Dawson Knox: Teaming me with Dalton Kincaid

[Woodman]

Dawson Knox- Teaming me with Dalton Kincaid will "open up a lot of doors" for Bills offense - ProFootballTalk (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/05/09/dawson-knox-teaming-me-with-dalton-kincaid-will-open-up-a-lot-of-doors-for-bills-offense/)

The Bills traded up in the first round to take Dalton Kincaid (https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player/70481/dalton-kincaid) last month and making that kind of move can make other players at the same position feel a bit nervous about their status.
That’s not the case for Buffalo’s top returning tight end, however. Dawson Knox (https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player/50082/dawson-knox) called himself “super excited” about Kincaid joining the team and said he envisions the two players creating matchups that have the offense “drooling before the ball is even snapped” this season.

[Woodman]

“’12’ personnel is going to open up a lot of doors (https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/dawson-knox-more-two-tight-end-usage-will-open-a-lot-of-doors-for-bills/article_ce667728-edb7-11ed-b0a9-c30e5fefa725.html) for the offense. . . . We want them in nickel if we want to run and if we bring in two tight ends, sometimes they will have to bring in a base linebacker,” Knox said, via Ryan O’Halloran of the Buffalo News. “That will start to expose some mismatches. It’s going to be really fun.”

[Lexwhat]

I said before, and still believe, that this is Beane's best 1st round draft pick since Josh Allen.

[Woodman]

I said before, and still believe, that this is Beane's best 1st round draft pick since Josh Allen.

Totally agree!

:gobills:

[Goobylal]

Why should Knox feel nervous? He just signed a huge contract last off-season.

[notacon]

Why should Knox feel nervous? He just signed a huge contract last off-season.

Well...he does have some “worry” after the 2024 season. But not much.

2023 is the last year of any guaranteed salary....$1.95M.

Next season his cap number explodes to $14.4M, but there would be a $11.7M dead cap hit if released....and only a $2.7M cap savings. 2025 is more problematic as his cap hit increases to $15.4M (barring any restructure) with an even split between dead cap and cap saving...both around $7.8M.

With Kincaid being a first round pick, the Bills are assured cost controlled contract for at least four years. Which happens to coincide with Knox’s last contract year of 2026....when he will be 30 years old.

Kincaid is not a threat to Knox in terms of how they play the position. We already know that.

What is exciting is how much Kincaid opens up the offense, hopefully plugging the huge hole of lack of the passing game in the middle of the field. McKenzie was supposed to be the answer, but, sadly he was not up to the task.

The most interesting stat (from the Buffalo News article (https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/dawson-knox-more-two-tight-end-usage-will-open-a-lot-of-doors-for-bills/article_ce667728-edb7-11ed-b0a9-c30e5fefa725.html)) was the low amount of 12 personnel the Bills employees last season....4%. As compared to....



Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Bills used “12” personnel on 4% of their pass plays, tied for second-lowest in the NFL with the Rams and ahead of only Cincinnati (3%). Baltimore (34%) and Kansas City (29%) led the league.


Copying KC is welcome news. Kincaid seems to have the tools to make this a real threat.

[notacon]

Matt Bowen, ESPN Staff writer, published this take on the “2023 NFL Draft: Best team fits, landing spots for top rookies (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/37422780/2023-nfl-draft-best-team-fits-landing-spots-top-rookies)”....




Dalton Kincaid (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4385690/dalton-kincaid), TE, Buffalo Bills (https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills)

Drafted: Round 1, No. 25

Why he is a perfect fit: The Bills ran just 32 snaps of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) last season, the lowest total in the league. But with Kincaid now in the mix, we should expect a shift in offensive philosophy from coordinator Ken Dorsey. I think Buffalo can create great pass-game matchups with two tight ends in the game. Paired with Dawson Knox (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3930086/dawson-knox), Kincaid can be the move/flex target at the position, with seam-stretching ability and catch-and-run skills.

Kincaid will be an inside, vertical stretch target for quarterback Josh Allen (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3918298/josh-allen) against split-safety coverages, but he can also be deployed as a boundary X receiver to create man-coverage mismatches. Think of him as a versatile pass-catcher who gives the Bills matchup looks against base and sub-personnel packages. He's coming off a productive year with 70 catches, 890 yards and 8 touchdowns.

[Forward_Lateral]

Remember how dangerous The Pats were with Gronk and Hernandez?

If The Bills can even come close to replicating that, look out

[Woodman]

Remember how dangerous The Pats were with Gronk and Hernandez?

If The Bills can even come close to replicating that, look out

Works for me.

[sukie]

It’s all about Mr Dorsey

[swiper]

Remember how dangerous The Pats were with Gronk and Hernandez?

If The Bills can even come close to replicating that, look out

That's exactly what's coming. The Bills are going to be an offensive powerhouse. Can't wait.

[swiper]

It’s all about Mr Dorsey

Why you gotta be a stick in the mud?

[Oaf]

Curious, if we were so into this setup, why not just sign Mike Gesicki in FA?

[Goobylal]

Curious, if we were so into this setup, why not just sign Mike Gesicki in FA?

He has the potential to be far better. Plus he'll be cheaper.

[Forward_Lateral]

Curious, if we were so into this setup, why not just sign Mike Gesicki in FA?

Is this a serious question?

[Goobylal]

Well...he does have some “worry” after the 2024 season. But not much.

2023 is the last year of any guaranteed salary....$1.95M.

Next season his cap number explodes to $14.4M, but there would be a $11.7M dead cap hit if released....and only a $2.7M cap savings. 2025 is more problematic as his cap hit increases to $15.4M (barring any restructure) with an even split between dead cap and cap saving...both around $7.8M.

With Kincaid being a first round pick, the Bills are assured cost controlled contract for at least four years. Which happens to coincide with Knox’s last contract year of 2026....when he will be 30 years old.

Kincaid is not a threat to Knox in terms of how they play the position. We already know that.

What is exciting is how much Kincaid opens up the offense, hopefully plugging the huge hole of lack of the passing game in the middle of the field. McKenzie was supposed to be the answer, but, sadly he was not up to the task.

The most interesting stat (from the Buffalo News article (https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/dawson-knox-more-two-tight-end-usage-will-open-a-lot-of-doors-for-bills/article_ce667728-edb7-11ed-b0a9-c30e5fefa725.html)) was the low amount of 12 personnel the Bills employees last season....4%. As compared to....



Copying KC is welcome news. Kincaid seems to have the tools to make this a real threat.

He got $31M guaranteed, which is generational wealth. If the Bills cut him after the 2024 season, someone else will give him a good salary.

[Frenchman]

Anyone would be wanting to work with that of Dawson Knox, class act all the way.

[notacon]

He got $31M guaranteed, which is generational wealth. If the Bills cut him after the 2024 season, someone else will give him a good salary.
To be accurate, Knox got $19.92M in “fully guaranteed” money. The difference between “guaranteed” and “fully guaranteed” are not trivial. A primer on the subject can be found here (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-free-agency-total-guarantees-vs-full-guarantees-and-the-ways-contracts-should-be-evaluated/).


$17.2M of that “fully guaranteed” money was paid on the day he signed the contract. It’s prorated, for cap purposes over five years....but it’s all in his pocket. The rest come with roster bonuses, workout bonuses and so on.

With that said, $19.92M is “generational wealth” as well. And he is going to get paid a lot more than $19.92M over the life of the contract. But that’s not the issue here.

I am not suggesting in any way, shape or form that there is any chance that Knox is going anywhere after the 2024 season. I am not suggesting that there is any reasonable chance that he is going anywhere after the 2025 season either. But the numbers do change quite bit that make that a viable possibility if conditions warrant.

Something is going to have to give after 2023 and beyond as his cap hit explodes.....$14.4M for 2024, $15.4M for 2025 and $15.9M for 2026, the last year of his contract, which is when he will be 30 years old, and the possibility of Kincaid’s extension will have to be decided.

If things go well, Kincaid's 5th year option will be picked up, probably at a cost of well over $10M....maybe a lot more. The calculations for fifth year options are just as complicated as most of the NFL contract ins and outs.

Nominally, (without adjustments upwards based on playing time, being named to the Pro Bowl or multiple Pro Bowls) the basic amount is calculated by the “average of the 3rd to 25th highest paid salaries at their position over the previous five season (https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections)” (which is why I have posted a table (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263081-Name-one-starter-on-our-team-that-if-we-lost?p=5020920&viewfull=1#post5020920)with the Bills’ roster and where they rank in AVG/Y salary for each position...these things matter) the fully guaranteed 2027 5th year option for Kincaid could easily be around $12-$15M.

Today, even with Kincaid on a cost controlled rookie contract, the AVG/Y rank for these two TE’s is #7 & #28. That is the highest for any two positions on the Bills, equaling CB, where Tre’ White and Taron Johnson’s AVG/Y are the same #7 & #28.

I am 100% supportive of the Bills selection of Kincaid. The offense is in critical need for more offensive weapons and Kincaid appears to bring that to the team.

But, the cost of two highly paid TE’s cannot be ignored. It is extremely rare that any team will have two players in the same position paid within the top 10 in AVG/Y for that position. Just something to keep an eye on going forward. Along with the WR position.

[Woodman]

He has the potential to be far better. Plus he'll be cheaper.

100% :gobills:

[Turf]

I'd say this is newsworthy.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bills?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bills</a> relied heavily on analytics in drafting TE Dalton Kincaid. Senior Director of Football Research Dennis Lock believes Kincaid has the best hands of any player at any position in the draft in the last EIGHT seasons. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BillsMafia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BillsMafia</a> <a href="https://t.co/ZqpKJCQq8C">pic.twitter.com/ZqpKJCQq8C</a></p>&mdash; Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBillsGuys/status/1656449054744915970?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 11, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[sahlensguy]

Good to hear that Knox sounds excited. If he is fully engaged, this will work out.

[Woodman]

Good to hear that Knox sounds excited. If he is fully engaged, this will work out.
I would be excited as hell if I had Kincaid on the field when I was on it.

There's no limit to the havoc those two will provide.

:gobills:

It's called T.E.A.M.

[f8ta1ity54]

Sounds like a lot of the offense is hinged on one player... that's not ideal. It would be nice to find another easy button option at WR as insurance.

[Woodman]

Sounds like a lot of the offense is hinged on one player... that's not ideal. It would be nice to find another easy button option at WR as insurance.

He opens things up for everybody else.

There will be easy button options all over the place.

Weapons weapons weapons ain't it great!!!!!


:gobills:

[f8ta1ity54]

My point is that if Kincaid goes down for any extended period of time, the bills will be right back where they were last year.

[Woodman]

My point is that if Kincaid goes down for any extended period of time, the bills will be right back where they were last year.

We're better with him sure.

[f8ta1ity54]

Yea, so again, what's the back up plan?

[Woodman]

Yea, so again, what's the back up plan?

What's the backup plan for KC if Kelce goes down?

[notacon]

Sounds like a lot of the offense is hinged on one player... that's not ideal. It would be nice to find another easy button option at WR as insurance.

Huh??? You are not paying attention. It’s not that the drafting of Kincaid means "a lot of the offense is hinged on one player”, in fact, it’s exactly the OPPOSITE, where the weakness last season was that a lot of the offense hinged on Diggs and, of course Allen.

Any substantive additions to the offense to provide more weapons is a positive. And the Bills had several of those.

Kincaid is not the only new weapon the Bills added. The additions of Damien Harris, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty & Justin Shorter are all extremely welcome newcomers to ensure that "a lot of the offense is NOT hinged on one player"

[yordad]

My point is that if Kincaid goes down for any extended period of time, the bills will be right back where they were last year.
You mean right back where they had one of, if not the best offense in the league?

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

I have a feeling that (barring injury) by November, all doubters in this draft pick will change their tune.

[Woodman]

You mean right back where they had one of, if not the best offense in the league?
:cheers: You'd think that much is obvious right.

[Woodman]

I have a feeling that (barring injury) by November, all doubters in this draft pick will change their tune.

Feel exactly the same. :cheers:

[notacon]

I have a feeling that (barring injury) by November, all doubters in this draft pick will change their tune.

Could be by late September, early October.

[f8ta1ity54]

What's the backup plan for KC if Kelce goes down?
Would you rather have Andy Reid figuring that out or Sean McDermott?

[f8ta1ity54]

You mean right back where they had one of, if not the best offense in the league?
Yea, how did that work out against good teams in the playoffs?

[Mr. Pink]

I have a feeling that (barring injury) by November, all doubters in this draft pick will change their tune.

I have a feeling that come November everyone will be questioning this pick.

Unless you're okay with a guy who will likely have 20-25 catches for 300-350 yards and maybe a couple TDs at that point in the season.

There's only so many balls to go around and we didn't even use Knox to his fullest so what makes anyone think we're going to use TE2 enough to justify the pick and trade?

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

I have a feeling that come November everyone will be questioning this pick.

Unless you're okay with a guy who will likely have 20-25 catches for 300-350 yards and maybe a couple TDs at that point in the season.

There's only so many balls to go around and we didn't even use Knox to his fullest so what makes anyone think we're going to use TE2 enough to justify the pick and trade?
Because I don’t see him being used completely as a tight end. I see him being used as a big slot receiver. A red zone target

I could be wrong but I’m happy with this pick

[Woodman]

Would you rather have Andy Reid figuring that out or Sean McDermott?

Doesn't concern me .... we have McD.

Now answer my question if you can. :cheers:

[Woodman]

Because I don’t see him being used completely as a tight end. I see him being used as a big slot receiver. A red zone target

I could be wrong but I’m happy with this pick


:gobills:


We made a huge upgrade in the weapons department.

[Woodman]

There's only so many balls to go around and we didn't even use Knox to his fullest so what makes anyone think we're going to use TE2 enough to justify the pick and trade?



It's the combination that will be much more difficult to stop.

(one at a time or both on the field at the same time)

Knox and Kincaid take your pick Josh has another weapon.

The ways to move the ball just dramatically increased.

Harder to make the wrong choice .... "quality surrounds" .... if you get that. :D

[Mr. Pink]

It's the combination that will be much more difficult to stop.

(one at a time or both on the field at the same time)

Knox and Kincaid take your pick Josh has another weapon.

The ways to move the ball just dramatically increased.

Harder to make the wrong choice .... "quality surrounds" .... if you get that. :D

If Tight End was a focal point of our offense or a major part of our offense, I would agree.

It just isn't.

Knox had 48 catches last year, less than 3 per game, so honestly how many catches do you reasonably expect Kinkaid to have? Just for some perspective here, all the other tight ends on the team combined for 9 total catches.

Meanwhile this wasn't just a down year for tight ends on the team or for Knox...he had 49 catches in 2021 and all other tight ends combined for....9 total catches.

[sukie]

Stop thinking Kincaid is only a TE. He’s a slot guy as well. Can’t compare past seasons to what this season offers by way of 12 personnel with nightmarish options that need to be defended. Did Kelce have 115 catches because KC uses the TE or is it because KC has Kelce as a TE slot guy?

[notacon]

If Tight End was a focal point of our offense or a major part of our offense, I would agree.

It just isn't.

Knox had 48 catches last year, less than 3 per game, so honestly how many catches do you reasonably expect Kinkaid to have? Just for some perspective here, all the other tight ends on the team combined for 9 total catches.

Meanwhile this wasn't just a down year for tight ends on the team or for Knox...he had 49 catches in 2021 and all other tight ends combined for....9 total catches.

TE was not the “focal point of pour offense” LAST season for sure. That’s why Kincaid’s addition is so critical.

It’s irrelevant how many catches Knox had last year.

The real comparison should be to Cole Beasley’s 82 catches in BOTH 2020 and 2021. That slot production (for whatever reason....play calling, McKenzie inability to get open, offensive strategy, Josh’s decisions) plummeted in 2022 to only 42 for McKenzie.

The total number of catches went down 13% from 2021 to 2022 from 415 (410 in 2020) to only 361 in 2022.

So, to answer your question....”...honestly how many catches do you reasonably expect Kinkaid [sic] to have?”....I would say SIXTY to SEVENTY.

[Mr. Pink]

I'm going to interject a little reality here with the thoughts of Kincaid being basically the slot WR...

Kincaid wasn't the starter at TE at Utah in 2020 or 2021 and didn't become the starter in 2022 until Brandon Kuithe had a season ending ACL injury. Know what Kincaid didn't get to do when he was the backup TE? Play slot receiver.

So to expect him to come in and just be able to play slot receiver from the jump is placing highly unrealistic expectations on the guy.

[sukie]

Has played most of his snaps from the slot - seems difficult to consider as a strict tight end - more of a jumbo slot player

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Dalton-Kincaid-TE-Utah

[Woodman]

<header class="entry-header" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; white-space: normal;">Josh Allen happy to have Dalton Kincaid aboard; pulling for Rory McIlroy at this week's PGA Championship (http://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/josh-allen-happy-to-have-dalton-kincaid-aboard-pulling-for-rory-mcilroy-at-this-weeks/article_9f96ef42-f44a-11ed-8907-8b016618481c.html)

</header>‘”Obviously super excited to get a weapon like him,” Allen said. “He’s very fluid in his route running. He’s a very fluid ball catcher. He tracks the ball well, so any time you get to add a piece to your offense like that, I can’t help but be excited. He seems like he’s a smart kid. … He’s going to help us out a lot.”‘

[notacon]

I'm going to interject a little reality here with the thoughts of Kincaid being basically the slot WR...

Kincaid wasn't the starter at TE at Utah in 2020 or 2021 and didn't become the starter in 2022 until Brandon Kuithe had a season ending ACL injury. Know what Kincaid didn't get to do when he was the backup TE? Play slot receiver.

So to expect him to come in and just be able to play slot receiver from the jump is placing highly unrealistic expectations on the guy.

How he is used is the most interesting question going into this season.

What is undeniable is that once Cole Beasley left, McKenzie did not fill the void, and as he said in his Go Long podcast, some of that was the routes he was assigned.

He felt that his speed was attempted to be taken advantage of and he was not sent over the middle (as an easy outlet) as much as Beasley was.

Kincaid is perfect to fill that role, even better than Beasley because of his size. By every indication, Kincaid does, in fact, have “elite” hands.

No one is expecting him to just come in and play slot receiver. But he WILL be used as a big target over the middle and his role will get larger and larger as the season progresses.

[Mr. Pink]

How he is used is the most interesting question going into this season.

What is undeniable is that once Cole Beasley left, McKenzie did not fill the void, and as he said in his Go Long podcast, some of that was the routes he was assigned.

He felt that his speed was attempted to be taken advantage of and he was not sent over the middle (as an easy outlet) as much as Beasley was.

Kincaid is perfect to fill that role, even better than Beasley because of his size. By every indication, Kincaid does, in fact, have “elite” hands.

No one is expecting him to just come in and play slot receiver. But he WILL be used as a big target over the middle and his role will get larger and larger as the season progresses.

All I'm saying is people put unrealistic expectations on players of this team for whatever reason.

We had people thinking McKenzie would be fine in the slot and Beasley would be no loss...how did that turn out?

We had people thinking Gabe Davis was a stud and how did that turn out?

We have people thinking Shakir is going to step up and play a major role in the offense this year.

Temper expectations so when a guy doesn't go out and have "60 catches" which he surely won't have, then you won't be disappointed.

[notacon]

All I'm saying is people put unrealistic expectations on players of this team for whatever reason.

We had people thinking McKenzie would be fine in the slot and Beasley would be no loss...how did that turn out?

We had people thinking Gabe Davis was a stud and how did that turn out?

We have people thinking Shakir is going to step up and play a major role in the offense this year.

Temper expectations so when a guy doesn't go out and have "60 catches" which he surely won't have, then you won't be disappointed.
Fair enough.


But I will not be “disappointed” if Kincaid does not get 60 catches because I think he will. If not, it will probably be very close.


Saying "he surely won't have” is an "unrealistic expectation”.

[sukie]

You i’m hoping he and Knox get a lot of looks making defenses guess. This should open up draws and pull doubles off of Diggs.

[Woodman]

Keep em guessing and confused ..... works for me. :D

[mightysimi]

It's all on Allen. If he really takes what the D gives and doesn't look for home runs, Kinkaid should catch a bunch. I would, however, like to see Kinkaid separate from NFL talent before making a prediction on how well he will do.

[sukie]

It's all on Allen. If he really takes what the D gives and doesn't look for home runs, Kinkaid should catch a bunch. I would, however, like to see Kinkaid separate from NFL talent before making a prediction on how well he will do.

I think Dorsey dialed up the constant home run balls. Early last season after the Rams game there was a marveling at the sudden patience and short game. RBs over the middle, a dink dunk approach. They went away

[Woodman]

It's all on Allen. If he really takes what the D gives and doesn't look for home runs, Kinkaid should catch a bunch. I would, however, like to see Kinkaid separate from NFL talent before making a prediction on how well he will do.

Patience must be demonstrated if that happens my confidence will soar .... how about yours?

[mightysimi]

Patience must be demonstrated if that happens my confidence will soar .... how about yours?
When we were blowing out teams all we did was get first downs and march. I would like to see a return to that. I don't need 98 yard tds and then putting a tired D back on the field.

[Woodman]

When we were blowing out teams all we did was get first downs and march. I would like to see a return to that. I don't need 98 yard tds and then putting a tired D back on the field.
I love it when we don't punt.

Great memories!