Waiting on Pads version of Kincaid

[ghz in pittsburgh]

The buzz of Kincaid is everywhere among spectators, Bills observers, and some national media. The Bills, though, have stayed relatively quiet, not hyping the rookie much.

Cover 1 has been all over him yesterday. One nugget for those into techniques is Kincaid's smooth running athleticism. Cover 1 yesterday mentioned when watching Kincaid run and cut, you don't see that extra step before the cut commonly seen among WRs, TEs, RBs. Sure enough the next TE ran the route, they can call out when he's cutting, not with Kincaid. Just picture those NBA small forward charging towards the basket (Actually I think Kincaid played Basketball before switching to football), the body lean on every step makes the defender hard to figure out which way from the next step. I remember someone described Travis Kelce having a "loose" body in running routes, easily creating separations. Beane may have finally drafted a next level guy (non QB) IF - I stress IF - Kincaid holds up when Pads are on. Football is a physical sport. When Pads come on, there will be hitting. Some of the smooth running dudes fade when getting hit. Hopefully he's not one of them.

I want to caution though having the smooth running and separation ability does not equate him to Kelce. There is also football intelligence department which Allen mentioned before on Kincaid that he has some growth to go yet because Kincaid picked up football not that long ago. Kincaid is already 23 and going to be 24 during the season, so not exactly a young guy any more. We'll see. Kelce is universally acknowledged for his football IQ against man and zone, and timing. Knox said one thing he learned at Tight-End U from Kelce is that if Mahomes has a 5 step drop, Kelce knows he needs to get open on his step 5; if Mahomes has a 7 step drop, he aims to get open on his step 7, not before, not after.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-training-camp-bills-fast-tracking-rookie-dalton-kincaid-for-what-seems-like-early-high-volume-role/

[DraftBoy]

Cover 1 is always over anybody they hype the **** out of. It serves their interest and helps them drive revenue.

[Forward_Lateral]

I hope he turns out to be the greatest TE of all time.

[Night Train]

Let the games begin. Answers all questions.

Media just doing their job of promotion. That's fine.

[Woodman]

19826

[notacon]

The observations from professional sports beat writers that are actually attending practice sessions are all similar.

Wicked footwork at the snap (like ghz mentioned (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263570-Waiting-on-Pads-version-of-Kincaid?p=5034982&viewfull=1#post5034982) an outgrowth from his basketball skill set), skillful route running in not telegraphing his intentions and then walling off a defender and burst of speed to produce separation....with elite hands.

An exciting skill set even if just during start of non-pad, non-contact first days of training camp.

Blocking (as expected) needs a lot of work, but he was not drafted to block....although it cannot be a liability. He’ll learn.

Games (and not pre-season ones) are what most of us are waiting on. Should be very interesting to see how quickly he is on the field early in the season.

McDermott’s is usually very careful how much pressure and playing time he gives rookies. There have been only two since he became coach in 2017 that have had substantial snap counts in year one.

Tre’ White - 98.56%
Tremaine Edmunds - 91.32% (would have been higher but he left the Monday night game vs NE in week 8 at the half due to concussion and did not play in week 9 vs Chicago).

Next higher snap count for a rookie was Zay Jones in 2017 - 75.92% Most others were below 50%.

Dawson Knox’s rookie year had him at 60.43% for the year with Lee Smith (29.4%) and Tyler Kroft (22.83) and Tommy Sweeney (12.07%) well behind. Knox started the year around 50% and saw more action as the season progressed, eventually hitting 70%+ in week 5, and surpassing 70% for seven games.

In contrast to 2022, when Knox had 76% snap count but missed two games. Lowest snap count was 69.1% in week 2 vs Tenn...but never went below 70% in every other game....surpassing 80% in 10 of the 15 games he was in.

Snap count for both Knox and Kincaid will be something to watch this season.

Should be extremely interesting and provide some insight (duh!!) on how Dorsey is going to step it up this season.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The fact that he never needs that little gather step or one extra pitter-patter at the stem is mesmerizing. I found myself just staring at his feet over and over… it’s remarkable</p>&mdash; Greg Cover 1 �� (@GregTompsett) <a href="https://twitter.com/GregTompsett/status/1685656997327175681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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[daryls61]

Seems like the guy can play. Prediction - 43 rec 6 TD's. Comes on at end of year and helps raise Lombardi trophy.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kincaid is going to be a problem for a lot of teams this year. Loved what I saw from the kid today ��*�� <a href="https://t.co/SwSyMTEvpL">pic.twitter.com/SwSyMTEvpL</a></p>&mdash; Larry⚡️Lovestein (@FuegooEggo) <a href="https://twitter.com/FuegooEggo/status/1685770061686976512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Forward_Lateral]

He MIGHT be what the Bills have been missing for decades, maybe forever.

[notacon]

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[Woodman]

He MIGHT be what the Bills have been missing for decades, maybe forever.

Very possible.

[Historian]

And Dawson Knox actually took a hand-off today in practice.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Kincaid has 20lb over Poyer and Bernard, right?

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[notacon]

Kincaid has 20lb over Poyer and Bernard, right?

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Biggest challenge for any rookie TE is blocking. Everyone expected blocking to be Kincaid’s weak spot.

He’ll learn.
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[cas22]

Kincaid didn't have to block in college much, he wasn't that type of T.E, if McD wants him to be a traditional type they shouldn't have drafted him...

[Chet]

Yeah I imagine blocking will always be an issue with him, but as long as he’s not a complete turnstile like Mike Gesicki then the talent should overshadow some of that weakness

[yordad]

Call me crazy, but some of those get loose moves look way faster and crisper than Kelce. Like Diggs style.

[OpIv37]

The observations from professional sports beat writers that are actually attending practice sessions are all similar.

Wicked footwork at the snap (like ghz mentioned (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263570-Waiting-on-Pads-version-of-Kincaid?p=5034982&viewfull=1#post5034982) an outgrowth from his basketball skill set), skillful route running in not telegraphing his intentions and then walling off a defender and burst of speed to produce separation....with elite hands.

An exciting skill set even if just during start of non-pad, non-contact first days of training camp.

Blocking (as expected) needs a lot of work, but he was not drafted to block....although it cannot be a liability. He’ll learn.

Games (and not pre-season ones) are what most of us are waiting on. Should be very interesting to see how quickly he is on the field early in the season.

McDermott’s is usually very careful how much pressure and playing time he gives rookies. There have been only two since he became coach in 2017 that have had substantial snap counts in year one.

Tre’ White - 98.56%
Tremaine Edmunds - 91.32% (would have been higher but he left the Monday night game vs NE in week 8 at the half due to concussion and did not play in week 9 vs Chicago).

Next higher snap count for a rookie was Zay Jones in 2017 - 75.92% Most others were below 50%.

Dawson Knox’s rookie year had him at 60.43% for the year with Lee Smith (29.4%) and Tyler Kroft (22.83) and Tommy Sweeney (12.07%) well behind. Knox started the year around 50% and saw more action as the season progressed, eventually hitting 70%+ in week 5, and surpassing 70% for seven games.

In contrast to 2022, when Knox had 76% snap count but missed two games. Lowest snap count was 69.1% in week 2 vs Tenn...but never went below 70% in every other game....surpassing 80% in 10 of the 15 games he was in.

Snap count for both Knox and Kincaid will be something to watch this season.

Should be extremely interesting and provide some insight (duh!!) on how Dorsey is going to step it up this season.

Don’t understand the footwork comments. Pass Blocking is mostly about footwork. Sure, there’s handfighting but it’s more about getting in the way as quickly as possible. Using footwork to get open is a different technique than using footwork to get in blocking position, but if he’s already got quick feet, he’d have to be a complete moron to not convert that to blocking.

Run blocking is a bit different because you have to utilize leverage to push the defender back, but we barely run and I highly doubt they drafted Kincaid with the intent to have him run block.

[JoeMama]

I hope he turns out to be the greatest TE of all time.

My inner homer keeps whispering in my ear, "please be the next Kelce please be the next Kelce please be the next Kelce"

[Historian]

Call me crazy, but some of those get loose moves look way faster and crisper than Kelce. Like Diggs style.

Tasker said the other day, that he has never seen a Buffalo Bills TE move with that type of fluidity before.

Just graceful after the catch.

That's saying a lot because we have had several very good tight ends here.

[Skooby]

We have to trade Knox if Kincaid is this good, can’t have that much on the books at TE.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

We have to trade Knox if Kincaid is this good, can’t have that much on the books at TE.

That's looking way down road if Kincaid is what we all think he can be. But even if he turns out to be, by the time he needs to be paid, Knox will be close to the end of his deal. Besides, if Knox is still good, it could mean we don't need that capable WR 2 if two TEs can accomplish the same end result.

[notacon]

We have to trade Knox if Kincaid is this good, can’t have that much on the books at TE.

Not for about three years. That’s the beauty of 1st round CBO dictated salary for the first four years.

Kincaid’s last season of cost controlled salary (excluding a 5th year option) is the last year of Knox’s current contract.

I have done extensive research (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263081-Name-one-starter-on-our-team-that-if-we-lost?p=5020920&viewfull=1#post5020920) on the fact (that you have touched on) that hardly ANY teams have two players in the same position that are within the top 10 of AVG/Y salary.

Today, Knox is ranked #8 at $$13M AVG/Y. Kincaid is #30 with $3.35M AVG/Y. That will not change (unless he gets an early extension) for four years.

It makes little sense to even think of trading Knox until after the 2024 season. Pre-June 1, 2024 trade saddles the Bills with $11.7M in dead cap albeit with a cap savings of $2.7M

Pre-June 1, 2025 trade is almost equal dead cap and savings...$7.8M & 7.6M respectively. Pre-June 1, 2026 trade has $3.9M dead cap and $12M cap savings.

The 2024 base 5th year option (https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/02/2023-fifth-year-option-salaries-revealed) for TE’s is $6.57M, $7.32M for third tier, $9.72M for second, and if he’s as good as expected, top tier is $$11.35. In 2023, $11.35M would be ranked #11 in AVG/Y (that will assuredly be much lower than #11 in 2027, the 5th year option year for Kincaid..

Financially, sure looks like 2025 (or early 2026 the last year of his contract) could be the sweet spot to trade Knox and get something of value.