Draft 2023 Buffalo Bills

[Woodman]

Trade up trade down stand pat.

You are now the Bills GM whatcha got?

[Ginger Vitis]

Trade down

[DraftBoy]

Ditka the draft for a player to be named later.

[Woodman]

Trade down
I like the idea of getting a few extra swings myself.

[Night Train]

Beane has to redo A LOT of contracts first and decide who to let walk. Then comes Vet FA and who is out there that can help.

Lots to do over the next 10 weeks, prior to the draft. Too far off.

[Saratoga Slim]

I'd be OK trading down into the early 2nd round if it meant we add another 3rd+, but I do think this is a draft where we need to hit on at least one stud at a premium position on OL or WR. That might be possible if we've addressed WR in FA and are looking for OL studs in the draft. There will probably be some good OL adds in the 2nd round.

[Bill Cody]

Well I think with only 6 picks it's unlikely we trade up. Which is comforting to me because Beane gets ants in his pants on draft day when he has a player targeted and he stats worrying that the player won't be there. There are benefits to drafting a player in the 1st round. if he's a star you have an extra year of control. So my guess is if there is a player we like at 27 we will pick him right there. More likely to see some movement after day 1.

[Woodman]

Beane has to redo A LOT of contracts first and decide who to let walk. Then comes Vet FA and who is out there that can help.

Lots to do over the next 10 weeks, prior to the draft. Too far off.
You are the GM today get to work.

Okay who's contract do you redo?

Who do you part company with IYO?

[Woodman]

If I could ..... I'd package a certain coach and a specific player and trade them to Philadelphia for their 3rd and 4th round draft picks ..... but I can't so .... trade down for extra picks if possible ..... with the goal of building the OL 1st.

[Woodman]

https://www.nfl.com/news/three-round-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-six-trades-spice-up-round-1-bears-involved-i

Three-round 2023 NFL mock draft 1.0: Six trades spice up Round 1; Bears involved in three

Check it out the Bills are involved in this scenario!

[notacon]

These "Trade up trade down stand pat.” questions are irreverent and not very realistic in respect that the Bills use their own player evaluation system, bolstered by their organization that works year round on both prospective draft candidates and other NFL players for FA, or even trade candidates and then, in an extremely protective and closely held way, grade them.

There is no decision to "Trade up trade down stand pat.” at this point, or, I suspect, until the draft actually starts. And is based on how they have graded the full draft board, what the priorities are and how each pick is made form other clubs.

If they have a player they are targeting and it means they may have to move up to get him (based on their research and expectation of what other team may do) they move up....like they did last year to get Elam.

If they have a player they are targeting and they think the likelihood that they could move back and get him because they expect that no one else is targeting him, they do that....like they did for James Cook, trading back twice before they selected him.

To answer the rather silly question....."Trade up trade down stand pat.”....it depends.

[Woodman]

If they have a player they are targeting and it means they may have to move up to get him (based on their research and expectation of what other team may do) they move up....like they did last year to get Elam.
If they have a player they are targeting and they think the likelihood that they could move back and get him because they expect that no one else is targeting him, they do that....like they did for James Cook, trading back twice before they selected him.

Understood its fluid.

What position would you attempt to strengthen 1st?

OL, DL, RB or other?

I know everybody wants more weapons I get it.

Personally it's all about the trenches for me.

[notacon]

Understood its fluid.

What position would you attempt to strengthen 1st?

OL, DL, RB or other?

I know everybody wants more weapons I get it.

Personally it's all about the trenches for me.
It depends on what players are predicted to be available and how the Bills have them graded. Plus, it depend on how FA unfolds.

So, the same answer....it depends.

[Woodman]

It depends on what players are predicted to be available and how the Bills have them graded. Plus, it depend on how FA unfolds.

So, the same answer....it depends.

It always depends.

[Bill Cody]

It always depends.

Yes. My mother in law buys depends in bulk

[YardRat]

Considering how some of the players have turned out over the last three to four seasons I'd rather go with the grading some amateur mock drafters have over whatever the Bills' board looks like.

[Woodman]

Yes. My mother in law buys depends in bulk
It all ends in tears.

[Woodman]

Considering how some of the players have turned out over the last three to four seasons I'd rather go with the grading some amateur mock drafters have over whatever the Bills' board looks like.

Different can be better.

[kgun12]

Beane has to redo A LOT of contracts first and decide who to let walk. Then comes Vet FA and who is out there that can help.

Lots to do over the next 10 weeks, prior to the draft. Too far off.

A agree with this. I think who they draft and when depends on what happens in FA. Who we sign and who we loose all goes into the draft. We have a lot of needs and getting more picks would be a good thing.

[YardRat]

A agree with this. I think who they draft and when depends on what happens in FA. Who we sign and who we loose all goes into the draft. We have a lot of needs and getting more picks would be a good thing.

Beane has always signed enough free agents to give him flexibility in the draft, we'll see if he can do it again this year.

[kgun12]

Beane has always signed enough free agents to give him flexibility in the draft, we'll see if he can do it again this year.

The problem this year is he’s up against the cap more than ever before.

[Woodman]

The problem this year is he’s up against the cap more than ever before.

Very true .... one of the 1st moves might be?

[kgun12]

Very true .... one of the 1st moves might be?

I might look at tradable commodities maybe like Oliver, Dawkins, and/or Hines and get their salaries off the books while collecting more draft picks. I look at Edmunds numbers in all five years, they are close, I think he’s replaceable. That 17-20 million could go a LONG way fixing our O-line.

[Woodman]

I might look at tradable commodities maybe like Oliver, Dawkins, and/or Hines and get their salaries off the books while collecting more draft picks. I look at Edmunds numbers in all five years, they are close, I think he’s replaceable. That 17-20 million could go a LONG way fixing our O-line.

A possible route we could take.

[Bill Cody]

I don't think you can let Edmunds walk and get nothing in return. You either sign him long term which I think makes sense given his age and the fact that he continues to improve or if you feel the numbers won't work you franchise him and make a trade. Once a franchise player is traded that tag money goes off our cap. With only 6 draft picks opening up another hole on the team is hard to justify unless you can find a cheaper replacement.

Not the same situation because Ed Oliver still has a year to go but I would see what the market might be for him. He's a good player but I think I'd be looking to get bigger at DT. He has a 10m cap hit.

A lot of decisions for Mr. Beane.

[kgun12]

I don't think you can let Edmunds walk and get nothing in return. You either sign him long term which I think makes sense given his age and the fact that he continues to improve or if you feel the numbers won't work you franchise him and make a trade. Once a franchise player is traded that tag money goes off our cap. With only 6 draft picks opening up another hole on the team is hard to justify unless you can find a cheaper replacement.

Not the same situation because Ed Oliver still has a year to go but I would see what the market might be for him. He's a good player but I think I'd be looking to get bigger at DT. He has a 10m cap hit.

A lot of decisions for Mr. Beane.

I think it’s a good idea the only problem I see is if we don’t get the right return for Edmunds it’s a huge cap hit.

[Mr. Pink]

Staying pat seems to be the right move, although a trade down a few spots wouldn't be awful either if we can pick up a mid round pick out or a future 1 or 2 out of the deal.

Trading up, I would say, is probably not something they're even considering with where the salary cap situation is at.

[YardRat]

I don't think you can let Edmunds walk and get nothing in return. You either sign him long term which I think makes sense given his age and the fact that he continues to improve or if you feel the numbers won't work you franchise him and make a trade. Once a franchise player is traded that tag money goes off our cap. With only 6 draft picks opening up another hole on the team is hard to justify unless you can find a cheaper replacement.

Not the same situation because Ed Oliver still has a year to go but I would see what the market might be for him. He's a good player but I think I'd be looking to get bigger at DT. He has a 10m cap hit.

A lot of decisions for Mr. Beane.

Franchise tag might be the way to go, but then you are committing to $20,926,000 to cap space if Edmunds signs it and Beane can't find a trade partner. Smart, but very risky.

[kgun12]

Franchise tag might be the way to go, but then you are committing to $20,926,000 to cap space if Edmunds signs it and Beane can't find a trade partner. Smart, but very risky.

I think I read that somewhere before. :scratch:

[Woodman]

Staying pat seems to be the right move, although a trade down a few spots wouldn't be awful either if we can pick up a mid round pick out or a future 1 or 2 out of the deal.

Trading up, I would say, is probably not something they're even considering with where the salary cap situation is at.

Pretty much where I'm at.

[Woodman]

Franchise tag might be the way to go, but then you are committing to $20,926,000 to cap space if Edmunds signs it and Beane can't find a trade partner. Smart, but very risky.
I'm pretty sure they'd get the temperature for it before pulling that trigger .... would love two firsts as compensation.

[Woodman]

I don't think you can let Edmunds walk and get nothing in return. You either sign him long term which I think makes sense given his age and the fact that he continues to improve or if you feel the numbers won't work you franchise him and make a trade. Once a franchise player is traded that tag money goes off our cap. With only 6 draft picks opening up another hole on the team is hard to justify unless you can find a cheaper replacement.

Not the same situation because Ed Oliver still has a year to go but I would see what the market might be for him. He's a good player but I think I'd be looking to get bigger at DT. He has a 10m cap hit.

A lot of decisions for Mr. Beane.

:cheers:
Time to get to work earnestly indeed. :gobills:

[Bill Cody]

I'm pretty sure they'd get the temperature for it before pulling that trigger .... would love two firsts as compensation.

You can't get greedy. Only an elite QB might command 2 1sts. Lamar Jackson for example. The team that trades for him also has to pay him, that reduces the compensation. I'm thinking a 2nd this year and a 3rd next.

[Bill Cody]

I think it’s a good idea the only problem I see is if we don’t get the right return for Edmunds it’s a huge cap hit.

You can't go into it blind. Beane has a phone.

[kgun12]

You can't go into it blind. Beane has a phone.

Sure I agree, but as far as what you said about letting him go and not getting anything for him. Maybe they’ve tried? The Steelers have done this forever, a player gets too costly he’s gone. To me Edmunds production doesn’t equate to a 20 million dollar contract. Like I’ve said his rookie numbers aren’t much different than this years. He was like 19 when we drafted him? I think we can get the same production from another rookie that older and physically as mature as Edmunds is right now.

[Woodman]

You can't get greedy. Only an elite QB might command 2 1sts. Lamar Jackson for example. The team that trades for him also has to pay him, that reduces the compensation. I'm thinking a 2nd this year and a 3rd next.


If a player is given a non-exclusive franchise tag, the team signing him must send two first-round picks to the team that tagged the player. However, there is no compensation for the original team with the transition tag if they refuse to match the offer sheet.

[Bill Cody]

Sure I agree, but as far as what you said about letting him go and not getting anything for him. Maybe they’ve tried? The Steelers have done this forever, a player gets too costly he’s gone. To me Edmunds production doesn’t equate to a 20 million dollar contract. Like I’ve said his rookie numbers aren’t much different than this years. He was like 19 when we drafted him? I think we can get the same production from another rookie that older and physically as mature as Edmunds is right now.

I guess I'm quite a bit higher on Edmunds than you which is ok.

I don't think the Bills have had any reason at all up to now to shop Edmunds. They used a lot of draft capital to get him and he's developed rather nicely. Not really a surprise that it took some time or that his progress was not linear because as you say he was young when they took him.

I think if the cap was not a consideration the Bills would opt to keep him. But it is. So he's part of a large picture Beane has to sort through, not easy. Especially with a team that is one of the top 5 teams in the league. Banking on rookies is a risk but we're going to have to do it in some cases. Whether it's with Edmunds remains to be seen. I can tell you if the plan ends up being to try to draft his replacement Beane will need a couple Ambien's in his coffee come draft day.

[Bill Cody]

If a player is given a non-exclusive franchise tag, the team signing him must send two first-round picks to the team that tagged the player. However, there is no compensation for the original team with the transition tag if they refuse to match the offer sheet.

You understand teams can agree on less than 2 1sts for a franchised player right? In theory the Bills could franchise him and then trade him for a 7th, not that we would.

[Bill Cody]

Thinking back a long ways I think we franchised Peerless Price and then traded him for 1 1st to the Falcons

[Woodman]

You understand teams can agree on less than 2 1sts for a franchised player right? In theory the Bills could franchise him and then trade him for a 7th, not that we would.


No I did not what does non-exclusive mean then?

I was stuck on the two first rounders part of it.

How bad does anybody want him I guess becomes the question.

I would expect it to be pretty high. :idunno:

[kgun12]

Thinking back a long ways I think we franchised Peerless Price and then traded him for 1 1st to the Falcons

I think you’re correct.

As far as being down on Edmunds, he turns my stomach every time I see him run into the back of the D-line or is chasing the runner like a blind man try to find his dog! I can’t take it anymore!

[Woodman]

Thinking back a long ways I think we franchised Peerless Price and then traded him for 1 1st to the Falcons

Who did we draft with the pick?

[sukie]

Who did we draft with the pick?
Willis “Lord of the River Dance” McGahee

[Woodman]

Willis “Lord of the River Dance” McGahee

You're an animal.

[Bill Cody]

No I did not what does non-exclusive mean then?

I was stuck on the two first rounders part of it.

How bad does anybody want him I guess becomes the question.

I would expect it to be pretty high. :idunno:

That means a player can solicit offer sheets from other clubs. The tag guarantees 2 1st round picks if the player signs an offer sheet and his present team does not match. But as I said the team tagging a player can negotiate a lower price for a trade.

[Bill Cody]

Willis “Lord of the River Dance” McGahee

McGahee was a very good player but IMO that was the beginning of the end for Tom Donahoe. He needed to rebuild the offensive line which was dismal and instead went for the shiny object.

[kgun12]

McGahee was a very good player but IMO that was the beginning of the end for Tom Donahoe. He needed to rebuild the offensive line which was dismal and instead went for the shiny object.

This and the fact that the first round pick should contribute from the first day or at least be capable to contribute from day one!

[TigerJ]

Odds of a trade up - 1 in 10. Odds of standing pat - 5 in 10. Odds of a trade down - 4 in 10. I base that on the fact that Buffalo has some needs to address and only 6 picks in the draft. Depending on how the first round falls, there may not be great value at the positions where Buffalo has a need. That all translates in my mind to a very small chance of a trade up and a decent chance to trade down, though a trade down requires a willing partner and good value in return.

[Woodman]

Odds of a trade up - 1 in 10. Odds of standing pat - 5 in 10. Odds of a trade down - 4 in 10. I base that on the fact that Buffalo has some needs to address and only 6 picks in the draft. Depending on how the first round falls, there may not be great value at the positions where Buffalo has a need. That all translates in my mind to a very small chance of a trade up and a decent chance to trade down, though a trade down requires a willing partner and good value in return.

:cheers: Very good I place the odds of trade up 3 in 10.

We tend to get ants in our pants.

[notacon]

This and the fact that the first round pick should contribute from the first day or at least be capable to contribute from day one!

The last first round pick that did actually "contribute from the first day” was Tremaine Edmunds (91.32% of first year snap count). Tre’ White (98.65% of first year snap count) was the one previous.

No other first round pick of the Bills have met this criteria since then.

Josh Allen - 67.89%
Ed Oliver - 53.67%
Greg Rousseau - 49.26%
Kaiir Elam - 45.39%

[kgun12]

The last first round pick that did actually "contribute from the first day” was Tremaine Edmunds (91.32% of first year snap count). Tre’ White (98.65% of first year snap count) was the one previous.

No other first round pick of the Bills have met this criteria since then.

Josh Allen - 67.89%
Ed Oliver - 53.67%
Greg Rousseau - 49.26%
Kaiir Elam - 45.39%

That tells you how bad our scouts are!

[notacon]

That tells you how bad our scouts are!

No, it doesn’t....that’s silly.


It goes more to the cautious way McDermott brings along rookies and young players.

[notacon]

That tells you how bad our scouts are!
I objected to this premise in such that it assumes a reality that the facts do not support.

It has been obvious that McDermott hesitates to rely on rookies and young players and would rather bring them slowly until he can trust them. Some time ago, I did some light research to see how his method compared to other NFL coaches.

A cursory look told me that most NFL coaches act the same way.

The assumption that "first round pick should contribute from the first day” (although the idea of “...or at least be capable to contribute from day one!” is a different subject as “capable” to contribute is a totally different metric) is refuted by the observation of snap count for rookies as I detailed for the Bills recent picks.


Unfortunately, your first reaction is to criticize the Bills scouts, which I think is rather silly. I thought so from my previous experience with the light research I did, as I almost always have some kind of supporting evidence when I write almost any opinion....I don’t just pull it out of my butt.

The idea that the recent Bills rookie’s snap counts is an indication of “how bad our scouts are” would assume that other teams have a better record in the same criteria.

As usual, this led me to even more detailed research so I can form an intelligent, informed opinion. And, as I suspected (and from my earlier light research) the facts do not support the idea of "how bad our scouts are”

I did two fact finding searches...one, the snap count for all 1st round picks for 2022, and to observe several years of the same, the six year record for the Bills compared to the two Super Bowl team this year.

Here are the snap counts for every 2022 1st round pick....


<tbody>
Name<map name="MicrosoftOfficeMap0"></map>
POS
Team
RND
PK
Snap Count


Travon Walker
DE (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/31/year/2022)
Jacksonville
1
1
67.76%


http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/blob:http://www.billszone.com/cf7e55a5-c06a-4c2d-a6cd-6c5a4c824019 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/page/news/id/106131)Aidan Hutchinson
DE (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/31/year/2022)
Detroit
1
2
84.33%


Derek Stingley Jr.
CB (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/29/year/2022)
Houston
1
3
51.19%


Ahmad Gardner
CB (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/29/year/2022)
NY Jets
1
4
97.98%


Kayvon Thibodeaux
DE (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/31/year/2022)
NY Giants
1
5
65.43%


Ikem Ekwonu
OT (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/46/year/2022)
Carolina
1
6
100.00%


Evan Neal
OT (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/46/year/2022)
NY Giants
1
7
64.93%


Drake London
WR (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2022)
Atlanta
1
8
77.93%


Charles Cross
OT (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/46/year/2022)
Seattle
1
9
99.82%


Garrett Wilson
WR (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2022)
NY Jets
1
10
79.35%


Chris Olave
WR (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2022)
New Orleans
1
11
57.70%


Jameson Williams
WR (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2022)
Detroit
1
12
40.19%


Jordan Davis
DT (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/32/year/2022)
Philadelphia
1
13
20.25%


Kyle Hamilton
S (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/36/year/2022)
Baltimore
1
14
50.14%


Kenyon Green
OG (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/47/year/2022)
Houston
1
15
77.52%


Jahan Dotson
WR (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2022)
Washington
1
16
54.71%


Zion Johnson
OG (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/47/year/2022)
LA Chargers
1
17
99.33%


Treylon Burks
WR (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2022)
Tenneesee
1
18
37.97%


Trevor Penning
OT (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/46/year/2022)
New Orleans
1
19
11.79%


Kenny Pickett
QB (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/8/year/2022)
Pittsburgh
1
20
69.31%


Trent McDuffie
CB (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/29/year/2022)
Kansas City
1
21
59.41%


http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/blob:http://www.billszone.com/2ce294d8-ce87-46a6-afe5-e2940e514876 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/page/news/id/105890)Quay Walker
ILB (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/90/year/2022)
Green Bay
1
22
81.90%


Kaiir Elam
CB
Buffalo
1
23
45.39%


http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/blob:http://www.billszone.com/2ce294d8-ce87-46a6-afe5-e2940e514876 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/page/news/id/106067)Tyler Smith
OT (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/46/year/2022)
Dallas
1
24
98.45%


Tyler Linderbaum
C (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/91/year/2022)
Baltimore
1
25
99.82%


Jermaine Johnson II
DE (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/31/year/2022)
NY Jets
1
26
27.42%


Devin Lloyd
ILB (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/90/year/2022)
Jacksonville
1
27
79.62%


Devonte Wyatt
DT (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/32/year/2022)
Green Bay
1
28
21.68%


Cole Strange
OG (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/47/year/2022)
New England
1
29
93.54%


George Karlaftis
DE (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/31/year/2022)
Kansas City
1
30
63.59%


Daxton Hill
S (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/36/year/2022)
Cincinnatti
1
31
12.64%


http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/blob:http://www.billszone.com/cf7e55a5-c06a-4c2d-a6cd-6c5a4c824019 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/page/news/id/105604)Lewis Cine
S (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/36/year/2022)
Minnesota
1
32
0.17%

</tbody>

Here are the snap counts for each of the three teams, Bills, KC and Philly for the past six seasons. Since all three teams did not have a 1st round pick in every year, I included the first pick each team had in addition to their multiple first round picks present....


<tbody>
<map name="MicrosoftOfficeMap0"></map>
Name
POS
Team
RND
PK
Snap Count


2022
Trent McDuffie
CB (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/29/year/2022)
Kansas City
1
21
59.41%


2022
George Karlaftis
DE (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/31/year/2022)
Kansas City
1
30
63.59%


2021
Nick Bolton
LB
Kansas City
2
58
57.76%


2020
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB
Kansas City
1
32
49.18%


2019
Mecole Hardman
WR
Kansas City
2
56
44.86%


2018
Breeland Speaks
LB
Kansas City
2
46
40.41%


2017
Patrick Mahomes
QB
Kansas City
1
10
6.04%











2022
Jordan Davis
DT
Philadelphia
1
13
20.25%


2021
DeVonta Smith
WR
Philadelphia
1
10
81.79%


2020
Jalen Reagor
WR
Philadelphia
1
21
45.22%


2019
Andre Dillard
T
Philadelphia
1
22
28.95%


2018
Dallas Goedert
TE
Philadelphia
2
49
47.89%


2017
Derek Barnett
DE
Philadelphia
1
14
41.47%











2022
Kaiir Elam
CB
Buffalo
1
23
45.39%


2021
Greg Rousseau
DE
Buffalo
1
30
49.26%


2020
AJ Epenesa
DE
Buffalo
2
54
27.17%


2019
Ed Oliver
DT
Buffalo
1
9
53.67%


2018
Josh Allen
QB
Buffalo
1
7
67.89%


2018
Tremaine Edmunds
LB
Buffalo
1
16
91.32%


2017
Tre'Davious White
CB
Buffalo
1
27
98.65%

</tbody>


What the facts show is that the Bills are not necessarily out of the mainstream of the percentage of snap counts their draft picks (premium picks) had their first season which would indicate if they “contribute(d) from day one”....and when compared to KC and Philly, the average percentage of snap count for the players listed is much higher.

KC’s average is 45.89%....Philly is 44.26% and Buffalo is 61.91%

The Bills avg. is higher because of the two players I mentioned above....Tre’ White and Edmunds who both played an unusually high amount their rookie years. If I take them out, the avg. for the remaining Bills is 48.68%.

KC is skewed lower because they sat Mahomes his rookie year and the Bills were forced (outside their plans going into the 2018 season) to play Allen. If I exclude Mahomes, KC’s avg is 52.54%.

Basically, there is NO indication that Buffalo’s scouts are “bad” based on percentage of snap counts for 1st picks their rookie year.

Other interesting observations can be made as well by looking at the 2022 1st round list.

Players selected in the top 10, generally play more (duh....not a surprise). O-linemen selected in the first round play much more than other positions. Among 2022 1st round picks, only SEVEN players had snap count above 90%. SIX of those were O-linemen. Only ONE was another position....Sauce Gardner, CB.


Buffalo, in the past seven drafts have had two players that had more than 90% of the snap their rookie year....Tre’ White and Edmunds.

Which goes to their excellence in “contributing from the first day”.....that, in Edmunds case, refutes the idea of some posters that Edmunds is not that good. :rofl:


The other observations is that the Bills have ignored the offensive side of the ball in their first picks....except for Josh Allen.

Sure looks like THIS is the year to break that chain.

[Woodman]

That tells you how bad our scouts are!
Yes it does!

[kgun12]

I would be happy with any of these but Robinson.

https://buffalowdown.com/2023/02/21/buffalo-bills-dream-first-round-picks-2023-nfl-draft/

[notacon]

I would be happy with any of these but Robinson.

https://buffalowdown.com/2023/02/21/buffalo-bills-dream-first-round-picks-2023-nfl-draft/


Lets’ go over them, shall we....

O’Cyrus Torrence - OG - I agree 100%. If he’s there at #27, he should be a strong consideration for the Bills first round pick. My searing question is what do you do if the best OG in the draft is gone???

Reaching for an OG just to pick a OG is stupid. In Scout’s Inc. 2022 draft player rankings (https://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/rankings?year=2023), Torrence is the highest ranked OG at #28 overall. A perfect value for the Bills #27 slot. The next OG ranked is Luke Wyler, Ohio, at #68. Next is Emil Eklyor, USC at #91....and down from there.

If Torrence is not available, the Bills would be much better served by waiting until the third round for an OG.

Broderick Jones T, Georgia - another great pick, especially if (as the article points out) if he does not displace Brown, he could move to OG. The problem is with the realty that OT is one of the most prized draft values, every mock draft I have seen has him long gone by #27. The latest I’ve seen him mocked is #17. There is much less of a chance that he drops into the Bills lap than Robinson.

Brian Branch - S, Alabama. Another great pick. But, just like Jones, the likelihood he makes it past #20 is slim at best.

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU - Another great pick. But, just like Branch and Jones, he’s not going to be there for the Bills at #27. Scouts Inc. has him the highest ranked WR in this draft class at #12. DB, OT & WR are the most desirable drafts picks (besides QB) in today’s NFL. The chances that the Bills have to get Johnston are between slim and none.

And finally, Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas. Ranked #9 overalll by Scout’s Inc. he is, by far, one of the best quality offensive weapons available in this draft. Bar none. Highest ranked offensive weapon (besides QB).

The difference, is that the relative value placed on RB recently, means there is a chance he may fall to the late first round. I, for one, do not think it’s possible, but, history tells us that it’s much more likely that a blue chip RB falls in the first round as compared to WR, OT and DB.

What they wrote about him is pretty spot on....



When looking back at this draft class a few years from now there is a strong argument to be made that Bijan Robinson (https://buffalowdown.com/2023/02/08/buffalo-bills-draft-profile-bijan-robinson/) is the best player and could be the best running back in the NFL. However, he could slip to the Buffalo Bills because the running back position has been devalued over the past few seasons and this year’s class of running backs might be one of the deepest in recent memory.

This shouldn’t stop the Buffalo Bills from drafting Bijan Robinson though in the first round if he is still available when they are on the clock.

The former Texas running back is a complete, three-down running back that really doesn’t have a glaring weakness. He is a powerful running back that can make runs between the tackles but has the speed to get outside and is someone that could handle 250+ carries in a season. Johnson also is an effective pass catcher out of the backfield and does a good job in pass protection picking up the blitz.

While the Buffalo Bills do have James Cook, and he certainly could handle the responsibilities as a featured running back if paired with a running back to handle short-yardage situations, Bijan Robinson has a chance to be the best running back in the league and that might be too tough to pass up.



In summary, you are hanging on to an almost hopeless wish that three of the four players you cherish are going to be within the Bills reach. I think that’s fools gold. That’s your business. I want what will make the Bills better. Passing on Robinson if none of the four are available will not make the Bills better.

But, yeah, I agree with you that if a quality prospect at WR, OT or DB, that is first round worthy, the Bills should not hesitate to grab him.


OG is in the same situation, but there is only ONE player in the the 2023 class that is first round worthy (and some experts think that is still a stretch (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35180722/2023-nfl-draft-every-prospect-first-round-grade-plus-comps-including-top-quarterbacks-edge-rushers-wide-receivers-round-1)) where they have only 19 players that they deem worthy of a 1st round ick, and, interestingly, none of the five payers mentions are on that list....EXCEPT Bijan Robinson.

My premise is pretty simple....“...if the highly regarded prospects in the positions that may (or may not be, we do not know) targeted by the Bills in this draft at WR, OG and S....are GONE by the time #27 comes around, BUT, the blue chip, rare talent RB IS available, to reject selecting him out of hand is dumb.”


If you have a more narrow opinion, that’s your problem.

Although, depending on what happens in FA (the Bills HAVE to add RB’s to the roster since only two are under contract, and Hines’ cap cost is WAY out of line, so it is questionable if he stays on) if all the four players that pass your approval are not available at #27, but Robinson IS, trading back would be certainly prudent.

But, I also believe that adding a player of Robinsons’ caliber could make the Bills offense almost unstoppable, would greatly enhance the passing game preventing defenses from two high safety that takes away Josh’s greatest strength, takes the pressure off Josh Allen to be superman to win games, and certainly reduces his rushing attempts that are going to land him on injured reserve sooner or later.


The Bills have been searching for an answer at RB since they drafted Allen. McDermott (and almost everyone else) is hoping for a more consistent rushing threat from RB’s instead of Josh Allen. Passing on Robinson out of hand (if by some miracle he is still there at #27) would be opposite of those goals.

[YardRat]

WR Josh Downs, Zay Flowers or Jalen Hyatt.
S Brian Branch or Antonio Johnson.
I'd even be willing to reach for LBer Jack Campbell if they want him bad enough.

[Woodman]

This and the fact that the first round pick should contribute from the first day or at least be capable to contribute from day one!
It's time to draft players to the field of play.

No projects we need immediate participation.

[Night Train]

Was cleaning out the attic this morning. Found the 1982 NFL Draft Notebook by Palmer Hughes. I guess I've been following the draft a while. :-)

Naturally, we picked the wrong guy at the top. WR Perry Tuttle. :-)

[notacon]

WR Josh Downs, Zay Flowers or Jalen Hyatt.
S Brian Branch or Antonio Johnson.
I'd even be willing to reach for LBer Jack Campbell if they want him bad enough.

None of those players would even come close to providing the immediate impact that Robinson would...enough to be the one first year player that could provide the Bills with a SB win THIS season....especially the WR’s.

WR’s are overvalued in today’s NFL and RB are undervalued. Which means teams pay too much in draft capital on WR when they elevate second round talent and waste first round picks on them if the pick is in the later parts of round 1.

In 2022, what was by all accounts a very good WR year, all six WR’s picked in the first round were #18 and higher. Several WR’s that had pretty good rookie years lasted until the 2nd and 3rd round. None of those taken after #18 were game changers.

Same thing in 2021. The few at the very top, #5 Ja'Marr Chase, #6 Jalen Waddle & #10 DeVonta Smith were the only ones worth a first round pick.

This year, Robinson is just a good a talent as those WR’s chosen at the top of the first round. He is seen as being the best offensive skill player in this draft (besides QB). He should go within the top 10 picks.


If he happens to drop to #27 (are even #25) the Bills would be idiots to nor strongly consider picking him. He would make the Bills ooffcnes almost unstoppable.

Besides the faulty that several of those players could be had in the second round. Especially Jack Campbell, who is nothing more than a solid prospect and NOT first round material at all. Reaching for him would be dumb.

[notacon]

This and the fact that the first round pick should contribute from the first day or at least be capable to contribute from day one!

And Bijan Robinson DOES have the ability. Much more than every other player that will probably be available to the Bills at #27 (IF he drops because of the undervaluing of RB’s).

Bijan Robinson would have profound and immediate impact on the Bills from DAY ONE.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

Was cleaning out the attic this morning. Found the 1982 NFL Draft Notebook by Palmer Hughes. I guess I've been following the draft a while. :-)

Naturally, we picked the wrong guy at the top. WR Perry Tuttle. :-)I remember when the Buffalo Evening News did a camp special on him. Asking him: "when do you think you'll catch your first pass?"

[Night Train]

I remember when the Buffalo Evening News did a camp special on him. Asking him: "when do you think you'll catch your first pass?"

" Sunday night at Mulligans ."

[kgun12]

" Sunday night at Mulligans ."

Wow the fond memories of at Mulligans!

[notacon]

Wow the fond memories of at Mulligans!

I haven’t even heard that name in decades.

Spent a little bit too much time there in the 70’s. :D:

[Woodman]

Breaking News!! AFC East!

Devin McCourty announces his retirement - ProFootballTalk (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/10/devin-mccourty-announces-his-retirement/)

Patriots safety Devin McCourty (https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player/9902/devin-mccourty) has come to a decision about his playing future.
McCourty announced (https://www.instagram.com/p/CpnvqyCPYFQ/) in an Instagram post that he has decided to retire from the NFL. McCourty said at the end of the Patriots season that he would take some time before deciding on his plans for the 2023 season and said last month that he expected to come to that decision (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/22/devin-mccourty-expects-to-decide-on-playing-in-2023-around-start-of-free-agency/) around the start of free agency.

[Woodman]

I remember when the Buffalo Evening News did a camp special on him. Asking him: "when do you think you'll catch your first pass?"

and he said Tuesday? :nod:

[Woodman]

More Breaking News AFC East!!

Dolphins will exercise Tua Tagovailoa's fifth-year option - ProFootballTalk (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/10/dolphins-will-exercise-tua-tagovailoas-fifth-year-option/)

That means Tagovailoa will have a guaranteed salary of just over $23 million in 2024.
The No. 5 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Tagovailoa excelled in his first season under head coach Mike McDaniel in 2022. He completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3,548 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He led the league among qualified players in passer rating (105.5), yards per attempt (8.9), and yards per completion (13.7).
But Tagovailoa missed several games due to concussions. He ended up playing 13 regular-season games, including the last two games of the regular season and Miami’s postseason loss to Buffalo. Tagovailoa reportedly did not clear concussion protocol until Feb. 1 (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/01/report-tua-tagovailoa-has-cleared-concussion-protocol/).

[Night Train]

So after the recent signings, the so-called draft needs are Safety, MLB, OL. Maybe 1 more WR. General depth.

Would like to see them sign Poona Ford, the DT.


The biggest need is adjusting the schemes to fit the roster. Hey coaches..knock,knock..

[notacon]

With the recent FA signings, draft targets should still be close to what they were before....IOL, WR, S, RB…but priorities and urgency has changed.

LB is a new and more pressing need now, but not as much as offensive playmakers, and O-line. Although the signing of McGovern has upgraded the biggest weakness on O-line, depth is still an issue as well as some young talent to develop that can be done in middle rounds.

Yes, draft a LB, but not in round 1 unless a highly regarded prospect drops into the Bills lap. Better to target lesser regarded prospects with the goal to develop.

There are not any LB’s that rise to true first round value. Actually in this analysis (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35180722/2023-nfl-draft-every-prospect-first-round-grade-plus-comps-including-top-quarterbacks-edge-rushers-wide-receivers-round-1)there are only 19 prospects that have a “first-round grade”. With only two positions with none...LB & IOL.

No need to reach for a safety. Poyer is secured for two years on a team friendly contract. Hyde is back, although he does become a FA after next season. Hamlin is almost assuredly coming back. With the possibility of Benford being tried at S, a missile round pick at that position makes sense.

WR should be the Bills first pick, although of course, depending on who is available at #27. I firmly believe that if blue chip prospect Bijan Robinson drops to #27, the Bills should strongly consider taking him, despite just signing Harris.

With that said, if Robinson is not there, (which he probably will not be), then best WR available becomes the priority.

If there is a run on WR’s and what’s left is graded by the Bills to be late 2nd round or third round value….trade back.

The draft is still over a month away. A LOT can happen between now and then.

[kgun12]

I haven’t even heard that name in decades.

Spent a little bit too much time there in the 70’s. :D:

Live in Evans, many of my friends worked there, never paid for a pitcher of beer or vodka and tea!

19734

[Mace]

WR Josh Downs, Zay Flowers or Jalen Hyatt.
S Brian Branch or Antonio Johnson.
I'd even be willing to reach for LBer Jack Campbell if they want him bad enough.

Cbs sports just had a mock taking Campbell. I'd be great taking him....Sewell...even Simpson and then using them properly.

[YardRat]

Cbs sports just had a mock taking Campbell. I'd be great taking him....Sewell...even Simpson and then using them properly.

Me too. If they don't snag him in the first, he'll be long gone before their pick in the second and it will cost a bunch to move up far enough to get him.

[YardRat]

It's really kind of frustrating to go into this draft cycle with so many needs, we've kind of become an example of how un-wise drafting can lead to more problems in a relatively short period of time. Double-dipping on defensive ends when you could have had one edge and one interior offensive lineman...same thing with OT, could have had one plus a safety prospect instead of two...ignoring the issue at ILB.

[swiper]

New CBS mock draft works for me: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-mock-draft-2023-lions-trade-back-get-quentin-johnston-bijan-robinson-commanders-move-up-for-will-levis/

[swiper]

If they did that they could get a very good safety prospect in the 2nd (Skinner, Battle or Brown) and concentrate on the lines thereafter.

[swiper]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10048323-jack-campbell-nfl-draft-2023-scouting-report-for-iowa-lb

https://media.bleacherreport.com/image/upload/x_116,y_49,w_1612,h_1076,c_crop/w_800,h_533,c_fill/v1666729308/a0zfjdum3xed8anhekbl.jpg

[notacon]

Drafting Jack Campbell in the first round would be a reach. Better to trade back, pick up some extra picks and get him in round two.

Or, better yet, draft a WR in the first round and trade up to get Campbell in round 2....he could even be there in late round two.

The CBS mock draft (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-mock-draft-2023-lions-trade-back-get-quentin-johnston-bijan-robinson-commanders-move-up-for-will-levis/) cited above has him ranked as “#85 prospect rank” and “#10 position rank”. ESPN NFL Draft Player Rankings (https://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/rankings?year=2023) has him #73 overall with a grade of 78, which is defined as....


70-79 Solid Prospect

Still a standout player at the college level that is close to being an elite player. He has no glaring weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchups, but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the country. He will usually rate in the top third of players at his position and is considered a third round draft prospect.



Sure looks like a reach for #27.

[YardRat]

I don't think he'll be there for the Bills pick in the second. They might be able to risk a few spots and trade down and still get him, but IMO as soon as the first ILB goes off the board the other two are going to be right behind.

[kgun12]

I don't think he'll be there for the Bills pick in the second. They might be able to risk a few spots and trade down and still get him, but IMO as soon as the first ILB goes off the board the other two are going to be right behind.

Agreed, go get Wagner.

[Woodman]

Agreed, go get Wagner.

Would be a great pickup.

:gobills:

[notacon]

I don't think he'll be there for the Bills pick in the second. They might be able to risk a few spots and trade down and still get him, but IMO as soon as the first ILB goes off the board the other two are going to be right behind.
That could be true....but no ILB is probably going to go in the first round. #27 for Campbell would be a dumb reach. The Bills could trade UP into the middle second round from #59 and still probably get him.

First round should be the best offensive skill player on the board....almost assuredly a WR. Unless Bijan Robinson is there at #27.

Maybe the Bills could trade Oliver for a high 2nd round pick and take the best ILB on the board after drafting a WR in round one.

[Woodman]

So after the recent signings, the so-called draft needs are Safety, MLB, OL. Maybe 1 more WR. General depth.

Would like to see them sign Poona Ford, the DT.


The biggest need is adjusting the schemes to fit the roster. Hey coaches..knock,knock..
I wonder if they'll ever learn that.

[notacon]

Now that FA is almost over and the latest signing of S Rapp (a seemingly extremely smart one) priorities for draft are becoming pretty clear.

#1 - WR - There are at least five or six WR’s that could provide the Bills with immediate impact. If any of Smith-Njigba (he won’t be), Addison (he won’t be) Flowers, Johnson, Hyatt or maybe even Tillman are avaible at #27, the Bills should finally spend some valuable draft capital on giving Allen some more offensive weapons.

#2 - LB - The huge loss of Edmunds is not easily filled. Passing (correctly) on Wagner reveals their mindset (so far....they still may sign a proven vet, albeit not an expensive one). There should be some viable LB’s to be had in the 2nd and/or third round. Although 2nd round seems more likely. Jack Campbell seems to fit the profile the Bills want pretty well...although reaching for him in round 1 would be a mistake.

After that best player available keeping an eye towards S, DL, RB and O-line depth.

[Chet]

WR, OL, TE, RB. **** the defense, just score more points

[sukie]

WR, OL, TE, RB. **** the defense, just score more points

Kinda KCs MO

[YardRat]

Now that FA is almost over and the latest signing of S Rapp (a seemingly extremely smart one) priorities for draft are becoming pretty clear.

#1 - WR - There are at least five or six WR’s that could provide the Bills with immediate impact. If any of Smith-Njigba (he won’t be), Addison (he won’t be) Flowers, Johnson, Hyatt or maybe even Tillman are avaible at #27, the Bills should finally spend some valuable draft capital on giving Allen some more offensive weapons.

#2 - LB - The huge loss of Edmunds is not easily filled. Passing (correctly) on Wagner reveals their mindset (so far....they still may sign a proven vet, albeit not an expensive one). There should be some viable LB’s to be had in the 2nd and/or third round. Although 2nd round seems more likely. Jack Campbell seems to fit the profile the Bills want pretty well...although reaching for him in round 1 would be a mistake.

After that best player available keeping an eye towards S, DL, RB and O-line depth.

I would add Josh Downs to the WR list.

And I don't want to spend valuable draft capital moving up in the second round. Players are one thing, but we need picks. I'd still be OK with Campbell at #27.

[ParanoidAndroid]

We should be getting a 3rd round compensatory pick for Edmunds. Maybe even #65.

I could see them packaging it to move up in the 2nd to get Campbell.

[Chet]

Exactly. We need all the o talent we can get because we’re schematically unimaginative and ******ed.

Unless you get another premier pass rusher which we 1) don’t have the money for and 2) don’t draft high enough for, then please don’t waste valuable early round picks on defensive players. This is 2023 NFL and we have Josh Allen. Quickest way to a SB is beefing up o line and adding skill players, not plugging defensive holes that have a negligible consequence anyway

[notacon]

I would add Josh Downs to the WR list.

And I don't want to spend valuable draft capital moving up in the second round. Players are one thing, but we need picks. I'd still be OK with Campbell at #27.
I forgot about Josh Downs. Thanks.

The chances of the Bills reaching for Campbell at #27 are doubtful to very slim. I think it would be a bad reach. I agree that it’s probably not a good idea to move up in round 2. I suspect that the chances on Campbell being there at #59 are greater than the Bills trading up to get him.

If he’s not there at #59 rely on their draft board and take the best player available with leaning to ILB or IOL.

[notacon]

We should be getting a 3rd round compensatory pick for Edmunds. Maybe even #65.

I could see them packaging it to move up in the 2nd to get Campbell.

That possible compensatory pick would be for the 2024 draft, and not determined until after the 2023 season is over. So, there is nothing to trade with.

The FA losses (and additions) that are taken into consideration in awarding compensatory picks include signings and losses done up until early May, after the 2023 draft is over, but nor handed out until the 2023 season is over.

That is why Beane said this week that they are mindful of not signing any FA that are over about $1.5M, because that would effect the possible 2024 3rd round compensatory pick the Bills could get for losing Edmunds.

That does not preclude the Bills from making a trade to move up to get Campbell, and that is a draft day decision based on how the board falls.

I would really enjoy being a fly on the wall in the draft room on draft day. Privy to the conversations that go on between GM’s.

Here is a great draft day story from Scott Pioli (https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/scott-pioli-tells-great-story-about-patriots-outsmarting-jets-2001-nfl-draft) on how they outsmarted the Jets to grab Matt Light in the 2001 draft out from under their noses because Matt Light told him the Jets were interested in him....



“It was in 2001 and we wanted to pick Matt Light,” Pioli said on “Good Morning Football.” “We were at No. 50, the Jets were at 49, the Lions were at 48. Around pick 45, 46, that’s when you start reaching out to a group of players who might be available that you might pick. I picked up the phone, I called Matt Light. Matt says, ‘Hey, Scott. How you doing?’ ‘I’m good. Have you heard from anybody?’ He says, ‘Well, I’m actually on the phone with the Jets. They’re on hold right now. They’re staying on the phone with me because they want to pick me at their pick.’ I look at the board and I see they’re at 49, we’re at 50. Matt Light was the guy we wanted so badly. Before I jumped off the phone I said, ‘Matt, don’t tell anyone that I just called. Make sure that you don’t tell any team the Patriots just called because you don’t want to give it up.’

“The good news is he had given up that he was on the phone with the Jets. Bill (Belichick) and I start burning up the phone lines prior to the Jets’ pick, talked to (former Lions general manager) Matt Millen. I can’t remember if it was a fifth or a sixth he wanted for us to move up two spots. So while Matt Light is still on the phone with the Jets, we execute the trade, jump up two spots, get right ahead of the New York Jets and at pick 48 we draft Matt Light and get who becomes a Patriots Hall of Fame player for us during that time.

"But again, had the Jets maybe told Matt Light not to say anything about who he was on the phone with, we wouldn’t have made that trade to get up because we didn’t know that was their guy. So, you got to keep things on the down low.”



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