How good will McGahee be in the Pros?

[WG]

In discussing this w/ some of y'all, I thought back on WM's season at Miami. Here's how he played v. top 25 (final) teams:

First of all, other than OSU, the highest ranked team that Miami played was VA Tech at 18th. Both FSU and WVU were ranked slightly higher at the time they played Miami, but neither turned out to be that good.

v. OSU, ranked 1st:

20 for 67, 1 TD, 3 catches for 5 yards

v. VA Tech, ranked 18th:

39 for 205, 6 TD, 2 catches for 21 yards

v. Pitt, ranked 19th:

19 for 159, 2 TD, 4 catches for 11 yards

v. FSU, ranked 21st:

26 for 95, 1 TD, 3 catches for 78 yards

v. WVU, ranked 25th:

32 for 112, 3 TD, 2 catches for 71 yards


Overall that's pretty dagonned good! But I guess since Miami didn't play any top 10 teams other than OSU, and since they had such immense talent, I suppose I'm concerned that that big game of 3.4 YPC and 20 of 67 means more than the rest for some reason. Even v. FSU and WVU, his avg. YPC was under 4.0. 3.6 and 3.5. That has me concerned that he may be somewhat overrated. And again, for anyone who saw the Fiesta Bowl, you couldn't have been too impressed with his play there either. Dorsey also played the lights out v. the young Tech DBs and racked up 300 yards on only 12 completions. Perhaps that led the way for McG's big day. Who knows.

[casdhf]

I'd like to see him step on the field before I nominate him for the Hall of Fame or the scrap heap

[Alluro]

How good can he be if he's healthy? I think he could get 1700 yds and 20 combined TDs in a season- numbers henry will never approach.

[Captain gameboy]

I think the level of success of his knee rehab has a lot more to do with his eventual success than his stats in his sophmore year.

Let's not forget. 6.0", 223.
NFL.com had him at a 4.24 40.
Universally regarded as the best high school running back in Florida in '99.
Redshirted as freshman, so only played two years Div. 1. Serious contender for the Heisman, and the no one runner on prabably the best college team over the past two years..
Pretty nice resume, I'd say.
What I like about him is that he's supposed to be quicker than fast, and he's plenty fast.
Henry is great, but doesn't threaten the end zone unless close in. He's more of a clock eater.
We haven't had a guy who can take it in since OJ-someone who can really take the pressure off the passing game. Thurman was superb,a hall of famer, but even he couldn't flat out-run people.

Regardless, his knee recovery is the most important thing now.

[Alluro]

"He's one of the best I've seen in a long, long time. He's bigger and faster than Edgerrin James. It's hard to believe he's 225. Good hands. Knocks them right on the ground in blitz pickup. He's everything."

-Ron Nay, Washington Redskins Director of Scouting

[casdhf]

I think the only reason he came out was because he wouldnt even be the best HB at Miami

[Tatonka]

oh christ.. :rolleyes:

[The Spaz]

Exactly T the Running backs coach of the Hurricanes said that it was not true!

[Tatonka]

oh christ at this whole thread.. not just that statement..

[The Spaz]

Yeah true!:) I am a Bills optimist may I be cursed from Wys forever MuHAHAHAAHAHa...lol:)

[bernielivsey_1]

:drinker: Willis will be like no other RB we've had. He's faster than Travis and Thomas. He can catch just fine and like Thurman the can line up as a wide out. His first step was/is amazing. He is a gamebreaker. Having said all this I love Travis and his game. If TD and GW handle this right Travis will be hear til 2005 and become a free agent with no animosity. Wills will be our future after that. :teeth:

:hungry: Then we'll have a franchise RB and a franchise QB right Wys?:hungry:

[MDFINFAN]

Well if you go on the history of Miami RB's in the NFL, I think you will be very please, they are usually very well prepared for the NFL..already have a cockiness about them..Look at recent RB's from Miami.

Edgerim James, Clinton Portis.
Look at their players overall, Sapp, Shockley, Ray Lewis, I could go on and on, Miami prepares Pro Players for the Pros.

[Billz_fan]

A question that I would not even approach untill the man hits the field during the season.

Loads of potential and hopefully speed.

We will find out when he plays.......To be continued :up:

[venis2k1]

U of Miami is a football factory alright.

[HenryRules]

I'm not going to make predictions on how well he'll do.

The one comment I can say for sure is that he will be the hardest working Bill. Everything that I've read/seen/heard about him has indicated that he's gotta be one of the hardest workers in sports. Having guys like that on your team can never be a problem.

[BillsMan80]

HR, you stole my thunder. That is exactly what I was thinking. This guy has the drive to be the best. If he doesn't make it in the pros, it won't be because of a lack of drive and effort.

[LABillsFan]

Let me put it this way, Travis Who?

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

I don't think it is a guidline to players who have or haven't played top 25 teams in college and how they will do in the pros.

Let's look at last year's rushing leader - Ricky Williams

In 1997:

Team - Att - Yds - TD (rank - record)
Rutgers - 19-155-3 (0-7)
UCLA - 13-36-0 (#5 - 9-2)
Rice - 28-249-5
Ok St - 16-79-1 (8-4)
Okla - 40-223-2 (#24 - 8-3)
Miss - 23-235-2 (7-5)
Colo - 29-201-4 (5-6)
Baylor - 31-226-2 (2-9)
Tech - 21-80-1 (6-5)


What does it mean?

[TypicalBill]

when healthy, imagine having a Portis and a Henry in the backfield...:hungry:



:cp:

[Jan Reimers]

We're getting Portis, too?

[The Spaz]

He's saying Travis Henry and Clinton Portis = Willis McGahee and I have to say his physical attributes seem to tell me it's a pretty good evaluation!:)

[Jan Reimers]

Damn, I thought we were really adding depth at RB. Just kidding - I understood the analogy.

[The Spaz]

Oh oops....lol:)

[WG]

Originally posted by Alluro
How good can he be if he's healthy? I think he could get 1700 yds and 20 combined TDs in a season- numbers henry will never approach.
At 4.4/carry Alluro, it would have only taken Henry another 59 carries to hit 1,700. If he were to up his avg. by less than .2 YPC he'd have hit 1,700. I think he can do it this year. He had 13 TDs and was highly underutilized it the endzone! I think he can hit those marks if used properly.


Originally posted by gameboy
I think the level of success of his knee rehab has a lot more to do with his eventual success than his stats in his sophmore year.

Regardless, his knee recovery is the most important thing now.
Valid statements gb. Are you, or anyone for that matter, only concerned about his current injury and rehab vice his seeming propensity of getting hurt every season? Seems like there's no concern or questioning of that.


Originally posted by bernielivsey_1
:drinker: Willis will be like no other RB we've had. He's faster than Travis and Thomas. He can catch just fine and like Thurman the can line up as a wide out. His first step was/is amazing. He is a gamebreaker. Having said all this I love Travis and his game. If TD and GW handle this right Travis will be hear til 2005 and become a free agent with no animosity. Wills will be our future after that. :teeth:

:hungry: Then we'll have a franchise RB and a franchise QB right Wys?:hungry:

Oh really! Did we trade for a QB? Yes, Drew is "like no other QB we've ever had too!" :D


Originally posted by TypicalBill
when healthy, imagine having a Portis and a Henry in the backfield...:hungry:

:cp:

That's not gonna happen though TB. The only way that happens is if Henry lapses and McG shines. If that happens however, we're finished for this season. I don't even want to think about that right now. But there's no way that McG's gonna be healthy enough in time to help us out this year from before mid-season.

And make no mistake, if Henry has a great season, especially if he can limit his fumbling to fewer than 11, say 7 or fewer w/ 5 or fewer lost fumbles, then this is going to be an issue next season. It's gonna disrupt the lockerroom if McGahee starts in place of Henry. They may opt to trade Henry, but then we'd be solely relying on the notion that McGahee won't get hurt again in a 16 game season vice a 10 or 12 game season. Hasn't happened in years for him. That's why I'm concerned. I have little faith that McG can be at least about what Henry is and that the upside is incredibly better. But like a car, it's only nicer if it starts and runs. Doesn't do ya much good sittin' in the shop.

As I see it, we now have a Lincoln, but we're hoping to trade it in for a Mercedes that has had all kinds of problems staying outta the shop. Again, not just this past season, but his 2 prior as well reaching back into H.S. That's my only concern.

[TypicalBill]

yeah, i know what you're saying Wys... i didn't say this season... im talking about next year .... I love Henry but WM has that ability to take the ball to the house anytime he touches the ball...

The problem is, atleast from my part, is that i get to like Henry too much just for the fact that he's a Buffalo Bill, that i tend to overlook the fact that we are getting a player to help us out at the position and could really emerge as one of the best ever without as many fumbles..... I like to see Henry rush for 1700 yards... but if we could get 2000 total rush yards from 2 players, thats always better. Even though the individual stats for Henry or the other player wouldn't look appealing for us or fantasy owners :D .... Tom Donahoe doesn't get too close with players, he's always business and i think that'll help our team.

[TypicalBill]

wheres your BTW post?? :scratch:



oh yeah, you added the last bit of the post by editing :D

[WG]

Well, like someone else pointed out, Eb I think, Platooning situations have never worked. You really need a single RB who is the "primary" runner. There's no chance on earth, assuming Henry has another year at least equal to last, that the two will be happy platooning w/ each other. That much I can fully understand. I wouldn't be either.

We can't simply assume that it's all gonna work out b/c GW or TD makes a decision. Most of this is gonna fall onto one of the two RBs. IMO, the scenario is this; unless TD drafted McG to trade him which I can't imagine as it'd have been stupid IMO, then McG will get some time this year. If he shows anything promising, then they'll compete next year too. If McG's as special as everyone thinks he is, and he stays healthy, then Henry's on the way out. At that point, Henry and his agent, would have to be absolute morons to sign any sort of extension past the '04 season that they've signed. So Henry walks b/c there's no way we'll tag him unless we pull another Price. The difference is that TD may try to pull another Price deal where TD does tag Henry and then trades him for a first, which he'll likely be worth, perhaps more.

But again, this only works well for us if McGahee doesn't get hurt again. And I mean anything, not just his current knee status. That's something that I've not heard anyone else concerned about, even after I brought it up again. Meaning his knack for getting hurt each year, and again, having nothing to do w/ his current knee other than there's only so many times you can hurt your knee w/o "losing something."

We'll see. Perhaps that's what TD has in mind. Trading Henry after the '04 season and after tagging him again like he did w/ Price. The only risk there is that RBs who sit, usually lengthen their career by a year that they sit. RBs usually start faltering around 32 but moreso than any other position, it's a function of the battering they take. So Henry and his agent may be content to play hardball and say that they're not gonna play for the traded team, especially if it's a poor team, which likely he'd be most sought by and most likely we'd get a high pick from. If Henry has a great season, I can't see TD taking a late first for him.

It's interesting to say the least.

[WG]

Originally posted by TypicalBill
wheres your BTW post?? :scratch:

oh yeah, you added the last bit of the post by editing :D BTW, Drew blows...

:D

And yes, I was in the process of editing/adding...

[TypicalBill]

:chuckle:


:up:

[bernielivsey_1]

:flex: Thurman and Davis worked cause Davis knew Thurman was the starter til he beat him out. If we use the same rule of thumb for our situation we might be OK. If Willis wins out the position we trade Travis before he becomes a FA. If Willis doesnt pan out or mature properly (Ron Dayne) then we dont have a problem we resign Travis on 2005. Willis wont earn a lot because he wont reach his encentives.:cas:

[WG]

If he plays better than Henry, which we may very well find out this season, then he'll fulfill many of them as we'll have to start him.

Can you fathom the fan reaction if McGahee shows flashes of game-breaking speed/moves and has say 5.x YPC while Henry remains in the 4.x's and doesn't show the speed/quickness that McGahee supposedly will show?

Then we go back to starting Henry or platoon them!

It wouldn't be pretty.

[WG]

Why sit your better RB?

Doesn't make sense. That's part of the problem here. You don't just demote a RB who puts up say 1,400 to 1,600 yards and 15 TDs!

[Alluro]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Why sit your better RB?

Doesn't make sense. That's part of the problem here. You don't just demote a RB who puts up say 1,400 to 1,600 yards and 15 TDs!

sure you do! why play marcus allen when you have bo jackson?

[Tatonka]

i will bet you 100$ that WM AND HENRY are on the roster next year.. WM will be a 3rd down type back for us for at least a year.