Coach Sal: The Value of Gabe Davis

[swiper]

The Value of Gabe Davis (https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/sports/bills/value-of-gabe-davis)

Important to re-examine right before the draft as many folks are calling for the Bills to draft a WR in round #1.




Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - Since 2020, there have been exactly 50 wide receivers drafted by NFL teams in the fourth round or later.

Of those 50, only one has already caught 20 or more touchdown passes in his NFL career.

That would be Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis.

Of those 50, only one has caught more than just one playoff touchdown so far in their NFL career.

That would also Davis with a whopping six!

Even without his record-setting four-touchdown performance against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 AFC Divisional Round, Davis would still rank first in total playoff touchdowns for any receiver drafted in the fourth round or later since 2020.

In just the last two playoff years alone, in four games, Davis has caught 19 passes for 389 yards and six scores. That’s an average of close to five catches and over 97 yards per-game, earning him the nickname “Playoff Gabe” from many fans.

Davis’ 26 combined regular and postseason touchdown catches are the most ever recorded in the first three seasons for any player drafted in the fourth round or later, breaking Tyreek Hill’s 25 from 2016-18.

So it’s safe to say through three seasons in Buffalo, Davis’ overall production has far outweighed his draft position compared to his peers.

[Novacane]

I know the drops stick out in some peoples mind but I'd try to extend him now. If he has a big year they won't be able to afford him.

[sukie]

If. He would have been extended already IF he was the DC nightmare we saw in the Chiefs playoff game.
If.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Last year was a tough year for just about everyone and Gabe played through some injuries.

Bills fans are increasingly impatient, and who can blame us?

But, Gave Davis isn't the problem.

Once again, as it has been for 25 years, the O-line is the problem.

And the talk is drafting a WR in the first.

[sukie]

It is year 4. Diggs will always draw a double until someone makes that feel like a bad decision. Last year was Gabe’s shot.

I hope I’m wrong. Maybe Dorsey is somewhat to blame.

[notacon]

I’m not down on Davis as some others.

And no, O-line is not nearly as much of the “problem” as some think either IMO.

There is no doubt that the quality of the full WR room (plus including TE’s) for the Bills was not close to good enough to compete on the same level as the (now) four best teams in the NFL... KC, Philly, Cincy and SanFran.

But, even if he fulfills all the promise and becomes a solid #2 WR, that does not preclude the Bills from smartly spending a first round pick on a WR this year.

An effective and dynamic offense requires at least three quality WR’s. Last year, the Bills had, at most one and a half.

[sukie]

1.5 is about right.

[swiper]

It is year 4. Diggs will always draw a double until someone makes that feel like a bad decision. Last year was Gabe’s shot.

I hope I’m wrong. Maybe Dorsey is somewhat to blame.

I believe some of the issue with Davis was Dorsey. Did Dorsey even show signs of improvement over the course of the 2022 season? It seems he got worse, if anything.

[Oaf]

Thankful for this article—I'm not in love with any of the top WR prospects and hope we wait till later to add to the position.

[swiper]

Thankful for this article—I'm not in love with any of the top WR prospects and hope we wait till later to add to the position.

I agree.

[DraftBoy]

I’d let him walk. Decent #2 that can be replaced.

[Night Train]

Reportedly played through a high ankle sprain most of last year. Bills have this year to decide what to do with him.

[Historian]

Reportedly played through a high ankle sprain most of last year. Bills have this year to decide what to do with him.

Okay, I'll give you that.

But what does that have to do with dropping passes that were between the 1 and the 3?

I still think the Bills come away with a WR tonight, either by draft, or trade, most likely Hopkins.

I think the hail mary he caught to win the game two years ago is still very fresh in their minds.

[Night Train]

Okay, I'll give you that.

But what does that have to do with dropping passes that were between the 1 and the 3?

I still think the Bills come away with a WR tonight, either by draft, or trade, most likely Hopkins.

I think the hail mary he caught to win the game two years ago is still very fresh in their minds.


How did you read I was defending him ? This isn't the Spin zone.

We'll find out tonight how they feel about him.

[justasportsfan]

I know the drops stick out in some peoples mind but I'd try to extend him now. If he has a big year they won't be able to afford him.

I think I would rather extend him than bring Hopkins in only because of age.

[Mace]

48 receptions on 93 targets is just entirely inadequate for a starter on any team.

[Lexwhat]

Stats aside - Gabe Davis just didn't have a great year last year.

His "toe drag swag" from the 2021 season was not at all who he was in 2022. I don't know if this is because of injury, or because he simply wasn't cut out for the increased attention that comes with a true WR2 role. Davis was a good value pick as a 4th rounder, and has had some fantastic games as a Bill. But he was a liability last season, and I would like to see more from the WR2 role.

Unless something drastic changes this season, I think 2023 is his last season as a Bill.

[Woodman]

Stats aside - Gabe Davis just didn't have a great year last year.

His "toe drag swag" from the 2021 season was not at all who he was in 2022. I don't know if this is because of injury, or because he simply wasn't cut out for the increased attention that comes with a true WR2 role. Davis was a good value pick as a 4th rounder, and has had some fantastic games as a Bill. But he was a liability last season, and I would like to see more from the WR2 role.

Unless something drastic changes this season, I think 2023 is his last season as a Bill.

Time to show consistency or its bye bye.

[justasportsfan]

So now we have Diggs (5'10) , Davis (6' ) Knox / Kincaid / Shorter (6'4) and Murray 6'3" rb.

We're not smurfs in the redzone anymore.

[swiper]

So now we have Diggs (5'10) , Davis (6' ) Knox / Kincaid / Shorter (6'4) and Murray 6'3" rb.

We're not smurfs in the redzone anymore.

Should be better. Just remember we went big before. Remember when the Bills drafted 6' 6" James Hardy in 2008? For the same thing? He was a bust.

Ex-Bills wide receiver James Hardy found dead in an Indiana river (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ex-bills-wide-receiver-james-hardy-found-dead-in-an-indiana-river/)

[justasportsfan]

Should be better. Just remember we went big before. Remember when the Bills drafted 6' 6" James Hardy in 2008? For the same thing? He was a bust.

Ex-Bills wide receiver James Hardy found dead in an Indiana river (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ex-bills-wide-receiver-james-hardy-found-dead-in-an-indiana-river/)

thats sad.

[Historian]

I think no matter what kind of year he has, he's done here after this season.

Maybe sooner.

[notacon]

I think no matter what kind of year he has, he's done here after this season.

Maybe sooner.

Neither of these predictions are credible. Especially the “maybe sooner”. Seriously?!?!? What, you think the Bills are going to cut him??? Or trade him????

Fat chance!!!

As for him being “done here after this season” I think that’s a stretch. Yes, there is no doubt that he could be a cap causality but that is not even close to a given.

I’d put his chances of being a Buffalo Bill after this season at 75%.

[Mr. Pink]

Overrated.

Both the guy who wrote the article and the guy who the article is about.

[Mr. Pink]

Neither of these predictions are credible. Especially the “maybe sooner”. Seriously?!?!? What, you think the Bills are going to cut him??? Or trade him????

Fat chance!!!

As for him being “done here after this season” I think that’s a stretch. Yes, there is no doubt that he could be a cap causality but that is not even close to a given.

I’d put his chances of being a Buffalo Bill after this season at 75%.

Davis is either going to have a monster year or another disappointing year...

Either way he's gone next year. Monster year he's going to want way too much money for us to be able to resign him. Disappointing year we aren't going to want to resign him and try to keep developing him.

He's gone, enjoy the last season you get to watch him here...if you call watching someone who drops the ball consistently, runs poor routes and has the occasional big game enjoyable.

[swiper]

see: Peerless Price

[Mr. Pink]

see: Peerless Price

That's an unfair comparison. Price actually had an entire good season whereas Davis had an entire good playoff game.

[Night Train]

I think no matter what kind of year he has, he's done here after this season.
Maybe sooner.

Probably right.

I've noticed the last few days that many teams didn't pick up 5th year options on first rounders. Others did but it's highly probable they will be changing teams after this year.. Same with many Day 2-3 guys finishing up their rookie 3-4 year deal.

Once your team gives your Franchise QB the big contract, other financial situations arise. That leaves only several other players (your selected core) room for a decent to large paycheck.

The vast majority of the remaining roster gets 1-2 year deals. That's the imbalance of the cap. See the other 31 teams on Spotrac. They do the same thing. Not by choice.

Doesn't mean every guy teams let walk is a failure. Bills have obviously set up a future without Davis with the FA signings and draft selections. Oliver and others will be next.

The result is the market seems flooded annually with guys wanting the next big contract. Yet most will only find 1-2 year deals and be traveling mercenaries until their playing days are concluded.

That's why all this feigned anxiety I read here concerning losing players is so silly. The market is flooded every year. Look at all the guys Beane signed/re-signed/drafted since March.

[daryls61]

Big Game Gabe is going to get $15 mil a season in FA so Bills will have to move on. He has a high drop rate but his catch difficulty is also higher than most. He isnt like he dropping uncontested balls when he is wide open.

[notacon]

Davis is either going to have a monster year or another disappointing year...

Either way he's gone next year. Monster year he's going to want way too much money for us to be able to resign him. Disappointing year we aren't going to want to resign him and try to keep developing him.

He's gone, enjoy the last season you get to watch him here...if you call watching someone who drops the ball consistently, runs poor routes and has the occasional big game enjoyable.
You could be correct...and just as easily be completely wrong.

He is not even close to as bad as some sour pusses here opine. The usual from the usual suspects.

[sukie]

You could be correct...and just as easily be completely wrong.

He is not even close to as bad as some sour pusses here opine. The usual from the usual suspects.
He wouldn’t be that bad had he not been designated WR2. Name a worse WR2 on a playoff team.

[daryls61]

He wouldn’t be that bad had he not been designated WR2. Name a worse WR2 on a playoff team.

Ravens ran with Watkins and Robinson. Marvin Jones on Jags, Giants had Hodgens who was on our practice squad and Slayton, Dallas had Gallaup at #2.

[sukie]

Okay name a worse 2 that started and ended the season as WR2.

[sukie]

BTW Ravens replaced all 3 WRs which means Gabe should worry

Robinson same number of receptions (48) but 64% rate of receptions over Gabe’s 51.2%

[Typ0]

So sal is saying if Gabe Davis wasn't Gabe Davis we would have picked a receiver at #1 instead of a TE?

[justasportsfan]

Shorter will be groomed this year to be Gabe's replacement.

[swiper]

Probably right.

I've noticed the last few days that many teams didn't pick up 5th year options on first rounders. Others did but it's highly probable they will be changing teams after this year.. Same with many Day 2-3 guys finishing up their rookie 3-4 year deal.

Once your team gives your Franchise QB the big contract, other financial situations arise. That leaves only several other players (your selected core) room for a decent to large paycheck.

The vast majority of the remaining roster gets 1-2 year deals. That's the imbalance of the cap. See the other 31 teams on Spotrac. They do the same thing. Not by choice.

Doesn't mean every guy teams let walk is a failure. Bills have obviously set up a future without Davis with the FA signings and draft selections. Oliver and others will be next.

The result is the market seems flooded annually with guys wanting the next big contract. Yet most will only find 1-2 year deals and be traveling mercenaries until their playing days are concluded.

That's why all this feigned anxiety I read here concerning losing players is so silly. The market is flooded every year. Look at all the guys Beane signed/re-signed/drafted since March.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/36402907/fifth-year-option-tracker-nfl-players-2020-first-round

[Historian]

Neither of these predictions are credible. Especially the “maybe sooner”. Seriously?!?!? What, you think the Bills are going to cut him??? Or trade him????

Fat chance!!!

.

Beane stated publicly, the best players play.

Davis was inconsistent all year in 2022.

He will get a lot of preseason snaps to show if he's gotten over the yips.

And the WR room just got heavier.

He'll get his payday, but not here, IMO. This team is just too good.

OTOH, if Shakir turns into Perry Tuttle the thinking may change.

This is a simple game. You either produce, or you're sent packing.

[swiper]

Beane stated publicly, the best players play.

Davis was inconsistent all year in 2022.

He will get a lot of preseason snaps to show if he's gotten over the yips.

And the WR room just got heavier.

He'll get his payday, but not here, IMO. This team is just too good.

OTOH, if Shakir turns into Perry Tuttle the thinking may change.

This is a simple game. You either produce, or you're sent packing.

Two things about this post.

1) Beane is loyal to his players, especially the ones he's drafted. He let Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Epenesa, even Cody Ford play too much. They should have been "pulled" much sooner than they did or will be.

2) Wasn't it said at some point after the season that Davis was playing with an injury much of the season? LINK (https://heavy.com/sports/buffalo-bills/cole-beasley-gabe-davis-tweet/)


A fan tweeted back, “He needs to improve his catch %,” to which Beasley responded, “He will do that if he’s not catching everything down the field. His whole route tree is low percentage right now.”


Another person tweeted to Beasley, “I mean he WAS worse this last season. Sick of the drops. Time to upgrade at #2 receiver because I’m 1000% not paying him.” Beasley retweeted the message and wrote, “He improved in every stat category last year from the previous even with a nagging ankle injury.”

[Forward_Lateral]

Gabe has the potential to be a game changing #1 WR. Injuries have riddled him somewhat, and I agree with Beasley when he points out that most of the routes Gabe runs are intermediate to long, aka, more difficult to complete.

Just remember, everyone was ready to jettison Eric Moulds out of Buffalo after his first 2 years, and he turned out to be pretty good.

[notacon]

He wouldn’t be that bad had he not been designated WR2. Name a worse WR2 on a playoff team.

Off the top of my head....


Zay Jones – JAX
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – KC
Devin Duvernay – Baltimore
Keenan Allen – LA Chargers (relatively equal….Davis had better stats)
Michael Gallup – Dallas
Richie James – NY Giants

[sukie]

All of those guys hauled in worse than 51.6% of their targets?

[notacon]

All of those guys hauled in worse than 51.6% of their targets?

Jesus. Look it up yourself.

That’s not the only important stat.

[sukie]

You listed them
a. As unequivocal number 2s
b. You listed them as better.

ok total receptions… Zay has way more.
Scantling had almost identical numbers and he was really a 3 if 152 catches doesn’t show Kelce as a WR.

51.9 Percent and receptions total in the low 40s blows on a pass happy offense for a number 2.

[Mr. Pink]

Gabe Davis catch rate is abysmal and there's no way anyone can deny it.

51.9% does not make for a long career.

[Historian]

Gabe Davis is no Eric Moulds.

[Forward_Lateral]

Gabe Davis is no Eric Moulds.

Yet. He could be though. We don't know.

[sukie]

Yet. He could be though. We don't know.
He’s already late. Moulds exploded tear 3 averaging over 1000 yards the next 7 years. Dude was a terror on DBs. Imagine him with Josh? Gabe ain’t no Moulds.

[sahlensguy]

Buying something on sale doesn't speak of its "value." Sorry Sal.

[JoeMama]

Gabe Davis reminds me of former Steelers WR Mike Wallace.

Not a super high volume reception guy, but a definite big-play, high YPR guy.

You're probably not gonna get 70+ receptions from him. But the deep strikes are there.

[DraftBoy]

Yet. He could be though. We don't know.

I don’t know, Moulds issues coming out were around maturity. When he was the primary read he ran strong routes, displayed great hands, and was an exceptionally physical receiver.

Davis isn’t really any of those things. Don’t get me wrong his sideline toe taps in the playoffs are out of this world and his catch radius is good, but I need more than that from my #2.

[Night Train]

Moulds would catch contested balls in double coverage and drop easy playground throws while wide open.

[sukie]

Gabe Davis reminds me of former Steelers WR Mike Wallace.

Not a super high volume reception guy, but a definite big-play, high YPR guy.

You're probably not gonna get 70+ receptions from him. But the deep strikes are there.
If Kincaid pans out the tight end dilemma for DCs should free up Diggs from the doubles which is what a good WR2 does. Might be a moot point. Gabe is cheap. Is there trade value better than just letting him walk?

[notacon]

You listed them
a. As unequivocal number 2s
b. You listed them as better.

ok total receptions… Zay has way more.
Scantling had almost identical numbers and he was really a 3 if 152 catches doesn’t show Kelce as a WR.

51.9 Percent and receptions total in the low 40s blows on a pass happy offense for a number 2.

I stand by my post.

Gabe Davis is better than most of WR’s in the NFL....and he is better than the ones I mentioned with your criteria of those in the playoffs last year.

As in I would rather have Gabe Davis than any of these guys...

Zay Jones – JAX
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – KC
Devin Duvernay – Baltimore
Keenan Allen – LA Chargers
Michael Gallup – Dallas
Richie James – NY Giants

[sukie]

I showed stats… you made an opinion list.

[notacon]

I showed stats… you made an opinion list.
No, you showed limited cherry picked stats that prove nothing.

I really don’t care. I stand by my post.

[sukie]

Receivers catch balls. Gabe caught 51.9 % of his targets. His job is to catch targets. He successfully did his job about 48 times. Those numbers suck for the #2 WR.

in further cherry picking (Sarc) Zay Jones successfully did his job 67% of the time meaning he used hands and made it so the ball didn’t hit the turf 82 times. Might be cherry picking stats for a REECEIVVVER.

Keenan Allen… no fair since only played 10 games but let’s look, shall we?
in 10 games the meaningless stat of catches (Sarc) Allen had 66 catches so he did he’s job 66 times and the frequency of job competence was a pedestrian (Sarc) 74.5% . Yeah you are right Gabe was better. I apologize.

you shouldn’t listen to Buscaglia when he drinks spritzers.