Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Just a general gauging of the temperature of Bills fever, and I feel a very subdued mood around the Bills for the upcoming game, probably the biggest game on the rest of NFL schedule. Everyone is looking at it as a "pick" game.

I'm not trying to go to strategy on the game here. Just overall, the feel is very different from when the Bills were planning the Chiefs game earlier this season. This is only the other game where you may say we don't have a clear QB advantage. That's where the weapons and coaching coming into the equation a lot more. It is clear that the Bengals have a lot more offensive weapons than the Bills. And coaching wise, how the Bengals D handled Mahomes and Andy Reed makes you appreciate what their defensive coaching staff has done.

On paper, the Bills D have more talent than their D. But you also have to admit the Bills secondary, even with Tre White in the lineup, is not as stout as in the past years. Opposing stud wide receivers had their way with the Bills secondary, and now you have Burrow instead of the like of Cousins and Tua throwing the ball.

Not really a surprise, but it comes down to Josh's play. He probably needs last year's performance at Foxborough to get us this win. If Burrow matches Allen's performance next Monday, I'd be shocked the Bills could walk out Cincinnati with a W.

We can dream ... if we all have a happy night next Monday, the Bills are not likely to play another road game until ... the superbowl.

[sukie]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

Burrow is a short game master. Not worried about the over the top stuff. This is where pass rush is key. The 425 base formation is to stop the pass. Edmunds needs to be a factor in this game. Rousseau needs to overpower the substitute tackle. Need Shaq to cause havoc.

offense needs Diggs involved some how some way. Diggs Not getting 100+ means doom.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

The Bills are 6-0 in non-Sunday games, 7-0 if you include prime time games Sunday night. In those 7 games, Josh has 19 TDs and 5 INTs.

Joe Burrow is 1-4 vs the Browns. He lost to PIT, CLE, and BAL this year, each of whom we beat.

You can use stats/facts to argue any position you want.

The truth is, if we have Josh Allen we can win any game on our schedule. Until we lose, I'm going to assume we can win because that's more fun. I'm not afraid of the Bengals.

[Mace]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

I think Allen remains gimped and they've throttled down the offense accordingly. Not sure what he's capable of beyond that.

That's why I'm pretty somber about this game, and the playoffs. The offense isn't capable of the dynamics they had before the bye.

[sukie]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

If they were throttling the offense the routes would be dink and dunk shorties.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

I think it's mental, not physical, Mace.

The end of last year Allen will beat the Bengals. This year's Rams game Allen will beat the Bengals.

The Bears game Allen won't cut it. The Pats game Allen? Very close.

I agree with some analysis out there that Burrow arm strength is not at the Mahomes, Allen, Herbert's level. He has always been a taking underneath pass guy throughout his career. Mahomes and Allen are more of Rodgers mode that they HAVE to be coached down to not using their big arm for killer shots all the time. Mahomes has Andy Reed who is a master in calling plays forcing Mahomes to throw short and getting into rhythm at some point in a game. It took Allen awhile but we all thought Daboll finally got him to do the same at the end of last year. But this year, it is noticeable that short, middle of the field passes were far fewer under Dorsey. Maybe it is the personnel; we don't know for sure.

It is funny that when I was watching the Packers and Dolphins game on Christmas day, there was a play: 4th and 2, the Packers were going for it; Rodgers over threw Watson on a deep shot. I said right away Allen and Mahomes would do the same --- because Watson was open. But I know guys like Brady and Burrow will look for easier play in that situation.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

Uppy was "subdude"

[Mace]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

If they were throttling the offense the routes would be dink and dunk shorties.

All you have to do is look at their stats pre and post bye and your eyes can even see the difference in performance. They're running more now because they have to. It's throttled down, it's not at all the same attack.

[Mace]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

I think it's mental, not physical, Mace.

The end of last year Allen will beat the Bengals. This year's Rams game Allen will beat the Bengals.

The Bears game Allen won't cut it. The Pats game Allen? Very close.

I agree with some analysis out there that Burrow arm strength is not at the Mahomes, Allen, Herbert's level. He has always been a taking underneath pass guy throughout his career. Mahomes and Allen are more of Rodgers mode that they HAVE to be coached down to not using their big arm for killer shots all the time. Mahomes has Andy Reed who is a master in calling plays forcing Mahomes to throw short and getting into rhythm at some point in a game. It took Allen awhile but we all thought Daboll finally got him to do the same at the end of last year. But this year, it is noticeable that short, middle of the field passes were far fewer under Dorsey. Maybe it is the personnel; we don't know for sure.

It is funny that when I was watching the Packers and Dolphins game on Christmas day, there was a play: 4th and 2, the Packers were going for it; Rodgers over threw Watson on a deep shot. I said right away Allen and Mahomes would do the same --- because Watson was open. But I know guys like Brady and Burrow will look for easier play in that situation.

I think it is physical. But if it is mental, that's real bad because Allen crumpled in his head at the bye. Just doesn't seem indicative of Allen to me. Eventually we'll find out. Not a good time though.

[acehole]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

I dont think so. They have had a season with every game they had something to prove....I think internally they are thinking...." if we can beat someone that was in the super bowl last year we prove we are the real deal and we belong"

If I were coach I would be making a point of that.

If there were ever a time to use the blitz it is now. I would not let him get comfortable BACK THERE.

... lets play our game sloppy or not we cant let up for home field.

[sukie]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

I dont think so. They have had a season with every game they had something to prove....I think internally they are thinking...." if we can beat someone that was in the super bowl last year we prove we are the real deal and we belong"

If I were coach I would be making a point of that.

If there were ever a time to use the blitz it is now. I would not let him get comfortable BACK THERE.

... lets play our game sloppy or not we cant let up for home field.

They already beat a superbowl team. All the talking heads that I see are taking the bengals in this one.

almost unanimously from what I see.

there is the extra motivation

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

Here's some stats:

Bills before the bye: 440 OYPG, 280 DYPG
After the bye: 370 OYPG, 360 DYPG

The good news is that after the bye, the points per 100 yards remains in the Bill's advantage, 7.1 OPPG/100YDS, 5.8 DPPG/100YDS.

What does that indicate? The offense is able to convert drives into more points than the D gives up, yard for yard.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

Worst game of the year was at Miami, Bills scored 3.8 points per 100 yards, and the D let in 9.9 points per 100 yards.

The close win games:
@Ravens, 7.1 vs 6.8
@KC 5.4 vs 5.2
@Detroit 7.0 vs 7.7
vs Dolphins 7.2 vs 7.2

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

Someone (offense weapon) has to step up, big time. Last year, Singletary and then Davis.

This year, I'm hoping for Cook. The dude has really seemed to get it now, ALL aspect of his game. He runs more decisive, truly understands how to make himself available for Josh in friendly passing lanes, and even blocks a bit when called upon.

[sukie]

Re: Subdued Mood for the Bengals Game

Someone (offense weapon) has to step up, big time. Last year, Singletary and then Davis.

This year, I'm hoping for Cook. The dude has really seemed to get it now, ALL aspect of his game. He runs more decisive, truly understands how to make himself available for Josh in friendly passing lanes, and even blocks a bit when called upon.

I agree but WRs not named Diggs need to impress.