O’Halloran: “Bills should try to trade for Broncos' Surtain”

[notacon]

Intriguing idea from Buffalo News’ Ryan O’Halloran.

Probably not going to happen, but, it could. He lays out the full possibilities. It’s not the wildest idea….


Ryan O'Halloran: Bills should make Broncos say 'No!' on trade offer for cornerback Pat Surtain II (https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/ryan-ohalloran-bills-should-make-broncos-say-no-on-trade-offer-for-cornerback-pat-surtain/article_125aad30-620e-11ee-9a7b-8fbdb2de23c3.html)



A 28-point win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs’ three-point squeaker over the New York Jets hours later, confirmed the Buffalo Bills as equal parts the class of their division and conference.

But a reinforcement is required after top cornerback Tre’Davious White sustained a season-ending torn Achilles tendon.

It is time for General Manager Brandon Beane to go all in, which he has done before (see defensive end Von Miller in free agency).

It is time for Beane to get really bold, which he has done before (see trading a first-round pick for receiver Stefon Diggs).

Before the Bills fly to London on Thursday night for Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Beane should call Denver Broncos GM George Paton.

Make Paton say, “Heck, no!” to a trade offer for terrific cornerback Pat Surtain II.

Surtain, 23, is in his third NFL season after being drafted ninth overall by Paton in 2021 and has six interceptions in 37 games.


Why the 1-3 Broncos should consider it: They don’t have enough good players and even if they beat the Jets this week, they are no match for Kansas City or even the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West. They need to rebuild their depth chart and Surtain is the best commodity to trade. Will it invite immediate scorn and pain? Of course. Will it help the Broncos become competitive down the line? Possibly.

…snip…

But it won’t come cheap (Part 1): A comparable price would be what Jacksonville got for disgruntled cornerback Jalen Ramsey in 2019 – first-round picks in 2020-21 and a fourth-rounder in 2021. Surtain is better than Ramsey and doesn’t carry any drama.

The Bills’ package should start with their 2024 first-round pick and cornerback Kaiir Elam (2022 first-round selection). It would be hard for Beane to deal Elam, who figures to be active Sunday for the first time this year. But the Bills have Christian Benford or Dane Jackson to play opposite Surtain and Taron Johnson is set as the nickel.

Our offer would be Elam, a 2024 first and a 2025 second that becomes a first if the Bills win the Super Bowl after the ’23 or ’24 seasons.
But it won’t come cheap (Part 2): Surtain will eventually be the NFL’s highest-paid cornerback; he is eligible for a contract extension in March 2024. The Bills would pick up his fifth-year option for 2025 (the industry website Over The Cap projects that at $19.73 million if Surtain makes a second Pro Bowl).

…snip…

The tough decision for Beane would be moving on from White after the season. (It’s OK to feel bad for White about his injury, but the game and the football business goes on – he would be the first to admit that.)

Cutting White would result in $10.36 million and $4.13 million “dead” cap hits in 2024-25. But the Bills create $6.26 million and $12.54 million, respectively, in space.

Surtain would be a bargain next year – his base salary is only $1.05 million and he has a $2.46 million roster bonus. The aforementioned fifth-year option number could be lowered with a contract extension that pushes money into the future when the cap will continue to rise.

Trading Elam would mean “dead” cap hits of $3.57 million and $1.78 million in 2023-24, respectively, per Over The Cap.

More…

[Forward_Lateral]

It's a high price to pay, but Surtain is better than any corner they'd pick in the 1st rounds of the next 2 drafts, plus you have him for this year plus 2 more at minimum. If they could somehow do it without trading Elam, who I think it's too early to give up on, I'd prefer it, but I would not complain if they made a move like this.

[Historian]

Swap him for Elam and next years second

[Canadian'eh!]

I'd do it.

Elam is a bust. I'm not sure his involvement matters. They might take a flyer on him since he's cheap and maybe would do better in their system.

A first is not so bad for a TOP young CB when you consider it will almost certainly be a 20 or later, and the other is a low second and only another low 1st if we win a SB.

Would Denver Do it? I'm guessing no. The only reason i think MAYBE is that they clearly overpaid for Wilson and might want to stock up on draft capital for what obviously is a needed rebuild.

My question is, what might other teams offer if they WOULD trade Surtain. I'm guessing 2 1sts that are higher picks might be out there.

[Canadian'eh!]

Swap him for Elam and next years second
Or just ask "pretty please"?

Elam and a 2nd gets you laughed at and hung up on.

[Buffalogic]

Elam is a bust? What a comment. Jeez.

[ParanoidAndroid]

We have two solid, young CBs who are going to be just fine.

[Historian]

Or just ask "pretty please"?

Elam and a 2nd gets you laughed at and hung up on.

I don't think so.

You can sweeten the pot a little, but like the piece says, Denver is going nowhere this year, probably next.

They may even be looking to draft a quarterback.

[Novacane]

Not happening.

[OpIv37]

IIRC the Bills are already roughly $20 million over the projected ‘24 cap with only 42 players under contract. We’d have to eat Tre’s dead cap while still finding cap room for 15 more players and absorbing Surtain’s hit (which is the smallest problem).

If we did it, it would be for this year and next because there is no way Beane pays for a top CB FA.

I’m on the fence. It would be going all on for this year or maybe next, but it would **** up the cap down the road. And cost a 1st.

[notacon]

I'd do it.

Elam is a bust. I'm not sure his involvement matters. They might take a flyer on him since he's cheap and maybe would do better in their system.

A first is not so bad for a TOP young CB when you consider it will almost certainly be a 20 or later, and the other is a low second and only another low 1st if we win a SB.

Would Denver Do it? I'm guessing no. The only reason i think MAYBE is that they clearly overpaid for Wilson and might want to stock up on draft capital for what obviously is a needed rebuild.

My question is, what might other teams offer if they WOULD trade Surtain. I'm guessing 2 1sts that are higher picks might be out there.

No, Elam is NOT a “bust”. Not even close.

The Bills are blessed with Benford coming on quickly. Just because a 6th round like has over performed does not mean that Elam is a bust.

In fact, Elam was playing extremely well at the end of last season.

[notacon]

IIRC the Bills are already roughly $20 million over the projected ‘24 cap with only 42 players under contract. We’d have to eat Tre’s dead cap while still finding cap room for 15 more players and absorbing Surtain’s hit (which is the smallest problem).

If we did it, it would be for this year and next because there is no way Beane pays for a top CB FA.

I’m on the fence. It would be going all on for this year or maybe next, but it would **** up the cap down the road. And cost a 1st.

As O’Halloran observed, Surtain’s cap hit for 2024 would be relatively low. Only $6.6M. Cutting (or trading) Tre’ would result in a $6.2M cap savings for the same year.

The 5th year option for Surtain would be effective for the 2025 season, and could easily be lowered with an extension.

If anything, moving off of Tre’ and replacing him with Surtain would be a two-fer....an excellent young CB that has years and years ahead of him...and a very favorable cap move.

The issue is that Denver will be loath to let him go. And Beane is loath to give up high value draft capital.

But, O’Halloran’s idea is very good and realistic. Denver is about to go into a full blown rebuild. And they have to make up for the total ****up of trading for Russell Wilson.

[OpIv37]

As O’Halloran observed, Surtain’s cap hit for 2024 would be relatively low. Only $6.6M. Cutting (or trading) Tre’ would result in a $6.2M cap savings for the same year.

The 5th year option for Surtain would be effective for the 2025 season, and could easily be lowered with an extension.

If anything, moving off of Tre’ and replacing him with Surtain would be a two-fer....an excellent young CB that has years and years ahead of him...and a very favorable cap move.

The issue is that Denver will be loath to let him go. And Beane is loath to give up high value draft capital.

But, O’Halloran’s idea is very good and realistic. Denver is about to go into a full blown rebuild. And they have to make up for the total ****up of trading for Russell Wilson.
Before the deadline, they play the Jets, Pack and Chiefs twice. 3 losses minimum for them. Maybe they’ll be willing to trade after that and we can get him in before the hard part of our schedule.

[Kenny]

Way too early to make a call on Elam.

I mean, everyone gave up on Epenesa, but he's finally (yr4?) playing like we all hoped he would

[notacon]

Before the deadline, they play the Jets, Pack and Chiefs twice. 3 losses minimum for them. Maybe they’ll be willing to trade after that and we can get him in before the hard part of our schedule.

Who knows???? Denver sure looks like a dumpster fire right now.

[sahlensguy]

I would love to get him. Agreed, do what it takes. Broncos are in 'cant get any lower than here mode' with little to build on. The Wilson trade depleted the war chest. Surtain is their best player and won't let him go cheap, if at all.

[sahlensguy]

Way too early to make a call on Elam.

I mean, everyone gave up on Epenesa, but he's finally (yr4?) playing like we all hoped he would

Elam doesn't fit the 'win now' timeline. Surtain does. He's an easy player to trade, imo. Even if he does blossom down the road.

[daryls61]

Wonder if Trey White Goalie Academy would move to Safety next year? Safeties would be Rapp and White with Benford, Elam, Jackson and Ingram as corners.

[Canadian'eh!]

I don't think so.

You can sweeten the pot a little, but like the piece says, Denver is going nowhere this year, probably next.

They may even be looking to draft a quarterback.

I think you are conflating “could trade a guy to help rebuild” with “desperate to get rid of him”.

Denver most likely says “No. even if we rebuild, we will keep our elite 23yo corner”

And even IF they decided to trade him as part of a rebuild, you don’t think other teams would offer FAR more than that? I assure you they would.

that offer would be immediately dismissed and probably taken as an insult.

[Canadian'eh!]

Way too early to make a call on Elam.

I mean, everyone gave up on Epenesa, but he's finally (yr4?) playing like we all hoped he would

I disagree. He’s currently a 1st round pick who couldn’t even get dressed on game day in year 2. He’s not a quarterback who needs 2+ years to develop. Being a healthy inactive already shows he’s really not up to his draft status.

Surtain is 23 and elite talent. No comparison.

[Canadian'eh!]

No, Elam is NOT a “bust”. Not even close.

The Bills are blessed with Benford coming on quickly. Just because a 6th round like has over performed does not mean that Elam is a bust.

In fact, Elam was playing extremely well at the end of last season.

He has all the markings of a total bust. I don’t trust your talent evaluation, it’s historically VERY lacking

[notacon]

He has all the markings of a total bust. I don’t trust your talent evaluation, it’s historically VERY lacking

Actually it is the opposite. I don’t trust your talent evaluation as it’s been VERY lacking historically and totally opposite of so many NFL professionals.

[YardRat]

Gee, I wonder where that idea came from....

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263931-Where-can-we-find-a-CB

[Woodman]

2 seconds 2024 and 26.

[OpIv37]

Way too early to make a call on Elam.

I mean, everyone gave up on Epenesa, but he's finally (yr4?) playing like we all hoped he would

Here’s the thing though: we know we have a good team now. Say Elam goes the Epenesa route and takes 4 years to come into his own. That means he’ll be good in 2025. Who knows what our roster will be like in 2 years?

I’d rather have a proven commodity than hope Elam develops. Of course, it’s not that simple because of the compensation we’d have to give up. I’m just saying that if we want to win now, waiting on Elam isn’t the best play.

[Woodman]

We'll keep Elam for now.

[DraftBoy]

I disagree. He’s currently a 1st round pick who couldn’t even get dressed on game day in year 2. He’s not a quarterback who needs 2+ years to develop. Being a healthy inactive already shows he’s really not up to his draft status.

Surtain is 23 and elite talent. No comparison.

And where does the blame go for drafting a man to man CB into an almost exclusively zone system?

[Forward_Lateral]

And where does the blame go for drafting a man to man CB into an almost exclusively zone system?

Jesus. Bingo.

Why did they draft an OLB to play ILB, and then draft his replacement, who is also an OLB?

Beane has made some great picks, and done some great things, but he's also made some really questionable picks, especially in the first 2 rounds.

[sahlensguy]

Jesus. Bingo.

Why did they draft an OLB to play ILB, and then draft his replacement, who is also an OLB?

Beane has made some great picks, and done some great things, but he's also made some really questionable picks, especially in the first 2 rounds.

McD must have had a plan for Elam though. He must just suck, imo. The red flag that I saw in his tape was that he was very 'handsy' in his coverage. Like he would be getting flagged for it all over in the NFL. Maybe it hid a deficiency on his ability that just isn't translating at this level. Idk though. The draft pick is on both Beane and McD. And McD knew what he wanted to do with a man to man cb. He also took angles to the ball that reminded me of Edmunds, if I remember correctly.

[DraftBoy]

McD must have had a plan for Elam though. He must just suck, imo. The red flag that I saw in his tape was that he was very 'handsy' in his coverage. Like he would be getting flagged for it all over in the NFL. Maybe it hid a deficiency on his ability that just isn't translating at this level. Idk though. The draft pick is on both Beane and McD. And McD knew what he wanted to do with a man to man cb. He also took angles to the ball that reminded me of Edmunds, if I remember correctly.

Elam was handsy in college because he’s a bump and run man coverage CB. His technique needed some work, but it wasn’t anything that should hold him off the field.

The thought was that Elam has athleticism and was a willing tackler so in a zone scheme he should be able to read passes and react on the ball before or after it’s thrown. The issue is that the zone coverage and understanding responsibility of guys coming into and out of your zone is a big shift mentally from just knowing you got this one guy no matter where he goes. You’ve trained yourself to focus on that one on one mentality so when a team runs a combo route on you in zone coverage you can either be a little slow to react or have the wrong reaction and blow a coverage entirely.

I just don’t get why they want to force a round peg into a square hole with that selection.

[sahlensguy]

Elam was handsy in college because he’s a bump and run man coverage CB. His technique needed some work, but it wasn’t anything that should hold him off the field.

The thought was that Elam has athleticism and was a willing tackler so in a zone scheme he should be able to read passes and react on the ball before or after it’s thrown. The issue is that the zone coverage and understanding responsibility of guys coming into and out of your zone is a big shift mentally from just knowing you got this one guy no matter where he goes. You’ve trained yourself to focus on that one on one mentality so when a team runs a combo route on you in zone coverage you can either be a little slow to react or have the wrong reaction and blow a coverage entirely.

I just don’t get why they want to force a round peg into a square hole with that selection.

The handsy part that I remember was when the ball came to the receiver. Elam was on them like a cheap coat. His angles looked off to me as well. Maybe it's an anticipation/instinct/vision issue, idk. I'm sure McDermott knew exactly what he wanted to do with Elam. He just can't do it though. And it's not an man cover guy switching to zone issue. McBeane just whiffed on evaluating Elam's ability as an NFL player. Because he might not be in an adequate man cover DB either.

[Canadian'eh!]

Actually it is the opposite. I don’t trust your talent evaluation as it’s been VERY lacking historically and totally opposite of so many NFL professionals.
I can find as many professionals that know Edmunds stinks. I just don’t need to waste hours of my time and write novels.

once again, time will prove you wrong in this.

[Canadian'eh!]

And where does the blame go for drafting a man to man CB into an almost exclusively zone system?
I don’t disagree with this at all. Maybe if he went to a team that played man, he’d be better off. My point is only he’s not cutting it on this team with this D.

[cas22]

I don’t disagree with this at all. Maybe if he went to a team that played man, he’d be better off. My point is only he’s not cutting it on this team with this D.

Eliam's problem is he is one of those players who doesn't practice good, him being a man to man coverage guy is being blown out of proportion, we played man to man at times against the Fins...

Eliams chance comes now. I believe he will shine...

[sahlensguy]

Eliam's problem is he is one of those players who doesn't practice good, him being a man to man coverage guy is being blown out of proportion, we played man to man at times against the Fins...

Eliams chance comes now. I believe he will shine...

I think he has the instincts of Edmunds and lacks the discipline to not hang all over the receiver. Those two strikes can go hand in hand. Hope I'm wrong of course. We'll see.

[notacon]

I can find as many professionals that know Edmunds stinks. I just don’t need to waste hours of my time and write novels.

once again, time will prove you wrong in this.

:rofl: No, you can’t. I have been asking for exactly that for YEARS and not one single credible link has ever been produced.

BUT, we DO know that actual NFL professionals have said exactly the OPPOSITE of the haters in 2020 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/29460392/ranking-nfl-top-10-linebackers-2020-best-hybrid-playmakers-d)….2021 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31765336/ranking-nfl-top-10-linebackers-2021-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks), 2022 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/34168579/ranking-nfl-top-10-ball-linebackers-2022-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-linebackers) AND 2023 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/37773470/ranking-nfl-top-10-ball-linebackers-2023-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-linebackers) with the highest ranking this year of #3

Give it up. NO NFL professional has EVER said that “Edmunds stinks”. You are wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong on this subject.


https://media.tenor.com/hv9sKiPlpooAAAAC/gif-shinobi-you-are-wrong.gif

[Mr. Pink]

Surtain would be a nice addition.

Elam is a bust here as he doesn't fit the zone coverage scheme we run, hence why he's now not even active. A change of scenery for him would do wonders for his career and future in this league.

Not sure what the price would be for Surtain nor not sure if we'd have the cap room for him

[Woodman]

Surtain would be a nice addition.

Elam is a bust here as he doesn't fit the zone coverage scheme we run, hence why he's now not even active. A change of scenery for him would do wonders for his career and future in this league.

Not sure what the price would be for Surtain nor not sure if we'd have the cap room for him
Does it help that he's still on his rookie contract?

[Mr. Pink]

Does it help that he's still on his rookie contract?

He has a 12m cap hit this year. And next year, his cap hit is 6 if he's on the Broncos or 6 in dead cap if he's not.

Don't see the Broncos moving him as it wouldn't make financial sense...unless they're bringing in a HUGE haul for him

[Woodman]

He has a 12m cap hit this year. And next year, his cap hit is 6 if he's on the Broncos or 6 in dead cap if he's not.

Don't see the Broncos moving him as it wouldn't make financial sense...unless they're bringing in a HUGE haul for him

I wonder what it would take to make it happen.

[yordad]

Sounds like a steeper than needed price.

[Woodman]

I'd go for just about anything draft comp wise.