Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

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A week after the divisional round, Peter King (who is one of the best sports writers in the country) revisited the Bills loss to KC within his weekly (long) Monday column "FMIA" (Football Monday in America).

It is an astute analysis and is spot on.

Requiem for the Bills

Immediately after a titanic game is not the time to form permanent opinions on what you’ve just seen. I was at the Kansas City-Buffalo game last weekend and covered it from the winner’s angle. During the week, I had time to re-watch the game and consider it from Buffalo’s perspective, and I was left with one overriding question:

Why did the Bills—in the middle of their final, inexorable drive of the game—drastically change their offensive approach at the most critical moment of the season?

To refresh: Buffalo, down 27-24, got the ball back at their 20-, with 8:23 left in the game. The Bills, after a huge miss on a Josh Allen-to-Stefon Diggs bomb (Diggs missed a very catchable ball) on first down, settled into a patient, clock-eating drive, seemingly trying to either tie it or win it and leave KC with very little time left. On seven of the 15 plays on the drive with the clock moving, Allen snapped the ball with an average of 5.1 seconds remaining on the play clock. Efficient, methodical.

So, Buffalo advanced to the Kansas City 26-, at the two-minute warning. Second-and-9. Two timeouts left per team. And here’s where the line of demarcation came. The Bills had to know they were either:

• One first down away from moving closer for a Tyler Bass field-goal try inside the 35-yard line that could have tied the game and sent it to overtime;
• Or one first down away from scoring a touchdown with very little time left, and leaving KC needing a touchdown, likely on a long field, to win. It was vital, with how great Patrick Mahomes is down the stretch and in the clutch, to give him next-to-no time to do that.

The Bills had to know on any play that ended with the clock running, Kansas City would burn its second timeout, and then its third. So, the strategy for Buffalo was: under all circumstances, get a first down and keep the clock running. Allen—second-and-9, KC 26-, 2:00 left—surveyed the defense as he prepared to take the snap.

Second down: With a wide-open receiver running a crossing route at the KC 22- and an open receiver running an out-route at the 16-, Allen chose to try to hit Khalil Shakir in the back of the trafficky end zone. Overthrown.

Third down: Allen got chased out of the pocket to the right, and probably missed seeing two intermediate receivers shy of the first down to the left. He threw the ball away, deep.

Fourth down: Bass pushed a 44-yard field-goal attempt wide right. The Chiefs, never having to use one of their timeouts in the fourth quarter, won 27-24.

Allen, on this drive, had flipped and thrown and side-armed completions of 7, 4, 8, 10, 6 and 7 yards. And needing a first down here, he went gunslinger. I just don’t know why. Kurt Warner, one who would know, tried to explain it a few days after the game.

“Sometimes,” Warner said, “you talk yourself into a play and say, ‘I’m gonna make this play, and this is the throw that’ll send us to the championship game,’ instead of saying, ‘I’m gonna let the defense dictate where I throw the ball.’ As a quarterback, you have to have the ability to balance those things.”

I thought Warner put it best on Allen in this game, and Allen as a player. He said, “It’s impossible to play perfect games, and Josh played an incredible game—until the end. In the end, he took some chances that wouldn’t have been what I would have done. But he chose to make those throws, and if you choose those throws, you’ve got to make ‘em. That’s part of being great. Brady, Montana, Mahomes—they have careers of making the plays in the absolute crucial times of the game. Now they’re on the Mount Rushmore of NFL quarterbacks.”

Allen is just six years into his career. He’s got much of his NFL life in front of him. He’s a smart guy. He’s one of the most talented quarterbacks ever to play in the NFL. He’s going to have plenty of chances to go deep into the playoffs, and to win a Super Bowl. But this is a crucial lesson he must learn, or he may never hold the Lombardi Trophy.

I (along with others) have been observing the same reality. The decisions made by Josh (and possibly...we just don't know...Joe Brady) after the 2 min warning break were head scratchingly stupid.

I put 80%-90% of the blame on Josh because HE is handling the ball, and HE makes the final decision on what to do with it. His mindset should have been....run the clock...take what the defense gives you...FORCE KC TO USE THEIR TIMEOUTS.

Kurt Warner (who Peter King appropriately observes is "one who would know") tried to explain the mental part of the game in these moments.

Josh is (IMO) the greatest QB the Bills have ever had...he may have the most unique qualities of any QB in history and is certainly capable of winning multiple championships.....and I do not want ANY other QB for my team.

BUT, as I have said before "Josh Allen is THE reason the Bills are considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and Josh Allen will be THE reason they don’t even get there, much less win it."

He may not win a Lombardi until he learns these crucial mindset lessons.

[sahlensguy]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

When? Probably when he's broke.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

When? Probably when he's broke.

Sooooooo never?

[Typ0]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

Well McDermott would never sit his ass down when it was prudent and he would sit down a fly that landed on the ball for 8 weeks ....

Maybe he should manage him a little more as opposed to kiss his ass all the time.

[Ingtar33]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

i disagree with kurt on the 2nd down. I've watched that play a couple of times from various angles, and the reality is, it was a high-low read, meaning he was reading deep then short; he saw shakir, shakir was about as open as they come on a seam route, and he threw it. a pass he's completely countless times against countless teams including the chiefs. he get hit hard in the middle of his motion. I just can't blame him on that one.

the third down is a little muddier, he had 2 receivers about 3-5 yards short of the first down he could have thrown it to, but he wanted the first down, and while Kincade might have been able to get it, he would have had to run someone over to do it. I actually think what happened on that play was Allen didn't want a 3 yard comletion and drive ended, so he disregarded the underneath options, and then he had a miscommunication with diggs. diggs was covered on his initial route. but with how the coverage was shifting with his scramble, if diggs ran toward allen he was 100% open with a huge throwing lane, for an easy completion at the 5-10 for a first down, and allen's eyes clearly locked onto diggs. however instead of running at allen, diggs ran into the endzone which incidentally ran him right into coverage again. Once diggs did that allen looked for other options, and no one was open anymore. he didn't throw it deep into the endzone, he threw the ball away entirely. he didn't want to mess up the FG with a sack, or throw an INT, he was being safe and just tossed the ball away.

if he had any fault on that sequence it was probably not taking the checkdown to kincade. i know he blames himself for the 2nd down because had he stepped to the side he doesn't get hit by his OT, but i think that's just hindsight. just like diggs being open underneath is hindsight. the fault in my book was being a little greedy for the first down on 3rd.

[Oaf]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

First read on 2nd down was Kincaid, Ing. Very complete-able out route (watch the TV replay behind QB) for 10yds. Shakir may've been after that.

I agree with the total analysis from PK, but there's one omission. Good coaching comes into play and saves players from themselves. It's as much on McD and JB here to not reiterate the winning strategy during the 2min timeout, or to not do so effectively enough for JA.

[Typ0]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

Good coaching comes into play and saves players from themselves.

This is the issue we have ... and it stems from McDermott not being able to save himself from himself. He is far too hypocritically bias and can't put together good evidence to redirect his own bias. He constantly falls victim to it. His systems have it running through their veins.

Allen is like inside an impenetrable optimism zone with McDermott that other players do not have access to -- he can't manage Allen effectively.

[sahlensguy]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

When? Probably when he's broke.

Sooooooo never?

I mean, would you?

[Typ0]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

i disagree with kurt on the 2nd down. I've watched that play a couple of times from various angles, and the reality is, it was a high-low read, meaning he was reading deep then short; he saw shakir, shakir was about as open as they come on a seam route, and he threw it. a pass he's completely countless times against countless teams including the chiefs. he get hit hard in the middle of his motion. I just can't blame him on that one.

the third down is a little muddier, he had 2 receivers about 3-5 yards short of the first down he could have thrown it to, but he wanted the first down, and while Kincade might have been able to get it, he would have had to run someone over to do it. I actually think what happened on that play was Allen didn't want a 3 yard comletion and drive ended, so he disregarded the underneath options, and then he had a miscommunication with diggs. diggs was covered on his initial route. but with how the coverage was shifting with his scramble, if diggs ran toward allen he was 100% open with a huge throwing lane, for an easy completion at the 5-10 for a first down, and allen's eyes clearly locked onto diggs. however instead of running at allen, diggs ran into the endzone which incidentally ran him right into coverage again. Once diggs did that allen looked for other options, and no one was open anymore. he didn't throw it deep into the endzone, he threw the ball away entirely. he didn't want to mess up the FG with a sack, or throw an INT, he was being safe and just tossed the ball away.

if he had any fault on that sequence it was probably not taking the checkdown to kincade. i know he blames himself for the 2nd down because had he stepped to the side he doesn't get hit by his OT, but i think that's just hindsight. just like diggs being open underneath is hindsight. the fault in my book was being a little greedy for the first down on 3rd.

All the second guessing. How about they try and run the ball on 2nd or 3rd down. That is my question about the whole thing ... but I don't so much question the play calls or what happened on the field. We needed to score 7 points. Honestly, it sounds like that is where everyone was at ... but they screwed up when they settled for 3. That is where I start getting lost. So going for the end zone because you see 7 as tantamount to W that also means you aren't kicking that field goal. Because you are trading the 4 points off for not being able to manage the clock as well because you are putting that TD on the board and that is how you see it.

And when it comes into light the TD has to be your goal and Josh Allen is your Quarterback why isn't he running the football on one of those downs?

So the players could have executed differently and there could have been different results but I would say it was all a set up based in marginal coaching in some areas.

[sahlensguy]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

All the second guessing. How about they try and run the ball on 2nd or 3rd down. That is my question about the whole thing ... but I don't so much question the play calls or what happened on the field. We needed to score 7 points. Honestly, it sounds like that is where everyone was at ... but they screwed up when they settled for 3. That is where I start getting lost. So going for the end zone because you see 7 as tantamount to W that also means you aren't kicking that field goal. Because you are trading the 4 points off for not being able to manage the clock as well because you are putting that TD on the board and that is how you see it.

And when it comes into light the TD has to be your goal and Josh Allen is your Quarterback why isn't he running the football on one of those downs?

So the players could have executed differently and there could have been different results but I would say it was all a set up based in marginal coaching in some areas.

We didn't need to just score seven points. We needed a score seven points while burning as much clock as possible.

Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

[imbondz]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

Dude was wide open in the end zone. Josh missed the throw. Let’s say we do what King says and tie the game, then KC wins in OT. We would have been pissed Josh didn’t find the wide open receiver in the endzone. But yes I agree we should have done what King says. lol

[Thurmal]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

Hahaha, like a 10,000 word column where Allen is criticized for trying to throw to an open WR in the end zone, only to have his tackle pushed into him at the last second, and absolutely ZERO criticism for Lamar Jackson, who was abysmal yet again in the playoffs. They way those two are treated by the media couldn't be more unequal.

[Typ0]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

We didn't need to just score seven points. We needed a score seven points while burning as much clock as possible.

Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Well yeah in a perfect world you burn all the clock too. But that wasn't their strategy obviously when they weren't burning the clock.

You need the TD though no matter what you do to force Mahomes to get into the end zone which can help your defense a lot.

What good is a field goal other than you couldn't score a TD and the clock is about to run out? I mean, what good is a tie score with 90 seconds on the clock and giving the ball to Mahomes to run the clock out (like you are saying we should have done) and kick a game winning field-goal?

There just isn't sound thinking going on in these situations you can tell when you don't just listen to a bunch of spin and excuses and see **** doesn't add up.

[sahlensguy]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

Hahaha, like a 10,000 word column where Allen is criticized for trying to throw to an open WR in the end zone, only to have his tackle pushed into him at the last second, and absolutely ZERO criticism for Lamar Jackson, who was abysmal yet again in the playoffs. They way those two are treated by the media couldn't be more unequal.

It was a poorly written article. Ive seen better and more concise rants around here.

[sahlensguy]

Re: Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn??

Well yeah in a perfect world you burn all the clock too. But that wasn't their strategy obviously when they weren't burning the clock.

You need the TD though no matter what you do to force Mahomes to get into the end zone which can help your defense a lot.

What good is a field goal other than you couldn't score a TD and the clock is about to run out? I mean, what good is a tie score with 90 seconds on the clock and giving the ball to Mahomes to run the clock out (like you are saying we should have done) and kick a game winning field-goal?

There just isn't sound thinking going on in these situations you can tell when you don't just listen to a bunch of spin and excuses and see **** doesn't add up.

The strategy was illconceived on numerous levels. It wasn't good enough and they got what they deserved.