2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

[Woodman]

2023 NFL Draft- Ideal top two picks for every team

Round 1: No. 27 overall -- Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

Round 2: No. 59 overall -- Rashee Rice, WR, SMU

Simpson is an explosive player in the middle of the defense who would fill the gap left by departed former first-rounder Tremaine Edmunds. Rice could be a bargain if available outside the top 50, as his quickness off the line (1.49-second 10-yard split) and ability at the catch point (41-inch vertical) give him a chance to be a true No. 1 receiver in a year or two.

[Ginger Vitis]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

not ideal at all

[Woodman]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

We want trenches primarily but the LB looks ok to me.

[Canadian'eh!]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

I have a feeling it will be a WR in round 1.

WR Quinton Johnson
LB Jack Campbell

feels fairly ideal.

[swiper]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

Remember when Doug Whaley jumped on Cyrus Kuoandjio in the 2nd round, after he dropped, and came to the media and said, "Look how great I am! I just got a first-rounder in the 2nd round?" How'd that turn out?

[swiper]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

not ideal at all

I thought that Simpson was NOT a middle linebacker. LOL. I see even in their own description they say this:

Chiseled weakside linebacker with rare speed for the position to run down the action in all directions.

We already have Milano. Why?

[notacon]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

I have a feeling it will be a WR in round 1.

WR Quinton Johnson
LB Jack Campbell

feels fairly ideal.

It would be surprising if the Bills did not go WR and LB in the first two rounds.

It will depend on who is on the board and what the Bills board looks like as to what position goes where.

It will also be a surprise if the Bills stay put with #27 & #59 in the first two rounds.

[notacon]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

I have a feeling it will be a WR in round 1.

WR Quinton Johnson
LB Jack Campbell

feels fairly ideal.

As far as has been published, neither of these players have had a visit with the Bills of any type much less a “Top 30” one. (so far).

“Top 30” visit seems pretty relevant since besides being officially declared to the NFL as it is usually very extensive and for competitive reasons are limited to 30 for each team, as opposed to a combine visit or zoom communication, the Bills have not made a first round selection (except Rousseau because there were no “Top 30” visits that year because of Covid) that they did not have a Top 30 visit with during Beane’s tenure.

According to this site, the Bills have not had a Top 30 visit with any LB’s. Here is who they have, along with the Scout’s Inc. overall and positional ranking.

	POS	OVER RANK	POS RANK	SCHOOL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	14	1	Ohio State
Zay Flowers	WR	19	2	Boston College
Jordan Addison	WR	29	4	USC
Jalin Hyatt	WR	42	5	Tennessee
Nathaniel Dell	WR	72	9	Houston
Justin Shorter	WR	196	26	Florida
Mazi Smith	DT	33	3	Michigan
Zacch Pickens	DT	105	9	South Carolina
Jaquelin Roy	DT	114	10	LSU
Gervon Dexter	DT	166	13	Florida
Darnell Washington	TE	31	3	Georgia
Luke Musgrave	TE	49	4	Oregon State
Luke Schoonmaker	TE	117	9	Michigan
Darnell Wright	OT	18	4	Tennessee
O'Cyrus Torrence	G	36	1	Florida
Jordan Battle	S	91	5	Alabama
Marte Mapu	S	Not Ranked	Not Ranked	Scramento State
Kendre Miller	RB	150	11	TCU

Although not a Top 30 visit, the Bills have had communication with three LB’s...OLB’s Nolan Smith & Derick Hall and one ILB, Trenton Simpson. As has been mentioned, Trenton Simpson does not seem like a fit to fill the MLB role, although Jack Campbell does.

Maybe they will have him in for a visit int he next two weeks???

Here is the analysis from Joe B. on Jack Campbell and Trenton Simpson....

Jack Campbell, Iowa

If the Bills are looking for a true-to-form, no doubt middle linebacker to step in on his first day as their starter, Campbell has a lot to like. He shows excellent instincts against the run and consistently makes the right read of where to commit that either stops the play or reroutes the runner into his teammates. He wasn’t out of position very often, and even with such a strength in run diagnosing, he showed well on his reaction time to play action attempts. The coverage piece, especially in zone, stands out as someone with a good awareness for what’s happening around him and the change of direction skills to make a play on the ball. He also showed in coverage that he can make game-changing plays with his ball skills. Coverage is where his history and athleticism as a high-level high school basketball player stand out the most. But past skills on the field, the leadership intangibles will speak well to the Bills. Campbell was named to Iowa’s leadership council as a sophomore and was a permanent team captain in his junior and senior seasons.

But it’s certainly not a flawless profile for Campbell. He didn’t show as much potential to fire through the rush lane and make a stop in the backfield as someone like Sanders. Campbell was more consistent than flashy. He’s susceptible to juke moves he plays incorrectly, which could yield bigger gains. There are also questions about Campbell’s ability in man coverage. From an athletic standpoint, his 40-yard dash time was slower than Edmunds and Sanders. Campbell’s arms (31.875 inches) are shorter than Sanders’ arms and much shorter than Edmunds’ arms. Sanders is clearly the closer comp to Edmunds between the two, even if that has its flaws.

The big question with Campbell is, are the Bills looking for their next Tremaine Edmunds? Or, with Sean McDermott heading up the defense in 2023, are they looking for the coach’s next middle linebacker more in the Luke Kuechly mold? Kuechly has long been one of McDermott’s favorites, and one of the biggest catalysts to those Panthers defenses being as good as they were. And back then, McDermott favored play-diagnosing instincts and leadership over immense height, weight, length and speed traits.


Trenton Simpson, Clemson

Simpson is the only other obvious candidate in the first two rounds. His athleticism is undeniable and he zips around all over the field in coverage with ease. If the Bills were in the market for a long-term starting outside linebacker, Simpson would be a tremendous fit for their scheme. However,Matt Milano is signed for the foreseeable future, and there are legitimate questions about how well Simpson (6-foot-2, 235 pounds) can deal with the inherent traffic and bigger blockers he’d have to take on as a middle linebacker. That’s not to say he couldn’t play the middle in the NFL, and he’d certainly be fine in coverage, but it seems a lot more of a forced fit with the potential to have a weakness in run defending.

[Canadian'eh!]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

It would be surprising if the Bills did not go WR and LB in the first two rounds.

It will depend on who is on the board and what the Bills board looks like as to what position goes where.

It will also be a surprise if the Bills stay put with #27 & #59 in the first two rounds.

We have seen in past years that Beane tends to be pretty honest and upfront in the lead up to the draft. He’s not throwing out smokescreens.

They might move up or down, I’m not sure. But the “early WR” will not surprise me at all.

I am less sure about ILB. I tend to believe him on the “we think the guy is already here” talk. They haven’t seemed to put a ton of scouting into it.

a DT/OL in the first 2 rounds won’t shock me if it happens.

[Canadian'eh!]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

As far as has been published, neither of these players have had a visit with the Bills of any type much less a “Top 30” one. (so far).

“Top 30” visit seems pretty relevant since besides being officially declared to the NFL as it is usually very extensive and for competitive reasons are limited to 30 for each team, as opposed to a combine visit or zoom communication, the Bills have not made a first round selection (except Rousseau because there were no “Top 30” visits that year because of Covid) that they did not have a Top 30 visit with during Beane’s tenure.

According to this site, the Bills have not had a Top 30 visit with any LB’s. Here is who they have, along with the Scout’s Inc. overall and positional ranking.

	POS	OVER RANK	POS RANK	SCHOOL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	14	1	Ohio State
Zay Flowers	WR	19	2	Boston College
Jordan Addison	WR	29	4	USC
Jalin Hyatt	WR	42	5	Tennessee
Nathaniel Dell	WR	72	9	Houston
Justin Shorter	WR	196	26	Florida
Mazi Smith	DT	33	3	Michigan
Zacch Pickens	DT	105	9	South Carolina
Jaquelin Roy	DT	114	10	LSU
Gervon Dexter	DT	166	13	Florida
Darnell Washington	TE	31	3	Georgia
Luke Musgrave	TE	49	4	Oregon State
Luke Schoonmaker	TE	117	9	Michigan
Darnell Wright	OT	18	4	Tennessee
O'Cyrus Torrence	G	36	1	Florida
Jordan Battle	S	91	5	Alabama
Marte Mapu	S	Not Ranked	Not Ranked	Scramento State
Kendre Miller	RB	150	11	TCU

Although not a Top 30 visit, the Bills have had communication with three LB’s...OLB’s Nolan Smith & Derick Hall and one ILB, Trenton Simpson. As has been mentioned, Trenton Simpson does not seem like a fit to fill the MLB role, although Jack Campbell does.

Maybe they will have him in for a visit int he next two weeks???

Here is the analysis from Joe B. on Jack Campbell and Trenton Simpson....

Well. We were playing “ideal”.

Johnson would mean moving up. I did a draft sim that had him available at 27, but there’s no way. Addison or Flowers are more realistic. QBs, WRs, and pass rushers tend to go up on draft day, TE, RB and S down.

I like Campbell as an old school hard hitting MLB. That said, I will be SHOCKED if the Bills like him too. They prefer better athletes at the position. I can see them drafting a guy like Simpson and putting him in the same position of Edmonds where his skills aren’t being maximized.

[TigerJ]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

Simpson has the athleticism to fill Edmunds' spot. The question is whether or not he has the football intelligence and instinct to make the switch. He has played OLB, so this would be a modest positions switch for him. Moreover, the reason he has slipped down the boards some is the question about his smarts. He's prone to make mistakes, and biting on fakes. Buffalo needs their middle linebacker to be smart and reliable. Rice would probably be a good value and would provide lots of competition for the #2 WR spot.

[notacon]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

We have seen in past years that Beane tends to be pretty honest and upfront in the lead up to the draft. He’s not throwing out smokescreens.

They might move up or down, I’m not sure. But the “early WR” will not surprise me at all.

I am less sure about ILB. I tend to believe him on the “we think the guy is already here” talk. They haven’t seemed to put a ton of scouting into it.

a DT/OL in the first 2 rounds won’t shock me if it happens.

Yeah, I agree.

As the draft gets closer and closer, it’s starting to look like ILB is not high on their priority list. You are spot on with Beane tending to be pretty honest...all the time. Sure he engages with GM speak, but many times he avoids the easy out and word jumble saying nothing and says things that he really does not have to.

A perfect example was when he says that “we think the guy is already here”, there is no way he had to stay that with such specificity and there is no reason to not believe him.

Truthfully none of us have the first clue what Beane’s draft board looks like nor what he is going to do or wants to do. Besides the fact that draft day is so fluid in respect that each team’s plans and strategy are largely dictated by what 31 other team’s do.

There is only one team that has the power to carry out exactly what they want in R1. Carolina.

The most to be gleaned from paying attention and looking at the visit list which should give some indiction on where the emphasis is, I’m starting to suspect that you are correct and WR is probably high on the priority list, but DL/OL is right behind it. IOL is not.

We don't even know how many picks they will actually use since Beane always makes trades on draft day. Assuming six, it would not be a surprise to anyone if the positions drafted (not necessarily in any order)....

WR (or TE or even RB)
DL (either EDGE or IDL)
OL (either IOL or T)
CB
S
LB

In other words, every position except QB.

[notacon]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

Well. We were playing “ideal”.

Johnson would mean moving up. I did a draft sim that had him available at 27, but there’s no way. Addison or Flowers are more realistic. QBs, WRs, and pass rushers tend to go up on draft day, TE, RB and S down.

I like Campbell as an old school hard hitting MLB. That said, I will be SHOCKED if the Bills like him too. They prefer better athletes at the position. I can see them drafting a guy like Simpson and putting him in the same position of Edmonds where his skills aren’t being maximized.

I was not challenging your “ideal” in the least. In fact, most of us (me included, emphatically so) would be pretty happy with WR Quinton Johnson & LB Jack Campbell in first two rounds.

It’s just pretty interesting that neither of them has had any “visit” of any type with the Bills. (at least reported in the media)

But, we have to keep in mind that the visit lists are almost all never publicly announced by the Bills. Even the Top 30 visits are required to be disclosed to the NFL but NOT the media.

It is not out of the question that the Bills could have easily had some contact with both of these players. Even a Top 30 visit.

This year, I’m maintaining a spreadsheet of all the reported visits (at least that I can find), and compare it to the final draft picks.

I’m thinking the over/under on how many final picks are on that list is TWO.

[Canadian'eh!]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

I was not challenging your “ideal” in the least. In fact, most of us (me included, emphatically so) would be pretty happy with WR Quinton Johnson & LB Jack Campbell in first two rounds.

It’s just pretty interesting that neither of them has had any “visit” of any type with the Bills. (at least reported in the media)

But, we have to keep in mind that the visit lists are almost all never publicly announced by the Bills. Even the Top 30 visits are required to be disclosed to the NFL but NOT the media.

It is not out of the question that the Bills could have easily had some contact with both of these players. Even a Top 30 visit.

This year, I’m maintaining a spreadsheet of all the reported visits (at least that I can find), and compare it to the final draft picks.

I’m thinking the over/under on how many final picks are on that list is TWO.

I think the lists are important. They drafted people they brought for visits the last few years if I recall. At least in round 1. Chances are they will again.

[Mace]

Re: 2023 NFL Draft: Ideal top two picks for every team

Simpson has the athleticism to fill Edmunds' spot. The question is whether or not he has the football intelligence and instinct to make the switch. He has played OLB, so this would be a modest positions switch for him. Moreover, the reason he has slipped down the boards some is the question about his smarts. He's prone to make mistakes, and biting on fakes. Buffalo needs their middle linebacker to be smart and reliable. Rice would probably be a good value and would provide lots of competition for the #2 WR spot.

He played inside last year...they moved him to blitz. Projected better at outside...same issues as Edmunds...running game and blockers. Pappoe is another...same mold. Either will be ok...but tell you status quo attempted on defense....unless they start moving them around.