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One of the reasons for this decline can simply be attributed to the natural wear of a running back’s body after having carried the ball a staggering 3,577 times since his freshman year of high school. Derrick Henry is one of the greatest athletes of our time—a general talent—who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash coming out of college. But those hits take their toll on everyone, even a player of Henry’s caliber. This is reflected in the yards-after-contact numbers dropping as mentioned above.
The second reason is the departure of previous Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to become the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Smith rightfully garnered praise for his work as the OC in Tennessee, but his approach to the running game was also stylistically different than that of current Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing. In the time Downing has called plays, the Titans have run 144 zone runs with Henry compared to 116 gap runs (about 55% zone runs). In the two years prior with Arthur Smith calling the plays, the Titans ran 556 zone runs with Henry compared to 220 gap runs (about a 72% zone run rate). Henry, from a skill set standpoint, is best when he can plant his foot in the ground to make a singular cut and build momentum going downhill.
The third reason Henry is seeing a decline is the quality of the Titans’ offensive line in regards to run blocking. In Week 1 against the New York Giants, Derrick Henry gained 1.7 yards before contact per attempt. In 2021, that number was 2.1. In 2020, it was 2.5. In 2019 (the year I mentioned as likely his best year), his yards before contact per attempt was 1.9—giving further weight to his individual performance that year being even more stellar than his 2k club entry in 2020. The Titans’ PFF run blocking grades over the last four years? 83.3, then 77.8, then 75.6, then 75.6. In Week 1 of 2022, it was 67.0. Tennessee’s run-block win rate this year has been 73%. In 2021 it was 69%. For 2020, it was 70%, and 2019 showed it at 72%. Legitimate issues can be had with any of these measurements of run-game blocking by themselves, but in the aggregate, they all paint a similar picture: The line hasn’t been blocking as well for Henry recently.
The decline of Henry’s effectiveness, like most things, is a result of multiple factors all simultaneously at play. He can still be a dangerous player, but the Titans will need to do a better job in play calling and run blocking to accommodate for the slow creep of Father Time towards one of the best rushers of his generation.
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