Bills Championship window

[ghz in pittsburgh]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/07/13/bills-championship-window-salary-cap-crunch-outlook

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The answers for the Bills and their front office are simple: They must draft much better, stop paying third contracts and cease with void years, as they’ve given out to Hyde, Dawkins and Milano.
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But executing said plan isn’t easy. And if Buffalo doesn’t reverse course, it runs a serious risk of becoming the worst combination sports has to offer: old and expensive.



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[OpIv37]

2021 was our year but… 13 seconds.

In 2020, we were good but has no playoff experience and the Chiefs were just better. Last year, one could argue that the Hamlin incident was just too much adversity to overcome, but the reality is that we had no answers for Cincy. They were so much better.

At this point, just get Hopkins and go for broke this year, and hope to win it. The early 90’s Bills are arguably the best team to never win a championship. The early 2020’s Bills are on the verge of joining them. If we don’t get it this year, we’re looking at cap jail and a rebuild that will take at least 3 years and Allen will be on the wrong side of 30 before we’re competitive again.

[sukie]

The Patriots can have a 2 decade window. So can Buffalo.

[Forward_Lateral]

As long as they have a top 5 QB, the window is there.

[OpIv37]

The Patriots can have a 2 decade window. So can Buffalo.
The cap numbers are what they are. The Bills can’t have a long window with that reality.

Also, the Patriots are the exception to the rule. They’re literally the only team that’s done that in the cap era. No one will ever do it again.

[sukie]

The cap numbers are what they are. The Bills can’t have a long window with that reality.

Also, the Patriots are the exception to the rule. They’re literally the only team that’s done that in the cap era. No one will ever do it again.
Never say never

[Thurmal]

2021 was our year but… 13 seconds.

In 2020, we were good but has no playoff experience and the Chiefs were just better. Last year, one could argue that the Hamlin incident was just too much adversity to overcome, but the reality is that we had no answers for Cincy. They were so much better.

At this point, just get Hopkins and go for broke this year, and hope to win it. The early 90’s Bills are arguably the best team to never win a championship. The early 2020’s Bills are on the verge of joining them. If we don’t get it this year, we’re looking at cap jail and a rebuild that will take at least 3 years and Allen will be on the wrong side of 30 before we’re competitive again.

2021 is so frustrating. That was clearly the year. We had, at that time, the best player in football, and he was having the best postseason for a QB in NFL history. Only the Bills could turn that into a divisional round exit. I honestly think I'll ever be able to ever forgive that coaching staff for botching that.

[notacon]

The cap numbers are what they are. The Bills can’t have a long window with that reality.

Also, the Patriots are the exception to the rule. They’re literally the only team that’s done that in the cap era. No one will ever do it again.

I don’t buy that at all.

There will bo some tough decisions to be made, like the Pats did....let high priced aging vets go (via trade or release) before their game degrades quickly.

We already know who are going to be in the spotlight for this...soon.

Diggs, Von Miller, Tre’ White, Mitch Morse....$79.7M in 2024 cap space (albeit, with only $3M in cap savings in 2024) but only Von Miller has guaranteed money in 2024 of $10.7M..

For 2025, Diggs, White and Miller can produce $26M in cap space by moving on. None have any guaranteed money (which is the real number to keep in mind). In act, there are only three players with guaranteed money in 2025....Allen ($16.5M), Elam ($2.7M) and Kincaid ($1.9M).

Diggs and Tre’ White will be prime trade targets after this season.

In today’s NFL the only player that is extremely difficult to replace is an elite QB. We have one. That makes everything possible.

[Goobylal]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

[YardRat]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

The first window, with Josh on a rookie contract (and a new HC/front office) closed, characterized by under-achievement.
The second window, with Josh on an expensive extension and limited time with other big contracts to some big contributors is probably only going to be two seasons ('23 and '24).
If they underachieve again, the opportunity for a championship is going to move on to the third window...jettison older and expensive players and try to re-build/re-tool around the franchise QB.

And each window gets tougher as the seasons roll by.

[OpIv37]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

They never had the cap issues that we currently do. We will waste at least 5 years of Josh’s prime rebuilding. Somehow, the Patriots figured out how to go 20 years without doing that. No one else has done that in the cap era.

Also, there were a lot of great QB’s in the Brady era. Rodgers, Rothlisberger, Matt Ryan, Brees, Peyton, Rivers, I know I’m forgetting a few. None of them came close to doing what Brady did.

And, Brady was never as physical or athletic as Josh, and Brady had very good OL play. He took a fraction of the punishment that Josh is taking. Josh will never last that long.

Just stop with the nonsense Brady comparisons. There are key differences that you are choosing to ignore.

[Goobylal]

They never had the cap issues that we currently do. We will waste at least 5 years of Josh’s prime rebuilding. Somehow, the Patriots figured out how to go 20 years without doing that. No one else has done that in the cap era.

Also, there were a lot of great QB’s in the Brady era. Rodgers, Rothlisberger, Matt Ryan, Brees, Peyton, Rivers, I know I’m forgetting a few. None of them came close to doing what Brady did.

And, Brady was never as physical or athletic as Josh, and Brady had very good OL play. He took a fraction of the punishment that Josh is taking. Josh will never last that long.

Just stop with the nonsense Brady comparisons. There are key differences that you are choosing to ignore.

Lots of teams have won SBs with their QBs not on rookie deals. And the team can absolutely fix their cap problems and draft well. What they really need is to be cheating and for Josh to take a smaller salary because he's getting paid under the table.

[YardRat]

Lots of teams have won SBs with their QBs not on rookie deals. And the team can absolutely fix their cap problems and draft well. What they really need is to be cheating and for Josh to take a smaller salary because he's getting paid under the table.

The only QB this century to win his first Super Bowl with the team that drafted him after a second deal is Peyton Manning. Technically Rodgers did also, but he didn't start until his extension and his second contract was minimal as a result.

No head coach since John Madden in '75 has won a Super Bowl without at least taking their team to one in their first six seasons.

Buffalo is going to have to buck a couple of very big trends if they are going to win a championship with McD and Allen.

[Goobylal]

The only QB this century to win his first Super Bowl with the team that drafted him after a second deal is Peyton Manning. Technically Rodgers did also, but he didn't start until his extension and his second contract was minimal as a result.

No head coach since John Madden in '75 has won a Super Bowl without at least taking their team to one in their first six seasons.

Buffalo is going to have to buck a couple of very big trends if they are going to win a championship with McD and Allen.

Being with the team that drafted them is immaterial. The point is QB salary.

And Josh has already bucked a lot of trends to be where he is.

[Night Train]

https://media.tenor.com/nom93LryqycAAAAM/bart-window.gif

[Historian]

They never had the cap issues that we currently do. We will waste at least 5 years of Josh’s prime rebuilding. Somehow, the Patriots figured out how to go 20 years without doing that. No one else has done that in the cap era.



I've thought a lot about this, (the Pats 20 years of dominance) and how it relates to Buffalo.

1. BB was never afraid to cut a guy loose in his prime. He always had his replacement waiting in the wings. That's scouting. (Lawyer Milloy)

2. BB never went after high priced FAs that I can remember. Just serviceable talent that fit his system, ie, Antowain Smith.

3. Brady was an anomaly that we may never see again. I think the system played to his strengths, and kept him healthy. He was also a fitness and nutrition nut.

4. The AFC East was pretty much a joke for at least 15 years.

5. A rich owner, and a great personnel department, and the Coach and GM on the same page.

6. Solid O line.

7. Solid d line and pass rush.

8. Tested the "elasticity" of the rules.

9. Solid coordinators, but always ready with their replacement.

10. New Stadium.

So where do the Bills stack up against those things? (and I'm sure there are more)

I think the AFCE is much tougher.

I think our coordinators are sub-standard.

First time Coach vs a veteran, who had won a SB as a coordinator.

I think our D line is good, I think our Oline is barely average.

Our personnel department is good, not great.

We don't cheat.

Everywhere else, I think we match up pretty well as an organization.

[Typ0]

I've thought a lot about this, (the Pats 20 years of dominance) and how it relates to Buffalo.

1. BB was never afraid to cut a guy loose in his prime. He always had his replacement waiting in the wings. That's scouting. (Lawyer Milloy)

2. BB never went after high priced FAs that I can remember. Just serviceable talent that fit his system, ie, Antowain Smith.

3. Brady was an anomaly that we may never see again. I think the system played to his strengths, and kept him healthy. He was also a fitness and nutrition nut.

4. The AFC East was pretty much a joke for at least 15 years.

5. A rich owner, and a great personnel department, and the Coach and GM on the same page.

6. Solid O line.

7. Solid d line and pass rush.

8. Tested the "elasticity" of the rules.

9. Solid coordinators, but always ready with their replacement.

10. New Stadium.

So where do the Bills stack up against those things? (and I'm sure there are more)

I think the AFCE is much tougher.

I think our coordinators are sub-standard.

First time Coach vs a veteran, who had won a SB as a coordinator.

I think our D line is good, I think our Oline is barely average.

Our personnel department is good, not great.

We don't cheat.

Everywhere else, I think we match up pretty well as an organization.

Where else is there? You pretty much covered it all in some way or another! Brady was the anomaly. And I like what you said in #2 as well...you put Brady in the system that spreads it's money around the right talent that work together and it is a painful 20 yrs.

[Typ0]

The Championship window will exist for as long as Josh stays a top QB. The Cheats' window lasted 20 years because of Brady.

OK. But Brady didn't train-wreck sometimes the way Allen does either that is what set him apart.

[Woodman]

The Patriots can have a 2 decade window. So can Buffalo.

Absolutely!!

:gobills:

[Woodman]

OK. But Brady didn't train-wreck sometimes the way Allen does either that is what set him apart.


We gotta get him to play Smart football CONSISTENTLY THAT'S WHAT Brady brought to the table.

Use all the assets you possess ...... easier said than done but the only way to win consistently.

[Woodman]

I've thought a lot about this, (the Pats 20 years of dominance) and how it relates to Buffalo.

1. BB was never afraid to cut a guy loose in his prime. He always had his replacement waiting in the wings. That's scouting. (Lawyer Milloy)

2. BB never went after high priced FAs that I can remember. Just serviceable talent that fit his system, ie, Antowain Smith.

3. Brady was an anomaly that we may never see again. I think the system played to his strengths, and kept him healthy. He was also a fitness and nutrition nut.

4. The AFC East was pretty much a joke for at least 15 years.

5. A rich owner, and a great personnel department, and the Coach and GM on the same page.

6. Solid O line.

7. Solid d line and pass rush.

8. Tested the "elasticity" of the rules.

9. Solid coordinators, but always ready with their replacement.

10. New Stadium.

So where do the Bills stack up against those things? (and I'm sure there are more)

I think the AFCE is much tougher.

I think our coordinators are sub-standard.

First time Coach vs a veteran, who had won a SB as a coordinator.

I think our D line is good, I think our Oline is barely average.

Our personnel department is good, not great.

We don't cheat.

Everywhere else, I think we match up pretty well as an organization.

Maybe this (#8) deserved a bit higher ranking :cheers:

[OpIv37]

I've thought a lot about this, (the Pats 20 years of dominance) and how it relates to Buffalo.

1. BB was never afraid to cut a guy loose in his prime. He always had his replacement waiting in the wings. That's scouting. (Lawyer Milloy)

2. BB never went after high priced FAs that I can remember. Just serviceable talent that fit his system, ie, Antowain Smith.

3. Brady was an anomaly that we may never see again. I think the system played to his strengths, and kept him healthy. He was also a fitness and nutrition nut.

4. The AFC East was pretty much a joke for at least 15 years.

5. A rich owner, and a great personnel department, and the Coach and GM on the same page.

6. Solid O line.

7. Solid d line and pass rush.

8. Tested the "elasticity" of the rules.

9. Solid coordinators, but always ready with their replacement.

10. New Stadium.

So where do the Bills stack up against those things? (and I'm sure there are more)

I think the AFCE is much tougher.

I think our coordinators are sub-standard.

First time Coach vs a veteran, who had won a SB as a coordinator.

I think our D line is good, I think our Oline is barely average.

Our personnel department is good, not great.

We don't cheat.

Everywhere else, I think we match up pretty well as an organization.
So basically, of your 10 points, we have half of them.

But, the state of the Div is a good point that I always bring up. I talk to a lot of fans of other teams and most of them don’t realize how crappy the AFCE was during the Pats’ run. It’s unreal that 3 teams in the same Div can all be so bad for so long, but it happened and the Patriots benefited in a huge way.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

We gotta get him to play Smart football CONSISTENTLY THAT'S WHAT Brady brought to the table.

Sounds simple but hard to do for Allen. This is another area where Allen lags behind Mahomes, Brady etc. from the get-go in NFL. Allen's career with football is a path where he's one man show all the way thru Wyoming in that either he made things happen or the team lost. Mahomes and even Brady as a backup in Michigan learned a long time ago they can rely on talents (plenty NFL or near NFL talent) around them. Sugar-high Allen is a symptom of that, but most often, it shows in the form of inconsistency, as in trying to do too much.

[YardRat]

Being with the team that drafted them is immaterial. The point is QB salary.

And Josh has already bucked a lot of trends to be where he is.

It absolutely relevant if you are expecting a Super Bowl from this team, with this make-up.

[Goobylal]

So basically, of your 10 points, we have half of them.

But, the state of the Div is a good point that I always bring up. I talk to a lot of fans of other teams and most of them don’t realize how crappy the AFCE was during the Pats’ run. It’s unreal that 3 teams in the same Div can all be so bad for so long, but it happened and the Patriots benefited in a huge way.

Cheating and a lousy division went a long way for them.


Sounds simple but hard to do for Allen. This is another area where Allen lags behind Mahomes, Brady etc. from the get-go in NFL. Allen's career with football is a path where he's one man show all the way thru Wyoming in that either he made things happen or the team lost. Mahomes and even Brady as a backup in Michigan learned a long time ago they can rely on talents (plenty NFL or near NFL talent) around them. Sugar-high Allen is a symptom of that, but most often, it shows in the form of inconsistency, as in trying to do too much.

Josh tends to do too much because he has to do too much. The OL has been a problem since he's gotten here. They keep Teller and draft Humphrey and they're looking pretty good. The WR corps is basically Diggs and a bunch of 3s or worse. And his OC's aren't great.


It absolutely relevant if you are expecting a Super Bowl from this team, with this make-up.

The makeup can change over the course of a season or two.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Josh tends to do too much because he has to do too much. The OL has been a problem since he's gotten here. They keep Teller and draft Humphrey and they're looking pretty good. The WR corps is basically Diggs and a bunch of 3s or worse. And his OC's aren't great.


That is not an excuse. And that is exactly why Brady is GREAT like no other and Mahomes showed some in that area last year. - lets hope Mahomes do not take that to the rest of his career. I don't think Brady had that many great weapons throughout his career, maybe Randy Moss for a couple of seasons (and Brady's number shot thru the roof in those years). In Brady's early years, he had less what the Bills give Allen now. BUT the GOAT always knew to let others or coax others to work for him, not himself (which will lead to nowhere).

[YardRat]

Cheating and a lousy division went a long way for them.



Josh tends to do too much because he has to do too much. The OL has been a problem since he's gotten here. They keep Teller and draft Humphrey and they're looking pretty good. The WR corps is basically Diggs and a bunch of 3s or worse. And his OC's aren't great.



The makeup can change over the course of a season or two.

History has shown that doesn't end up with a Super Bowl championship.

[Historian]

Maybe this (#8) deserved a bit higher ranking :cheers:

They were in no particular rank, Woodsie, I was just spitballing my ideas onto the screen.

One thing I forgot though, and it's a big one, is the NFL expanding the Wild Card round to include the #2 seed.

I'm sorry, but having to play an extra game at the end of the season is huge, especially to the guys that are dinged up.

Not injured per se, but dinged...hamstrings, groins, SORE ELBOWS, etc.

I think that if we get to skip the Colts and only play Baltimore, we fare better against KC.

I think that if we don't need to play NE, (albeit they played a perfect game) and just head into KC, perhaps we still have the juice to hold on for 13 seconds longer.

And lets not even talk about last season, and burnout.

As usual, the NFL changes a rule, and it ****s Buffalo.

See: escalator clauses, forward laterals, etc...

Just another part of the Buffalo curse, ala skate in the crease.

:down:

[OpIv37]

They were in no particular rank, Woodsie, I was just spitballing my ideas onto the screen.

One thing I forgot though, and it's a big one, is the NFL expanding the Wild Card round to include the #2 seed.

I'm sorry, but having to play an extra game at the end of the season is huge, especially to the guys that are dinged up.

Not injured per se, but dinged...hamstrings, groins, SORE ELBOWS, etc.

I think that if we get to skip the Colts and only play Baltimore, we fare better against KC.

I think that if we don't need to play NE, (albeit they played a perfect game) and just head into KC, perhaps we still have the juice to hold on for 13 seconds longer.

And lets not even talk about last season, and burnout.

As usual, the NFL changes a rule, and it ****s Buffalo.

See: escalator clauses, forward laterals, etc...

Just another part of the Buffalo curse, ala skate in the crease.

:down:

Not to mention the 17th game. It affects more than just us, obviously. But between only one team getting a bye and the 17th game, during their run, the Patriots could win the SB playing two fewer games and one less playoff win.

It’s another reason why their run will never be repeated. The rules make it harder now.

[Forward_Lateral]

As long as a team has a top tier QB, their window for success is open. Sure the Bills will eventually have to re-tool, but that's the NFL now. KC has done it a few times, and is still considered the best team in the NFL.

This, of course, all hinges on drafting. Beane has to be better at drafting, especially in the positions that you can't afford to be spending big dollars on. O-line specifically.

[notacon]

Not to mention the 17th game. It affects more than just us, obviously. But between only one team getting a bye and the 17th game, during their run, the Patriots could win the SB playing two fewer games and one less playoff win.

It’s another reason why their run will never be repeated. The rules make it harder now.

The lack of a bye for the first round of the playoffs is HUGE!!!

Just when the Buffalo Bills rose to SB contending status, the rules changed.

2019 was the first season of the Josh Allen era the Bill made the playoffs. They deserved their 5th seed and wild card status. That was the last year of 12 playoff teams and the top TWO seeded teams getting a bye.

Guess who benefited from that IMMENSELY????

The Kansas City Chiefs. #2 seed, and got a first round bye in 2019. Their division game was against Houston, who barely beat the green Bills.

The first season the Bills were legitimate SB contenders....2020, they get the #2 seed but have to play a wild card game while KC, sat at home enjoying their first round bye. KC goes to SB that year too.

2021, KC is the #2 seed (Bills #3) and KC is forced to play an additional playoff game....the 13 second game seemed to take much out of that team, as they ran out of gas in the second half of the AFCC game against Cincy, with Mahomes played the worst half of football in his career.


KC does not get a bye in 2021, and they don’t go to the SB.

2022, again the Bills are #2 seed, and KC get that all important bye. KC goes to the SB again.

I do not think it is a coincidence all three of KC’s Super Bowl appearances came the year they had a first round bye. And in the past four seasons they did not get to the SB the one season they did not have a first round bye.

Stretching back one more season, to 2018, when KC DID have a first round bye, they lost the AFCC game to NE who ALSO had a first round bye.

That one week off between the 17th game and the first playoff game, and only having to win TWO games to get to the SB instead of three is HUGE.

[notacon]

I did more research and it’s not a surprise what was a HUGE factor in New England’s two decade dominance.

They went to the Super Bowl NINE times since the 2001 season.

They won the Super Bowl SIX of those times, and lost three.

EVERY SINGLE ONE of those NINE seasons they went to the Super Bowl, they had a FIRST ROUND BYE!!!

In the past TEN YEARS, only THREE teams out of the TWENTY that went to a Super Bowl did NOT Get a first round bye.

The most unusual and outlier season was in 2021, which was the ONLY year this century (since 2000) that neither of the teams in the SB had a first round bye (LA Rams & Cincy)....not surprisingly this was only the second year of reduced number of teams getting a bye from two to one.

Anyone who says “the regular season does not matter” (as compared to the playoffs) are full of crap. The chances of getting to a SB is greatly enhanced with a first round bye. It is an anomaly to get there without one.

Even this past season, if the Bills managed to get the #1 seed (which was handed to KC because of the cancelled game) by winning that Monday night game in Cincy when Hamlin literally on the field....and YES the Bills could have won that game....no one will ever know for sure...does anyone doubt that a BYE week would have been ENORMOUSLY beneficial to the team?????

It would have been a completely different playoff.

KC has to play Miami at home. KC probably wins that game, and the others have same result...Cincy beats BAL, and JAX beats LAC....then, the division round is in a different solar system....

JAX at Buffalo (Buffalo wins that game)

Cincy at KC - they beat each other up, and it does not matter who wins, they are at a disadvantage coming off TWO games and having to go on the road for the AFCC..

With the extra week the Bills could have easily had a completely different vibe.

Either KC or Cincy coming to Buffalo for the AFCC game is a toss up.

The point is that KC lucked into getting a BYE once AGAIN....as they have had with all three of their SB appearances.