Building A Winner

[Night Train]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/the-bills-are-perfectly-set-up-to-build-a-winner-after-trading-watkins-darby/

[Pennywise]

I agree. It seems like the Bills actually have a plan in place.

[Mouldsie]

Can someone tell me the plan?

From my angle it looks like the plan is to go 7-9 then draft a few guys but still need an answer at QB

[Pennywise]

Can someone tell me the plan?

From my angle it looks like the plan is to go 7-9 then draft a few guys but still need an answer at QB

JMO, but with players like Incognito, Wood, K. Williams and Shady with the miles on his legs, I think the Bills will have a lot of holes to fill in the next couple years.

Time to start thinking about what kind of team you want to build heading into the next decade.

But, agreed. None of it matters until they have their answer at QB. I think they took a step in the right direction in answering that question today with the money they now have in the bank in the form of draft picks.

[Mouldsie]

JMO, but with players like Incognito, Wood, K. Williams and Shady with the miles on his legs, I think the Bills will have a lot of holes to fill in the next couple years.

Time to start thinking about what kind of team you want to build heading into the next decade.

An 8-8 type team it seems like.

BTW can Brady retire already?

[Skooby]

Plan is to see who wants to stay & and who wants to leave, they're all playing for their jobs with no one spared or off limits.

[Mace]

Can someone tell me the plan?

From my angle it looks like the plan is to go 7-9 then draft a few guys but still need an answer at QB

Well, they now have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds in 2018.

[Pennywise]

An 8-8 type team it seems like.

BTW can Brady retire already?

Why do you say that?

[swiper]

The moral of this story is it's too soon to judge these moves. Far too soon. If they work out down the road, Beane is a hero. If not, he's a goat.

While no player is expendable, the only way Beane comes out a real hero is if the Bills get a real franchise QB out of this. And that, in reality, probably means no play-offs for at least three more years.

Ugh.

[Skooby]

Well, they now have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds in 2018.

Potentially 4 picks in the top 35 as an absolute best case scenario, which is us finishing up in the top 3 worst teams and KC / LA being 1/2/3rd worst as well.

[YardRat]

You can't force a QB. Using a single existing pick anywhere in the draft, or having 31 first-rounders so you can trade all of them up to the top spot and get 'your guy'...either way you've got the same chance of that pick going boom or bust. Having more picks, however, gives you the assets to create more opportunities to take those chances on a guy, whether it's using those picks to choose somebody, to package and trade up to choose somebody, or ship off to another team for somebody they already have.

[Pennywise]

The moral of this story is it's too soon to judge these moves. Far too soon. If they work out down the road, Beane is a hero. If not, he's a goat.

While no player is expendable, the only way Beane comes out a real hero is if the Bills get a real franchise QB out of this. And that, in reality, probably means no play-offs for at least three more years.

Ugh.
Not trying to be a jerk but if getting a franchise QB means no playoffs for at least three years, what then is the alternative?

[Night Train]

Can someone tell me the plan?
Eating Lobster at the next draft party.

[Mouldsie]

You can't force a QB. Using a single existing pick anywhere in the draft, or having 31 first-rounders so you can trade all of them up to the top spot and get 'your guy'...either way you've got the same chance of that pick going boom or bust. Having more picks, however, gives you the assets to create more opportunities to take those chances on a guy, whether it's using those picks to choose somebody, to package and trade up to choose somebody, or ship off to another team for somebody they already have.

I agree and disagree.

You cannot force a QB. I think for the most part the teams this past draft all did that with Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, etc. Though I think the gamble on Mahomes was the smartest one.

You can force a QB who has been well scouted and you have great belief is a player.

I would have forced the issue when Mariota was coming out. Same with Luck. Same with Russel Wilson. Same with Rivers or Ben or Rodgers. Some guys might have done so with Carr, I wasn't enamored enough to pound that table though so I missed him. Last year we should have done so with Dak Prescott perhaps... I had him as my #3 QB but didn't see this kind of success (of course the jury is still out long term too).

The problem with the Russel Wilson and Dak Prescott strategy is you're kind of counting on the rest of the league to get it wrong and it becomes more of a gamble than being at the top and able to control your destiny.

My very early analysis so far is that we should target Josh Rosen if he declares. It will be hard to do so if we're not already near the top of the draft. Anything else for me right now is forcing the issue, ala EJ Manuel and JP Losman. Darnold appears to be the clear #1 by pundits but I haven't watched him enough to fall in love yet. The times I've seen he reminds me of Fitz but with an arm. IDK how I feel about that yet if that remains my analysis.

- - - Updated - - -


You can't force a QB. Using a single existing pick anywhere in the draft, or having 31 first-rounders so you can trade all of them up to the top spot and get 'your guy'...either way you've got the same chance of that pick going boom or bust. Having more picks, however, gives you the assets to create more opportunities to take those chances on a guy, whether it's using those picks to choose somebody, to package and trade up to choose somebody, or ship off to another team for somebody they already have.

I agree and disagree.

You cannot force a QB. I think for the most part the teams this past draft all did that with Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, etc. Though I think the gamble on Mahomes was the smartest one.

You can force a QB who has been well scouted and you have great belief is a player.

I would have forced the issue when Mariota was coming out. Same with Luck. Same with Russel Wilson. Same with Rivers or Ben or Rodgers. Some guys might have done so with Carr, I wasn't enamored enough to pound that table though so I missed him. Last year we should have done so with Dak Prescott perhaps... I had him as my #3 QB but didn't see this kind of success (of course the jury is still out long term too).

The problem with the Russel Wilson and Dak Prescott strategy is you're kind of counting on the rest of the league to get it wrong and it becomes more of a gamble than being at the top and able to control your destiny.

My very early analysis so far is that we should target Josh Rosen if he declares. It will be hard to do so if we're not already near the top of the draft. Anything else for me right now is forcing the issue, ala EJ Manuel and JP Losman. Darnold appears to be the clear #1 by pundits but I haven't watched him enough to fall in love yet. The times I've seen he reminds me of Fitz but with an arm. IDK how I feel about that yet if that remains my analysis.

[Thurmal]

Part of me wonders if they will let both Matthews and Gaines walk next year in some effort to build a huge salary cap reserve, a la how NBA teams will trade for expiring contracts.

[Night Train]

Part of me wonders if they will let both Matthews and Gaines walk next year in some effort to build a huge salary cap reserve, a la how NBA teams will trade for expiring contracts.

With K. Williams and E.Wood finishing up, they will have around 26 Mil in space, from what I read today.

[kgun12]

Can someone tell me the plan?

From my angle it looks like the plan is to go 7-9 then draft a few guys but still need an answer at QB

Wow, you nailed it, without a QB there is are no answer. Ralph and Terry didn't draft a QB cause they want to suck!

[psubills62]

Could just be me, but I feel like Garoppolo is this regime's kind of QB.

[BillsImpossible]

Wow, you nailed it, without a QB there is are no answer. Ralph and Terry didn't draft a QB cause they want to suck

wtf are you talking about? You think they want to suck because they didn't reach for a QB in 2017 when everyone knows the 2018 QB draft class is the best in many years.

[kgun12]

wtf are you talking about? You think they want to suck because they didn't reach for a QB in 2017 when everyone knows the 2018 QB draft class is the best in many years.

No not at all. I'm saying you can't win **** in the NFL without a QB and it doesn't matter what else you do. It seems like people on this board think we have tried to suck. When Ralph was alive he was cheap and wouldn't spend money, we spend money and people complain we send all our money. We make trades and we are tanking on purpose, we keep a player and we stupid. Another words, it's seems like no matter what the FO does, it's wrong The point was YOU DON'T WIN IN THIS LEAGUE WITHOUT A QB!!! For better or worse we have tried like every other team in this league, the lucky one's dart landed in the right place. Some are luckier than other, GB Favre and Rogers, SF Montana and Young NE lucking out with Brady! Than you have the Bills and..., the dolphins Mario and..., well you get the idea.

[Mouldsie]

It's not luck my friend.

We shall see if these new guys can scout.

[ICRockets]

Potentially 4 picks in the top 35 as an absolute best case scenario, which is us finishing up in the top 3 worst teams and KC / LA being 1/2/3rd worst as well.

I wish I could say I'm surprised you need this explained to you, but it doesn't matter where KC finishes. Their 1st round pick will occur sometime within the top 35.

[Tinboy]

Is there a QB i next years draft to pay kings ransom for with all the picks we have? Or should we just draft as many players as possible?

[swiper]

Potentially 4 picks in the top 35 as an absolute best case scenario, which is us finishing up in the top 3 worst teams and KC / LA being 1/2/3rd worst as well.

None of it matters if they don't walk away with a real (not a potential) franchise QB.

All those picks mean nothing until they do that.

I was so upset that Whaley pulled what he did to get Watkins and left us with no QB. Really? I still can't believe he did that. Should have been canned right then and there.

[swiper]

Is there a QB i next years draft to pay kings ransom for with all the picks we have? Or should we just draft as many players as possible?

Sam Darnold, IF he declares for the draft.



Here's why:

Mobile, unflinching Sam Darnold should help USC’s young offensive line (http://www.ocregister.com/2017/08/08/mobile-unflinching-sam-darnold-should-help-uscs-young-offensive-line/)

[SpikedLemonade]

Excellent article and I agree 100%.

[kgun12]

It's not luck my friend.

We shall see if these new guys can scout.

I disagree, look at the P. Manning R. Leaf picks. Polian said it just case down to a gut feeling, I suspect the family name might have had something to do with it. Not to mention all the can't miss QB's that were drafted throughout the years, that have a 33% success rate.

[tomz]

Part of me wonders if they will let both Matthews and Gaines walk next year in some effort to build a huge salary cap reserve, a la how NBA teams will trade for expiring contracts.

For that matter, they are also having Sammy prove it with the Rams but they could resign him if he hits FA.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Is there a QB i next years draft to pay kings ransom for with all the picks we have? Or should we just draft as many players as possible?
Those are good picks, you go BPA. It may take a while to mesh, but you get the best players available.

[Mouldsie]

I disagree, look at the P. Manning R. Leaf picks. Polian said it just case down to a gut feeling, I suspect the family name might have had something to do with it. Not to mention all the can't miss QB's that were drafted throughout the years, that have a 33% success rate.

it's not a lottery.... these are human athletes