The most comprehansive Bills Cap discussion I heard so far - with a guy from spotrac

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I really like the suggestion on Von. Hope Von coorperates with the Bills.

And btw, I agree 100% with his take on Diggs'. Not touching it. He also mentioned something I've been saying for awhile: this would have been Diggs FA year had they not done the extension. Diggs may not be happy but he could've seen the end of it and worked extra hard this year to get the last big contract somewhere else.

Bottom line, the Bills are where the Chiefs were 2 years ago without a Lombardi trophy. The Chiefs got rid of Hill, got some draft capital, and drafted well enough to win last year with a chance to win another this year. I don't see the Bills have a different path and have no chance of getting the kind of windfall the Chiefs got from the Hill trade.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLKPJC5Yy1A

[Canadian'eh!]

33 minutes!?

gonna need a summary from someone.

[Ginger Vitis]

First of all... the $50 million over the cap floated by the media is misleading.. the bills just signed a boatload of players to future/reserve contracts so $41 million over is the more accurate number..

1) 6 or 7 ways you can go about the Von miller contract and none of them are good... best option.. Miller gets suspended

2) cutting poyer saves $5.5 million but a bad idea to cut him. safety position would be barren and need poyers expereince with hyde almost certainly not coming back

3) no way is Diggs is taking a pay cut.. dont ask diggs to take a pay cut..dont restructure diggs contract just leave it as it is.. diggs being cut or traded after the 2024 season saves the bills $ 5 million

4) cutting tredavious white is a no brainer.. saves the bills $ 6 million and a small possibility bring white back on a small contract

5) Gabe Davis could get a deal that averages $15 million a year and no way beane would pay him that.. The spotrac guy thinks teams like the bears and panthers could give Davis a deal that averages $15 million a year.


6) Rapp and David Edwards are good depths guys and would be good to have back but will be looking to get deals that average $ 4 million to $5 million a year...

7) Little and Espenesa are likely goners... Should be able to get Daquon jones back on a deal around $14 million for 2 years... Dane jackson..doesnt think their is a huge market for him thinks the bills can get jackson back on a deal that averages $4 million a year

8) Mitch morse...Dion Dawkins..Tauron Johnson... are very good possibilities to be extended that would free up lots of cap space in 2024

[Forward_Lateral]

I've said it numerous times in numerous threads.

Some fans are making the cap situation out to be far more of a problem then it is. They want something to complain about. They want something to gripe about. They want a reason to say the Bills will suck. It was the same conversations last off season, and they managed to fill the roster.

Let it play out

[Ginger Vitis]

7) Little and Espenesa are likely goners...

Floyd and Epenesa are likely goners... Getting back to Miller... Terrible decision to give him that contract... Spotrac guy used Jadaveon Clowney has a example of smart spending on the DE position... One year deal for $ 7 million and clowney gave the ravens 9.5 sacks... or how about Floyd..bills gave him $ 9million fora year and floyd had 10.5 sacks..

again back to miller... 1) hope he gets suspended would help a ton financially... 2) Miller has $11 million guaranteed for 2024..just pay him that in a bonus and spread it out over 5 years then process that post june 1 so where he is off the roster... will be a big dead cap hit for 2025 but saves money for the 2024 season

[jamze132]

I've said it numerous times in numerous threads.

Some fans are making the cap situation out to be far more of a problem then it is. They want something to complain about. They want something to gripe about. They want a reason to say the Bills will suck. It was the same conversations last off season, and they managed to fill the roster.

Let it play out

But it is a big problem because it doesn’t allow us to go after much proven talent. Thank God Beane has been drafting well and that will have to continue to be competitive in the top tier of the AFC.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I've said it numerous times in numerous threads.

Some fans are making the cap situation out to be far more of a problem then it is. They want something to complain about. They want something to gripe about. They want a reason to say the Bills will suck. It was the same conversations last off season, and they managed to fill the roster.

Let it play out

Add to Forward Lateral. It IS a problem somewhere down the line. Just WHEN. If you are looking for Championship now, you can push it down further. But it is NOT you can push it forever and thus the notion of no problem.

I believe Dallas and the Rams are example. It took them years to clean up and letting effective guys go. Floyd, Edwards, Rapp and the safety for Bengals are Rams example even for last year. But they gambled and got a superbowl. Dallas didn't when they tried a few years back.

I don't believe gambling in business. I believe good fundamental management. That's just me. That's why I don't advocate the "pushing all chips into the middle" approach. I believe you are likely win more than keep on gambling. Too many unpredictable variable like injury etc.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Floyd and Epenesa are likely goners... Getting back to Miller... Terrible decision to give him that contract... Spotrac guy used Jadaveon Clowney has a example of smart spending on the DE position... One year deal for $ 7 million and clowney gave the ravens 9.5 sacks... or how about Floyd..bills gave him $ 9million fora year and floyd had 10.5 sacks..

again back to miller... 1) hope he gets suspended would help a ton financially... 2) Miller has $11 million guaranteed for 2024..just pay him that in a bonus and spread it out over 5 years then process that post june 1 so where he is off the roster... will be a big dead cap hit for 2025 but saves money for the 2024 season

The best case for Miller in the discussion is to convert most of his money in 2024 to bonuses. and allow him to go FA in 2025. The selling point is that if he goes big in 2024, he can get another new deal in him and the Bills can walk away with minimum loss in cap. I don't know at his age Miller will go for that, even though Matt Parrino is saying that the Bills are doing Miller good by standing on his side when the violence issue came out etc. etc., basically the good will part. I don't get it about the paying him 11 million now and then cut him post June approach. That only makes sense if Miller is completely worthless --- you are paying him to not to play for you and then you have to find someone else who can play this year. And next year, you are incurring a huge cap hit. So in essence, you are going for it again this year while screwing next year. The irony is that now the Bills are left with one quality DE signed (Rousseau), and where can you find a quality DE to start opposite him who's going to cost next to nothing? And you think it is a better defense now you can go all in for it?

[Forward_Lateral]

Add to Forward Lateral. It IS a problem somewhere down the line. Just WHEN. If you are looking for Championship now, you can push it down further. But it is NOT you can push it forever and thus the notion of no problem.

I believe Dallas and the Rams are example. It took them years to clean up and letting effective guys go. Floyd, Edwards, Rapp and the safety for Bengals are Rams example even for last year. But they gambled and got a superbowl. Dallas didn't when they tried a few years back.

I don't believe gambling in business. I believe good fundamental management. That's just me. That's why I don't advocate the "pushing all chips into the middle" approach. I believe you are likely win more than keep on gambling. Too many unpredictable variable like injury etc.

There will be a major cap boom in the next 3-4 years, it's just a matter of when. They are in good shape down the road, just have to get creative this year

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Postpone your pain now only leads to bigger pain down the road. We are in this "buy a championship" mode the last 2 seasons. Didn't quite work out. Time to move to a different phase.

You need at least 2 generational players to win a superbowl. We got one Allen working on that. We tried to buy another one in Miller on his downside. At this time, I'd think focusing on the draft, getting some prospect generational players, getting younger. Who knows? If Beane hits a few in the draft, and we get some break on the injury front, it could be right there for us the 2024 season, just as the 2022 Chiefs demonstrated, in this ever unpredictable league (yes the Chiefs is a dynasty in term of championship, but they are not like the dominating teams of the past, like the Pats where every loss is a big upset).

I don't believe FAs in 2024 will get us to where we want to go.

[Forward_Lateral]

Postpone your pain now only leads to bigger pain down the road. We are in this "buy a championship" mode the last 2 seasons. Didn't quite work out. Time to move to a different phase.

You need at least 2 generational players to win a superbowl. We got one Allen working on that. We tried to buy another one in Miller on his downside. At this time, I'd think focusing on the draft, getting some prospect generational players, getting younger. Who knows? If Beane hits a few in the draft, and we get some break on the injury front, it could be right there for us the 2024 season, just as the 2022 Chiefs demonstrated, in this ever unpredictable league (yes the Chiefs is a dynasty in term of championship, but they are not like the dominating teams of the past, like the Pats where every loss is a big upset).

I don't believe FAs in 2024 will get us to where we want to go.
I honestly think the generational player will have to be drafted.

Kincaid may or may not be that guy, if he is, that would be a huge bonus, as TEs tend not to get paid nearly as astronomically as WRs.

I still believe they need to draft a WR this year, they can't afford to pass up one in this draft, IMO.

If, as in the other thread about Diggs, cutting or trading Diggs after June 1st provides as much cap relief as over the cap says, they have to seriously consider it.

[notacon]

The cap is a "problem" for every team, sooner or later.

There are a myriad of reasonable and sound ways for a skilled GM to deal with it....especially with a roster already a perennial contender, playoff team and division winner with an elite Top 3 QB like Josh Allen. And Brandon Beane has shown himself to be extremely skilled and an excellent GM.

Every team has a roster turnover of about 25% every year. 2024 will be no different. With the Bills enjoying 10 draft picks, and Beane's record of solid drafting there is little reason to doubt his ability.

I have not listened to the video presented yet. And I thank Ginger Vitis for writing a synopsis (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265042-The-most-comprehansive-Bills-Cap-discussion-I-heard-so-far-with-a-guy-from-spotrac?p=5081583&viewfull=1#post5081583).

Easily the highest quality beat writer following the Bills, Joe Buscaglia, wrote a detailed plan to "escape salary cap woes". I'm listing just the bullet points, if you want to read the text with detailed explanation after each one, pony up for a subscription to the best sports publication on the internet, The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/).

Buffalo Bills offseason: A 15-step plan to escape salary cap woes for 2024 and beyond (https://theathletic.com/5238669/2024/02/02/buffalo-bills-offseason-salary-cap/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983)



The Bills have 54 players under contract for the 2024 season, but because of all of their spending and pushing money forward, they have one of the most significant cap deficits in the NFL (https://theathletic.com/nfl/) this offseason. According to OverTheCap.com (https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills), which uses a 2024 base salary cap projection of $242 million, the Bills are currently $50.6 million over that limit.

…snip…

They can try to attack the projected $50.6 million in cap debt in many ways, but what is the most realistic? And what actions put them in a better spot for the 2025 salary cap?

Here is a 15-step plan for how the Bills get cap-compliant, find breathing room to make a few moves this offseason and put themselves in better cap positioning for 2025 and beyond.



Step 1: Restructure QB Josh Allen (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/josh-allen-9zLTUSPpy6pFa4xs/)’s contract
2024 cap savings with the move: $22.63 million
Running log of cap space after the move: -$27.97 million


Step 2: Don’t restructure WR Stefon Diggs
(https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/stefon-diggs-lPTtUiEJUgmoQukD/)

Step 3: Don’t restructure DE Von Miller
(https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/von-miller-3CFHRgYPasw0E3hK/)

Step 4: Restructure CB Tre’Davious White (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/tredavious-white-2AJ6oTJrxGnx7gDh/) with a non-guaranteed extension
2024 cap savings with the move: $7.39 million
Running log of cap space after the move: -$20.58 million

Step 5: Restructure CB Rasul Douglas (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/rasul-douglas-c4n6Sm4vt7wecXgN/), work toward extension
2024 cap savings with the move: $6.03 million
Running log of cap space after the move: -$-14.55 million

Step 6: Restructure TE Dawson Knox (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/dawson-knox-FE6Y1HgdRshAoBXt/)
2024 cap savings with the move: $5.86 million
Running log of cap space after the move: -$8.70 million

Step 7: Add three void years, restructure C Mitch Morse and sign a one-year extension
2024 cap savings with the move: $5.01 million
Running log of cap space after the move: -$-3.69 million

Step 8: Restructure LG Connor McGovern (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/connor-mcgovern-oRAhJJELvqRozWVu/)
2024 cap savings with the move: $3.12 million
Running log of cap space after the move: -$570K

Step 9: RB Nyheim Hines (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/nyheim-hines-jBSNhy3RhiwrjmTz/) pay cut
2024 cap savings with the move: $2.5 million
Running log of cap space after the move: $1.93 million

Step 10: Restructure LB Matt Milano (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/matt-milano-ZRj4di17FE6yBxBv/)
2024 cap savings with the move: $2.19 million
Running log of cap space after the move: $4.12 million

Step 11: Restructure IOL Ryan Bates (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/ryan-bates-nC4531Y5ckgZ6cp1/)
2024 cap savings with the move: $2.08 million
Running log of cap space after the move: $6.20 million

Step 12: Add one void year and restructure S Jordan Poyer (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/jordan-poyer-WpZKWArS36a5jGeu/)
2024 cap savings with the move: $1.765 million
Running log of cap space after the move: $7.96 million

Step 13: WR Deonte Harty (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/deonte-harty-ukF8L13ujWc3h2Oh/) pay cut
2024 cap savings with the move: $1.5 million
Running log of cap space after the move: $9.46 million

Step 14: Extend NCB Taron Johnson (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/taron-johnson-THRHImglX9Xn1F4s/)


Step 15: Extend LT Dion Dawkins (https://theathletic.com/nfl/player/dion-dawkins-1Z8oWXcTMIFRAxyr/)



End Result

In total, with all these moves, the Bills would give themselves somewhere between $10-$20 million in cap space (depending on the extensions), they push forward $32 million to 2025, and based on their cap sheet in 2025, could be around even with the projected 2025 cap without factoring in any new money given out for extensions, free agents or upcoming draft picks. But they will still be able to compete in 2024, with a much healthier 2025 cap situation that can help them avoid pushing a lot of money forward in future years.

[YardRat]

I've said it numerous times in numerous threads.

Some fans are making the cap situation out to be far more of a problem then it is. They want something to complain about. They want something to gripe about. They want a reason to say the Bills will suck. It was the same conversations last off season, and they managed to fill the roster.

Let it play out

Some people (including me) enjoy the off-season (playing with the cap, free agency, the draft) almost as much as...if not equally...as the regular season. "Let it play out" for the games would be the equivalent of not discussing the opening day loss to the Jets at all, until the end of the season.

[Forward_Lateral]

Some people (including me) enjoy the off-season (playing with the cap, free agency, the draft) almost as much as...if not equally...as the regular season. "Let it play out" for the games would be the equivalent of not discussing the opening day loss to the Jets at all, until the end of the season.

There's a difference between discussing it, and becoming a manic wreck about it. I love discussing it, and the possibilities, but I'm also not sitting here wetting myself because they are "50 million" over the projected cap. They will be just fine, it's just a matter of what moves they decide to make. That's the fun part, discussing what could happen, not pissing and moaning that they are 50 million over, or that they signed Von Miller to a huge contract and he got hurt. I'm not saying you are one of those, I was more directing it to the actual guilty parties that do nothing but complain

[ghz in pittsburgh]

There will be a major cap boom in the next 3-4 years, it's just a matter of when. They are in good shape down the road, just have to get creative this year

We've seen that. Cap boom means all boats, bigger or small are floated. The real measure is % of cap hits for a star QB for example. 3 - 4 year from now, Josh's extension is coming. I can't imagine it will be less than 1/4 to 1/5 of the total cap, regardless the cap is. Same as you LT, your #1 WR, etc.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I honestly think the generational player will have to be drafted.

Kincaid may or may not be that guy, if he is, that would be a huge bonus, as TEs tend not to get paid nearly as astronomically as WRs.

I still believe they need to draft a WR this year, they can't afford to pass up one in this draft, IMO.

If, as in the other thread about Diggs, cutting or trading Diggs after June 1st provides as much cap relief as over the cap says, they have to seriously consider it.
Here is the point I want to make. WR is a need, likewise D-Line, Safety are needs. There are place in the draft to address needs. BUT to get generational players, I'd say Beane must put the needs behind, regardless the position. It is easy to say but hard to do, particularly from coaching side of the team.

You mentioned Kincaid last year, Look at Elam the year before. Beane was chasing the 4th or 5th best CB in 2022 whereas he decided to go top rated TE on his board instead of a 5th best WR. The approach is important here, not saying the nth picked player in a position can't have a better career than the n-1 picked player.

[Mace]

Wait a minute. Buscaglia has them saving 4 mil by restructuring Hines and Harty when we save 8 mil by cutting them ?

[Woodman]

I've said it numerous times in numerous threads.

Some fans are making the cap situation out to be far more of a problem then it is. They want something to complain about. They want something to gripe about. They want a reason to say the Bills will suck. It was the same conversations last off season, and they managed to fill the roster.

Let it play out

We have to wait ..... you're definitely right about that.

Patience is a virtue ........ :gobills:

[Woodman]

Wait a minute. Buscaglia has them saving 4 mil by restructuring Hines and Harty when we save 8 mil by cutting them ?

I'm surprised we still have Hines.

[Mace]

But it is a big problem because it doesn’t allow us to go after much proven talent. Thank God Beane has been drafting well and that will have to continue to be competitive in the top tier of the AFC.

Just mho....you don't see the long term contenders repeatedly going after proven talent so much as developing their own. We've been pushing the "all in for this year" thing too long and they''ve had years to build a draft talent pipeline.

[Novacane]

Wait a minute. Buscaglia has them saving 4 mil by restructuring Hines and Harty when we save 8 mil by cutting them ?

He's trying to use the who are you going to replace them with argument. He's an idiot. They can be replaced with udfa. Between the two we got 1 big play all season.

[Mace]

I'm surprised we still have Hines.

I respect him for his timely contributions to the effort, but college football produces loads of cheap fast air raid offense rookies that could match the total production of Hines, Harty, and Sheffield at less expense with the same level of dubious impact and frustration.

[Woodman]

I respect him for his timely contributions to the effort, but college football produces loads of cheap fast air raid offense rookies that could match the total production of Hines, Harty, and Sheffield at less expense with the same level of dubious impact and frustration.
We never got what we'd hoped for.

Sheffield one or two big catches ...... not enough.

Harty one huge return ........ not enough.

Hines two great kick returns ...... not enough.

Did they all get enough of an opportunity? :idunno:

[sukie]

I respect him for his timely contributions to the effort, but college football produces loads of cheap fast air raid offense rookies that could match the total production of Hines, Harty, and Sheffield at less expense with the same level of dubious impact and frustration.
And I wanna point out hat it’s dubious impact that causes the frustration. Not just impactful impact. DOOOO-be-us.

[Forward_Lateral]

Here is the point I want to make. WR is a need, likewise D-Line, Safety are needs. There are place in the draft to address needs. BUT to get generational players, I'd say Beane must put the needs behind, regardless the position. It is easy to say but hard to do, particularly from coaching side of the team.

You mentioned Kincaid last year, Look at Elam the year before. Beane was chasing the 4th or 5th best CB in 2022 whereas he decided to go top rated TE on his board instead of a 5th best WR. The approach is important here, not saying the nth picked player in a position can't have a better career than the n-1 picked player.
I agree 100%

If there's a WR that they absolutely think is the best and they need to move up to get him, they should make every attempt to do it.

[notacon]

Wait a minute. Buscaglia has them saving 4 mil by restructuring Hines and Harty when we save 8 mil by cutting them ?
If you had a subscription, you would be able to read his logic. It's pretty sound and he does address the difference in cap saving if they cut them.

[notacon]

Here is the point I want to make. WR is a need, likewise D-Line, Safety are needs. There are place in the draft to address needs. BUT to get generational players, I'd say Beane must put the needs behind, regardless the position. It is easy to say but hard to do, particularly from coaching side of the team.

You mentioned Kincaid last year, Look at Elam the year before. Beane was chasing the 4th or 5th best CB in 2022 whereas he decided to go top rated TE on his board instead of a 5th best WR. The approach is important here, not saying the nth picked player in a position can't have a better career than the n-1 picked player.

The problem with chasing that elusive "generational player" is that you never know when or where they will come from.

1st round, with it's close to 50% bust rate, is not even close to sure thing and several extremely excellent and immediately effective (I hesitate using the "generational player" moniker because by it's very definition it means player that only comes around every TWENTY YEARS or so) come from late rounds.

A few recent examples....

Isaih Pacheco KC RB - 2022 7th round, 251st overall

Puca Nacua - WR LAR - 2023 5th round, 177th overall

Tariq Woolen - CB SEA - 2022 5th round, 153rd overall

And, of course, Brock Purdy - QB SF - 2022 - 7th round, 262nd and last overall


In any event, it is a difficult task to balance need and BPA. Sometimes you get lucky (or make your own luck by moving up in the draft) when the Bills went after Dalton Kincaid, who certainly looks like a critical pass catcher for for years to come.

It's great to strike it big in the late rounds too, like Christian Benford, 6th round, 185th overall.

I suspect that the priorities in position (depending on who is available...as always) will probbaly be...

1. WR
2/3. DE/DL (both equally important and interchangeable depending on who they have their eye on and what happens in FA)
4. Safety

Everything else is secondary.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I actually suspect Beane has been of the mindset of what I described in general.

What is a generational talent at a position? In general, you have physical traits, great work ethics, and natural instinct. Of course there are exceptions. What notacon listed are exceptions and I don't even know they are generational talents. But as you know, you can't plan for exceptions.

Physical traits can be measured. Since Beane has been the GM, you see he pretty much selects round 1 picks meeting positional ideal physical requirements. Allen and Edmunds in 2018, Rousseau in 2021, Elam in 2022, Kincaid in 2023 are all pretty in preferred size, speed etc. etc. The only exception is Oliver in 2019, who is on the small side. But he had elite get-off and maybe the example of Aaron Donald clouded his decision. In hindsight, I think it is a mistake when you use an exception of Donald to base your decision.

Work Ethics is difficult to get. People changes, especially from having nothing to millionaire over night. Donahoe famously said "money changes people" which is very very true. So far we see Allen seemed to be doing OK on that front, and Oliver for year 1 with money is doing great.

Instinct is even harder to get. You can measure intelligence using various tests, watching college films, talking to college coaches, but until those guys are on the field, with the knowledge of your defense and then act accordingly within your defense structure in milli-seconds, you really don't know. That's the luck in a lot of people's view. Allen is a very quick thinker on feet, you can see it in interviews and on the field. Edmunds, not so much. People are high on Kincaid because he seems to display those traits this season. I don't see outstanding display of instincts from Oliver/Rousseau. Elam is still at the stage of fighting the scheme (defense structure) and technique, so his not really playing free yet.

I want to point out that Bernard is one of those with high instinct but limited physically - lack of size, strength (mis-tackles), and ability to change directions (over-run plays).

So the bottom line: I expect Beane, in the first round, to pick a guy with a prototype physical traits for whatever position he plays; some basic background check - he's good guy, competitive, dedicated to his trade etc.; and someone who passes the intelligence test in front of the coaches and scouts etc.

I don't think it is all on luck. The challenge will be, say if you have a Center who you think has everything to become a generational talent, but also has a WR available who is likely a very good WR#2 (say speed and size) but lacks instincts to be WR#1. It will be a difficult decision. This year, however, the Bills have so many holes in DT, DE, S, WR, and a very limited cap to get even one top-end talent at those positions thru free agency. I don't think they will be presented with a difficult decision.

[Mace]

If you had a subscription, you would be able to read his logic. It's pretty sound and he does address the difference in cap saving if they cut them.

I'm good with my own logic that says save 8 million by getting rid of all three who added next to nothing this season. Added bonus is that I saved money by not having a subscription.

[jamze132]

I really don’t put a lot of stock in 40 times or shuttle runs. Let me see the tape, how competitive they are, their natural instincts, and their character.

[notacon]

I actually suspect Beane has been of the mindset of what I described in general.

What is a generational talent at a position? In general, you have physical traits, great work ethics, and natural instinct. Of course there are exceptions. What notacon listed are exceptions and I don't even know they are generational talents. But as you know, you can't plan for exceptions.

Physical traits can be measured. Since Beane has been the GM, you see he pretty much selects round 1 picks meeting positional ideal physical requirements. Allen and Edmunds in 2018, Rousseau in 2021, Elam in 2022, Kincaid in 2023 are all pretty in preferred size, speed etc. etc. The only exception is Oliver in 2019, who is on the small side. But he had elite get-off and maybe the example of Aaron Donald clouded his decision. In hindsight, I think it is a mistake when you use an exception of Donald to base your decision.

Work Ethics is difficult to get. People changes, especially from having nothing to millionaire over night. Donahoe famously said "money changes people" which is very very true. So far we see Allen seemed to be doing OK on that front, and Oliver for year 1 with money is doing great.

Instinct is even harder to get. You can measure intelligence using various tests, watching college films, talking to college coaches, but until those guys are on the field, with the knowledge of your defense and then act accordingly within your defense structure in milli-seconds, you really don't know. That's the luck in a lot of people's view. Allen is a very quick thinker on feet, you can see it in interviews and on the field. Edmunds, not so much. People are high on Kincaid because he seems to display those traits this season. I don't see outstanding display of instincts from Oliver/Rousseau. Elam is still at the stage of fighting the scheme (defense structure) and technique, so his not really playing free yet.

I want to point out that Bernard is one of those with high instinct but limited physically - lack of size, strength (mis-tackles), and ability to change directions (over-run plays).

So the bottom line: I expect Beane, in the first round, to pick a guy with a prototype physical traits for whatever position he plays; some basic background check - he's good guy, competitive, dedicated to his trade etc.; and someone who passes the intelligence test in front of the coaches and scouts etc.

I don't think it is all on luck. The challenge will be, say if you have a Center who you think has everything to become a generational talent, but also has a WR available who is likely a very good WR#2 (say speed and size) but lacks instincts to be WR#1. It will be a difficult decision. This year, however, the Bills have so many holes in DT, DE, S, WR, and a very limited cap to get even one top-end talent at those positions thru free agency. I don't think they will be presented with a difficult decision.

Since you mention what I said, correctly observing that excellent, impactful players are found in later rounds of the draft, I did not say any of them were "generational talent"...I will further explain my position.

In fact, I (already) reject(ed) the flippant use of that word since it "it's very definition it means player that only comes around every TWENTY YEARS or so"

Your definition of "What is a generational talent at a position" is a non-starter and apparently does not even recognize what that term "generational talent" even means.

The traits you cite are "physical traits, great work ethics, and natural instinct." are more appropriate to literally hundreds of starters across the league. The Bills are chock full of players that fit that description, but we have only ONE "generational talent" (in all seriousness the Bills have two, but Von Miller is past his prime)

KC, has TWO.

Hoping for more "generational talent" is like mining for fools gold.

[notacon]

I'm good with my own logic that says save 8 million by getting rid of all three who added next to nothing this season. Added bonus is that I saved money by not having a subscription.


Hmmmmm....narrow minded arrogance that will not even consider another's logic....especially one that is a professional NFL observer.

Got it!!


This is a perfect example of why I value professional opinions and observations more than some of self-proclaimed living room couch "experts" that know a lot less about football than they think they do.

[YardRat]

I actually suspect Beane has been of the mindset of what I described in general.

What is a generational talent at a position? In general, you have physical traits, great work ethics, and natural instinct. Of course there are exceptions. What notacon listed are exceptions and I don't even know they are generational talents. But as you know, you can't plan for exceptions.

Physical traits can be measured. Since Beane has been the GM, you see he pretty much selects round 1 picks meeting positional ideal physical requirements. Allen and Edmunds in 2018, Rousseau in 2021, Elam in 2022, Kincaid in 2023 are all pretty in preferred size, speed etc. etc. The only exception is Oliver in 2019, who is on the small side. But he had elite get-off and maybe the example of Aaron Donald clouded his decision. In hindsight, I think it is a mistake when you use an exception of Donald to base your decision.

Work Ethics is difficult to get. People changes, especially from having nothing to millionaire over night. Donahoe famously said "money changes people" which is very very true. So far we see Allen seemed to be doing OK on that front, and Oliver for year 1 with money is doing great.

Instinct is even harder to get. You can measure intelligence using various tests, watching college films, talking to college coaches, but until those guys are on the field, with the knowledge of your defense and then act accordingly within your defense structure in milli-seconds, you really don't know. That's the luck in a lot of people's view. Allen is a very quick thinker on feet, you can see it in interviews and on the field. Edmunds, not so much. People are high on Kincaid because he seems to display those traits this season. I don't see outstanding display of instincts from Oliver/Rousseau. Elam is still at the stage of fighting the scheme (defense structure) and technique, so his not really playing free yet.

I want to point out that Bernard is one of those with high instinct but limited physically - lack of size, strength (mis-tackles), and ability to change directions (over-run plays).

So the bottom line: I expect Beane, in the first round, to pick a guy with a prototype physical traits for whatever position he plays; some basic background check - he's good guy, competitive, dedicated to his trade etc.; and someone who passes the intelligence test in front of the coaches and scouts etc.

I don't think it is all on luck. The challenge will be, say if you have a Center who you think has everything to become a generational talent, but also has a WR available who is likely a very good WR#2 (say speed and size) but lacks instincts to be WR#1. It will be a difficult decision. This year, however, the Bills have so many holes in DT, DE, S, WR, and a very limited cap to get even one top-end talent at those positions thru free agency. I don't think they will be presented with a difficult decision.


One of Beane's biggest issues (IMO) is chasing after physical attributes and favoring those more than a football player. I would argue guys like Allen, Edmunds, Groot, Brown...maybe even Kincaid...aren't 'prototypical', they are physical exceptions. You can get a glimpse of instincts by watching film and ignoring the measurables.

[Mace]

Hmmmmm....narrow minded arrogance that will not even consider another's logic....especially one that is a professional NFL observer.

Got it!!


This is a perfect example of why I value professional opinions and observations more than some of self-proclaimed living room couch "experts" that know a lot less about football than they think they do.

I considered his possible logic and did not find it viable. That's called using your own brain and not defaulting to "what he said", and if you had any capacity for critical thought it would make sense to you.

You can surely value what you want to and I will certainly value what I want to, but I consider you a slave to the opinions of others that you find comfortable, and I'm just not.

But it's a message board and you're entirely free and welcome to follow your lack of thought and I will happily encourage the ignorance because it's your opinion.

And I have mine, and we'll see how it works. I can easily recall your happy homerism and Buscaglia boot licking for the past couple years, and point out the failure, but, again, it's a message board and better for having you cheerlead for your chosen boys.

Same thing. Cut them, useless, saves 8 mil and gets them out of here.

[jamze132]

Hmmmmm....narrow minded arrogance that will not even consider another's logic....especially one that is a professional NFL observer.

Got it!!


This is a perfect example of why I value professional opinions and observations more than some of self-proclaimed living room couch "experts" that know a lot less about football than they think they do.

Mace has more a reputation for football acumen than you do. You simply regurgitate whatever you read without an original thought.

[Historian]

And something tells me that the Bills will be paying very close attention to the USFL/XFL/Whatever-the-****-it-is-FL for a couple of unpolished gems.

Given that it is actual game play, one would be silly not to, right?

[jamze132]

And something tells me that the Bills will be paying very close attention to the USFL/XFL/Whatever-the-****-it-is-FL for a couple of unpolished gems.

Given that it is actual game play, one would be silly not to, right?

Exactly. Players who excel in those leagues are typically useful in the NFL and can be had on the cheap. They come with experience outside college which is also valuable.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

And something tells me that the Bills will be paying very close attention to the USFL/XFL/Whatever-the-****-it-is-FL for a couple of unpolished gems.

Given that it is actual game play, one would be silly not to, right?
absolutely, you can get a nice backup/practice squad or special teams ace from there. why not take a look?

[notacon]

I considered his possible logic and did not find it viable. That's called using your own brain and not defaulting to "what he said", and if you had any capacity for critical thought it would make sense to you.

You can surely value what you want to and I will certainly value what I want to, but I consider you a slave to the opinions of others that you find comfortable, and I'm just not.

But it's a message board and you're entirely free and welcome to follow your lack of thought and I will happily encourage the ignorance because it's your opinion.

And I have mine, and we'll see how it works. I can easily recall your happy homerism and Buscaglia boot licking for the past couple years, and point out the failure, but, again, it's a message board and better for having you cheerlead for your chosen boys.

Same thing. Cut them, useless, saves 8 mil and gets them out of here.

Except you DO NOT KNOW what his logic was. PLUS, you do not even know to what degree he was putting forth a suggestion based on what he believes Beane would do.


I always know what I have a solid argument when some lazy poster trots out the "homerism" canard. WHAT TOTAL BULLCRAP!!!!! Even WORSE is attributing the INSANE IDEA accusing Joe Buscaglia "boot licking", when you DO NOT READ WHAT HE WRITES!!! :rofl:


'Stupid, ignorant, baseless assumptions for $1,000 Alex'

But, hey, it's a message board and you're entirely free and welcome to follow your lack of thought and I will happily encourage YOUR ignorance because it's your opinion.

[notacon]

Mace has more a reputation for football acumen than you do. You simply regurgitate whatever you read without an original thought.


Of course I did not even attempt to compare his "football acumen" to mine. I know from experience that you have a difficult time understanding simple English with nuanced ideas. READ WHAT I WROTE!!!!

"....living room couch "experts" that know a lot less about football than they think they do."


THAT is simply an observation of the overblown opinion a lot of posters have of themselves and their supposed "expertise". I am smart enough to actually read and listen to professional experts (including ex-NFL (and current) players, coaches and GM's) that DO know a LOT more about football than ANYONE HERE.

:rofl: As for your stupid and false accusation that I "simply regurgitate whatever you read without an original thought."....Except all the post that I present DETAILED RESEARCH and my own analysis that is difficult to refute (and when some try, like you, you make a fool of yourself)

Sure seems like you are not in the real world, and have to fall back on false, dishonest tropes so you can make yourself feel better. :rolleyes: Yes....I am calling you out as lying.

[jamze132]

Of course I did not even attempt to compare his "football acumen" to mine. I know from experience that you have a difficult time understanding simple English with nuanced ideas. READ WHAT I WROTE!!!!

"....living room couch "experts" that know a lot less about football than they think they do."


THAT is simply an observation of the overblown opinion a lot of posters have of themselves and their supposed "expertise". I am smart enough to actually read and listen to professional experts (including ex-NFL (and current) players, coaches and GM's) that DO know a LOT more about football than ANYONE HERE.

:rofl: As for your stupid and false accusation that I "simply regurgitate whatever you read without an original thought."....Except all the post that I present DETAILED RESEARCH and my own analysis that is difficult to refute (and when some try, like you, you make a fool of yourself)

Sure seems like you are not in the real world, and have to fall back on false, dishonest tropes so you can make yourself feel better. :rolleyes: Yes....I am calling you out as lying.

Nah, you just look for articles that sound smart, then you copy/paste, and then add a few words to pass it off so your “opinion” matches GM, coaches, players, x-players, cheer leaders, x-wives of players, journalists, x-journalists and their wives, etc.

Child, please!

[notacon]

Nah, you just look for articles that sound smart, then you copy/paste, and then add a few words to pass it off so your “opinion” matches GM, coaches, players, x-players, cheer leaders, x-wives of players, journalists, x-journalists and their wives, etc.

Child, please!

:rofl: Still lying I see.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

In fact, I (already) reject(ed) the flippant use of that word since it "it's very definition it means player that only comes around every TWENTY YEARS or so"

Your definition of "What is a generational talent at a position" is a non-starter and apparently does not even recognize what that term "generational talent" even means.

The traits you cite are "physical traits, great work ethics, and natural instinct." are more appropriate to literally hundreds of starters across the league. The Bills are chock full of players that fit that description, but we have only ONE "generational talent" (in all seriousness the Bills have two, but Von Miller is past his prime)

KC, has TWO.

Hoping for more "generational talent" is like mining for fools gold.

I can say I'm looking for HOF career making players as generation talent. And indeed, football instincts with physical talent, combined with work athics to bring all of that out is how it is done in general. There are exceptions of course, but rare.

The fact you said hundreds of starters across theleagure have them is just that ... let me just omit the word because I don't want to sound insulting. I said before one of my buddy works for a sports agency here. He started out at the lowest rank as a go-fer. You will be surprised to hear all kinds of sordid stories for almost all of the NFL/NBA calber guys, even those who appear on TV and looked to be nice, hardworking guys. Maybe there are mis-undersatndings of what I'm talking about here. Say what is the definition of "work ethics"? If a blue color guy in normal life puts in 8 hours a day at his job, dedicating 100% of attention while on the job, does he have a good work ethic? Hell yeah. Now applies this to the NFL players. You are right, using that standard, maority of them do have a good work ethics. But that's not what I mean. There are guys, already on second (or later) contract with all kinds of guarantees, well paid, go to facility for 10 hours a day in season, then go home study film on his own for another 2 hours, then get personal trainer for 1 hour on some new idea of improving, mental or physical. THAT is the "work ethics" I'm talking about.

A lot of guys after 10 hours at facility, go home, have self decipline not to get into trouble for personal conduct cause in their contracts, play games, kids and wife, maybe mingle with other guys and gals to relax. Nothing wrong, normal. Those are not what I'm talking about.

Then there are also a lot of them like the attention, the admiration from ordernary folks. Heck the temptation is hard to resist because as my buddy once told me, people literally threw themselves onto the player. It is easy to enjoy those moments than listening to the criticism from the coaches and media.

[notacon]

I can say I'm looking for HOF career making players as generation talent. And indeed, football instincts with physical talent, combined with work athics to bring all of that out is how it is done in general. There are exceptions of course, but rare.

The fact you said hundreds of starters across theleagure have them is just that ... let me just omit the word because I don't want to sound insulting. I said before one of my buddy works for a sports agency here. He started out at the lowest rank as a go-fer. You will be surprised to hear all kinds of sordid stories for almost all of the NFL/NBA calber guys, even those who appear on TV and looked to be nice, hardworking guys. Maybe there are mis-undersatndings of what I'm talking about here. Say what is the definition of "work ethics"? If a blue color guy in normal life puts in 8 hours a day at his job, dedicating 100% of attention while on the job, does he have a good work ethic? Hell yeah. Now applies this to the NFL players. You are right, using that standard, maority of them do have a good work ethics. But that's not what I mean. There are guys, already on second (or later) contract with all kinds of guarantees, well paid, go to facility for 10 hours a day in season, then go home study film on his own for another 2 hours, then get personal trainer for 1 hour on some new idea of improving, mental or physical. THAT is the "work ethics" I'm talking about.

A lot of guys after 10 hours at facility, go home, have self decipline not to get into trouble for personal conduct cause in their contracts, play games, kids and wife, maybe mingle with other guys and gals to relax. Nothing wrong, normal. Those are not what I'm talking about.

Then there are also a lot of them like the attention, the admiration from ordernary folks. Heck the temptation is hard to resist because as my buddy once told me, people literally threw themselves onto the player. It is easy to enjoy those moments than listening to the criticism from the coaches and media.
Please, stick to what I actually said and what you want to construe what I said.

I said this....."The traits you cite are "physical traits, great work ethics, and natural instinct." are more appropriate to literally hundreds of starters across the league. The Bills are chock full of players that fit that description, but we have only ONE "generational talent" (in all seriousness the Bills have two, but Von Miller is past his prime)"

I think that "physical traits, great work ethics, and natural instinct." ARE "appropriate to literally hundreds of starters across the league"...are not necessarily HOF players either, much less limited to "generational talent".

I understand what you are tying to say. I just don't agree with the idea that extraordinary players ("generational talent") is required in large amounts for any team to succeed.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I understand what you are tying to say. I just don't agree with the idea that extraordinary players ("generational talent") is required in large amounts for any team to succeed.

We can agree to disagree. But time and time again, extraordinary players (in your words) is what we see in superbowl winning teams. You said the Chiefs had two, I think you are selling Chris Jones short. I always count they have 3 and before Hill left, had 4. Adding Reid, the likely coaching HoF, not surprising that they are dominating the NFL the last few years.

Time to give their GM credit. It's not just Mahomes, who is not having a spectacular year or superbowl - he rises to occasion like a generational talent can and do. But you can argue the Chiefs D carried them this year. The talent on that side is not to be ignored. Who is seeing Sneed, who's drafted in the 4th round 4 years ago, does not have the prototype arm length the Bills would be looking for, is becoming a top lock down corner in NFL this season, playing at "extraordinary level" this season?

[notacon]

We can agree to disagree. But time and time again, extraordinary players (in your words) is what we see in superbowl winning teams. You said the Chiefs had two, I think you are selling Chris Jones short. I always count they have 3 and before Hill left, had 4. Adding Reid, the likely coaching HoF, not surprising that they are dominating the NFL the last few years.

Time to give their GM credit. It's not just Mahomes, who is not having a spectacular year or superbowl - he rises to occasion like a generational talent can and do. But you can argue the Chiefs D carried them this year. The talent on that side is not to be ignored. Who is seeing Sneed, who's drafted in the 4th round 4 years ago, does not have the prototype arm length the Bills would be looking for, is becoming a top lock down corner in NFL this season, playing at "extraordinary level" this season?
Yep. Best we agree to disagree.

Chris Jones is good for sure, but he's not a generational talent.

KC is great because of Patrick Mahomes. Period.