McDermott is Tempting History by Calling Defensive Plays

[notacon]

In today’s Buffalo News training camp preview, Ryan O’Halloran wrote about this interesting and important bit of Super Bowl history….

'It will be different': Bills' Sean McDermott on the spot as defensive play-caller (https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/it-will-be-different-bills-sean-mcdermott-on-the-spot-as-defensive-play-caller/article_230fa592-2585-11ee-a804-cffe0bf5631e.html)



On the macro scale, McDermott will be trying to buck two trends.

One, McDermott is one of only five head coaches who will call his team's defensive plays, joining Staley, Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay), Dennis Allen (New Orleans) and likely DeMeco Ryans (Houston). By comparison, 14 head coaches will call offensive plays.

And the big one. Among the 35 coaches who have won at least one Super Bowl title, it is possible none has also served as his team's defensive play-caller.

The Buffalo News researched the coaching staffs of each championship team, and since Super Bowl 12, every winning team's defense has been called by a coordinator or high-level assistant coach. The only unknown play-calling setups are the Baltimore Colts (Super Bowl 5) and Oakland Raiders (Super Bowl 11).


Is McDermott going to be the anomaly???

Time will tell.

[YardRat]

They are going to have to buck historical trends on more than just that front if they want to win championship.

Peyton Manning is the only QB this century to win a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him, that didn't at least take his team to one in his first three years starting (or, on his rookie contract).

No head coach since John Madden (or anybody that started their head coaching career in the Super Bowl era) has won a Super Bowl with a team without at least getting to one in their first six seasons as their coach.

[Typ0]

McDermott will be bucking his own trends if he develops a more aggressive defense that is more concerned with disrupting everything when they are on the field than getting burned for a TD. Our roster is good. **** all the coach bull**** get the hell out of the way and let our guys play some football. That is what McDermott is charged with and we will know what we have by week three.

I'm still not convinced he will be calling the defense on opening day -- mostly because they are full of ****.

[Gibby 2.0]

To be sure, I think this team takes a step back this year. I think they still make the playoffs and I do think McD's job is safe for the long term, but they are clearly in the midst of a retooling and so i think their plan is to tread water this year, build up the OL and get some talent on rookie contracts in the next year or so and then make a run in 2025 and 2026 for the new stadium.

[Mace]

To be sure, I think this team takes a step back this year. I think they still make the playoffs and I do think McD's job is safe for the long term, but they are clearly in the midst of a retooling and so i think their plan is to tread water this year, build up the OL and get some talent on rookie contracts in the next year or so and then make a run in 2025 and 2026 for the new stadium.

Just imho...they can't afford to tread water ..not at all. Their core is taking punishment and they're one Allen injury from being toast. This should be their prime...if it's not...it won't happen.

[Buffalogic]

To be sure, I think this team takes a step back this year. I think they still make the playoffs and I do think McD's job is safe for the long term, but they are clearly in the midst of a retooling and so i think their plan is to tread water this year, build up the OL and get some talent on rookie contracts in the next year or so and then make a run in 2025 and 2026 for the new stadium.

This is an absurd post. A 13-3 team doesn’t go into the following season trying to tread water with an all world qb. I mean come on. Anything short of a Super Bowl victory is a failed season. The time for slow progressive steps is over. They need to leap to a championship.

[justasportsfan]

I'm not worried about the defense as long as they build a solid wall around Josh. Let them score 30 per game as long as we score 50.

[Historian]

Are there really alot of "plays" to be called on defense?

Seriously.

[Forward_Lateral]

I hope he's more creative than Frazier.

[notacon]

I hope he's more creative than Frazier.

Except it was McDermott’s defense 100%. By all accounts from very well informed sports writers (beat writers) McD was deeply involved with everything about the defense.

The idea that he did not strongly affect Frazier’s play calling is fooling themselves. Defensive play calling was not done in a Frazier vacuum.

That is largely why McD decided to take over play calling after Frazier decided to take a year off from coaching.

Basically, he is simply maintaining what was already happening....McDermott’s defense and McDermott’s defensive strategy and McDermott’s virtual play calling.

[notacon]

I'm not worried about the defense as long as they build a solid wall around Josh. Let them score 30 per game as long as we score 50.

+1

It was the offense underperforming that ****ed up 2023.

Dorsey is the one with everything to prove as he was exposed as the season went on and did not come close to adjusting....despite having one of the best QB’s in the NFL and despite hardly having ANY injuries on offense.

[justasportsfan]

+1

It was the offense underperforming that ****ed up 2023.

Dorsey is the one with everything to prove as he was exposed as the season went on and did not come close to adjusting....despite having one of the best QB’s in the NFL and despite hardly having ANY injuries on offense.

Both units were better in regular season than playoffs where they folded.

With the fins and jets improving on O , we may now have to play in a shoutout every regular game in the AFCE

[Bill Cody]

If the O line takes a step forward this year so will the team. Just that simple. The pieces are all there.

[Oaf]

If the O line takes a step forward this year so will the team. Just that simple. The pieces are all there.


Right, which makes the lack of push at RT that much more concerning. Is Connor McG "HIM" at guard, as well?

[notacon]

Both units were better in regular season than playoffs where they folded.

With the fins and jets improving on O , we may now have to play in a shoutout every regular game in the AFCE

The biggest regular season disappointment last year was the offense underperforming in the regular season which cost the Bills a first round bye.

Yeah....I’m looking at the Miami and Minny game where the offense snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Woodman]

A 13-3 team doesn’t go into the following season trying to tread water with an all world qb. I mean come on. Anything short of a Super Bowl victory is a failed season. The time for slow progressive steps is over. They need to leap to a championship.

[Woodman]

I hope he's more creative than Frazier.

Damn he better be.

[Oaf]

The biggest regular season disappointment last year was the offense underperforming in the regular season which cost the Bills a first round bye.
Yeah....I’m looking at the Miami and Minny game where the offense snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

If Cam Lewis doesn't catch the ball for Jefferson on 4th and 18, we get a bye and host JAX instead of CIN. Doesn't change how good/bad we were as a team, but certainly gives us a better shot to overcome.

[jamze132]

To be sure, I think this team takes a step back this year. I think they still make the playoffs and I do think McD's job is safe for the long term, but they are clearly in the midst of a retooling and so i think their plan is to tread water this year, build up the OL and get some talent on rookie contracts in the next year or so and then make a run in 2025 and 2026 for the new stadium.

I think our roster is more talented this year, if we stay healthy. We’re not off to a great start though.

[cas22]

+1

It was the offense underperforming that ****ed up 2023.

Dorsey is the one with everything to prove as he was exposed as the season went on and did not come close to adjusting....despite having one of the best QB’s in the NFL and despite hardly having ANY injuries on offense.
you mean against the Cincy team that had 4 back ups starting on the o-line and rushed for 176 yards on our defense ..OH that offense.... no this team lost as a whole on both sides of the ball...

[notacon]

If Cam Lewis doesn't catch the ball for Jefferson on 4th and 18, we get a bye and host JAX instead of CIN. Doesn't change how good/bad we were as a team, but certainly gives us a better shot to overcome.

That was not the play that lost the game for the Bills. And, of course, thread stringer Lewis was on the field because the Bills defensive stars were falling to injury all season long. Plus, Edmunds missing the a large portion of the game (36% of defensive snaps instead of his usual 100%) because of injury was a huge factor. It was different defense (much worse) with Edmunds off the field.

But, still, don’t forget that Minny DID NOT SCORE on that drive.

Why??

The Bills defense STUFFED them at the goal line several times. The Vikings had the ball 1st down and goal at the Bills THREE yard line. Minny had TWO TRIES to get it in from the ONE and FAILED!! They got a second chance because of a penally, and the Bills STUFFED a sneak attempt on 4th down.

All Josh had to do is take a knee. He ****ing FUMBLED THE BALL and handed Minny the Go ahead TD.

Then, in OT, the Bils defense stopped Minny from scoring the winning TD. After they had the ball 1st and gaol at the Bills TWO. They settled for a go ahead FG.

Then, Josh THROWS A ****ING INT IN THE END ZONE to LOSE THE GAME.

I could go over the Miami debacle (as I have several times).

The FACT is that the the OFFENSE snatched defeat from the jaws of victory....AT LEAST TWICE!!!! THAT is why the Bills failed to get a 1st round bye.

[notacon]

you mean against the Cincy team that had 4 back ups starting on the o-line and rushed for 176 yards on our defense ..OH that offense.... no this team lost as a whole on both sides of the ball...

Oh...you mean against the Bills defensive line that was missing their two best players (and a third hampered by injury)??? And the S postion that was going into the third and fourth string??

Please. The Bills offense had hardly ANY injuries the full season.

Yes, the whole team played like crap that day. But the Bills offense STUNK IT UP WORSE. Especially considering they were playing with every starter.

As I have pointed out many, many times...ANY offense that scores only 10 points in a playoff game is GOING TO LOSE!!!!!!!

[notacon]

BTW...the whole idea that the Bils defense will be “more aggressive” because McDermott is going to be calling the plays is fools gold.

McDermott is the conservative one!!!! He has always been the one afraid to be more aggressive.

We saw it during the Cincy game that epitomized McDermott’s sometimes inexplicable cowardly approach.....

With 40 seconds left in the first half, Bills behind by 10 points, 17-7. 4th and 10 from Cincy 41 yard line....and McDermott decides to PUNT the ****ing ball.

Either you have an elite QB that makes miracle throws, or you don’t. If McDermott keeps up this chicken **** mindset....well.....you know the rest.

Hopefully, what we MIGHT expect from McDermott is some creativity because of the differences in the defensive roster.

The addition of Leo Floyd and Poona Ford could be HUGE. Same with Taylor Rapp. Hardly anyone expected Hyde and Poyer to return. Plus another year under Rousseau’s belt could make a big difference. Hopefully, the same with Elam’s second year

With the difficult to replace loss of Edmunds, McD could rely on the strength of a solid secondary and an improved D-Line (especially when Von Miller returns if he is healthy) to make up for the obvious weakness at MLB (Dodson, Klein, Bernard and rookie Williams are not a stellar group) by using more dime formations.

The Bills almost exclusively use the nickel. It is rather easy to justify putting your best 6 players (besides Milan and the 4 man D-line) on the field instead of rolling the dice with an overmatched LB (at least until hopefully, either Bernard or Williams steps up the plate).


The two stats to keep an eye on this year is percentage of dime formations, and percentage of blitzes. The ideal plan is to have the D-line more effective without having to blitz.

[Bill Cody]

you mean against the Cincy team that had 4 back ups starting on the o-line and rushed for 176 yards on our defense ..OH that offense.... no this team lost as a whole on both sides of the ball...

Poona will help our run D

[jamze132]

Oh...you mean against the Bills defensive line that was missing their two best players (and a third hampered by injury)??? And the S postion that was going into the third and fourth string??

Please. The Bills offense had hardly ANY injuries the full season.

Yes, the whole team played like crap that day. But the Bills offense STUNK IT UP WORSE. Especially considering they were playing with every starter.

As I have pointed out many, many times...ANY offense that scores only 10 points in a playoff game is GOING TO LOSE!!!!!!!

And most defenses that allow 27 points are going to lose. Please stop blaming the offense for everything.

[notacon]

And most defenses that allow 27 points are going to lose. Please stop blaming the offense for everything.
Actually, that is not very intellectually honest..

I did my own research and explained the facts, right here (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263466-NFL-Execs-coaches-players-rank-Matt-Milano-4-off-ball-LB-for-2023?p=5032143&viewfull=1#post5032143). You can’t say that you missed it since you posted of that thread, quoting my posts.

Although it is technically true that "most defenses that allow 27 points are going to lose”...it is not even close to a given, since the FACTS are that....

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In the same time period since 2000 (including 2022) in the playoffs when 45 teams that scored 10 points of less....having a ZERO WIN rate of 0-45....

137 teams have “allowed” (again, I believe it is more underperforming offenses rather than amazing defenses) 27 points or more.

In those games the team STILL WON 22% of those games. Yep....30-107 record. Certainly, getting 27 points hung on you is not desirable and you lose a lot of those games, but it is NOT as exponentially DEADLY as scoring only 10 points or less, which ASSURES a LOSS!!!

Here is another undeniable fact. Looking at KC who is now THE best example of offense over defense.

In the Mahomes era, in the playoffs, the Chiefs have had 27 or more points scored against them FOUR times. Their record for those four games?....

2-2.

In the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have had 27 or more points scored against them TWICE. Their record in those games?....


1-1

You don’t even need a good memory where the last SB win by KC had Philly scoring THIRTY FIVE POINTS against them....they still won.

The Bills saw the same thing in this year's playoffs....Miami score 31 points...the Bills scored more and won.

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It is disingenuous to say that I am “blaming the office for everything”. What I HAVE said is that the offense underperforming (especially in the Cincy game).... is MORE at fault for losses than the defense.

The FACTS are undeniable.....a team that scores 10 or less points in the playoffs (since 2000) LOSE EVERY SINGLE TIME.

A team that allows 27 or more points in the playoffs (since 2000) STILL WIN 22% of the time.....just like the Bills did just this year (Bills 34 - Miami 31) and Jacksonville (Jax 31 - LAC 30) and lo’ and behold in the ****ing SUPER BOWL - KC 38 - Phlly - 35.

If all one did was watch Bills games since 2018, the FACTS post an even starker picture.

Since 2018 the Buffalo Bills have....

Scored 10 points for less in 10 games. Their W/L record?...0-10

Allowed 27 of more points SEVENTEEN games. Their W/L record?....6-11.

That’s WINNING 35% of the games where the Bills allowed 27 or more points...even better than the 22% win rate in the playoffs league wide since 2000


Maybe it best if you take you head out of the sand and look at the cold, hard FACTS.

[notacon]

Here are more facts that put an exclamation point on validating my very accurate premise.

I did the same research of all games since 2018 (the same period I did for the Bills...the Josh Allen Era) for the Kansas City Chiefs.

The results were not surprising, although the reality of how little KC relies on defense and is ALL IN on the offense carrying them to greatness is undeniable.

Since 2018 the Kansas City have....

Scored 10 points or less in only TWO GAMES (vs Bills 10). Their W/L record?...0-2

Allowed 27 or more points in a whopping THIRTY-EIGHT games (38% of ALL the games they played in that time period....99...more than twice the number of games allowing 27 or more points than the Bills 17 games). Their W/L record?....20-18.

That’s WINNING 52% of the games where the Chiefs allowed 27 or more points...even better than the 22% win rate in the playoffs league wide since 2000, and better than the 35% win rate the Bills have had since 2018.

Additionally, out of the 18 games that KC lost while allowing 27 or more points, they themselves scored 27 or more points in EIGHTEEN of those games...50%.

The facts show the undeniable truth....if a team scores 10 or less points, they LOSE!!!! Virtually every time. The defenses they face are pretty much irrelevant. The Chiefs scoring 10 points of less only TWO TIMES in NINETY-NINE games is a testament to that fact.

If a team allows 27 or more points they STILL win a substantial percentage of the time. For the better teams, a very substantial percentage of the time.

In the NFL of today, OFFENSE wins championships. The Bills offense was not nearly as good as KC’s offense to overcome a leaky defense....and KC’s defense was MUCH more leaky than the Bills...twice as much (using the criteria of allowing 27 or more points)!!!

The KEY to success lies in taking full advantage of Josh Allen’s elite QB skills, him cutting down of the stupid mistakes (that Mahomes hardly ever does) and supercharge the offense to the nth degree.

Something that they DID NOT do in 2022, especially in the Cincy game, which should have been a shootout. Instead, Cincy’s offense was like a Howitzer and the Bills offense was like a badly aimed BB gun.