Could the Packers Beat the Bills?

[Kaziganth]

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/could-the-packers-beat-the-bills-441

And so the dark clouds of disbelief and depression have descended upon Packer nation, and it’s dreadful. Yet for reasons perhaps known only to a handful of neuroscientists, there is always enough green and gold in our DNA for us to imagine the sun breaking through, to let us entertain hopeful questions such as: Could we really beat the Bills on Sunday?

Spoiler alert: nah.

But let’s pretend, as a wild and crazy thought experiment, that such a thing was possible. How could it be done? The coaches seem out of answers, so let’s do this ourselves.

First, let’s talk about running the ball. This is such a radical idea that no one has mentioned it anywhere else, or at least anywhere inside 1265 Lombardi Ave. But I know what you’re thinking: You’re thinking that the Bills are number 1 in DVOA when it comes to rush defense. Doesn’t this suggest not running the ball?

No. But it also does not mean swinging the pendulum all the way from hardly ever running the ball to nearly always running it. That kind of over-correction is almost as bad as not changing anything at all. Especially against Buffalo’s D.

Instead, Rodgers needs to get back under center and run a relentless regimen of play action and RPO. It’s the best way to keep the defense guessing and to neutralize heavy pass rush, provided the coaches mix in some fresh formations and designed plays that the Packers have not yet put on tape.

It means giving up on virtually all deep shots, and deploying a patient, short and medium passing game that uses the middle of the field much more aggressively, instead of constantly testing the two-high shell with go-balls. Properly executed, this would have the added benefit of keeping Josh Allen off the field. Use more rub routes, clear-outs and crossers to scheme receivers open.

Second, dial up the pressure. It’s been a mystery why Joe Barry doesn’t blitz more. Not to Wink Martindale levels, necessarily, but the Packers had some success blitzing Washington. Do it more. This probably also means assigning a spy to monitor Josh Allen and not let him get big chunk plays with his legs.

Third, pull out all the trickeration you can muster. What is there to lose? Sneak in an eligible lineman and pass him the ball. Try fake punts or field goals, and direct snaps to the running backs. Use three-tight-end sets but vary the plays you run out of it. Anything to put the defense on their heels and slow them down.

Fourth, get the basics right. Stop taking dumb, drive-killing penalties. Play clean on special teams.

Fifth, when something is working, keep doing it. And when it stops working, have a plan for what you switch to next. And then switch.

Bottom line: Come in with an aggressive mindset and an even more aggressive game plan. Surprise the Bills with energy and intensity and grab the initiative first. In other words, come out swinging, punch them in the nose (figuratively), and prove Robert Saleh is wrong about this team being soft. The Packers are great at playing down to the level of their competition. It’s time to play up to it as well.

Even with all this, it will take a lot of luck to win. Not to mention the biggest X factor: whether the Packers will actually make the changes necessary.

But we can dream.

[Woodman]

Only if they don't take it with a killer attitude.

Beat the teams you should beat!!!

[OpIv37]

Could we lose? Sure. That's why they play the games. We lost to Jacksonville last year.

But I wouldn't bet on it.

[Night Train]

They could...

Yet, they won't.

[Novacane]

Of course they could beat us. I don't think it's going to happen though.

[Forward_Lateral]

Sure they could.

That being said, The Bills win this game by about 40

[sukie]

Von Miller …”Don’t Blink!”

[notacon]

I’ll join the chorus. The Bills are going to roll Sunday night.

It may be close at the half....and yes, Rodgers is capable of winning any game....but there is a reason why FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo) has the chance of the Bills winning at 84%.

This game has all the markings of being an embarrassing loss for the Pack.

[notacon]

Could we lose? Sure. That's why they play the games. We lost to Jacksonville last year.

But I wouldn't bet on it.


That Jax loss makes losing this game much, much less likely.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

Any future Bills loss this year is going to be an upset. It can happen; we have 11 more regular season chances at it. Could be anybody.

[notacon]

GMFB had a segment this morning about the Green Bay v Bill match up.

Peter Schrager sets the table and said that “I don’t know if anyone....anyone....I don’t care if it’s the ’78 Steelers are beating thr Bills on Sunday..."



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It’s not in this clip above, but Kyle Brandt covered the history of Aaron Rodgers “biggest spreads” against him. Everyone knows that this is the largest underdog spread that Rodgers has faced in his career...double digits....first time ever.

But, Kyle also said that he had his research team look up the five biggest spreads he has faced, Rodgers has “won none of them, and in three of the five he was blown out, losing by more than the spread”.<iframe scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/widget_iframe.7dae38096d06923d683a2a807172322a.html?origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.billszone.com" title="Twitter settings iframe" style="display: none;"></iframe><iframe id="rufous-sandbox" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" title="Twitter analytics iframe" style="position: absolute; visibility: hidden; display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px; padding: 0px; border: none;"></iframe>

[YardRat]

We lost to Miami. We can lose to anybody.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

We lost to Miami. We can lose to anybody.

agreed
any given sunday

if the bills play their A game though, i believe they cannot lose

[Typ0]

This is a different team than we fielded in Miami. Only way we lose this game is Allen isn't playing. I can see him throwing for 300+ yards and putting up 100+ rushing yards.

The Packers are done if they lose this week. They might really show up to play. Doesn't matter.

[notacon]

We lost to Miami. We can lose to anybody.

Jesus. What a tired cliche. Kinda dumb too when lamely trying to apply to one of, if not THE best team in the NFL.

Of course we could lose to anybody. If each and every week in the NFL has taught us anything is that any team can lose to or beat another.

What’s your point??? Loser talk???

Pathetic.

[Novacane]

Any future Bills loss this year is going to be an upset. It can happen; we have 11 more regular season chances at it. Could be anybody.

We've played the teams that had the best chance at beating us. If the Bills stay healthy and focused they will lose 1 more at worst.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I'm kind of looking for a "indy game" and a "Jaguar game" of last year on this year's schedule.

Remember in last year's Indy game, the Bills could not stop Taylor and Wentz played like MVP of the league.

Rodgers is capable of playing like an MVP. I just don't know the Bills will allow Green Bay to run all over them this year as our run defense, even with light boxes, is pretty steady.

[Mace]

Sure we can lose, and sure we shouldn't with this version of us against this version of them. Another test of a team that hungers for a championship. Every game now seriously will be. A loss brings why, and why's become important to the goal. If they keep rolling, on to next week, it they don't, why ?

Fix it and next week is fresh.

[sukie]

I'm kind of looking for a "indy game" and a "Jaguar game" of last year on this year's schedule.

Remember in last year's Indy game, the Bills could not stop Taylor and Wentz played like MVP of the league.

Rodgers is capable of playing like an MVP. I just don't know the Bills will allow Green Bay to run all over them this year as our run defense, even with light boxes, is pretty steady.
Dolphins game was the weird stinker so far… statistically crushed them and yet lost.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Dolphins game was the weird stinker so far… statistically crushed them and yet lost.

I view the Dolphins game as kind of the "Home NE game" last year where the weather impacted big time and the opponent pretty much had one big play to win the game.

The "Indy game" last year in my eye is a game where the opponent QB has an unexpected super performance against us whereas the "Jaguars game" is a game Allen and his offense completely fall apart. Next week's Jets game COULD be a "Jaguars game" because the opposing defense has such capability.

[Woodman]

These games are must wins to maintain an advantage currently enjoyed.

Last year should serve as lesson learned and if it doesn't shame on us.

[sukie]

Packers are a wounded animal backed into a corner. They have a hard schedule remaining and the playoffs picture is more and more translucent. That pride thing can kick in like adrenaline. I fear the possibility af a muffed punt and a freakish pick six and easily Bills are down 14. That’s why they play. Gotta play sound football no matter the opponent.

[TacklingDummy]

Like Miami, this is their Super Bowl. The Packers will come to play. The Bills can’t give them the game like they did Miami.

[Buffalogic]

Absolutely not.

[Woodman]

Packers should just tank and get the QB they need.

Rodgers just looks like he could care less anymore JMO.

[notacon]

Sure we can lose, and sure we shouldn't with this version of us against this version of them. Another test of a team that hungers for a championship. Every game now seriously will be. A loss brings why, and why's become important to the goal. If they keep rolling, on to next week, it they don't, why ?

Fix it and next week is fresh.

Of course “we can lose”.....there is a reason why there has been only ONE team that went undefeated in NFL history.

And that was 50 years ago, with only a 14 game season, when the goalposts were on the goal line. :rolleyes:


The NFL is a league that basically has tons of close to equal talent. The margin of error is miniscule. It’s hard to win any NFL game.


Especially compared to college football (which I do not care for) where the best teams have a handful of superior players (yeah....every NFL teams has a roster full of those guys) competing against a bunch of (not to be disrespectful)....slugs, that are in no way EVER going to be close to setting foot on a NFL field.

Since the reality is that virtually every team WILL LOSE SOME GAMES, the lame loser talk that....’the Bills lost to Jax last year’....’the Bills lost to Miami’.....’the Bills lost to Indy last year’....is silly.

If anyone in the Bills organization has that kind of mindset, they should just retire now. It’s loser talk through and through.

[Mace]

Packers are a wounded animal backed into a corner. They have a hard schedule remaining and the playoffs picture is more and more translucent. That pride thing can kick in like adrenaline. I fear the possibility af a muffed punt and a freakish pick six and easily Bills are down 14. That’s why they play. Gotta play sound football no matter the opponent.

I don't think they have a roster capable of taking advantage of that pride thing, particularly the offense. Their passing game was nearly all Adams, if you look back through the past couple years of stats. Ayahuasca looks lost out there without him.

[sahlensguy]

No.

[Cntrygal]

Jesus. What a tired cliche. Kinda dumb too when lamely trying to apply to one of, if not THE best team in the NFL.

Of course we could lose to anybody. If each and every week in the NFL has taught us anything is that any team can lose to or beat another.

What’s your point??? Loser talk???

Pathetic.

And why didn't you bother to address this to the THREAD ORIGINATOR? Instead of one of the respondents?

[acehole]

No.



https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/could-the-packers-beat-the-bills-441

And so the dark clouds of disbelief and depression have descended upon Packer nation, and it’s dreadful. Yet for reasons perhaps known only to a handful of neuroscientists, there is always enough green and gold in our DNA for us to imagine the sun breaking through, to let us entertain hopeful questions such as: Could we really beat the Bills on Sunday?

Spoiler alert: nah.

But let’s pretend, as a wild and crazy thought experiment, that such a thing was possible. How could it be done? The coaches seem out of answers, so let’s do this ourselves.

First, let’s talk about running the ball. This is such a radical idea that no one has mentioned it anywhere else, or at least anywhere inside 1265 Lombardi Ave. But I know what you’re thinking: You’re thinking that the Bills are number 1 in DVOA when it comes to rush defense. Doesn’t this suggest not running the ball?

No. But it also does not mean swinging the pendulum all the way from hardly ever running the ball to nearly always running it. That kind of over-correction is almost as bad as not changing anything at all. Especially against Buffalo’s D.

Instead, Rodgers needs to get back under center and run a relentless regimen of play action and RPO. It’s the best way to keep the defense guessing and to neutralize heavy pass rush, provided the coaches mix in some fresh formations and designed plays that the Packers have not yet put on tape.

It means giving up on virtually all deep shots, and deploying a patient, short and medium passing game that uses the middle of the field much more aggressively, instead of constantly testing the two-high shell with go-balls. Properly executed, this would have the added benefit of keeping Josh Allen off the field. Use more rub routes, clear-outs and crossers to scheme receivers open.

Second, dial up the pressure. It’s been a mystery why Joe Barry doesn’t blitz more. Not to Wink Martindale levels, necessarily, but the Packers had some success blitzing Washington. Do it more. This probably also means assigning a spy to monitor Josh Allen and not let him get big chunk plays with his legs.

Third, pull out all the trickeration you can muster. What is there to lose? Sneak in an eligible lineman and pass him the ball. Try fake punts or field goals, and direct snaps to the running backs. Use three-tight-end sets but vary the plays you run out of it. Anything to put the defense on their heels and slow them down.

Fourth, get the basics right. Stop taking dumb, drive-killing penalties. Play clean on special teams.

Fifth, when something is working, keep doing it. And when it stops working, have a plan for what you switch to next. And then switch.

Bottom line: Come in with an aggressive mindset and an even more aggressive game plan. Surprise the Bills with energy and intensity and grab the initiative first. In other words, come out swinging, punch them in the nose (figuratively), and prove Robert Saleh is wrong about this team being soft. The Packers are great at playing down to the level of their competition. It’s time to play up to it as well.

Even with all this, it will take a lot of luck to win. Not to mention the biggest X factor: whether the Packers will actually make the changes necessary.

But we can dream.

[sukie]

I don't think they have a roster capable of taking advantage of that pride thing, particularly the offense. Their passing game was nearly all Adams, if you look back through the past couple years of stats. Ayahuasca looks lost out there without him.
Muffed KO (7). Freak pick six on a tip (dammit McKenzie!__14) down 14-0 and rodgers threw maybe 3 passes… I never suspected 9-6 Jax game.

[Typ0]

Not sure how you can compare last years team that was seriously flawed. This team has already achieved a higher degree of preparation and focus it shows on the field. The same glaring wholes aren't there causing everything else to break down. The coaching and game management has been better. This team is dangerous. Last years team was a train wreck.

[sukie]

Not sure how you can compare last years team that was seriously flawed. This team has already achieved a higher degree of preparation and focus it shows on the field. The same glaring wholes aren't there causing everything else to break down. The coaching and game management has been better. This team is dangerous. Last years team was a train wreck.
Just look at the last game and McK… preparation and coaching gave us that performance.

[Skooby]

I went to the Jags game, same temperature and we lost 9-6. Total s-show. Our defense is better, we can score 40 against them. Plan on us winning in a laugher.

[sukie]

I went to the Jags game, same temperature and we lost 9-6. Total s-show. Our defense is better, we can score 40 against them. Plan on us winning in a laugher.
I plan on being bored early… it’s just that it “could” happen that the Packers win… Highly unlikely though.

[Woodman]

Just look at the last game and McK… preparation and coaching gave us that performance.

And that's exactly why it's so unlikely going forward .... if it does heads should roll.


:gobills:

[Woodman]

I plan on being bored early… it’s just that it “could” happen that the Packers win… Highly unlikely though.
We would all love an easy win with no injuries.

:gobills:

Here's to boredom.

:drunks:

[notacon]

And why didn't you bother to address this to the THREAD ORIGINATOR? Instead of one of the respondents?
I did (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/261508-Could-the-Packers-Beat-the-Bills?p=4971149&viewfull=1#post4971149).

More importantly, the “ORIGINATOR” of this thread posted a Green Bay FAN site article. And the “ORIGINATOR” (Kaziganth) did not promote any tired cliche’s of his own. In fact, his whole post is copied from the Packer’s fan.

Yardrat is supposedly a BILLS FAN.

I expect a Packer fan (from “CheeseheadTV”) to promote the idea that the Bills could be beat by Green Bay.

NOT from a Bills fan.

[Mace]

Muffed KO (7). Freak pick six on a tip (dammit McKenzie!__14) down 14-0 and rodgers threw maybe 3 passes… I never suspected 9-6 Jax game.

I just think it's pretty unlikely the Packers have the chops this season to win this game. Sure, any given game.....but the Bills don't look to be letting up like they did last year, and the Packers look headed for trouble.

[Canadian'eh!]

Any. Given. Sunday.

It's a game against an NFL team with the reigning 2 time MVP.

Never EVER assume you're going to cake walk your way to a W.

[Woodman]

Gotta earn your wins in this league.

[swiper]

Could the Packers Beat the Bills?

No. Even if the Bills are only firing on two cylinders.

[YardRat]

Buffalo was completely dominated in every facet of the game except for the most important stat...the scoreboard.

[Forward_Lateral]

Buffalo was completely dominated in every facet of the game except for the most important stat...the scoreboard.

No.

Not even close.

The 2nd half GB ran the ball. Big deal. The Bills were up 3 scores. Let them run. Who cares. They ate up most of the clock, and scored 10 points. The Bills refused to give in and drop their safeties into the box, because it was the right thing to to.

Not sure how you can say the Bills were completely dominated. They dominated the entire first half. Outside of a miracle catch by Doubs, the Packers did next to nothing.

You need to give your head a shake

[YardRat]

No.

Not even close.

The 2nd half GB ran the ball. Big deal. The Bills were up 3 scores. Let them run. Who cares. They ate up most of the clock, and scored 10 points. The Bills refused to give in and drop their safeties into the box, because it was the right thing to to.

Not sure how you can say the Bills were completely dominated. They dominated the entire first half. Outside of a miracle catch by Doubs, the Packers did next to nothing.

You need to give your head a shake

The only thing they dominated in the first half was the scoreboard, as I already stated. Which is fine, as long as it ends up in a win.

But we've been down this road before and it eventually ends up as a loss. I have no interest in traveling that path again, this team needs to be better than that.

[Forward_Lateral]

The only thing they dominated in the first half was the scoreboard, as I already stated. Which is fine, as long as it ends up in a win.

But we've been down this road before and it eventually ends up as a loss. I have no interest in traveling that path again, this team needs to be better than that.
Total Yards: GB 398 Buffalo 369

Rushing Yards GB 208 Buffalo 153

Passing Yards GB 190 Buffalo 216

First downs GB 21 Buffalo 20

TOP GB 33:48 Buffalo 26:12

Nothing about that screams "total domination" by the Packers. Nothing. Even less so, if you consider that at least 1/4 of those stats were obtained in trash time.

Did the Bills play poorly in the 2nd half? Sure. Defensively, they refused to give in, and were content to let GB run the ball. They tackled like garbage. Edmunds sucked. The safeties sucked. They could've had Jones stopped for a minimal game on several plays, but he got out of it and made several big gains. It's something they need to clean up, I agree. But to say they were totally dominated is just ignorant and stupid.

[Forward_Lateral]

First half stats:

Net Yards

Bills 234 GB 132

Passing

Bills 129 GB 62

Rushing

Bills 107 GB 83

Bills drives: Punt, TD, TD, TD, FG

GB Drives: Downs, Punt, TD, Punt

No idea, how on God's green earth, you could say that The Bills did NOT dominate the first half. You either weren't watching, or you are a troll on levels even OPI couldn't compete with.

[Woodman]

Gotta earn your wins in this league.

I'll stick with this observation.

[notacon]

Buffalo was completely dominated in every facet of the game except for the most important stat...the scoreboard.

Nonsense. Total unmanaged loser-talk nonsense.

[sukie]

Nonsense. Total unmanaged loser-talk nonsense.
Bills owned the first half massively other than TOP

[mightysimi]

I didn't like the packers putting on tape a recipe for succeeding against us in the run game. We have 3 running teams in our division.

[sukie]

I didn't like the packers putting on tape a recipe for succeeding against us in the run game. We have 3 running teams in our division.

I look at it as Frazier was refusing to drop out of his 2 high safety. Run all you want. It eats clock and eventually you get stopped or a hold call. Buffalo didn’t want Rodgers to play action and launch. They weren’t REALLY running well until 2nd half consistently and they were down 17.

[Skooby]

It was a laugher until we stopped pressing them.

[notacon]

I look at it as Frazier was refusing to drop out of his 2 high safety. Run all you want. It eats clock and eventually you get stopped or a hold call. Buffalo didn’t want Rodgers to play action and launch. They weren’t REALLY running well until 2nd half consistently and they were down 17.
Exactly. The Pack started a strategy that teams employ if they are 17 point AHEAD, not behind.

It accomplished what the Bills desired. Eat up clock without doing much damage.

The game’s outcome was never in doubt.

If Josh did not have a couple of brain farts reverting to his (we thought was gone) hero ball, the ending score would have been larger.

As it is, Joe B’s pre-game thoughts were eerily prescient. (https://theathletic.com/3737895/2022/10/28/5-bills-thoughts-prediction-vs-packers/)....




Prediction: Bills 27, Packers 17


This score seems closer than the game will feel by the end of things. The Packers have an outstanding defensive line that should be able to have an impact against pieces of the Bills’ offensive line. And the Bills will also have to contend with a team that blitzes at the second-highest rate (41.3 percent). Because of that pressure, there could be early lulls for the offense, but once they settle in, they can race out to a big lead against a Packers offense that lacks firepower. The 10-point game is mostly due to Rodgers potentially crawling the Packers back into the game with some late scores, but it might be far too late for it to matter. I expect the Bills to handle their business at home once again and keep themselves atop the AFC standings.

[mightysimi]

Is it really different than passing if you are getting 8 yards a run? The clock still runs on completed passes.

[Historian]

I said 34-16.

If he doesn't throw the second int, that would have pretty much been the score.

[YardRat]

Total Yards: GB 398 Buffalo 369

Rushing Yards GB 208 Buffalo 153

Passing Yards GB 190 Buffalo 216

First downs GB 21 Buffalo 20

TOP GB 33:48 Buffalo 26:12

Nothing about that screams "total domination" by the Packers. Nothing. Even less so, if you consider that at least 1/4 of those stats were obtained in trash time.

Did the Bills play poorly in the 2nd half? Sure. Defensively, they refused to give in, and were content to let GB run the ball. They tackled like garbage. Edmunds sucked. The safeties sucked. They could've had Jones stopped for a minimal game on several plays, but he got out of it and made several big gains. It's something they need to clean up, I agree. But to say they were totally dominated is just ignorant and stupid.


First half stats:

Net Yards

Bills 234 GB 132

Passing

Bills 129 GB 62

Rushing

Bills 107 GB 83

Bills drives: Punt, TD, TD, TD, FG

GB Drives: Downs, Punt, TD, Punt

No idea, how on God's green earth, you could say that The Bills did NOT dominate the first half. You either weren't watching, or you are a troll on levels even OPI couldn't compete with.

I recall very different stats being shown during the game, but if those are accurate I'll stand corrected.

[Mace]

In the end, the answer was "no". I'll take it.

Better to have them tune up after a messy win than after a bad loss. Style points are great, we all want them, but hey, sometimes they're irrelevant.

On to next week and see what happens.

[Novacane]

Buffalo was completely dominated in every facet of the game except for the most important stat...the scoreboard.

Huh? The only stat GB dominated was time of possession.

[Buffalogic]

Bills got bored in the second half and Josh was forcing the ball for tds because of the huge lead. It led to some ints that he's now upset about so we probably won't see that again anytime soon.

Gb ran the ball because the bills let them. The only way they could get back in the game was multiple long pass plays. Gb running and eating up the clock was a win for the bills.

This team is so good they are sometimes going to have to resist goofing off with a huge lead. Another good lesson learned. And learning what not to do while still winning is the best way to do it.

But make no mistake, the bills blew them out.

[Forward_Lateral]

I recall very different stats being shown during the game, but if those are accurate I'll stand corrected.

Those are the stats.

Rodgers had 75 passing yards with 10 min left in the game.

There was domination by one team. Buffalo.