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Ok, so this season was a wash, and i got to admit, it was ended by the one team in the AFC I thought could do it to us. The reality is this team is suffering from a few issues which I'm not sure how to easily fix.
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Defense-
Currently the Bills are scheming their way to success on defense. and they have been since McD and Frasier got here. This is an evolution of the Tampa2 defense combined with some of the early 2010's Seahawks... they basically are cycling through cover2, cover3, cover6 while living in their nickel defense.
This isn't an awful scheme. In fact it's right on the cutting edge of what defenses are trying to do these days. However there are a couple of problem which do get exposed with it.
1) an accurate QB can carve it up if you don't get pressure
2) like most primarily zone defense, you can get away with short and slow cornerbacks to play the scheme, this makes the defense very attractive from a salary cap perspective, and even a team building perspective, but again, it can be a bit dependent on smoke and mirrors to work, and with an accurate QB it sorta falls apart if you can't get pressure.
3) If you fill your team with a bunch of small zone defense DBs, when your opponent forces you to play man, you basically can't. Now in the Bills defense they did draft Elam with an eye toward becoming more capable of playing man defense, but with white out all year, and all the other injuries to our secondary you never really saw the bills try to mix in much man defense
4) we simply don't have a good Sam backer on this roster, so when teams come out in 21 or 12 personnel and try to run the ball we don't really have an option to get bigger.
Now you CAN win a superbowl with this type of scheme, but to do it you need top tier defensive linemen. I'm not talking B+ type defensive linemen, you need probowl level defensive linemen, because you basically need the front 4 to generate a passrush and you need them to stop the run. Without that level of defensive linemen, you're gonna end up on the short end of a game like tonight.
Some thoughts for the future (Defense)
If we intend to keep playing this defense, we need to free up cap space where it shouldn't be spent. Which means tre white, poyar and hyde all got to go. This defense requires serious dline talent, talent we don't really have. we have a lot of "good" defensive linemen, but other then Miller, none are great. We need a great DT; and probably another great pass rushing DE. and we need the money freed up to get there. We probably need to move on from Edmunds as well; while i don't really have a beef with him like many do around here; he doesn't bring anything to the table we can't get elsewhere for the same or less money. furthermore he really lacks instincts and is very poor getting off blocks; which is a bad thing if you're going to play nickel all year.
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Offense -
Every time i watch tape of the Bills offense i get more and more frustrated. The WRs constantly run bad routes. CONSTANTLY. With Gabe Davis and McKenzie at the top of the problem child list. They don't space the routes right, they read the defense wrong on an option route, they round their routs off at the wrong depth, they don't come to the ball. It's really bad on tape, and watching it makes it really obvious what's wrong with the passing offense.
-Bad route running; which creates
-indecision for the QB
How does one create the other? Well if you're running dagger (basically a skinny post from the slot, and an in route from the outside WR) on the right hand side of the formation, and the defense is in some type cover 4, which dagger should get open (especially the backside in route), and the play requires timing and good route running, and your back side in runs a **** pattern, and instead of being properly spaced, and timed, ends up almost overlapping the post guy, who instead of running a post runs a sloppy slant, not pressuring the safeties or lbs properly allowing 1 defender to cover both of them, what the **** is the QB supposed to do? And yes, i'm citing a specific play that happened today. ****ing McKenzie and Davis, Davis was too shallow on the post running what looked like a slant, McKenzie too shallow on his in route (and broke in way too fast, and before you know it the whole route combo was ****ed up and you see JA look off the coverage, come back to the back side, on a in route and post that should have someone open only to see both dip****s basically in each other's laps with one defender easily covering both. and now he has to clutch the ball with an o-line collapsing on him.
It was the right call against the right defense, and two WRs ****ed the whole thing up. I think this was the play he went back frontside and under pressure sailed the pass over diggs head in the endzone. I don't blame JA at all for that. Had it been run right, McKenzie might have been able to dance into the endzone. instead, nothing. we get 3 on the drive i think.
but this type of **** happens all over the field this year (and this game); there was a play against NY that pops into my head where nearly the same thing happens there too, only instead of dagger they're running double slants, and McKenzie runs his slant so shallow the Jets were able to cover both him and davis with one guy (JA might have thrown an INT on that play, after coming back intending to throw to McKenzie on time, only to see him 5-10 yards out of position and covered, double clutch, scramble, maybe an int, i don't remember how it ended i just remember pulling my hair out watching that play).
Both of them have to go. Problem is outside of Diggs, this offense is filled with above average (at best) players in every position. Now the problems with Davis and McKenzie i think should be laid on your OC and how he's running practice. I don't remember Daibol's teams having problems like this with route running and timing. And that seems to be the biggest problem with our passing game. JA looks indecisive because almost no one is where they're supposed to be. either they're reading the defense wrong and running the wrong option route, or they're running a bad route, turning what should be an easy pitch and catch into nothing, and now JA has to start to scramble, by some time and hope someone gets open. you can't run an offense like that. yet it's what we've been asking JA to do all year.
Some of the problems of course are Josh's fault as well, but i think those problems stem from a lack of confidence in his WRs and scheme. They aren't where they're supposed to be, so he starts to improvise, combine this with a crappy offensive line, and you see the problems our QB is facing. He no longer believes guys will be where they're supposed to be. So he's overthinking things. For example, lets say, a play is a dagger against cover 3, there should be a couple of guys open but he's seen nothing from the dagger concept all game because most of the WR crew runs it wrong. So what's he going to do? Is he going to throw the ball to the two numbskulls running the concept or is he going to go bombs away with the WR running down the sideline against 1 high safety?
He's going to go bombs away, even though the dagger concept might have popped a guy free that down.
I can't blame our QB for this. The offense is out of gear, he has ****ty protection, and even when he throws a perfect pass it's a coinflip if some of our WRs will even catch the ball when it hits them in the hands.
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Special Teams
I actually don't have any real complaints about our special teams. Generally they've been pretty good.
This team needs to spend some real money on the lines. It also needs to revamp the WR room. bringing back Beasley is nice, and i think he gave Josh a target he actually trusts for a change, someone who will be where he's supposed to be, but this team needs to move on from Davis and McKenzie because it doesn't seem like josh has much trust in either of them. If i were making changes to the coaching staff i think i'd replace Dorsey. The offense got more disjointed as the season went on, and when you look at them on tape you can see why. The WR coach needs to go to. The o-line needs a major revamping as well, and if the bills chose to spend every draft pick on o-line and dline i wouldn't hate it.
In the end i think there are some major changes needed in the following positions
OC, WR coach, Oline, WR, Dline, MLB, Safety, and CB.
I'll leave RB off the list because i think our Running game might look significantly better with a better oline.
---
Defense-
Currently the Bills are scheming their way to success on defense. and they have been since McD and Frasier got here. This is an evolution of the Tampa2 defense combined with some of the early 2010's Seahawks... they basically are cycling through cover2, cover3, cover6 while living in their nickel defense.
This isn't an awful scheme. In fact it's right on the cutting edge of what defenses are trying to do these days. However there are a couple of problem which do get exposed with it.
1) an accurate QB can carve it up if you don't get pressure
2) like most primarily zone defense, you can get away with short and slow cornerbacks to play the scheme, this makes the defense very attractive from a salary cap perspective, and even a team building perspective, but again, it can be a bit dependent on smoke and mirrors to work, and with an accurate QB it sorta falls apart if you can't get pressure.
3) If you fill your team with a bunch of small zone defense DBs, when your opponent forces you to play man, you basically can't. Now in the Bills defense they did draft Elam with an eye toward becoming more capable of playing man defense, but with white out all year, and all the other injuries to our secondary you never really saw the bills try to mix in much man defense
4) we simply don't have a good Sam backer on this roster, so when teams come out in 21 or 12 personnel and try to run the ball we don't really have an option to get bigger.
Now you CAN win a superbowl with this type of scheme, but to do it you need top tier defensive linemen. I'm not talking B+ type defensive linemen, you need probowl level defensive linemen, because you basically need the front 4 to generate a passrush and you need them to stop the run. Without that level of defensive linemen, you're gonna end up on the short end of a game like tonight.
Some thoughts for the future (Defense)
If we intend to keep playing this defense, we need to free up cap space where it shouldn't be spent. Which means tre white, poyar and hyde all got to go. This defense requires serious dline talent, talent we don't really have. we have a lot of "good" defensive linemen, but other then Miller, none are great. We need a great DT; and probably another great pass rushing DE. and we need the money freed up to get there. We probably need to move on from Edmunds as well; while i don't really have a beef with him like many do around here; he doesn't bring anything to the table we can't get elsewhere for the same or less money. furthermore he really lacks instincts and is very poor getting off blocks; which is a bad thing if you're going to play nickel all year.
----
Offense -
Every time i watch tape of the Bills offense i get more and more frustrated. The WRs constantly run bad routes. CONSTANTLY. With Gabe Davis and McKenzie at the top of the problem child list. They don't space the routes right, they read the defense wrong on an option route, they round their routs off at the wrong depth, they don't come to the ball. It's really bad on tape, and watching it makes it really obvious what's wrong with the passing offense.
-Bad route running; which creates
-indecision for the QB
How does one create the other? Well if you're running dagger (basically a skinny post from the slot, and an in route from the outside WR) on the right hand side of the formation, and the defense is in some type cover 4, which dagger should get open (especially the backside in route), and the play requires timing and good route running, and your back side in runs a **** pattern, and instead of being properly spaced, and timed, ends up almost overlapping the post guy, who instead of running a post runs a sloppy slant, not pressuring the safeties or lbs properly allowing 1 defender to cover both of them, what the **** is the QB supposed to do? And yes, i'm citing a specific play that happened today. ****ing McKenzie and Davis, Davis was too shallow on the post running what looked like a slant, McKenzie too shallow on his in route (and broke in way too fast, and before you know it the whole route combo was ****ed up and you see JA look off the coverage, come back to the back side, on a in route and post that should have someone open only to see both dip****s basically in each other's laps with one defender easily covering both. and now he has to clutch the ball with an o-line collapsing on him.
It was the right call against the right defense, and two WRs ****ed the whole thing up. I think this was the play he went back frontside and under pressure sailed the pass over diggs head in the endzone. I don't blame JA at all for that. Had it been run right, McKenzie might have been able to dance into the endzone. instead, nothing. we get 3 on the drive i think.
but this type of **** happens all over the field this year (and this game); there was a play against NY that pops into my head where nearly the same thing happens there too, only instead of dagger they're running double slants, and McKenzie runs his slant so shallow the Jets were able to cover both him and davis with one guy (JA might have thrown an INT on that play, after coming back intending to throw to McKenzie on time, only to see him 5-10 yards out of position and covered, double clutch, scramble, maybe an int, i don't remember how it ended i just remember pulling my hair out watching that play).
Both of them have to go. Problem is outside of Diggs, this offense is filled with above average (at best) players in every position. Now the problems with Davis and McKenzie i think should be laid on your OC and how he's running practice. I don't remember Daibol's teams having problems like this with route running and timing. And that seems to be the biggest problem with our passing game. JA looks indecisive because almost no one is where they're supposed to be. either they're reading the defense wrong and running the wrong option route, or they're running a bad route, turning what should be an easy pitch and catch into nothing, and now JA has to start to scramble, by some time and hope someone gets open. you can't run an offense like that. yet it's what we've been asking JA to do all year.
Some of the problems of course are Josh's fault as well, but i think those problems stem from a lack of confidence in his WRs and scheme. They aren't where they're supposed to be, so he starts to improvise, combine this with a crappy offensive line, and you see the problems our QB is facing. He no longer believes guys will be where they're supposed to be. So he's overthinking things. For example, lets say, a play is a dagger against cover 3, there should be a couple of guys open but he's seen nothing from the dagger concept all game because most of the WR crew runs it wrong. So what's he going to do? Is he going to throw the ball to the two numbskulls running the concept or is he going to go bombs away with the WR running down the sideline against 1 high safety?
He's going to go bombs away, even though the dagger concept might have popped a guy free that down.
I can't blame our QB for this. The offense is out of gear, he has ****ty protection, and even when he throws a perfect pass it's a coinflip if some of our WRs will even catch the ball when it hits them in the hands.
---
Special Teams
I actually don't have any real complaints about our special teams. Generally they've been pretty good.
This team needs to spend some real money on the lines. It also needs to revamp the WR room. bringing back Beasley is nice, and i think he gave Josh a target he actually trusts for a change, someone who will be where he's supposed to be, but this team needs to move on from Davis and McKenzie because it doesn't seem like josh has much trust in either of them. If i were making changes to the coaching staff i think i'd replace Dorsey. The offense got more disjointed as the season went on, and when you look at them on tape you can see why. The WR coach needs to go to. The o-line needs a major revamping as well, and if the bills chose to spend every draft pick on o-line and dline i wouldn't hate it.
In the end i think there are some major changes needed in the following positions
OC, WR coach, Oline, WR, Dline, MLB, Safety, and CB.
I'll leave RB off the list because i think our Running game might look significantly better with a better oline.
& 
too!!
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