ESPN Playoff Matchup Simulator

[Mr. Pink]

Fun to play around with to see how things can shake out in the final 4 weeks.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

In some not out of the realm of possibilities outcomes, there is a chance that the Bills can completely eliminate the Dolphins from the playoffs in week 18, let alone just winning a division title.

Miami losing their last 3 games is a distinct possibility, finishing with Cowboys, Ravens, and us. To be honest, this Cowboy game could be completely meaningless for us if we win our last 3 and the Fish lose their last 3.

[YardRat]

Re: ESPN Playoff Matchup Simulator

Miami missing the playoffs completely would be epic.

[Forward_Lateral]

Re: ESPN Playoff Matchup Simulator

I fiddled with it for a few min.

So, if they lose to Dallas, but win out, they'd need help, but it would still be about a 75% chance, IMO. Things like KC beating the Bengals, etc. I didn't go through and pick many, if any at all, upsets. And originally had the Bengals beating the Chiefs, but then thought WTF am I thinking.

[Ed]

Re: ESPN Playoff Matchup Simulator

I've been messing around with this for the past couple weeks and there's still so many scenarios.

It's still technically possible for the Bills to finish with the #1 seed. It would require the Ravens losing out and other unlikely losses, but thought it was interesting that's still in play.

There's still scenarios where the Bills win out and miss the playoffs, but would require multiple other teams winning out too.

There are some annoying scenarios too like the Bills finishing in a 3 way tie that includes the Chiefs, but the Chiefs still get the higher seed.

One of my favorite scenarios is where we beat the Fins in the last week to win the division and then we host them again the following week for the WC. Not that that would be my first choice, but the thought of going to Miami to steal the division in the last week and then knock them out of the playoffs the following week would be pretty epic.

Anyway, it's definitely fun to play around with.

[notacon]

Re: ESPN Playoff Matchup Simulator

What's really cool is the NY Times "Playoff simulator" that uses (up to) 320,000 simulations to determine percentage of likelihood of not only making the playoffs, but probability of bye week, host a WC game, Wild card or out of playoffs.


The percentage chance to make playoffs is re-calculated with every pick made for every team.

Right now the Bills "chance to make playoffs" is 49%.

If they beat the Cowboys (with no other games picked) the % goes up to 66%.