The Bills Are Blessed with One of a Only a Handful of the Rare Elite QB in the NFL

[notacon]

With the recent movement of Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett...all 1st round picks from just the past few years, the reality of just how rare and difficult it is to draft an above average starter much less an elite QB is glaringly evident.

For fun I went though every QB drafted in the 1st round since 2014, and rated their status as of today.


<tbody>
Year
Pick
Player
Team
Staus


2023
1
Bryce Young
Carolina
Uneven first year



2
C.J. Stroud
Houston
Budding star 1st year



4
Anthony Richardson
Indy
Incomplete Injured









2022
1
Kenny Picket
Pittsburgh
Probable bust - not with drafting team









2021
1
Trevor Lawrence
JAX
Above averge starter



2
Zach Wilson
NYJ
Bust



3
Trey Lance
San Fran
Probable bust - not with drafting team



11
Justin Fields
Chicago
Probable bust - not with drafting team



15
Mac Jones
NE
Probable bust - not with drafting team









2020
1

Joe Burrow
Cincy
Elite Superstar



5
Tua Tagovailoa
Miami
Above averge starter



6
Justin Herbert
LAC
Above averge starter



26
Jordan Love
Green Bay
Above averge starter









2019
1
Kyler Murray
Arizona
Below average starter



6
Daniel Jones
NYG
Below average starter



15
Dwayne Haskins
Washinton
Bust









2018
1
Baker Mayfield
Cleveland
Uneven - possible average starter



3
Sam Darnold
NYJ
Bust - average backup



7

Josh Allen
Buffalo
Elite Superstar



10
Josh Rosen
Arizona
Bust



32

Lamar Jackson
Baltimore
Elite Superstar









2017
2
Mitchell Trubisky
Chicago
Bust - average backup



10

Patrick Mahomes
KC
Elite Superstar



12
Deshaun Watson
Houston
Below average starter









2016
1
Jared Goff
LAR
Above average starter



2
Carson Wentz
Philly
Bust - average backup



26
Paxton Lynch
Denver
Bust









2015
1
Jamies Winston
Tampa Bay
Bust - average backup



2
Marcus Mariota
Tennessee
Bust - average backup









2014
3
Blake Bortles
LAX
Bust



22
Johnny Manziel
Cleveland
Bust



32
Teddy Bridegwater
Minnesota
Bust - average backup

</tbody>


Excluding 2023 picks, that's 29 QB's drafted in the first round.


My count is...

4 - Elite Superstars
5 - above average starters
3 - below average starters
1 - uneven - possible average starter
4 - probable Bust - not with drafting team
6 - Bust - average backup
6 - Bust - undeniably so

Only 13.7% of the 29 are "elite superstars"

31% are either elite or above average starter

55% are a bona-fide Bust, probable Bust or Bust and average backup.

Only ONE of the "elite superstar" or "above average starters" has actually won a Super Bowl.

Sometimes it pays to look at the situation from 10,000 feet. We are all disappointed that the Bills have not even gotten to a Super Bowl in 30 years, but, man, we are better off than the overwhelming majority of the NFL teams who are scrambling in the dark, searching desperately for what we already have.<style>table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";}tr {mso-height-source:auto;}col {mso-width-source:auto;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:black; font-size:11.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Verdana, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;}.xl65 {text-align:center;}.xl66 {text-align:center; border:.5pt solid windowtext;}.xl67 {border:.5pt solid windowtext;}.xl68 {font-weight:700; border:.5pt solid windowtext;}.xl69 {font-weight:700; text-align:center; border:.5pt solid windowtext;}</style>

[Kenny]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.

[TacklingDummy]

Now imagine Mahomes on the Bills and Allen on the Chiefs.

Would the Chiefs be just as good with Allen?

Would the Bills be just as good with Mahomes?

[Goobylal]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.

Give me Reid or Taylor as OCs anyday and twice on Sundays.

[notacon]

Now imagine Mahomes on the Bills and Allen on the Chiefs.

Would the Chiefs be just as good with Allen?

Would the Bills be just as good with Mahomes?


We've spent a LOT of posts on that subject (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265108-DIFFERENCE-IN-THE-BILL-S-AND-CHEIFS-very-simple).

I do not think (at this point in time) there is any question, and I backed up my premise with a plethora of facts and evidence that....

If Mahomes was on the Bills (since 2017), they would have two or three SB wins.

If Josh Allen was on the Chiefs (since 2018), they woulds not have any.

But that's not the point of this thread and that horse that has been beaten to a bloody death....no need to rehash the same arguments.

I disagree with Kenny, "there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows."

There is no question that there are four QB's drafted since 2014 that I deemed "Elite Superstar".

As I have posted before with a LOT of detail (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265108-DIFFERENCE-IN-THE-BILL-S-AND-CHEIFS-very-simple?p=5087494&viewfull=1#post5087494), The Athletic ranks QB's every year and out them into Tiers. This is not the opinion of journalists but rather the well informed expert opinion of current NFL professionals.....NFL coaches, GM's, coordinators, talent evaluators and QB coaches that are "granted anonymity to share unvarnished evaluations" to place each starting QB into "Tiers".

Instead of using the word "elite" they use "Tier 1". They define that as...

"Tier 1 - A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game."

2023 Tiers, reflecting the 2022 season had FIVE QB's....

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Rodgers
Herbert

Slightly different than my four "elite" (drafted since 2014) but my observation includes 2023 season. It will be interesting to see what their Tiers are when they publish in July.

My list was only QB's drafted since 2014. I include Lamar Jackson in "elite" because he raised the level of his play in 2023. Conversely, I believe that Herbert took a step back last year.

It remains to be seen if Rodgers maintains his "elite" status. I suspect he will.

Josh Allen took three years to climb into Tier 1 territory.
2023 – JA got 44 Tier 1 votes and 6 Tier 2.
2022 – JA’s first year obtaining Tier 1 status his voting average was 1.22 for Tier 1 (they do not give vote totals every year)
2021 – JA got 20 Tier 1 votes and 30 Tier 2. He was deemed a “Tier 2” that year.
2020 – JA got 4 Tier 2 votes, 40 Tier 3 and 6 Tier 4. He was deemed a “Tier 3” QB.
2019 – JA received 18 Tier 3 votes, 36 Tier 4 and 1 Tier 5. He was deemed a “Tier 4” QB.


He is unquestionably an "elite" QB. And I am grateful that the Bils have him and will have him for years to come.

[Forward_Lateral]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.
SO, you think Burrow is elite, but not Josh?

OK.

- - - Updated - - -

Nota,

This thread is going to bring out the stupidest and most idiotic of this site.

[Woodman]

SO, you think Burrow is elite, but not Josh?

OK.

- - - Updated - - -

Nota,

This thread is going to bring out the stupidest and most idiotic of this site.

Beat me to it .... sorry Kenny Burrow is very good ......... but is much much less without his insane level of WR quality that he's surrounded by.

Take away Higgins bye bye Burrow ...... take away Chase bye bye Burrow.

Send those two to Buffalo hello MVP Super Bowl Josh Allen.

Burrow needless to say provides no threat with his legs.

[notacon]

SO, you think Burrow is elite, but not Josh?

OK.

- - - Updated - - -

Nota,

This thread is going to bring out the stupidest and most idiotic of this site.

Yeah...there is that chance for sure.

But, after seeing the movement of QB recently with well over half of NFL team desperately trying to find "their guy" with both the 2021 and 2022 draft class being dismally poor, it struck me on how blessed the Bills are.

With the realization that Josh Allen was never sure thing (if there are any "sure things"...I doubt it) it felt like the right time for the 10,000 ft view.

If one seriously looks at every teams QB situation there are not that many that are content for today and, especially the long run.

[OpIv37]

Lawrence, Stroud and Love may end up in the Elite category soon.

But, did you really need all that to prove that it’s hard to draft a QB? It took us 20 years after Jim Kelly before we found Allen. Miami was about the same between Marino and Tua. Since Elway, the Broncos got a couple decent years out of Peyton and that’s it. Chicago has never had a good QB in the modern era.

[Novacane]

I might be unpopular for saying this, but there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows.
.
Jackson looks great in the regular season because his athleticism allows him to feast on bad and average defenses, but he can't elevate himself or the others around him when it matters.

Josh has shown elite traits from time to time and there are times where he does things even Mahomes could only dream of doing. But he's just not consistent enough.

Josh lacks something only Mahomes has but Josh is still an elite QB. 29 or 30 other teams would trade their current QB for JA in a heartbeat.

[Novacane]

Beat me to it .... sorry Kenny Burrow is very good ......... but is much much less without his insane level of WR quality that he's surrounded by.

Take away Higgins bye bye Burrow ...... take away Chase bye bye Burrow.

Send those two to Buffalo hello MVP Super Bowl Josh Allen.

Burrow needless to say provides no threat with his legs.



Availability factors into elite as well. Burrow has missed large parts in 2 of his 4 seasons. You want to tell me Mahomes is elite and Josh isn't I'll politely disagree. Tell me Burrow is elite and Josh isn't? Get the **** out of here!

[Novacane]

Lawrence, Stroud and Love may end up in the Elite category soon.

But, did you really need all that to prove that it’s hard to draft a QB? It took us 20 years after Jim Kelly before we found Allen. Miami was about the same between Marino and Tua. Since Elway, the Broncos got a couple decent years out of Peyton and that’s it. Chicago has never had a good QB in the modern era.



Makes what GB has done unbelievable. If Love develops into an elite QB they should be cursed to 100 years of bad QB play when he's done.

[Typ0]

I don't see Allen as an Elite QB until he achieves Elite. Allen has Elite abilities but not an Elite mind for the game. He's really just an average guy being carried forward on exceptional physical abilities and athleticism.

Can he become Elite? Perhaps. But time is ticking and it doesn't look like McDermott has the mustard to help it happen and even if he does he's proven it is probably going to take longer than Josh Allen's career to get there.

If you want Josh Allen to be Elite he's going to need to be matched with a different head coach -- and that is just a chance of a possibility not any guarantee.

[Typ0]

13% isn't rare either...

[Goobylal]

I don't see Allen as an Elite QB until he achieves Elite. Allen has Elite abilities but not an Elite mind for the game. He's really just an average guy being carried forward on exceptional physical abilities and athleticism.

Can he become Elite? Perhaps. But time is ticking and it doesn't look like McDermott has the mustard to help it happen and even if he does he's proven it is probably going to take longer than Josh Allen's career to get there.

If you want Josh Allen to be Elite he's going to need to be matched with a different head coach -- and that is just a chance of a possibility not any guarantee.

LOL!

[jamze132]

Anyone who thinks Josh is not elite isn’t paying attention. It takes more than a ****ing QB to win a Super Bowl :rolleyes:

[Typ0]

Anyone who thinks Josh is not elite isn’t paying attention. It takes more than a ****ing QB to win a Super Bowl :rolleyes:

Then why is he all too often trying to do it all himself?

[jamze132]

Then why is he all too often trying to do it all himself?

The Bills developed quite the running game after Brady took over. Down the stretch when every game matters, you put the ball into the hands of your best player, that being #17.

[notacon]

Availability factors into elite as well. Burrow has missed large parts in 2 of his 4 seasons. You want to tell me Mahomes is elite and Josh isn't I'll politely disagree. Tell me Burrow is elite and Josh isn't? Get the **** out of here!

Awesome observation.

Josh Allen has the longest streak of consecutive games of 99 without missing one because of injury.

He has only missed FOUR games in his whole career, due to injury between week 7 and 10 his rookie year in 2018 due to sprained right elbow. He was listed as "questionable" for that game and probably could have played.

The Bills came out on fire that day against the woefully bad Jets blowing them out 41-10. Barkley got the start and his first pass was a 47 yard completion to Robert Foster. The next play, Sean McCoy ran 28 yards for a TD, and the Bills led 7-0 after 49 seconds. They out gained the Jests...er....Jets the first quarter 186-1. No need to bring the promising rookie in.

Last game Josh Allen has missed because of injury was week 10, 2018 vs. those NYJ.

He is built like a brick ****house and plays like a bulldozer.

[notacon]

I don't see Allen as an Elite QB until he achieves Elite. Allen has Elite abilities but not an Elite mind for the game. He's really just an average guy being carried forward on exceptional physical abilities and athleticism.

Can he become Elite? Perhaps. But time is ticking and it doesn't look like McDermott has the mustard to help it happen and even if he does he's proven it is probably going to take longer than Josh Allen's career to get there.

If you want Josh Allen to be Elite he's going to need to be matched with a different head coach -- and that is just a chance of a possibility not any guarantee.
Then you have a badly warped definition of what an "elite QB" even means.

[Typ0]

Then you have a badly warped definition of what an "elite QB" even means.

badly warped == different from notty.

[Typ0]

The Bills developed quite the running game after Brady took over. Down the stretch when every game matters, you put the ball into the hands of your best player, that being #17.

That is how our guys see it too. Put the ball in Allen's hands and he will make some super human play that wins us the game.

He does it about 1/2 the time everyone bases their 'elite' status on his 1/2 successes.

But what about the failures? Look the other way.

Then send the field-goal team onto the field when you need a TD.

That certainly is putting the ball in his hands ....

Then go have some coffee because they have time they don't really need to plan and organize Uber Allen has it covered.

Nevermind you can see when the pressure is on the team pretty much always doesn't know what the **** to do.

Don't say "YOU" because I would be working it very differently.

[Gibby 2.0]

Now imagine Mahomes on the Bills and Allen on the Chiefs.

Would the Chiefs be just as good with Allen?

Would the Bills be just as good with Mahomes?

Josh Allen probably is just as successful in KC as Mahomes has been and Mahomes is just as successful as Allen has been in Buffalo. I will admit my bias, I firmly believe Josh is the better qb. The problem is the Chiefs are the better built and above all coached team.

[cas22]

We've spent a LOT of posts on that subject (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265108-DIFFERENCE-IN-THE-BILL-S-AND-CHEIFS-very-simple).

I do not think (at this point in time) there is any question, and I backed up my premise with a plethora of facts and evidence that....

If Mahomes was on the Bills (since 2017), they would have two or three SB wins.

If Josh Allen was on the Chiefs (since 2018), they woulds not have any.

But that's not the point of this thread and that horse that has been beaten to a bloody death....no need to rehash the same arguments.

I disagree with Kenny, "there's only 1 maybe 2 elite QBs in this league - Mahomes and maybe Burrows."

There is no question that there are four QB's drafted since 2014 that I deemed "Elite Superstar".

As I have posted before with a LOT of detail (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265108-DIFFERENCE-IN-THE-BILL-S-AND-CHEIFS-very-simple?p=5087494&viewfull=1#post5087494), The Athletic ranks QB's every year and out them into Tiers. This is not the opinion of journalists but rather the well informed expert opinion of current NFL professionals.....NFL coaches, GM's, coordinators, talent evaluators and QB coaches that are "granted anonymity to share unvarnished evaluations" to place each starting QB into "Tiers".

Instead of using the word "elite" they use "Tier 1". They define that as...

"Tier 1 - A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game."

2023 Tiers, reflecting the 2022 season had FIVE QB's....

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Rodgers
Herbert

Slightly different than my four "elite" (drafted since 2014) but my observation includes 2023 season. It will be interesting to see what their Tiers are when they publish in July.

My list was only QB's drafted since 2014. I include Lamar Jackson in "elite" because he raised the level of his play in 2023. Conversely, I believe that Herbert took a step back last year.

It remains to be seen if Rodgers maintains his "elite" status. I suspect he will.

Josh Allen took three years to climb into Tier 1 territory.
2023 – JA got 44 Tier 1 votes and 6 Tier 2.
2022 – JA’s first year obtaining Tier 1 status his voting average was 1.22 for Tier 1 (they do not give vote totals every year)
2021 – JA got 20 Tier 1 votes and 30 Tier 2. He was deemed a “Tier 2” that year.
2020 – JA got 4 Tier 2 votes, 40 Tier 3 and 6 Tier 4. He was deemed a “Tier 3” QB.
2019 – JA received 18 Tier 3 votes, 36 Tier 4 and 1 Tier 5. He was deemed a “Tier 4” QB.


He is unquestionably an "elite" QB. And I am grateful that the Bils have him and will have him for years to come.

you most definitely have never played the game and if you did you were not very good because you no nothing, Mahomes came into a perfect situation on a playoff caliber team and sat his whole 1st year under a head coach who was in his 2nd stint as a heade coach that made it to a superbowl but failed.

Allen came into a team with absolutely not 1 starter on the offense that was there in year 2 and was thrown into the fire..with a head coach that has never been a head coach anywhere.

no one has a clue as to how many superbowls KC would have if Allen went there and did exactly what Mahomes did, he might have won 4 he might have won zero, I do know if Patrick would have became a Bill we still would be right where were at, they are 2 entirely different system KCs vs, Buff's. KC runs a west coast offense where the Bills run a offense that Daboll installed that rely's on the QB's ability to score with his legs, Mahomes isn't even close to Allens caliber when it comes to running with the football, Allen had 15 tds on 534 yards rushing the football on 111 attempts, if Mahomes ran that much he would be on injured reserve's..Mahomes had 389 yards rushing on 79 rush's with 0 tds.. Mahomes runs when he has to, Allens ability is installed in the system.

KC runs many screen plays, Buffalo runs maybe 2 wr screens that look pretty gruesome,,

plus KC won a superbowl this year wasn't because Mahomes was out of site with his play, they won because they played complimentary football. yes Mahomes came thruogh when needed in the playoffs but so did the defense, our defense has never came through, we score 35 point but give up 42 . thats not on Allen, Allen has played more than good enough to take A TEAM to win a Superbowl, the team he has been on has yet to play a playoff game when the team played complimentary Football...

[OpIv37]

Makes what GB has done unbelievable. If Love develops into an elite QB they should be cursed to 100 years of bad QB play when he's done.

This really is true. It’s insane.

But one thing about both Love and Rodgers: GB sat them on the bench and made them watch elite QB’s for several years before making them starters. That had to help. But most teams aren’t willing to do that anymore because a) if you’re drafting a potential elite QB, it’s probably because you had a bad season due to not having any QB options and b) QB contracts are becoming so high that you almost have to win a title on a QB’s rookie deal. After he gets paid, there’s no cap to put a team around him.

The economics of the game speaker it hard to sit a top QB prospect for 2 years.

[Goobylal]

Green Bay got lucky (assuming Love is the real deal). Three different regimes (potentially) hit on QBs.

[cas22]

This really is true. It’s insane.

But one thing about both Love and Rodgers: GB sat them on the bench and made them watch elite QB’s for several years before making them starters. That had to help. But most teams aren’t willing to do that anymore because a) if you’re drafting a potential elite QB, it’s probably because you had a bad season due to not having any QB options and b) QB contracts are becoming so high that you almost have to win a title on a QB’s rookie deal. After he gets paid, there’s no cap to put a team around him.

The economics of the game speaker it hard to sit a top QB prospect for 2 years.

ya'll are too young to remember when green bay struggled from 1968 to 1995 they won 1 division title... Farve was traded to GB in 1992... but it does show you the right way to keep a good QB on a team, you don't wait till you need a QB yet now with the CAP situation its hard to draft a QB early and sit him for 2 or 3 years with no production.

I think a team should bring in a young QB every year weather by draft free agent what ever, if he develops you trade him and do it again.

[EDS]

I think Josh is Elite, but if people think it is the coaching staff that is the difference between the results the Bills have had over the past several years versus what the Chiefs have accomplished then I think that is a slam dunk case for the Bills needing to find new coaches. Particularly since it is so hard to find an elite quarterback.

Ownership needs to do everything in its power to maximize championship opportunities and upgrading coaching seems like the low hanging fruit.

[notacon]

you most definitely have never played the game and if you did you were not very good because you no nothing, Mahomes came into a perfect situation on a playoff caliber team and sat his whole 1st year under a head coach who was in his 2nd stint as a heade coach that made it to a superbowl but failed.

Allen came into a team with absolutely not 1 starter on the offense that was there in year 2 and was thrown into the fire..with a head coach that has never been a head coach anywhere.

no one has a clue as to how many superbowls KC would have if Allen went there and did exactly what Mahomes did, he might have won 4 he might have won zero, I do know if Patrick would have became a Bill we still would be right where were at, they are 2 entirely different system KCs vs, Buff's. KC runs a west coast offense where the Bills run a offense that Daboll installed that rely's on the QB's ability to score with his legs, Mahomes isn't even close to Allens caliber when it comes to running with the football, Allen had 15 tds on 534 yards rushing the football on 111 attempts, if Mahomes ran that much he would be on injured reserve's..Mahomes had 389 yards rushing on 79 rush's with 0 tds.. Mahomes runs when he has to, Allens ability is installed in the system.

KC runs many screen plays, Buffalo runs maybe 2 wr screens that look pretty gruesome,,

plus KC won a superbowl this year wasn't because Mahomes was out of site with his play, they won because they played complimentary football. yes Mahomes came thruogh when needed in the playoffs but so did the defense, our defense has never came through, we score 35 point but give up 42 . thats not on Allen, Allen has played more than good enough to take A TEAM to win a Superbowl, the team he has been on has yet to play a playoff game when the team played complimentary Football...

:rofl: :rofl: Jesus. I guess you know more than current NFL coaches, GM's scouts and other professionals. Whatever. Keep your head in the sand if you like.

Really interesting (and long) video podcast on Go Long, with Gerald "Smoke" Dixon (https://www.golongtd.com/p/go-long-show-uncut-smoke-dixon-on?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-24e9d533-2653-41a4-893a-57431dbb1107) who was employed by the Bills as a scout when they drafted Josh Allen. He was IN THE ROOM, while these evaluations were going on before the draft, on the day of the draft and afterwards.

He talks about how he evaluated ALL the QB's in the 2018 draft, and the interesting fact that Lamar Jackson was never considered by the Bills, and the mindset going into that draft was to PICK A QB, one of the four, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen or Rosen.

He stated the major issues (and why they had less a chance of becoming true "elite" QB's) with Mayfiled, Darnold and Rosen, (and recounts some of the discussions he had directly with Brandon Beane) while recognizing the rawness of Allen. Although THE biggest traits he saw from Josh was his extraordinary arm where he recounted that he "can still hear the fastball "whistle" off his throws", and even more importantly, Allen "mettle" in the pocket.

Josh's mindset in the pocket is rare indeed (and what Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen badly lacked). He just did not care and was never afraid of huge defensive players ready to pound on him. Josh is tough as nails.

He described it at (paraphrasing) "how a QB reacts when a cinder block is hurled into his face, and the ability to wait until it's inches away, move a little to the side and deliver the ball".

Yeah...Josh had those rare qualities that had several of the scouts "standing up on the tables and pounding their feet" to draft him.

BUT, he was undisciplined and raw, raw, raw. Josh thought he (and to some extent still does) could get out of any situation with his athleticism, which led him to poor decisions. Poor decisions that he STILL MAKES, albeit less and less (according the Dixon watching film).

Worse yet, Dixon describes Josh as "not living in the film room early in his career" as he did not take the mental part of the game seriously, again, thinking he could use his "backyard style" to be successful.

THAT is one of the reasons it took Josh several year to develop into an elite QB. And THAT is why Mahomes almost instantly WAS considered an "elite" QB, by REAL NFL PROFESSIONALS from as soon as he became starter.

The analysis from REAL NFL PROFESSIONALS was based on how the innate qualities the QB showed not the system he was in.

I already posted (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265108-DIFFERENCE-IN-THE-BILL-S-AND-CHEIFS-very-simple?p=5087494&viewfull=1#post5087494) how the REAL NFL PROFESSIONALS ranked Mahomes (as compared to Josh) in Tiers. Here it is again since you obviously are ignoring what the REAL experts say.

2023 had Mahomes getting ALL 50 votes placing him in Tier 1.
2022 he got 49 Tier 1 votes and one Tier 2.
2021 he got ALL 50 votes for Tier 1.
2020 he got ALL 50 votes for Tier 1.
2019 he got 48 votes for Tier 1 and 7 votes for Tier 2.

So, in all the FIVE season Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB for KC, he got 247 votes out of a possible 255 for Tier 1. A whopping 96.8%.

Josh Allen on the other hand, took three years to climb into Tier 1 territory.

2023 – JA got 44 Tier 1 votes and 6 Tier 2.
2022 – JA’s first year obtaining Tier 1 status his voting average was 1.22 for Tier 1 (they do not give vote totals every year)
2021 – JA got 20 Tier 1 votes and 30 Tier 2. He was deemed a “Tier 2” that year.
2020 – JA got 4 Tier 2 votes, 40 Tier 3 and 6 Tier 4. He was deemed a “Tier 3” QB.
2019 – JA received 18 Tier 3 votes, 36 Tier 4 and 1 Tier 5. He was deemed a “Tier 4” QB.

So, NFL professionals with all their expertise and experience, have made it crystal clear that Mahomes has been an ELITE TIER 1 QB since the day he became starter.

Josh Allen has steadily improved and now is consider a Tier 1 QB, but STILL behind Mahomes.


What NFL team have you ever played for????? What NFL team have you ever been a GM for....what NFL team have you ever been a coach, or scout for?!?!?


Please....just stop with the lame "you most definitely have never played the game and if you did you were not very good because you no nothing" bullcrap. I listen to the people that not only have "played the game" but are at the PINNACLE of the NFL Profession


These people have forgotten more about football than you will ever know.

[notacon]

This really is true. It’s insane.

But one thing about both Love and Rodgers: GB sat them on the bench and made them watch elite QB’s for several years before making them starters. That had to help. But most teams aren’t willing to do that anymore because a) if you’re drafting a potential elite QB, it’s probably because you had a bad season due to not having any QB options and b) QB contracts are becoming so high that you almost have to win a title on a QB’s rookie deal. After he gets paid, there’s no cap to put a team around him.

The economics of the game speaker it hard to sit a top QB prospect for 2 years.


Green Bay got lucky (assuming Love is the real deal). Three different regimes (potentially) hit on QBs.

"Green Bay got lucky"?!?!? It sure does not look that way.

As Opi points out "The economics of the game speaker [sic] it hard to sit a top QB prospect for 2 years" but Green Bay has not done it once, but TWICE.

Both times when they had a proven elite QB starting. Both times, they used a late first round pick that royally pissed off the incumbent superstar, not only bucking the usual use of a high 1st round pick either "because you had a bad season due to not having any QB options" or trading up (spending precious future draft capital).

Green Bay, after finishing 10-6 in 2004, with Farve ranked #5 in passing yards, drafted Rodgers at #24 in 2005.

Green Bay, after finishing 13-3 in 2019, with Rodgers ranking #11 in passing yards, but throwing for 26 TD, and only FOUR INT's, drafted Love at #26.

Buffalo, on the other hand, gave a MASTER CLASS in how to TOTALLY **** UP a draft AND drafting a QB in 2004, that had them looking like FOOLS when GB stealing Rodgers in 2005.

To remind everyone...

Bills had the #13 pick in 2004, and picked Lee Evans. The BEST QB CLASS in recent memory, where a SMART GM would have sold the house to move up to bag Rothlisberger, by moving ahead of them at #11 (to be fair we don't know how much they tried, or if it would have been possible....but, come on...if they had any kind of balls (which I strongly suspect of because of Ralph Wilson, who was a terrible owner), they could have gotten it done).

So, missing their chance, and settling for a pretty good WR, they COMPOUND the ****up and incredibility stupidly TRADE AWAY THEIR 2005 first round pick (along with their 2004 second round and fifth round picks) to move up to get JP Losman?!?!?!

The 2005 pick that Buffalo traded away for the bust Losman turned out to be #20....PRIME position to draft the sliding Aaron Rodgers.

Yeah....one team shows smarts with forward thinking, the other has their collective heads up their asses.

"Luck" had little to do with it.

[Goobylal]

"Green Bay got lucky"?!?!? It sure does not look that way.

As Opi points out "The economics of the game speaker [sic] it hard to sit a top QB prospect for 2 years" but Green Bay has not done it once, but TWICE.

Both times when they had a proven elite QB starting. Both times, they used a late first round pick that royally pissed off the incumbent superstar, not only bucking the usual use of a high 1st round pick either "because you had a bad season due to not having any QB options" or trading up (spending precious future draft capital).

Green Bay, after finishing 10-6 in 2004, with Farve ranked #5 in passing yards, drafted Rodgers at #24 in 2005.

Green Bay, after finishing 13-3 in 2019, with Rodgers ranking #11 in passing yards, but throwing for 26 TD, and only FOUR INT's, drafted Love at #26.

Buffalo, on the other hand, gave a MASTER CLASS in how to TOTALLY **** UP a draft AND drafting a QB in 2004, that had them looking like FOOLS when GB stealing Rodgers in 2005.

To remind everyone...

Bills had the #13 pick in 2004, and picked Lee Evans. The BEST QB CLASS in recent memory, where a SMART GM would have sold the house to move up to bag Rothlisberger, by moving ahead of them at #11 (to be fair we don't know how much they tried, or if it would have been possible....but, come on...if they had any kind of balls (which I strongly suspect of because of Ralph Wilson, who was a terrible owner), they could have gotten it done).

So, missing their chance, and settling for a pretty good WR, they COMPOUND the ****up and incredibility stupidly TRADE AWAY THEIR 2005 first round pick (along with their 2004 second round and fifth round picks) to move up to get JP Losman?!?!?!

The 2005 pick that Buffalo traded away for the bust Losman turned out to be #20....PRIME position to draft the sliding Aaron Rodgers.

Yeah....one team shows smarts with forward thinking, the other has their collective heads up their asses.

"Luck" had little to do with it.

LOL! It was total luck. All 3 QBs were taken by different GM/HC combos 13+ years apart. Do you think Ron Wolf/Mike Holmgren left their "how to draft/develop a QB" manual in the Green Bay HQ?

And if it were as easy as drafting a QB, having him sit behind a HOF'er and becoming a HOF'er himself, Jimmy G would be one. But let's wait to see where Love goes from here first.

[Goobylal]

I think Josh is Elite, but if people think it is the coaching staff that is the difference between the results the Bills have had over the past several years versus what the Chiefs have accomplished then I think that is a slam dunk case for the Bills needing to find new coaches. Particularly since it is so hard to find an elite quarterback.

Ownership needs to do everything in its power to maximize championship opportunities and upgrading coaching seems like the low hanging fruit.

I agree but it's easier said than done. If McDermott fails to get the Bills to the SB in the next couple years, and certainly if they miss the playoffs, they'll have to find someone else.

[notacon]

LOL! It was total luck. All 3 QBs were taken by different GM/HC combos 13+ years apart. Do you think Ron Wolf/Mike Holmgren left their "how to draft/develop a QB" manual in the Green Bay HQ?

And if it were as easy as drafting a QB, having him sit behind a HOF'er and becoming a HOF'er himself, Jimmy G would be one. But let's wait to see where Love goes from here first.

LOL! No it was NOT "total luck"

Just like the Bills drafting and developing Josh Allen was NOT "total luck" .

How silly.

[Goobylal]

LOL! No it was NOT "total luck"

Just like the Bills drafting and developing Josh Allen was NOT "total luck" .

How silly.

This is just dumb. Getting a franchise QB is luck. Just look at how many QBs bust. Getting 2 consecutively is even greater luck. How many teams have done that? And 3 is unprecedented. Especially when Rodgers and Love were taken at the end of round 1, meaning almost every team passed on them. There's no magic formula Green Bay has.

[Historian]

Getting a franchise QB is luck. Just look at how many QBs bust. Getting 2 consecutively is even greater luck. How many teams have done that? And 3 is unprecedented. Especially when Rodgers and Love were taken at the end of round 1, meaning almost every team passed on them.
Ehhhhh....it can partially be luck. I mean, how you finish the year before kind of determines what position you sit in on draft day.

It's hard to measure what a guy has in his heart.

Rodgers and Love had the benefit of being able to sit and learn, while the Darnolds and the Mayfields were thrown to the wolves.

I think of the Allen drafting.

Everyone wanted a bigger name, from a bigger school, with better stats.

Clearly the Bills did their homework on Allen, despite their detractors saying that his accuracy was bad and couldn't be coached out of him.

I think a lot of work goes into it, and to dismiss it as "luck" is a bit too simplistic.

[Woodman]

Ownership needs to do everything in its power to maximize championship opportunities and upgrading coaching seems like the low hanging fruit.

Right on!

[notacon]

This is just dumb. Getting a franchise QB is luck. Just look at how many QBs bust. Getting 2 consecutively is even greater luck. How many teams have done that? And 3 is unprecedented. Especially when Rodgers and Love were taken at the end of round 1, meaning almost every team passed on them. There's no magic formula Green Bay has.


You are too close minded to see reality.

"How many teams have done that?" in getting two consecutive franchise QB's in a row actually proves the point that it's not all "luck" for Green Bay.

In fact, the way the Packers did it, both times, selecting a QB late in the first round while having a franchise QB still active and on the roster, shows institutional expertise.

Contra the Bills, who's mostly (broken p only by Jim Kelly...who they did everything to **** that up by letting him play in the USFL instead of the Bills after they drafted him...besides the fact that they did not even use their first 1st round pick on him that year) to have institutional FAILURE when it comes to QB's....UNTIL RALPH WILSON NO LONGER OWNER THE TEAM.

Another example of a team's institutional failure with QB's is Chicago.

No, what is "luck" is selecting Tom Brady with the 199th pick and Brock Purdy with the last pick. THAT is "luck"

[notacon]

Ehhhhh....it can partially be luck. I mean, how you finish the year before kind of determines what position you sit in on draft day.

It's hard to measure what a guy has in his heart.

Rodgers and Love had the benefit of being able to sit and learn, while the Darnolds and the Mayfields were thrown to the wolves.

I think of the Allen drafting.

Everyone wanted a bigger name, from a bigger school, with better stats.

Clearly the Bills did their homework on Allen, despite their detractors saying that his accuracy was bad and couldn't be coached out of him.

I think a lot of work goes into it, and to dismiss it as "luck" is a bit too simplistic.

Yep. As I pointed pout, the Packers went WELL OUTSIDE of the usual custom of a team having a ****ty QB after a ****ty year, that gave them a high enough draft position to go after one of the best prospects.

GB was coming off very good years (record wise) WINNING THEIR DIVISION with a future HOF QB (Farve) and a probable future HOF QB (Rodgers) on the roster and still, more or less, in their prime....and spent that 1st round pick, pissing off their franchise QB, which allowed them time to develop that QB at a pace that was beneficial to both the team AND the QB.

I've heard Ryan Leaf talk about this many times on GMFB. One of the main reasons he was a bust was being drafted so high, being seen as the teams' savior, and thrown to the wolves when he was not even close to ready.

[Goobylal]

Ehhhhh....it can partially be luck. I mean, how you finish the year before kind of determines what position you sit in on draft day.

It's hard to measure what a guy has in his heart.

Rodgers and Love had the benefit of being able to sit and learn, while the Darnolds and the Mayfields were thrown to the wolves.

I think of the Allen drafting.

Everyone wanted a bigger name, from a bigger school, with better stats.

Clearly the Bills did their homework on Allen, despite their detractors saying that his accuracy was bad and couldn't be coached out of him.

I think a lot of work goes into it, and to dismiss it as "luck" is a bit too simplistic.

Josh was also thrown to the wolves on one of the worst offenses I've ever seen the Bills field. He was the 3rd QB taken and I'd say that the Bills landing him was "partial luck" because even though they made a concerted effort to move up to take him, they still had to sweat-out picks 1-6 since he was being talked about as the 1st overall pick and there were 4 teams in need of QBs.

Getting a franchise QB period is luck, even if you have the first overall, much less hitting on QBs at the end of first round like Green Bay did. Just look at last year. I mean, did anyone see CJ Stroud being a stud? He came from one of the worst major college programs for NFL QB success and he bombed the S2, considered the best test for QB success in the NFL. Would you say he had "heart" before he was drafted? Would you say Rodgers did? How do you measure it?

Now if the same regime in Green Bay had drafted all 3 QBs, I'd say it was less less luck and more a blueprint. But they didn't have a single person remaining (meaning front office/GM, coaches or scouts) from the time when Favre was traded for or when Rodgers was drafted because over a dozen years had passed in both instances. And again Rodgers and Love were drafted at spots 24 and 26 overall respectively, allowing for almost any team to take them before Green Bay did, with several teams looking for QBs those years.

Having a QB sit for a few years isn't a guarantee of anything and in this day and age, it's not feasible. Back some 20 years ago when you could take years to develop a QB it made more sense, but again, it rarely happened that a franchise QB was succeeded by another one, much less another one after that.


You are too close minded to see reality.

"How many teams have done that?" in getting two consecutive franchise QB's in a row actually proves the point that it's not all "luck" for Green Bay.

In fact, the way the Packers did it, both times, selecting a QB late in the first round while having a franchise QB still active and on the roster, shows institutional expertise.

Contra the Bills, who's mostly (broken p only by Jim Kelly...who they did everything to **** that up by letting him play in the USFL instead of the Bills after they drafted him...besides the fact that they did not even use their first 1st round pick on him that year) to have institutional FAILURE when it comes to QB's....UNTIL RALPH WILSON NO LONGER OWNER THE TEAM.

Another example of a team's institutional failure with QB's is Chicago.

No, what is "luck" is selecting Tom Brady with the 199th pick and Brock Purdy with the last pick. THAT is "luck"

So it's "institutional success"? All that's needed is the Green Bay name and voila, they automatically draft franchise QBs from now on? LOL!

[YardRat]

Allen has elite skills and maybe even intangibles, but his mental grasp of the game is borderline average, being generous. Plus he has anxiety issues he needs to overcome.

Burrows isn't anywhere in Josh's league physically, but he is slightly better in intangibles and a light year above mentally. That's why he's beaten a better team on the road, won a conference championship and competed for a Super Bowl.

I wouldn't trade Josh for any other QB in the league, bar none, but if I had to bet money I would take Burrows getting to another SB before Josh does.

[Goobylal]

Allen has elite skills and maybe even intangibles, but his mental grasp of the game is borderline average, being generous. Plus he has anxiety issues he needs to overcome.

Burrows isn't anywhere in Josh's league physically, but he is slightly better in intangibles and a light year above mentally. That's why he's beaten a better team on the road, won a conference championship and competed for a Super Bowl.

I wouldn't trade Josh for any other QB in the league, bar none, but if I had to bet money I would take Burrows getting to another SB before Josh does.

Would you trade the supporting cast (players and coaches) around Josh for Burrow's?

[Historian]

Plus he has anxiety issues he needs to overcome.



C'mon man.

You don't really believe that, do you?

[Forward_Lateral]

C'mon man.

You don't really believe that, do you?

I know there wasn't message boards back then, but did fans crap on Jim Kelly like they do Josh Allen?

[notacon]

Allen has elite skills and maybe even intangibles, but his mental grasp of the game is borderline average, being generous. Plus he has anxiety issues he needs to overcome.

Burrows isn't anywhere in Josh's league physically, but he is slightly better in intangibles and a light year above mentally. That's why he's beaten a better team on the road, won a conference championship and competed for a Super Bowl.

I wouldn't trade Josh for any other QB in the league, bar none, but if I had to bet money I would take Burrows getting to another SB before Josh does.

I disagree with the "anxiety issues". Ex-Bills scout Smoke Dixon says the opposite (https://www.golongtd.com/p/go-long-show-uncut-smoke-dixon-on?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-24e9d533-2653-41a4-893a-57431dbb1107)....with his "cinder block" (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265433-The-Bills-Are-Blessed-with-One-of-a-Only-a-Handful-of-the-Rare-Elite-QB-in-the-NFL?p=5093422&viewfull=1#post5093422) observation.

Although he did give some credence to the "mental grasp of the game is borderline average", but that was more from of observing that he did not put the work early in his career studying the game and not (at that time) being a film room rat. He admitted he does not know about his habits lately.

As I have been an persistent critic of the way Josh failed in the mental part of the game in the last 2 min of the KC loss, the title to the thread I started about that is spot on...."Requiem for the Bills - When will Josh Learn?? (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265007-Requiem-for-the-Bills-When-will-Josh-Learn?highlight=)"

Like you "I wouldn't trade Josh for any other QB in the league, bar none" but I would NOT "bet money" that "Burrows getting to another SB before Josh does.". Of course, I never bet money on football...so there's that.

[notacon]

Josh was also thrown to the wolves on one of the worst offenses I've ever seen the Bills field. He was the 3rd QB taken and I'd say that the Bills landing him was "partial luck" because even though they made a concerted effort to move up to take him, they still had to sweat-out picks 1-6 since he was being talked about as the 1st overall pick and there were 4 teams in need of QBs.

Getting a franchise QB period is luck, even if you have the first overall, much less hitting on QBs at the end of first round like Green Bay did. Just look at last year. I mean, did anyone see CJ Stroud being a stud? He came from one of the worst major college programs for NFL QB success and he bombed the S2, considered the best test for QB success in the NFL. Would you say he had "heart" before he was drafted? Would you say Rodgers did? How do you measure it?

Now if the same regime in Green Bay had drafted all 3 QBs, I'd say it was less less luck and more a blueprint. But they didn't have a single person remaining (meaning front office/GM, coaches or scouts) from the time when Favre was traded for or when Rodgers was drafted because over a dozen years had passed in both instances. And again Rodgers and Love were drafted at spots 24 and 26 overall respectively, allowing for almost any team to take them before Green Bay did, with several teams looking for QBs those years.

Having a QB sit for a few years isn't a guarantee of anything and in this day and age, it's not feasible. Back some 20 years ago when you could take years to develop a QB it made more sense, but again, it rarely happened that a franchise QB was succeeded by another one, much less another one after that.



So it's "institutional success"? All that's needed is the Green Bay name and voila, they automatically draft franchise QBs from now on? LOL!

There is no doubt that there is SOME "luck" in getting a franchise QB. Although it's a lot less than you seem to attribute to it, and it's a LOT less than what one of the experts and first hand observer of being a NFL QB bust, Ryan Leaf has to say.

Ironically enough, according to Leaf, simply being drafted high in the first round in today's NFL put that player at a HUGE disadvantage as the pressure is UNBELIEVABLY and DESTRUCTIVELY counter to what you want to develop a franchise QB.

Your observations of the kind of offense that Josh came into the Bills is mostly less of a factor (not to say that is not a factor) in assessing a QB's quality, at least according to NFL head coaches, NFL GM's, NFL scouts, NFL coordinators and NFL QB coaches that I have detailed with their QB Tiers evaluation.

As for my accurate observation of Green Bay's "institutional success", your lame dismissal of it as " All that's needed is the Green Bay name and voila, they automatically draft franchise QBs from now on? LOL!" shows extreme narrow mindedness and failing to see plain reality.

"Institutional success" is simply an accurate observation that the organization has developed and embraced a method of deciding WHEN and HOW to bring about continuing QB success. How the past decisions were made are PART of the ORGANIZATION which IS, in fact "institutional success"

The TOTAL OPPOSITE is what the Bills had to fall on. It was more "Institutional FAILURE". They literally had nothing to fall back on as how to succeed in transitioning the position (as players age and move on) so they mostly followed the path of failure.

I believe a very reasonable explanation for the success of Green Bay and the mostly failure of the Bills when it comes to QB's is the fact that Green Bay DOES NOT HAVE an individual owner as they have been a "publicly owned, nonprofit corporation since 1923 (https://www.packers.com/community/shareholders)"

NFL owners inevitability get involved with some of the most critical decisions, for better or worse (usually for worse). Almost all of them lack the necessary knowledge and experience to make decisions about football based on knowledge of experience with, you know...FOOTBALL!!!!

Today's NFL owners made their fortunes (https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/52598/how-owners-all-32-nfl-teams-made-their-money) usually in business of some sort, co-foundling Home Depot, hedge fund managers, natural gas and fracking, CEO of Flying J truck stops, Texas oilman, Ford Motor Company heir, "cogeneration power plant company" owner (selling to to Enron to become rich), heating and air conditioning, car bumpers manufacturing, catering & real estate, real estate and tax shelters shyster, packaging materials, car dealerships, heir to the Johnson & Johnson company, movie theater chain, building shopping malls, co-founding Microsoft, Wal-Mart heir, marketing and advertising and of course, inheriting wealth (and the team) from a rich parent

Owners make decisions based on their experience and expertise. It's not usually football. The smart ones (sometimes) hire good football people and give them the freedom to make decisions based on what is best for the team with football expertise in mind. Mr Pegula has (after stumbling a bit the first few years) has mostly followed this method to extremely good success.

So, YES. Green Bay has YEARS and YEARS of "institutional" knowledge, experience and expertise grounded in FOOTBALL. NFL owners have "institutional" knowledge, experience and expertise on how to make money with various business as detailed above.

Owners are impatient and make sometimes rash decisions not based on what is the smartest move for football success.

So, YES. Green Bay DOES HAVE "institutional success" grounded and passed on by years of putting football minds in control and not owners that have made money in other ventures.