The Family’s Annual Bills Mock Draft — 2024 Version

[TheConsigliere]

We only do the Bills picks and we use multiple mock draft sites to determine availability.


We have the Bills first 3 draft picks set — remember NO 3rd pick currently — and will reveal them one by one.


With the Bills 1st round pick (28th overall) the Bills with NO trade draft…


1. https://walterfootball.com/college/Oregon_logo.gif (https://walterfootball.com/college/Oregon_logo.gif) Jackson Powers-Johnson (https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2024jpowersjohnson.php), C, Oregon

Height: 6-3. Weight: 334.
Projected 40 Time: 5.30.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.


3/9/24: It took some time over an odd journey, but eventually Powers-Johnson turned himself into an impactful player for the Ducks. Back in 2021, he was a backup who played defensive line in an emergency role to close out that season. He was back to being a backup in 2022, but took over as the starting center in 2023 and had a superb season. Powers-Johnson is a heavy center who looks like a safe pick to be a solid pro starter. He is a strong run blocker and reliable in pass protection.


https://walterfootball.com/draft2024C.php



We considered Duke’s Barton however he plays with short arms, has moved around the OL and is lighter than Jackson P-J. Jackson is a true Center and a much safer bet to be plugged in and start at the position from day one for the long time.

We just did not see a WR fall to the Bills at 28th overall that would be worth a 1st round pick that could replace Diggs ever as the #1 WR. Plenty of #2 WRs there but we have a couple already competing there and any WR drafted there would be 2nd or 3rd on the #2 WR depth chart in his rookie year. The Bills are in a win now mode so that doesn’t work for their first pick of the draft.

[TheConsigliere]

We have 7 WRs being drafted in the 1st round.


Due to Keon Coleman’s slow 40 speed, We have him dropping out of the first around and available in the middle of the 2nd round.


The issue is whether the Bills roll dice for the larger but slow WR to fall to their pick at #60 or trade up a little to nab him.

The Bills could combine their 2nd round pick with one of their two 4th round picks and perhaps even one of their 5th round picks to move up within the 2nd round to draft Coleman.


There is a lot of doubt in our minds whether Coleman could ever be a #1 WR in the NFL. If he did, it would take at least 2 if not 3 years.


It may make more sense to draft a true 1DT with this 2nd round pick like Texas’ Sweat or LSU’s Jefferson who should be there when the Bills pick.


We have to think about this some more

[Oaf]

DOWN for a stud IOL + Keon Coleman trade up.

IDL is not a bad move either, with slight preference to this first scenario.

[TheConsigliere]

DOWN for a stud IOL + Keon Coleman trade up.

IDL is not a bad move either, with slight preference to this first scenario.

Who do you like among the 1DTs that could take on 2 blockers, stuff the run, get some pressure up the middle on the QB when not double teamed and Make Ed Oliver College Great Again ?

[TheConsigliere]

After further research for the Bills 2nd round draft pick, the consensus is that FSU’s Keon Coleman is just too slow to get separation in the NFL and thus not worth the Bills drafting in the 2nd round.

When it comes to a true 1DT, it appears that with Sweat’s weight ballooning to 366 lbs, he has been tagged with the lazy label and dropping like a stone down team’s draft boards.

A 1DT run stopper who can free up Ed Oliver to be the dominant inside force as he was in college by taking up two blockers would really take our D to the next level.

As such, with the 60th pick of the NFL Draft the bills draft….



https://walterfootball.com/college/LSU_logo.gifJordan Jefferson*, DT, LSU

Height: 6-2. Weight: 323.
Projected 40 Time: 5.10.
Projected Round (2024): 2-3.



3/16/24: The big and strong nose tackle Jefferson impressed team evaluators with his play in 2023. The Navarre, Florida product was a tough run defender in the middle of the defensive line for the Tigers. He collected 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks and pass defended in 2023. As junior, he recorded three sacks and 31 tackles. Jefferson has good size for the NFL and could be a physical interior defender as a pro. He had a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024DT.php


Jefferson is a Junior and need not start for the Bills in 2024. He will join the DT rotation and take over the starting role in 2025.

[TheConsigliere]

No one excited about Jefferson?

[Forward_Lateral]

No one excited about Jefferson?

I am

He's movin on up

[YardRat]

lol

[Turf]

I am

He's movin on up

To the Eastside

[TheConsigliere]

I am

He's movin on up

Well I hope he finally gets a piece of the P-I-E...


Well we're movin' on up, to the east side
To a deluxe apartment in the sky
Movin on up
To the east side (https://genius.com/1601211/Janet-dubois-movin-on-up-the-jeffersons-theme-song/Well-were-movin-on-up-to-the-east-side-to-a-deluxe-apartment-in-the-sky-movin-on-up-to-the-east-side)
We finally got a piece of the pie
Fish don't fry in the kitchen;
Beans don't burn on the grill (https://genius.com/8893502/Janet-dubois-movin-on-up-the-jeffersons-theme-song/Fish-dont-fry-in-the-kitchen-beans-dont-burn-on-the-grill)
Took a whole lotta tryin'
Just to get up that hill (https://genius.com/1601226/Janet-dubois-movin-on-up-the-jeffersons-theme-song/Took-a-whole-lotta-tryin-just-to-get-up-that-hill)
Now we're up in the big leagues
Gettin' our turn at bat (https://genius.com/1601214/Janet-dubois-movin-on-up-the-jeffersons-theme-song/Now-were-up-in-the-big-leagues-gettin-our-turn-at-bat)
As long as we live, it's you and me baby
There ain't nothin wrong with that
Well we're movin on up
To the east side
To a deluxe apartment in the sky (https://genius.com/1601222/Janet-dubois-movin-on-up-the-jeffersons-theme-song/Well-were-movin-on-up-to-the-east-side-to-a-deluxe-apartment-in-the-sky)
Movin on up
To the east side
We finally got a piece of the pie

[TheConsigliere]

The Bills have NO 3rd round draft pick.

They do have two 4th round draft picks, three 5th round draft picks, three 6th round picks and one 7th round pick.


This is already a strong roster so we don’t see anyone drafted in the 5th, 6th and 7th round making the team.


If there were trading partners, we would love to convert all those picks into a late 3rd round pick and a late 4th round pick.

Perhaps keep the 7th rounder for a flyer.


We will proceed on the basis of the Bills having the following draft picks remaining after their first two draft picks listed above:

(a) a late 3rd round draft pick;
(b) a late 4th round draft pick; and
(c) their existing 7th round pick.


Fair enough?

[Canadian'eh!]

After further research for the Bills 2nd round draft pick, the consensus is that FSU’s Keon Coleman is just too slow to get separation in the NFL and thus not worth the Bills drafting in the 2nd round.

When it comes to a true 1DT, it appears that with Sweat’s weight ballooning to 366 lbs, he has been tagged with the lazy label and dropping like a stone down team’s draft boards.

A 1DT run stopper who can free up Ed Oliver to be the dominant inside force as he was in college by taking up two blockers would really take our D to the next level.

As such, with the 60th pick of the NFL Draft the bills draft….



https://walterfootball.com/college/LSU_logo.gifJordan Jefferson*, DT, LSU

Height: 6-2. Weight: 323.
Projected 40 Time: 5.10.
Projected Round (2024): 2-3.



3/16/24: The big and strong nose tackle Jefferson impressed team evaluators with his play in 2023. The Navarre, Florida product was a tough run defender in the middle of the defensive line for the Tigers. He collected 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks and pass defended in 2023. As junior, he recorded three sacks and 31 tackles. Jefferson has good size for the NFL and could be a physical interior defender as a pro. He had a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024DT.php


Jefferson is a Junior and need not start for the Bills in 2024. He will join the DT rotation and take over the starting role in 2025.

He’s a pretty big reach in round 2.

No WR early? D-

[TheConsigliere]

He’s a pretty big reach in round 2.

No WR early? D-

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

[Woodman]

To the Eastside

Easy Weezy. :D

[Woodman]

I like big butts I can not lie.

Woodman :hi5: Consigliere

[Bill Cody]

After further research for the Bills 2nd round draft pick, the consensus is that FSU’s Keon Coleman is just too slow to get separation in the NFL and thus not worth the Bills drafting in the 2nd round.

When it comes to a true 1DT, it appears that with Sweat’s weight ballooning to 366 lbs, he has been tagged with the lazy label and dropping like a stone down team’s draft boards.

A 1DT run stopper who can free up Ed Oliver to be the dominant inside force as he was in college by taking up two blockers would really take our D to the next level.

As such, with the 60th pick of the NFL Draft the bills draft….



https://walterfootball.com/college/LSU_logo.gifJordan Jefferson*, DT, LSU

Height: 6-2. Weight: 323.
Projected 40 Time: 5.10.
Projected Round (2024): 2-3.



3/16/24: The big and strong nose tackle Jefferson impressed team evaluators with his play in 2023. The Navarre, Florida product was a tough run defender in the middle of the defensive line for the Tigers. He collected 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks and pass defended in 2023. As junior, he recorded three sacks and 31 tackles. Jefferson has good size for the NFL and could be a physical interior defender as a pro. He had a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl.

https://walterfootball.com/draft2024DT.php


Jefferson is a Junior and need not start for the Bills in 2024. He will join the DT rotation and take over the starting role in 2025.

so this draft is no Sweat?:schmoll:

[Oaf]

Future at IOL and IDL is fine with me. If PM can win 2 SBs w his WR cast + Kelce, JA can win with ours + Kincaid/Knox

[TheConsigliere]

so this draft is no Sweat?:schmoll:

He was my first choice for a 1DT in the 2nd round but the fat bastard blew up to 366 lbs and the reports of his performance at that weight are NOT good.

You think we should draft him and Weight Watcher him?

Seems risky.

- - - Updated - - -


Future at IOL and IDL is fine with me. If PM can win 2 SBs w his WR cast + Kelce, JA can win with ours + Kincaid/Knox

I think there is a need for Diggs replacement in 2025 or beyond but I just don't see that guy when we draft.

[notacon]

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?
I doubt that very much.

In the history (SB Era) of the NFL there has been seven WR's selected in the first round only ONCE....2004 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2004). That was the year that Larry Fitzgerald went #3 overall and the Bills picked Lee Evans #13.

There have been only eight years that have been SIX WR's selected in the first round. Not surprisingly all but one (1988) were since 2001 as the rules started to encourage passing games.


1988 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/1988)
2001 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2001)
2005 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2005)
2007 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2007)
2009 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2009)
2015 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2015)
2020 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2020)
2022 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2022)


Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

With that said, (at least) the past two years ESPN's Matt Miller has published a list of positions and players that actually deserve a "First Round Grade". As one can guess, it's not close to 32. It's widely understood that usually it's around 15 to 20.

For 2024 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps) (2023 is here (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35180722/2023-nfl-draft-every-prospect-first-round-grade-plus-comps-including-top-quarterbacks-edge-rushers-wide-receivers-round-1)) he lists 18. Broken down by position...

QB - 3
RB - 0
WR - 5
TE - 1
OT - 4
IOL - O
EDGE - 2
DT - 1
LB - 0
CB - 2
S - 0

For WR he lists (including his overall rank..(this varies by analyst)...

Marvin Harrison - 2
Rome Odunze - 3
Malik Nabers - 4
Brian Thomas - 17
Adonai Mitchell - 18

These five are fairly universally given 1st round ranks. The Bills have no chance in hell of getting any of the top 3. No one knows if the next two (Thomas, Mitchell) are reachable via trade up. That's why I will be glued to the TV on Draft Day.


Some analysts rank others within the top 32 with these generally considered coming after the top 5 (I have included Scouts, Inc. overall ranking (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable/_/position/ovr) within the top 64 or through 2nd round)

Xavier Legette - 28
Ladd McConkey - 29
Xavier Worthy - 33
Keon Coleman - 37
Ricky Pearsall - 45
Troy Franklin - 52

It is not a stretch to believe the Bills could easily draft a "True #1 WR" and with the depth of this draft for WR's it may be almost considered probable that they do just that. QB's, EDGE rushers and OT are draft picks, along with WR. There are only so many that can be selected from the "premium positions".

As usual, WHO they pick is critical. The Bills talent evaluation team has their work cut out for them.

[Mad Max]

To the Eastside

To a deeeluxe apartment in the skyhihi

[TheConsigliere]

I doubt that very much.

In the history (SB Era) of the NFL there has been seven WR's selected in the first round only ONCE....2004 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2004). That was the year that Larry Fitzgerald went #3 overall and the Bills picked Lee Evans #13.

There have been only eight years that have been SIX WR's selected in the first round. Not surprisingly all but one (1988) were since 2001 as the rules started to encourage passing games.


1988 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/1988)
2001 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2001)
2005 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2005)
2007 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2007)
2009 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2009)
2015 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2015)
2020 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2020)
2022 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2022)


Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

With that said, (at least) the past two years ESPN's Matt Miller has published a list of positions and players that actually deserve a "First Round Grade". As one can guess, it's not close to 32. It's widely understood that usually it's around 15 to 20.

For 2024 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps) (2023 is here (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35180722/2023-nfl-draft-every-prospect-first-round-grade-plus-comps-including-top-quarterbacks-edge-rushers-wide-receivers-round-1)) he lists 18. Broken down by position...

QB - 3
RB - 0
WR - 5
TE - 1
OT - 4
IOL - O
EDGE - 2
DT - 1
LB - 0
CB - 2
S - 0

For WR he lists (including his overall rank..(this varies by analyst)...

Marvin Harrison - 2
Rome Odunze - 3
Malik Nabers - 4
Brian Thomas - 17
Adonai Mitchell - 18

These five are fairly universally given 1st round ranks. The Bills have no chance in hell of getting any of the top 3. No one knows if the next two (Thomas, Mitchell) are reachable via trade up. That's why I will be glued to the TV on Draft Day.


Some analysts rank others within the top 32 with these generally considered coming after the top 5 (I have included Scouts, Inc. overall ranking (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable/_/position/ovr) within the top 64 or through 2nd round)

Xavier Legette - 28
Ladd McConkey - 29
Xavier Worthy - 33
Keon Coleman - 37
Ricky Pearsall - 45
Troy Franklin - 52

It is not a stretch to believe the Bills could easily draft a "True #1 WR" and with the depth of this draft for WR's it may be almost considered probable that they do just that. QB's, EDGE rushers and OT are draft picks, along with WR. There are only so many that can be selected from the "premium positions".

As usual, WHO they pick is critical. The Bills talent evaluation team has their work cut out for them.

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.

[TheConsigliere]

WITH THE DIGGS TRADE -- PLEASE IGNORE THIS NOW OUTDATED MOCK

[notacon]

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.
Sorry, but the chances of "7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills (or anyone for that matter) draft at 28th." is specious at best.

There is a reason why, even during the emphasis in encouraging the passing game there have been 6 (or 7 just once) WR's taken in the first round since 2000 only eight times.


Out of the eight times there have been 6 or 7 WR selected in the first round, five of those year had picks after #28...and one just one pick ahead at #27...

2001 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2001)- #30
2004 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2004)- (the only year with 7 1st rounders) - #29 & #31
2005 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2005)- #27
2007 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2007)- #30 & #32
2009 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2009)- #29 & #30
2015 (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2015)- #29


Yes, the Diggs trade changes the landscape somewhat for the Bills....but not that much. They were always going to get one of the top 7 WR's (and probably one of the top six) even if they stayed at #28.

Now, the Bills can move up and (if they like him enough) to get one of the top three. One of the top 5 is almost a sure thing (if they want him).

In any event, I strongly suspect that the reality of teams spending valuable draft capital on several premium positions, there will almost assuredly NOT be 7 WR selected before #28....and it's likely that there will not be 7 taken in the first round. Although with their year's crop, it would be no surprise.

[Historian]

Now, the Bills can move up and (if they like him enough) to get one of the top three. One of the top 5 is almost a sure thing (if they want him).

In any event, I strongly suspect that the reality of teams spending valuable draft capital on several premium positions, there will almost assuredly NOT be 7 WR selected before #28....and it's likely that there will not be 7 taken in the first round. Although with their year's crop, it would be no surprise.

I hate that term Nota.

"A sure thing"

Perry Tuttle was "a sure thing"

Sammy Watkins was "a sure thing".

I hate moving way up for a wide receiver. We don't need another diva.

Move into the high teens and take the receiver you think has the best work ethic.

[notacon]

I hate that term Nota.

"A sure thing"

Perry Tuttle was "a sure thing"

Sammy Watkins was "a sure thing".

I hate moving way up for a wide receiver. We don't need another diva.

Move into the high teens and take the receiver you think has the best work ethic.

Except I did not say that any WR the Bills pick is a "sure thing" as in success in the NFL.

What I ACTUALLY said was that the Bills being in a position to DRAFT one of the "TOP 5" WR's is "almost a sure thing". That is not even a very controversial premise. It's a fact.

I have no opinion on if it's good to move "way up" for a WR, or even if that is necessary.

What is critical is to draft the player that fits into their offense scheme, and the other players on the offense, and how he is developed.

I have a lot of confidence that the Bills organization (and it take the FULL organization) to accomplish these goals.

[Woodman]

defense defense defense ..... fool everybody.

[TheConsigliere]

defense defense defense ..... fool everybody.
No doubt the Bills would love to draft an elite 1DT however they really have to address the #1 WR position first.

[TheConsigliere]

TEST

[kgun12]

Like I said in another thread, a couple teams have multiple picks in the second and third rounds. If there isn’t a player that the Bills love, I propose something like this.
Offer a team like Washington our 28, 128, 134, and 144 pick.
In return the Bills get their 36 & 67 picks.
That give us 2 2nds and a 3rd.
They could definitely get a DT, S, DE or a couple of these positions or maybe a C and I think in the the top 6-8 picks in the second round the Bills could still get a quality WR. A lot of great receivers aren’t draft in the first round. Carolina has multiple 2nds as well.
The biggest problem is Bean isn’t that patient, lol!

[TheConsigliere]

Like I said in another thread, a couple teams have multiple picks in the second and third rounds. If there isn’t a player that the Bills love, I propose something like this.
Offer a team like Washington our 28, 128, 134, and 144 pick.
In return the Bills get their 36 & 67 picks.
That give us 2 2nds and a 3rd.
They could definitely get a DT, S, DE or a couple of these positions or maybe a C and I think in the the top 6-8 picks in the second round the Bills could still get a quality WR. A lot of great receivers aren’t draft in the first round. Carolina has multiple 2nds as well.
The biggest problem is Bean isn’t that patient, lol!

What do you suggest we do for a #1 WR?

[kgun12]

What do you suggest we do for a #1 WR?

Well I disagree with your thinking about the run on receivers. I actually think a couple will fall to the second round. If not there is the June1 money from White that kicks in and a trade then is possible or there might be a James Lofton type cut in June. But here’s the other side of it. KC has won two SB’s without a true #1 Wr. Yes you can says it’s Kelce and fair point, hopefully we see the same growth in year two as year one from Kincaid. Can you name the great wr’s the Patriots had in their 6 SB wins? Again they had a WB and TE.

[kgun12]

Here’s the flip side to it, if there is a run on receivers like you think, there will be other positions of need available to the Bills at 28.
I saw one of the shows on the NFL Network and they said every year there really is rarely more than 15 true draftees that actually get a first round draft grade. So like I said if there isn’t a player there the Bills truly want or grades out as a number one, trade back. To do this they aren’t get more picks because they would need to throw in some later round picks to make it work, they’re just get more quality higher round picks.

[kgun12]

To my point of the Bills not going WR, saw this article.

Buffalo Bills Mock Draft Roundup, April 4 edition All are at #28

Ryan Wilson (CBS Sports): Chop Robinson, DE (Penn State)
Chris Trepasso (CBS Sports): Ladd McConkey, WR (Georgia)
Keff Ciardello (Pro Football Network): Johnny Newton, DL (Illinois)
Eric Edholm (NFL.com): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Lance Zierlein: (NFL.com): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Ben Standig: (The Athletic): Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Danny Kelly: (The Ringer): Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)
Bleacher Report Scouting Department: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)
Nick Wright (Fox Sports): Tyler Nubin, S (Minnesota)

[notacon]

Mock drafts are fun. If one gets one third correct (player to team) in the first round they are considered stellar.

I looked up "how accurate NFL mock drafts are" and came up with this interesting score card (https://www.thehuddlereport.com/mock.scores.shtml).

It's a two tiered scoring system. You get ONE point for "players placed in the first round"....that is relatively easy.

Most of the mocks they scored got 26 or 27 correct.

Matching a player to a team in the first round is more difficult, hence one get TWO points for that.

The #1 (tied) score for 2023 was 45 points by Sean Green - Sports Gambling Podcast,. 25 points for correctly mocking players that were selected in the first round, and twenty points by matching 1st round pick with the team. He did that 10 out of 31. Pretty impressive.

Some notable misses was CJ Stroud at #7 to Raiders, and Will Levis #4 to Colts (he went #34 to Tenn). His worst miss was Hendon Hooker #19 to Tampa. He went in the THIRD round. #68 to Detroit.

Green had Kincaid going #18 to Detroit (instead of #25 to Buffalo) and the Bills selecting Myles Murphy DE at #27 . He was close...Murphy went #28 to Cincy.

You can check out his 2023 Mock here (https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2023/04/24/2023-nfl-mock-draft-sean-green/), and the actual 2023 draft here (http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2023).

Not to crap on Mr. Green. It's very difficult to hit 10 1st round picks spot on. What I find most useful with mock drafts is where the (general) consensus is for certain players (especially in the top 10 or 15 picks) and the (general) consensus of player position for each team.

[notacon]

On to what is expected with the Bils draft this year.

The (general) consensus for the Top WR's this year are Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. It starts fracturing after that but generally you see the same names although the expected draft positions may vary.

Brain Thoms Jr.
Keon Coleman
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin

That's eight WR's which the Bills almost undoubtedly will be in a position to select....if that is what they deem best to do for the team.

Always a possibility is that another area of need...EDGE, DT, S....may have an irresistible prospect drop. Although S does not seem to have any worthwhile 1st round prospects, there are may be an EDGE or DT's worth it....but it's doubtful.

The Bills management and coaching organizations have their work cut out for them.

Everything is pointing toward the Bills going after WR's. Not just in the first round either. They basically OVERTURNED the whole position and rightfully so. We have one of the best QB's in the NFL (I opine the second best) who has a cannon for an arm, is tough, can run and IS the path to a SB.


We have a exciting RB (who can catch the ball)and two TE's in the fold...one (Kincaid) looks like he could develop into the best TE to ever put a Bills uniform on. Shakir looks lie he is ready to explode and has sure hands (86% catch % for the season including playoffs....he catch all but EIGHT of the 57 passes he was targeted with. WR needed an upgrade. Curtis Samuel is a good start.

What is interesting is ESPN's Matt Miller, detailing the prospects that deserve a "first-round grade" (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps) Some positions have none....RB, IOL, LB and S.

Positions with one - DT & TE.

Two have two - CB & EDGE

One has three - QB

One has four - OT

One, and the most with FIVE is WR...

Marvin Harrison Jr
Rome Odunze
Malik Nabers
Brain Thoms
Adonai Mitchell

Dane Brugler of The Athletic provides his annual "Top 100" draft prospects (https://theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/).

Only two positions have more than ten in the top 100.

EDGE with eleven.

WR with a whopping SEVENTEEN.

It's little wonder why the Bills cleaned house of WR. The Bills can strengthen the WR postilion for both the short trem and long trem this draft.

They need to nail it!!!

[kgun12]

What if it's the Bills turn to pick and a couple of these guys are available, who do you take? or maybe the better question is which one of these guys would you want?

I've seen drafts with all of them being taken by the Bills at #28 in different drafts.

C Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Thomas Jr, WR Mitchell, WR McConkey or DL Jer'Zhan Newton and Chop Robinson.

I think I would take C Jackson Powers-Johnson or Thomas Jr only because of need, but I'm a O-line always draft guy. Then you put Power-Johnson at C, then McGovern stays at G extend Brown next season and we have really good a O-line for a long time!

[TheConsigliere]

What if it's the Bills turn to pick and a couple of these guys are available, who do you take? or maybe the better question is which one of these guys would you want?

I've seen drafts with all of them being taken by the Bills at #28 in different drafts.

C Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Thomas Jr, WR Mitchell, WR McConkey or DL Jer'Zhan Newton and Chop Robinson.

I think I would take C Jackson Powers-Johnson or Thomas Jr only because of need, but I'm a O-line always draft guy. Then you put Power-Johnson at C, then McGovern stays at G extend Brown next season and we have really good a O-line for a long time!

Definitely the Center.

[DetoxTent]

WITH THE DIGGS TRADE -- PLEASE IGNORE THIS NOW OUTDATED MOCK

Ignored it before the trade

[DetoxTent]

Adonai Mitchell

Look at this player. WR. Could be had at #28.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.espn.com/core/video/iframe/_/id/39869825/endcard/false" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0"></iframe>


WR Adonai Mitchell (https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4597500/adonai-mitchell) to the Bills (https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills)


Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205


College: Texas


Where Buffalo could get him: Pick No. 28


With the Bills trading away (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39866413/sources-bills-finalizing-trade-star-wr-stefon-diggs-texans) No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/2976212/stefon-diggs) to the Texans earlier this week, the club can get younger at the position with Mitchell, an explosive-play target with high-end traits. In Buffalo's offense, Mitchell can be set up as a vertical option for quarterback Josh Allen (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3918298/josh-allen), using his 4.34-second 40-yard dash speed, 39.5-inch vertical and ball skills to win down the field. Plus, he has the toughness to produce after the catch on middle-of-the-field play-action throws, which will allow Allen to rip the ball between the numbers on in-breakers.

In his final season at Texas, Mitchell posted 11 explosive play receptions (catches of 20 or more yards), and he averaged 15.4 yards per catch. The arrow is pointing up on Mitchell, who can develop his route skills in a pro offense.

LINK (https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39862912/2024-nfl-draft-favorite-team-fits-20-top-prospects-daniels-nabers-odunze-mccarthy)

[DetoxTent]

On to what is expected with the Bils draft this year.
The (general) consensus for the Top WR's this year are Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. It starts fracturing after that but generally you see the same names although the expected draft positions may vary.

Brain Thoms Jr.
Keon Coleman
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin
That's eight WR's which the Bills almost undoubtedly will be in a position to select....if that is what they deem best to do for the team.


This is why they don't have to move up. So if they do, it will be for someone they definitely love for this team. Will be interesting to watch.

[Canadian'eh!]

A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

You should check more than just Walter Football then.

They might call him a 2nd-3rd, but most everyone else has him as a high of 4th to 6th range.

[Canadian'eh!]

Myself and Sammy Watkins thank you for the history lesson.

The past is all well and good however the NFL game has become much more of a passing game each and every year and the consensus is that this a deep draft for WRs.

Those 7 WRs are going to be drafted early and often in the 1st round before the Bills draft at 28th.

Count on it.

I don’t think you can “count” on 7 WRs going before the Bills.

[TheConsigliere]

I don’t think you can “count” on 7 WRs going before the Bills.

Who is counting?

I hope NO WRs are drafted BEFORE the Bills draft in the 1st.

[Woodman]

Who is counting?

I hope NO WRs are drafted BEFORE the Bills draft in the 1st.

We might need to move up to 9th overall. :idunno:

[notacon]

This is why they don't have to move up. So if they do, it will be for someone they definitely love for this team. Will be interesting to watch.

I agree. "Have to" and "want to" are two totally different things.

But they still might to grab one of the Top 3.

Like last year they may move up a few spots "for someone they definitely love for this team" to go in front of a team they believe has their eye on him.

You bet your ass "Will be interesting to watch" It is astounding the see how the NFL has made the draft "must see" TV. I'll be glued to the TV for the first two rounds for sure.

The Athletic published an interesting analysis from their beat writers of "the biggest remaining needs for all 32 NFL teams (https://theathletic.com/5389366/2024/04/05/nfl-team-needs-offseason-draft-depth-chart/?source=scoopcity_newsletter&campaign=9443727&userId=13460465)"

Only three teams are presented with WR their "biggest need".

Arizona
LA Chargers
Buffalo Bills

Notably, those other teams have much higher draft positions than the Bills.

Of course this does not mean that other teams will pass on WR's because it's not their "biggest need". Much depends on their draft board and the likelihood of getting their highest graded player.

It would be amazing to actually see the Bills draft board. A secret more closely kept than a certain presidential candidate tax returns.

[Oaf]

KC is licking their chops to jump in front of us and take their best WR on the board. Everyone knows Bills need a WR, even before Diggs, so OBD may have to pay even more to trade up or better have backup prospects at 28.

[kgun12]

KC is licking their chops to jump in front of us and take their best WR on the board. Everyone knows Bills need a WR, even before Diggs, so OBD may have to pay even more to trade up or better have backup prospects at 28.

Nope, just like dealing with the cap, cutting players, and trading Diggs the Bills have no plans or backup plans for the draft. They just shoot from the hip.

[TheConsigliere]

Nope, just like dealing with the cap, cutting players, and trading Diggs the Bills have no plans or backup plans for the draft. They just shoot from the hip.

Kgun -- Did you see this?



T’Vondre Sweat arrested by APD, faces DWI charge


https://www.kxan.com/sports-general/horns-report/tvondre-sweat-arrested-by-apd-faces-dwi-charge/


AUSTIN (KXAN) — Former Texas football player T’Vondre Sweat was booked into Travis County Jail on Sunday and charged with driving while intoxicated, according to jail records.
Records show Sweat, 22, was arrested by the Austin Police Department and booked into Travis County Jail at 2:12 p.m. Sunday. Driving while intoxicated is a Class B misdemeanor. Sweat posted a $3,000 bond and was released from custody shortly after he was booked....






https://twitter.com/RemadnaKXAN/status/1777065019009564799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1777065019009564799%7Ctwgr%5E9d580977785dd0dbaa742f3461c2d062b1f7f292%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twobillsdrive.com%2Fcommunity%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FRemadnaKXAN%2Fstatus%2F1777065019009564799%3Ft%3D8-kDW9TyusAQUalHr-6eog26s%3D19








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(https://twitter.com/RemadnaKXAN)








Nabil Brent Remadna KXAN


(https://twitter.com/RemadnaKXAN)

@RemadnaKXAN
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T'Vondre Sweat, former Texas Longhorns DL, arrested, faces DWI charge. #Tvondre (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tvondre?src=hashtag_click)#Sweat (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sweat?src=hashtag_click)#UTfootball (https://twitter.com/hashtag/UTfootball?src=hashtag_click) more on ⁦@KXAN_News (https://twitter.com/KXAN_News)
⁩




https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1777064815338422274/CAlJ3bOY?format=jpg&name=small


T’Vondre Sweat arrested by APD, faces DWI charge


(https://t.co/jXaKBoXM2c)


From kxan.com (https://t.co/jXaKBoXM2c)

[kgun12]

I did! I was joking as to how much alcohol a man his size has to drink to actually feel the effects of it, lol! I don’t think it will hurt him draft wise that much, but enough to where he might be available in the second or maybe the third round.

I still think he’s going to be a good one!

[notacon]

This is why they don't have to move up. So if they do, it will be for someone they definitely love for this team. Will be interesting to watch.


BTW...it's just as likely the Bills will move BACK than it is they move UP.

This draft is rich with WR's. Moving back (and still getting their guy) could be in the cards. We'll find out in a a little more than two weeks.

[Bill Cody]

I did! I was joking as to how much alcohol a man his size has to drink to actually feel the effects of it, lol! I don’t think it will hurt him draft wise that much, but enough to where he might be available in the second or maybe the third round.

I still think he’s going to be a good one!

Agree. The dwi is good news. Now we get him in round 3.

[TheConsigliere]

Agree. The dwi is good news. Now we get him in round 3.

If we had a 3rd round pick which we don’t.

[Bill Cody]

If we had a 3rd round pick which we don’t.

Yet

rd 1 Adonai Mitchell
rd 2 trade down for extra 3rd
2nd 3rd use on "give me page 3 of the menu and a case of Bud Light" Sweat

[Mad Max]

Kgun -- Did you see this?



T’Vondre Sweat arrested by APD, faces DWI charge


https://www.kxan.com/sports-general/horns-report/tvondre-sweat-arrested-by-apd-faces-dwi-charge/


AUSTIN (KXAN) — Former Texas football player T’Vondre Sweat was booked into Travis County Jail on Sunday and charged with driving while intoxicated, according to jail records.
Records show Sweat, 22, was arrested by the Austin Police Department and booked into Travis County Jail at 2:12 p.m. Sunday. Driving while intoxicated is a Class B misdemeanor. Sweat posted a $3,000 bond and was released from custody shortly after he was booked....
https://twitter.com/RemadnaKXAN/status/1777065019009564799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1777065019009564799%7Ctwgr%5E9d580977785dd0dbaa742f3461c2d062b1f7f292%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twobillsdrive.com%2Fcommunity%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FRemadnaKXAN%2Fstatus%2F1777065019009564799%3Ft%3D8-kDW9TyusAQUalHr-6eog26s%3D19
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1769963356239114240/_bmO5IGA_x96.jpg



(https://twitter.com/RemadnaKXAN)
Nabil Brent Remadna KXAN
(https://twitter.com/RemadnaKXAN)@RemadnaKXAN
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T'Vondre Sweat, former Texas Longhorns DL, arrested, faces DWI charge. #Tvondre (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tvondre?src=hashtag_click)#Sweat (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sweat?src=hashtag_click)#UTfootball (https://twitter.com/hashtag/UTfootball?src=hashtag_click) more on ⁦@KXAN_News (https://twitter.com/KXAN_News)

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1777064815338422274/CAlJ3bOY?format=jpg&name=small

T’Vondre Sweat arrested by APD, faces DWI charge
(https://t.co/jXaKBoXM2c)From kxan.com (https://t.co/jXaKBoXM2c)



I hope this doesn’t exclude him from consideration for the Bills. They do have this unwritten “character” requirement in their players.
Unfortunately I don’t think this will drop his stock much and we’d definitely have to get him in the second.
I’m starting to really like the thought of him in the second though. He’s got Ted Washington vibes and could do some damage with Ed O.

First round WR, second round Sweat ?

[kgun12]

I hope this doesn’t exclude him from consideration for the Bills. They do have this unwritten “character” requirement in their players.
Unfortunately I don’t think this will drop his stock much and we’d definitely have to get him in the second.
I’m starting to really like the thought of him in the second though. He’s got Ted Washington vibes and could do some damage with Ed O.

First round WR, second round Sweat ?

I wouldn’t mind Sweat in the 2nd.

[TheConsigliere]

I wouldn’t mind Sweat in the 2nd.

A lot of character risk with that pick.

[kgun12]

A lot of character risk with that pick.

Really? He has other legal issues I’m not aware of?

[TheConsigliere]

Really? He has other legal issues I’m not aware of?

NOT that I am aware of.

Just a 360+ lb drunk.

That is all.

[kgun12]

NOT that I am aware of.

Just a 360+ lb drunk.

That is all.

So one incident? I’ve already showed you that your source for his weight was trying to sensationalize it. He played at 366 all year and unanimously won the Outland trophy this year. You really need to read more than one source and/or watch this kid play. He is a beast with a high motor. BTW, the Longhorns even used him on offense and catch a TD pass. Not bad for an overweight drunk!

[TheConsigliere]

So one incident? I’ve already showed you that your source for his weight was trying to sensationalize it. He played at 366 all year and unanimously won the Outland trophy this year. You really need to read more than one source and/or watch this kid play. He is a beast with a high motor. BTW, the Longhorns even used him on offense and catch a TD pass. Not bad for an overweight drunk!

How old is he now?

21?

22?

What happens when a 366 lb man reaches 30?

[Mad Max]

How old is he now?

21?

22?

What happens when a 366 lb man reaches 30?

Even though he carries the weight well, it is a legitimate risk. He went to UT as a 249 lb DE and is now a 360 plus DT.

IF he can stay at the current weight or drop a few pounds he has a chance to be very good/great in the NFL.

He could also Mike Williams his way out of the league.

As a second round pick in an area of need I’d take that chance every single time (as opposed to the number four overall buffoonery when Mckinneie was available with Mike Williams).

[sukie]

How old is he now?

21?

22?

What happens when a 366 lb man reaches 30?
Oh oh OH! Let me guess… you hit on him at a pub?

[TheConsigliere]

Oh oh OH! Let me guess… you hit on him at a pub?

You might have the behind to take on a man of his size butt I do not.

[kgun12]

Even though he carries the weight well, it is a legitimate risk. He went to UT as a 249 lb DE and is now a 360 plus DT.

IF he can stay at the current weight or drop a few pounds he has a chance to be very good/great in the NFL.

He could also Mike Williams his way out of the league.

As a second round pick in an area of need I’d take that chance every single time (as opposed to the number four overall buffoonery when Mckinneie was available with Mike Williams).

Don’t forget William (Refrigerator) Perry was a pretty successful big man!

[kgun12]

You might have the behind to take on a man of his size butt I do not.

You’re right why would a team want a very large athletic man to plug up the middle, that would be silly!

[Woodman]

You’re right why would a team want a very large athletic man to plug up the middle, that would be silly!

I'll take two. :cheers:

[Mad Max]

Don’t forget William (Refrigerator) Perry was a pretty successful big man!

Perry was terrific as was Pat Williams but with these big guys there’s always a real risk that they eat themselves into oblivion.

We always say things like “all we’ll need is for him to drop 35 pounds and get on the NFL diet and strength program”.

The problem is that doesn’t always work and the guy gains weight instead of losing it.

I’d still take the risk but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist and is substantial.

[Bill Cody]

How old is he now?

21?

22?

What happens when a 366 lb man reaches 30?

He gets traded to the Bears?

[TheConsigliere]

He gets traded to the Bears?

I would love a huge 1DT next to Ed Oliver.

However, when a college player gains so much weight and now weighs 366 lbs, you can’t say there is not a legitimate risk in drafting him.

[DetoxTent]

I would love a huge 1DT next to Ed Oliver.
However, when a college player gains so much weight and now weighs 366 lbs, you can’t say there is not a legitimate risk in drafting him.

Big risk. Fat men are a different type of athlete and have to be managed differently by the trainers than anyone else on a football team.

[DetoxTent]

While the team may want to see the fat guys stay fat and strong up top, the trainers want to keep them jogging every day to keep their endurance where it needs to be. Nothing worse that seeing Ted Washington panting on the sideline at the end of the first quarter.

[TheConsigliere]

While the team may want to see the fat guys stay fat and strong up top, the trainers want to keep them jogging every day to keep their endurance where it needs to be. Nothing worse that seeing Ted Washington panting on the sideline at the end of the first quarter.
True.

[TheConsigliere]

Tough to get a read on what the Bills are thinking after trading Diggs.

[daryls61]

Spiked, are you going to re-do your draft? Only 1 day left!

[kgun12]

Tough to get a read on what the Bills are thinking after trading Diggs.

Sure is, could be a fun draft if they don’t use all their draft capitol moving up!

[TheConsigliere]

Spiked, are you going to re-do your draft? Only 1 day left!

If my schedule permits.

[Bill Cody]

I would love a huge 1DT next to Ed Oliver.

However, when a college player gains so much weight and now weighs 366 lbs, you can’t say there is not a legitimate risk in drafting him.

He can drop that weight no Sweat

[TheConsigliere]

He can drop that weight no Sweat

I find your attempt at comedy always refreshing.

[Mad Max]

I find your attempt at comedy always refreshing.

He sure is punny.

[kgun12]

I find your attempt at comedy always refreshing.

I have no beef with it!

[TheConsigliere]

THE FAMILY’S UPDATED BILLS’S MOCK DRAFT



@28th (NO Trade Up or Down) — Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU (https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2024BThomas.php)http://www.billszone.com/college/LSU_logo.gif


This may be more hope than reality however I have seen more mocks where 7 WRs are NOT drafted before the Bills draft @28th and that Thomas may be the 4th WR drafted this late.

If so, GREAT!!!

Thomas has the size to be a true #1 WR in the NFL whereas many of the other WRs are smaller and more suited to be Slot Receivers with #2 WR ceilings.

Let’s hope he is there this late and that NO trade up is necessary to draft him.




@60th (NO Trade Up or Down) — https://walterfootball.com/college/Duke_logo.gifGraham Barton (https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2024GBarton.php), C/OT/G, Duke


I think Jackson Powers-Johnson is gone by then.

Personally, I like Barton better as a Center and with his versatility, if he is NOT ready to start at Center on day one, he could start at one of the Guard or Tackle positions if he is the better option or there is an injury to a OL Starter.

I do see Barton as an eventual Pro Bowl Center.




I will give some thought to our two 4th round picks, three 5th round picks and fliers later today.

[TheConsigliere]

<<<BUMP>>>

:mbb:

[TheConsigliere]

Thoughts?

[sahlensguy]

Thoughts?

After Shaq Lawson's not so serious shoulder injury that was surgically repaired after the draft anyway, I'm out on BTJ in the 1st

[TheConsigliere]

After Shaq Lawson's not so serious shoulder injury that was surgically repaired after the draft anyway, I'm out on BTJ in the 1st

Huh?

[TheConsigliere]

Looks this is THE winning Bills Mock Draft

[Bill Cody]

Looks this is THE winning Bills Mock Draft

Yeah I'm on board:bf1:

[Bill Cody]

I find your attempt at comedy always refreshing.

I agree that's all it is, an attempt lol