 84.0% for his career. But his percentage with the Bills dropped from 89.5% to 85.2% to 76.0%. He had to go.

And beyond being a better FG kicker, Hauschka can also KO. Having to keep an extra K for KO's was maddening.

[Goobylal]

agree roster worse...McCoy is entering his 9th season and lost his top backup Gillislee history also tells us the NFL is a coaches league not a players league..hire the right coach wins and playoffs will follow...like Mcdermott much more then Ryan.

The roster is better except at Gilmore's spot but the coaching changes, specifically going back to the 4-3, will help minimize that. As for MG, we were all worried about replacing Freddie's production and then Karlos'. I doubt it's a major issue.