2023 Roster Analysis

[YardRat]

Under Contract---37---(reserve/future)---13

QB--Allen (Barkley)
RB--Cook, Hines
FB--Gilliam
WR--Diggs, Davis, McKenzie,Shakir, Coulter (KS.Johnson, D.Patmon)
TE--Knox, Morris (Z.Davidson)
C--Morse
G--Bates,
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown
OL--(A.Anderson, G.Mancz, R.Van Demark)


DT--Oliver, Jones, Settle (E.Ankou, C.Broughton, B.Bryant)
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, Vickers (K.Jonathon)
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (J.Ingram, K.McMichael)
S--Hyde, Hamlin, Mayden


PK--Bass
P--
LS--Ferguson


RFA---3

LB--Dodsen
CB--Jackson, Lewis

UFA---21

QB--Keenum
RB--Singletary, TJones
WR--Crowder, Kumerow
TE--Sweeney
G--Saffold, Van Roten, Boettger, Hart
OT--Quissenbery, Murray

DT--Phillips
DE--Lawson
LB--Edmunds, Matekevitch, Klein
S--Poyer, Marlowe, Johnson

P--Martin

Projected salary cap (over/under)(per Spotrac)

$226.7 million
current contracts $247 million (minus $20,500,000...over)

Draft picks--

Rd 1 #27
Rd 2 #59
Rd 3 #91
Rd 4 #128
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
Rd 5 #160

[YardRat]

For reference only at the moment

[YardRat]

OK, so away we go...

Obviously nobody knows real numbers and everybody is just spit-balling the cap adjustments but I'll use figures that have already been speculated, mostly by spotrac.

Restructure--

--Josh Allen, salary to bonus, saves $21 million.
--Naheim Hines, straight restructure or cut-and-re-sign, saves $2.4 million.
--Mitch Morse, extension, saves $3 million.
--Taron Johnson, salary to bonus, saves $4.2 million.
--Micah Hyde, extension, saves $4.5 million.
(total cap savings from above = $35.1 million, $14.6 under)

I know Hines and Morse are popular projections for cuts for cap savings, but IMO A) Hines wasn't acquired at mid-season to only stay a half year and then be booted, he's already proven his value as a returner and he should be used more offensively with an off-season learning the playbook under his belt and B) Beane completely fubared the center and interior linebacker situations by not addressing them the last two off-seasons, there just isn't anybody adequate to replace Morse next year. If Mitch decides to retire due to health concerns I certainly wouldn't blame him but the o-line situation would become completely screwed instead of just mostly. He's a team leader, probably the only one in the oline room capable of being one, and just too valuable to cut loose.

Trade--

--Isaiah McKenzie for a 7th, saves $2.2 million.
--AJ Epenesa for a 5th, saves $1.4 million.
--Ed Oliver for a 3rd, saves $10.75 million.
(total cap savings from above = $14.35 million, $28.95 million under)

McKenzie and Epenesa are too easily replaceable and too underwhelming in production. Unfortunately we won't get much in return for either and quite honestly I'm betting a longshot that Daboll might be willing to give up a pick to add Isaiah to his WR room for a season. Really don't like the possibility of unloading Oliver, but objectively speaking he isn't that much higher on the disappointment scale than Edmunds and he probably has the best combination of return value and cap savings on the roster.

Cut--

--Tim Settle, saves $2.2 million
(total cap savings = $2.2 million, $31.15 million under)

His spot in the rotation can be easily replaced, for cheaper, with a rookie draft pick, UDFA, and give Bryant a legitimate shot at making the final 53 on the interior.

Also, I've still got restructure flexibility with Dawkins ($6.15 million savings), Tre' White ($5.9 million), Milano ($6.6 million), Diggs( $5.6 million), and Von ($10.9 million) in my back pocket if I absolutely need it. Certainly some doable options, but in their cases it means kicking a lot of money into future years which just pushes the cap dilemma down the road.

[Mace]

I had higher hopes for McKenzie, Epenesa, Settle and Oliver, but have to agree.

[YardRat]

The rookie pool is expected to be ~ $7.3 million with a cap effect of ~ $2.8 million, if the team remains at the 6 picks they have currently.

https://overthecap.com/draft

[TacklingDummy]

Rd 1 #27 Top WR or OL on board
Rd 2 #59 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R1
Rd 3 #91 DT or S
Rd 4 #128 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R3
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona) LB
Rd 5 #160 highest player left on board that plays either Secondary, Oline, or DT.

[Woodman]

I had higher hopes for McKenzie, Epenesa, Settle and Oliver, but have to agree.
Agree with this and I'd add Davis.

[Woodman]

Rd 1 #27 Top WR or OL on board
Rd 2 #59 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R1
Rd 3 #91 DT or S
Rd 4 #128 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R3
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona) LB
Rd 5 #160 highest player left on board that plays either Secondary, Oline, or DT.
Like it ..... would love to add a RB bull as well.

[TacklingDummy]

Like it ..... would love to add a RB bull as well.

They can roll with Cook, Hines, FA, undrafted rookie.

They need someone to open up holes for the running back.

[Woodman]

They can roll with Cook, Hines, FA, undrafted rookie.

They need someone to open up holes for the running back.
My 1st priority is the trenches.

My 2nd priority is the trenches.

Build a great line and any RB could operate behind it.

Protect the franchise and add a REAL WEAPON!

[YardRat]

So I'm going to move forward under the premise Oliver, McKenzie and Epenesa are traded, and Settle is cut.
Also assuming the following will end up being cuts...WR Coulter, DE Vickers, S Mayden...and Hamlin starts the season on PUP.


Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

QB--Allen (1)--1
RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
FB--Gilliam (1)--0
WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, (3)--4
TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
C--Morse (1)--1
G--Bates (1)--2
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


DT--Jones, Settle (2)--2
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham,(3)--2
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, (3)--2
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (5)--1
S--Hyde (1)--3


PK--Bass (1)--0
P--(0)--1
LS--Ferguson (1)--0

30 roster spots filled, 22 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad)


Edit---the additional three cuts and Hamlin add ~$3.793mil to the cap, current status = ~$34,943,500 under.


Projected draft picks after trades...


Rd 1 #27
Rd 2 #59
Rd 3 #91
Rd 3 ??
Rd 4 #128
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
Rd 6 #205
Rd 5 ??
Rd 7 ??

[Night Train]

For reference only at the moment

It still is.

Off-season hasn't started yet.

[YardRat]

Priority #1---Safety. It's going to hurt but IMO they bring back Poyer on a three year deal, hoping to get two out of him, and his cap hit in '23 will be similar to Hydes ($10.5mil)

Priority #2---Linebacker. I would try and correct last season's mistake and dangle a couple of picks to Jacksonville in exchange for Chad Muma ($951k cap hit) or Dallas for Damone Clark ($870k cap hit). Muma is probably more realistic because A) Jax already has fellow rookie Lloyd starting and playing very well, and B) Clark is probably taking VanderEsch's starting spot in '23.

[TacklingDummy]

I’d be interested in…

WR: OBJ, Beasley, Jacobi Meyers, JuJu
RB: Undrafted rookie
LT: Orlando Brown moving Dawkins to guard
DT: Da’Ron Payne, Shy Tuttle
DE: DeMarcus Walker

[EDS]

So I'm going to move forward under the premise Oliver, McKenzie and Epenesa are traded, and Settle is cut.
Also assuming the following will end up being cuts...WR Coulter, DE Vickers, S Mayden...and Hamlin starts the season on PUP.


Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

QB--Allen (1)--1
RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
FB--Gilliam (1)--0
WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, (3)--4
TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
C--Morse (1)--1
G--Bates (1)--2
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


DT--Jones, Settle (2)--2
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham,(3)--2
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, (3)--2
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (5)--1
S--Hyde (1)--3


PK--Bass (1)--0
P--(0)--1
LS--Ferguson (1)--0

30 roster spots filled, 22 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad)


Edit---the additional three cuts and Hamlin add ~$3.793mil to the cap, current status = ~$34,943,500 under.


Projected draft picks after trades...


Rd 1 #27
Rd 2 #59
Rd 3 #91
Rd 3 ??
Rd 4 #128
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
Rd 5 #160
Rd 5 ??
Rd 7 ??

Lot of work to be done this off-season.

To me, since Allen is the franchise and the depth chart is non-existent, the team is going to have to invest big on the oline this offseason - most importantly a free agent starting tackle and one free agent guard who can at least compete to start (plus a relatively early draft pick on an interior lineman who also can compete to start).

[Mr. Pink]

WR - I'd take a hard look at DJ Chark and see what kind of contract he's looking for. It's a thin WR market so he might be too expensive but if he's not looking for a huge deal he'd be an asset. He's a guy who can stretch the field something we sorely lack.

S - Vonn Bell. Again, depends on what kind of contract he's looking for. But in order for us to get to the Super Bowl we need someone who can pretend to cover Travis Kelce, I say pretend because no one really can. Bell is great in coverage when in comes to TEs.

LB - Drue Tranquill. Good in coverage, which are system predicates and let's be honest Edmunds was never good at coverage and Milano ain't much better. Tranquill would fill a need.

All three of those are based on what kind of money they'd be looking for as we'll be very thin on cap space but if we could snag one or two of them I think we'd be in a much better place next season.

Some cheaper FAs that warrant a look..

D'ernest Johnson RB, Julio Jones/Sterling Sheppard WR, Larry Ogunjobi DT, Jabrill Peppers S

[YardRat]

So they sign S Zayne Anderson for 2 years and the terms aren't public yet. Beane is going to have to sign some his own back to the team so the depth isn't as bare going into free agency and the draft.

FA's----S Anderson $ ?

UFA's---WR Beasley (or Crowder) $2 million...WR Kumerow (for teams) $1.2 million ...G Boettger $3.5 million (similar to Bates)...DT Phillips $3 million...DE Lawson $3 million...LB Matekevitch $2 million...P Martin $1.3 million

RFA's---I think they let LB Dodson and CB Jackson test the market because neither is worth the $2.6 million tender but both come back for about $1.75 each.

[Woodman]

RFA's---I think they let LB Dodson and CB Jackson test the market because neither is worth the $2.6 million tender but both come back for about $1.75 each.

Probably the case ..... nice job!

[YardRat]

So in my pretend GM dream world we sign S Poyer, ship our extra third and fifth to Jax for ILB Muma, and sign the list of returning vets from post #17...

Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

QB--Allen (1)--1
RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
FB--Gilliam (1)--0
WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, BEASLEY, KUMEROW (5)--2
TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
C--Morse (1)--1
G--Bates, BOETTGER (2)--1
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


DT--Jones, PHILLIPS (2)--2
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham, LAWSON (4)--1
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, MUMA , MATEKEVITCH , DODSEN (6)--0
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal, JACKSON (6)--0
S--Hyde, Anderson, (3)--2 or 3 (with Poyer leaving)


PK--Bass (1)--0
P-- MARTIN (0)--0
LS--Ferguson (1)--0

41 roster spots filled, 11 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad or Hamlin on PUP)
Edit--40 with Poyer walking





Projected draft picks after trades...


Rd 1 #27
Rd 2 #59
Rd 3 #91
Rd 3 ??---traded for Muma
Rd 4 #128
Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
Rd 6 #205
Rd 5 ??---traded for Muma
Rd 7 ??


$34,943,500 under less new contracts leaves us only $3,993,000 under the cap before free agency and the draft. Which means either more re-structuring needs to be done or some of the returning vets I targeted can't be brought back.

[YardRat]

I think I have to back off the re-signing Poyer train, he sounds as good as gone as gone can be..put his $10.5 back in the bank and the team is theoretically at $14.493 million under.

[Mace]

I think I have to back off the re-signing Poyer train, he sounds as good as gone as gone can be..put his $10.5 back in the bank and the team is theoretically at $14.493 million under.

It just can't be that same same junk defense again anyway.

[YardRat]

Draft targets...looks deep in safety, interior offensive line, and wide receiver. Good for us.

S-- Antonio Johnson Texas A & M...Sydney Brown, Illinois...Brandon Joseph Notre Dame...Ji' Ayir Brown Penn State...Trey Dean III Florida...Brandon Hill Pitt...Jordan Battle Alabama

WR---Josh Downs NC...Jalin Hyatt Tennessee...Cedric Tillman Tennessee...Charlie Jones Purdue

LB---Drew Sanders Arkansas...Jack Campbell Iowa...DeMarvion Overshown Texas

C---Luke Wypler Ohio State...Joe Tippman Wisconsin...Olusegon Oluwatimi Michigan

Dline---Karl Brooks Bowling Green...Byron Young Alabama...Cameron Young Mississippi

RB---Kenny McIntosh Georgia...Mohamed Ibrahim Minnesota

TE---Luke Schoonmaker Michigan

G---Jarrett Patterson Notre Dame

CB---Jakorian Bennett Maryland

Edge---Will McDonald IV Iowa State...Byron Young Tennessee

[YardRat]

Other than trading for one of last year's ILB's like Muma or Clark, I really don't have any free agent targets on my list this year that it looks like we can afford and would be an upgrade or adequate replacement. Beane is going to do his thing though and round out the roster position-wise so he has options at the draft, maybe even over-pay for a second/third-tier guy like LB Edwards, S Rapp or OG Davis as mentioned in other threads so we'll see what goes down in the next few weeks.

[Mace]

Other than trading for one of last year's ILB's like Muma or Clark, I really don't have any free agent targets on my list this year that it looks like we can afford and would be an upgrade or adequate replacement. Beane is going to do his thing though and round out the roster position-wise so he has options at the draft, maybe even over-pay for a second/third-tier guy like LB Edwards, S Rapp or OG Davis as mentioned in other threads so we'll see what goes down in the next few weeks.

I'm hoping Frazier Edmunds means they're changing their approach. Can always hope...

[Woodman]

I'm hoping Frazier Edmunds means they're changing their approach. Can always hope...

"The Dream" is alive.

[Mace]

"The Dream" is alive.

It keeps trying to be....I'm feeling old.

[YardRat]

Restructure--

--Josh Allen, salary to bonus, saves $21 million.
--Naheim Hines, straight restructure or cut-and-re-sign, saves $2.4 million.
--Mitch Morse, extension, saves $3 million.
--Taron Johnson, salary to bonus, saves $4.2 million.
--Micah Hyde, extension, saves $4.5 million.


Trade--

--Isaiah McKenzie for a 7th, saves $2.2 million. -CUT-
--AJ Epenesa for a 5th, saves $1.4 million.
--Ed Oliver for a 3rd, saves $10.75 million.


Cut--

--Tim Settle, saves $2.2 million...RE-SIGNED


Also, I've still got restructure flexibility with Dawkins ($6.15 million savings), Tre' White ($5.9 million), Milano ($6.6 million), Diggs( $5.6 million), and Von ($10.9 million) in my back pocket if I absolutely need it. Certainly some doable options, but in their cases it means kicking a lot of money into future years which just pushes the cap dilemma down the road.


Priority #1---Safety. It's going to hurt but IMO they bring back Poyer on a three year deal, hoping to get two out of him, and his cap hit in '23 will be similar to Hydes ($10.5mil)

Priority #2---Linebacker. I would try and correct last season's mistake and dangle a couple of picks to Jacksonville in exchange for Chad Muma ($951k cap hit) or Dallas for Damone Clark ($870k cap hit). Muma is probably more realistic because A) Jax already has fellow rookie Lloyd starting and playing very well, and B) Clark is probably taking VanderEsch's starting spot in '23.


So they sign S Zayne Anderson for 2 years and the terms aren't public yet. Beane is going to have to sign some his own back to the team so the depth isn't as bare going into free agency and the draft.

FA's----S Anderson $ ?

UFA's---WR Beasley (or Crowder) $2 million...WR Kumerow (for teams) $1.2 million ...G Boettger $3.5 million (similar to Bates)...DT Phillips $3 million...DE Lawson $3 million...LB Matekevitch $2 million...P Martin $1.3 million

RFA's---I think they let LB Dodson and CB Jackson (re-signed and tendered) test the market because neither is worth the $2.6 million tender but both come back for about $1.75 each.
Re-signed...OL David Quissenberry
Added...G Connor McGovern...WR Deonte Hardy...WR Trent Shurfield...QB Kyle Allen...G Dave Edwards...RB Damian Harris...S Tyler Rapp

[YardRat]

Current roster...


QB--Allen Kyle Allen, (Barkley)-----3
RB--Cook, Hines, Damien Harris-----3
FB--Gilliam-----1
WR--Diggs, Davis,Shakir, Coulter, Harty, Sherfield (KS.Johnson, D.Patmon)-----8
TE--Knox, Morris (Z.Davidson)-----3
C--Morse-----1
G--Bates, McGovern, Edwards, Boettger-----4
OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown-----3
OL--Qiussenberry (A.Anderson, G.Mancz, R.Van Demark)-----4


DT--Oliver, Jones, Settle, Phillips (E.Ankou, C.Broughton, B.Bryant)-----7
DE--Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, Vickers (K.Jonathon)-----6
LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, Dodsen, Matekevitch-----5
CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal, Jackson, Lewis (J.Ingram, K.McMichael)-----9
S--Hyde, Poyer, Hamlin, Mayden, Rapp, Anderson-----6


PK--Bass-----1
P--Martin-----1
LS--Ferguson-----1


53 and (13) = 66 spots total

[YardRat]

DL Lawson re-signed.
LBer AJ Klein expected to this week.

[Woodman]

Bills make several roster moves, including adding former first-rounder - Buffalo Rumblings (https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/5/16/23722340/buffalo-rumblinks-516-buffalo-bills-make-several-roster-moves-shane-ray-travin-howard-josh-allen)

Buffalo’s roster currently stands at 88 after the signings of edge rusher Shane Ray, a former first-round draft pick of the Denver Broncos (https://www.milehighreport.com/) in the 2015 NFL Draft (https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-draft). Ray won a Super Bowl (https://www.sbnation.com/super-bowl) ring with the Broncos as a rookie and teammate of Bills edge rusher Von Miller. Get to know Ray, new linebacker Travin Howard, who has taken advantage of his opportunities to contribute, and new running back Isaiah Bowser, who rushed for 16 touchdowns during his senior season with the University of Central Florida

[Night Train]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/BUF/buffalo-bills/transactions/

I still remember the days when previous GM's went on vacation or took naps, while other teams signed players.