My 1st round pick theory.

[Canadian'eh!]

I’ve been working on a theory for a while on 1st round pick strategy for a while. Basically it goes like this:

Theres only 5 things you should pick in round 1:
1. Quarterbacks
2. Edge Rushers
3. Left Tackles
4. Wide Recievers
5. Cornerbacks* (only if you play man to man)

Everything else you should never pick in round 1. If you don’t like or need any of those, you should trade down for more picks. There’s a FEW exceptions at times, but they should be very rare.

Elam and Kincaid even if they are good players eventually, we’re not worth the 1st rounder gambles. If you’re going to miss in a 1st, always miss on the biggest impact positions.

[Goobylal]

I don't disagree.

[Ingtar33]

i will disagree. you build your team inside out. IF, there is a first round worthy center, guard, or dtackle you definitely take him. same for DT, MLB or Safety. I would say RB is heavily devalued these days, but if there is someone truly special and you don't need anything else, then maybe, maybe you take a RB.

that said, your list of priority positions in round 1 isn't bad.

[Canadian'eh!]

i will disagree. you build your team inside out. IF, there is a first round worthy center, guard, or dtackle you definitely take him. same for DT, MLB or Safety. I would say RB is heavily devalued these days, but if there is someone truly special and you don't need anything else, then maybe, maybe you take a RB.

that said, your list of priority positions in round 1 isn't bad.
I agree to some exceptions. But disagree on all the positions you listed. You need those positions, yes. But 2nd or later picks, or FA is where to address them. Atlanta took a TE Pitts in the top 10 and have gotten zero value. Don’t miss on TE or S.

if Ed Reed is out there, maybe it’s an exception. But thing is, you better be SURE.

[OpIv37]

Id go QB, CB, LT, Edge… I’d stay away from skill positions in the 1st unless it’s a rare talent.

[cookie G]

Oh jesus.

What a call....he hit him in the back...and in fact, never took a step...Ridley ran into him.

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Oh jesus.

What a call....he hit him in the back...and in fact, never took a step...Ridley ran into him.

oops, wrong thread

[Forward_Lateral]

IMO there’s only 2 positions that are game changers. QB and edge rushers like Watt, Bosa, etc

[Mr. Pink]

IMO there’s only 2 positions that are game changers. QB and edge rushers like Watt, Bosa, etc

WR can be as well. But you have to be a special talent at that position to be a game changer and you need the QB who can get you the ball.

Tyreek Hill is a game changer.

[Woodman]

Oh jesus.

What a call....he hit him in the back...and in fact, never took a step...Ridley ran into him.

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oops, wrong thread

Did the same today myself. :cheers:

[Forward_Lateral]

WR can be as well. But you have to be a special talent at that position to be a game changer and you need the QB who can get you the ball.

Tyreek Hill is a game changer.

Fair

[Thurmal]

Any offensive lineman you feel is a sure thing is a good 1st round pick, particularly when you have an all-world QB.

Have we done that since picking Allen?

[YardRat]

WR can be as well. But you have to be a special talent at that position to be a game changer and you need the QB who can get you the ball.

Tyreek Hill is a game changer.

Tyreek Hill was a fifth rounder. As was Diggs.

[Mr. Pink]

Tyreek Hill was a fifth rounder. As was Diggs.

Very true.

But there are guys like AJ Green, OBJ, Calvin Johnson, Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Jamaar Chase...who were all game changers at one point or another in their careers. I'm only going back for like the past 20 years on these guys....

However, for every guy like those listed above, you have like 3 guys like Corey Coleman, complete bust, and a few like Sammy Watkins, serviceable.

But the same can be said for any position on the field when it comes to bust rate.

[TigerJ]

That might be OK for the top half of the first round, but when you get to the end of the round, you'd be limiting yourself to players who are the 6th or 7th best at their position. That's the simple math of it. Hmm. Do I want the 7th best offensive tackle or WR, or the best safety or linebacker?

[Woodman]

Id go QB, CB, LT, Edge… I’d stay away from skill positions in the 1st unless it’s a rare talent.

Usually with some exceptions of course.

[Woodman]

IMO there’s only 2 positions that are game changers. QB and edge rushers like Watt, Bosa, etc
They both can ruin a game.

[Woodman]

WR can be as well. But you have to be a special talent at that position to be a game changer and you need the QB who can get you the ball.

Tyreek Hill is a game changer.

He's one of about 5.

[Woodman]

Any offensive lineman you feel is a sure thing is a good 1st round pick, particularly when you have an all-world QB.

Have we done that since picking Allen?

Huge huge value!

[Woodman]

Tyreek Hill was a fifth rounder. As was Diggs.

Brady was a 6th rounder ..... 199th overall I believe.

[Woodman]

Any truly great lockdown corners grabbed after the 4th round that anybody can recall?

[Woodman]

That might be OK for the top half of the first round, but when you get to the end of the round, you'd be limiting yourself to players who are the 6th or 7th best at their position. That's the simple math of it. Hmm. Do I want the 7th best offensive tackle or WR, or the best safety or linebacker?

I'd probably be happy with the 6th or 7th best OT or WR only when they are the best football player on the board .... the top safety's or linebackers would be a consideration of course if they were to fall.

Drafting late makes it a lot tougher there's no doubt about that.

Look at what the Chiefs got in the 7th round last year Isiah Pacheco for crying out loud.

[Albany,n.y.]

When you are drafting late in the 1st round you take the best player available at a position where he will compete for a starting job. Obviously the Bills should not be drafting a 1st round QB because you're drafting a backup. Let's take a look at 2022. If the Bills had to do it all over again, Breese Hall makes a lot more sense than Elam, and then they would have taken a different position in round 2 instead of Cook. There were plenty of us who wanted Hall knowing he wouldn't be available when the Bills picked in the 2nd. Because you're drafting near the bottom of the 1st, you have to consider who will or won't be there for you near the bottom of the 2nd. There should be no restrictions by position of any player the Bills would be drafting.