So the Bills D may go thru a bigger change than we all think?

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Those Cover 1 guys do know the Bills coaching staff well, even the connections.
New DB coach Addae, according to the clinics he has given in the past etc., teaches man coverage technique opposite of Butler's. Also he came from colleges where man coverage is played at a much higher percentage than the Bills. It does jives with what we saw from McDermott's defense this past season - he wants to be more aggressive, which may mean we are going to see more man coverage than ever in McDermott's era. That could also change the D players we'll be looking for in the draft.
Interesting that they see 1T DT with quickness is the every top need of the Bills, ahead of WR.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqiGYywCnkQ

[jamze132]

I’d love to have a couple of shut-down CBs. It’d open up so many more options for blitzes.

[TheConsigliere]

Those Cover 1 guys do know the Bills coaching staff well, even the connections.
New DB coach Addae, according to the clinics he has given in the past etc., teaches man coverage technique opposite of Butler's. Also he came from colleges where man coverage is played at a much higher percentage than the Bills. It does jives with what we saw from McDermott's defense this past season - he wants to be more aggressive, which may mean we are going to see more man coverage than ever in McDermott's era. That could also change the D players we'll be looking for in the draft.
Interesting that they see 1T DT with quickness is the every top need of the Bills, ahead of WR.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqiGYywCnkQ

An elite 1DT is exactly what this D needs but the Draft Value Nazis won’t like it.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

An elite 1DT is exactly what this D needs but the Draft Value Nazis won’t like it.
Interesting though, the cover 1 guys do not think Sweat is the one fit the Bills. I can't disagree after watch Linval Joseph against Mahomes in the playoff game.

If they are going to spend a 1st round pick on a 1T DT, they want someone who can rush the passer. With the size of ours LBs, the right kind of DTs is very important to us.

[Forward_Lateral]

I think injuries really hand cuffed McDermott from doing what he wanted to do vs the Chiefs. I think the roster is slowly turning over (on that side of the ball) to what he really wants, which is corners that can play man. They got Douglas at the deadline, drafted Elam and Benford. Those guys can play man.

It's going to be an interesting off season.

[Forward_Lateral]

An elite 1DT is exactly what this D needs but the Draft Value Nazis won’t like it.

The problem is, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. There's maybe a dozen of them in the NFL, if that?

[DraftBoy]

I think injuries really hand cuffed McDermott from doing what he wanted to do vs the Chiefs. I think the roster is slowly turning over (on that side of the ball) to what he really wants, which is corners that can play man. They got Douglas at the deadline, drafted Elam and Benford. Those guys can play man.

It's going to be an interesting off season.

If I recall correctly McDermott has been a near exclusive zone guy since his time in Carolina. Not saying a switch isnt coming, but it would be a rather massive shift in how McDermott has demonstrated he prefers to play cover.

[Forward_Lateral]

If I recall correctly McDermott has been a near exclusive zone guy since his time in Carolina. Not saying a switch isnt coming, but it would be a rather massive shift in how McDermott has demonstrated he prefers to play cover.
All signs are pointing to it.

[Mace]

If I recall correctly McDermott has been a near exclusive zone guy since his time in Carolina. Not saying a switch isnt coming, but it would be a rather massive shift in how McDermott has demonstrated he prefers to play cover.

More likely they want the flexibility to have better man coverage options to mix in, instead of wholesale change imho. That's my hope anyway, it would be a big step toward making the defense more concerning for opponents. I thought that's why they drafted Elam, but they did it rare and uncomfortable until falling back into pattern.

You'll see good defenses threaten man with credibility then drop into zone, or flash a credible zone look that turns into man.

Never been a fan of passive defense, would be another step toward dynamic aggressive which I'd appreciate.

[DraftBoy]

More likely they want the flexibility to have better man coverage options to mix in, instead of wholesale change imho. That's my hope anyway, it would be a big step toward making the defense more concerning for opponents. I thought that's why they drafted Elam, but they did it rare and uncomfortable until falling back into pattern.

You'll see good defenses threaten man with credibility then drop into zone, or flash a credible zone look that turns into man.

Never been a fan of passive defense, would be another step toward dynamic aggressive which I'd appreciate.

I’d be all for better versatility and aggression in the D. It’s just usually if you’re going man you’re either loading up on pass rush to get after the QB or you have great LB’s who can cover. Milano is decent to good in coverage but I’m not sure he’s enough for a man scheme against top end TE’s or slot guys. Bernard is a better athlete but not near Milano’s coverage skills.

[Mace]

I’d be all for better versatility and aggression in the D. It’s just usually if you’re going man you’re either loading up on pass rush to get after the QB or you have great LB’s who can cover. Milano is decent to good in coverage but I’m not sure he’s enough for a man scheme against top end TE’s or slot guys. Bernard is a better athlete but not near Milano’s coverage skills.

Oh.....absolutely agree. I don't know what the team looks like in 6 months though, how healthy anyone is, or what the newer staff can do with who they have then or what they intend. I'm simply saying I'm hoping for more dynamic possibilities as they shape their intent, instead of counting on wholesale change to the basics.

[Forward_Lateral]

If you actually watched the video, the team that played the most man was like 30% of the time. Bills were 15%. This doesn’t mean they’ll switch to a base man defence. It may mean they will play more man on third down/critical situations so they can blitz more.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

If you actually watched the video, the team that played the most man was like 30% of the time. Bills were 15%.

And Bills man coverage effectiveness is ranked near bottom.

[DraftBoy]

If you actually watched the video, the team that played the most man was like 30% of the time. Bills were 15%. This doesn’t mean they’ll switch to a base man defence. It may mean they will play more man on third down/critical situations so they can blitz more.

I don’t watch the Cover 1 stuff. Liked their earlier stuff more than what they’ve moved into. Think they do good work, just more stylistic and delivery preference.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

In terms of scheme, scouting, the Cover 1 guys are good, unlike the other "general public consumption" reporters we have, as well as the Athletics guys who are amateur guessers and maybe good at snap counts etc. Erik Turner played college ball and had the aspiration of a collegial football coach before giving up. He did all kinds of video breakdowns while in college, which actually led him to his police video work in post collegial coaching dream. They go full press on all the combine, scouting, senior ball etc., and starting from last year, getting current Bill players to go on their show, not just fringe players like McKenzie. I know the Bills don't give them press access because it is difficult to limit certain online streamers from others, but maybe another factor is these guys may actually ask players questions that borderline scheme secrets and there is not much mainstream media control like the Buffalo News and TV stations in terms what to go public and what not to for them.

[Forward_Lateral]

And Bills man coverage effectiveness is ranked near bottom.

Yep. I think part of it falls on blitz effectively too but that’s another discussion

[Woodman]

Defense still wins Championships .....

[notacon]

Defense still wins Championships .....

Nope.

Elite QB's win championships.

[Forward_Lateral]

Nope.

Elite QB's win championships.

And elite coaching.

[notacon]

And elite coaching.
Elite QB's make coaches look elite.

[Forward_Lateral]

Elite QB's make coaches look elite.
For the most part, I'd agree, yes.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

The Bills D is of those that work well against majority of NFL teams, but against offense with elite QBs like Mahomes, Burrows, not so much. Just feel like this off-season, you have the feel it is the "turning of the page" transition under McDermott from coaching staff to the players they will acquire; they are aligning themselves towards more capable playoff defense. Generally you need better players under man.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">5 comebacks of 10+ points in 2nd half of Super Bowls.<br><br>4 of them have come against defenses playing some version of Seattle Scheme (SEA, ATL, SF x2)<br><br>It’s an effective system. But a little too pass rush reliant. And not enough wrinkles. Especially against all-time QBs</p>&mdash; Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) <a href="https://twitter.com/CSimmsQB/status/1757816679663288688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 14, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Forward_Lateral]

100%.

The Tampa 2 or Shell or whatever you want to call it is a great Defense if you can pressure the QB. If you can't, it sucks. That being said, playing man coverage also sucks if you can't pressure the QB.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I think if you play zone against Mahomes and Kelce, it's just a match up nightmare. Mahomes is a smart QB who can read defense well, have ability to extend plays. Kelce is great in finding soft zone, aka "being open."

Play man, you have more resource to spy or to pressure to force the issue. A big if is your man coverage is good enough --- all QBs like playing against man coverage because the read is simple, just need to find you best match up.

The most important part is more disguise and mixes.

[Woodman]

I’d love to have a couple of shut-down CBs. It’d open up so many more options for blitzes.

Give me McDuffie and Sneed and it's game over for everybody.

[Woodman]

Let us hit on a couple corners this draft class .... at least one.

[notacon]

The Bills defense was factually decimated by injury in 2023.

Losing three of your best star defenders for extended number of games negates the roster building of a defense.

Tre' White missed 13 games. Matt Milano missed 12 and DaQuan Jones missed 10.

That's 25% of your starters missing TWO THIRDS of the games.

The Bills were tied for the fourth-most games lost by starters on defense with 46. That does not count Von Miller's four missed games, because the injury occurred in 2022.

Meanwhile, according to the Buffalo News (https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/bills-enjoyed-healthiest-offense-in-nfl-in-2023-defense-not-so-much/article_e40206ea-c6b7-11ee-90d2-f3926c28bb4b.html)....


"It should come as no surprise that once again, there was a strong correlation between health and success. The two teams that made the Super Bowl were among the healthiest in the league.

Kansas City was tied for the second-fewest games lost at 27. San Francisco had the fifth-lowest total at 30.

The Chiefs have had an amazing run of good health in recent years. They lost the fewest games in the NFL to injury in 2022, the third fewest in 2021 and the 10th fewest in 2020. They were tied for 13th in both 2019 and 2018."

All the planning and roster building goes out the window when so many injuries take place, especially to your biggest stars!!

[notacon]

BTW....the "46 games lost" by starters was ONLY for defense. The offensive starters were much healthier, missing only six games. The O-line was one of only two NFL teams that had no games lost by O-line starters.

But, the official number of games lost by starters for the Bills is FIFTY-TWO.

That's just under TWICE as much as KC's 27.

[Typ0]

All the planning and roster building goes out the window when so many injuries take place, especially to your biggest stars!!


Either that....or your planning and roster building procedures are correlated with the injuries!

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Maybe the age comes into play on injuries. Chiefs has the 7th youngest team. The Bills 26th.

Haven't looked in details, I suspect the Bills D roster is older than Bills O roster? How many starting D players is under the age of 26 at the start of the season?

[Typ0]

Maybe the age comes into play on injuries. Chiefs has the 7th youngest team. The Bills 26th.

Haven't looked in details, I suspect the Bills D roster is older than Bills O roster? How many starting D players is under the age of 26 at the start of the season?

That would be planning and roster building...

[jamze132]

The Bills defense was factually decimated by injury in 2023.

Losing three of your best star defenders for extended number of games negates the roster building of a defense.

Tre' White missed 13 games. Matt Milano missed 12 and DaQuan Jones missed 10.

That's 25% of your starters missing TWO THIRDS of the games.

The Bills were tied for the fourth-most games lost by starters on defense with 46. That does not count Von Miller's four missed games, because the injury occurred in 2022.

Meanwhile, according to the Buffalo News (https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/bills-enjoyed-healthiest-offense-in-nfl-in-2023-defense-not-so-much/article_e40206ea-c6b7-11ee-90d2-f3926c28bb4b.html)....


"It should come as no surprise that once again, there was a strong correlation between health and success. The two teams that made the Super Bowl were among the healthiest in the league.

Kansas City was tied for the second-fewest games lost at 27. San Francisco had the fifth-lowest total at 30.

The Chiefs have had an amazing run of good health in recent years. They lost the fewest games in the NFL to injury in 2022, the third fewest in 2021 and the 10th fewest in 2020. They were tied for 13th in both 2019 and 2018."

All the planning and roster building goes out the window when so many injuries take place, especially to your biggest stars!!

That is what I’ve been preaching as to why Kelce beat us. Just one of Milano or Bernard were healthy, we would have beaten them…and then Baltimore. ****ing sucks.

[Turf]

Interesting though, the cover 1 guys do not think Sweat is the one fit the Bills. I can't disagree after watch Linval Joseph against Mahomes in the playoff game.

If they are going to spend a 1st round pick on a 1T DT, they want someone who can rush the passer. With the size of ours LBs, the right kind of DTs is very important to us.

So I don't get it with DT. We need the BIG guys in to stop the run. Oliver's not big enough. So now we need a quicker DT. Oliver's too slow. Why did we pay him? I think investing a 1st round pick on a DT this year is stupid. WR is the clear need.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I have said this all along. My preference is going after a potential HoF talent in their evaluation in the first round, regardless position need. Those ones are hard to come by and they change franchises. The fact the Bills, in the draught years, 17 in a row, despite drafting top 10, top 15 most of the time, did not get a single one of those players tells you how hard to get them. When you get a few of them like in the late 80s, look at the result!

That being said, there might be none of those players in a draft year. or not realistic to get to the position to draft that kind of player. I get it. Also how good are your scouts, how good is your judgement (Beane I'm speaking to you) comes into the equation. I suppose they can look back, and say 2 years ago, scout A and I believed player X is that kind of player before the draft, where is X now in the league, to kind of gauging your judgement ability to go for the next one in the coming draft or not. Sounds like Beane has been involved in the McCaffery evaluation and of course Allen decision here. So it is not like he has no experience at all.

Next level is the needs. WR is a need. S, DT are needs. You ask anyone on the Bills, those are top 3, whichever order you may have. Someone has the argument that if all talent are equal (very argument sake because hard to judge talent among different positions), which one gives you the best bang for the buck? The Bills offense has been consistently scoring around 27 points a game last couple of years which is already near historic high in NFL in general and the offense weapons, health-wise indicating they are performing near peak. A 2nd WR definitely is needed as we all see, but how much better can it be? Would a quality DT or S who can contribute to one more 3rd down stop against an opponent impacting more? That's what Beane and McDermott will decide. We don't know the details of the plays like how many times they evaluated the 2nd WR was not doing his job vs how many times a DT or S is not doing his job this past season.

[notacon]

That is what I’ve been preaching as to why Kelce beat us. Just one of Milano or Bernard were healthy, we would have beaten them…and then Baltimore. ****ing sucks.

Maybe.


Milano has been beat by Kelce LOTS of times. Bernard has played against the Chiefs only once, this season in week #14 win and it was his worst game of the season (graded #28 of 30 by Joe B.). Yes, I agree with you that the injuries hampered the Bills a LOT for that game, but, despite the challenges, they were in a PERFECT POSITION to win that game at the 2 min. mark.


I think the main reason the Chiefs beat us is because when giving the golden opportunity to win the game, Josh Allen screwed the pooch. (or at least did not rise to the occasion like Mahomes does so many times at the most critical moments).