Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

[TigerJ]

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/5/30/15711590/aaron-schatz-picks-bills-as-team-that-worse-this-offseason

I don't have ESPN Insider to read the original article, but the above is an intermediate link, and Chris Trapasso will give you a thumbnail of Schatz argument. Schatz, BTW is the founder of Football outsiders. His point - Buffalo is worse because they lost 2 CBs, 2 WRs and Mike Gillislee. I think that's a pretty shallow argument, personally. Stephon Gilmore is a clear loss, but it is not as big as it might be because Gilmore is a weak tackling man cover corner, who is not a great fit for a zone coverage defense that places a premium on physicality and tackling. The new CB is going to have a learning curve, but he is a better fit. I also expect to see good things from Kevon Seymour this season. He was a pleasant surprise a year ago, and I think we'll see a significant bump in his play. I think by midseason cornerback play will be improved versus 2016.

I also liked Robert Woods, but he was never a key to WR productivity for the Bills. The keys, IMO are QB play and Sammy Watkins' health. Zay Jones may need an adjustment before he's the equal of Woods as a #2, but his athleticism and skill set are potentially superior. I think at the #3 through #5 or 6 spots, Buffalo has better depth now. Listenbee will hopefully be healthy and we can see what he has. Holmes is superior to Hunter, Streater can surprise, and there is more experience.

Gillislee was good for the Bills, but I don't think he is an irreplaceable difference maker. Buffalo has potentially better short yardage backs, a run friendly system, better offensive line play (I think Dawkins is going to surprise), and potentially better D-line play. The main question for me is at weak side linebacker. Hodges looks like the starter, not because he's got a champion pedigree, but because the Bills have nobody better. We'll see.

[cookie G]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

The major holes look to have been filled, with a possible upgrade to the right side of the oline. But they are being filled by rookies, so there is going to be uncertainity.

Im more worried about inevitable scheme changes, "buying in", comeplete teardowns of things that were working, etc.

[Night Train]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

It's OK. He's just expressing an opinion.

The coach, his schemes and the execution is everything. Camp and pre-season need to happen.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

Those big pieces that we lost were known contributors. We know precisely what we will be missing. Replacing them with question marks amid a new coaching staff, system changes, and a lot of youth makes me think we're not as good, either. I don't think it would necessarily translate to a significant difference in wins/losses if we had a similar difficulty level in our schedule compared to last year given the awfulness Ryan created.

[endzone]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

I don't see how they could get worse by losing anyone!

[Cali512]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

Gilmore was picked on by the jets and patriots when we played them. He's not that great

[OpIv37]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

He's right. Who do we have that's better than what we lost? Answer: maybe some draft picks. But let's face it- this team doesn't have a stellar draft history and Whaley wasn't fired til AFTER the draft, not to mention the entire scouting staff and Whaley himself knew they were getting the axe. That's not exactly when people do their best work.


Unless this is the league's best draft of the last 30 years, we are worse than last year.

[Night Train]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

Gilmore played well the last 6 games of 2016 (meaningless at that point) after looking bad the first 10 games.

In a contract year, that didn't bode well in my eyes. 5 years- 65 Mil seems silly but because it's the Pats, it's less of a gamble for them, I suppose. All their moves were very out of character for them, which may be the thinking that their once in a lifetime QB is 40 years old and the window for continued success is getting very short.

[GingerP]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

which may be the thinking that their once in a lifetime QB is 40 years old and the window for continued success is getting very short.

Except... their backup may be the 2nd-best QB in the division.

[kishoph]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

Concerning the roster, on paper it be hard to disagree with him. Fortunately the games not played on paper and hopefully with better coaching and better schemes the Bills can make up for those lost players.

[OpIv37]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

Concerning the roster, on paper it be hard to disagree with him. Fortunately the games not played on paper and hopefully with better coaching and better schemes the Bills can make up for those lost players.

not yet.

The O will probably be pretty similar. The D is switching schemes for what? the 4th time in 6 years? I lost track. And I don't think McDermott has the personnel to do what he wants to do at this point.

[Goobylal]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

not yet.

The O will probably be pretty similar. The D is switching schemes for what? the 4th time in 6 years? I lost track. And I don't think McDermott has the personnel to do what he wants to do at this point.

He has most of it. SAM and MLB bear watching with Alexander and Ragland projected as starters there. Still I'd take it over a 3-4, that suits just a few players.

Moving back to the 4-3 is huge. I knew Rex would ruin the defense going to a 3-4.

[Goobylal]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

And I think that at worst, the O will be the same. However I see upgrades in Jones, Holmes, and Brown at WR, DiMarco at FB, and Dawkins at RT.

[Skooby]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

Worse in the schedule.

[Topas]

Re: Aaron Schatz thinks the Bills got worse this offseason

Worse players: we replaced contributers with question marks. They could turn out to be better. But probably not all and probably not immediately. So worse.
Better coaching. No explanation necessary. Kermit the frog would be in improvement over last year.

Dont know how this will turn out. I hope the schedule is hard enough that McDermott cannot get a lot of wins this year. Lets see.