The cream rises to the top - Bills vs Chiefs

[ghz in pittsburgh]

After 4 weeks into the season, you can say clearly, at least in AFC, Bills and the Chiefs are in a class of its own. You can reasonably assume that next Sunday game at Arrowhead is the preview of the AFC championship game.

I know everyone at One Bills Drive want that championship game at home, badly. The biggest step towards that goal is to win that game next Sunday.

How to slow down Mahomes and Andy Reed's offense? In theory, we have a better chance than ever to do so. Hill is not there any more. Regardless what people say, I see an impact; people are more willing to play man against them now. Heck if the Bills had White, I think play man with White and Elam would not be a bad idea. Also the Bill D-Line is clearly better than last year - the Von addition and the youngsters stepping up. DaQuan Jones really improved Bills run defense so far - I'm sure Reed will test the Bills in that department as the Chiefs O-Line improved significantly as well as you can see in the Tampa game, and some in the Raiders game. I have to assume McDermott will double team Kelce, taking away Mahomes biggest weapon.

On offense, I don't think the divisional playoff game scenario will happen again, but I look for a more steady game from Josh to have a more even output. We need him at his best - better than any game he has played this year.

[OpIv37]

Kelce is going to eat us alive.

[Cntrygal]

I'm sure that the NFL (Vegas) is counting on this game being close and down to the wire. So, the Bills need to remain disciplined and not let Jones, Sneed or Kelce goad them into something stupid that'll cause the flags to fly at a crucial moment.

[Forward_Lateral]

Kelce is going to eat us alive.
He eats everyone alive.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Kelce is going to eat us alive.
That's the difference between Hill being there and not there. You can take a player out of the game, forcing Mahomes to go to others. Good defenses do that.

Maybe the others will beat us. If so, they have a better team than us.

[notacon]

Last night's game showed me how vulnerable KC is to good teams. Especially teams that don’t beat themselves.

KC did not “win” that game, the Raiders “LOST” it. With lack of discipline, stupid penalties and dumb coaching. LV is not a good team (right now) and KC barely squeaked out a win.

LV ahead 17-7. 1st half with :21 seconds, 4th and 1 from KC 32. Looked like they were going to go for it, but then back down and take the FG (at :17 left). Giving up the chance to go up 24-7. Then let KC kick a last second FG to cut the lead to only 10.

THAT was the time to get aggressive. Get the first down, eat up more clock. Take a shot at the end zone.

But, that was a justifiable choice, the worst was yet to come.

Behind 23-24, they hold KC on the LV 18. KC tries a FG but miss it. HOW THE **** DO YOU HOLD ON DEFENSE ON A FG?!?!?!?


I mean, I can't remember the last time I saw such a stupid penalty, with defensive holding on a FG. So, instead of being behind by only one point, KC scores their last points of the game to go up 30-23. KC’s risk going for two points (which failed) is much more justifiable, because it still left them 7 points ahead.

And then, one of the coaching brain farts of the season. LV gets the TD and passes up the sure extra point and goes for 2 and failed. Sorry, but there is no logic for doing this. NONE.

If KC gets the ball and goes down for a TD...they are up 7, and LV has a chance to match it. Stop KC, which they did, if the score is TIED, which it would have been if the coach was thinking straight....the ensuring drive is to WIN, with a FG.

But, if they could not get that FG, the worst is a tie and possible OT.

THAT stupid decision led to the next stupid decision to throw a long pass on 4th down. A desperation pass that would not been necessary if they had a tie game. And the lack of discipline was glaring with the two WR’s running into each other. How the **** do you do that????

Anyway, KC is vulnerable to a championship caliber team that does not play with their head’s up their asses.

Yes, yes, they are the cream of the AFC along with the Bills, but the Bills are simply a better team. They play their game and minimize mistakes, the beat the Chief’s somewhat easily.

[Crisis]

I would just like to see us actually get home on Mahomes for once. Tired of this guy spinning out of sure sacks and flinging it 30 yards down field after.

[Cntrygal]

I wonder if it would be a penalty if Groot just hugged and picked him up - so Von Miller could burp him like a baby... :scratch:

[notacon]

I would just like to see us actually get home on Mahomes for once. Tired of this guy spinning out of sure sacks and flinging it 30 yards down field after.

That’s why they went out and got Von Miller. And why the Bills overhauled the D-line as well.

[Cntrygal]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brad Allen will be the referee for Bills at Chiefs Sunday. The last Bills game he officiated was the 47-17 wild card win over the Patriots.<br><br>His crew has called the 7th most penalties per game out of 17 officiating crews.</p>&mdash; Sal Capaccio �� (@SalSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/SalSports/status/1580000538271309829?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[ghz in pittsburgh]

The secondary watch for both teams is on. The Chiefs elected not to pay Charvarius Ward (who signed a 3 year $42 million deal with the 49ers) and let go safety Mathieu. They drafted Trent McDuffie, who has been on IR since game 1 and is eligible to come back this week. Ward is the one who had been huddling Diggs in the past whenever we played them. They are going with younger players there - 3rd year man Sneed is supposed to be a rising player.

The Bills took a different approach nut injury put them in similar position with Jackson and Elam, plus Hamlin back in there facing Mahomes. At least I hope Poyer is back in this game.

Regardless, you are talking about facing Allen and Mahomes. Any weakness back there will be explored.

[Buffalogic]

35-24 bills

[Woodman]

1-0 is the goal!

[BuffaloBlitz83]

Kelce is going to eat us alive.

Gabe will eat kc alive again!

[Historian]

On paper, the balance has tipped, and the Bills actually have a little more talent.

Unfortunately our injury list borderlines on ridiculous.

I see us dropping this one by a field goal, maybe 28-31.

[Night Train]

Unfortunately our injury list borderlines on ridiculous.


The Buffalo Bills released their final injury report ahead of Sunday's showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs and have one player questionable and one player ruled out.The only player to be ruled out from the active roster is WR Jake Kumerow (ankle), while DT Jordan Phillips (hamstring) is questionable.

This is good news for several players, including S Jordan Poyer, DT Ed Oliver, WR Isaiah McKenzie, CB Christian Benford and TE Dawson Knox, among others. They do not carry an injury tag heading into Kansas City.

[TacklingDummy]

Kelce is going to eat us alive.

Not if they cover him.

[notacon]

Not if they cover him.
In the 13 second game, it was Tyreek Hill that was THE difference. No Tyrek and the Bills win that game.

Yes, yes, Kelce is a terror, but he has been more of terror vs the Bills because of Tyreek Hill.

Not having Hill has not affected the overall KC passing offense....against most teams. The Buffalo Bills are NOT like most teams. Especially this year with the revamped D-line.

Kelce will get his catches, and will probably score a TD or two. But he will not be the difference in the game. The Bills performance vs TE's has been one of the best defenses in the NFL.....except Kelce.


And that is because of having Hill on the field.

The Athletic’s Tim Graham provides some of the details....

The Bills have owned tight ends this season. Now here’s Travis Kelce (https://theathletic.com/3691521/2022/10/14/bills-chiefs-travis-kelce/)




The Buffalo Bills (https://theathletic.com/nfl/team/bills/) have snuffed tight ends better than any other defense.

Kansas City Chiefs (https://theathletic.com/nfl/team/chiefs/) tight end Travis Kelce (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/travis-kelce-4wuXOfkjv6uJbT7O/) ravages defenses like none other.

“He’s a guy that can really wreck the game,” Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier said Monday at 5:05 p.m.

About six hours later, Kelce scored his fourth touchdown against the helpless Las Vegas Raiders (https://theathletic.com/nfl/team/raiders/) to propel the Chiefs from a 17-point crater to a strong-armed victory (https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=2776fd5d35484f9dJmltdHM9MTY2NTcwNTYwMCZpZ3VpZD0wZmM3OTgyMy0xNmE0LTY1ZDUtMTIwMi04ODM0MTJhNDZiNzUmaW5zaWQ9NTE3Nw&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=0fc79823-16a4-65d5-1202-883412a46b75&psq=cheifs+raider+live+blog&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVhdGhsZXRpYy5jb20vbGl2ZS1ibG9ncy9yYWlkZXJzLWNoaWVmcy1zdHJlYW1pbmctY2hhbm5lbC1wcmVkaWN0aW9ucy1zdGFydC10aW1lLXNjb3JlL0lJZjRQUzN3WXRGUi8&ntb=1).

Kelce’s display was just the latest reminder that he can turn into an undeniable force whenever and wherever he’s on the field, but the Bills so far have denied every tight end they’ve covered.

....snip....


Through five games, Buffalo ranks first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against tight ends while having guarded three of the NFL’s most targeted. Buffalo also is among the final 10 defenses not to have let a tight end score.

Tight ends are averaging 7.0 targets, 4.2 catches, 33.8 yards and 2.4 first downs a game against the Bills.

The average NFL (https://theathletic.com/nfl/) defense is surrendering 6.8 targets, 4.7 catches, 48.3 yards and 2.5 first downs, though further context makes the Bills’ stinginess remarkable.

Told about Buffalo’s top DVOA ranking, linebacker Matt Milano (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/matt-milano-ZRj4di17FE6yBxBv/) wanted to know more.

“That’s a cool statistic,” Milano said in his surprise.

DVOA is a metric that compares the result of every play with a league average based on down, distance, field position, time and opponent. Where the Bills soar is in their effectiveness against some productive tight ends who otherwise thrive.

Bills defense vs. tight ends in 2022


<tbody>
PLAYER
TARGETS
CATCHES
YARDS


Tyler Higbee (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/tyler-higbee-Qlj6VmlY7NgrDnoy/)
11
5
39


Austin Hooper (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/austin-hooper-gUwUJIryr73WC7dH/)
5
1
19


Mike Gesicki (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/mike-gesicki-29pBYCVUQANmMIMN/)
1
1
6


Mark Andrews (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/mark-andrews-ivPiSTgSWxTHPDEt/)
5
2
15


Pat Freiermuth (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/pat-freiermuth-eikKieC3POxasPA4/)
2
2
12

</tbody>


Tyler Higbee (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/tyler-higbee-Qlj6VmlY7NgrDnoy/) of the Rams (https://theathletic.com/nfl/team/rams/) and Mark Andrews (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/mark-andrews-ivPiSTgSWxTHPDEt/) of the Ravens (https://theathletic.com/nfl/team/ravens/) rank first and second in targets, while the Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/pat-freiermuth-eikKieC3POxasPA4/) is sixth. Andrews also leads all tight ends with 349 yards and is second with four touchdowns. Higbee is fourth with 290 yards but has yet to score.

more...





This is certainly going to be a match-up to watch on Sunday. The threat of the long ball when Hill simply runs by everyone.....is gone.

The threat of a short pass to Hill, and then he uses his amazing speed to run past everyone else (like that 64 yard TD in the playoff game) is gone.

The real threat is the Bills dynamic passing attack, with Diggs, Davis, McKenzie and Knox vs the depleted KC secondary.

I have a feeling that this game is not going ot as close as a lot of people think.

[TacklingDummy]

I'm more worried that Mahomes will have multiple first downs running than I am of Kelce having a huge game.

[Woodman]

I'm more worried that Mahomes will have multiple first downs running than I am of Kelce having a huge game.

Gotta keep him contained.

[TacklingDummy]

The NFL network is showing the Bills/Chiefs playoff at 4pm if anyone wants to watch.

[Woodman]

Starting fresh tomorrow.

[TacklingDummy]

Damn, the Chiefs were going to be held to FG on their 2nd TD drive if Dane Jackson didn't give them a 1st down by holding Hill when he didn't need to.