What contracts can be restructured, which players could be cut

[Woodman]

What contracts can be restructured, which players could be cut (https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2023/03/09/buffalo-bills-salary-cap-possible-contract-restructures-player-cuts/69985492007/)

This is where Allen’s bank account comes into play. All Beane has to do is reduce Allen’s 2023 base salary to the league minimum and convert the other $21 million he is owed into a signing bonus. It’s a pretty good deal for both parties because Allen gets all that money immediately, while the Bills would not only be cap compliant but almost $4 million in the black.
For accounting purposes, that $21 million bonus can then be prorated over the remaining six years on Allen’s contract. This is not something Beane loves doing, kicking money into the future, but when you have a team that, before any restructures like this occur, counts nine players with cap hits north of $10 million in 2023, he really doesn’t have a choice.

[Woodman]

Obviously, Miller is going to be on the team and thus, he is scheduled to count $18.6 million. By converting the roster bonus to a signing bonus, that money still gets paid out now but because it becomes a signing bonus it can then be spread out into future years like Allen’s. This would free up around $10.8 million in cap space this season.

The beauty of this move is that it still allows the Bills a reasonable escape from Miller’s original six-year contract after the 2024 season if they so choose. The contract was written with a potential out after that third year and the dead cap hit to release him, at age 36, would be far less than the cap savings his release would trigger. Obviously, if Miller is still going strong, maybe the Bills would keep him, but that’s a decision two years away.

[Clumpy]

Milano's extension was a great move because it not only saved cap space but also brought him up to the level of Pro Bowl LBs

Do NOT restructure Diggs - leave his deal alone

Do NOT restructure Dawkins - same

TRADE Ed Oliver - saves $10,753,000

Taron Johnson: Save a little a little more than $4 million by dropping his salary to $1.25 million and also converting roster bonus (add 3 years to deal)

Nyheim Hines: Same as Settle - pay cut with added incentives. Save over $1 million

Tre'Davious White: Simple restructure (include roster bonus) with additional year added saves about $6.75 million

Release McKenzie: saves about $2.1 million

[Clumpy]

That's $24,603,000 than add Settle's and Milano's savings = about $31 million

Allen's simple restructure - $21 million

Miller's roster bonus conversion - $10,808,000

Approximately $63 million total thus far

:respect:

[YardRat]

Milano's extension was a great move because it not only saved cap space but also brought him up to the level of Pro Bowl LBs

Do NOT restructure Diggs - leave his deal alone

Do NOT restructure Dawkins - same

TRADE Ed Oliver - saves $10,753,000

Taron Johnson: Save a little a little more than $4 million by dropping his salary to $1.25 million and also converting roster bonus (add 3 years to deal)

Nyheim Hines: Same as Settle - pay cut with added incentives. Save over $1 million

Tre'Davious White: Simple restructure (include roster bonus) with additional year added saves about $6.75 million

Release McKenzie: saves about $2.1 million

I agree with that...

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/262414-2023-Roster-Analysis

[Woodman]

Report- Nyheim Hines taking pay cut to remain with Bills - ProFootballTalk (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/13/report-nyheim-hines-taking-pay-cut-to-remain-with-bills/)

Report: Nyheim Hines taking pay cut to remain with Bills
According to Mike Garafolo of NFL Media, the Bills and Hines are reworking the running back’s contract for him to remain with the organization. Some of Hines’ base salary will convert to a signing bonus. And while Hines was previously slated to earn $4.79 million in 2023, he’ll have incentives for the chance to earn more than that.
While Hines is under contract for 2023 and 2024, he had no guaranteed money under his previous deal. So the Bills could have cut him and saved $4.79 million against the cap without any dead money.

[Night Train]

Good. I want Hines here. He's actually useful.
Should be hearing more from the accounting dept. Still need a lot of relief. Rolaids can only do so much. :-)

[kgun12]

Milano's extension was a great move because it not only saved cap space but also brought him up to the level of Pro Bowl LBs

Do NOT restructure Diggs - leave his deal alone

Do NOT restructure Dawkins - same

TRADE Ed Oliver - saves $10,753,000

Taron Johnson: Save a little a little more than $4 million by dropping his salary to $1.25 million and also converting roster bonus (add 3 years to deal)

Nyheim Hines: Same as Settle - pay cut with added incentives. Save over $1 million

Tre'Davious White: Simple restructure (include roster bonus) with additional year added saves about $6.75 million

Release McKenzie: saves about $2.1 million

I agree with all of this but I’m a little hesitant about doing anything with White’s contract until we back to 100%.

[jamze132]

Where are we capologists?

[kgun12]

Where are we capologists?

Clumpy has been the resident for years and is also the best on the board. No offense to anyone else just my humble opinion.

[Clumpy]

:ontome:

[Clumpy]

Seriously, I follow Spotrac numbers now. I no longer have a spreadsheet and haven't for many years. I wish I had been able to do what Mike does there

[kgun12]

Seriously, I follow Spotrac numbers now. I no longer have a spreadsheet and haven't for many years. I wish I had been able to do what Mike does there

:bow:

[Night Train]

What players could be cut ?

McKenzie after todays signing. No snaps left for him.

[Ginger Vitis]

Cut Siran Neal... saves just over $2 million

[notacon]

Seriously, I follow Spotrac numbers now. I no longer have a spreadsheet and haven't for many years. I wish I had been able to do what Mike does there

Best source for accurate numbers.

As of today, 3/16/23 at 11:06AM PDT (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/), the Bills have....

Est cap space (all) - $8.2M

Est cap space (top 51) - $16.3M


That is NOT including Jordan Poyer or Kyle Allen. Plus it does not include the “2023 projected Draft Cap Pool” cap hits of $7M (total) and $4.9M (top 51).

So, in reality, not that much.

[Woodman]

Cut Siran Neal... saves just over $2 million

I'm sure they're considering a few cuts.

[Woodman]

What players could be cut ?

McKenzie after todays signing. No snaps left for him.

McKenzie failed to capitalize that's for sure.

[Night Train]

McKenzie due a 250K roster bonus later today. Uh oh..

[Forward_Lateral]

Cuttin McKenzie saves 2.2 Million. Restructuring Tre saves 5 million. Restructuring Dawkins saves 3.8 Million.

Those three moves alone give the team 11 million in space.

There are other moves that can be made as well, like restructuring or even cutting Morse, the latter of which saves 5.3 million

They can still free up a bunch, it just depends how many restructures they want to do, and what they envision the cap looking like next year and a couple years from now.

[Woodman]

Restructure all of them ..... time to get busy.

[Night Train]

Siran Neal has a 400K roster bonus due Sunday. Could he be next ? Savings would only be 1.375 Mil when all is done. He backs up Taron Johnson inside besides playing Special Teams.

[Clumpy]

Extension for Taron Johnson (as previously described in my earlier post) - $4 million

Convert Micah Hyde's roster bonus - saves about $1.1 million

Simple restructure of White's deal - saves about $6.75 million

Leave Dawkins contract as is

That's almost $12 million

[Clumpy]

I think they can also extend DaQuan Jones and create $3-4 million more

[Woodman]

Great stuff Clumpy!

[kgun12]

What would all these restructuring and extensions do to next years cap and is there contracts to rework next year?

[YardRat]

What would all these restructuring and extensions do to next years cap and is there contracts to rework next year?

According to to spotrac they are $18 million over the cap again in '24, with only 40 players signed. So a repeat of this year. The usual suspects (Allen, Diggs, Miller, Dawkins, Tre') have large enough base salary numbers that can be converted to bonuses. It looks like the restructures they have already done have added about $15mil per year cap hit for at least the next three years.

[Forward_Lateral]

According to to spotrac they are $18 million over the cap again in '24, with only 40 players signed. So a repeat of this year. The usual suspects (Allen, Diggs, Miller, Dawkins, Tre') have large enough base salary numbers that can be converted to bonuses. It looks like the restructures they have already done have added about $15mil per year cap hit for at least the next three years.

You would think that soon the cap is going to go up more than just a little bit. All of this new TV money should kick in next year, right?

[notacon]

According to to spotrac they are $18 million over the cap again in '24, with only 40 players signed. So a repeat of this year. The usual suspects (Allen, Diggs, Miller, Dawkins, Tre') have large enough base salary numbers that can be converted to bonuses. It looks like the restructures they have already done have added about $15mil per year cap hit for at least the next three years.


You would think that soon the cap is going to go up more than just a little bit. All of this new TV money should kick in next year, right?
Spotrac is being very conservative with their projected cap in 2024 of only $235M.

Since the cap’s inception, the increase has averaged 7% every year. From 2014 to 2022 the average increase has been 6.36% (affected by the Covid year, 2021 league year) drop of 7.92%, but made up the next year with increase of 14.08% for 2022.


1998 (26.37%) and 2006 (19.3%) were anomalies and brought up the average to 7%. 2010 was an “uncapped” year (the CBA ran out) and the new CBA of 2011 saw several years of more controlled increases.

2011 - minus 2.44%
2012 - .5%
2013 - 1.99%


Here is a history of the cap from 1994 to 2023


<tbody>
Year
In Millions
% Change


1994
$34.61



1995
$37.10
7.20%


1996
$40.75
9.85%


1997
$41.45
1.71%


1998
$52.38
26.37%


1999
$57.29
9.37%


2000
$62.17
8.52%


2001
$67.40
8.41%


2002
$71.10
5.49%


2003
$75.00
5.49%


2004
$80.58
7.44%


2005
$85.50
6.11%


2006
$102.00
19.30%


2007
$109.00
6.86%


2008
$116.00
6.42%


2009
$123.00
6.03%


2010
uncapped
n/a


2011
$120.00
-2.44%


2012
$120.60
0.50%


2013
$123.00
1.99%


2014
$133.00
8.13%


2015
$143.28
7.73%


2016
$155.27
8.37%


2017
$167.00
7.55%


2018
$177.20
6.11%


2019
$188.20
6.21%


2020
$198.20
5.31%


2021
$182.50
-7.92%


2022
$208.20
14.08%


2023
$224.86
8.00%

</tbody>

2023 had a 8% increase to the present $224.8M. Spotrac’s 2024 estimate of $235M represents only 4.91% increase.

If the increase for 2024 is similar to 2023, the cap will be $242.8M....which means the Bills would be $10.2M over, not $18, but the cap constraints are going to around for a while. That’s what happens when you have a few big time stars on the team.

The latest TV contracts kicked in for this year, 2023, so the cap is already are reflecting that event. All the speculation for 2024 and beyond is just that. Won’t know until about a year from now what the 2024 cap will be.

[Ginger Vitis]

Next year they could save just over $8 Million by cutting Morse

Cutting Dawkins and Johnson saves around $7.5 million each if they needed too/wanted too

Cutting Poyer would save 5.5 Million

[sukie]

I would restructure Cookie… he brings it but we need to stretch it out and convert some of that guaranteed into bonus cash

Pink needs his fifth year option exercised.

speaking of excessive. Or lack of it… Mace, cut him… you cannot contribute while sitting effectively. He will be missed in the locker room,

Swiper… cut his ass.

Nottie… too expensive and kinda a diva. Annoying habit of calling every staff member “expert”.

ticat and JLB… buy out candidates.

add years to Saratoga and Kgun12

(though the contract might outlive the latter)

practice squad… JATM and that sukie douche.


that’s a start.

[sukie]

Lecter is a bust. Dead cap hit blows, however.

[YardRat]

You would think that soon the cap is going to go up more than just a little bit. All of this new TV money should kick in next year, right?

One would think so. But then again, with the Amazon deal starting a year early one would think it would have a bigger affect on this year's cap.

[Forward_Lateral]

One would think so. But then again, with the Amazon deal starting a year early one would think it would have a bigger affect on this year's cap.

I meant the Sunday Ticket money. Does that switch this year? I thought Direct TV had it for one more year

Edit: it looks like YouTube starts this year. 14 BILLION dollars. Cap should be 300 million ffs

[YardRat]

I meant the Sunday Ticket money. Does that switch this year? I thought Direct TV had it for one more year

Edit: it looks like YouTube starts this year. 14 BILLION dollars. Cap should be 300 million ffs

Not sure how the Sunday Ticket money works, but my point was with Amazon starting earlier...last season...this year's cap should reflect that completely new revenue stream and it doesn't look like it really has.

[Forward_Lateral]

Not sure how the Sunday Ticket money works, but my point was with Amazon starting earlier...last season...this year's cap should reflect that completely new revenue stream and it doesn't look like it really has.

I don’t understand how the players union isn’t making noise about this.

[YardRat]

I don’t understand how the players union isn’t making noise about this.

It must fit in with the formulas in the CBA, I guess.

[Forward_Lateral]

It must fit in with the formulas in the CBA, I guess.
I wonder if every player gets a cut of the TV revenue outside of their contracts. I doubt this is how it works, but it would make more sense.

[notacon]

I meant the Sunday Ticket money. Does that switch this year? I thought Direct TV had it for one more year

Edit: it looks like YouTube starts this year. 14 BILLION dollars. Cap should be 300 million ffs

My understanding is that the Sunday Ticket deal was included in the 2023 cap since the first payment is being made in 2023.

The TV contracts are counted for every year they pay out individually, not the whole contract. The TV deals are graduated with the first year of the new deal worth only marginally more than the last year of an expiring (or continued) deal. As far as I know these details are not public. Just the overall value of the full contract is disclosed.

Most of the increase in the 2023 cap was attributed to the new TV deals starting to take effect. Since the cap is based on percentage of overall revenue (what is included as “revenue” is dictated by the CBA) the only way the cap increases year to year is if overall NFL revenue increases.

The Sunday Ticket deal is an average of $2B per year (not disclosed of the actual annual payments) which is only $500M above the old deal. So, the Youtube deal (if it does in fact pay $500M more in 2023, which is not clear) would only add about $7.5M to each team's cap for 2023, or a little less than one half of the $16.6M increase of the cap from 2022 to 2023.

[notacon]

I wonder if every player gets a cut of the TV revenue outside of their contracts. I doubt this is how it works, but it would make more sense.

Nope. They are already getting a “cut of the TV revenue” and it does not make any sense that they should get even more "outside their contracts”.


Each individual contract of each player is mostly paid for by that TV money. They are already getting TV money...and LOTS of it. TV contracts make up about two thirds of ALL NFL revenue....and the players get around half of that.

[Mace]

I would restructure Cookie… he brings it but we need to stretch it out and convert some of that guaranteed into bonus cash

Pink needs his fifth year option exercised.

speaking of excessive. Or lack of it… Mace, cut him… you cannot contribute while sitting effectively. He will be missed in the locker room,

Swiper… cut his ass.

Nottie… too expensive and kinda a diva. Annoying habit of calling every staff member “expert”.

ticat and JLB… buy out candidates.

add years to Saratoga and Kgun12

(though the contract might outlive the latter)

practice squad… JATM and that sukie douche.


that’s a start.

I proviide leadership from the pines and mow the turf. You know the Giants want me. My hometown discount only goes so far....but I suspect the restraining orders will catch up to me.

[Woodman]

I proviide leadership from the pines and mow the turf. You know the Giants want me. My hometown discount only goes so far....but I suspect the restraining orders will catch up to me.


19739

Leadership a very important quality.

[YardRat]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As free agency slows down a bit, here&#39;s a look at how much each NFL team still has in cap space (including all moves that are official)<br><br>������ 8 teams with $20M+<br>���� 11 teams with $10M-$20M<br>�� 12 teams with under $10M<br><br>The Bears still lead the way by a wide margin. <a href="https://t.co/QYNzWOGSMc">pic.twitter.com/QYNzWOGSMc</a></p>&mdash; Field Yates (@FieldYates) <a href="https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1638947529785225216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[kgun12]

The Bills still have plenty of contracts they could restructure if they really want someone. I know we have Josh and he will help keep the window open, but! The time is now, go get Wagner, decide between Hopkins and OBJ. This would allow them to go in many directions in the draft. Best available, trade back, or god forbid move up. Oh, if there is any truth to the rumor about Allen figure out a way to get him to. Last, if Oliver isn’t happy trade him for a pick or player. I think Diggs might provide all the drama one team needs this year.

[notacon]

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That looks like the “top 51” cap space with assumed amounts for the last three signings. Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/) has got the Bills “top 51” (without the three latest signings of Damien Harris, David Edwards and Quessenberry) of $11.9M.

That is a misleading number because the real cap is for all contracts including the draft coming up, with room required for usual in-season moves.

That estimated number is only $3.49M.

Yes, there is some restructuring that can be done, but may not be very smart....they have already kicked the can down the road and adding more put the Bills in a very disadvantaged position going forward.

Beane has been telling us all along that it is unlikely to be any “splash” FA signings this off season. There is little reason to doubt him.

The dreams of Wagner, Hopkins, OBJ, (Jax) Josh Allen or any other big bucks trade or signing is almost assuredly fantasy land.


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[Woodman]

Still keeping the light on for Wagner.

[Clumpy]

What would all these restructuring and extensions do to next years cap and is there contracts to rework next year?

I will look into this and report back :dork: