Bills Patriots opening line 11.5

[Woodman]

For the gamblers out there.

[Skooby]

For the gamblers out there.
Yeah, Bills at home = Winning.

[Novacane]

I learned my lesson last week. No comment.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Ugh

i HATE being heavy favorite


that said, this is the first heavy favorite game I’m completely confident in

[OpIv37]

Just like last week, take the Pats to cover. It’s been different without Brady but BB has *****-slapped us most of his career. It’s likely his last time in Buffalo and he’s not going down without a fight. And, the Bills once again proved that they play down to the level of competition.

[sukie]

Just like last week, take the Pats to cover. It’s been different without Brady but BB has *****-slapped us most of his career. It’s likely his last time in Buffalo and he’s not going down without a fight. And, the Bills once again proved that they play down to the level of competition.

Isn’t it possible teams play up a level? I mean underdogs and reading “not a chance” and playing for an interim… that might have leveled them up to cause 3 fumbles in what was gearing up to be a blowout?

[Goobylal]

They don't deserve another double-digit line. Now I can see them winning by that much, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Goobylal]

Isn’t it possible teams play up a level? I mean underdogs and reading “not a chance” and playing for an interim… that might have leveled them up to cause 3 fumbles in what was gearing up to be a blowout?

It was a perfect storm. The Bills coming off a big win, the Chargers coming off a big loss and firing their moron HC who the players quit on, a long week for the Chargers and a short week for the Bills which included flying across country and 4 turnovers leading to 13 points.

[imbondz]

Nothing is guaranteed or safe this year. Can’t overlook the Pats. They’re a weird team and Belicheat always can figure out a way to expose our weaknesses. Crush them tho and go into the Miami game with confidence.

[Goobylal]

Nothing is guaranteed or safe this year. Can’t overlook the Pats. They’re a weird team and Belicheat always can figure out a way to expose our weaknesses. Crush them tho and go into the Miami game with confidence.

I'll be glad when he's gone next year. They're not even close to being as formidable without him.

[Woodman]

I'll be glad when he's gone next year. They're not even close to being as formidable without him.
They are definitely under inflated.

[Woodman]

For the gamblers the line is now 12pts.

[BillsOwnAll]

Just like last week, take the Pats to cover. It’s been different without Brady but BB has *****-slapped us most of his career. It’s likely his last time in Buffalo and he’s not going down without a fight. And, the Bills once again proved that they play down to the level of competition.

You’ll find the best in every team but Buffalo.

If you were a pats fan you would said “there’s no chance the pats beat the bills stop talking about it”

You’re schtick is tiring

[OpIv37]

You’ll find the best in every team but Buffalo.

If you were a pats fan you would said “there’s no chance the pats beat the bills stop talking about it”

You’re schtick is tiring
It’s not about me. The Bills always find bad outcomes. Stop blaming me and start blaming these responsible.

[OpIv37]

Isn’t it possible teams play up a level? I mean underdogs and reading “not a chance” and playing for an interim… that might have leveled them up to cause 3 fumbles in what was gearing up to be a blowout?

No it’s not possible. Talent has a ceiling. Bad teams aren’t capable of playing beyond their talent level because that would require talent that simply doesn’t exist. Good teams can fail to live up to their talent level, as the Bills so often do.

[Historian]

Bills 27, Pats 14.

[sukie]

Always find bad outcomes. Key word “Always”. Was Saturday’s game a bad outcome?
9 times this year so far… non bad outcomes.
13 times last season… un bad outcomes
Where is the always part ? (Looking under chair)

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Well the bills lost on October 22, so there’s no chance

[sukie]

Well the bills lost on October 22, so there’s no chance
Oh crap. Forgot.

BTW you really in Muncie?

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Oh crap. Forgot.

BTW you really in Muncie?
i am, yes.

[notacon]

11.5 spread is generous but not unrealistic.

This is a division game with a LOT on the line (for the Bills).

NO ONE (with a shred of honesty and football acumen) would be surprised one bit if the Bills beat the Pats like they did in the last playoff game they faced each other.

[TigerJ]

I don't do sports betting so I don't really care about the spread. I think the Bills win. If they play with focus and don't make a bunch of stupid mistakes as in the Chargers game, they cover easily. If they do make a bunch of mistakes, they don't cover. It's really just as simple as that.

[sukie]

i am, yes.

Visited there a couple of times… well. Close. Father in law lived in Cicero.

nice area.

(Last time was 2000 New Year’s Eve. We had Square pizza from Pizza King.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Visited there a couple of times… well. Close. Father in law lived in Cicero.

nice area.

(Last time was 2000 New Year’s Eve. We had Square pizza from Pizza King.

pizza king is overrated and overpriced. i've lived here for 10 years now

[Woodman]

For those that pay attention he are still 12pt.favorites .... it appears settled.

[cas22]

I'll be glad when he's gone next year. They're not even close to being as formidable without him.

be carful what you wish for,,, the Pats can only get better and the hoody might end up somewhere where it could come into play down the road..

[Woodman]

Spoke too soon it's now 12.5.

[notacon]

i am, yes.

Munchie, Indiana???

[notacon]

It’s not about me. The Bills always find bad outcomes. Stop blaming me and start blaming these responsible.

Oh please. You are so lacking in self awareness and recognizing reality.

Like this **** before the Miami game....yeah....the one the Bills rolled over and beat the everlasting crap out of the FIns by four ****ing TDs. Is THAT "find(ing) a bad outcome"?!?!?!


Oh I love the Bills but I can’t and won’t be a homer. That being said, while I can be biased, I’m also a realist. I’ll believe this team can do it if and only if they prove it.

I responded to your quitter crap by stating REAL "REALITY"....


Jesus. Talk about TOTALLY lacking in self awareness. Your posts do NOT show someone who “love(s) the Bills”. Not in this solar system of reality anyway.

The ability to recognize that the Bills have been and are one of the best teams in the NFL is NOT, in ANY way, shape or form of being a “homer”

A ”homer” is one who ignores all reality and overinflates the quality of a team in a delusional manner. We saw a lot of that during the drought.

What you are doing is the TOTAL OPPOSITE.

You are GROSSLY UNDER INFLATING and unrealistically CRAPPING on a Bills team that is, yes, one of the best teams in the NFL.

You start from a NEGATIVE place and build on that fantasy land delusion with more and more stupid cynical baloney.

No ONE VALUES what this team has to “prove” to YOU!!!! That tired hubris has been shown to be one of the grossly hypocritical double standards you employ mostly against the Bills.

When you said (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263893-Fins-Week%E2%80%A6-early-thoughts?p=5044667&viewfull=1#post5044667)….

“This is gonna be ugly. I don’t see how we keep up with them.”….” With the way Miami is playing, one win could cost us the Div.”

Or when you use the ‘I’ll believe the Bills can beat (fill in the blank….like I’m sure you said about them having to "prove” they could beat Miami)…you have it 100% BACKWARDS.

As I pointed (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263893-Fins-Week%E2%80%A6-early-thoughts?p=5044793&viewfull=1#post5044793) out the REALITY that it was MIAMI that had to “prove” they could beat the Bills.

If one looks at the facts (as I detailed), (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263928-Dolphins-Bills-GDT-!!?p=5045496&viewfull=1#post5045496) (and NOT with “homer” glasses) of how much a Fin killer Josh has been, only an idiot would NOT say that MIAMI has to “prove” they could stop Josh Allen and beat the Bills.



Josh Allen has never lost to Miami in Buffalo. Miami has never been able to slow him down much less stop him.

Here are Josh’s stats vs Miami....


<tbody>


C
A
%
Yrds
TD
INT
Rush
Yrds
Avg
TD


Wild Card 2022 @Bills
Bills 34-31
23
39
59%
352
3
2
4
20
5.0
0


Week 15 2022 @Bills
Bills 32-29
25
40
63%
304
4
0
10
77
7.7
0


Week 4 2022 @Fins
Miami 21-19
42
63
67%
400
2
0
8
47
5.9
0


Week 8 2021 @Bills
Bills 26-11
29
42
69%
249
2
0
8
55
6.9
1


Week 2 2021 @Fins
Bills 35-0
17
33
52%
179
2
1
5
35
7.0
0


Week 17 2020 @Bills
Bills 56-26
18
25
72%
224
3
1
2
3
1.5
0


Week 2 2020 @Fins
Bills 31-28
24
35
69%
417
4
0
4
18
4.5
0


Week 11 2019 @Fins
Bills 37-20
21
33
64%
256
3
0
7
56
8.0
1


Week 7 2019 @Bills
Bills 31-21
16
26
62%
202
2
0
4
32
8.0
0


Week 17 2018 @Bills
Bills 42-17
17
26
65%
224
3
1
9
95
10.6
2


Week 13 2018 @Fins
Miami 21-17
18
33
55%
231
2
2
9
135
15.0
0



9-2
250
395
63%
3038
30
7
70
573
8.2
4

</tbody>

Taking one of Opi’s lines....I’ll believe Miami can beat the Bills in Buffalo when they show they can do it.

Bills - 34
Fins - 31


They did not prove they could beat the Bills in Buffalo.

One of the most enjoyable parts of the broadcast yesterday, was when Jim Nance and Tony Romo talked about what YOU said before the season even began (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/263749-Jets-Week?p=5040036&viewfull=1#post5040036)….

“I think this year is going to be a setback, and the cap is a mess next year so it looms like a rebuild rather than some quick fixes. The window isn’t closing. It’s already slammed shut.”

They literally LAUGHED OUT LOUD and mercilessly mocked anyone that said this kind of crap that the Bills' SB window is closing. They were talking DIRECTLY TO and ABOUT YOU Opi.

You took it one further and have already QUIT ON THE BILLS by saying “It’s already slammed shut”

Please. Just. Stop. It.

Your constant, irritating, insufferable crapping on the Bills is not a sign of NOT being a “homer”…it’s a sure sign of a delusional NON-FAN of a team who talks more like a “fan” of the team who are our enemies!!!!

Gee...I was being conservative (and realistic) when I low-balled how badly the Bills would beat the Fins.


Or these brilliant (NOT!!!) quitter crap before the Dallas game....yeah....the one where the Bills beat the everlasting crap out of THEM too, by THREE ****ing TD's....Is THAT "find(ing) a bad outcome"?!?!?!


Did anyone actually watch Dallas? They’re gonna smoke us.


What I said doesn’t change how well Dallas is playing.


Did you see th Bills choke against the Eagles? What about the losses to the Jets, Jags, Broncos, Patriots and Bengals? Barely beating the hapless Giants? The Bills play bad games as often as they play good ones. Dallas is not without flaws but they are more consistent.


A lot of people here seem way too confident about beating the Cowboys.

Their O is clicking and, despite winning the game against KC, our banged-up D has been a liability (look at the Philly game).

I was able to attend the Jets game in Dallas earlier this year. Parsons was a wrecking ball. He’s going to have Josh running for his life all game.


They’ve blown it so many times. I’ll believe they can do it if and only if they prove it.

And **** you for using the Simpsons against me.

Winning Sunday is nit happening. Too many people on this board are dismissing Dallas for no reason. Dax is going to shred this D.


Lmao. They’re (Dallas) objectively better in almost every measurable category, yet so many here are acting like this os an easy win.


Dax is #1 in QBR. Bills are 27th in opposing QB QBR. And now we have even more defenders out.

A Bills blowout is not a realistic outcome. The only way the Bills win this game is a shootout where our O is perfect.

So, it makes no sense to say that a team that has more wins than us and is statistically better than us in almost every category will beat us? This post is an idiot.


This is exactly the overconfidence I’m talking about. It dismisses the Cowboys’ record while ignoring how they lead the league in offensive categories where our D struggles, and how banged up our D is.

Dallas will put up points. That is a given. It’s just a matter if our O can keep up, which usually means turnover time for Josh.


This history makes THIS prediction totally NOT CREDIBLE. (Not that I am saying it's a "sure thing" but there is an excellent chance the Bills DO win the AFCE while your quitter mindset cannot even comprehend the reality that it is VERY possible if not probable (considering Baltimore's domination lately and them playing at home, and the Bills and Josh Allen's domination of the Fins)


Too late to think about the Div. Wild card is still a possibility.
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[Chet]

Bills will win but I wouldn’t bet one red cent on them to cover. No, we’ll have to sweat this one out to the end too.

[Bill Cody]

12.5 is a lot of points in a divisional game, not that I bet on games

[Cntrygal]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patriots?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Patriots</a> are placing starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson on Injured Reserve, ending his season.</p>&mdash; Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) <a href="https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1740129785999982695?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Woodman]

12.5 is a lot of points in a divisional game, not that I bet on games

and now 13pts.

[Woodman]

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Huge loss not to have his services ...... punishing runner.<iframe scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/widget_iframe.2f70fb173b9000da126c79afe2098f02.html?origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.billszone.com" title="Twitter settings iframe" style="display: none;"></iframe><iframe id="rufous-sandbox" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" style="position: absolute; visibility: hidden; display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px; padding: 0px; border: none;" title="Twitter analytics iframe"></iframe>

[Typ0]

Can see a lot of this game playing close ... and the Bills could just have too much for them in the end and win by two TDs but they have proven they can blow it too.

- - - Updated - - -

I would take the PATS and the points.

[Ginger Vitis]

It’s not about me. The Bills always find bad outcomes.

How does a team that has won 72% of the regular season games the last 4 years "always find bad outcomes " lol you're worse than Donald Trump.. lies..living in your own reality.. grossly exaggerating

[YardRat]

How does a team that has won 72% of the regular season games the last 4 years "always find bad outcomes " lol you're worse than Donald Trump.. lies..living in your own reality.. grossly exaggerating

They have never won a Super Bowl, and haven't played for one in over thirty years. Every single season in the SB era has ended in a loss, or lack of even making the playoffs. That is literally always finding a bad outcome.

[Bill Cody]

They have never won a Super Bowl, and haven't played for one in over thirty years. Every single season in the SB era has ended in a loss, or lack of even making the playoffs. That is literally always finding a bad outcome.

Winning a SB is hard. But the 30 year thing is kind of a red herring. I would look at it as before Josh and after Josh. Before we had no chance so there was really nothing to talk about in terms of outcomes, we simply weren't a factor. Now we're a factor and there's no debating it. 13 seconds still stings but it's not something to build a "bad outcome thesis" over.

How about this idea? Let's enjoy a terrifically entertaining team while it's here and put away the straw men and the whining? A championship is on the horizon. Why? Because Josh is too good not to get at least one.

[Woodman]

Can see a lot of this game playing close ... and the Bills could just have too much for them in the end and win by two TDs but they have proven they can blow it too.

- - - Updated - - -

I would take the PATS and the points.

And now it's 13.5 pts.

[notacon]

I could care less how many points the Bills beat the Pats by. Just get the win by any means necessary.

Only degenerate gamblers obsess over the spread.

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[sukie]

Patriots are like second vs the run. They generally line up 5 on the line filling gaps with LBs. This is where passing game to Cook works and play action with getting Kincaid going.

im not a point spread stickler either. It’s a degenerate bribe to bet on the underdog.

Bills just need to win. I will prolly strain my neck watching Bills and Fins game. Why Fins at Ravens is 1 pm is silly.

[Skooby]

The Bills aren’t overlooking this team, they will be watching the scoreboard though.

[Woodman]

The Bills aren’t overlooking this team, they will be watching the scoreboard though.
I hope they just concentrate on this game.

We need it to get in.

But I'm sure they'll occasionally want to take a look.

[Chet]

I’m going to bet with my heart and start Josh Allen in the wind and rain over Dak Prescott home in a prime time spot against a good team in Dallas. A spot where Dak usually kills.In both my fantasy leagues I’m in the SuperBowl and in one of them my only difficult choice is Josh vs Dak. In the other it’s Hurts vs. Dak.

Going all in on Josh

[Ed]

The line has now moved to 14.

[Novacane]

I’m going to bet with my heart and start Josh Allen in the wind and rain over Dak Prescott home in a prime time spot against a good team in Dallas. A spot where Dak usually kills.In both my fantasy leagues I’m in the SuperBowl and in one of them my only difficult choice is Josh vs Dak. In the other it’s Hurts vs. Dak.

Going all in on Josh


Don't do it! If it's a close game it will be because the offense is struggling. If the Bills have a comfortable lead they'll be running the ball all of the 2nd half. Dallas/Detroit should be a shoot out.

[sukie]

Patriots good against the run. Swing and screen passes will be needed. If Bills try to run it will be 3 and outs

[Woodman]

Injury update:

Safety Jabrill Peppers won’t be in the Patriots secondary in Buffalo on Sunday.

Peppers has been downgraded to out with the hamstring injury that also kept him from playing in Week 16. He missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday before returning on Friday and earning a questionable tag.

Wide receiver Kayshon Boutte has also been ruled out for the game against the Bills. Boutte is dealing with an illness.


Patriots rule out Jabrill Peppers, Kayshon Boutte - NBC Sports (https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/patriots-rule-out-jabrill-peppers-kayshon-boutte)

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

No it’s not possible. Talent has a ceiling. Bad teams aren’t capable of playing beyond their talent level because that would require talent that simply doesn’t exist. Good teams can fail to live up to their talent level, as the Bills so often do.

What a bunch of digested hay

[Woodman]

now favored by 14.5 points.

[Discotrish]

If we lose today we're SURE to win next week.

[Discotrish]

I’m going to bet with my heart and start Josh Allen in the wind and rain over Dak Prescott home in a prime time spot against a good team in Dallas. A spot where Dak usually kills.In both my fantasy leagues I’m in the SuperBowl and in one of them my only difficult choice is Josh vs Dak. In the other it’s Hurts vs. Dak.

Going all in on Josh

How small is this league that you have both Josh and Dak?

I'm in the Superbowl in my league too.

[Klaista2k]

The Bills are horrible when it comes to covering the spread.

I honestly don't know who would ever bet on them to cover. Lol

[Chet]

How small is this league that you have both Josh and Dak?

I'm in the Superbowl in my league too.

Typical 12 team league. I sat Dak but the point differential between them ended up being only 5. I lost by 9 but I blame Mostert and Cooper for not playing through their little booboos.

[Discotrish]

Typical 12 team league. I sat Dak but the point differential between them ended up being only 5. I lost by 9 but I blame Mostert and Cooper for not playing through their little booboos.

Oh yeah, Mostert was SOLID for me all year! I was against Lamar and CeeDee Lamb yesterday, so I lost too.

[notacon]

Once again, NFL football shows that gambling on something as stupid as a point spread is idiotic.

The Bills could have easily covered the 11.5 point spread on the last drive of the game, but the goal for the Bills is to WIN THE ****ING GAME and not the point spread.

The smart situational football decision was to NOT score and just hold the ball for the final FIVE MINUTES until the end of the game.

Well done Buffalo Bills!!!! :bf1: