Mel Kiper Jr.

[Woodman]

There are a number of directions that the Bills could go in the first round of the draft, but ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. zeroed in on one position after watching Buffalo’s loss to Kansas City.

In his first mock draft of the season, Kiper had Buffalo selecting Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the No. 28 overall pick.

Here is what Kiper wrote on the selection.

I made a late change with this pick after I watched Josh Allen average 4.8 yards per attempt in the home loss to the Chiefs. His receivers struggled to get open and didn’t make enough plays after the catch once they did. Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a 100-yard game since mid-October, and Gabe Davis is now a free agent. General manager Brandon Beane can find a useful pass-catcher here.

The 6-foot-4 Mitchell broke out after transferring from Georgia, catching 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 scores for the Longhorns in 2023. He thrived on crossing routes, using his size and quickness to get separation from defenders. He has great hands. The position I almost went with? Nose tackle, because T’Vondre Sweat (Texas) could be a great fit in the middle of the Buffalo defense.



Mel Kiper Jr. changes Buffalo Bills’ first round pick following loss to Chiefs in mock draft 1.0 - newyorkupstate.com

[Mad Max]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

There are a number of directions that the Bills could go in the first round of the draft, but ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. zeroed in on one position after watching Buffalo’s loss to Kansas City.

In his first mock draft of the season, Kiper had Buffalo selecting Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the No. 28 overall pick.

Here is what Kiper wrote on the selection.

I made a late change with this pick after I watched Josh Allen average 4.8 yards per attempt in the home loss to the Chiefs. His receivers struggled to get open and didn’t make enough plays after the catch once they did. Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a 100-yard game since mid-October, and Gabe Davis is now a free agent. General manager Brandon Beane can find a useful pass-catcher here.

The 6-foot-4 Mitchell broke out after transferring from Georgia, catching 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 scores for the Longhorns in 2023. He thrived on crossing routes, using his size and quickness to get separation from defenders. He has great hands. The position I almost went with? Nose tackle, because T’Vondre Sweat (Texas) could be a great fit in the middle of the Buffalo defense.



Mel Kiper Jr. changes Buffalo Bills’ first round pick following loss to Chiefs in mock draft 1.0 - newyorkupstate.com

Mel has us picking a WR? Shocker.

[Woodman]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Mel has us picking a WR? Shocker.

We need one!

[daryls61]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Who the hel lis Mel Kiper. This is a guy who never put on a jockstrap in his life.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

If Mitchell runs well and interviews well, he'll be gone by 28.

[Forward_Lateral]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Kiper is a blowhard

[Ingtar33]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Kiper is a clown. But even a broken clock is right 2 times a day. I would put WR no.1, 2, and 3 on our top 3 list of needs.

[Woodman]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Kiper is a clown. But even a broken clock is right 2 times a day. I would put WR no.1, 2, and 3 on our top 3 list of needs.

We will draft at least 2 IMVHO.

UNLESS we get a player such as Tee Higgins in free agency then we'll draft just one.

We need Safety and Center unless Bates takes the Center spot.

Gotta draft defense with at least 5 maybe 6 picks.

We have 9 picks currently with a comp pick to come which makes it 10.

[notacon]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Mel Kiper may be a "blowhard" and a "clown" but he's been one of the best draft experts for years.

After a google search I found this....from someone who actually took the time to rationality and objectively quantify the accuracy of several of the best known draft "experts" and he surprised himself when the data showed his own bias against Kiper to be unfounded.


Which Analysts Are Best At Predicting NFL Draft Outcomes?
Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction

Read it all if you like, it has a lot of charts and details….here is the conclusion he offered up…

Conclusion and Apology to Mel Kiper


There you have it folks. Mel Kiper is the best overall performer at predicting draft outcomes of the analysts I tested. Most remarkably, Kiper is on an even footing with NFL front offices at identifying the best players in the draft. Lance Zierlein is a close second.

I have said a lot of unflattering things about Mel Kiper over the years. I was not alone, either. For example, in the 1994 draft, when Kiper criticized the Colts for picking Marshall Faulk 2^nd overall, then trading out of the 5^th overall pick, instead of selecting QBs Trent Dilfer or Heath Shuler, Colts GM Bill Tobin had this to say:

Who the hell is Mel Kiper anyway? Here’s a guy that criticizes everybody, whoever they take. And my knowledge of him: he’s never ever put on a jock strap, he’s never been a coach, he’s never been a scout, he’s never been an administrator and all of a sudden he’s an expert.

That may all be true, and Tobin might have had a point about selecting a future Hall of Famer instead of the only QB to ever be released by his team after winning the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, it is time to acknowledge that we were wrong about Mel. Looking beyond a few famous bad calls, the man is actually very good at what he does. My results suggest that some NFL teams might even do better in the draft if they gave their scouting departments some time off and picked from his big board.

As for the other outlets I sampled, WalterFootball is the best at predicting draft order, no doubt because they are most in tune with the opinion of NFL front offices. However, they are not very good at picking which players will actually do well in the NFL.

Snip…

And last of all, PFF and CBS Sports are just complete trash.

Draft predictions are a tough business. It is virtually impossible to get more than a handful of 1st round picks (and even more rare as every round proceeds) matched up with a specific team.

What IS useful is the overall ranking of the value of various players.

[Typ0]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

He's really going out on a limb I see ...

[Mace]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Who the hel lis Mel Kiper. This is a guy who never put on a jockstrap in his life.

Oh, you can google him, he's a draft analyst of sorts.

Well groomed, good barbering, though nothing compared to Yardrat's incredible head of hair, imho.

They'll get a safety.

[Mad Max]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Oh, you can google him, he's a draft analyst of sorts.

Well groomed, good barbering, though nothing compared to Yardrat's incredible head of hair, imho.

They'll get a safety.

Hahaha. If it were Donahue or Whaley you’d be spot on and we’d get another stone handed DB in the first. Luckily Beane is smarter than your average Whale(y) there boo-boo.

[Mace]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Hahaha. If it were Donahue or Whaley you’d be spot on and we’d get another stone handed DB in the first. Luckily Beane is smarter than your average Whale(y) there boo-boo.

Just watch. Beane sees a deep draft, they use it later. Happened before if you paid attention since McBeane got here.

I give you your boo-hoo right back and you can feel free to remind me at the draft, but you won't because it won't happen, like the other times I said this before. I'm fine with being wrong, you can prove I was, bookmark it.

[Mad Max]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

Just watch. Beane sees a deep draft, they use it later. Happened before if you paid attention since McBeane got here.

I give you your boo-hoo right back and you can feel free to remind me at the draft, but you won't because it won't happen, like the other times I said this before. I'm fine with being wrong, you can prove I was, bookmark it.

I hope I’m right and won’t call you out if I am…FYI it’s Boo-BOO by the way not boo-hoo…as in yogi the bears little buddy

[Woodman]

Re: Mel Kiper Jr.

He's really going out on a limb I see ...

Always the gambler.