Which teams go for it on 4th down... when they should

[swiper]

Anyone else see this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeOoUNaXwAACVJh?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

[sukie]

Don’t understand the sample size… 5 times the bills went when they should all the rest we shouldn’t have?

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I for one am shocked, SHOCKED I SAY, that conservative-offense-hater Sean McDermott is the top rated 4th down decision maker and is “there every year”<br><br>This completely new &amp; foreign information has rocked my world <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BillsMafia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BillsMafia</a> <a href="https://t.co/HyEAtQCReY">https://t.co/HyEAtQCReY</a></p>&mdash; Greg Cover 1 �� (@GregTompsett) <a href="https://twitter.com/GregTompsett/status/1577298559711453184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[YardRat]

Doesn't seem like a legit 'study'. There is no benchmark for when a team 'should' go for it on fourth down.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-4th-down-attempts-by-an-nfl-team-this-season

Buffalo has gone for it 7 times this season on fourth down, what makes the other two attempts (0 for 2, obviously) not part of the data set?

[Forward_Lateral]

Doesn't seem like a legit 'study'. There is no benchmark for when a team 'should' go for it on fourth down.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-4th-down-attempts-by-an-nfl-team-this-season

Buffalo has gone for it 7 times this season on fourth down, what makes the other two attempts (0 for 2, obviously) not part of the data set?

I'm not sure, but I think it only includes times that they SHOULD go for it? I don't exactly know how that's determined. All this data is saying is that McDermott goes for it 100% of the time, when the analytics say that he should.

[OpIv37]

Doesn't seem like a legit 'study'. There is no benchmark for when a team 'should' go for it on fourth down.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-4th-down-attempts-by-an-nfl-team-this-season

Buffalo has gone for it 7 times this season on fourth down, what makes the other two attempts (0 for 2, obviously) not part of the data set?

I'm not 100% on this but this is how I think this study goes:

They have criteria for when going for it on 4th down vs punting or attempting a FG increases a team's chances of winning the game by at least 1%. They're ranking teams based on who actually goes for it in those scenarios vs who kicks/punts.

The reason we're 5 for 5 instead of 5 for 7 is because, based on their criteria, the 2 4th down attempts where we failed would not have increased our chances of winning. But that's where the problem comes in. There is no objective criteria for when going for it increases the chances of winning, and they didn't really state what criteria they are using.

I mean, some situations are obvious. If it's 4th and goal from the 2 and a team is losing by 5 with 10 seconds left, obviously going for it is going to increase the odds of winning, because any other option is an automatic loss. But if it's a tie game early in the 3rd and it's 4th and one at midfield, does going for it increase or decrease a team's chance of winning? Does it depend on the makeup of the team? The weather? Being home or away? There's a lot of subjectivity there.

[swiper]

I'm not sure, but I think it only includes times that they SHOULD go for it? I don't exactly know how that's determined. All this data is saying is that McDermott goes for it 100% of the time, when the analytics say that he should.

The TWITTER poster says that "it's based on my criteria," so purely subjective.