2023 Roster Analysis

[YardRat]

Under Contract---37---(reserve/future)---13

QB--Allen (Barkley)
RB--Cook, Hines
FB--Gilliam
WR--Diggs, Davis, McKenzie,Shakir, Coulter (KS.Johnson, D.Patmon)
TE--Knox, Morris (Z.Davidson)
C--Morse
G--Bates,
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown
OL--(A.Anderson, G.Mancz, R.Van Demark)


DT--Oliver, Jones, Settle (E.Ankou, C.Broughton, B.Bryant)
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, Vickers (K.Jonathon)
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (J.Ingram, K.McMichael)
S--Hyde, Hamlin, Mayden


PK--Bass
P--
LS--Ferguson


RFA---3

LB--Dodsen
CB--Jackson, Lewis

UFA---21

QB--Keenum
RB--Singletary, TJones
WR--Crowder, Kumerow
TE--Sweeney
G--Saffold, Van Roten, Boettger, Hart
OT--Quissenbery, Murray

DT--Phillips
DE--Lawson
LB--Edmunds, Matekevitch, Klein
S--Poyer, Marlowe, Johnson

P--Martin

Projected salary cap (over/under)(per Spotrac)

$226.7 million
current contracts $247 million (minus $20,500,000...over)

Draft picks--

Rd 1 #27
Rd 2 #59
Rd 3 #91
Rd 4 #128
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
Rd 5 #160

[YardRat]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

For reference only at the moment

[YardRat]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

OK, so away we go...

Obviously nobody knows real numbers and everybody is just spit-balling the cap adjustments but I'll use figures that have already been speculated, mostly by spotrac.

Restructure--

--Josh Allen, salary to bonus, saves $21 million.
--Naheim Hines, straight restructure or cut-and-re-sign, saves $2.4 million.
--Mitch Morse, extension, saves $3 million.
--Taron Johnson, salary to bonus, saves $4.2 million.
--Micah Hyde, extension, saves $4.5 million.
(total cap savings from above = $35.1 million, $14.6 under)

I know Hines and Morse are popular projections for cuts for cap savings, but IMO A) Hines wasn't acquired at mid-season to only stay a half year and then be booted, he's already proven his value as a returner and he should be used more offensively with an off-season learning the playbook under his belt and B) Beane completely fubared the center and interior linebacker situations by not addressing them the last two off-seasons, there just isn't anybody adequate to replace Morse next year. If Mitch decides to retire due to health concerns I certainly wouldn't blame him but the o-line situation would become completely screwed instead of just mostly. He's a team leader, probably the only one in the oline room capable of being one, and just too valuable to cut loose.

Trade--

--Isaiah McKenzie for a 7th, saves $2.2 million.
--AJ Epenesa for a 5th, saves $1.4 million.
--Ed Oliver for a 3rd, saves $10.75 million.
(total cap savings from above = $14.35 million, $28.95 million under)

McKenzie and Epenesa are too easily replaceable and too underwhelming in production. Unfortunately we won't get much in return for either and quite honestly I'm betting a longshot that Daboll might be willing to give up a pick to add Isaiah to his WR room for a season. Really don't like the possibility of unloading Oliver, but objectively speaking he isn't that much higher on the disappointment scale than Edmunds and he probably has the best combination of return value and cap savings on the roster.

Cut--

--Tim Settle, saves $2.2 million
(total cap savings = $2.2 million, $31.15 million under)

His spot in the rotation can be easily replaced, for cheaper, with a rookie draft pick, UDFA, and give Bryant a legitimate shot at making the final 53 on the interior.

Also, I've still got restructure flexibility with Dawkins ($6.15 million savings), Tre' White ($5.9 million), Milano ($6.6 million), Diggs( $5.6 million), and Von ($10.9 million) in my back pocket if I absolutely need it. Certainly some doable options, but in their cases it means kicking a lot of money into future years which just pushes the cap dilemma down the road.

[Mace]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

I had higher hopes for McKenzie, Epenesa, Settle and Oliver, but have to agree.

[YardRat]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

The rookie pool is expected to be ~ $7.3 million with a cap effect of ~ $2.8 million, if the team remains at the 6 picks they have currently.

https://overthecap.com/draft

[TacklingDummy]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

Rd 1 #27 Top WR or OL on board
Rd 2 #59 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R1
Rd 3 #91 DT or S
Rd 4 #128 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R3
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona) LB
Rd 5 #160 highest player left on board that plays either Secondary, Oline, or DT.

[Woodman]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

I had higher hopes for McKenzie, Epenesa, Settle and Oliver, but have to agree.

Agree with this and I'd add Davis.

[Woodman]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

Rd 1 #27 Top WR or OL on board
Rd 2 #59 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R1
Rd 3 #91 DT or S
Rd 4 #128 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R3
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona) LB
Rd 5 #160 highest player left on board that plays either Secondary, Oline, or DT.

Like it ..... would love to add a RB bull as well.

[TacklingDummy]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

Like it ..... would love to add a RB bull as well.

They can roll with Cook, Hines, FA, undrafted rookie.

They need someone to open up holes for the running back.

[Woodman]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

They can roll with Cook, Hines, FA, undrafted rookie.

They need someone to open up holes for the running back.

My 1st priority is the trenches.

My 2nd priority is the trenches.

Build a great line and any RB could operate behind it.

Protect the franchise and add a REAL WEAPON!

[YardRat]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

So I'm going to move forward under the premise Oliver, McKenzie and Epenesa are traded, and Settle is cut.
Also assuming the following will end up being cuts...WR Coulter, DE Vickers, S Mayden...and Hamlin starts the season on PUP.


Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

QB--Allen (1)--1
RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
FB--Gilliam (1)--0
WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, (3)--4
TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
C--Morse (1)--1
G--Bates (1)--2
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


DT--Jones, Settle (2)--2
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham,(3)--2
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, (3)--2
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (5)--1
S--Hyde (1)--3


PK--Bass (1)--0
P--(0)--1
LS--Ferguson (1)--0

30 roster spots filled, 22 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad)


Edit---the additional three cuts and Hamlin add ~$3.793mil to the cap, current status = ~$34,943,500 under.


Projected draft picks after trades...


Rd 1 #27
Rd 2 #59
Rd 3 #91
Rd 3 ??
Rd 4 #128
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
Rd 6 #205
Rd 5 ??
Rd 7 ??

[Night Train]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

For reference only at the moment

It still is.

Off-season hasn't started yet.

[YardRat]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

Priority #1---Safety. It's going to hurt but IMO they bring back Poyer on a three year deal, hoping to get two out of him, and his cap hit in '23 will be similar to Hydes ($10.5mil)

Priority #2---Linebacker. I would try and correct last season's mistake and dangle a couple of picks to Jacksonville in exchange for Chad Muma ($951k cap hit) or Dallas for Damone Clark ($870k cap hit). Muma is probably more realistic because A) Jax already has fellow rookie Lloyd starting and playing very well, and B) Clark is probably taking VanderEsch's starting spot in '23.

[TacklingDummy]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

I’d be interested in…

WR: OBJ, Beasley, Jacobi Meyers, JuJu
RB: Undrafted rookie
LT: Orlando Brown moving Dawkins to guard
DT: Da’Ron Payne, Shy Tuttle
DE: DeMarcus Walker

[EDS]

Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

So I'm going to move forward under the premise Oliver, McKenzie and Epenesa are traded, and Settle is cut.
Also assuming the following will end up being cuts...WR Coulter, DE Vickers, S Mayden...and Hamlin starts the season on PUP.


Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

QB--Allen (1)--1
RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
FB--Gilliam (1)--0
WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, (3)--4
TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
C--Morse (1)--1
G--Bates (1)--2
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


DT--Jones, Settle (2)--2
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham,(3)--2
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, (3)--2
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (5)--1
S--Hyde (1)--3


PK--Bass (1)--0
P--(0)--1
LS--Ferguson (1)--0

30 roster spots filled, 22 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad)


Edit---the additional three cuts and Hamlin add ~$3.793mil to the cap, current status = ~$34,943,500 under.


Projected draft picks after trades...


Rd 1 #27
Rd 2 #59
Rd 3 #91
Rd 3 ??
Rd 4 #128
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
Rd 5 #160
Rd 5 ??
Rd 7 ??

Lot of work to be done this off-season.

To me, since Allen is the franchise and the depth chart is non-existent, the team is going to have to invest big on the oline this offseason - most importantly a free agent starting tackle and one free agent guard who can at least compete to start (plus a relatively early draft pick on an interior lineman who also can compete to start).