jimmifli
11-01-2017, 10:22 PM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kelvin-benjamin-is-the-nfls-clutchest-receiver/
When Cam Newton needed one last completion to seal the Carolina Panthers’ Week 5 win over the Detroit Lions, it’s no surprise that he looked Kelvin Benjamin’s way (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201710080det.htm). The 26-year-old receiver is football’s answer to Mariano Rivera: He shows up to close out games.
Benjamin is not an All-Pro, or even a likely Pro Bowl candidate; this season, he’s on pace for just 870 receiving yards. The 2014 first-round pick hasn’t even produced on par with many of his draft classmates. Partially because of an ACL injury that cost him his second season (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000512969/article/kelvin-benjamin-out-for-year-with-torn-left-acl), Benjamin, who was the fifth receiver taken in 2014 (http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:wr), ranks just ninth (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2014&year_max=2014&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos%5B%5D=wr&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default) in that group in career receiving yards.
Benjamin’s per-game production also fails to impress when compared with all wideouts since 2014. According to ESPN’s TruMedia, he ranks 39th in per-game receptions, 34th in yardage and 20th in touchdowns.
But in the fourth quarter, he’s as productive as any of his peers — and no team in the NFL depends on any receiver to close out games as much as the Panthers depend on Benjamin.
<figure id="attachment_165345" class="wp-caption aligncenter " style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px auto 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 17px; line-height: inherit; font-family: ArnhemPro, Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative; white-space: normal; max-width: 575px;">https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/schalter-panthers-1.png?w=575&h=769&quality=90&strip=info</figure>Among wide receivers who played at least 25 games from 2014 through 2017, Benjamin’s average of 23.3 fourth-quarter receiving yards ranks fourth — behind three world-beaters in Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins — and his 0.67 touchdowns per fourth quarter is tied for 10th. In the chart above, Benjamin’s per-game fourth-quarter receiving production appears to be solidly among the best in the league. But the bubble size tells an even more compelling story.
Most wide receivers produce more in the fourth quarter, as NFL teams throw more often especially when they are losing. But only a handful of one-dimensional wideouts like Cordarrelle Patterson and Taylor Gabriel — big-play specialists used more often in aggressive passing situations — see a bigger proportional increase in their stats from the first three quarters to the fourth than Benjamin. No full-time No. 1 receiver1 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kelvin-benjamin-is-the-nfls-clutchest-receiver/#fn-1) steps up when it counts like him — and Newton knows it.
<section class="viz" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 17px; line-height: inherit; font-family: ArnhemPro, Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; width: 575px; white-space: normal;"><header class="viz" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px 0px 18px; padding: 13px 0px 0px; border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240); border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">Benjamin becomes elite when the fourth quarter beginsTop 10 receivers in average yards gained per route run in the fourth quarter, 2014-17
</header>
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px 0px 2px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 700; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0.8em; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: bottom; text-transform: uppercase;">
PLAYER
TEAM
AVG. YARDS/ ROUTES RUN
TARGET/ ROUTE RATE
AVG. YARDS/REC
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">
Kelvin Benjamin
CAR
3.2
30.6%
16.3
Antonio Brown
PIT
2.9
29.1
14.2
Odell Beckham
NYG
2.9
27.3
15.9
Jordy Nelson
GB
2.6
23.6
15.2
Julio Jones
ATL
2.6
28.9
15.3
DeAndre Hopkins
HOU
2.5
28.4
14.8
A.J. Green
CIN
2.2
23.8
17.6
Julian Edelman
NE
2.1
24.1
13.0
Jeremy Maclin
BAL
2.1
23.5
12.7
Emmanuel Sanders
DEN
2.1
22.4
15.9
</tbody>
<footer class="viz" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 240, 240); border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">SOURCE: ESPN TRUMEDIA
</footer></section>According to TruMedia, Benjamin’s been thrown to on 30.6 percent of the fourth-quarter routes he’s run. That’s tops in the NFL over the course of his career. Factor in his league-leading touchdowns-per-route average (0.034) and eighth-best yards-per-catch average (16.3), and Benjamin produces more offense every time he goes out for a late-game pass than anyone else on the planet.
more...
When Cam Newton needed one last completion to seal the Carolina Panthers’ Week 5 win over the Detroit Lions, it’s no surprise that he looked Kelvin Benjamin’s way (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201710080det.htm). The 26-year-old receiver is football’s answer to Mariano Rivera: He shows up to close out games.
Benjamin is not an All-Pro, or even a likely Pro Bowl candidate; this season, he’s on pace for just 870 receiving yards. The 2014 first-round pick hasn’t even produced on par with many of his draft classmates. Partially because of an ACL injury that cost him his second season (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000512969/article/kelvin-benjamin-out-for-year-with-torn-left-acl), Benjamin, who was the fifth receiver taken in 2014 (http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:wr), ranks just ninth (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2014&year_max=2014&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos%5B%5D=wr&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default) in that group in career receiving yards.
Benjamin’s per-game production also fails to impress when compared with all wideouts since 2014. According to ESPN’s TruMedia, he ranks 39th in per-game receptions, 34th in yardage and 20th in touchdowns.
But in the fourth quarter, he’s as productive as any of his peers — and no team in the NFL depends on any receiver to close out games as much as the Panthers depend on Benjamin.
<figure id="attachment_165345" class="wp-caption aligncenter " style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px auto 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 17px; line-height: inherit; font-family: ArnhemPro, Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative; white-space: normal; max-width: 575px;">https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/schalter-panthers-1.png?w=575&h=769&quality=90&strip=info</figure>Among wide receivers who played at least 25 games from 2014 through 2017, Benjamin’s average of 23.3 fourth-quarter receiving yards ranks fourth — behind three world-beaters in Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins — and his 0.67 touchdowns per fourth quarter is tied for 10th. In the chart above, Benjamin’s per-game fourth-quarter receiving production appears to be solidly among the best in the league. But the bubble size tells an even more compelling story.
Most wide receivers produce more in the fourth quarter, as NFL teams throw more often especially when they are losing. But only a handful of one-dimensional wideouts like Cordarrelle Patterson and Taylor Gabriel — big-play specialists used more often in aggressive passing situations — see a bigger proportional increase in their stats from the first three quarters to the fourth than Benjamin. No full-time No. 1 receiver1 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kelvin-benjamin-is-the-nfls-clutchest-receiver/#fn-1) steps up when it counts like him — and Newton knows it.
<section class="viz" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 17px; line-height: inherit; font-family: ArnhemPro, Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; width: 575px; white-space: normal;"><header class="viz" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px 0px 18px; padding: 13px 0px 0px; border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240); border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">Benjamin becomes elite when the fourth quarter beginsTop 10 receivers in average yards gained per route run in the fourth quarter, 2014-17
</header>
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px 0px 2px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 700; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0.8em; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: bottom; text-transform: uppercase;">
PLAYER
TEAM
AVG. YARDS/ ROUTES RUN
TARGET/ ROUTE RATE
AVG. YARDS/REC
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">
Kelvin Benjamin
CAR
3.2
30.6%
16.3
Antonio Brown
PIT
2.9
29.1
14.2
Odell Beckham
NYG
2.9
27.3
15.9
Jordy Nelson
GB
2.6
23.6
15.2
Julio Jones
ATL
2.6
28.9
15.3
DeAndre Hopkins
HOU
2.5
28.4
14.8
A.J. Green
CIN
2.2
23.8
17.6
Julian Edelman
NE
2.1
24.1
13.0
Jeremy Maclin
BAL
2.1
23.5
12.7
Emmanuel Sanders
DEN
2.1
22.4
15.9
</tbody>
<footer class="viz" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 240, 240); border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">SOURCE: ESPN TRUMEDIA
</footer></section>According to TruMedia, Benjamin’s been thrown to on 30.6 percent of the fourth-quarter routes he’s run. That’s tops in the NFL over the course of his career. Factor in his league-leading touchdowns-per-route average (0.034) and eighth-best yards-per-catch average (16.3), and Benjamin produces more offense every time he goes out for a late-game pass than anyone else on the planet.
more...