What would you rather have happen? [Archive] - BillsZone.com

08-22-2003, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by imbondz
1. Drew Bledsoe has a career ending injury in week 5 but Alex Van Pelt takes them the rest of the way and wins the SuperBowl?

or

2. Drew Bledsoe has his best career year, breaks Dan Marino's single season passing record, breaks every other passing record for the regular season, takes the Bills to the playoffs but lose in the AFC Championship game. But, the offense and defense are both top 3 in the league and barring injury would be even stronger next season.

First of all, we have no control over this, so it's not like fan opinion can drive an injury to replace a starter.

But I would say this, that if option A happened, then it surely wouldn't say much for Drew now, would it!

He'd have tried and failed in N.E. only to have been replaced by Brady who's already outdone Bledsoe's best in terms of both team and individual performances.

If the same happened here, then why would anyone care if Bledsoe's career ended. Some of the responses here seem to indicate that some would rather see the team led by Drew regardless of possible outcomes under different QBs regardless of who they are!

On option two, again, just as last year, since "passing records" are not equivalent to points or scoring records, I say who gives a crap about passing records. Anyone thinking option B must value "passing records" over team achievement!

The ultimate goal is to win the SB. Not Drew, not a person, but the team. If we're better suited to do that w/ Drew, Moulds, Henry, or any individual or combination of individuals out, then fine! Why should that upset anyone.

Again, I think in many fans' minds, this is the "Bledsoe Bills", not the Buffalo Bills!

IMO we'd be better w/o Drew in there period! He simply makes too many mistakes, can't beat the better teams, and just isn't the kind of QB you can count on to not make a ton of critical errors in the playoffs and should we ever reach the Super Bowl. If we ever won a SB, it would be in spite of Drew, not b/c of him!

I think many QBs could replace him and we'd be better. We might not have all the passing records, but IMO we'd be better as a team, more effective in putting the ball in the EZ, and thus scoring more points than the paltry 17.8 this lazy-assed O amassed for most of the latter part of last season under Drew.

So in that regard, if we're a better team w/o him, then why does it matter why he doesn't start. This will all become more clear as this season progresses. ;)

BillsOwnAll

08-22-2003, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Wys Guy

He'd have tried and failed in N.E. only to have been replaced by Brady who's already outdone Bledsoe's best in terms of both team and individual performances.

Wys you make me laugh! all brady does is throw Screen passes....he tried to scramble and gets HAMMERED.

08-22-2003, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by BillsOwnAll
Wys you make me laugh! all brady does is throw Screen passes....he tried to scramble and gets HAMMERED.

He won a SB and has exceeded Drew's best season ever!!!

HELLO!!

Pull your head outta that melon and smell some daylight. Give it a rest already! We know you love Drew more than you love the Bills, but this is getting REALLY old!

You wanna know what Brady did that Drew didn't do in the SB and playoffs?

He didn't toss tons of INTs, twice as many as TDs in fact, and he didn't make stupid mistakes to prevent his team from winning.

Who cares if he throws short passes! If Drew could throw those same short passes the way that Brady does, then perhaps we'd have won the division last year and advanced. Perhaps we'd have an offense that on paper should be scoring at least 28 PPG scoring less than 18 PPG for the majority of last season, particularly that latter greater portion!

08-22-2003, 09:12 AM

BOA,

BTW, you don't watch Brady much, do ya?

He doesn't throw nearly as many screen passes as you said. He's got a great OTM arm. That's why guys like Brown have been so incredibly more successful under Brady than under Drew!

clumping platelets

08-22-2003, 09:20 AM

WIN SUPER BOWL!!

THATHURMANATOR

08-22-2003, 09:36 AM

How can you not pick option 1.

justasportsfan

08-22-2003, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
BOA,

BTW, you don't watch Brady much, do ya?

He doesn't throw nearly as many screen passes as you said. He's got a great OTM arm. That's why guys like Brown have been so incredibly more successful under Brady than under Drew!

He only throws those screen passes against the D's that can't handle it like the bills last year.

EricStratton

08-22-2003, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by justasportsfan

He only throws those screen passes against the D's that can't handle it like the bills last year.

It doesn't matter if he only throws up.

He was on the winning team when the trophy was raised, as fans of a team thats all that matters.

Novacane

08-22-2003, 09:41 AM

I don't care if Bledsoe die's if we can win a SB!

:jk: But I still take option A

Buffatexas

08-22-2003, 11:13 AM

I would take the SB win....and for Wys to stop blaming Drew for everything. if madden breaks wind in the booth, it is all because Drew threw a pick and it made madden's stomach upset. STOP THE DREW BASHING PLEASE!!!

The_Philster

08-22-2003, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by THATHURMANATOR
How can you not pick option 1.

Good question. Should have made it a poll....with a landslide victory for option 1

imbondz

08-22-2003, 05:17 PM

i can't believe most people would wish serious injury on someone to win the sb. :shakeno:
Originally posted by bernielivsey_1
I dont care if T. Brown is our QB as long as we win a SB.

Originally posted by EricStratton
As long as he doesn't die (or become permantly disabled) I'd take the SB.

Wishing death on someone (other than a Fish fan) for a SB seems harsh.

Originally posted by Throne Logic
SB win.

Originally posted by Wys Guy
First of all, we have no control over this, so it's not like fan opinion can drive an injury to replace a starter.

But I would say this, that if option A happened, then it surely wouldn't say much for Drew now, would it!

He'd have tried and failed in N.E. only to have been replaced by Brady who's already outdone Bledsoe's best in terms of both team and individual performances.

If the same happened here, then why would anyone care if Bledsoe's career ended. Some of the responses here seem to indicate that some would rather see the team led by Drew regardless of possible outcomes under different QBs regardless of who they are!

On option two, again, just as last year, since "passing records" are not equivalent to points or scoring records, I say who gives a crap about passing records. Anyone thinking option B must value "passing records" over team achievement!

The ultimate goal is to win the SB. Not Drew, not a person, but the team. If we're better suited to do that w/ Drew, Moulds, Henry, or any individual or combination of individuals out, then fine! Why should that upset anyone.

Again, I think in many fans' minds, this is the "Bledsoe Bills", not the Buffalo Bills!

IMO we'd be better w/o Drew in there period! He simply makes too many mistakes, can't beat the better teams, and just isn't the kind of QB you can count on to not make a ton of critical errors in the playoffs and should we ever reach the Super Bowl. If we ever won a SB, it would be in spite of Drew, not b/c of him!

I think many QBs could replace him and we'd be better. We might not have all the passing records, but IMO we'd be better as a team, more effective in putting the ball in the EZ, and thus scoring more points than the paltry 17.8 this lazy-assed O amassed for most of the latter part of last season under Drew.

So in that regard, if we're a better team w/o him, then why does it matter why he doesn't start. This will all become more clear as this season progresses. ;)

Originally posted by clumping platelets
WIN SUPER BOWL!!

Originally posted by THATHURMANATOR
How can you not pick option 1.

Originally posted by Fairway To Green
I don't care if Bledsoe die's if we can win a SB!

:jk: But I still take option A

Originally posted by Buffatexas
I would take the SB win....and for Wys to stop blaming Drew for everything. if madden breaks wind in the booth, it is all because Drew threw a pick and it made madden's stomach upset. STOP THE DREW BASHING PLEASE!!!

Originally posted by The_Philster
Good question. Should have made it a poll....with a landslide victory for option 1

i can't believe most people would wish serious injury on someone to win the sb. :shakeno:

BillsFever

08-22-2003, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by imbondz
i can't believe most people would wish serious injury on someone to win the sb. :shakeno:

i can't believe most people would wish serious injury on someone to win the sb. :shakeno:

I would :bravo:

TypicalBill

08-22-2003, 06:04 PM

so your question is Bledsoe or Superbowl..?

i like Bledsoe, he's our starting QB and we wouldn't have won 8 games last year with our D..

with that said.... id pick a superbowl win anyday... he's not my brother or anything.. i support the Buffalo Bills not Bledsoe .. i like him cuz he's a part of the organisation.. nothing more.

socalfan

08-22-2003, 06:18 PM

I think even Drew would choose option #1. And having watched the Bills go to the dance 4 times and not come home with the trophy, I say show me the trophy!

Mad Bomber

08-22-2003, 06:55 PM

imbondz

08-22-2003, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by Mad Bomber
I definitely do NOT want to see Drew go out with a career ending injury.

I would love to see Drew have a career year (if only to see what Wys had to say).

I would most like to see the Billls lead the NFL in rushing and defense.

Add to that a special teams unit that DNS (does not SUCK) and we should be OK

I agree 100%

Historian

08-23-2003, 06:05 AM

Originally posted by Wys Guy

Pull your head outta that melon and smell some daylight.

Now THAT'S funny!!!!!

I just want to see them win one Super Bowl before I die...or before they move the team.

Just one.

08-23-2003, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by THATHURMANATOR
How can you not pick option 1.

It's not an option for me TT. I have to walk on eggshells.

See, if I choose option 1 openly, then I'm not a Bills Fan! :D

08-23-2003, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Fairway To Green
I don't care if Bledsoe die's if we can win a SB!

:jk: But I still take option A

One way or another, we're not gonna win one w/ him under center unless we get blessed by having the 5th or 6th seed advance and it just so happens that Drew plays one of his very rare good games against a decent team.

That is of course if we even get thru the gauntlet for the same reasons to even get to the SB.

casdhf

08-23-2003, 10:24 AM

Brady has a great arm?

08-23-2003, 10:53 AM

Yes!

He can throw the deep ball in spite of everyone saying to the contrary.

Yet another example of just b/c Bills fans rant about it does not make it true!

Same w/ Fiedler!

Brady in fact won the "deep throw" competition at that latest QB challenge thing and he was both the most consistent and the best deep ball thrower, I think he won, in the contest. If he lost, it was by only a yard. There were some good "arm" QBs there.

The Pats simply don't rely on the deep ball. Neither do any other teams that have deep armed QBs. Only in Buffalo are "we" firm believers that you can win games by the "deep throw big play." It's sad, really really sad that that's the way we approach our game.

Supposedly that's gonna change this year. If it does, we'll see tremendous success providing that Drew can run that O well. A big question mark at this point certainly w/ no validation of that in PS thus far.

Again cas, if you're gonna have a fair short game (i.e. high percentage, or what should be) and a great deep game, or a fair deep game and a great short/medium game, you're far better off w/ the latter in this league.

Teams like St. Louis, yes, they have great deep games. But the meat-and-potatoes of their O is the short/high-percentage game w/ short to medium tosses and tosses to Faulk/RBs.

If you can spread the field in that manner, your deep game will be much more effective. Most of Drew's INTs last year were well within 20 yards of the LoS! NOT deep balls.

A deep passing game simply can't be relied on! Nor should it be as we did last year. It's completely bumbling!

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 11:05 AM

Wys, Brady is a very accurate passer but NOT a deep ball QB ... dont judge him by a contest where QB's have fun in..i remember a couple of months back, Ingtar had a stat where Brady had awful numbers when he went downfield... he's a good short/medium throws.. but please dont say that he's a good deep ball QB cuz he obviously isn't.

Thank you :D

08-23-2003, 11:13 AM

In fact cas, here are the distances in yards beyond the line-of-scrimmage (YBLS) that Drew's passes were picked:

Jets:

12 YBLS
4 YBLS

Oakland:

14 YBLS
8 YBLS (TD)
3 YBLS (RZ)

N.E.:

1 YBLS (EZ)

K.C.

37 YBLS

Jets:

14 YBLS
8 YBLS

N.E.:

-10 Y behind LS
1 (EZ)
4 YBLS
18 YBLS

G.B.:

4 (EZ)
13 YBLS

You raised a good point. But it seems that the perception is that many of those are on the "deep ball" which simply isn't the case. That's why I rate Drew as one of the top deep ball passers, but next to useless in the most important aspect of the passing game otherwise.

BTW, the average distance for all of Drew's picks last year in terms of where the pick was made beyond the LoS as mentioned above is less than 10 yards deep. Only one was beyond 20 yards.

08-23-2003, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
Wys, Brady is a very accurate passer but NOT a deep ball QB ... dont judge him by a contest where QB's have fun in..i remember a couple of months back, Ingtar had a stat where Brady had awful numbers when he went downfield... he's a good short/medium throws.. but please dont say that he's a good deep ball QB cuz he obviously isn't.

Thank you :D

Well, facts speak louder than opinions, so I guess you two are gonna have to reconsider your points:

Here are Brady's downfield numbers:

Brady's Splits (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?statsId=5228)

Here are Drew's:

Drew's Splits (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?statsId=2359)

Scroll down to the "PASS THROWN" Section, 7th from the bottom!

Check it out!

There's little difference between the %s between Drew and Brady, certainly nothing significant! What does that tell you.

The only real difference is that beyond 41 yards Brady was 0-for-9 while Drew was 3-for-10. Big deal! Anyone thinking that those 3 passes on the year were the "big difference" is foolin' themself.

But to summarize:

Brady:

Behind LoS: 73.4%, 5.77 YPA, 5 TDs, 0 INTs
1-10: 70.8 %, 5.77 YPA, 14 TDs, 4 INTs
11-20: 49.5%, 9.52 YPA, 7 TDs, 5 INTs
21-30: 21.4%, 6.00 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INTs
31-40: 17.6%, 6.88 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT
41+: 0-of-9/ 0%, 0, 0, 1 INT

Bledsoe:

Behind LoS: 67.9%, 3.92 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
1-10: 70.3%, 6.25 YPA, 13 TDs, 8 INTs
11-20: 50.4%, 9.61 YPA, 4 TDs, 5 INTs
21-30: 28.6%, 10.00 YPA, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
31-40: 18.8%, 9.81 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
41+: 3-of-10/ 30%, 1 TD, 0 INTs

Now, if you look at that, also look at the detail in the last 3 categories; you'll note that Drew only completed 18 passes all year where the ball was caught beyond the 20. Brady completed even fewer w/ only 9.

So I think it's safe to assume that the "meat-and-potatoes" of the passing game is passes thrown less than 20 yards, first of all.

Second of all, the difference in the efficiency between the two from 31-40 is negligable. It's only nominal in the 21-30 category. Between the two, only 19 passes between them were pitched over 40, w/ only 3 completions, all three beloning to Drew. So I also don't think that's even worth bringing up.

As well, consider the WR talent on both teams. Moulds and Price were very clearly much more "deep ball" types of WRs than Brown, Patten, and Branch were. We had Henry vice Smith, 'nuff said there! Even if teams weren't worried about Henry b/c of play-calling, I assure you that none of them had actually game-planned so as to defend against Smith. So you need to take that into consideration as well. When you do, the difference becomes even less meaningful when comparing the two QBs.

Now, look at the other stats! This is where well over 90% of the passing game is won or lost, and unfortunately Brady outshines Drew.

So there it is, no, I don't see some enormous difference in their deep games, certainly not one that makes you say, "WOW, what a difference!"

Throw in the fact that in the first three categories, where both QBs threw the vast majority of their passes, Brady tossed 26 TDs to only 9 INTs, whereas Drew tossed only 18 TDs yet 14 INTs. That's a very sizeable discrepancy in the play between the two. Brady touts a nearly 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio where Drew barely has his head above water at not even 1.3-to-1.

Brady's first three categories exceed Drew's all around.

That's why Brady is a better QB than Drew! It's evident in his aggregate and split stats in his short time in the league. Combine that w/ the fact that he was able to do w/ the talent at N.E. what Drew has never been able to do.

Cordially! :)

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 11:54 AM

Bledsoe:

21-30: 28.6%, 10.00 YPA, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
31-40: 18.8%, 9.81 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
41+: 3-of-10/ 30%, 1 TD, 0 INTs

Brady:

21-30: 21.4%, 6.00 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INTs
31-40: 17.6%, 6.88 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT
41+: 0-of-9/ 0%, 0, 0, 1 INT

you said it yourself... thats all i wanted to point out... Brady 0-9 40+ ... that doesn't = good deep throw QB

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 11:57 AM

Bledsoe

21+ yards ( 5TD - 1 INT )

Brady

21+ yards ( 1TD - 4 INT )

very clear ;) .... But with that said, NE doesn't want the deep ball and thats why Brady suits them better.. they work short passes and screens.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 11:58 AM

and in conclusion, Brady is awful at deep throws :D

08-23-2003, 12:09 PM

And 3-of-10 is gonna be "the difference" every season for us that we should be giving up in the short game?

Doesn't make sense. 3 completions have to be considered completely insignificant given all of Drew's other shortcomings, and frankly, even by themselves, if we're holdin' on to 3 passes each season as to why we keep Drew around, then I have to really question TD.

As I pointed out, the other two categories, 31-40 and 21-30 are also considered part of the "deep game" and there's precious little difference there.

So I suppose, if we're talking about handful of passes, likely most of which were desparation tosses for Brady, and given that Drew had such an enormous advantage over Brady in "deep talent" for WRs, I'd stand by my points and say it's not even worth debating.

0-of-9 v. 3-of-10 there is so insignificant that it's a non-factor.

08-23-2003, 12:15 PM

No matter how you slice it, I don't think it spells out some enormous performance advantage that we have.

BTW, one of those 3-of-10 completions was the toss to Moulds in the first Fin game where the coverage, Madison, lost the play and Moulds was wide open. Brady or any other QB would have done the same. So that really boils this down to those other 2 tosses. It gets even less significant.

Yet, many will harp on it as if it's some sort of factor. That's my main point BTW. That it's the short passing game, where Drew really is below average, that defines and determines the success and effectiveness of the passing game.

Yet as well, it's something that there's a large state of denial on over here in Bills Land.

08-23-2003, 12:16 PM

Can we at least agree that this "deep game" theory is way overblown and not nearly as significant as the media and team would have us believe?

B/c the bottom line of the entire thing is that Drew really only is better, and only marginally so on passes launched over 40 yards, which rarely happens as you can see, somewhere on the order of magnitude of once every other game.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 12:16 PM

the more important thing for me WYS, is that the deep ball was pretty effective 5 TD's with 1 INT ... that shows that he is accurate on deep throws and much better than Brady. BUT Brady is a more accurate short throw passer.

im not disputing that.. what im disputing is the fact that you said Brady is a good deep throw passer and i wanted to know what you based that on.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Can we at least agree that this "deep game" theory is way overblown and not nearly as significant as the media and team would have us believe?

YES! short passes that are accurate are more important for me.. so we do agree on that.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill

im not disputing that.. what im disputing is the fact that you said Brady is a good deep throw passer and i wanted to know what you based that on.

so?..may i know? :gnight:

imbondz

08-23-2003, 12:30 PM

I think that Bledsoe's lesser numbers on short balls thrown compared to Brady has more to do with the O-line rather than his accuracy. You can't tell me that Brady is more accurate of a passer inside 20 yards than Bledsoe is. I just don't buy that. But, I do believe that the Pats O-line protects better and gives Brady more opportunity to make the sharper pass. Thus the stat differences last year.

08-23-2003, 12:41 PM

Perhaps I misspoke or didn't make myself completely clear. What I meant about Brady is that he's quite a capable deep ball tosser. He's got the arm strength, as he proved that at the recent competition tossing, more accurately than any other QB participating BTW, several ~ 60-yard tosses. Garcia was there too and didn't perform as well along w/ some very good others.

You simply don't need more than a 60 yard deep ball, if even that, as I'm sure Drew's weren't 60+ yards on the fly either. That one to Moulds in Miami he caught around the 20 if I remember correctly and it was a ~ 70-yard TD, so 50 on-the-fly or so.

The problem w/ those very few stats in that 40+ category is that they're so few that who knows why they were the way they were. Were they "hail-mary's", were they impossible last ditch tosses, what? We don't know, so w/o looking at the details, making an assessment on 3 completions and only 19 attempts, for both QBs, not just Brady, doesn't make much sense.

What also doesn't make sense is saying that Drew's 5 "long TDs" were differences. What if he tossed a long ball in those games but completely crapped out in the short game throwing 3 INTs and costing us points and setting up the other team.

I'll do some brief research to see what the "game situations" were for those 5 TDs and see if they somehow didn't balance out as I suspect they did w/ poor play elsewhere.

In that Miami game for example, Drew did nothing other than that long toss to Moulds. 14-of-30 for 112 otherwise. The success of the play had more to do w/ Madison's mistake than w/ Drew's prowess. As I said, 90% of pro NFL QBs would have made the same exact toss.

What makes complete sense however is that you only throw the deep ball, at least of the 41-yard variety, if you absolutely have to. If you find yourself needing to throw deep balls like that, the better thing to do is ask yourself why, why are those situations popping up?

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 12:47 PM

Perhaps I misspoke

Thank you

also, i dont really look at QB competitions as a base to judge the deep throw of a thrower .. you simply cant.. you have to have game time conditions around you.

what i know is .. Brady's 2002 stats were 0/9 on deep throws , and no matter how you slice it, it still sucks. Even without looking at the TD's and INT's if you like..

he didn't complete 1 deep throw all year .. that means he's NOT a good deep field thrower.

thats all i wanted to point out... thanks for your patience.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 12:48 PM

BTW, :)

08-23-2003, 12:53 PM

Those 5 deep balls:

Minnesota: O/T

In that game, Drew had been 33-of-47 in regulation for 387 and only 2 TDs to go w/ all those yards. It's not like Minnesota has any defense at all worth mentioning! Yet, our O managed to put up only 23 points against such a scrub D. So while the deep ball won the game for us, if Drew had been able to convert one of those FG drives into a TD, then the game never would have been in O/T. And go take a look at why we stalled on several of those drives. Hint: It wasn't b/c of Henry...

...BRB...

08-23-2003, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
BTW, :)

Indeed!

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 12:57 PM

ROFL!! im talking about you naming Brady a "good deep ball thrower" when he 0/9 at them... not Bledsoe's throws at each game..

LOL, WYS, you dont need to go throw the records on each of Bledsoe's throws :ill:...... again

08-23-2003, 12:59 PM

But here's something really interesting:

Apparently, those stats in the pages, are not even yards on the fly!

That renders them even more worthless.

B/c of Drew's only 40+ yard TDs, only the two above were actually tossed that far. The others, 1 in the Detroit game, and the other two in the Miami game, #2, were 38, 29, and 14 yards.

So they really don't even have to do w/ the arm of the QB. Which also means that of Drew's longest TDs, the three longest, on-the-fly, was that ~ 50 yard strike to Moulds in the air, the Minnesota one to Price, which I believe was over 40 as well, and then the the 38-yarder on the fly to Moulds in the second Miami game.

So I'm really startin' to see less of a difference the more we learn.

It's amazing what you learn after looking around in some detail. Not tryin' to be smart, but seroiusly.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:04 PM

yup, and you'll find out that VERY few QB's throw 5 + TD that are thrown for 40+ yards in the air... it doesn't work that way... when you throw a 30 yarder and the receiver runs for an extra 10 yards .. you call it a 40 yard throw, thats an nfl thing, not mine.

But i just cant beleive you named Brady a good deep ball thrower when he never completed any of them.. thats what im debating.. i like what you say, i agree with you a lot of times because you support things with numbers.. but here , when you said Brady is a good deep ball thrower.. not even numbers support that statement so i was shocked that you said it and wondered if you had any stats that would back it up.

all i want from you is stats that Brady is = or better than Drew in the long passes and ill go away :D

08-23-2003, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
ROFL!! im talking about you naming Brady a "good deep ball thrower" when he 0/9 at them... not Bledsoe's throws at each game..

LOL, WYS, you dont need to go throw the records on each of Bledsoe's throws :ill:...... again

That was on balls thrown over 40 yards, right!

Drew threw 1 (one) TD on a pass over 40 yards. Must have been that Miami pitch to Moulds that we already know was more a product of a breakdown in the defense than it was anything else.

Brady's perfectly capable of throwing passes in the 30s range. To view it otherwise is not to know Brady well. I think a good chunk of the reason why he doesn't throw as deep as often has little to do w/ skill than need. The Pats don't need b/c they can move the ball otherwise. We struggle to move the ball often, so deep throws, given that Drew's better at those than the short game, means we try them more often. But it's out of necessity. Again, that's not good.

Either way, doing this little exercise has simply shown that the deep ball is far less productive than even I thought. I say "productive", I mean in terms of leading to scores/points. For yardage apart from scoring measures I'm sure it's just grand. :D

08-23-2003, 01:09 PM

Bottom line:

Our deep game is incredibly overblown and overrated.

The lack of a solid and effective short passing game hurts us far more than possessing a seldom used or seldom productive deep game helps us!

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill

all i want from you is stats that Brady is = or better than Drew in the long passes and ill go away :D

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Bottom line:

Our deep game is incredibly overblown and overrated.

The lack of a solid and effective short passing game hurts us far more than possessing a seldom used or seldom productive deep game helps us!

i know, im not crazy about the deep bowl either, thats not what im debating.. i told you this earlier..

i just wanna know how Brady is a Good deep bowl thrower?

:D

08-23-2003, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
yup, and you'll find out that VERY few QB's throw 5 + TD that are thrown for 40+ yards in the air... it doesn't work that way... when you throw a 30 yarder and the receiver runs for an extra 10 yards .. you call it a 40 yard throw, thats an nfl thing, not mine.

But i just cant beleive you named Brady a good deep ball thrower when he never completed any of them.. thats what im debating.. i like what you say, i agree with you a lot of times because you support things with numbers.. but here , when you said Brady is a good deep ball thrower.. not even numbers support that statement so i was shocked that you said it and wondered if you had any stats that would back it up.

all i want from you is stats that Brady is = or better than Drew in the long passes and ill go away :D

Again, on tosses over 40 yards, Brady was 0-for-9, right?

Well, Drew was 1-for-8!!!

WTH's the difference? B/c 2 of his 3 completions we just determined weren't even over 40 yards. That excludes those.

You can't blame Brady b/c his WRs didn't have Price's or Moulds' speed, or can you? :rolleyes:

1-for-8 w/ Moulds/Price/Reed

0-for-9 w/ Brown/Patten/Branch

:rolleyes:

Completely insignificant and not even proof that Drew's deep balls, solely based on one broken defensive play in an otherwise extremely mediocre game for a QB certainly doesn't scream out "massive difference" here.

Does it?

Novacane

08-23-2003, 01:14 PM

Ok........TB and Wys go to your corners

08-23-2003, 01:15 PM

In fact, other than on "broken defensive plays" it only screams out that all of Drew's throws for over 40 yards were just as ineffective as Brady's, no?

08-23-2003, 01:15 PM

:popcorn:

:D

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:16 PM

ROFL!!!! and the truth shall set you free!!!!

are you implying that Brady is a bad deep ball thrower?

08-23-2003, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill

i know, im not crazy about the deep bowl either, thats not what im debating.. i told you this earlier..

i just wanna know how Brady is a Good deep bowl thrower?

:D

I said he's "capable."

0-for-9: Brady

1-for-8: Bledsoe

Both on balls launched beyond 40 on-the-fly.

Again, since Drew's only completion was the Madison bumbling in the first Fin game leaving a streaking Moulds wide open (20+ yards) downfield, 0-for-7 otherwise, ...

...I just wanna know why you think Drew's that much better than Brady?

I don't get it! Why, b/c he's a Bill and Brady's not? Or does one single pass make all that difference?

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:18 PM

thats all i wanna know... isn't he a BAD deep ball thrower?

lets get Bledsoe out of the way here... im only talking about Brady.. is he a good deep ball thrower..

please dont change the subject and answer my post .. please, please, please :pray:

08-23-2003, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Fairway To Green
Ok........TB and Wys go to your corners

We're having a moment FtG!!!

Lock the door on your way out, would ya...

:D

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:20 PM

yeah, get the :madcurse: out of here FTG

:D

08-23-2003, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
thats all i wanna know... isn't he a BAD deep ball thrower?

lets get Bledsoe out of the way here... im only talking about Brady.. is he a good deep ball thrower..

please dont change the subject and answer my post .. please, please, please :pray:

"Is Brady a bad deep ball thrower?"

MO: No. He's not bad, he's very, very capable. He's proven he has the arm. If tossing extremel accurately 60 yards on the fly, far more accurately than numerous other NFL QBs on the same day doesn't demonstrate the range capability, then I don't know what does.

Statistically speaking, other than a single throw on a broken play last year by Drew, the statistical difference between Brady and Bledsoe on balls thrown beyond 40 yards, according to the ESPN splits, is ZERO!

So if Drew is a better deep ball thrower, then he sure didn't prove it based on what happened last season.

Although, I will tell you that Drew is better at the deep ball. That doesn't negate the notion that Brady can do it if called upon.

Does that clear things up a bit?

I answered your question.

OK, now you answer mine;

Was Drew's "deep ball" effectiveness something that won us more games than the shortcomings in the other aspects of his game lost us games?

Novacane

08-23-2003, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
yeah, get the :madcurse: out of here FTG

:D

Geez................one little ticket and you turn into a :firehead: :D

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:33 PM

not just yet, ill answer your question when you answer mine properly. ;)

No. He's not bad, he's very, very capable. He's proven he has the arm. If tossing extremel accurately 60 yards on the fly, far more accurately than numerous other NFL QBs on the same day doesn't demonstrate the range capability, then I don't know what does.

im tellin' ya WYS, if you base your analysis on throwing competions in a field where they're standing and one of them has a beer right after a throw, then you're in deep trouble my man.

you wanna know what does? its gametime baby, nothing like gametime where you know theres a pass rusher coming after you.

That doesn't negate the notion that Brady can do it if called upon

now this is what im talking about, how would you know that?? have you seen him do it?? this is personal opinion where feelings are involved and that doesn't work :D

its like saying a rookie 1st RD running back will succeed in the nfl and break long runs when you've never seen him do it.. its a feeling .. i wanna see stats that say he's a good deep ball thrower... or better yet, average.

if you do, ill put in my sig whatever you want ;) hows that :D

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:34 PM

that probably was my longest post ever :bravo:

imbondz

08-23-2003, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
that probably was my longest post ever :bravo:

:rofl:

08-23-2003, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by Fairway To Green

Geez................one little ticket and you turn into a :firehead: :D

LMAO...

A parking ticket no less!

Note to rest of staff: Lock the doors if TB ever gets a moving ticket!!!

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
LMAO...

A parking ticket no less!

Note to rest of staff: Lock the doors if TB ever gets a moving ticket!!!

:ontome:

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by Fairway To Green
Geez................one little ticket and you turn into a :firehead: :D

:rofl: i didn't read this earlier ... i was :jk: .. im sure ya know.

08-23-2003, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
not just yet, ill answer your question when you answer mine properly. ;)

im tellin' ya WYS, if you base your analysis on throwing competions in a field where they're standing and one of them has a beer right after a throw, then you're in deep trouble my man.

you wanna know what does? its gametime baby, nothing like gametime where you know theres a pass rusher coming after you.

now this is what im talking about, how would you know that?? have you seen him do it?? this is personal opinion where feelings are involved and that doesn't work :D

its like saying a rookie 1st RD running back will succeed in the nfl and break long runs when you've never seen him do it.. its a feeling .. i wanna see stats that say he's a good deep ball thrower... or better yet, average.

if you do, ill put in my sig whatever you want ;) hows that :D

Look, I did answer your question. What, do you think I have a downlink in my head to replay games.

Since a 34 yd. TD pass in the stats is unknown whether it was caught at 5 and run for 29 or caught at 34, it's difficult to offer the kind of proof that you seek.

What we know: He has the arm strength!

I guess that and my having seen him play tell me that he's capable of making a deep throw. Does he do it w/ perfection? No! Did Drew? Certainly not either.

IDK what else to tell you. Sounds like the only thing you'll accept is video proof.

But it's neither here nor there anyway. This entire thing evolved in that you compared Drew to Brady. The only concrete piece of evidence we have as a fact is that ...

Brady was 0-for-9 on throws over 40 yards and that...

Drew was 1-for-8 on those same throws, w/ the only completion coming on a 70 yard TD to Moulds w/o a defender anywhere near Moulds and w/ ZERO pressure on Drew and in a game where Drew was below average otherwise.

So I'm simply challening your notion that the deep game provided such a good edge for us when in fact, both QBs were about equal on balls thrown over 40 yards. One catch on a play where the WR was undefended separates the two in terms of effectiveness and performance.

Now, if you want to define the "deep ball" as throws that were in the 20-39 yard range, that's fine. But then there's again, little difference in the stats, as well, w/o knowing which balls were actually thrown that far or which ones were caught short and had YAC. But to that point, the deltas were not significant.

That's the best that I can offer for "proof" w/o video footage that I don't have.

Now, answer my question...

08-23-2003, 02:03 PM

If anything, this debate should be a prime indicator as to how irrelevant the "deep ball" is to a team's success.

I mean from 20+ yards, you're talking about 18 completed throws here for Drew. Do you really believe that if he had a good short game, that it wouldn't be much more important than a single throw per game on average? Completions that is. The rest of the attempts were incomplete passes, which is why they don't call those "high percentage" passes. B/c they're low percentage, usually resulting in incompletions.

A deep game is great if you have one, but it's unnecessary if you don't, although, you do need a QB who at least has the arm to toss it over 50 on the fly. That was Kelly's problem the last bunch of years. He could barely throw over 40 yards on the fly and at some point DBs wouldn't even backpedal b/c they knew he couldn't get the ball there.

It's also a nice compliment to a good short-medium game, but no substitute for one.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:15 PM

Sounds like the only thing you'll accept is video proof.

i want one long 40+ yard completion, i dont want anything... just show me he completed one.

Drew was 1-for-8 on those same throws, w/ the only completion coming on a 70 yard TD to Moulds w/o a defender anywhere near Moulds and w/ ZERO pressure on Drew and in a game where Drew was below average otherwise

WT????? you posted the stat below yourself... you cant make your own stat.. the stats below are nfl stats.

Originally posted by Wys Guy

Bledsoe:

Behind LoS: 67.9%, 3.92 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
1-10: 70.3%, 6.25 YPA, 13 TDs, 8 INTs
11-20: 50.4%, 9.61 YPA, 4 TDs, 5 INTs
21-30: 28.6%, 10.00 YPA, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
31-40: 18.8%, 9.81 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
41+: 3-of-10/ 30%, 1 TD, 0 INTs

So I'm simply challening your notion that the deep game provided such a good edge for us

look below ;)

Originally posted by TypicalBill

YES! short passes that are accurate are more important for me.. so we do agree on that.

when i talked about the TD's that Drew threw, i wanted to show you that he's better than Brady in Deep throws... i didn't say Drew is the God of deep throws, i said he was better than Brady :D

Now, if you want to define the "deep ball" as throws that were in the 20-39 yard range, that's fine. But then there's again, little difference in the stats, as well

since you had to get into that.... how could you even compare??? 5TD-1INT = 1TD-4INT ???? that doesn't make sense at all WYS, you just showed me something strange there.. how could it possibly be close????

with all that said .. im also gonna go ahead and answer your question too.. see, i like answering questions without going around them.. i wont ignore your questions (BTW, you better buy me a beer (root) if i ever come there... im having trouble reading your posts :eek: too long bro )

your question:
"Was Drew's "deep ball" effectiveness something that won us more games than the shortcomings in the other aspects of his game lost us games?"

i said it to you once and ill repeat it again, i DONT like Drew's short throws... because he takes too much time with them and when you wanna throw a short , its 1,2,3 pass ...... or 1,2,3,4,5 pass..he holds on too long with those throws.

with that said, he completed a huge throw against the bears in overtime to place Henry in a position where he ran it for the winning TD.

He throw another one in overtime (Vikings game) and we won.

im not crazy about Drew, I love the Bills .... i think Gilbride sucks... what else :scratch:

i think thats it!

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:15 PM

OMG did i just do that :eek:

WYS, you're giving me bad habits :madcurse:

thats 2 long posts in one thread .. Damn!

08-23-2003, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
i want one long 40+ yard completion, i dont want anything... just show me he completed one.

Drew only threw one!

:huh:

How do I find out?????????????????????????????

I didn't spend last season watching PATS football and I don't have a photographic memory in technicolor!

If you cand find a place for me to find out how deep every throw was on the fly, then perhaps it's possible.

But, according to the stats that I posted, he tossed 9 balls over 40 yards, but none were complete!

How does this really contrast that much w/ Drew who launched 8 w/ only 1 completion, a lucky one at that?

I can agree w/ you that he didn't throw the long ball, which I freely do and did, but that doesn't mean that HE CAN'T anymore than Drew not having done it in one single instance only because of a defensive breakdown leaving a man WIDE OPEN deep proves that he can!

If you want proof that Brady can throw the ball in the air for more than 40 yards, IDK what else I can do other than to defer you to the competition.

Facts: Brady's arm is strong enough to launch it about 60 yards +/- 1yd.

BTW, how much further do you think Drew can toss it? I don't think he can hit 70 on the fly!

I think you're being more than a bit ridiculous in your positions here. You're asking for proof of something that didn't occur and using the condition of "non-occurrence" to suggest that it cannot occur when in fact there's proof that all the ingredients are there to make it occur.

Makes absolutely no sense!

Buczilla

08-23-2003, 02:29 PM

Why would you wish injury on anyone... much less YOUR OWN PLAYER.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:34 PM

I think you're being more than a bit ridiculous in your positions here. You're asking for proof of something that didn't occur and using the condition of "non-occurrence" to suggest that it cannot occur when in fact there's proof that all the ingredients are there to make it occur.

thats exactly what ive been trying to tell you, you cant say he's accurate in his deep throws if he didn't do it, you cant say he's not either.... but until he does, i wont assume he could.. thats all im saying. "Brady is a good deep ball thrower" is inaccurate to say... until he actually does it, you cant say that. He could very well do it... but since he didn't, i wont say he could.

I can say that Chad Pennington is an awesome deep ball thrower.. but until he does it, i wouldn't be able to do that, would i?? i can say that Morris Green would florish as a RB and he'd blow by everyone... but how would i know that until he tries it??

Brady did... 9 times and never completed 1 :chuckle:

that other part is rediculous.... i can get you someone that doesn't know what football is and he will be able to throw it 60+ yards..he has a powerful arm but it wont be accurate would it?? so would that mean that he's a great deep bowl thrower?? i guess in your book :laughter:

08-23-2003, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
WT????? you posted the stat below yourself... you cant make your own stat.. the stats below are nfl stats.

Originally posted by Wys Guy

Bledsoe:

Behind LoS: 67.9%, 3.92 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
1-10: 70.3%, 6.25 YPA, 13 TDs, 8 INTs
11-20: 50.4%, 9.61 YPA, 4 TDs, 5 INTs
21-30: 28.6%, 10.00 YPA, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
31-40: 18.8%, 9.81 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
41+: 3-of-10/ 30%, 1 TD, 0 INTs

It's confusing, and I think you may be correct here. I think I misread those stats.

Either way, we're talking 3 throws here. It doesn't make a difference, especially when you get away from the fact that Drew's efficiency where he makes hundreds of throws isn't good.

It also doens't prove that Brady can't go deep.

How about this, how many times would Drew go deep w/ Brown, Patten, and Branch and how many times would Brady have gone deep w/ Moulds, Price, and Reed.

You seem to categorically discount the weapons at Drew's disposal. For years I've had to listen to the drivel about "Drew not having any tools", then when he has the best in the league, he underperforms when he didn't have them. Can't be the OL b/c we've been told that he didn't have a good OL in N.E.

IMO the WRs made more the difference in attempts downfield than either QB did.

08-23-2003, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
thats exactly what ive been trying to tell you, you cant say he's accurate in his deep throws if he didn't do it, you cant say he's not either.... but until he does, i wont assume he could..

But even tho "...if he didn't do it, you can't say he's not either...", you'll assume that he can't, right?

Because this entire conversation is predicated on your remark that Brady can't throw deep!

So please clue me in as to the above then!

Perhaps you mispoke earlier, eh....

;)

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
It's confusing, and I think you may be correct here. I think I misread those stats.

:up:

08-23-2003, 02:39 PM

Your original statement:

Originally posted by TypicalBill
Wys, Brady is a very accurate passer but NOT a deep ball QB ... dont judge him by a contest where QB's have fun in..i remember a couple of months back, Ingtar had a stat where Brady had awful numbers when he went downfield... he's a good short/medium throws.. but please dont say that he's a good deep ball QB cuz he obviously isn't.

Thank you :D

So I guess you take that back then, b/c there's a clear discrepancy between that post and your last one...

Originally posted by TypicalBill
thats exactly what ive been trying to tell you, you cant say he's accurate in his deep throws if he didn't do it, you cant say he's not either.... but until he does, i wont assume he could.. thats all im saying. "Brady is a good deep ball thrower" is inaccurate to say... until he actually does it, you cant say that. He could very well do it... but since he didn't, i wont say he could.

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Your original statement:

So I guess you take that back then, b/c there's a clear discrepancy between that post and your last one...

What part bud??

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:47 PM

yes!! im very sorry , I wanted to explain clearly but my English vocabulary isn't very deep (Its not my 1st language)

obviously, we're both in agreement that Deep throws dont necessarily help a team.

Brady hasn't proven that he's "good" at throwing deep throws until now.

we hate Gilbride.

Drew isn't very accurate on short throws

:shake:

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:49 PM

id love to continue with this all day bud, but ive got a draft in 12 mins...i have to get into the draft room.

08-23-2003, 02:49 PM

I just added it.

Reconcile those...

BTW, a better debate wouldn't be over a handful of throws or a single throw a season. It's incredibly unlikely that a single throw, or even two or three such throws would alter the season much anyway.

What's a better debate is the utility of a better short-to-medium game over that of a better deep game and the relationships between the two and then correspondingly the utility of a QB like Drew who's short-medium game is below average in spite of possessing a very good deep game.

But I don't think we'd disagree much. As I said, a good deep games is a great compliment to a good short-medium game, but not a substitute for one.

The perception thus far has been that our deep game is indispensible and cause for much offensive success in the scoring department.

Well, two things, first, if the deep game is all that responsible for those 5 TDs, then that means that our short game produced even that much less.

Second of all, since we didn't experience much success from a scoring standpoint over the majority of games after the first few, the value of sed deep game would appear to be less valuable than originally perceived!

08-23-2003, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by TypicalBill
id love to continue with this all day bud, but ive got a draft in 12 mins...i have to get into the draft room.

Good luck! I hope it's not one that I'm supposed to be at...!

:scared:

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:52 PM

What's a better debate is the utility of a better short-to-medium game over that of a better deep game and the relationships between the two and then correspondingly the utility of a QB like Drew who's short-medium game is below average in spite of possessing a very good deep game.

But I don't think we'd disagree much. As I said, a good deep games is a great compliment to a good short-medium game, but not a substitute for one.

The perception thus far has been that our deep game is indispensible and cause for much offensive success in the scoring department.

Well, two things, first, if the deep game is all that responsible for those 5 TDs, then that means that our short game produced even that much less.

Second of all, since we didn't experience much success from a scoring standpoint over the majority of games after the first few, the value of sed deep game would appear to be less valuable than originally perceived!

Hallilooya!!! i agree with this Wys... shorter easier passes that move the chain are vital for the success of an offense that wants consistency all year!

TypicalBill

08-23-2003, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Good luck! I hope it's not one that I'm supposed to be at...!

:scared:

Thanks :cheers:

ROFL! no bud ... ours starts tomorrow .. if i were you, id start ranking players..not all of'em just some of'em.. incase of a disconnection or an emergency :D

08-23-2003, 02:59 PM

Shouldn't you be in your draft room...

Yeah, I've got my list of the top 74 overall.

Drew's my obvious first rounder if he's still left when I select, but after that my lips are sealed...

socalfan

08-23-2003, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
[B]
Brady:

41+: 0-of-9/ 0%, 0, 0, 1 INT

Bledsoe:

41+: 3-of-10/ 30%, 1 TD, 0 INTs

Between the two, only 19 passes between them were pitched over 40, w/ only 3 completions, all three beloning to Drew. So I also don't think that's even worth bringing up.

Actually Wys, if you calculate the probabilities it turns out that it is very unlikely that Brady can throw the long, long, long ball as well as Drew.....If Brady threw as well as Drew, then the probability that he would have missed all nine of his passes is less that 5/100. If anything the stats you displayed (thanks that was really good by the way) shows that for the they are very comparable except at very long distances in which case Drew is better.