Decent write-up of Losers and Winners of today's trades

[Pinkerton Security]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20313763/winners-losers-buffalo-bills-los-angeles-rams-philadelphia-eagles-mega-trades-sammy-watkins-jordan-matthews-ronald-darby

Here's my basic gist of these deals:
What's really crucial, though, are those extra draft picks. As projected by FPI and using Stuart's chart (http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-pick-value-calculator/), the Bills trading their sixth-round pick for Los Angeles' second-rounder and Philadelphia's third-round pick to trade Rams pick (37, fifth-lowest FPI projection) and Eagles pick (80, 16th-lowest FPI projection) for pick 190 (the Bills have the sixth-lowest projection and that was the sixth-lowest pick of the sixth round, obviously the exact pick will pend specific compensatory selections) is roughly the equivalent of acquiring the 16th overall pick in a typical draft (17.1 points, closest to value of 16th pick, 16.9 points).
That gives the Bills what essentially amounts to three first-round picks in the 2018 draft, given that they'll have their own pick and Kansas City's selection from the Patrick Mahomes II (http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3139477/patrick-mahomes-ii) trade. They can add a third-round compensatory pick for Stephon Gilmore (http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/14942/stephon-gilmore) if they cut three players (https://overthecap.com/2018-compensatory-draft-picks-update-592017/) from the group of DiMarco, Vladimir Ducasse (http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/13273/vladimir-ducasse), Ryan Harris, Andre Holmes (http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/14403/andre-holmes) and Steven Hauschka before Week 10, a move I would strongly encourage. Draft picks alone aren't a solution, but the best way to build a sustainably effective team isn't to trade up for a stud wide receiver or an inside linebacker, as the Bills did by sending multiple picks to acquire Reggie Ragland (http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/2979855/reggie-ragland) last season. It's to acquire draft picks and build a core of cheap, effective talent. As the Bills try to chase the juggernaut Patriots, they're wisely taking a page out of Bill Belichick's book (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/bill-belichick-nfl-draft-new-england-patriots/).

[Generalissimus Gibby]

This season will suck, but then again I have had them at 4-12 since I first saw the schedule so I knew it would be brutal, but if we don't have anything in 2018 that will be utterly inexcusable.

[Joe Fo Sho]

We could have 4 picks in the top 40 of next years draft. I'm not mad about it.

[Night Train]

We are doing it the Belichick way. Good !

[OpIv37]

Well maybe we can enjoy football in 13 months.

[JoeMama]

It's disappointing to be put in a situation where I have to write off the Bills one preseason game deep.

I wasn't expecting playoffs but I was thought good coaching could do a better job with our roster than Rex Ryan for sure.

Trading the present for an uncertain future never sits well with me. We've been through the "rebuilding" process with our previous four GMs too.

Rebuilding is a really inappropriate euphemism for it. No one should call it "rebuilding" until we know for a certainty the team has actually been "rebuilt." Which requires hindsight.

[Ed]

Well maybe we can enjoy football in 13 months.
I don't know if watching a rookie qb struggle and go through growing pains can be considered enjoyable, but 25 or 37 months from now might have some promise.

[kgun12]

Well maybe we can enjoy football in 13 months.

I don't think that's possible on this board! :roflmao:

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

my guess is Shady is next..... i don't know. just a thought.

[Night Train]

my guess is Shady is next..... i don't know. just a thought.

Doubt that. He's our whole O this year. Run the ball and play tight D is the plan this year.

[Thurmal]

For these trades to be considered successful, it all really hinges on:

A) Will Matthews be able to fill Sammy's shoes, and
B) If he does, can we resign him?

[sukie]

It's disappointing to be put in a situation where I have to write off the Bills one preseason game deep.

I wasn't expecting playoffs but I was thought good coaching could do a better job with our roster than Rex Ryan for sure.

Trading the present for an uncertain future never sits well with me. We've been through the "rebuilding" process with our previous four GMs too.

Rebuilding is a really inappropriate euphemism for it. No one should call it "rebuilding" until we know for a certainty the team has actually been "rebuilt." Which requires hindsight.

Why haven't you written them off already?

[JoeMama]

Why haven't you written them off already?

Line 2.

Better coaching.

Not that I have to worry about that anymore.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Well maybe we can enjoy football in 13 months.

The talent drop off between Sammy/Darby to Matthews/Gaines is not even close to being enough to claim that we don't have a shot at the playoffs. If we had a shot yesterday, we have a shot today. Not that we had a shot yesterday, but if you think we did, we still do.

[DraftBoy]

Doubt that. He's our whole O this year. Run the ball and play tight D is the plan this year.

Why keep him? If we're going to tank then let's at least not half ass that.

At this point Taylor, McCoy, Wood, Incognito, Glenn, K. Williams, Hughes, Dareus, Alexander, Hyde should all be available for a trade. I'd be open to flip Matthews and Gaines as well if they could net anything.

[DraftBoy]

The talent drop off between Sammy/Darby to Matthews/Gaines is not even close to being enough to claim that we don't have a shot at the playoffs. If we had a shot yesterday, we have a shot today. Not that we had a shot yesterday, but if you think we did, we still do.

Yes it is.

You traded a #1 WR (on our team) for a WR who needs to play from the slot. You traded a #1 CB (on our team) for a CB who got beat for the most TD's last year. This was not a trade where we only lost a little bit of skill. We lost a substantial amount of skill and speed at both positions.

[YardRat]

These aren't just trades, these are messages. If you are a player that was acquired (and it doesn't matter how) prior to this off-season your job isn't necessarily safe. "You are either one of us, or you are gone...it's our team now".

[EDS]

Good thing the Bills will have a lot of draft picks, and I would think a decent amount of cap space. Almost guaranteed they will need to replace Taylor, Wood, Incognito, Boldin, K. Williams, Gaines and Matthews at a minimum.

[Mouldsie]

my guess is Shady is next..... i don't know. just a thought.

Then I will start taking this supposed Tank plan seriously.

[kgun12]

These aren't just trades, these are messages. If you are a player that was acquired (and it doesn't matter how) prior to this off-season your job isn't necessarily safe. "You are either one of us, or you are gone...it's our team now".

I hope Ragland and T. Taylor understands this and I'm a TT fan.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Oh its a good write up, but it omits one important thing, namely has anyone made a Hitler just found out the Bills traded Sammy and Darby youtube clip?

[TigerJ]

Draftboy is certainly right about the speed aspect of these trades. While I can see positives in them, and I try not to be too hung up on 40 times, the Bills got quite a bit slower yesterday, and that makes me wary. When there is a lack of team speed, opponents can usually figure out how to take advantage.

[kingJofNYC]

Barnwell writes that we repeatedly traded down in the 2017 which is flat out false, we moved up twice at least. Too soon to be writing winners and losers.

[JoeMama]

Draftboy is certainly right about the speed aspect of these trades. While I can see positives in them, and I try not to be too hung up on 40 times, the Bills got quite a bit slower yesterday, and that makes me wary. When there is a lack of team speed, opponents can usually figure out how to take advantage.

That's what I'm not liking about entering the season with three slot receivers and no legit outside guys.

We're a running team. If we want to keep defenses honest, it helps to have at least one player that can stretch a defense vertically.

Right now we're 100% horizontal. Seems like an easy offense to shut down.

But I guess that's the point when you're tanking for next year's draft.

[Mr. Pink]

Sammy Watkins official 40 time - 4.43 Jeremy Matthews - 4.46

Significant?

[JoeMama]

Sammy Watkins official 40 time - 4.43 Jeremy Matthews - 4.46

Significant?

Jordan.

At any rate, it's not all in the 40. If it were, Jerry Rice would have been a total bum in the NFL.

Matthews' body of work very clearly indicates he's strictly a possession receiver. Not a deep threat.

Be that as it may, it doesn't matter. Watkins is injury prone and was gone anyway. Matthews won't be here beyond this season either is my guess.

[Mr. Pink]

Jordan.

At any rate, it's not all in the 40. If it were, Jerry Rice would have been a total bum in the NFL.

Matthews' body of work very clearly indicates he's strictly a possession receiver. Not a deep threat.

Be that as it may, it doesn't matter. Watkins is injury prone and was gone anyway. Matthews won't be here beyond this season either is my guess.

Thanks for the correction.

Yes, Jordan was certainly used differently than Sammy was here. It doesn't mean that Jordan won't be used differently here than he was in Philly though. Someone is going to have to take the sideline fly pattern role on this team because that's about all this QB is good at throwing on this roster.

I, like you, don't think Matthews is here in 2018 either. He's a guy who'll command around 10m per on the market. Kenny Britt got 8 and Pierre Garcon got over 9. Add another year, the cap going up a little and the fact that production wise Matthews is right with those two as well as being younger. I see no reason to pay that to a guy who isn't going to be your clear cut number 1 WR.

[JoeMama]

Thanks for the correction.

Yes, Jordan was certainly used differently than Sammy was here. It doesn't mean that Jordan won't be used differently here than he was in Philly though. Someone is going to have to take the sideline fly pattern role on this team because that's about all this QB is good at throwing on this roster.

I, like you, don't think Matthews is here in 2018 either. He's a guy who'll command around 10m per on the market. Kenny Britt got 8 and Pierre Garcon got over 9. Add another year, the cap going up a little and the fact that production wise Matthews is right with those two as well as being younger. I see no reason to pay that to a guy who isn't going to be your clear cut number 1 WR.

Me neither. And after seeing what Robert Woods got paid in LA, it was clear the WR market has changed a whole lot since the last time we had to sign one to a long term deal. I had no idea middling talent could command that kind of price tag.

I think DraftBoy (?) was saying this earlier, but apparently Matthews was moved to the outside more often last season and it resulted in the lowest production of his career (although I imagine a rookie QB factors into that as well).

I'm still digesting the rebuild. I'm always in "win now" mode, as unrealistic as that may have been.

[Mr. Pink]

Me neither. And after seeing what Robert Woods got paid in LA, it was clear the WR market has changed a whole lot since the last time we had to sign one to a long term deal. I had no idea middling talent could command that kind of price tag.

I think DraftBoy (?) was saying this earlier, but apparently Matthews was moved to the outside more often last season and it resulted in the lowest production of his career (although I imagine a rookie QB factors into that as well).

I'm still digesting the rebuild. I'm always in "win now" mode, as unrealistic as that may have been.

I've wanted a rebuild for years. It should have been done when Jauron and Marv inherited the TD mess but wasn't. It was band-aid after band-aid. Giving the keys to the city to a primadonna. Selling the fanbase on the speed of CJ Spiller. Etc.. I'd be all in for moving McCoy if the pieces coming back are a fair value, then you plug in Williams and see what you got there especially at the RB position where they are a dime a dozen. For years this franchise has run the ball well with a different myriad of guys back there, fat bastard Karlos Williams ran well here. If you get value for Charles Clay you move him, Gary Barnidge could step in with a little dropoff and produce. Anyone who you don't view as a long term piece for the right price can and should be moved. I just used McCoy and Clay because I think those two would net you the best ROI.

To me, this team is nowhere near close enough to really compete with the Ravens/Steelers/Bengals - whoever doesn't win the North, the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, Colts, Texans of the league. At this point it's a crap shoot for 1 of 2 seeds with teams that are not on the Patriots level are still clearly better than the Bills.

The fact that the Patriots are in this division makes that choice even easier to me. As long as Brady, playing at the level he is now, is still there the Bills as currently constructed have no chance at overtaking them. So maybe the team truly does suck for the next 2-3 years while acquiring real pieces for the future and you come out the other side with Brady missing a step or three or retired and you can legitimately win the division and not just hope for 5 different matchups in week 14 to go the exact right way to keep your minute mediocre playoff hopes alive as your sitting at 6-6 or 5-7.

The only part of bringing in Matthews I don't like is it looks like another band-aid. I'd rather the trade of Watkins allow someone like Streater, Brown or Lewis get playing time to see if they sink or swim at this level. But instead production wise we go sideways with a guy who has less potential than the guy that was shuttled off.

Matthews production slipped for a couple glaring reasons to me. One, he was no longer in Chip Kelly's uptempo lead the NFL in plays from scrimmage offense. Less plays, less chances to touch the ball. Two, he did have that rookie QB throwing the ball. There are probably other factors involved in why his production dipped that are all based on him specifically but I didn't watch him enough to give you those reasons.

Here's the real thing though, to me. Say that the QBs people think are coming out this year. The Jets will likely win 1-2 games and then get Sam Darnold. They'll probably suck next year too and then come 2019 they're playing good football. We sit back and do status quo we're now fighting with the Dolphins to stay out of the cellar until Brady retires or loses those steps.

[Mouldsie]

I've wanted a rebuild for years. It should have been done when Jauron and Marv inherited the TD mess but wasn't. It was band-aid after band-aid. Giving the keys to the city to a primadonna. Selling the fanbase on the speed of CJ Spiller. Etc.. I'd be all in for moving McCoy if the pieces coming back are a fair value, then you plug in Williams and see what you got there especially at the RB position where they are a dime a dozen. For years this franchise has run the ball well with a different myriad of guys back there, fat bastard Karlos Williams ran well here. If you get value for Charles Clay you move him, Gary Barnidge could step in with a little dropoff and produce. Anyone who you don't view as a long term piece for the right price can and should be moved. I just used McCoy and Clay because I think those two would net you the best ROI.

To me, this team is nowhere near close enough to really compete with the Ravens/Steelers/Bengals - whoever doesn't win the North, the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, Colts, Texans of the league. At this point it's a crap shoot for 1 of 2 seeds with teams that are not on the Patriots level are still clearly better than the Bills.

The fact that the Patriots are in this division makes that choice even easier to me. As long as Brady, playing at the level he is now, is still there the Bills as currently constructed have no chance at overtaking them. So maybe the team truly does suck for the next 2-3 years while acquiring real pieces for the future and you come out the other side with Brady missing a step or three or retired and you can legitimately win the division and not just hope for 5 different matchups in week 14 to go the exact right way to keep your minute mediocre playoff hopes alive as your sitting at 6-6 or 5-7.

The only part of bringing in Matthews I don't like is it looks like another band-aid. I'd rather the trade of Watkins allow someone like Streater, Brown or Lewis get playing time to see if they sink or swim at this level. But instead production wise we go sideways with a guy who has less potential than the guy that was shuttled off.

Matthews production slipped for a couple glaring reasons to me. One, he was no longer in Chip Kelly's uptempo lead the NFL in plays from scrimmage offense. Less plays, less chances to touch the ball. Two, he did have that rookie QB throwing the ball. There are probably other factors involved in why his production dipped that are all based on him specifically but I didn't watch him enough to give you those reasons.

Here's the real thing though, to me. Say that the QBs people think are coming out this year. The Jets will likely win 1-2 games and then get Sam Darnold. They'll probably suck next year too and then come 2019 they're playing good football. We sit back and do status quo we're now fighting with the Dolphins to stay out of the cellar until Brady retires or loses those steps.

So you support this "rebuild" that also involves "winning now" (quoting ol Beane boy). In other words 7-9 with two late first rounds picks is what will turn us around? Sounds like nonsense.

[Mr. Pink]

So you support this "rebuild" that also involves "winning now" (quoting ol Beane boy). In other words 7-9 with two late first rounds picks is what will turn us around? Sounds like nonsense.

This isn't a 7-9 team. This is a 4-12 team. Look through their schedule and tell me where you're finding 7 wins.

Jets, Panthers, Broncos, Falcons, Bengals, Bucs, Raiders, Jets, Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, Pats, Colts, Dolphins, Pats, Dolphins.

Of course everyone in an NFL organization comes out and says they want to win now, even the people over in Cleveland last year said they wanted to win now.

[Mouldsie]

This isn't a 7-9 team. This is a 4-12 team. Look through their schedule and tell me where you're finding 7 wins.

Jets, Panthers, Broncos, Falcons, Bengals, Bucs, Raiders, Jets, Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, Pats, Colts, Dolphins, Pats, Dolphins.

Of course everyone in an NFL organization comes out and says they want to win now, even the people over in Cleveland last year said they wanted to win now.

We better jettison Incognito, Kyle Williams, and LeSean McCoy

[Mr. Pink]

We better jettison Incognito, Kyle Williams, and LeSean McCoy

I stated elsewhere that if the value is there, I'd jettison anyone who isn't in the long term plans.

[Mace]

Yes it is.

You traded a #1 WR (on our team) for a WR who needs to play from the slot. You traded a #1 CB (on our team) for a CB who got beat for the most TD's last year. This was not a trade where we only lost a little bit of skill. We lost a substantial amount of skill and speed at both positions.

Thing is though, Darby is a man cover CB in a zone cover defense, and you're figuring Watkins stays healthy.

Last year of Matthews contract, last year of Watkin's...pricier risk ? Air raid WR's & CB's are coming out of college in flocks, nature of the college game.

The speed (healthy Watkins) & skill (man cover Darby in zone cover D) were appropriate judgements by the organization, with the results uncertain until it plays out.

Say Taylor looks solid, or Peterman develops, and you have 6 picks in the top 3 rounds to address your vision. That's a lot of swag to trade or simply use to get what you want. Then it comes down to how they use it.

I don't see a tank, I see practical steps in a plan. Don't know if it works, but it all makes sense to me.

[Mouldsie]

We love to continually change schemes and change personnel for those schemes instead of scheming to our players' strengths. Wasn't that a critique of yours before?

Bills fans have the patience of saints.

[Mace]

We love to continually change schemes and change personnel for those schemes instead of scheming to our players' strengths. Wasn't that a critique of yours before?

Bills fans have the patience of saints.

Absolutely, and I know what you're saying, but it wasn't all that big in scope on defense. 1 man corner who didn't fit...possibly also Ragland unless something changes.

Compare that to Ryan dropping Dareus and Mario into coverage, or using Kyle Williams as a spy to contain Mariota's ability to run.....stuffing successful 4-3 defense into Ryan hybrid scheme.

On the offensive side, Watkins had big play ability when healthy, but when healthy, you didn't see him dominating games and db's like top WR's do anyway.

No doubt about the patience of saints. For me it's 47 years or so of this, and there are people here enduring longer. I don't begrudge anyone their impatience or aggravation, happens to me too.

[Turf]

What we will ultimately find out this year is how much a coaching scheme plays into the success of an organization. I say we'll see major improvements, but we're still a ways off personnel wise. The schedule is just brutal.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Yes it is.

You traded a #1 WR (on our team) for a WR who needs to play from the slot.

Eh.

Our #1 WR was averaging a whopping 4 catches per game over his first 3 seasons. I can't imagine where we're going to find someone to make up for that on our team.


You traded a #1 CB (on our team) for a CB who got beat for the most TD's last year.

It's definitely a bigger drop in talent at the CB position compared to the WR position, but we'll see how many losses that will account for on our record. I'm not really sure what kind of defense McDermott runs, but I've heard that it could be heavily zone coverage. That's a completely different system than what Darby has seen over the last 2 seasons, so who knows how well he would have performed. Cornerback is clearly a less valuable position on our team today than it was with Rex.