Bills Picks Finalized

[Woodman]

Buffalo Bills 2023 NFL Draft picks finalized (https://www.buffalobills.com/news/buffalo-bills-2023-nfl-draft-picks-finalized)

It's April which means it's NFL Draft month. The 2023 NFL Draft takes place April 27-29 in Kansas City and the Bills have six total picks in this year's draft.

Here are Buffalo's exact picks for the 2023 NFL Draft:





ROUND 1 — 27th overall
ROUND 2 — 59th overall
ROUND 3 — 91st overall
ROUND 4 — 130th overall
ROUND 5 — 137th overall (from Arizona)
ROUND 6 — 205th overall

[Bill Cody]

Draft strategy: Bean is bound, gagged and blindfolded each round until the pick before our choice so he has to either draft at our pick or trade down. Also an assistant needs to slip an ambien into his coffee draft morning. No trading up, we have only 6 choices

[notacon]

Chad Reuter, Draft Analyst at NFL.com, published this interesting story today....

2023 NFL Draft: Five Round 1 trades that would make sense (https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-five-round-1-trades-that-would-make-sense)




Buffalo Bills Trade With Seattle Seahawks

Bills receive:
o No. 20 overall (Round 1)

Seahawks receive:
o No. 27 overall (Round 1)
o No. 91 overall (Round 3)
o No. 137 overall (Round 5, from ARI)


The Bills are hungry for a Super Bowl win after losing in the Divisional Round of the playoffs the past two seasons. The Chiefs leaped ahead of them to draft cornerback Trent McDuffie (https://www.nfl.com/players/trent-mcduffie/) at No. 21 last year, and you can bet Buffalo GM Brandon Beane doesn't want something similar to happen again. (Beane had to make his own move to get corner Kaiir Elam (https://www.nfl.com/players/kaiir-elam/) two picks later.)


Beane could go in several directions at No. 20. Linebacker Trenton Simpson (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/trenton-simpson/32005349-4d63-2785-a5d9-70beadf55418) could step in for free-agent loss Tremaine Edmunds (https://www.nfl.com/players/tremaine-edmunds/) (for whom Beane traded up in the 2018 NFL Draft) in the middle of the Bills' defense. They need to strengthen the defensive interior, so Calijah Kancey (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/calijah-kancey/32004b41-4e04-6143-5a2e-df476a2bfc64) or Adetomiwa Adebawore (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/adetomiwa-adebawore/32004144-4502-1468-3d33-a0f9da804e5c) could be targets. Finding more pass-catchers for Josh Allen (https://www.nfl.com/players/josh-allen-4/) wouldn't hurt, either, whether they look at receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jaxon-smith-njigba/3200534d-4982-9636-a18c-5da6fbdaa80c), Jordan Addison (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jordan-addison/32004144-4449-1056-9ba9-b09766bad478), Zay Flowers (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zay-flowers/3200464c-4f57-7002-1160-832e9618f0fd) or Jalin Hyatt (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jalin-hyatt/32004859-4142-0916-68d0-ff3c547de346), or a tight end like Dalton Kincaid (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dalton-kincaid/32004b49-4e06-9130-e563-7edd228031c8) or Michael Mayer (https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-mayer/32004d41-5933-0676-2b57-0928ab0ea95b) to pair with Dawson Knox (https://www.nfl.com/players/dawson-knox/).


Seattle GM John Schneider has a history of moving back in the first round. At No. 27, the Seahawks can still find an offensive lineman, cornerback or edge rusher who meets their needs. As for where the third- and fifth-rounders factor in, Schneider also has a history of trading mid-round selections to climb the ladder in Round 2, doing so to acquire players like defensive tackle Jarran Reed (https://www.nfl.com/players/jarran-reed/) in 2016, receiver D.K. Metcalf (https://www.nfl.com/players/d-k-metcalf/) in 2019 and edge rusher Darrell Taylor (https://www.nfl.com/players/darrell-taylor/) in 2020.


No one has any idea how the draft will exactly play out (and no one ever does) and no one has any idea exactly what Brandon Beane will do.

Being light on his feet and being prepared to make split second decisions (and trades) is the mantra of draft day.

No one was surprised that the Bills selected a CB in the 1st round last year, but it was a mild surprise that it was Elam (who was not ranked that highly, #47 overall according to Scout’s Inc., and the #6 ranked CB) and even more of a surprise that he had to trade up to get him.

Judging how Elam struggled his rookie season, the ranking was more accurate (so far) than the Bills decision to take him at #23.

Certainly, when compared to the last time the Bills used a first-round choice on a CB, Tre’ White at #27 in 2017, as White immediately took over the #1 CB position (98.65% of defensive snap counts as compared to Elam’s 45.39%) and played at an extremely high level from day one.

Drafting is not a science. As Bill Barnwell opined (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/36041659/2023-nfl-draft-first-round-trades-which-teams-move-stay-put-top-31-picks)…

“The most important element of the NFL draft (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/news) is picking the right players. The hardest part of the NFL draft is picking the right players. Study (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/) after study (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019) suggest the ability to pick prospects is overwhelmed by randomness and variance (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23039883/history-tells-us-nfl-terrible-evaluating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects).”


What is undeniable about mock drafts, and “big boards” is that they may not get every pick to every team perfectly (that is impossible) but they are extremely close to predicting what players are most likely to go in the first round….especially in the top half of the first round.

What really matters is what Beane’s big board looks like, and that we will never see.

Draft day is a lot of fun for any NFL fan.

[notacon]

BTW...Bill Barnwell (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/36041659/2023-nfl-draft-first-round-trades-which-teams-move-stay-put-top-31-picks)has the opposite opinion on what the Bills should do...



Buffalo Bills (https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills)


What they should do: Trade down.

Bills fans might love the idea of moving up for one amazing player to try to put their team over the top in its chase for a Super Bowl, but the Von Miller (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/13976/von-miller) signing from a year ago shows how that can go wrong if that player isn't available (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35204160/bills-star-lb-von-miller-torn-acl-season).

With the Bills paying for Miller, quarterback Josh Allen (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3918298/josh-allen) and several other stars around their roster, this is a team that needs to add multiple players to supplement its core. Teams at the top of the second round are usually looking to move up into this range, and the Bills should be listening.

[Woodman]

Chad Reuter, Draft Analyst at NFL.com, published this interesting story today....

2023 NFL Draft: Five Round 1 trades that would make sense (https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-five-round-1-trades-that-would-make-sense)




No one has any idea how the draft will exactly play out (and no one ever does) and no one has any idea exactly what Brandon Beane will do.

Being light on his feet and being prepared to make split second decisions (and trades) is the mantra of draft day.

No one was surprised that the Bills selected a CB in the 1st round last year, but it was a mild surprise that it was Elam (who was not ranked that highly, #47 overall according to Scout’s Inc., and the #6 ranked CB) and even more of a surprise that he had to trade up to get him.

Judging how Elam struggled his rookie season, the ranking was more accurate (so far) than the Bills decision to take him at #23.

Certainly, when compared to the last time the Bills used a first-round choice on a CB, Tre’ White at #27 in 2017, as White immediately took over the #1 CB position (98.65% of defensive snap counts as compared to Elam’s 45.39%) and played at an extremely high level from day one.

Drafting is not a science. As Bill Barnwell opined (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/36041659/2023-nfl-draft-first-round-trades-which-teams-move-stay-put-top-31-picks)…

“The most important element of the NFL draft (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/news) is picking the right players. The hardest part of the NFL draft is picking the right players. Study (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/) after study (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019) suggest the ability to pick prospects is overwhelmed by randomness and variance (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23039883/history-tells-us-nfl-terrible-evaluating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects).”


What is undeniable about mock drafts, and “big boards” is that they may not get every pick to every team perfectly (that is impossible) but they are extremely close to predicting what players are most likely to go in the first round….especially in the top half of the first round.

What really matters is what Beane’s big board looks like, and that we will never see.

Draft day is a lot of fun for any NFL fan.

Saw this one ..... NO!!!

[Woodman]

GMF Bills trade up to 3rd overall.

Our 1st and 2nd ... 2023

Our 1st and 2nd ... 2024

And Greg Groot to Arizona

For the 3rd overall pick and Hopkins.

With the 3rd pick the Bills select Will Anderson.