Nathan will start by game 6, Tyrod experiment will be over

[Skooby]

I would of said game 4 but we are winning our first game, going away by a lot so that buys Tyrod a couple more weeks.

[GreedoII]

I like the Peterman pick a lot. Could be a sleeper down the road for sure.

[jamze132]

Why are you still referring to Tyrod as an "experiment"? He's led a playoff caliber offense in back-to-back seasons now. Why in the **** would they bring in Peterman by Week 6 anyways? If OBD thinks he's the heir-apparent, why would they rush him in?

[SpikedLemonade]

I would of said game 4 but we are winning our first game, going away by a lot so that buys Tyrod a couple more weeks.

I am good with that.

TT offers no play-off hope ever.

He is fundamentally flawed.

[Night Train]

" If I post it, it is destiny ! "

[BertSquirtgum]

Why are you still referring to Tyrod as an "experiment"? He's led a playoff caliber offense in back-to-back seasons now. Why in the **** would they bring in Peterman by Week 6 anyways? If OBD thinks he's the heir-apparent, why would they rush him in?

Are you crazy?

[WagonCircler]

He's led a playoff caliber offense in back-to-back seasons now.

OK, Russ Brandon.

Why stop there?

Tyrod has RUN DEEP.

Tyrod has FELT THE RUSH.

I'm going to go vomit now.

[Luisito23]

I wish it was sooner than that, but the quicker, the better...

Tyrod is straight ass...:moon:

[Albany,n.y.]

Odds are Peterman will go down in Bills history alongside Brian Brohm, Jeff Tuel, Levi Brown etc. All longshot QBs the Bills got on the cheap who some fans saw as the next savior because he wasn't the guy who was the starter.

Actually, if the season starts off badly (after week 1) I'd love to see Peterman start ASAP so that we can give the Jets, Cleveland & SF a run for their money and get a shot at drafting a real franchise QB and not have to hope a 5th round guy will miraculously turn into the next Tom Brady.

[Skooby]

Odds are Peterman will go down in Bills history alongside Brian Brohm, Jeff Tuel, Levi Brown etc. All longshot QBs the Bills got on the cheap who some fans saw as the next savior because he wasn't the guy who was the starter.

Actually, if the season starts off badly (after week 1) I'd love to see Peterman start ASAP so that we can give the Jets, Cleveland & SF a run for their money and get a shot at drafting a real franchise QB and not have to hope a 5th round guy will miraculously turn into the next Tom Brady.
Nathan is a lot better than most people know, like I said by week 6 (which means it could be sooner).

[cookie G]

OK, Russ Brandon.

Why stop there?

Tyrod has RUN DEEP.

Tyrod has FELT THE RUSH.

I'm going to go vomit now.

Feel free to vomit all you'd like, but he's right.

Only 2 AFC playoff teams scored more than the Bills last year, NE and Oakland. And Oakland scored 17 points more over teh course of the season, or about 1 pt. per game.

You'd have to go back to the Flutie era to find an offense that put up consistently good numbers in scoring (11 games scoring 24 pts or more.)

Those numbers are the benchmark of the new OC and McDeadpool. They've gotten the offense back essentially intact. In a few areas they might have improved.

If he brings the O back to the typical Bills O of scoring 300-330 pts, Dennison will have failed.

[bdutton]

Are you crazy?
We make the playoffs with Tyrod if Rex didn't **** up the defense.

[Bill Cody]

We make the playoffs with Tyrod if Rex didn't **** up the defense.

Even assuming that were true I have little confidence of winning said playoff game with TT under center unless the D improved to say 2000 Ravens level

[JoeMama]

We make the playoffs with Tyrod if Rex didn't **** up the defense.

tru dat.

We definitely make the playoffs if Uday and Qusay Ryan didn't **** up the defense so badly.

If Anthony Lynn was our OC and Jim Schwartz our DC (playing a 4-3 like we should have) the playoff drought would have ended in 2016.

[TigerJ]

Predictions are like clumps of mud thrown at a wall. A few of them may stick. Most will eventually fall off. If you're the one who is throwing them, all you can do is hope people forget the ones that fall off.

[Albany,n.y.]

Nathan is a lot better than most people know, like I said by week 6 (which means it could be sooner).

Sorry, I can't resist questioning your QB scouting abilities. For the record, I'll admit I'm no better, having once declared Trent Edwards the next Joe Montana.

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/219968-It-s-nice-to-have-3-QB-s-that-might-start-versus-3-QB-s-that-can-t-start

Mitch: It's nice to have 3 QB's that might start versus 3 QB's that can't start

I'm sitting here thinking, It's nice to have 3 QB's that might start versus 3 QB's that can't start. Can you even compare the possibilities of EJ / Kolb / Tuel to anyone since Drew Bledsoe ? We're heading the right way at a very key spot, just thought we need to remember how fortunate to have things completely turn around.

[Skooby]

Sorry, I can't resist questioning your QB scouting abilities. For the record, I'll admit I'm no better, having once declared Trent Edwards the next Joe Montana.

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/219968-It-s-nice-to-have-3-QB-s-that-might-start-versus-3-QB-s-that-can-t-start

Mitch: It's nice to have 3 QB's that might start versus 3 QB's that can't start

I'm sitting here thinking, It's nice to have 3 QB's that might start versus 3 QB's that can't start. Can you even compare the possibilities of EJ / Kolb / Tuel to anyone since Drew Bledsoe ? We're heading the right way at a very key spot, just thought we need to remember how fortunate to have things completely turn around.

I agree that things look better on the offensive side of the ball but please realize that there's a certain mojo needed to win big games and comeback when needed. Remember when Jim Kelly would get the ball on a last drive after not playing so well and you'd be holy crap we are driving and going to win. Is that like the last time you really believed that to be the case ?? Me too. Which means we don't have the right person yet and average QB's get you a 9-7 / 8-8 / 7-9 record.

I hope for better and a chance to win it all, getting there is a nice step but not the goal.

[Forward_Lateral]

I'd bet that Peterman will earn the job in preseason.

I don't think Taylor has the confidence of this new regime.

[Forward_Lateral]

Tyrod was the QB of an offense that ran the snot out of the ball.

It was not a playoff caliber offense, because they didn't even sniff the playoffs.

[BertSquirtgum]

Feel free to vomit all you'd like, but he's right.

Only 2 AFC playoff teams scored more than the Bills last year, NE and Oakland. And Oakland scored 17 points more over teh course of the season, or about 1 pt. per game.

You'd have to go back to the Flutie era to find an offense that put up consistently good numbers in scoring (11 games scoring 24 pts or more.)

Those numbers are the benchmark of the new OC and McDeadpool. They've gotten the offense back essentially intact. In a few areas they might have improved.

If he brings the O back to the typical Bills O of scoring 300-330 pts, Dennison will have failed.

Thanks to Lesean Mccoy. Not Tyrod Taylor

[BertSquirtgum]

We make the playoffs with Tyrod if Rex didn't **** up the defense.
If my aunt had a penis she would be my uncle.

[WagonCircler]

Feel free to vomit all you'd like, but he's right.

Only 2 AFC playoff teams scored more than the Bills last year, NE and Oakland. And Oakland scored 17 points more over teh course of the season, or about 1 pt. per game.

You'd have to go back to the Flutie era to find an offense that put up consistently good numbers in scoring (11 games scoring 24 pts or more.)

Those numbers are the benchmark of the new OC and McDeadpool. They've gotten the offense back essentially intact. In a few areas they might have improved.

If he brings the O back to the typical Bills O of scoring 300-330 pts, Dennison will have failed.

My vomiting was about the canned marketing catch phrases.

But also, Tyrod is not a "playoff caliber" QB. He is the perfect emblem of the the mediocrity we've been lulled into accepting.

[Arm of Harm]

Feel free to vomit all you'd like, but he's right.

Only 2 AFC playoff teams scored more than the Bills last year, NE and Oakland. And Oakland scored 17 points more over teh course of the season, or about 1 pt. per game.

You'd have to go back to the Flutie era to find an offense that put up consistently good numbers in scoring (11 games scoring 24 pts or more.)

Those numbers are the benchmark of the new OC and McDeadpool. They've gotten the offense back essentially intact. In a few areas they might have improved.

If he brings the O back to the typical Bills O of scoring 300-330 pts, Dennison will have failed.


Last season the Bills ranked 30th (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1) in passing yards, with 3,036. The team with the most passing yards, the New Orleans Saints, had almost double that total; with 5,074 passing yards.

On the other hand, we had the most rushing yards in the league, with 2,630. The team with the least rushing yards, the Minnesota Vikings, had less than half that total; with 1,205 rushing yards.

If our team did a reasonably good job of scoring, that might have had a little more to do with our #1 ranked rushing game than with our #30 ranked passing game.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Tyrod Taylor has thrown for under 200 yards more often than he's thrown for over 200 yards. He can be replaced without having the offense come crumbling to a halt.

Our running game is what can not be replaced. 29 rushing touchdowns, league-leading 77 rushing plays of 10 yards or more, 5.3 yards per carry. Maybe if we had a QB who specializes in throwing the football our running game could get even better, it would at least compensate for Tyrod's magnificent scrambles when his primary target isn't open after 1.5 seconds.

Add Tyrod's rushing yards to his passing total and shoots up to the elite rank of 20th in both 2015 and 2016, with his yardage totaling EXACTLY 3,603 yards in both seasons. I don't know where we can find another quarterback to put up those rocket high numbers.

[Mr. Miyagi]

If my aunt had a penis she would be my uncle.
Actually in this day and age, your statement doesn't even apply 100% of the time.

[feldspar]

Last season the Bills ranked 30th (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1) in passing yards, with 3,036. The team with the most passing yards, the New Orleans Saints, had almost double that total; with 5,074 passing yards.

On the other hand, we had the most rushing yards in the league, with 2,630. The team with the least rushing yards, the Minnesota Vikings, had less than half that total; with 1,205 rushing yards.

If our team did a reasonably good job of scoring, that might have had a little more to do with our #1 ranked rushing game than with our #30 ranked passing game.

Lol at stats.

Don't get me started.

[ticatfan]

I am good with that.

TT offers no play-off hope ever.

He is fundamentally flawed.Give the kid some time, he will be fine.

[Arm of Harm]

Lol at stats.

Don't get me started.


In what way do you think stats are understating or overstating Tyrod's actual level of effectiveness as a passer?

Because if you ask me, I see a QB who's excellent at running the ball, and also good with the deep ball. I don't see a whole lot else beyond those two strengths. So sure, you'll get a long bomb or two a game, and that's always nice. You'll get dump-offs. Some of those dump-offs will turn into decent gains, depending on how well the target runs after the catch. And you'll get the occasional throw that doesn't fall into one of those two categories.

Put the ball into the hands of an elite QB with two minutes left, and that QB will have the ability to drive down the field; picking up yardage in short to intermediate chunks. Tyrod doesn't give you that. Never has, and probably never will. The Bills aren't a good come from behind team, because we don't have a QB who can drive down the field the way you'd expect from a Derek Carr.

Our #1 rank in running and #30 rank in passing correctly indicates we're using an outstanding running game to compensate for a very lackluster passing game. The primary cause of the latter is lack of good QB play; and specifically our QB's inability to see or take advantage of many passing opportunities.

[feldspar]

In what way do you think stats are understating or overstating Tyrod's actual level of effectiveness as a passer?

Because if you ask me, I see a QB who's excellent at running the ball, and also good with the deep ball. I don't see a whole lot else beyond those two strengths. So sure, you'll get a long bomb or two a game, and that's always nice. You'll get dump-offs. Some of those dump-offs will turn into decent gains, depending on how well the target runs after the catch. And you'll get the occasional throw that doesn't fall into one of those two categories.

Put the ball into the hands of an elite QB with two minutes left, and that QB will have the ability to drive down the field; picking up yardage in short to intermediate chunks. Tyrod doesn't give you that. Never has, and probably never will. The Bills aren't a good come from behind team, because we don't have a QB who can drive down the field the way you'd expect from a Derek Carr.

Tyrod has played well enough for the Bills to get the playoffs. The problem has been defense, really. This offense has protected the ball and scored points.

I'm talking about stats.

Stats are ridiculous to go by a lot of the time. Here is one: the Chargers had the #1 offense AND the #1 defense in 2010...guess what? They did not even make the playoffs that year. Tell me why...

[Skooby]

Tyrod has played well enough for the Bills to get the playoffs. The problem has been defense, really. This offense has protected the ball and scored points.

I'm talking about stats.

Stats are ridiculous to go by a lot of the time. Here is one: the Chargers had the #1 offense AND the #1 defense in 2010...guess what? They did not even make the playoffs that year. Tell me why...
The Bills being 30th in passing yards shows Tyrod isn't an NFL starter yet nor improving yet he's good enough in your mind. Rookies / Young players who come in and lead teams to successful offensive campaigns don't finish 25th in passing yards (like ever). Here's a list of total passing yards by player:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

[cookie G]

Last season the Bills ranked 30th (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1) in passing yards, with 3,036. The team with the most passing yards, the New Orleans Saints, had almost double that total; with 5,074 passing yards.

So wrong on so many levels.

1) I don't know anyone comparing TT to Drew Brees...a future HOF'er (who we could have had if we didn't drafted a CB in 2001)

2) Are you expecting Nathan Peterman to compete with Drew Brees' stats?


3) DB had 673 pass attempts last year as opposed to TT's 436. So yeah, I'd expect him to have a lot less yards than DB. But if you'd like to project...

TT had a y/a of 6.9 last year. Multiply that to the 237 fewer attempts that he had and you can add 1635 yards. Combine with the 3000 yards he threw and the number is now up to 4600 yards, or 4th in the league.

OR

4) Limit DB's pass attempts to 436, like Taylor had. Then multiply those attempts byhis y/a, which was 7.7 last year.

Limit him to 436 attempts and he has 3357 passing yards...

That puts him at 25th in the league...one spot ahead of..um....Tyrod Taylor.

OMG DREW BREES STINKS!!!!!!!!

Trying to argue gross yardage without taking into account pass attempts is ...pretty damn lame. Embarassingly so.



On the other hand, we had the most rushing yards in the league, with 2,630. The team with the least rushing yards, the Minnesota Vikings, had less than half that total; with 1,205 rushing yards.

If our team did a reasonably good job of scoring, that might have had a little more to do with our #1 ranked rushing game than with our #30 ranked passing game.

Ya think the running game had something to do with our offense?

This wasn't your typical ground and pound offense, nor was it some ill fated attempt at a read option offense, ala Marrone/Hackett. (they rarely ran a read option.)

It had far too many TD's and far too many big runs (led the league by far in 20+ yard runs) to be a 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense.

But people need to understand WHY it was as good as it was.

It had a combination of factors that made it as good as it was.

It had some strong run blocking, especially on the left side;
It used multiple formations, including a number of unbalanced formations;
And it used a qb who was a threat to run and gain, not 5 yards, but 30 yards.

A good contrast is the way Hackett tried to run his read option game and the running game with TT.

Hackett tried to run the read option with EJ Manuel..figuring, he's an athletic QB, and that's what you need.
the problem is...EJ never liked to run the ball. He could have the whole outside open, but he'd still hand the ball off.

So the "read" and "option" parts of the read option weren't there.
No one was fooled;
No LB's or DB's were frozen;
Nothing was off balance,
Every running play was essentially a dive or blast play up the middle.

Of course it was worse for the running game with Kyle Orton, who was a 0 threat to run. Hackett was completely lost, because he only knew about 3 running plays.

They gained yards, but only because they ran the ball so much.

The running game with TT at QB is a different animal.

Because he was a threat to run, defenders needed to account for him. LB's were frozen, DB's had to account for him..the play calling was much more imaginative.

And when the LB's or DB's are frozen, holes open up in the second and third levels.

There's a reason the Bills' running game produced 7 20+ yard runs in 2014 and 19 in 2015 ..and 27 last year.

TT opened up as many holes in the 2nd and third levels as blocking schemes did.

The thought that if you take TT and his 600 rushing yards out of the equation and you'll still have 2000 yards and a bunch of big plays is ludicrous.

Its right up there with zeroing in on only passing yards and ignoring pass attempts.

[cookie G]

My vomiting was about the canned marketing catch phrases.

The One Vision marketing video (or whatever its called, brought up some bile ot my throat.

TBH, when you're losing..all the catch phrases ring hollow.

Lots of the Marvisms would have been pretty annoying if they never went to the playoffs.



But also, Tyrod is not a "playoff caliber" QB. He is the perfect emblem of the the mediocrity we've been lulled into accepting.

I never said he was a playoff QB. I think the difference is that this offense, with him in it...is playoff caliber.

And if you put in a pure pocket passer, with the way pass pro was on the right side last year, it probably would have been worse.

Does that mean you don't try to improve the position?

You won't hear that from me. Last year I advocated taking Paxton Lynch, this year I would have drafted Mahommes. And there is no guarantee either of them makes it.

But...people thought it was better to have a one armed DE last year and a CB this year.

And this year, people are now pinning their hopes on a bottom of the 5th pick at QB.

I'd love for Peterman to be the steal of the decade and flourish..

...but that's not something I'd pin my hopes or the hopes of my offense to.

[feldspar]

The Bills being 30th in passing yards shows Tyrod isn't an NFL starter yet nor improving yet he's good enough in your mind. Rookies / Young players who come in and lead teams to successful offensive campaigns don't finish 25th in passing yards (like ever). Here's a list of total passing yards by player:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

Just think "Barnaby Jones," fella.

That's all I can say...

[jamze132]

OK, Russ Brandon.

Why stop there?

Tyrod has RUN DEEP.

Tyrod has FELT THE RUSH.

I'm going to go vomit now.

Led the league in rushing

5th in AFC in total points scored

I'f we had any resemblance of a defense we would have made it.

[SpikedLemonade]

If my aunt had a penis she would be my uncle.
I thought your aunt and uncle were brother and sister.

[SpikedLemonade]

........

And this year, people are now pinning their hopes on a bottom of the 5th pick at QB.

I'd love for Peterman to be the steal of the decade and flourish..

...but that's not something I'd pin my hopes or the hopes of my offense to.

My hope is pinned on the assumption that if our just drafted QB is starting early this season that it means we are aiming for a 3-13 season.

That would be a 2nd or 3rd Overall draft pick that we could combine with the 1st round pick we got from KC to draft a true franchise QB in 2018.

[Turf]

I kind of hope the start a thread experiment will be over, among other unrelated things.

[Arm of Harm]

So wrong on so many levels.
1) I don't know anyone comparing TT to Drew Brees...a future HOF'er (who we could have had if we didn't drafted a CB in 2001)
2) Are you expecting Nathan Peterman to compete with Drew Brees' stats?
3) DB had 673 pass attempts last year as opposed to TT's 436. So yeah, I'd expect him to have a lot less yards than DB. But if you'd like to project...
TT had a y/a of 6.9 last year. Multiply that to the 237 fewer attempts that he had and you can add 1635 yards. Combine with the 3000 yards he threw and the number is now up to 4600 yards, or 4th in the league.
OR
4) Limit DB's pass attempts to 436, like Taylor had. Then multiply those attempts byhis y/a, which was 7.7 last year.
Limit him to 436 attempts and he has 3357 passing yards...
That puts him at 25th in the league...one spot ahead of..um....Tyrod Taylor.
OMG DREW BREES STINKS!!!!!!!!
Trying to argue gross yardage without taking into account pass attempts is ...pretty damn lame. Embarassingly so.


You make an interesting argument about yards per pass attempt. But the situation is not as simple as you seem to think, as I will illustrate.

I'll start off by saying I have nothing against Matt Schaub (http://www.nfl.com/player/mattschaub/2505982/profile). I think more highly of his quarterbacking than do most people. In his prime he was a reasonably solid starter. But he was no Tom Brady (http://www.nfl.com/player/tombrady/2504211/profile).

There was a seven year stretch during which Schaub's yards per attempt never dipped below 7.6. He exceeded 8.0 yards per attempt three times in those seven years. Schaub's overall career average is 7.6 yards per attempt. Brady's career average is 7.5. Does this mean that Matt Schaub is a slightly better QB than Tom Brady? No, of course it does not mean that! What it means is that Schaub's yards per attempt overstates his level of play, because he operated a run-oriented offense. Whereas Brady's yards per attempt understates his level of play, because he operates a pass-oriented offense.

How does this inflation/deflation occur? Normally in a run-oriented offense, a big part of a QB's responsibility is the long ball. The theory is that if they stack the box you burn them with the long ball. And if they guard against the long ball you grind them down with the run. This basic way of thinking has been around a while, and was the NFL norm back in the '70s. Deep passes can easily do wonders for a QB's yards per attempt. Suppose for example that a QB goes 2-for-4 on his long ball attempts, for 100 passing yards. On those four pass attempts, he's averaging an insanely high 25 yards per attempt. His overall yards per attempt for the game should also look pretty good, assuming he doesn't dilute those four pass attempts with too many other attempts.

In a pass-oriented offense the passing game partially takes the place of the running game. You can win a lot of football games that way, such as the four Super Bowl wins by Joe Montana, and the five Super Bowl wins by Brady. But because you're passing the ball so often, the long balls you complete won't help your yards per attempt nearly as much as they'd help the yards per attempt for the QB in a run-oriented offense. Long balls make up a much smaller percentage of Brady's overall passing attempts than they do for a run offense QB like Matt Schaub.

And that's where total passing yards come in. Matt Schaub has just three seasons where he threw for 3500 yards or better. Tom Brady has 14 such seasons. Tyrod Taylor has zero. (Though in fairness he's only had two seasons as starter; compared to seven for Schaub and 15 for Brady.)

Let's say you have a run-oriented offense and you want to turn it into more of a pass-oriented offense. That transformation will mean that a higher percentage of your throws will be to short-to-intermediate targets. A QB's accuracy--especially at throwing to targets moving horizontally--will be at a premium. So too will be the QB's ability to quickly make multiple reads. Tyrod Taylor has not given us reason to beleive he'd be good at those things. The best way to use a QB like that is the way we used him last year: as a running QB in a run-oriented offense.

There are certainly worse offenses than the one we ran last year. On the other hand, it's not like an offense such as that is going to carry anyone to a Super Bowl win. If you want a Super Bowl ring with that kind of offense, you need a defense like the one the Ravens had in 2000, or like the Bucs had in 2002. The Bills did not have a defense like that even when Schwartz was our defensive coordinator. Given that we've lost 8 of the 11 defensive starters we had under Schwartz, we are a long way away from building a defense like that now.

I hope that we use a top 10 pick on a QB in next year's draft. I also hope that QB becomes the successor to Jim Kelly. The kind of guy who can lead us to a Super Bowl win. If this QB could be roughly equal to Derek Carr, I'd be perfectly happy. Once you have a QB like that you can build around him; giving yourself many years' worth of opportunities to potentially win a Super Bowl. Some years you'll do better than others. But you only need one really good year to come away with a Lombardi Trophy.

[HHURRICANE]

I would of said game 4 but we are winning our first game, going away by a lot so that buys Tyrod a couple more weeks.

You basically stole my thread and inserted week 6...lol!

[Skooby]

You basically stole my thread and inserted week 6...lol!
LOL, It just writes itself.

[Arm of Harm]

The running game with TT at QB is a different animal.

Because he was a threat to run, defenders needed to account for him. LB's were frozen, DB's had to account for him..the play calling was much more imaginative.

And when the LB's or DB's are frozen, holes open up in the second and third levels.


I didn't address the above in my earlier post, because that post was too short. :) So I'll address it here instead.

Suppose Tyrod Taylor hands the ball off to LeSean McCoy. At that point, the defenders no longer have to worry about how fast Taylor is or isn't. Taylor isn't the one with the football. Defenders should be doing their best to flow to McCoy.

You could point out that all this happens after the QB has handed the ball off to McCoy. Before the handoff, the defense doesn't know whether Tyrod is going to throw, hand off, or run the ball himself. All that is true. But, before the handoff, the defense knows that a running play is likely. It behooves them to position themselves to stop guys from running the ball out of the backfield. They might not know whether it's Tyrod or McCoy running the ball out of the backfield, but either way they need to be in position to stop the run.

Maybe the defense assigns a LB to spy on Tyrod. But in order to be able to hand the ball off to McCoy, Tyrod has to be right next to McCoy. (Unless Tyrod pitches the ball to McCoy.) This would tend to bring the spy closer to McCoy as well.

While Tyrod deserves credit for his own rushing yards, it's difficult to see what he does to boost the yards per carry of McCoy or some other RB. I would argue that Tyrod's threat to run the ball does far more to boost the passing game than the running game. On a passing play defenders cannot fully commit to pass defense, because they know they must guard against the threat of Tyrod's legs. Also, Tyrod can buy time with his legs, thereby giving his targets more time to get open before the pass rush arrives. If Tyrod were ever to lose his mobility advantage, his passing numbers would almost certainly decline, and decline considerably.

[Forward_Lateral]

You can count on 1 finger the number of Superbowl winning teams in the last 25 years that didn't have a probowl caliber PASSING QB.

[cookie G]

You make an interesting argument about yards per pass attempt. But the situation is not as simple as you seem to think, as I will illustrate.

I'll start off by saying I have nothing against Matt Schaub (http://www.nfl.com/player/mattschaub/2505982/profile). I think more highly of his quarterbacking than do most people. In his prime he was a reasonably solid starter. But he was no Tom Brady (http://www.nfl.com/player/tombrady/2504211/profile).

There was a seven year stretch during which Schaub's yards per attempt never dipped below 7.6. He exceeded 8.0 yards per attempt three times in those seven years. Schaub's overall career average is 7.6 yards per attempt. Brady's career average is 7.5. Does this mean that Matt Schaub is a slightly better QB than Tom Brady? No, of course it does not mean that! What it means is that Schaub's yards per attempt overstates his level of play, because he operated a run-oriented offense. Whereas Brady's yards per attempt understates his level of play, because he operates a pass-oriented offense.

How does this inflation/deflation occur? Normally in a run-oriented offense, a big part of a QB's responsibility is the long ball. The theory is that if they stack the box you burn them with the long ball. And if they guard against the long ball you grind them down with the run. This basic way of thinking has been around a while, and was the NFL norm back in the '70s. Deep passes can easily do wonders for a QB's yards per attempt. Suppose for example that a QB goes 2-for-4 on his long ball attempts, for 100 passing yards. On those four pass attempts, he's averaging an insanely high 25 yards per attempt. His overall yards per attempt for the game should also look pretty good, assuming he doesn't dilute those four pass attempts with too many other attempts.

In a pass-oriented offense the passing game partially takes the place of the running game. You can win a lot of football games that way, such as the four Super Bowl wins by Joe Montana, and the five Super Bowl wins by Brady. But because you're passing the ball so often, the long balls you complete won't help your yards per attempt nearly as much as they'd help the yards per attempt for the QB in a run-oriented offense. Long balls make up a much smaller percentage of Brady's overall passing attempts than they do for a run offense QB like Matt Schaub.

And that's where total passing yards come in. Matt Schaub has just three seasons where he threw for 3500 yards or better. Tom Brady has 14 such seasons. Tyrod Taylor has zero. (Though in fairness he's only had two seasons as starter; compared to seven for Schaub and 15 for Brady.)

Let's say you have a run-oriented offense and you want to turn it into more of a pass-oriented offense. That transformation will mean that a higher percentage of your throws will be to short-to-intermediate targets. A QB's accuracy--especially at throwing to targets moving horizontally--will be at a premium. So too will be the QB's ability to quickly make multiple reads. Tyrod Taylor has not given us reason to beleive he'd be good at those things. The best way to use a QB like that is the way we used him last year: as a running QB in a run-oriented offense.

No one said ypa is the end all of a passer..my point was that you can't simply look at passing yards in a vaccuum.

This offense scored more points than it has in a long while;
It scores more points consistently than in a long while;
Its redzone percentage is better than it has been in a long while.

I think some people would like to be like Jacksonville...throw for a half million yards but score less.




There are certainly worse offenses than the one we ran last year. On the other hand, it's not like an offense such as that is going to carry anyone to a Super Bowl win. If you want a Super Bowl ring with that kind of offense, you need a defense like the one the Ravens had in 2000, or like the Bucs had in 2002. The Bills did not have a defense like that even when Schwartz was our defensive coordinator. Given that we've lost 8 of the 11 defensive starters we had under Schwartz, we are a long way away from building a defense like that now.

The Bills scored 399 points last year.

Since the Ravens won the 2000 SB, 9 of the past 16 SB winners scored less points than that.

in the past 10 years, 6 of the past SB winners scored less. Seattle, who was a hand off away from beating the Pats, scored about the same. The year they won, they scored 417 pts. More often than not, in recent years, the SB winner had an offense on par with Buffalo's last year.

You're either underestimating what last year's offense did... or way overrating some of the past SB offenses.
Either way..your theory is off...way off.



I hope that we use a top 10 pick on a QB in next year's draft. I also hope that QB becomes the successor to Jim Kelly. The kind of guy who can lead us to a Super Bowl win. If this QB could be roughly equal to Derek Carr, I'd be perfectly happy. Once you have a QB like that you can build around him; giving yourself many years' worth of opportunities to potentially win a Super Bowl. Some years you'll do better than others. But you only need one really good year to come away with a Lombardi Trophy.

Well, its Buffalo. Kyle Williams will retire next year and the 2 1st round choices will go towards a:

1) a DT to replace him; and
2) some "can't miss" safety from the SEC, because that's what you need in this offense, a dominant safety, or something like that.

And the people who cheered those picks will be the ones complaining the most about not having a QB.

and if and when one of the passed over QB's makes it...they'll say, "pfft, hindsight is 20-20".

Its the way it is with this team...has been since the playoff drought began.

[cookie G]

I didn't address the above in my earlier post, because that post was too short. :) So I'll address it here instead.

Suppose Tyrod Taylor hands the ball off to LeSean McCoy. At that point, the defenders no longer have to worry about how fast Taylor is or isn't. Taylor isn't the one with the football. Defenders should be doing their best to flow to McCoy.

You could point out that all this happens after the QB has handed the ball off to McCoy. Before the handoff, the defense doesn't know whether Tyrod is going to throw, hand off, or run the ball himself. All that is true. But, before the handoff, the defense knows that a running play is likely. It behooves them to position themselves to stop guys from running the ball out of the backfield. They might not know whether it's Tyrod or McCoy running the ball out of the backfield, but either way they need to be in position to stop the run.

Maybe the defense assigns a LB to spy on Tyrod. But in order to be able to hand the ball off to McCoy, Tyrod has to be right next to McCoy. (Unless Tyrod pitches the ball to McCoy.) This would tend to bring the spy closer to McCoy as well.

While Tyrod deserves credit for his own rushing yards, it's difficult to see what he does to boost the yards per carry of McCoy or some other RB. I would argue that Tyrod's threat to run the ball does far more to boost the passing game than the running game. On a passing play defenders cannot fully commit to pass defense, because they know they must guard against the threat of Tyrod's legs. Also, Tyrod can buy time with his legs, thereby giving his targets more time to get open before the pass rush arrives. If Tyrod were ever to lose his mobility advantage, his passing numbers would almost certainly decline, and decline considerably.

you're kidding right?

That is the whole purpose of fakes, play action, options, unbalanced formations and every other play that uses some form of misdirection or overloading

In plays like that, its a matter of positioning. The longer you can hold a defender in one position, the less likelihood he'll be able to make it to the spot where the ball is going.

It isn't much different than a QB looking off a safety or a play action pass freezing LBs.

its a part of playcalling.

Well, some never get it...even OC's..see Nate Hackett as an example.

[kishoph]

Last season the Bills ranked 30th (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1) in passing yards, with 3,036. The team with the most passing yards, the New Orleans Saints, had almost double that total; with 5,074 passing yards.

On the other hand, we had the most rushing yards in the league, with 2,630. The team with the least rushing yards, the Minnesota Vikings, had less than half that total; with 1,205 rushing yards.

If our team did a reasonably good job of scoring, that might have had a little more to do with our #1 ranked rushing game than with our #30 ranked passing game.

The Bills were the only team in the league last season that had more rushing TD's than passing TD's, even without Taylor's 6 rushing TD'd the Bills still scored 5 more TD's rushing the ball. The success of the Bills offense was based on it's rushing game, namely LeSean McCoy, with an assist from Mike Gillislee. Some could argue that Taylor was a big part of the Bills rushing offense, but even if you remove all of Taylor's rushing stats and the Bills still would of had the #2 rushing offense in the league.
Your not going to go very far in this league with a bottom ranked passing game, even with a LeSean McCoy. Houston had some success last season with a very poor passing game, but having the #1 defense and a favorable schedule helped.

[Arm of Harm]

No one said ypa is the end all of a passer..my point was that you can't simply look at passing yards in a vaccuum.

This offense scored more points than it has in a long while;
It scores more points consistently than in a long while;
Its redzone percentage is better than it has been in a long while.

I think some people would like to be like Jacksonville...throw for a half million yards but score less.




The Bills scored 399 points last year.

Since the Ravens won the 2000 SB, 9 of the past 16 SB winners scored less points than that.

in the past 10 years, 6 of the past SB winners scored less. Seattle, who was a hand off away from beating the Pats, scored about the same. The year they won, they scored 417 pts. More often than not, in recent years, the SB winner had an offense on par with Buffalo's last year.

You're either underestimating what last year's offense did... or way overrating some of the past SB offenses.
Either way..your theory is off...way off.



Well, its Buffalo. Kyle Williams will retire next year and the 2 1st round choices will go towards a:

1) a DT to replace him; and
2) some "can't miss" safety from the SEC, because that's what you need in this offense, a dominant safety, or something like that.

And the people who cheered those picks will be the ones complaining the most about not having a QB.

and if and when one of the passed over QB's makes it...they'll say, "pfft, hindsight is 20-20".

Its the way it is with this team...has been since the playoff drought began.

To address your point about offensive scoring: we had 29 rushing touchdowns (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=SCORING&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go) last season, more than any other team. The New York Giants had the fewest rushing touchdowns, with 6. Even the team with the second-most rushing touchdowns--the Dallas Cowboys--had 5 fewer rushing TDs than us.

We also had 17 passing touchdowns. The team with the fewest passing touchdowns was the Los Angeles Rams, with 14. The best team in this category was the Green Bay Packers, with 40. If our overall offense is doing a reasonably good job at scoring, it's because our absolutely phenomenal running game is helping to balance out a lackluster passing attack.

In order to justify Tyrod Taylor as some sort of long-term "solution" at QB, it's necessary to argue that Tyrod's contribution to the running game is far more substantial than his own rushing yardage total would suggest. You have made the argument that Tyrod's mobility boosts the yards per carry for McCoy and for our other running backs. While I'm still listening with (I hope) an open mind, you have yet to convince me that Tyrod's mobility does provide a significant boost to our RBs' yards per carry.

"The 2 1st round choices will go towards a: 1) a DT to replace him; and 2) some 'can't miss' safety from the SEC."

The above would certainly be consistent with how the Bills operated over the past 20 years. But this team is no longer being run by idiots. There is now a significant chance that both those picks will be used to acquire a QB. Which is exactly what the Bills should do.