When the Bills can run the ball effectively ...

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Not huge numbers but effectively.

Did you know Josh only put the ball up only 25 times? I noticed some of the big plays are from play action, definitely the last TD to Diggs.

The defense had 2 things going: 1) no big plays from the Dolphins. I posted here that I was willing to give up 2 big plays to them. Turns out none. 2) stopped Miami running the ball with front 4. Honestly I agree with Romo that Miami probably should run the ball more, particularly in the 2nd half. But with the Bills offense humming as they are today, it is tough for teams in catching up position to run the ball on us.

For a stretch of couple of weeks, I was kind of thinking maybe, just maybe Miami hit on a QB with Tua --- Maybe the media got into my head. Turns out Tua is a level below the Mahomes, Allen level. The way he folded when the game went on told me as much.

[OpIv37]

It’s quite simple. It’s a pass happy league but offenses can’t be one dimensional. Being effective in the run game not only gets us some production but it forces defenses to respect the run, which opens up the passing game.

And, running takes time off the clock, which limits touches for a potent offense like Miami.

[sahlensguy]

Tua is really good. Not Allen/Mahommes great but still really good. Never was in their class.Benefits from McDaniel and Hill/Waddle playing to his strengths. His play today didn't change my opinion of him. His center was out and his LT left in the 2nd qtr. Our D line was awesome today.

That said, the faith we've had in the red zone in our running game has been transformative. Will really pay dividends in December.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

My point is Tua has to play within a structure. If the structure has a hole, or not sound enough, he can not support the whole offense by himself. For guys like this, there will be defensive mind that can find cracks in that structure and ruins it. Modern NFL salary cap means there will no perfect structure for anyone.

His 70 point victory last week is an eye openner. Granted we know it is not a norm but still, for someone under center to achieve something none of the QB from Joe Montana on down was able to achieve that feat ...

[sahlensguy]

My point is Tua has to play within a structure. If the structure has a hole, or not sound enough, he can not support the whole offense by himself. For guys like this, there will be defensive mind that can find cracks in that structure and ruins it. Modern NFL salary cap means there will no perfect structure for anyone.

His 70 point victory last week is an eye openner. Granted we know it is not a norm but still, for someone under center to achieve something none of the QB from Joe Montana on down was able to achieve that feat ...

Meh. 70 points was more of a reflection on the system than it was on Tua. He had only 3 more completions and the same number of yards in the game as Russel Wilson did, but won by 50.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Today, Fangio's penchant for man coverage was helpful. Was it his plan to constantly leave poor Kohou out on an island vs Diggs?

Defensive genius? Not today. He got outsmarted all day long.

But yeah, clearly the run game, and particularly the guard play, has been stellar. Torrence is Beane's best O-line pick.

[Woodman]

My point is Tua has to play within a structure. If the structure has a hole, or not sound enough, he can not support the whole offense by himself. For guys like this, there will be defensive mind that can find cracks in that structure and ruins it. Modern NFL salary cap means there will no perfect structure for anyone.

His 70 point victory last week is an eye openner. Granted we know it is not a norm but still, for someone under center to achieve something none of the QB from Joe Montana on down was able to achieve that feat ...

[Woodman]

Today, Fangio's penchant for man coverage was helpful. Was it his plan to constantly leave poor Kohou out on an island vs Diggs?

Defensive genius? Not today. He got outsmarted all day long.

But yeah, clearly the run game, and particularly the guard play, has been stellar. Torrence is Beane's best O-line pick.
Miami defensive game plan failed it's just that simple.

Are offense stayed disciplined.

[Historian]

Against a point-a-minute team, it controls the clock, which shortens the game.

Like the Giants did to us in SB XXV.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

So far the 12 personnel seems to help Josh to stay grounded: hand the ball off with a light box defenders and check the ball down more often to TEs and backs -- I might add the RBs receiving and YAC is way way better than Singletary and Moss. It also helps that the Bills don't play much catching up in this young season. Schematically, 12 personnel is prime for play action, and we know what play action does for Josh, but it helps the O-Line as well. All the former coaches and players said play-action slows down the D-Line, even just a bit.

I'm hoping it is more of a maturity of Josh Allen when he becomes a veteran in NFL: don't be antsy looking for a big play every 5 plays or so like he used to. Let the big plays come to you!

[notacon]

The Bills took stock of their weaknesses on the offense and addressed them ALL.

THAT is why the most turnover was on the offense (a whopping ONE THIRD of the offensive roster)

The Bills improved the O-line....improved the RB room....improved the WR room....improved the TE room.

We are seeing the results.

[Forward_Lateral]

It's amazing what running backs that don't miss gaping holes can do for an offense.

- - - Updated - - -


The Bills took stock of their weaknesses on the offense and addressed them ALL.

THAT is why the most turnover was on the offense (a whopping ONE THIRD of the offensive roster)

The Bills improved the O-line....improved the RB room....improved the WR room....improved the TE room.

We are seeing the results.

BUT THEY DIDN'T DO ANYTHING IN THE OFFSEASON TO IMPROVE, AND MIAMI DID! JGALGJ;LAHJGSA;KLJGF

[Woodman]

So far the 12 personnel seems to help Josh to stay grounded: hand the ball off with a light box defenders and check the ball down more often to TEs and backs

It has made a real difference ...... a good one.

[Woodman]

The Bills improved the O-line....improved the RB room....improved the WR room....improved the TE room.

We are seeing the results.


It's really paid dividends so far.

[Woodman]

Did you know Josh only put the ball up only 25 times?



This is such an important stat. :cheers:

[Ed]

Not huge numbers but effectively.

Did you know Josh only put the ball up only 25 times? I noticed some of the big plays are from play action, definitely the last TD to Diggs.

The defense had 2 things going: 1) no big plays from the Dolphins. I posted here that I was willing to give up 2 big plays to them. Turns out none. 2) stopped Miami running the ball with front 4. Honestly I agree with Romo that Miami probably should run the ball more, particularly in the 2nd half. But with the Bills offense humming as they are today, it is tough for teams in catching up position to run the ball on us.

For a stretch of couple of weeks, I was kind of thinking maybe, just maybe Miami hit on a QB with Tua --- Maybe the media got into my head. Turns out Tua is a level below the Mahomes, Allen level. The way he folded when the game went on told me as much.
I heard a stat today on a podcast that on play action Josh was 9/10 for 206 yards and 3 TDs. Running the ball effectively is definitely key. Strong running and a healthy amount of play action will lead to good things for this team.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

On ESPN, Dan Orlavsky is chomping the bit that Allen should be under center all the time. Note league wide, shot gun snaps are the norm nowadays. Me personally, I think Allen has already graduated from the NFL school of reading defenses; he does not need that extra fraction of a second to read the defense in shot gun position. What you gain under center is a bigger threat of run when your running back heads towards the LOS with speed, which really helps your linemen, especvially when dealing with those speed edge rushers where Brown and even Dawkins had trouble with in the past.

[Woodman]

I must admit I feel better when he's under center.

[Forward_Lateral]

On ESPN, Dan Orlavsky is chomping the bit that Allen should be under center all the time. Note league wide, shot gun snaps are the norm nowadays. Me personally, I think Allen has already graduated from the NFL school of reading defenses; he does not need that extra fraction of a second to read the defense in shot gun position. What you gain under center is a bigger threat of run when your running back heads towards the LOS with speed, which really helps your linemen, especvially when dealing with those speed edge rushers where Brown and even Dawkins had trouble with in the past.

I don't think he should be under center all the time, but I think they should definitely do it more.

[sahlensguy]

Makes sense to be under center the more they run 12 personnel. The D shows their hand with more even fronts. Killer for good play action.

[Woodman]

Makes sense to be under center the more they run 12 personnel. The D shows their hand with more even fronts. Killer for good play action.

Love it!!!! :rockout::rockout:

[ghz in pittsburgh]

TBN has a weekly analysis of Allen's play. The breakdown of pass vs Run as follows:
1st Quarter, 18 plays, 8 passes, 10 runs. They score 14.
2nd Quarter, 14 plays, 9 passes, 6 runs. they score 17 - including getting a turnover deep in Miami territory
3rd quarter, 10 plays, 6 passes, 4 runs. They score 10 - including getting a turnover in Miami territory
4th quarter, 4 plays, 2 passes, 2 runs. They score 7.

Seems like setting up the run early; then play action running up the score; then pound the rock to run the time out.
http://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/bill-cowher-on-sean-mcdermotts-super-bowl-quest-ive-been-right-where-hes-at/article_f03392aa-5d42-11ee-a1c8-df5a6cfb9bf3.html

[sukie]

On ESPN, Dan Orlavsky is chomping the bit that Allen should be under center all the time. Note league wide, shot gun snaps are the norm nowadays. Me personally, I think Allen has already graduated from the NFL school of reading defenses; he does not need that extra fraction of a second to read the defense in shot gun position. What you gain under center is a bigger threat of run when your running back heads towards the LOS with speed, which really helps your linemen, especvially when dealing with those speed edge rushers where Brown and even Dawkins had trouble with in the past.

Hlad you brought this up. The mere threat of a run is helping so significantly when Josh runs Play action. Average in air yards per attempt from under center is a whopping 17+ yards.

it gives the WR a fraction more time in the route and that is what has freed up Diggs last game. I hate that standing shotgun handoff. Ugh.

more under center please.

[acehole]

I feel like this team did what Balboa did switching to southpaw.

We did not have a run game to be able to "Sell" play action.

Now we can sell it.

We now have the whole field we can use.

Run "Line of scrimmage"
TE intermediat routes
WR deep...

Lots of holes in the Swiss cheese that has to set up as opposing defenses.

I have been following this team for a long time.

This is the best team playing the best football on all phases.

[sukie]

The DKs in 12 personnel is huge. Knox is excellent at blocking and Kincaid slides off a block and is always open. It’s a fun wrinkle. Dorsey has shocked me in HIS own development this year. Well Done.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Regarding the 12 personnel, there is one thing Thad Brown brought up in his show. When Kincaid is on the field, 80% of the time it is a pass. I'm sure defenses are going to adapt now that there is enough data for meaningful analysis.

Kincaid's strength is pass catching so it is not a surprise the Bills play to what he does the best. The 80% number may also be skewed that when it is an obvious passing down, they likely bring Kincaid onto the field. Regardless, it is a long road for the rookie and I truly believe his full potential will be on display next season.

[sukie]

Regarding the 12 personnel, there is one thing Thad Brown brought up in his show. When Kincaid is on the field, 80% of the time it is a pass. I'm sure defenses are going to adapt now that there is enough data for meaningful analysis.

Kincaid's strength is pass catching so it is not a surprise the Bills play to what he does the best. The 80% number may also be skewed that when it is an obvious passing down, they likely bring Kincaid onto the field. Regardless, it is a long road for the rookie and I truly believe his full potential will be on display next season.

but the D would still need to account for the 12 which makes doubling Diggs a lot more difficult.

[sahlensguy]

Regarding the 12 personnel, there is one thing Thad Brown brought up in his show. When Kincaid is on the field, 80% of the time it is a pass. I'm sure defenses are going to adapt now that there is enough data for meaningful analysis.

Kincaid's strength is pass catching so it is not a surprise the Bills play to what he does the best. The 80% number may also be skewed that when it is an obvious passing down, they likely bring Kincaid onto the field. Regardless, it is a long road for the rookie and I truly believe his full potential will be on display next season.

Fortunately, Kincaid isn't the only guy we line up in 12 personnel. Quintin Morris is used that way and even Trent Sherfield (27 snaps vs Miami)

[notacon]

Regarding the 12 personnel, there is one thing Thad Brown brought up in his show. When Kincaid is on the field, 80% of the time it is a pass. I'm sure defenses are going to adapt now that there is enough data for meaningful analysis.

Kincaid's strength is pass catching so it is not a surprise the Bills play to what he does the best. The 80% number may also be skewed that when it is an obvious passing down, they likely bring Kincaid onto the field. Regardless, it is a long road for the rookie and I truly believe his full potential will be on display next season.

Is that a stat that has been published?

So far in 2023, the Bills have passed on 54.75% of their offensive plays (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct). #22 in the NFL. Down a little bit from 2022’s 59.44%

Kincaid has been on the field for 61.17% of the offensive snap counts (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023-snap-counts.htm). A little less than Knox’s 67.03%

I’m not a math wiz, but those numbers don’t seem to add up to “When Kincaid is on the field, 80% of the time it is a pass”...does it?

[Ed]

Is that a stat that has been published?

So far in 2023, the Bills have passed on 54.75% of their offensive plays (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct). #22 in the NFL. Down a little bit from 2022’s 59.44%

Kincaid has been on the field for 61.17% of the offensive snap counts (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023-snap-counts.htm). A little less than Knox’s 67.03%

I’m not a math wiz, but those numbers don’t seem to add up to “When Kincaid is on the field, 80% of the time it is a pass”...does it?
To keep it simple just assume the Bills have run 100 offensive plays, 55 passing and 45 running. If Kincaid was on the field for 49 of those passing plays and 12 running plays then he's played 61% of the snaps and 80% of them were passing plays.

[notacon]

To keep it simple just assume the Bills have run 100 offensive plays, 55 passing and 45 running. If Kincaid was on the field for 49 of those passing plays and 12 running plays then he's played 61% of the snaps and 80% of them were passing plays.

A math wiz!!! Thanks

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Is that a stat that has been published?

So far in 2023, the Bills have passed on 54.75% of their offensive plays (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct). #22 in the NFL. Down a little bit from 2022’s 59.44%

Kincaid has been on the field for 61.17% of the offensive snap counts (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023-snap-counts.htm). A little less than Knox’s 67.03%

I’m not a math wiz, but those numbers don’t seem to add up to “When Kincaid is on the field, 80% of the time it is a pass”...does it?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bills?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bills</a> run-pass (dropbacks) split last two weeks:<br>WAS 33-32<br>MIA 29-27<br><br>Dalton Kincaid run-pass split last two weeks:<br>WAS 6-29<br>MIA 6-24<br><br>No doubt garbage time runs/kneel downs skew the team split, but interesting trend for Kincaid&#39;s role.</p>&mdash; Thad Brown (@thadbrown7) <a href="https://twitter.com/thadbrown7/status/1709253129424814325?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[notacon]

<iframe id="twitter-widget-0" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" class="" style="position: static; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 441px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;" title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOltdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2ZvbGxvd2VyX2NvdW50X3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9iYWNrZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19yZWZzcmNfc2Vzc2lvbiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZm9zbnJfc29mdF9pbnRlcnZlbnRpb25zX2VuYWJsZWQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X21peGVkX21lZGlhXzE1ODk3Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRyZWF0bWVudCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29 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 ydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9mcm9udGVuZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1709253129424814325&lang=en&origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.billszone.com%2Ffanzone%2Fshowthread.php%2F263936-When-the-Bills-can-run-the-ball-effectively%3Fp%3D5047249&sessionId=58e691e2f470aab232fda720fa4f4de631f94dd1&theme=light&widgetsVersion=7e31f10ca29dc%3A1696453545681&width=1920px" data-tweet-id="1709253129424814325"></iframe>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


My thanks to both you and Ed for the response to my queries <iframe scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/widget_iframe.34999e64cd909e9be3bbd826bafcd2c4.html?origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.billszone.com" title="Twitter settings iframe" style="display: none;"></iframe><iframe id="rufous-sandbox" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" style="position: absolute; visibility: hidden; display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px; padding: 0px; border: medium;" title="Twitter analytics iframe"></iframe>

[TigerJ]

The difference between Josh Allen, an inconsistent QB with almost magical talent and Josh Allen, perhaps the best QB ever in the NFL, is the discipline to accept the need to make a throwaway pass on occasion and the importance of trusting his teammates. Part of trusting teammates is having teammates who merit that trust, including running backs. Buffalo has running backs and an offensive line this season who merit Josh's trust.

[Woodman]

To keep it simple just assume the Bills have run 100 offensive plays, 55 passing and 45 running. If Kincaid was on the field for 49 of those passing plays and 12 running plays then he's played 61% of the snaps and 80% of them were passing plays.

49 is almost 90% of the passing plays.

[Woodman]

49 of 61 is ..... 80.3278689% exactly.

[Mr. Pink]

I know this isn't a Kincaid thread but holy cow was that a straight up bad pick.

17 catches 118 yards through 5 games.

[Woodman]

Hlad you brought this up. The mere threat of a run is helping so significantly when Josh runs Play action. Average in air yards per attempt from under center is a whopping 17+ yards.

it gives the WR a fraction more time in the route and that is what has freed up Diggs last game. I hate that standing shotgun handoff. Ugh.

more under center please.

Hate the shotgun formation.

[Woodman]

I know this isn't a Kincaid thread but holy cow was that a straight up bad pick.

17 catches 118 yards through 5 games.

I wouldn't say that just yet .... it's what they have him doing that's affecting his efficiency in my opinion .... I still believe he was a good pick.

[Mr. Pink]

I wouldn't say that just yet .... it's what they have him doing that's affecting his efficiency in my opinion .... I still believe he was a good pick.

Part of why it's bad is because of how he's used and how we use tight ends in our offense and have used tight ends in the offense since McDermott has been here.

We traded up for a guy who makes zero difference. A guy who most of us should have known at the time of the pick would have made zero difference. A guy who will never make any difference with the way we run our offense.

Straight up bad pick.

[sahlensguy]

Part of why it's bad is because of how he's used and how we use tight ends in our offense and have used tight ends in the offense since McDermott has been here.

We traded up for a guy who makes zero difference. A guy who most of us should have known at the time of the pick would have made zero difference. A guy who will never make any difference with the way we run our offense.

Straight up bad pick.

I can't argue with that. After extending Knox, this pick was a heads ratchet. Especially knowing how we don't use tight ends in the first place.

Another square peg in a round hole, along with Elam.

[Woodman]

Update: Kincaid is in concussion protocol.

[notacon]

Part of why it's bad is because of how he's used and how we use tight ends in our offense and have used tight ends in the offense since McDermott has been here.

We traded up for a guy who makes zero difference. A guy who most of us should have known at the time of the pick would have made zero difference. A guy who will never make any difference with the way we run our offense.

Straight up bad pick.

Jesus. How silly.

Trying to declare a #1st round pick as a “straight up bad pick” after five games is foolish!!!! These kind of knee jerk reactions are silly.

Out of the six players with the most targets (14 or more) Kincaid has the highest catch percentage....89% (17/19). Knox is the worst at 58% (11/19). He also has the third most targets behind the top two WR’s. Here are the stats after only five games...



<tbody>

Catches
Targets
%


Diggs
50
39
78%


Davis
26
18
69%


Cook
18
14
78%


Kinaid
19
17
89%


Harty
14
11
79%


Knox
19
11
58%

</tbody>

To say that "A guy who will never make any difference with the way we run our offense.” is rather premature at best.


McD’s m.o. is fairly easy to understand when it comes to rookies. He does not like to rush their development or use, and does not trust them until he does. There is little reason to doubt that he will be more important in the offensive scheme as the year progresses.

Come back after the end of the season. Or better yet, after year two.

[Woodman]

I know this isn't a Kincaid thread but holy cow was that a straight up bad pick.

17 catches 118 yards through 5 games.

Maybe it's just a little bit on the playcaller :idunno:

[Woodman]

Kincaid update: October 11th 6:15pm

Tight end Dalton Kincaid has been in concussion protocol even though he was cleared after being pulled from Sunday’s game for a check by the league’s Unaffiliated Neurotrauma Consultant. The fact that he was limited today — even though it was only a walkthrough practice — means that Kincaid has cleared the first stages of the NFL’s concussion protocol. The hope would obviously be that he will be a full participant in the next two days, not experience any setbacks, and be ready by game time Sunday.

[Historian]

Maybe it's just a little bit on the playcaller :idunno:

Agreed.

It seems to me that Dorsey sets up a game plan, and refuses to make adjustments.

That's fine if you're winning by two touchdowns at the half.

The problem is, when your quarterback is struggling, be it his fault, the line, the WRs, whatever..... you need to rethink your plan, and give your offense some easy plays, screens, etc, to try and work them into a rhythm.

You just can't throw deep to Diggs every play.

Kincaid should be part of that. Even if it's a simple four yard buttonhook.

[Woodman]

I mean who doesn't enjoy a good buttonhook. :gobills:

We need a Dorsey smiley ...... maybe 2 one for when we want to bash and one when he calls things better.