Is Anyone Else But Me...

[WG]

...waiting to see how well our Offense does vs. some decent teams before penciling them in as the "offense of the year" for '02?

Just curious. This has been like Tyson beating up some street stiffs and getting accolades for it. I'm not saying we suck by any stretch. Actually it appears that we are awesome! But let's get real, if we can't score against teams like Denver, or stop any team that has a 20th + rushing attack, then we'll be hurtin'!

Denver's gonna run all over us, that much is virtually given! So the question remains, how well will Denver be able to defend against our air attack?

I think that's a legitimate question and while we're all heaping praise on the O unit for last week's killer performance, we could be in for an equally upsetting performance this week in Denver, eh.

161 of our passing yards were in O/T when the Vikes D was exhausted. Either that or they left their brains on the bench upon entering the game.

That's only 302 passing yards and 2 TDs during regulation. Not to poop the party, but let's get real here, O/T made us look outstanding. Not that I won't take 300 yards and 2 TDs/0 INTs from Drew each week. But w/o any rushing production, that wouldn't be enough in most games.

I don't see us getting 300, except for "junk time" oor "between the 20s" vs. Denver. I see a ToP at 40/20 or so in favor of the Broncos. I see 200+ rushing yards from Gary, Anderson, and Portis, and less than 60 or 70, if we're lucky, by us.

That's a recipe for disaster. Also, while Drew has clearly demonstrated a renewed vigor for the game that I questioned prior to the season, you can expect Drew to not have nearly the time he had vs. the Vikes against Denver. If we're not careful, sacks and TOs against us may be the order of the day and the tone for the game. Hopefully Drew won't take such a beating that he risks injury! But make no mistake, Drew's gonna see pressure that he's only had nightmares about on Sunday. It'll be a far cry from what we've seen so far.

Anyway, I'm reserving judgment as to how good we actually are until we can light up a few decent teams too. If we beat the 5 scrubs on our schedule and lose to the rest, I'm not gonna be all that excited until we fix our DL next offseason.

[Ð]

I'll just sit back & enjoy the ride....why get upset over things you have zero control over ?

[WG]

Upset?

Just analyzing...

:D

I'm happiest when I'm in full-blown analytical mode!

LOL

[Ð]

Big waste-o-time, if you want my honest opinion

[casdhf]

It definately made good scrolling :up:

[Dozerdog]

Wait until the O-line gells and gets experience.... and Drew gets JR into the game.....and Centers....... These past 2 games have seen him underuse two big assets


There is only so much ball to go around.

When the recievers were blanketed vs the Jets, Gilbride ran wild with Henry. The Vikes played with 8 guys in the box to stuff the run (they stuffed the Bear's A-train this way the week prior) they went wild with Price, Reed , & Moulds.

I can't wait for them to match up with a decent D and see how the crafty old vet QB finds the open guy.

I think this week you will see alot of JR, Centers on the dump off, and a steady dose of Henry. (Unless our D gives up a ton of points early)

[Earthquake Enyart]

Please, wys doctor, please refill the painkillers.

Minny and the Jets are below average defenses, but they are certainly not the worst. The fish open with Detroit and the Colts who are worse, and the fish aren't exactly setting the world on fire.

I agree with wys that we will be hard pressed to stop the run this week. This will be a good test, and it will be interesting to see how this turns out. Don't forget, they have to stop us too.

[WG]

Let's get real there EE, they're both not far from the worst! This season will bear that out. The Vikes allowed superstar Jim Miller about 300 yards passing w/ 2 TDs and only 1 INT. How many times do you think Miller will repeat that feat this season??

They also allowed an offense that put up less than 20 ppg last year to get 27!

The Jets, well, let's just say that that N.E. must be so much better than we are offensively if the Jets are anything other than piss-poor. They made the Jets look like the Rams! Over 160 rushing yards. Brady, over 70% complete, almost 300 yards, 2/1. Yeah, the Jet D is marvelous.

Be honest w/ yourself; The Jets and Vike Ds will be among the league's worst 8 this season, easily.

As to the notion that the Vikes had anything more than 4 or 5 men on the line routinely, that simply isn't true. My Titan bud said the same thing and I sat there thru almost the entire second half pointing out how there were only 4, sometimes 5 in pass rush. When there were more on the line, they were clearly trying to pass rush and not stop any semblance of a run that wasn't working. Occasionally they blitzed 2 for 6 and a few times blitzed 3 plus the 4 rushers. But they never, or rarely had 7 or more on the line.

It just doesn't make any sense. Why on earth would they do that w/ Drew playing the way he was? Besides, when they rush 6 or 7 on an obvious passing down, the idea isn't to stuff the run.

The Vike pass rush was a solid 4 men all day w/ occasional help from the LBs and some blitzing on passing downs by the DBs. Watch it again if you don't believe me.

[LtBillsFan66]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Is Anyone Else But Me...
...waiting to see how well our Offense does vs. some decent teams before penciling them in as the "offense of the year" for '02?



I would like to see. But not in the manner in which you describe. No one here is labeling them the offense of the year. We are all excited about two great performances - except for the chronically over-analytical "fans".

BTW, is RJ is still 3rd string? I am waiting for you to own up to your promise to publicly announce how wrong you were about RJ "outperforming" Bledsoe. Or are you still analyzing RJ's zero QB rating and zero sack percentage.

[WG]

In the entire second half and O/T, we only attempted 8 rushes. 2 of them were by Centers, and at least one of those was a draw. That leaves 5 carries in the entire first half.

I hardly see how that qualifies as even trying to run. The Jets only had 11 carries by the RBs in week 1. We had 13. That's 3 carries a Q. That's like 1 per drive. Actually less. We had 13 carries and 14 drives. I don't see why a D would even attempt to stop something that isn't being done. It only presupposes that their DC is an idiot. Indeed they didn't.

[TigerJ]

I'm not worried, since my expectations this season did not include making the playoffs. It's definitely going to be interesting this week. I'm looking forward to seeing the Bills vs. an excellent defense.

[WG]

Agreed!

I'm happy, as I said at the beginning of the year, if Drew is not the QB he's been in N.E. That looks like it has materialized. Ie., he's stepped up. And secondly, if we were in the top 8 offenses. That's a very likely result.

We know our D stinks. So our record will reflect that. We can fix the DL this offseason.

[lordofgun]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Let's get real there EE, they're both not far from the worst! This season will bear that out. The Vikes allowed superstar Jim Miller about 300 yards passing w/ 2 TDs and only 1 INT. How many times do you think Miller will repeat that feat this season??


Jim Miller is vastly underrated, right EE? :D

[blcny]

This weeks game will show a lot about our team. Hopefully the veterans can step up and make some plays. Our offense should be fine. We have 3 great recievers, a decent RB, and TE. I'm excited to see how we stack up against a good team.

[LABillsFan]

Well the game against the Jets showed that the Bills could run. Why stop passing if the Vikes couldn't stop it. We lit up a team, that was looking for the pass, by passing. Tell me that doesn't look good when other teams are looking at the films. Teams have to respect both parts of the offense now. Where do you as a DC concentrate? If KG mixes up the plays well the Bills could have a shot at dictating the play on the line.

[colin]

Wys, if you are going to analyze, do it right.

How many points did Minny average AT HOME last year? Even against good opponents, they did well.

[timfromjersey]

Your a glasses half empty type of guy, aren't ya Wys?



I wonder if you "analyzed" operation "Desert storm" like this?

Tim: Wys, the US Army really kicked ass over there, didn't they!

Wys: Well, you know, the Iraqi's don't have much of an army. I would like to see them beat, say the Chinese Red army or the Russians, you know, a real army like that.

Tim: But wys, they fielded over 100,000 men in the Republican Guard alone!

Wys: Yeah, well they only killed an estimated 8,000 men.

Tim: But wys, we had complete control of the sky!

Wys: Yeah well, they have the 27th ranked airforce in the world...

You get the idea.

(Any relationship to actual "Desert Storm" statistics is strictly coincidental)

[Rebecky]

Geez, folks --

What's wrong with honest analysis? Must everything on a team's message board be blind rah-rah? Is there no room for serious football discussion, including our own team's weaknesses?

Whether or not you agree with Wys, he presented a thoughtful post with points for analysis and discussion. It was not, at least by my read, a call to arms!

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Upset?

Just analyzing...

:D

I'm happiest when I'm in full-blown analytical mode!

LOL


You're happy when you have your posts at least two pages long :lol:

[casdhf]

Analyze This :hump:

:D

[BledsoeRocks]

I think Wys is a closet Bills hater.

[Sabre Ally]

No way.........I think Wys loves the Bills almost more than any of us.

[Cntrygal]

Originally posted by Sabre Ally
No way.........I think Wys loves the Bills almost more than any of us.

:eek:
I am a Bills FANatic!!!!!!!!

[Sabre Ally]

Ok, ok, ok.........MAYBE the Bills aren't his first love.........but I'm kinda glad they aren't, because his sauce wouldn't be the greatest if he didn't give it first priority. :hungry:

[timfromjersey]

I just don't think it is honest analysis.

Theres nothing to predicting that a explosive offense won't be as productive against a higher quality of defense. That's what better defenses do, slow down or reduce offensive production. However the Bills have shown the ability to move the ball well and score against weaker defenses. It is not the promise of nirvana or the second coming of the maker. It is simply a demonstration of offensive potential and capability. It simply means that if your defense doesn't come to play, you will be scored on.

Yet wys prediction of the teams offense not being able to score like this the whole season, is nothing more than a statistical certainy, a numbers game than will eventually even out because no team has ever maintained that kind of scoring production game after game for a whole season. It will all average out.

However, his point is can the offense carry the team in shoot out after shootout because the defense is horrible. Of course not. But his analysis is flawed because he is presuming, without knowing the future, that the defense will stink to the high heaven, game after game. There is no way he can know that because the future's not here yet. That, like the statistical impossibility of an offense maintaining it's high rate of scoring, is also an impossibility. The defense will, with a statistical certainty do better. The defense is not a mathematical logarithm that will alway factor out the same. There are too many variables. The defense is made of talented people who might just learn how to play as a team.

The question shouldn't be how will the offense do versus better defenses, but how much will the Bill's defense improve this year.

[Creemoredrinker]

Originally posted by timfromjersey
The question shouldn't be how will the offense do versus better defenses, but how much will the Bill's defense improve this year.

:chair:

You know it is easy in these times of uncertainty (just ask any Iraqi) to be cycnical about everything including our favourite passion -- the Buffalo Bills. However, the truth is this season has started better than anyone here could have anticipated. We are only one play (or one call if you agree with me that we should have gone for the two-point conversion in the Home Opener) away from being 2-0. We have a QB who we have complete trust/faith in. The best front office in the NFL. Life is good. Real good.

Yes, it is true our next three games are against three teams that are currently 2-0. If we get past our first 5 games with a 2-3 record, but are in every single game, I believe we will be a playoff team this year given the rest of our schedule and what we would have learned from our first 5 games.

Give our defense some time. Please be patient. If the ups and downs are too much for you, seek medication from your psych., family or procotologist doctor. Another approach is take enough sleeping pills so you wake up in week 16 and the Bills are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Jim Miller IS vastly underrated. Da Bears have a nice bunch of receivers and are going to have 300+ yard games passing.

If I were Mike Shanahan, I'd be looking to run all day long, first because they should be able to, second, to keep the ball away from Drew. If Denver is successful, the game will not be as high scoring as everyone thinks.

I also worry about Gilbride outsmarting himself.

[timfromjersey]

I whole heartedly agree with EE on Miller. I like what he did last year and I think he will lead Bears to playoffs again, barring injury.

I'm not in complete agreement over the quality of his recievers though. Will Marty Booker repeat his outstanding no.s from last season? After him, they don't have much.


I flat out think the Bills will beat the Broncos. They have not seen this offense and will be unprepared to deal with it. I don't think the Bills will be 2-3 after 5 games.

[casdhf]

Miller isn't all that good. He was better when he was jacked up on steroids in Pittsburgh

[Buffarama]

Originally posted by casdhf
Analyze This :hump:

:D

LOL Cas

[BledsoeRocks]

Originally posted by Sabre Ally
No way.........I think Wys loves the Bills almost more than any of us.

Not more than me!:shout:

[timfromjersey]

Originally posted by Sabre Ally
No way.........I think Wys loves the Bills almost more than any of us.



You wouldn't know it by the way he posts sometimes. He sounds more like a jeering, bitter ex fan to me.

[Ed]

What's wrong with our DL and why do so many people still think our D is going to be aweful? Going into the season everyones biggest concern was the DL which is fair, but they've played well and while my expectations were pretty low, they've blown them out of the water. They helped shut down Curtis Martin and the Jets running game and they got consistent pressure on both Vinny and Daunte. I mean what do they have, like 7 sacks and three forced fumbles in 2 games? Throw in a TD too and I think that's some pretty good production. Pat Williams is solid, Schobel is continuing to make progress, Ron Edwards has really stepped up and improved his game, and I think Ahanotu was one of our best aquistions this year. He's come right in and made plays for us, doesn't make mistakes and his really solidified the LDE spot. I mean what were our biggest concerns on the DL this offseason, basically the left side. Well I'm pretty proud of the way Ahanotu and Edwards have played and if they keep it up, I don't think there's that big of a need for fixing. Not to mention Bannan and Irons have also showed some real promise.

I know everyone points to all the yds the Vikings racked up on the ground, but we stop the run with numbers and we didn't do that. And I think our LB's deserve most of the blame for the Viking running all over us. They were in position to make plays and tackles, but struggled. They also allowed the Jets to consistently gain big yards and stay in the game with all the dump off passes. If anyone on D needs to step it up, it's our LB's which shouldn't be a problem given the talent and experience we have at the position.

I don't know if our D can ever be great this year, but my expectations have gone way up.

[Cntrygal]

Welcome Ed!!! :)

Great post (IMO), my expectations for this year have been pretty low too (doesn't stop me from hoping for the best). While mistakes have been made, I keep reminding myself that is a young team and as long as they keep improving and don't keep making the same mistakes, I can be happy. Even with 1-1, I am alot more optimistic than I was 3 weeks ago!

GO BILLS!

[WG]

I just don't understand that comment Ed.

The Vikes had well over 200 yards rushing against us! And that would be by Moe Williams and Michael Bennett. Bennett is in his second year and SUCKED last year. Williams has 486 rushing yards and 2 TDs in his entire career! His best day by a long shot was last week against us where we made him look like the Edge!

Culpepper had almost 300 yards passing and 3 TDs!

This is what everyone considers having played well??

I guess my standards are a bit higher. Perhaps thus the more realistic outlook. But if we don't have 3 fumble recoveries as a result of fumbles by Culpepper, then we get absolutely CREAMED in that game! The Vikings had 449 NET yards, mostly in regulation. We had just over 300 in regulation! If the game doesn't go to OT, then we have a VERY below average day in terms of total offense.

Are we counting on 5 sacks and 3 FRs this week v. a Denver team that figures to run 60% of the time instead of throw like Minnesota did? Because if we are, then I wouldn't hold my breath unless Portis gets 30 carries.

I only ask b/c we're simply not gonna get those kinds of TOs each week. I mean as you said, 7 sacks in 2 games. Do you really think that our D will have 7 x 8, or 56 sacks this season? We're gonna have some huge producers if that's the case. I can't explain the sacks against Minnesota. Their OL isn't the greatest, but they did manage to totally blow our DL away other than allowing 5 sacks to allow Culpepper that kind of production in spite of registering those sacks.

As far as shutting down Martin, he had 4 carries, the team had what, 11 carries from the RBs total? That hardly even constitutes an effort. We didn't "shut" Jordan down who had 7 carries in Martin's absence for 32 yards, a 4.6 ypc average. The Jets for some bizarre reason simply chose not to run. IDK why. Ask Edwards. But to say that we "shut them down" is to take some liberties there.

My expectations are where they were until we play that way against Denver, Oakland, Miami (2), N.E. (2), Green Bay, KC, S.D., and possibly several other teams w/ great rushers, solid D, and which are overly decent. At this point I'd say, that unless Martin comes back for the Jets, they'll be 4-12, and that Minnesota is due for another 5-11 or 6-10 season, even with an easy schedule. So I'm not gonna base how great we are against two teams that in the condition that we played them, may struggle to win 10 games between them.

Last year's playoff teams will be a much better indicator as to how good we really are. Those games are all yet to come:

N.E. (2)
Miami (2)
Denver
Chicago
Oakland
G.B.

If we can light those teams up, and prevent them from scoring more than we do, then I'll join this bandwagon of unfounded euphoria. Until then, I'll be rootin' my brains out each week for sure. But I ain't holdin' my breath that other than our passing game, we're any good.

People who still have to prove themselves IMO:

Gilbride
GW
Henry
Price
JR
R. Brown
Teague
the ENTIRE DL other than Williams and possibly Schobel
Fletcher
Robinson
STs

Constants:

Drew
Moulds
Reed (IMO)
rest of OL mostly
Pat Williams
Clements
Winfield
Newman

[WG]

P.S.

WELCOME ED!!!

TRULY!!!

[WG]

Cntry,

I think the reasons the expectations have been low, and I'm not sure I'd agree w/ that BTW, is b/c we did nothing to help our DL and thus far, Fletcher really hasn't shown anything other than average, at best. So our D is virtually non-improved.

Any expectations that do exist, are based entirely on the offense. It was dynamic so far. So if they are low, it's probably b/c our O hasn't improved to the point where it can compensate for such a lousy D.

[Earthquake Enyart]

3 posts in a row again. 15 yards.

[WG]

LOL

[Rebecky]

How strong is our OL re: protecting Bledsoe against the Denver D?

[Cntrygal]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Cntry,

I think the reasons the expectations have been low, and I'm not sure I'd agree w/ that BTW, is b/c we did nothing to help our DL and thus far, Fletcher really hasn't shown anything other than average, at best. So our D is virtually non-improved.

Any expectations that do exist, are based entirely on the offense. It was dynamic so far. So if they are low, it's probably b/c our O hasn't improved to the point where it can compensate for such a lousy D.

Actually.... my expections were low due to a combinations of things (don't want to be accused of a "wys post" though :D ).
Including the lack of "visible" immediate improvement of the DL. I feel more optimistic overall since I've seen the guys play together. I didn't expect a playoff team this year, but I expected improvement. I do see that, in spite of mistakes and missed coverages. They are a young team, and will keep improving.

[WG]

Good question Rebecky!

IMO, the strength of our OL is not a question. Literally if you will. :D

Where I think we'll lose out v. Denver in their DL v. our OL is experience. Jennings, Williams, and Sullivan IMO will be fine in the long run as staples of our OL. Brown is Brown who makes mental errors anyway. Teague, well, IMO a very overpaid C and not that great an OL-man that we got a steal in his deal. In any case, Teague has only one year of experience, Sullivan in his first, Williams in his first, Jennings in his second, and Brown, well, Brown is Brown. LOL

The Denver DL is not inexperienced. Certainly it is a far cry from the Minnesota and Jet DLs. Rhodes is an excellent DC too. Their LBs are a quick bunch, faster than what we've seen so far this year.

I'm looking for a whole bunch of looks that our young OL hasn't seen and won't properly react to. I'm also anticipating that our young OL-men will also lose out individually to the talented Bronco DL-men as well. That will be more than enough to disrupt our passing game so far as to render it much less effective than it was in O/T last week.

That will force us to punt, quite often I'm guessing. Assuming that we don't turn the ball over due to fumbles or INTs. Once Denver has the ball, they'll have no trouble taking 8-10 minutes off the clock by running the ball at will.

Vs. Minnesota last week we had 10 offensive drives in regulation.

4 resulted in punts
2 were for TDs on good drives, 160 yard drives, however, w/ 156 of Drew's 302 passing yards, over half, coming on those two drives. Only 4 rushing yards in one play.
4 FGs, w/ 2 of them having been set up by fumbles by Culpepper both around the Minn. 30 YL.
There was also a KO return for a TD.

So, the logical assumption is that unless we get some key TOs like we did in the Minnesota game, and barring another KO return for a TD, we can expect the offensive output v. Denver to be equal to or less than it was v. Minnesota.

Namely, 2 TDs and 2 FGs. Unless and if we have some key TOs or some outstanding STs play, such as returns for TDs, etc.

Since our STs isn't playing that well, expect the net benefits of STs play to go to Denver. Since the Denver offense has turned the ball over only 3 times in two games, we can't expect that they'll turn it over 3 or more times this week. Especially since they'll be run, run, running their way to happiness. ;)

In any case, I'd say that two TDs and 2 FGs are reasonable expectations this week, and ones that are on par w/ the offensive performances of the Bills in the first two games w/o the assistance of key TOs.

As usual, TOs and voracious STs play can swing a game big time. But my entire point is that I'm not sure how many people seem to realize how much our success has hinged on key STs play and TOs that we simply cannot count on, nor will get, each week. Combine that w/ the fact that we've played two teams that will likely be near the bottom of the NFL this season, it doesn't speak as loudly as some seem to think.

[Ed]

Thank you for the warm welcomes.

Wys, I don't think we'll get a lot of sacks and fumbles every week, but I also don't think we'll give up 200+ yds on the ground every week either. I'm not sure what you don't understand, I know all the stats from the games, my main point that I was trying to make is that I think the D's played a lot better then I was expecting and will continue to improve. I'm not expecting the D to flat out win games for us, but I feel confident they'll always be able to keep it close and give our O a chance to win.

As for people who need to prove themselves, I know you don't think much of Peerless Price and you've been super high on Josh Reed all offseason, but how is Reed possibly a constant? His whole career consists of two games, only one of which he put up big numbers and that was because no one was covering him. I think he's gonna be great too, but he's still got A LOT to prove.